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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 31% chance that the next general election will be in 2017

On the UK front next year looks set to be dominated by BREXIT – the process of extracting the UK from the EU. Doing this successfully is set to be the defining act of Theresa May’s premiership and even though the referendum decision was more than six months ago we still have little idea what this is going to mean.

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edmundintokyo

It would be interesting to do a systematic study on this but I reckon the markets are irrationally biased in favour of things happening. Generally speaking things don't happen, and to the extent that they do happen, it's different things, rather than the thing that you thought might happen.

CarlottaVance

Second! Like Labour in any GE between now & 2020.....

MikeSmithson

@CarlottaVance Oh an optimist. You think LAB will make 2nd

CarlottaVance

MikeSmithson said:

@CarlottaVance Oh an optimist. You think LAB will make 2nd

The brand is very strong - it will take more than 5 years of Corbyn to destroy it. If Labour not second, who?

CarlottaVance

edmundintokyo said:

It would be interesting to do a systematic study on this but I reckon the markets are irrationally biased in favour of things happening. Generally speaking things don't happen, and to the extent that they do happen, it's different things, rather than the thing that you thought might happen.

Agree. How often were we told during the coalition that it wouldn't run the full five years?

Politicians have recently asked the electorate a question many of them didn't like the answer to, collectively, and for different reasons, they will not seek the electorate's views again until they have to....

Sandpit

Morning. A couple of us discussed this on the last thread. How can Mrs May engineer an early election where she remains PM, if neither the Opposition nor the Lords are inclined to pass anything that allows it to happen?

Forget for a minute the farce of the Opposition not wanting an election, but a scenario where the govt has no majority yet is a dozen points ahead in the polls has to be quite likely at some point in the next couple of years.

edmundintokyo

Sandpit said:

Morning. A couple of us discussed this on the last thread. How can Mrs May engineer an early election where she remains PM, if neither the Opposition nor the Lords are inclined to pass anything that allows it to happen?

Forget for a minute the farce of the Opposition not wanting an election, but a scenario where the govt has no majority yet is a dozen points ahead in the polls has to be quite likely at some point in the next couple of years.

If the Opposition won't vote for a dissolution and the Lords won't vote to change the law, the next thing she can do is to pull a Gerhard Schröder and call a vote of confidence in her own government. Presumably her party votes with her that her government is rubbish. She then waits a couple of weeks to see if anyone else can form a government. Assuming her party still supports her, The Queen won't be able to find anyone who can command a majority, so there will be a new election. (There's a slight risk here that some spirited person will say, "I can totally form a government" and go off and cut deals with enough MPs to move into Number 10.)

If she asks her party to vote that they have No Confidence in her but they refuse, I guess she can go the The Queen and tender her resignation, then we do the See If there's A Spirited Person Who Wants Her Job thing again. If nobody does it, I guess there's an election, although I'm not sure if it's constitutionally possible for the Commons to keep on voting that they have confidence in her, and for The Queen to refuse to accept her resignation. I'm not sure what would happen after that, but whatever it was it would be entertaining.

Dura_Ace

May never does anything remotely exciting or brave or even anything that could be confused with activity so engineering a 2017 GE seems like antithetical behaviour for her.

YellowSubmarine

No Reed resignation coverage in the first 3 pages of this weeks Whitehaven News. This may just be a commercial decision on what they think their readers want betwixt Christmas and New Year. But given last weeks truncated and cool mini lead I suspect they are also P***ed off he dropped his bombshell the day after they went to print. Not how you treat the paper of record in your constituiency if you want sympathetic coverage in an unnecessary by-election you are triggering to arm more money.

The Whitehaven News is only one title n a declining medium but it's a traditional area and it's well read.

YellowSubmarine

Re #Mayday ( apart from having had a dream about it happening ) my thinking is that. The Tories are the most sucessful electoral force in Europe. The best time for the next election is based on three variables. #1 Brexit still being potent. #2 Brexit still being abstract which the sh*t still in transit to the fan. #2 Good Tory poll numbers.

