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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is it Darkest before the Dawn? A look at the battle for the House of Representatives in 2018.
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I do wonder if the GOPers in the House will be hit by a double whammy
1) Any Trump unpopularity impacting on them
2) Loss of support from Trumpers if GOPers in the House start to criticise/recoil from Trump
Nice header, thanks. But the repeal of Obamacare is not just a potential vote loser as you imply. My premiums were set to increase a total of $11,000 dollars this year (~50% increase). But my insurer decided at the last moment to withdraw from this market. That has left me with taking what insurance I could get at the last minute (not to mention all the headaches of finding a good plan, and the anxiety of getting one in time before enrollment closes). The net net is that my health insurance premiums are set to increase by $20,000 this year, or 83%.
There are a lot of people like me who believe that Obamacare cannot survive in its present trajectory and so must be reformed.
Two years is "quite a while" in politics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lj127TKu4Q
I said 'most likely', not 'it is a cast iron law of the universe'.
But if it is dismantled without a replacement, I think Trump will be blamed.
We have a house in America, and we know a terrific lady who babysits for us from time-to-time. Her husband was a machinist, who lost his job (maybe due to NAFTA), and is now a sheriff.
They voted Trump. But the one area where they are most scared is healthcare. They've seen spiralling health care premiums (they have an adult son who was left with brain damage after an assault), and they are scared.
If Obamacare goes, and there is no affordable replacement, I can't see them voting for him again.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kennedy
The Republicans will be mad if they tackle Medicare it's the only option for millions of retirees who insurers will not touch. Ryan will be dragged out of Congress and shot by other Republicans if he gets anywhere near to it.
The problem is the Republicans are trapped into competing for ever more right wing positions to win over activists in their gerrymandered voting districts with few middle of the road voters to win over.
Hence the ever increasing anti-abortion tactics in various states will eventually damage them with women voters. Many states have made it almost impossible for abortion clinics to operate with onerous inspection standards and sudden mandating for operating theatre facilities,
Many states are down to one or two planned parenthood centres ( which do far more than abortions). Donald trumps answer to this has been a women can just travel to another state!!
Then there are other nut jobs who keep popping up with other rules. One popular one is enforced ultrasound deep into the Uterus where medical staff are required by law to desribe the heart it's limbs and organs etc before they can ho ahead with an abortion. It is not surprisingly considered quite traumatic and is often described as medical rape.
Now the extremists keep popping up with proposals for all foetal deaths that occur outside hospitals to be subject to criminal investigation. These have been slapped down, so far because it would mean every woman who had a miss carriage being treated as a criminal.
There's loads of you tube clips of this because don't believe for a second they will be happy over turning Rode V Wade they'll use conditional access to federal funds to crush abortion where ever they can.
But the really big one coming up will be the First Amendment Defence Act. Which is promoted as freedom for people to act in a discriminating way against people if it is against their religious beliefs.
Anti women or gay rights groups like to use example of refusing to bake a cake for a gay wedding but the real meat is cases where hospitals have refused to treat gay people or their children, or pharmacies refusing to give the morning after pill. It also removes protection for gay people for being fired.
etc etc. The bill is drawn quite widely and includes any government organisation and private corporations.
In the long term this could all prove quite toxic for the party and I'm not sure how continuing with the culture war will make America great again or revive lower middle class incomes and the rust belt states.
When I arrived in the US in 2000, my premiums were $88 per month. I know I was younger, single and healthier then, but now for the wife and I (no kids on the policy) it is $2100 per month, i.e. a 2500% increase in 17 years.
To me, if you want universal health coverage, coverage for the poor has to come from taxation not from transfers from overcharging those who do pay, particularly the healthy young.
Suburban white voters are the key for Dems to overcome the 4% bonus Reps have in the house. As Tim has said if Obama care is reformed then the house majority could be safe. The Dems should forget about trying to win back wwc voters they either won't vote or will be loyal to Republicans for now, of course they should try to keep the wwc they have left tho.
The internet can be a dark, dark place.
"The smug style in American liberalism
by Emmett Rensin on April 21, 2016
There is a smug style in American liberalism. It has been growing these past decades. It is a way of conducting politics, predicated on the belief that American life is not divided by moral difference or policy divergence — not really — but by the failure of half the country to know what's good for them.
In 2016, the smug style has found expression in media and in policy, in the attitudes of liberals both visible and private, providing a foundational set of assumptions above which a great number of liberals comport their understanding of the world.
