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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks on what we don’t know about Copeland

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks on what we don’t know about Copeland

GE2015 Copeland where there's to be a by-election pic.twitter.com/YKrc5S4Kpi

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Comments

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    First
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Afternoon again all :)

    The other imponderable is we don't know when the by election will be called. Copeland might be fun on a nice spring day - perhaps less so in mid January.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,725
    How many times has a party gained a seat with a reduced share of the vote? Is it extremely rare or fairly common?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Interesting summary, Alastair, thank you.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Don't forget Max Egremont's residual influence.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    A fun festive game for all the family.

    Draw a very wiggly 'circle'. Quite rough. Show it to someone and ask 'Is it a circle'? Then ask which party they normally vote for.

    Yes - more likely to vote Labour
    No - more likely to vote Tory.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Don't think it is reasonable to treat Zac as a Conservative as you say.

    I think we all underestimate the interest in politics of the average Joe. Zac didn't have the Conservative logo next to his name. I think an official Conservative (in the absence of Back Zac) would have done better than Zac did.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    An article in the Guardian, written by Jill Abramson, which is worth reading:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/21/clintons-democratic-party-donors-recover

    It is truly remarkable how badly the Democratic Party has done over the past 8 years at each and every level of politics in the US, save mayoralties.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/obamas-last-christmas-a-season-of-disappointment/article/2610329
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    @ Bromptonaut Any theorizing as to the mechanism behind the choice?
  • Good afternoon, everyone.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Merry Christmas Eve Mr Dancer
  • theakestheakes Posts: 839
    Do not always agree with Mr Meeks but I think he has this spot on. Labour with an increased percentage majority on a low poll. If the weather turns really sour, heavy snowdrifts and freezing apvements etc there may have to be contingency arrangements to defer the election to say March.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    MTimT said:

    @ Bromptonaut Any theorizing as to the mechanism behind the choice?

    Only my own.

    Right wing - prefers to see the world in terms of right and wrong, simple truths, common sense, black and white, native and migrant.

    Left wing - none of the above. :smile:
  • Bitchy...

    'Trump Ally Carl Paladino Slammed for 'Racist' Wish List for Obamas

    ..when asked what he would most like to see go in 2017, he responded:

    Michelle Obama. I'd like her to return to being a male and let loose in the outback of Zimbabwe where she lives comfortably in a cave with Maxie, the gorilla.'

    http://tinyurl.com/j9y5sct
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Rick Parfitt from Status Quo has died. Can't wait for 2016 to end
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Blue_rog said:

    Rick Parfitt from Status Quo has died. Can't wait for 2016 to end

    Down down, deeper and down.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    Is Copeland the only Labour seat in England covering part of a national park?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Blue_rog said:

    Rick Parfitt from Status Quo has died. Can't wait for 2016 to end

    Was it @DavidL who made the comment about the Grim Reaper hanging up his scythe for Christmas?
  • For the sake of gender balance, surely there should be a Christmas Adam to go with Christmas Eve?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    edited December 2016
    @Theuniondivvie - Trump openly mocks the disabled. Calling Michelle Obama a gorilla is just more hilarious high jinx. White supremacists the President-elect likes to hang out with are just misunderstood in a world where PC has gone mad. They're victims, you should know that by now.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    @ Mr Bromptonaut

    Alternative viewpoint.

    Left wing tolerance of low standards, equal marks/pay regardless of work done, anti-competition participation awards for everyone.

    Right wing holding up of standards, constructive criticism of poor work aimed at personal improvement, welcome to the real world that is not a circle no matter what your left wing teachers and lecturers told you ...

    :)
  • Mr. Observer, there is the other far side, too. Benedict Cumberbatch, for example, getting in a frightful state apologising for saying 'coloured person' instead of 'person of colour'.

    Just because some people are obnoxious, or racist, doesn't mean that there isn't a problem with excessive control of language, desire for safe spaces, censorship etc etc.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,725
    1975 Interview w Maggie that may be of interest to some of you

    These "Firing Line" programmes appear to have been uploaded en masse to youtube recently

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Xr4pvvAphs
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Charles said:

    Don't think it is reasonable to treat Zac as a Conservative as you say.

    I think we all underestimate the interest in politics of the average Joe. Zac didn't have the Conservative logo next to his name. I think an official Conservative (in the absence of Back Zac) would have done better than Zac did.

    If it had been Zac vs official Con vs LD, I would have expected the LDs to come through the middle.

    If there had been an official conservative candidate, and no Zac? That's a much harder call.
  • Mr. Observer, there is the other far side, too. Benedict Cumberbatch, for example, getting in a frightful state apologising for saying 'coloured person' instead of 'person of colour'.