By far the most likely best combination of those variables is Thursday May 4th 2017. Riding the A50 invocation wave, no detail yet to scare the punters and in May's continuing honeymoon. I don't doubt the considerable constitutional hurdles but the raw politics is this. If she stands out side Downing St waving a copy of the A50 notification she sent that morning and announce she now wants a mandate for Red, White and Blue Unicorns in the negotiations can Labour *really* refuse her ?

A political party refusing an election ? An opposition leader voting to keep a PM in power ? A political party " wrecking " the Brexit negotiations by denying the PM a mandate ?

It'll be seen as a farce and I think enough Labour MP's will buckle.

If May doesn't go for the obvious window on #Mayday she's either a remarkable statesperson putting political advantage behind national stability or she's a poundshop Gordon Brown. History will tell.

YellowSubmarine

There is no glimmer of intelligence from Labour on #Mayday either. Where is the spade work on a narrative to refuse an early dissolution. " Of course we'll vote for an early General Election. The people need a vote on the Tory Brexit deal's impact on Jobs, Prices and living standards for hardworking people. We'll vote for one as soon as May tells us X, Y and Z ".

But they need to work in that now and argue the case. The day after May's Downing Street stunt will be too late. She'll have seized the narrative.

david_herdson

31% seems too high a chance to me. I agree with Mike that May won't go to the country of her own free will. She may well go, however, if her hand is forced.

The end-of-March deadline seems the most likely trigger. If either courts or parliament have prevented her from triggering A50 by then, I could well see her demanding a snap poll. What makes that the more likely is the confluence that such a timetable would have with the May elections (the motion would have to go to the Commons in late March rather than early April given the 25 working day rule but it ought to be clear by that point whether she could invoke A50 or not).

However, I'd put the chances in the low-20s rather than the low-30s. It's certainly a possibility and one that I think her party is preparing for but not one that she'll want to if given a free hand.

david_herdson

edmundintokyo said:

Sandpit said:

Morning. A couple of us discussed this on the last thread. How can Mrs May engineer an early election where she remains PM, if neither the Opposition nor the Lords are inclined to pass anything that allows it to happen?

Forget for a minute the farce of the Opposition not wanting an election, but a scenario where the govt has no majority yet is a dozen points ahead in the polls has to be quite likely at some point in the next couple of years.

If the Opposition won't vote for a dissolution and the Lords won't vote to change the law, the next thing she can do is to pull a Gerhard Schröder and call a vote of confidence in her own government. Presumably her party votes with her that her government is rubbish. She then waits a couple of weeks to see if anyone else can form a government. Assuming her party still supports her, The Queen won't be able to find anyone who can command a majority, so there will be a new election. (There's a slight risk here that some spirited person will say, "I can totally form a government" and go off and cut deals with enough MPs to move into Number 10.)

If she asks her party to vote that they have No Confidence in her but they refuse, I guess she can go the The Queen and tender her resignation, then we do the See If there's A Spirited Person Who Wants Her Job thing again. If nobody does it, I guess there's an election, although I'm not sure if it's constitutionally possible for the Commons to keep on voting that they have confidence in her, and for The Queen to refuse to accept her resignation. I'm not sure what would happen after that, but whatever it was it would be entertaining.

The way the FTPA is written, resignations can't trigger a general election (or at least, not directly). You still have to have a VoNC in the government using the wording described in the Act, so you'd have to have a government to have no confidence in.