It has led an American ideology hitherto responsible for a great share of the good accomplished over the past century of our political life to a posture of reaction and disrespect: a condescending, defensive sneer toward any person or movement outside of its consensus, dressed up as a monopoly on reason."
http://www.vox.com/2016/4/21/11451378/smug-american-liberalism
In part, I think it is also a product of behavioural economics - the idea of the irrational economic man. The book Nudge is premised upon the idea that people don't do what is best for them, and hence government should skew the playing field so that the 'default' option is the right one. Obviously, this is premised upon the government knowing what is best for the irrational (read stupid) individual and upon the idea that 'irrational' decisions are indeed irrational.
I long ago gave up trying to afford BUPA (or for that matter any of the so-called budget alternatives), but their present day cost is surely a fraction of the U.S. equivalent.
I can't see this bet with Betfair as the lay odds of 1.11 to which he refers relate to the current position, i.e. as a result of the November elections as confirmed by the rules governing this market:
"Which party will control a majority of House of Representatives seats as a result of the 2016 US House of Representatives elections?"
So there you have it. Faced with a budget that's rising in real-terms and is now back to it's pre-austerity peak level, the SNP managed to come up with this summary:
"The UK Government’s approach to public spending is having a significant detrimental effect in Scotland. Between 2010-11 and 2019-20, the Scottish Government’s Fiscal Departmental Expenditure Limit (DEL) from HM Treasury will fall by over nine per cent in real terms – the equivalent of over £2.8 billion"
So that's taking a figure from the peak forward to a pretty meaningless forecast
https://chokkablog.blogspot.co.id/2016/12/spinning-scottish-budget-part-iii.html
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21711931-trolls-twitter-seem-be-less-numerous-feared-supposed-outpouring-online-hatred
HOPE NOT HATE, a charity that combats extremism, published a report on November 28th purportedly revealing a mass outbreak of online hate-speech after the murder of Jo Cox, a Labour MP, a week before the Brexit referendum in June. In the month after the killing at least 25,000 people sent more than 50,000 tweets celebrating her death or praising her murderer, Thomas Mair, Hope Not Hate said.
Britain’s largest newspapers leapt to publish the shocking findings. The story was shared far and wide. Angela Eagle, a Labour MP, cast its conclusions as “staggering and appalling”......
Yet the story was wrong. An investigation by The Economist has found that Hope Not Hate misrepresented the findings of its own report when first releasing it to the press.
As I understand it, the two main issues in the US are professional insurance for doctors - which can cost them upwards of $250k per year, and the drugs bill which is driven by huge direct-to-consumer marketing. Seriously, more than half of television ads in the US are for prescription drugs!
One example is the appointment of Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State. Some parts of the media going very excited that he was an oily / had done deals in Russia (and maintained a relationship with Putin).
But I suspect that precisely zero of Trump supporters cared about any of those / they can be seen as an advantage ("knows how to get deals done" / "maintaining a friendly relationship is not the same as being friends")
But if we form judgements based on the media - as with the election - you could get it very wrong.
Raymond Kennedy (March 3, 1934 – February 18, 2008) was an American novelist. He was born in Wilbraham, Massachusetts to James Patrick Kennedy and Orise Belanger and was the youngest of three brothers.
The fact that he died in 2008 counts a little against him
Reforming Obamacare is nessecary but impossible to do without reducing cover for many. There will be millions who lose their cover entirely. No matter how you distribute it, the problem is cost. Pre-existing condition cover has allowed many Americans with diabetes or other chronic disease to get cover, people whom a free market in insurance wouldn't touch with a bargepole.
It's very much more than most people's mortgages.
What Trump is saying is that abortion should be a state level right - it's nothing to do with the federal government. If the people of Little Backwater want to ban it, then it should be up to them to do so: the right to terminate an unwanted pregnancy is not an unfettered right of the woman concerned (the unborn child has rights to which must be considered)
Rather like Trump, he will suffer the culture shock of the public sector when people don't just say 'Yes, Sir' and go and do stuff, there being much more process and bureaucracy involved in the decision-making and implementation processes.
In my view, the government should mandate a basic level of insurance for everyone, paid out of federal taxation, but chosen by the individuals and then if individual citizens want to top up their own cover they can do.
Charles said:
Who has opposed provision of healthcare for the chronically sick?
***
Just re-read this thread...
For "dies" read "does"
Sky News understands a series of pilots will be set up in which voters will have to produce a document such as a driving licence, passport or utility bill to prove their identity.
Ministers have decided to adopt a series of recommendations contained in a hard-hitting report by former cabinet minister Sir Eric Pickles, who said he feared abuse of Britain's electoral system was widespread.