    Just because some people are obnoxious, or racist, doesn't mean that there isn't a problem with excessive control of language, desire for safe spaces, censorship etc etc.

    And the over the top reactions mean that people aren't taken seriously when somebody genuinely is the wrong side of the line.

    I think there's a fable about this that has had some discussion on PB not too long ago.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    'The other imponderable is we don't know when the by election will be called. Copeland might be fun on a nice spring day - perhaps less so in mid January. '

    The MP is not resigning until the end of January so a by election is unlikely before 2nd March.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    MTimT said:

    @ Mr Bromptonaut

    Alternative viewpoint.

    Left wing tolerance of low standards, equal marks/pay regardless of work done, anti-competition participation awards for everyone.

    Right wing holding up of standards, constructive criticism of poor work aimed at personal improvement, welcome to the real world that is not a circle no matter what your left wing teachers and lecturers told you ...

    :)

    Banged to rights. :smile:
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "Status Quo's Rick Parfitt dies"

    Well, dang. I went to quite a few of the Quo's concerts in my youth and once shared a 'Telegraph crossword with him and Francis Rossi on a train to Manchester. A genuinely nice bloke.

    Going back to last evening's conversation, the fags did not get him, the booze did not get him, nor even did the cocaine. An infection did.
  • @Morris_Dancer - Corbyn quite rightly gets slammed for the company he keeps by right wingers on here and elsewhere. But they seem much less concerned by Trump's mocking of the disabled and his white supremacist friends. Who'd have thought it?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    "Status Quo's Rick Parfitt dies"

    Well, dang. I went to quite a few of the Quo's concerts in my youth and once shared a 'Telegraph crossword with him and Francis Rossi on a train to Manchester. A genuinely nice bloke.

    Going back to last evening's conversation, the fags did not get him, the booze did not get him, nor even did the cocaine. An infection did.


    Although the fags, booze, and cocaine may have rendered his body less able to fight infection.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Don't think it is reasonable to treat Zac as a Conservative as you say.

    I think we all underestimate the interest in politics of the average Joe. Zac didn't have the Conservative logo next to his name. I think an official Conservative (in the absence of Back Zac) would have done better than Zac did.

    If it had been Zac vs official Con vs LD, I would have expected the LDs to come through the middle.

    If there had been an official conservative candidate, and no Zac? That's a much harder call.
    Agree on the first. On the second I'd have given it to Con, but close.
  • Mr. Observer, I've said before I wouldn't've voted for Trump (the locker room banter was not endearing, amongst other things).

    To use the old Godwin's Law, I'm not saying Nazis are good, just that Soviets are bad too. It's possible (because I do) to oppose the obnoxious comments you mentioned whilst also being against the delicate, dancing-on-the-head-of-a-pin that some use over language.

    Mr. Quidder, indeed, that's when I used a brilliant DS9 reference, Garak saying the moral of the (Boy Who Cried Wolf) story is to never tell the same lie twice.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    @Morris_Dancer - Corbyn quite rightly gets slammed for the company he keeps by right wingers on here and elsewhere. But they seem much less concerned by Trump's mocking of the disabled and his white supremacist friends. Who'd have thought it?

    This meme is getting almost as tiresome of that chart you posted frequently.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Mortimer said:

    @Morris_Dancer - Corbyn quite rightly gets slammed for the company he keeps by right wingers on here and elsewhere. But they seem much less concerned by Trump's mocking of the disabled and his white supremacist friends. Who'd have thought it?

    This meme is getting almost as tiresome of that chart you posted frequently.
    For some reason are we supposed to be as upset about the antics of the candidates and winner of a race to be the leader of another country as we are of the candidates of our own ?

    I find one of the relaxing things about living in another country is I am completely unfazed by the sort of antics I see on the news happening here, which I would be chewing the furniture if they happened in the UK. It's easy to take the happenings in other countries, even ones you happen to live in, much less personally.
  • Outside the Town of Whitehaven this constituency has never been as completely hostile to the Tory cause as some imagine. During my four years on Cumbria, beginning in 2009 there were 5 Tory county councillors out of ?12.

    I think the 2009 County Election results - search the county website will offer some insight for potential betters as the context was not dissimilar to now; Tories so so, Labour toxic. At least one of those elected in 2009 NEVER expected to be elected and was IMHO one of the best councillors ever elected to Cumbria.

    The local Tory Party knew about the impending resignaton for at least three weeks before it happened. Even I knew two days before - I didn't realise it hadn't been announced. There are as I understand it three potential local candidates and the selection is well under way. Certainly two of them are on first name terms with the PM.

    Contrary to some comments about TM's invisibility as Home Secretary she was a regular campaigner at every council election and Police Commissioner election in the county. My point with this is she is well known in Cumbria Cons circles and knows the people involved.