This is the risk with the VoNC route: there is the possibility that HM could call on Corbyn, as LotO, to form a government and he might say 'yes'. He would of course fail to survive a vote himself but might still end up with the keys to No 10. HM would presumably be advised that she ought to go through the motions of seeking a potential PM and might then return to May. However, if it were clear that May had no intention of allowing a confidence vote in her passing, the Queen equally might not ask her. Corbyn would then be PM for six weeks or so from the VoNC through to election day. That might colour people's perceptions of him (and of Theresa May) differently from what they are now.

peter_from_putney

Surely Mrs.May's great fear is of a once unthinkable Grand Coalition, involving Labour, SNP and LibDems, etc in which were they all to prepared to climb into bed together. This might just be possible were the Tories to lose as few as 30 MPS (on the existing 650 composition of the HoC), i.e. around only 9% or more of their current number, which has to be distinctly possible, probable even, gicven their number of wafer-thin majorities all over the place.
Time was when, in particular, Labour and the SNP wouldn't be seen dead together, but needs must when the Devil drives and after 7 years of Tory rule, the Devil is currently the F1 Racing Champion !

YellowSubmarine

I certainly don't want her to call an early Poll and win a substantially increased majority. If she decides to do a Major and struggle through the euro trenches with a small and dwindling majority I'll be grateful to her. We'll get a better scrutinised and less extreme Brexit deal. The Tories will be forced to completely own the Brexit deal before the next GE and can then be judged accordingly.

May is a sensible woman and patriot so she may well knows the. She may fear an election increased Tory majority and subsequent Brexit majority. After all she only got the job because Dave won an unexpected majority. She knows how dangerous the Tory backbenches can be.

But she's made of flesh and blood. Corbyn ? A mandate of her own ? A majority big enough to sideline " Bastards ". Who could blame her ?

SouthamObserver

Can anyone outline the major differences that continue to exist between the Conservative party and UKIP?

YellowSubmarine

@peter_from_putney There is no reason at all why in due course the SNP couldn't function as a rather more distant CSU to Labour's CDU. But due course is the independence question being settled definitively for union and Labour being led by someone who can channel English nationalism. Someone who wouldn't work in the Salmond/Sturgeon pocket posters. That's a while off yet.

AlastairMeeks

You can get 16/1 on both 2018 and 2019 with Ladbrokes. I'm on both of these (and on 2017 at 12/1, which I backed when few were considering it).

peter_from_putney

SouthamObserver said:

Can anyone outline the major differences that continue to exist between the Conservative party and UKIP?

Douglas Carswell? (i.e. he's a Tory)

SouthamObserver

Theresa May is a very weak public performer and clearly lacks self-confidence. Corbyn, of course, is a huge liability. But given the immensely low expectations he begins with, head to head with a less than electric May over a three week stretch he may do better than would have been the case if he'd been up against Cameron. Throw in a LibDem revival in the south and there is an outside possibility an early GE might rebound on May and the Tories.

Ally_B

I find it difficult to see why the Conservatives would wish to go for an election in 2017 for two reasons. They would want to get the constituency bill through first and the second is that they would have to explain what their negotiating position for Brexit is to the electorate during any election campaign. I would expect the Opposition parties to make the most of this as any negotiated exit will leave us worse off in the short term. Using tactics leant from the Brexit campaign it shouldn't take much to portray the Government as a bunch of "chancers" willing to put party in front of country, etc, etc. Why won't they tell us what deal they are trying to get unless it is going to be a bad one and so on. No, I can't see any chance of an election until negotiations are complete (and then I expect them to lose it as the costs of Brexit and short term problems arising from it are by then apparent but any benefits come post-vote).

YellowSubmarine

@david_herdson Sure. But these obstacles can be arranged. The Conservatives are perfectly capable of fronting a false flag obstacle. May said there would be no " unnecessary delay " past the end of March on A50. Who decides what's unnecessary ? She does. If the Supreme Court says an Act is needed maybe that just means the deadline goes to April. But May can frame it as a constitutional outrage if she wishes. Then there is the EEA judicial review, the Irish Revocability case etc etc.

There are a lot of enemies of the people out there. May can argue the people need to speak again as soon as she wishes.