Sir Eric said this summer that it was time for ministers to consider voter ID rather than relying on trust, saying it was "ridiculous that it is harder to take out a council library book than to pick up a council ballot paper".
http://news.sky.com/story/voters-to-be-forced-to-bring-id-to-polling-stations-10703172?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
Healthcare is expensive, particularly for chronic conditions, a problem with no easy answer, and people with chronic conditions are often poor. Ration by restricting or withdrawing cover, ration by restricting access (such as waiting lists, or closure of rural hospitals in flyover states) or ration explicitly (NICE), that is the choice, unless you are rich.
Getting all the drug ads off the TV will also have the side effect of annoying those who annoyed Trump the most during the campaign!
I would support most of the suggested measures, but postal vote farming is something ripe for reform. I would also remove the right of Commonwealth citizens to vote, unless they have permanent residence.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/20/stunning-photos-capture-rare-snow-sahara-desert/
I wonder how Trump's wall will affect this.
AMEND THE HEADER.
SERIOUSLY
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/go-time-je-suis-berlin/
" I hereby predict that by Christmas Day at the latest a group of the world’s most persecuted and peaceful Muslim sect will turn up at Mass somewhere in Germany (as some Ahmadiyya Muslims did after some non-Ahmadiyya Muslims slaughtered a French priest at his altar last summer). The ensuing, very beautiful and moving photos will appear across the world’s press with the attendees described as simply ‘Muslims’. Then we can all forget the dead bodies and focus on the Muslim good news story, taking away the only viable lesson which is: ‘Anyone acting violently in the name of Islam = nothing to do with Islam; small sect behaving nicely in the name of Islam = true Islam, and who are you to say otherwise? Bigot.’
http://arstechnica.co.uk/science/2016/12/peter-thiel-now-leading-the-fight-for-commercial-space-in-trumps-nasa/
It'll be interesting to see which side he lands on: old space or new space.
But most if all: NASA needs a direction. I hope he provides it.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27865736/market?marketId=1.125797376
Is the only market related to congressional elections, and it's definitely 2016 not 2018.
Laying Rep or backing Dem is throwing away your money unless something weird happens before Congress meets in January.
Perhaps you can humour me and point out some specific examples?
Egyptian police arrest five people for using children to stage fake 'Aleppo' footage
https://t.co/THiOW7hhW7
Luckily noone nabbed the grand I stuck up at 1.01 (£10 to me). Thanking @Peter_From_Putney for that one.
Anecdote alert - I have a relative who is a senior manager in an acute hospital. She came home last night in despair - she has never seen so many patients waiting for a bed. All of the A&E cubicles were full and she counted 8 people trying to sleep on ambulance trollies in a corridor. Some of them were over 80 years old.
We're all heading for a very difficult winter, the Government most of all.
Citizens get to choose their plan, funded by the government. One would expect insurance providers to compete on service / network / etc if the basic requirements & cost are fixed.
And if people want to top up their plans to get branded drugs not generics they can pay for that.
Reducing cost is more about tort reform, allowing competition across state lines, etc
7:35AM
PlatoSaid said:
"Voters will have to bring identification to polling stations for the first time next year, as part of a crackdown on electoral fraud.
Sky News understands a series of pilots will be set up in which voters will have to produce a document such as a driving licence, passport or utility bill to prove their identity.
Ministers have decided to adopt a series of recommendations contained in a hard-hitting report by former cabinet minister Sir Eric Pickles, who said he feared abuse of Britain's electoral system was widespread.
Sir Eric said this summer that it was time for ministers to consider voter ID rather than relying on trust, saying it was "ridiculous that it is harder to take out a council library book than to pick up a council ballot paper".
http://news.sky.com/story/voters-to-be-forced-to-bring-id-to-polling-stations-10703172?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
I hope that we are not going down the route of voter suppression that is so common in the USA.
I would support most of the suggested measures, but postal vote farming is something ripe for reform. I would also remove the right of Commonwealth citizens to vote, unless they have permanent residence.
**
In the back of beyond, even having to take your poll card would be a bit OTT.
I'd let local authorities regulate voter ID; in extreme cases like B'ham and Tower Hamlets they may have to get tough.
After all, Tories surely believe in local democracy? Er ...
No, it's darkest at local midnight. Just before the dawn, it's quite light.
Mr. Herdson, I was just about to point that out.
I hope there's a wide array of acceptable ID at the polling station. I also think it makes more sense to have it stringently regulated at dodgy places (Tower Hamlets) than everywhere.
I think the NHS is a perfectly good model. It does need some reform and cash, but I'd much rather start from here than the US system - a bit of private provision on top (As alot of people have) works well.