    A few threads back someone suggested Labour might select Tim Knowles as he fronted the piece for Labour on Border Lookaround. I would be surprised if he were selected and assume he is chairman of the CLP or some such. He makes Jamie Reed look like a Bennite. But he was and I assume still is a very effective county councillor and was a key member of the 2009 to 2013 Con/Lab coalition on CCC. But, he doesn't have the gobshite charisma of say Tim Farron to fight a by-election.

    The Lib Dems are a total irrelevance in Copeland - they did have a councillor for Keswick but she resigned mid term. I don't imagine Tim will be spending any more time in this constituency than he does in the House of Commons. Door knocking for the Cumbria county elections will be his sole pre-occupation for the first five months of 2017. He has a lot to lose.

    But there must be a LD candidate as Tim has to live down his once regular proclamations that he was to the left of Labour. Not to stand would be a gift for us Tories in those much more important county elections.

    As has been pointed out Ed Balls has no connections to north and west Cumbria - EXCEPT that is where his wife hails from. So, whilst his candidacy is very unlikely MPs have had more tenuous connections with their constituency.

    As a Cumbrian Tory of course I hope and expect we will win this contest convincingly. The biggest danger would be the selection of a non-local candidate and as far as I can see enough has been done already to prevent this.

    There is many a slip etc, but as well as the who wins bet punters might find better value on a longer odds bet of the best Con gain in any by-election since the war.

    Kevin Lancaster
  • @Mortimer SouthamObserver's point is valid. Those who attack Corbyn for the company he keeps should also attack Trump for similar type links.

  • Mr. Lancaster, welcome to the site*, and cheers for that post.

    *Did you used to post here? The username sounds familiar.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Mortimer said:

    @Morris_Dancer - Corbyn quite rightly gets slammed for the company he keeps by right wingers on here and elsewhere. But they seem much less concerned by Trump's mocking of the disabled and his white supremacist friends. Who'd have thought it?

    This meme is getting almost as tiresome of that chart you posted frequently.
    Tiresome or not the point is well made.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    @Mortimer SouthamObserver's point is valid. Those who attack Corbyn for the company he keeps should also attack Trump for similar type links.

    I dont see why, Trump isn't, and never will be a candidate for leading a political party in the UK. Or should we spend our time criticizing the views and friends of every political leader in every other country. I await with bated breath a discussion of the various unsavoury friends of the candidates for the next President of France. Clearly if May, or Farron, or even Sturgeon have unsavory friends that is fair game.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited December 2016

    @Mortimer SouthamObserver's point is valid. Those who attack Corbyn for the company he keeps should also attack Trump for similar type links.

    Given that Trump has never run for election in this country and doesn't hold a constitutional position in the UK I'm going to disagree with you on that.

    It should be no surprise that British politicos are more concerned about the links of a British politician.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    @Mortimer SouthamObserver's point is valid. Those who attack Corbyn for the company he keeps should also attack Trump for similar type links.

    It would a very boring site if we all had to line up to condemn everything that some prat from Trump's circle (inner or outer) says something.

    Can't we just agree that he's an arse who knows some pretty unpleasant people?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Every Labour leader gets attacked mercilessly.Only Wilson and Blair could jump the shark.We will never know if John Smith could have.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited December 2016
    Re Richmond Park with no Zac but with an official candidate.

    The latter would have had all the access to the Tory machine particularly the data and creative sides. The only problem is that the candidate would not have had any incumbency benefit which in Zac's case was very strong.

    True there was a negative element with LAB supporters to Zac but that element was always going to be smaller than Zac loyalists.

    My view is that the LDs were so fired up and had the expertise and data that they were always going to come through to win this seat. This was an absolutely must win for them and an incredible team was put together.

    One factor was that unlike other by-elections this had been likely to happen for at least 18 months beforehand. They were prepared and got a campaign newspaper, written, printed and delivered to 90%+ of the constituency within 36 hours of Zac quitting as an MP.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,747
    edited December 2016

    Mortimer said:

    @Morris_Dancer - Corbyn quite rightly gets slammed for the company he keeps by right wingers on here and elsewhere. But they seem much less concerned by Trump's mocking of the disabled and his white supremacist friends. Who'd have thought it?

    This meme is getting almost as tiresome of that chart you posted frequently.
    For some reason are we supposed to be as upset about the antics of the candidates and winner of a race to be the leader of another country as we are of the candidates of our own ?

    I find one of the relaxing things about living in another country is I am completely unfazed by the sort of antics I see on the news happening here, which I would be chewing the furniture if they happened in the UK. It's easy to take the happenings in other countries, even ones you happen to live in, much less personally.
    Yep, the olympian detachment shown by PBers towards decisons made by Merkel should be an inspiration to us all.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Charles said:

    @Mortimer SouthamObserver's point is valid. Those who attack Corbyn for the company he keeps should also attack Trump for similar type links.