YellowSubmarine

@SouthamObserver Lib Dem revivals are always built on the councillor base. A potential LbbDem revival is another reason to go early. They can't rebuild 40 years of lost progress in 4 years but they can't do it n 4 months either.

View_From_Cumbria

OGH is definitely right on this one. In a small way the interest CCHQ is showing in Copeland shows there are no plans for a GE in the first half of the year.

However, the chances are that any GE would show an increased / substantially increased Con majority. So, Theresa is working on the pretence she already has that majority. Then she is waiting for a defeat on something of substance. At that point she can and probably will go to the country. "I sincerely tried to govern, but unfortunately was unable to do so ... ".

When this will be will depend on events. If the Michael Crick stuff comes to fruition then she will not want to fight more than 2 or 3 certain loser by-elections. To my mind that is the only circumstance in which there could be a 2017 GE. Ironically, none of the major parties, except UKIP, want to dwell on this - they all have bodies floating in that stinking pond.

Otherwise she will want to wait for the new boundaries. Who wouldn't ? It is always easier to do the right thing when it is also to your political advantage.

I think the most likely outcome - disregarding the Michael Crick stuff is a full term parliament. Otherwise May 2018 on the new boundaries.

Personally, either May 2017 or May 2018 would bring out the voters for the council elections I will be standing in but May 2018 would be better as the new boundaries give a realistic prospect of a change of MP here in W&L.

OldKingCole

She has a very recent example of a PM 'asking the people’ and expecting to get the result he wanted.

kle4

YellowSubmarine said:

@david_herdson Sure. But these obstacles can be arranged. The Conservatives are perfectly capable of fronting a false flag obstacle. May said there would be no " unnecessary delay " past the end of March on A50. Who decides what's unnecessary ? She does. If the Supreme Court says an Act is needed maybe that just means the deadline goes to April. But May can frame it as a constitutional outrage if she wishes. Then there is the EEA judicial review, the Irish Revocability case etc etc.

There are a lot of enemies of the people out there. May can argue the people need to speak again as soon as she wishes.

Agreed. I still don't think we will get an early ge as there are risks, but the temptation could be huge and there could be plenty of misdirected anger at the courts to exploit, so it's a question of if she can resist.

david_herdson

YellowSubmarine said:

@david_herdson Sure. But these obstacles can be arranged. The Conservatives are perfectly capable of fronting a false flag obstacle. May said there would be no " unnecessary delay " past the end of March on A50. Who decides what's unnecessary ? She does. If the Supreme Court says an Act is needed maybe that just means the deadline goes to April. But May can frame it as a constitutional outrage if she wishes. Then there is the EEA judicial review, the Irish Revocability case etc etc.

There are a lot of enemies of the people out there. May can argue the people need to speak again as soon as she wishes.

Sure, but how? There are only three routes to an early election: a Commons motion, a VoNC or repeal the FTPA.

Of those three, the first requires Labour support, the second risks a Corbyn premiership and the third risks a Lords veto (at least until 2018).

If Labour plays ball over a dissolution motion, fine. If not, then what?

foxinsoxuk

AlastairMeeks said:

You can get 16/1 on both 2018 and 2019 with Ladbrokes. I'm on both of these (and on 2017 at 12/1, which I backed when few were considering it).

I think these worth backing too. May will want to outline her Brexit case and get the new boundaries through, but the wheels are likely to fall off fairly quickly after that.

Labour MPs would back 2017 if it came up, as they would prefer the existing constituencies.

Luckyguy1983

YellowSubmarine said:

I certainly don't want her to call an early Poll and win a substantially increased majority. If she decides to do a Major and struggle through the euro trenches with a small and dwindling majority I'll be grateful to her. We'll get a better scrutinised and less extreme Brexit deal. The Tories will be forced to completely own the Brexit deal before the next GE and can then be judged accordingly.

