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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories must be hoping that the newly created elected mayor
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories must be hoping that the newly created elected mayoralties will lead to some CON victories
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Comments
Hopefully eternal hellfire* won't await you!
[*oblique reference to the overnight thread!]
This is a LOCAL mayor for LOCAL people! There's nothing for YOU here!
[oblique reference to The League of Gentlemen - Royston Vasey stylee]
On a note from another thread, I was reminded of the great work of the RNLI
Donated £25. Their daily rescue tally is extraordinary
https://rnli.org/news-and-media
They don't accept a penny of tax payer money on principle, what a well deserving cause if you're feeling the festive giving spirit
"Why on earth do Lewisham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney need a mayor when there is one for London proper ?"
Because the powers of London boroughs are totally different from the Greater London Authority.
Remember that Maggie was able to abolish the GLC in the 80s and let the boroughs run everything. It was Labour that created the new set-up in 2000
If you look at your political betting winnings and work out how much time you spend on it then you are getting nowhere near the minimum wage.
I plan a thread during the holidays on the betting year and how people did.
Nor will it particularly matter if the Tories don't make much of an impact in the mayoralities as long as they do well in the county council, Scottish and Welsh local elections.
Screw the unelected and mandateless buggers.
An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?
My reading is that, of course, "hellfire" is an allegorical reference to the earth's molten magma lying beneath the crust, and of course is visible to humans during volcanic activity.
But is there any evidence that humans actually take a voyage into the magma when they die?
However, as they now seem to want to extend the role of city-region mayor to rural areas without a city, this may provide another path to victory.
N.B. Tees Valley is a city-region without a city; just Darlo, Hartlepool, Stockton and a small town in Yorkshire.
Why half* of County Durham and a chunk of the North Riding should be lumped together I have no idea.
(* OK, less than half)
On football I am about £6000 up, but mostly on my £1 ew at 3000/1 on Leicester winning the league.
Domestically, I have not done badly either, and look to be able to ride out the Brexit storms well. Come rain or shine, Doctors are in demand, and soon I can cash out of the NHS, and Locum in the Gulf or Antipodes with my pension back up.
Its been a good year.
Humbug.
Just imagine if Steve Rotherham is a real success in Liverpool come 2020 people might see him as a potential Labour leader.
Or when Mrs May stands down people might look to Ruth Davidson as her successor .
In the former case, the marginal cost of betting (assuming stake not lost!) was effectively zero. There was some fear involved in going into a betting shop and there was some difficulty in moving the money around, but those weren't big things
In the latter case, the opportunity cost of betting (ditto!) was effectively zero: I wasn't planning on doing anything renumerative with my time otherwise.
is there any evidence that humans actually take a voyage into the magma when they die?
Yes.
But they only go about the first six feet.
PM
LoO
CoE
FSec
Health Sec
FM (devolved)
Well done Mr Geo Osborne.
Anyway they are elected. By companies
A metro mayor on the other hand is a way to devolve strategic powers that would otherwise be held by central government. In this way it is a considerably more important position.
These two types of mayoralties shouldn't really be confused as done in this thread.
Another thing I should point out, these new metro mayors are not necessarily as powerful as they seem. For instance GM wrangled a deal with Osbourne so that the council leaders have a majority veto on the Mayor. They didn't want a Mayor to get the powers, and didn't want another tier of government like the GLA, but this was the compromise they made to provide scrutiny.
I don't agree with him on this, but he's a big insight loss.
However, you can't deny that it is a city-region lacking a city.
That gambling profits are tax free is particularly nice.
That is true - that I cannot and will not attempt to deny!
Thank God for Betfair going OTT on Marco Rubio after Iowa otherwise I would have been going to the poor house.
EU Referendum night was profitable was amazed that I called it for Leave after Sunderland and yet the markets and pundits still thought Remain was on course.
Theresa May becoming PM was profitable, having tipped her at 16/1 back in 2013.
Following Mike on the spreads re Hillary was profitable too, wrongest market has to be the popular vote winner, even on the 10th of November.
Big shout out to Henry G and Tissue Price who tipped Khan and Goldsmith to win at 33/1 and 22/1.