    It would a very boring site if we all had to line up to condemn everything that some prat from Trump's circle (inner or outer) says something.

    Can't we just agree that he's an arse who knows some pretty unpleasant people?
    Quite. The competition to be incensed about everything to the correct degree is tiresome.

    Merry Christmas Charles!
  • Mr. City, I think you're misunderstanding the term 'jump the shark' [modern version being 'nuke the fridge']. It refers to a Happy Days episode when the Fonz was on water-skis and jumped over a shark, something apparently so cool (or ludicrous...) it could never be bettered and the only way was down.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Charles said:

    @Mortimer SouthamObserver's point is valid. Those who attack Corbyn for the company he keeps should also attack Trump for similar type links.

    It would a very boring site if we all had to line up to condemn everything that some prat from Trump's circle (inner or outer) says something.

    Can't we just agree that he's an arse who knows some pretty unpleasant people?
    Yep. But I greatly fear that "arse" understates the case.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,725

    Mortimer said:

    @Morris_Dancer - Corbyn quite rightly gets slammed for the company he keeps by right wingers on here and elsewhere. But they seem much less concerned by Trump's mocking of the disabled and his white supremacist friends. Who'd have thought it?

    This meme is getting almost as tiresome of that chart you posted frequently.
    For some reason are we supposed to be as upset about the antics of the candidates and winner of a race to be the leader of another country as we are of the candidates of our own ?

    I find one of the relaxing things about living in another country is I am completely unfazed by the sort of antics I see on the news happening here, which I would be chewing the furniture if they happened in the UK. It's easy to take the happenings in other countries, even ones you happen to live in, much less personally.
    Yep, the olympian detachment shown by PBers towards decisons made by Merkel should be an inspiration to us all.
    What a great point! She has nothing to do with UK govt policy, just like Trump
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    Mortimer said:

    @Morris_Dancer - Corbyn quite rightly gets slammed for the company he keeps by right wingers on here and elsewhere. But they seem much less concerned by Trump's mocking of the disabled and his white supremacist friends. Who'd have thought it?

    This meme is getting almost as tiresome of that chart you posted frequently.
    For some reason are we supposed to be as upset about the antics of the candidates and winner of a race to be the leader of another country as we are of the candidates of our own ?

    I find one of the relaxing things about living in another country is I am completely unfazed by the sort of antics I see on the news happening here, which I would be chewing the furniture if they happened in the UK. It's easy to take the happenings in other countries, even ones you happen to live in, much less personally.
    Yep, the olympian detachment shown by PBers towards decisons made by Merkel should be an inspiration to us all.
    Congratulations on your pedant of the day award, clearly I was referring to decision made in the other country that do not affect your home country. Funnily enough sitting here in south east asia there isnt much on the news that has the slightest relevance to the UK.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    The latter would have had all the access to the Tory machine particularly the data and creative sides. The only problem is that the candidate would not have had any incumbency benefit which in Zac's case was very strong.

    Do we have any indication of how much of a dent Zac's re-election antics put in his incumbency effect. He certainly had a massive majority to lose, but one wonders how much of his fall was due to national issues, and how much was due to local voters feeling that he had behaved like a prat and that they were not inclined to support him any further (especially since he was not wearing a blue rosette)

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Morris cheers but you get my gist.In that they could create publicity against the negative attacks on their leadership as not warranting attention it was getting.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Obviously its fair to criticize
    isam said:

    Mortimer said:

    @Morris_Dancer - Corbyn quite rightly gets slammed for the company he keeps by right wingers on here and elsewhere. But they seem much less concerned by Trump's mocking of the disabled and his white supremacist friends. Who'd have thought it?

    This meme is getting almost as tiresome of that chart you posted frequently.
    For some reason are we supposed to be as upset about the antics of the candidates and winner of a race to be the leader of another country as we are of the candidates of our own ?

    I find one of the relaxing things about living in another country is I am completely unfazed by the sort of antics I see on the news happening here, which I would be chewing the furniture if they happened in the UK. It's easy to take the happenings in other countries, even ones you happen to live in, much less personally.
    Yep, the olympian detachment shown by PBers towards decisons made by Merkel should be an inspiration to us all.
    What a great point! She has nothing to do with UK govt policy, just like Trump
    Or awkwardly enough Jeremy Corbyn.
  • isam said:


    What a great point! She has nothing to do with UK govt policy, just like Trump


    Congratulations on your pedant of the day award, clearly I was referring to decision made in the other country that do not affect your home country. Funnily enough sitting here in south east asia there isnt much on the news that has the slightest relevance to the UK.