May is a sensible woman and patriot so she may well knows the. She may fear an election increased Tory majority and subsequent Brexit majority. After all she only got the job because Dave won an unexpected majority. She knows how dangerous the Tory backbenches can be.

But she's made of flesh and blood. Corbyn ? A mandate of her own ? A majority big enough to sideline " Bastards ". Who could blame her ?

Go and kid some people who'll fall for this tripe. You want her to call an election because you're hoping for a Lib Dem surge off the back of a wave of newly energised quinoa fans seeking Brexit payback. That prospect is faintly nauseating but perfectly acceptable as an aspiration here, so stop embarrassing yourself.

YellowSubmarine

@david_herdson The whole issue comes down to whether an opposition can credibly refuse an election and vote to keep it's opponents in power. I'm not convinced they can. Especially one as inept, inadequate and intellectually limited as the Corbyn team.

But I accept this is an art not a science. We'll know more when the Supreme Court rules. But then of course the odds will shift.

HYUFD

May will not hold an election and risk her current majority, especially as beyond Brexit itself which has already been endorsed by referendum she needs no mandate for the EU terms until they have been agreed. Holding and winning a general election in 2020 would also potentially give her 9 years as PM rather than the 6 years she would get if she held it in 2017

peter_from_putney

View_From_Cumbria said:

OGH is definitely right on this one. In a small way the interest CCHQ is showing in Copeland shows there are no plans for a GE in the first half of the year.

However, the chances are that any GE would show an increased / substantially increased Con majority. So, Theresa is working on the pretence she already has that majority. Then she is waiting for a defeat on something of substance. At that point she can and probably will go to the country. "I sincerely tried to govern, but unfortunately was unable to do so ... ".

When this will be will depend on events. If the Michael Crick stuff comes to fruition then she will not want to fight more than 2 or 3 certain loser by-elections. To my mind that is the only circumstance in which there could be a 2017 GE. Ironically, none of the major parties, except UKIP, want to dwell on this - they all have bodies floating in that stinking pond.

Otherwise she will want to wait for the new boundaries. Who wouldn't ? It is always easier to do the right thing when it is also to your political advantage.

I think the most likely outcome - disregarding the Michael Crick stuff is a full term parliament. Otherwise May 2018 on the new boundaries.

Personally, either May 2017 or May 2018 would bring out the voters for the council elections I will be standing in but May 2018 would be better as the new boundaries give a realistic prospect of a change of MP here in W&L.

Welcome VfC .... it's good to have an increased representation from your area.

HYUFD

SO The Tories back some continued budget contributions to the EU unlike UKIP and a job offer system rather than the points system UKIP back. UKIP also still back cutting the top tax rate now

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

I agree that an impending General Election is unlikely. May might try for it if the pressure within her party grows. I do wonder if she might end up being axed sooner rather than later. Probably not, as the heat for the EU will be a serious albatross for any PM, and would-be successors would want her to suffer that, but it could drive her to seek an early election if she thinks she'll be toppled.

rkrkrk

Good points on why an early election is unlikely.
Not sure we have seen enough of May to call her a ditherer though.
Her reshuffle was certainly decisive and she has taken a decision on Hinkley and Heathrow even if she took a bit more time on it.

An election in 2017 would be dominated by Brxit and would expose big divisions in theTory party. It could also leave her with more Tory leaver MPs. Not sure she wants that.

isam

edmundintokyo said:

It would be interesting to do a systematic study on this but I reckon the markets are irrationally biased in favour of things happening. Generally speaking things don't happen, and to the extent that they do happen, it's different things, rather than the thing that you thought might happen.

I'd say you are almost certainly right, and a systematic study is unnecessary. When I worked as a spread betting odds compiler the shrewd winning punters were the ones who bet on nothing to happen/sellers whilst the muggerroos were betting on excitement/things to happen/buyers. They would remember the odd spectacular win, but be net losers. Sporting Index are known for not tolerating sellers.