Some countries systems which are alot more expensive or screwed up than us in my opinion:
US Healthcare
Germany Immigration
Australia Housing (Lol @ Negative gearing)
French Employment law
Greek Taxation system (Particularly collection, or lack thereof)
Italian Banks & law (Judging by @Cyclefree posts)
For all its faults I would be really concerned if HMRC were at that level.
Now our phone system, as run by Buggerup Telecom plc, is a different story...
Postal voting is more difficult, but it should be possible to perform some extra checks - in fact, it should be done given the vast expansion in usage of the system.
1. Regulation
2. Funding
3. Ensures free at the point of use
but fails badly because it also tries to cover
4. Delivery
The NHS is bigger than the Indian state railway system. It's an unmanageable monster that has become a lefty religion. Can we not just keep 1-3 and have a free market in 4 please?
Yes, there have been only three swings as big as the one required in 2018, however, all three were mid-term elections. 2018 is of course a mid-term. This reduces the incidences in the table from 3 in 15 to 3 in 7. Furthermore, two of the swings were on the first mid-term after a party had newly won the White House; 2018 will be another such occasion. Indeed, in the series, there were only three such years: 1994, 2002 and 2010. So suddenly the ratio has increased from 20% to 67% (albeit on a much smaller sample). For what it's worth, the previous similar example - 1982 - would also (just) have given a big enough swing, when the Democrats gained 26 seats from an already strong base.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, there's a natural rebalancing after a change of party with the presidency. Protest voters come out and presidential initiatives are often at their strongest in the first two years, inviting a lot of fightback. The president's interest is in winning re-election in four years' time; congressional control is important but of the two, it's the secondary.
The one exception to the examples - 2002 - can be relatively easily dismissed as exceptional. The election came 14 months after 9/11, after the successful phase of the Afghan War and before the Iraq invasion. Bush, unusually for a president, was not engaged in partisan warfare over his domestic programme but was running what at the time seemed to be a broadly successful response to an attack on the American mainland and against the very concept of America. It's not too surprising that in that context, his party made gains.
The reasonable assumption is that Trump will not be in Bush's position; that his midterm will be much closer to those of Reagan, Clinton and Obama. And that particularly given his political inexperience and his temperament, that therefore he too will suffer a major reverse in 2018.
21 December 1945. Leading US World War 2 General, George S. Patton (aged 60), was killed in a car accident in Heidelberg, Germany. https://t.co/cNotQDfHSw
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4054140/How-German-police-bungled-hunt-Europe-s-wanted-man-Asylum-seeker-23-wrongly-blamed-Christmas-market-massacre-jumping-red-light.html#ixzz4TSNinBaQ
NHS A&E is superb. Really, really superb.
The rest of the NHS is a bit of a curate's egg and very much a postcode lottery. If they can categorise the complaint; if you need a new knee, or have heart problems, it can serve you very well.
If you have a complaint that is hard to categorise, that will not fit into the 'boxes' they have developed, it is often fairly poor.
Mental health services are, from the experiences of friends, utterly borken. And that is because mental health issues can be very problematic to diagnose and treat, such problems are very widespread in society, and the services are drastically underfunded.
I'm just outside... my office is in Sheffield though, and that has a unique problem of slow speed.
Massa back to Williams.
I think Sheffield is actually on their list of places to expand into. It's a good medium sized city. London will never get it though, we'll have to wait 20 years for BT to catch up.
Surprised about Massa though, thought it would be Di Resta.
A friend of mine who worked at Seoul University saw a sales rep from this country extolling the virtues of a piece of telephone kit that would increase internet speeds to 20 Mbps to a South Korean businessman. 'How does that compare with yours now, eh?' asked this rep with smugness.
Completely deadpan, the businessman replied, 'well, it's very slow today. It's only 85 Mbps right now.'
That was in 2006. The fastest speed under optimum conditions on the most expensive package is 77 Mbps in Cannock, which is a town of 80,000 people.
BT's broadband is awful, their customer service is worse (it's never ever their fault when things go wrong and they charge you too much because e.g. they have put the wrong name on the account despite being warned twice a year for ten years that they were getting it wrong) and their board is a joke led by a man of Corbyn's age who makes the Jezziah look like an intellectual giant and an inspirational leader.
But the most damning indictment of all is how badly they have managed Openreach. It is a national disgrace, and I cannot believe that the Competition Commission were so spineless and so useless as to not take it away from them.
The desire for checks and balances will work the other way in 2018.
Obamacare tried to make health insurance compulsory like car insurance, but the fine was less than the premium so the youngsters just paid the fine instead!