    The PB choir is gathering and singing from the same carol sheet, how festive.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    @Mortimer SouthamObserver's point is valid. Those who attack Corbyn for the company he keeps should also attack Trump for similar type links.

    Charles said:

    @Mortimer SouthamObserver's point is valid. Those who attack Corbyn for the company he keeps should also attack Trump for similar type links.

    It would a very boring site if we all had to line up to condemn everything that some prat from Trump's circle (inner or outer) says something.

    Can't we just agree that he's an arse who knows some pretty unpleasant people?
    Quite. We aren't like Santa Claus, obliged to make impartial rulings on who has been naughty and nice. Corbyn is to be tested in by-elections shortly and a G.E. in due course, in the country most of us live in. Trump is not a political betting issue till the mid-terms. To say "I, a pseudonymous internetter, think Trump is bad and horrid" has next to no predictive value (we might call this rule, Principle 619).

    And the thing is, he is an arse who is PEOTUS. It seems a bit disproportionate and inadequate to say "he was rude about Mrs Obama" when he is, more relevantly, considerably raising the risk of global nuclear war. It's a bit like complaining that Goebbels lit his cigars without taking the band off, or served red wine with fish.
  • Nigel Farage has run for office in the UK. He is very happy hanging out with people who openly mock the disabled and court white supremacists.

    I am not asking anyone to condemn anything. I am merely noting that those right wingers who profess outrage about Corbyn's unsavoury associates are rather less bothered about the unsavoury connections of ptomjnent right wing politicians.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,608
    "It's a bit like complaining that Goebbels lit his cigars without taking the band off, or served red wine with fish."

    Both of which are very middle class obsessions. A true gentleman would order Cru Gamay with his swordfish, shoot Goebbels with his .318 Westley Richards(*), and after his meal order his cigar. With the band on.

    (*) Holland & Holland is for the kind of people who have their guns engraved with copies of their tattoos. (**)

    (**) Yes, they really have done this for rich customers
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,764
    edited December 2016
    @TimT, the Democratic Party seems to be an unholy alliance of hard-faced capitalists and politically correct ideologues, which puts them on the wrong side of rather a lot of public opinion. Trump's victory didn't come out of nowhere. The Democrats' performance in elections (especially at State level) has been very poor since 2010.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Farage is just as odious as Corbyn.. in fact I think Farage is more dangerous as he is listened to...
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,191
    Here's the view from Heathrow. If Labour gets its vote out in Millom and Whitehaven it should win - This wouldn't be the most elastic seat and I don't think UKIP will have enduring popularity in West Cumbria.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Nigel Farage has run for office in the UK. He is very happy hanging out with people who openly mock the disabled and court white supremacists.

    I am not asking anyone to condemn anything. I am merely noting that those right wingers who profess outrage about Corbyn's unsavoury associates are rather less bothered about the unsavoury connections of ptomjnent right wing politicians.

    Although he has yet to associate himself with terrorists, unless I am mistaken?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,725

    Nigel Farage has run for office in the UK. He is very happy hanging out with people who openly mock the disabled and court white supremacists.

    I am not asking anyone to condemn anything. I am merely noting that those right wingers who profess outrage about Corbyn's unsavoury associates are rather less bothered about the unsavoury connections of ptomjnent right wing politicians.

    Oh do behave! Almost everyone on here has their allegiances and the bias that comes with them. People post things that further their own cause/make themselves look good all the time, no one expects them to have to point out all the bad things their side do as a counter balance! Its not as if there aren't people queuing up to do it for them, its like a free market
  • @SquareRoot The great thing now is that UKIP has got a new leader who has a Phd and used to play for Tranmere Rovers
  • Coming up on Christmas Day - an old PB favourite

    The StJohn Christmas CrossWord
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    edited December 2016
    "@SquareRoot The great thing now is that UKIP has got a new leader who has a Phd and used to play for Tranmere Rovers"

    Someone's been tinkering with the laws of the universe then.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Carols from King's now on. Hope everyone's watching!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "Coming up on Christmas Day - an old PB favourite

    The StJohn Christmas CrossWord"

    Huzzah! Wrestling with the PB Christmas Day crossword is now as traditional in the Llama household as the eight o'clock service and the bacon sandwiches and bucks fizz that go with it.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    "It's a bit like complaining that Goebbels lit his cigars without taking the band off, or served red wine with fish."

    Both of which are very middle class obsessions. A true gentleman would order Cru Gamay with his swordfish, shoot Goebbels with his .318 Westley Richards(*), and after his meal order his cigar. With the band on.