Its why Bookies price up specials and only offer one side of the bet. When they do that its often a giveaway that its not value

HYUFD

MD In my view May will outlast Cameron as PM. Of her rivals Osborne's chances died with the Remain defeat and Fox and Davis would not be accepted by Tory Remainers and Boris would not either while he would also get the EU's back up. Just as Major held on as Heseltine, Redwood and Portillo would have split the party so will May until she loses a general election which at the moment looks at least around a decade away

SouthamObserver

@HYUFD - so literally no difference between UKIP and Tory right. And nuance for the rest.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. HYUFD, not so sure about Osborne. Could see him returning.

DecrepitJohnL

OldKingCole said:

She has a very recent example of a PM 'asking the people’ and expecting to get the result he wanted.

And at 60, Theresa May is just about old enough to remember the same thing happening to Ted Heath when he called and lost his "who governs?" election in 1974.

YBarddCwsc

"An election in 2017 would be dominated by Brxit and would expose big divisions in theTory party. '

That is true, but it is just as true of the other parties.

But, I think the boundary changes are too big a prize. They doubly benefit the Tories, as the losses accrue mainly to Labour, and the redrawn seats will involve bitter Labour selection battles (Copeland is a harbinger of what is to come).

HYUFD

No a rather significant difference between the Tory leadership, who will actually agree the Brexit terms and UKIP. May still does not back the hard Brexit UKIP want even if she opposes the soft Brexit the LDs and ardent Remainers want too

YellowSubmarine

@Luckyguy1983 Unless you are psychic you have to do better than that when calling me a liar. I've consistently argued the best reason for May to engineer #Mayday is because she'd win big. Every scrap of polling evidence points to that. So just calling me a liar isn't good enough. Why am I lying and what is your evidence ?

Unless your decent to particularly poor quality as hominem was deliberate rather than careless that is ?

Moses_

Stunned that Debbie Reynolds has also now gone. Had to read the headline over and over. Had a stroke apparently.

Has 2016 got anything else to throw at us? New Year's Eve cannot come quickly enough.

DecrepitJohnL

HYUFD said:

MD In my view May will outlast Cameron as PM. Of her rivals Osborne's chances died with the Remain defeat and Fox and Davis would not be accepted by Tory Remainers and Boris would not either while he would also get the EU's back up. Just as Major held on as Heseltine, Redwood and Portillo would have split the party so will May until she loses a general election which at the moment looks at least around a decade away

It would not greatly surprise me if Theresa May steps down in 2020.

The Prime Minister would be 64 to 69 years old if she then serves a full term, and she might prefer a quiet retirement with a seven-figure advance on her memoirs and the odd six-figure speaking fee to keep the wolf from the door. Against that is the obvious lure of power that kept Blair and Thatcher clinging to office but Theresa May is not obviously an ideologue on a mission.

MarqueeMark

SouthamObserver said:

Theresa May is a very weak public performer and clearly lacks self-confidence. Corbyn, of course, is a huge liability. But given the immensely low expectations he begins with, head to head with a less than electric May over a three week stretch he may do better than would have been the case if he'd been up against Cameron. Throw in a LibDem revival in the south and there is an outside possibility an early GE might rebound on May and the Tories.

Corbyn is an easily-angered man with a back catalogue of beliefs which are repulsive to the general public. Whenever held, a Labour election campaign will be on the back-foot from the get-go, on the economy and the EU and the personal convictions of those at the top. To calculate otherwise is wishful thinking of the highest order

And it is quite possible that a hard-fought Tory campaign in Copeland will be an exercise in trying to push voters' buttons in order to better frame an early election.

ydoethur

Have read all the comments on the difficulties of getting an early election with interest. However, I believe it would be feasible via a commons vote.

True, the Jezziah will never co-operate over it. There is however an entirely realistic scenario that Labour MPs might co-operate for two reasons (1) an election will destroy Corbyn (yes it will - he will lose and lose badly) (2) it would be fought on the old boundaries which would both stymie deselection and favour Labour in key areas.