Going forward, if David Miliband becomes the next Labour leader then that will be sub optimal.
"And now for a world government
Gideon Rachman"
https://www.ft.com/content/7a03e5b6-c541-11dd-b516-000077b07658
2008 +5.61
2009 +0
2010 -140.00 (Casino lol)
2011 +0.00
2012 +218.64
2013 +410.23
2014 +247.44
2015 +1414.79
2016 +3586.79
Worst bet of the year? Leicester to win the league again 33/1 £50, though my 80/1 £50 on Leicester to win the Champions League is still alive. In mitigation both were re-investment of last years winnings...
Clinton to win Arkansas
Macron heads approval rating for French politicians - ahead of Fillon.
https://twitter.com/Ed_Crooks/status/811191523316535296
That said, in effect, the IDS-Howard succession was as near as makes no difference a Magic Circle arrangement, which PB missed by only a year, and something similar could happen again.
@williamglenn
"It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway."
I lost on the spurs choke for the same reasons you won ☺️
Reminds me of when I was working at a spread betting company and a client wanted to sell the goals at 5 to close, when the score was 3-2 in the last minute.
Is one of the reasons why I like the Tory party, we have no compunction in removing poorly performing leaders.
I remember the night IDS was toppled, I think it was Francis Maude on tv saying it was only after IDS had lost the vote of no confidence that the parliamentary party decided on Michael Howard and there was no planning beforehand.
He said it with a straight face.
Pakistan was probably a 1000-1 shot at the start of their 4th innings vs Australia, England with 20 overs to go today 8 down and 84 behind with India having an innings in hand errm were not !
Next year isn't likely to provide the same sort of profits unless we have a GE, simply because I'm largely reliant on betfair to get on.
Going forward my Next French President book is a bit ugly but my Next Labour Leader book is looking very tidy.
Thanks to everyone on here, especially those who tip winners! A Merry Christmas to Remainers, Leavers, Kippers, Cameroons, Corbynites and Nats alike! [And anyone else...]
Fillon odds on and Macron 6-7/1?
I owe you £20 for a bet on Ed Miliband getting 50%+ in Doncaster at the GE... send me your deets!
My most satisfying betting moment, however, was tipping the SNP not to get an overall majority in Holyrood on the morning of the election at 8/1 and being told by all the Scots on the thread that it was money down the drain.
Long range forecast
RodCrosby said:
At this juncture, I may as well give you my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
MOE, who knows?
But the GOP are in pole position.
He also backed and said he backed Trump around this point, I remember well as Trump was ~ 6.0 or so for POTUS. I listened to Malcolm G on that one, bit annoyed with myself for that.
Take a look through the threads around this time.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/20/first-post-eu-deal-referendum-poll-has-remain-with-15-lead/
No South Carolina explicit thread - a shame.
RodCrosby said:
At this juncture, I may as well give you my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
MOE, who knows?
But the GOP are in pole position."
Not really an impressive forecast, massively overstated the REP electoral and popular vote.
Revealed: firearms seized in the European Union between 2010 and early 2015. https://t.co/QEfUi7FJGy
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/20/not-long-now-till-we-know-what-boris-will-do/
Anyway closer to the time:
"COMMENTARY: ***FURTHER TIGHTENING 7/11/16***
Polls continue to tighten, generally in Trump's favour....
A small systematic error, and Trump is the 45th President. I believe the chance of such error is high.
INTERESTING FACT: you have to go back to 1904 to find a swing in favour of a two-term (or more) incumbent party, and that was under a sitting president, Teddy Roosevelt. The median swing against is about 5%, the lowest 1.2% in 1944, against FDR. The lowest swing against the incumbent party in an open election was 3.9% in 1928. Clinton is no FDR or Bull Moose, so perhaps the polls are wrong...
Basically, if there's a 2% shy-Trump factor (i.e. +1% versus Clinton, not at all outlandish), he's one state - any state - away from victory. If the shy-Trump factor is 2.5%, then toss a coin...
ENDORA still not quite the done-deal for President, methinks... (^_-)"