    (*) Holland & Holland is for the kind of people who have their guns engraved with copies of their tattoos. (**)

    (**) Yes, they really have done this for rich customers

    Swordfish is culinarily a meat, Birmingham is just for trade guns and air rifles (but if you said Purdey I would agree with you), and leaving the band on is either unbelievably posh behaviour, or pure ignorance. Safest to remove it unless you are the 17th duke of somewhere in Spain, and habitually smoke in white gloves which the band is intended to protect.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Ishmael_Z

    Fair go, but I would say the only food that one should never serve red wine with is oysters, that combination really does not work.
  • Anyway, time for me to be off. Hope you all get good presents (and dinner) tomorrow.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Toms said:

    Charles said:

    @Mortimer SouthamObserver's point is valid. Those who attack Corbyn for the company he keeps should also attack Trump for similar type links.

    It would a very boring site if we all had to line up to condemn everything that some prat from Trump's circle (inner or outer) says something.

    Can't we just agree that he's an arse who knows some pretty unpleasant people?
    Yep. But I greatly fear that "arse" understates the case.
    I was deliberately going for something non-controversial as a baseline we could all agree on!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "It's a bit like complaining that Goebbels lit his cigars without taking the band off, or served red wine with fish."

    Both of which are very middle class obsessions. A true gentleman would order Cru Gamay with his swordfish, shoot Goebbels with his .318 Westley Richards(*), and after his meal order his cigar. With the band on.

    (*) Holland & Holland is for the kind of people who have their guns engraved with copies of their tattoos. (**)

    (**) Yes, they really have done this for rich customers

    Does anyone actually have a new gun?

    I'm using one that my Dad was given by Majorie Brecknock; he had a 4 inch stock extension put on but I may need to get it extended again.

    The extension may be longer than the stock, but it's sweet and light and the aim is true.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    RobD said:

    Nigel Farage has run for office in the UK. He is very happy hanging out with people who openly mock the disabled and court white supremacists.

    I am not asking anyone to condemn anything. I am merely noting that those right wingers who profess outrage about Corbyn's unsavoury associates are rather less bothered about the unsavoury connections of ptomjnent right wing politicians.

    Although he has yet to associate himself with terrorists, unless I am mistaken?
    Or win office in the UK... not for want of trying ;)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    (*) Holland & Holland is for the kind of people who have their guns engraved with copies of their tattoos. (**)

    (**) Yes, they really have done this for rich customers

    Are you going to share yours with us?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    'he had a 4 inch stock extension'

    A late entry for the PB euphemism of the year award?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited December 2016
    Charles said:

    "It's a bit like complaining that Goebbels lit his cigars without taking the band off, or served red wine with fish."

    Both of which are very middle class obsessions. A true gentleman would order Cru Gamay with his swordfish, shoot Goebbels with his .318 Westley Richards(*), and after his meal order his cigar. With the band on.

    (*) Holland & Holland is for the kind of people who have their guns engraved with copies of their tattoos. (**)

    (**) Yes, they really have done this for rich customers

    Does anyone actually have a new gun?

    I'm using one that my Dad was given by Majorie Brecknock; he had a 4 inch stock extension put on but I may need to get it extended again.

    The extension may be longer than the stock, but it's sweet and light and the aim is true.
    16 bore Beesley made in the mid '90s (that's 1890s).
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone on here work for the FT? Because there seems to be a flaw in their paywall. If you click on an article on the front page it comes up with a message saying you need to subscribe to view. But if you type the title of the article into a search engine and click on it you can read the article.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone on here work for the FT? Because there seems to be a flaw in their paywall. If you click on an article on the front page it comes up with a message saying you need to subscribe to view. But if you type the title of the article into a search engine and click on it you can read the article.

    That's not a flaw, they have a deal with Google.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MaxPB: interesting. Although I can't see what the point of the paywall is in that case.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    FPT

    foxinsoxuk said:
    Family speaking Polish at the next table. Should I tell them to piss off? or smile and wish them a Happy Winterval?

    Some advice please from the PB elite...


    I would answer ....get off your phone and PB and talk to the person / group you actually went out to dinner with for Christmas Eve. .......

    In regard to question wish them happy Christmas ......why wouldn't you? If you can do it in polish so much the better.

    Wesołych Świąt. By the way and no, I don't know how to pronounce
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Happy Christmas all - wishing you everything you want in the new year (not you, Lab supporters).

    What a decent and engaging and interesting bunch of people you all are.

    Here's to plenty of "discussions" next year.
  • Moses_ said:

    FPT

    foxinsoxuk said:
    Family speaking Polish at the next table. Should I tell them to piss off? or smile and wish them a Happy Winterval?

    Some advice please from the PB elite...


    I would answer ....get off your phone and PB and talk to the person / group you actually went out to dinner with for Christmas Eve. .......

    In regard to question wish them happy Christmas ......why wouldn't you? If you can do it in polish so much the better.

    Wesołych Świąt. By the way and no, I don't know how to pronounce

    Why would you even thing of abusing them.

    They deserve to be welcomed and wished a happy Christmas

    I want to leave the EU but would not even think about being anything other than polite

    Re Royal Blue - Kings carols is my wife's favorite programme of the year. Fabulous
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    May I wish all PBers and families a very happy and peaceful Christmas and I will leave you this evening with this thought.....

    A Snowflake Falls
    © Ruth Adams

    One night I saw a snowflake fall,
    Past memories it did recall,

    And as the snow fell to the ground,
    So quietly without a sound,

    I watched until a blanket made,
    To glistening white brown earth did fade.

    An untouched cover until the dawn,
    the sun arose it was soon gone.

    I thought of friendships in the past,
    Seemed perfect though they did not last.

    And family ties once meant so much,
    Now rarely do we keep in touch.

    So quickly life can take a turn,
    Yet slowly we do seem to learn,

    So many things in life can change,
    And suddenly be rearranged.

    In our slumber while we do sleep,
    For granted blessings thought to keep,

    For same as night does turn to morn,
    An untouched blanket can get torn,

    The things that we have overlooked,
    Ignored, rejected or mistook,

    As melted snow does turn to slush,
    Relationships can turn to dust.

    So this year for the Holiday,
    Praise God for blessings gave today.

    Don't take for granted they'll remain,
    That life forever will be the same.

    Let's be the most that we can be,
    For all our friends and family.

    Unlike the snowflake on the ground,
    Let's keep in touch and stay around.

    Best wishes to all....and especially OGH for another great year for PB.

    Moses.
  • TOPPING said:

    Happy Christmas all - wishing you everything you want in the new year (not you, Lab supporters).

    What a decent and engaging and interesting bunch of people you all are.

    Here's to plenty of "discussions" next year.

    And a Happy Christmas to yourself and everyone on this forum

    Lets hope 2017 will see lively debate but with more tolerance to opposing views from everyone

    I am signing off now until after Christmas
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB: interesting. Although I can't see what the point of the paywall is in that case.

    Google pay them per click.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Moses_ said:

    FPT

    foxinsoxuk said:
    Family speaking Polish at the next table. Should I tell them to piss off? or smile and wish them a Happy Winterval?

    Some advice please from the PB elite...


    I would answer ....get off your phone and PB and talk to the person / group you actually went out to dinner with for Christmas Eve. .......

    In regard to question wish them happy Christmas ......why wouldn't you? If you can do it in polish so much the better.

    Wesołych Świąt. By the way and no, I don't know how to pronounce

    I obviously just engaged with them with a short spreadsheet analysis of average earnings and the influences thereupon.

    I was alone with my dog at the table, hence a little PB:-) and a certain.
  • Hilarious to see the reaction to Southam's rather valid point and the attempts at deflection, and the bizarre excuses made by some as to why they hold one standard for the left and totally different standard for the right. Maybe because it gets to core of their own world view and how they see people who are 'different'?
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    @Mortimer SouthamObserver's point is valid. Those who attack Corbyn for the company he keeps should also attack Trump for similar type links.

    Charles said:

    @Mortimer SouthamObserver's point is valid. Those who attack Corbyn for the company he keeps should also attack Trump for similar type links.

    It would a very boring site if we all had to line up to condemn everything that some prat from Trump's circle (inner or outer) says something.

    Can't we just agree that he's an arse who knows some pretty unpleasant people?
    Quite. We aren't like Santa Claus, obliged to make impartial rulings on who has been naughty and nice. Corbyn is to be tested in by-elections shortly and a G.E. in due course, in the country most of us live in. Trump is not a political betting issue till the mid-terms. To say "I, a pseudonymous internetter, think Trump is bad and horrid" has next to no predictive value (we might call this rule, Principle 619).

    And the thing is, he is an arse who is PEOTUS. It seems a bit disproportionate and inadequate to say "he was rude about Mrs Obama" when he is, more relevantly, considerably raising the risk of global nuclear war. It's a bit like complaining that Goebbels lit his cigars without taking the band off, or served red wine with fish.
    Rude? It's one thing to say something that's rude, it's another to say something that's pretty racist. If Trump surrounds himself with people with think these types of things what does it say about his own attitudes? Could those attitudes affect his approach to policy and thus the lives of many people of colour in America? These are the concerns many have about Trump.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Hilarious to see the reaction to Southam's rather valid point and the attempts at deflection, and the bizarre excuses made by some as to why they hold one standard for the left and totally different standard for the right. Maybe because it gets to core of their own world view and how they see people who are 'different'?

    Don't you think the IRA are on a different level entirely, or is mocking disabled people on par with terrorist atrocities that kill dozens? Not defending said mocking, just pointing out they are hardly analogous.
  • RobD said:

    Hilarious to see the reaction to Southam's rather valid point and the attempts at deflection, and the bizarre excuses made by some as to why they hold one standard for the left and totally different standard for the right. Maybe because it gets to core of their own world view and how they see people who are 'different'?

    Don't you think the IRA are on a different level entirely, or is mocking disabled people on par with terrorist atrocities that kill dozens? Not defending said mocking, just pointing out they are hardly analogous.
    I was thinking more of Corbyn's connections with anti-Semitism, which has been condemned continuously one this site as an analogy. As for mocking the disabled, what's more concerning is the less the act itself (as bad as it is) and more that you may a POTUS who has a disparaging view of many vulnerable groups in society, and how that potentially affects policy, as well emboldening many white supremacist groups.
  • SandraMSandraM Posts: 206
    Hello. Is there going to be a festive crossword tomorrow?
    Either way, Merry Christmas to you all.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Hilarious to see the reaction to Southam's rather valid point and the attempts at deflection, and the bizarre excuses made by some as to why they hold one standard for the left and totally different standard for the right. Maybe because it gets to core of their own world view and how they see people who are 'different'?

    Nah, what is hilarious is the self-importance of the bien-pensant left giving the POTUS-elect a dressing down for being a Very Naughty Boy. I expect Trump will feel very small. It's just like all those letters about not re-electing Bush the Guardian orchestrated in 2004.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited December 2016
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Hilarious to see the reaction to Southam's rather valid point and the attempts at deflection, and the bizarre excuses made by some as to why they hold one standard for the left and totally different standard for the right. Maybe because it gets to core of their own world view and how they see people who are 'different'?

    Nah, what is hilarious is the self-importance of the bien-pensant left giving the POTUS-elect a dressing down for being a Very Naughty Boy. I expect Trump will feel very small. It's just like all those letters about not re-electing Bush the Guardian orchestrated in 2004.
    Nothing to do with the 'self-importance of the bien-pensant left', especially given that Conservatives have spoken out about these kinds of remarks made by Trump and his associates. If people don't speak out against this sort of thing, then there's danger that such attitudes eventually become normalised like they used to be.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    German polling continuing to show little movement after the Berlin attacks, which some here expected to show a sharp reaction. INSA (which usually reports the highest AfD levels) does show a +2.5 bounce for them, but two other institutes don't; one shows a CDU bounce instead. I'm not sure that single atrocities do produce much reaction, as people think "that's awful" and move on - the AfD rise followed not a single incident but a period of weeks in which the refugee issue sat in the headlines every day.

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    By the way, Hurst - do you want to drop me an email? I'm not sure my last couple of emails have reached you - maybe I've got an old email address.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB: interesting. Although I can't see what the point of the paywall is in that case.

    Google pay them per click.

    Google pay them? Seriously?

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Hilarious to see the reaction to Southam's rather valid point and the attempts at deflection, and the bizarre excuses made by some as to why they hold one standard for the left and totally different standard for the right. Maybe because it gets to core of their own world view and how they see people who are 'different'?

    Nah, what is hilarious is the self-importance of the bien-pensant left giving the POTUS-elect a dressing down for being a Very Naughty Boy. I expect Trump will feel very small. It's just like all those letters about not re-electing Bush the Guardian orchestrated in 2004.
    Nothing to do with the 'self-importance of the bien-pensant left', especially given that Conservatives have spoken out about these kinds of remarks made by Trump and his associates. If people don't speak out against this sort of thing, then there's danger that such attitudes eventually become normalised like they used to be.
    The mistake you are making is thinking that Trump and his supporters are susceptible to, or capable of, rational political discourse; when in fact he is as mad as a clockwork orange, and also POTUS-elect. To get any guidance as to what he might be capable of, we must look to examples like Ivan the Terrible, the loopier Roman Emperors, or the "Big Man" tyrants of modern Africa. If you think that casual (and despicable, I fully agree) sexism and racism even register in comparison with his real faults, you are not as frightened by him as you should be.

    I do wonder what the next setting of the Doomsday clock will be.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB: interesting. Although I can't see what the point of the paywall is in that case.

    Google pay them per click.

    Google pay them? Seriously?

    Yes, the WSJ as well.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB: interesting. Although I can't see what the point of the paywall is in that case.

    Google pay them per click.

    Google pay them? Seriously?

    Yes, the WSJ as well.

    Do you have a source for that?

    I have never heard of Google paying to provide links to sites. I thought that the news sites allowed links from Google to drive traffic (so they let one article be read for free). As not allowing links from Google is rather fatal to any site's promotion strategy.

This discussion has been closed.