417 is the key number. Add the DUP and probably Carswell to 80 Labour rebels (less than half the number who voted against Corbyn this year) and it's not a ridiculously long way off.

Moreover, Labour MPs voting for an election on Brexit would spike UKIP's guns in Labour heartlands. If they vote to block it, the risk of a split vote increases markedly.

HYUFD

MD As Foreign Secretary maybe but as PM next to no chance

ThreeQuidder

MikeSmithson said:

@CarlottaVance Oh an optimist. You think LAB will make 2nd

Of course. Assuming May delivers on the Leave vote, UKIP won't feature, and there isn't anyone else. Unless the SNP start standing in England, I suppose.

HYUFD

DJ If elected she is likely to serve out her term in my view, if she remained PM until 2025 only Thatcher and Blair would have been in Downing Street longer since WW2

Bromptonaut

HYUFD said:

No a rather significant difference between the Tory leadership, who will actually agree the Brexit terms and UKIP. May still does not back the hard Brexit UKIP want even if she opposes the soft Brexit the LDs and ardent Remainers want too

What type of Brexit does May want then, O all-knowing one? Mushy?

ThreeQuidder

ydoethur said:

Have read all the comments on the difficulties of getting an early election with interest. However, I believe it would be feasible via a commons vote.

True, the Jezziah will never co-operate over it. There is however an entirely realistic scenario that Labour MPs might co-operate for two reasons (1) an election will destroy Corbyn (yes it will - he will lose and lose badly) (2) it would be fought on the old boundaries which would both stymie deselection and favour Labour in key areas.

417 is the key number. Add the DUP and probably Carswell to 80 Labour rebels (less than half the number who voted against Corbyn this year) and it's not a ridiculously long way off.

I believe it's 434 - s2(1)(b) specifies "two thirds of the number of seats in the House (including vacant seats)" so the SF seats count towards the denominator.

TheScreamingEagles

I think we're underestimating the probability of Mrs May being forced to hold an early election against her wishes because the Tory majority is wiped out because of some known events and other unknown events.

Add in the House of Lords being buggers.

HYUFD

Bromptonaut Neither so hard she loses half her votes to the LDs or so soft she loses half her votes to UKIP

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, zombie attack in the heart of Westminster?

Innocent_Abroad

test

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, zombie attack in the heart of Westminster?

Well I have heard the House of Lords described as a Zombie paradise.

TheScreamingEagles

I see Jeremy Corbyn has been reading my comments on PB and compared Mrs May to Henry VIII

Bromptonaut

HYUFD said:

Bromptonaut Neither so hard she loses half her votes to the LDs or so soft she loses half her votes to UKIP

Oh that. Oh of course. Straddling the Unicorn.

TheScreamingEagles

So does Mrs May want to abrogate the Good Friday agreement?

That'll be a nice legacy for her to have, to be spoken in the same breath as the Real IRA.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

So does Mrs May want to abrogate the Good Friday agreement?

That'll be a nice legacy for her to have, to be spoken in the same breath as the Real IRA.

For people who have spent their life ignoring the place remainers suddenly seem concerned about NI and its people.

If it were that much of a priority maybe you should be regularly contesting all the seats there.

HYUFD

Bromptonaut Pretty much, that was why she won the leadership in the first place

TOPPING

Punters schmunters what do they know. Every political event we hear "implied probability" is this or that but, as I have said before, they can in no way be more informed than us and we fight like cats in a sack over the outcome of each of those eventually.

The betting markets are not a good indicator of political events.

Innocent_Abroad

HYUFD - can you "win" a walk-over?

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So does Mrs May want to abrogate the Good Friday agreement?

That'll be a nice legacy for her to have, to be spoken in the same breath as the Real IRA.

For people who have spent their life ignoring the place remainers suddenly seem concerned about NI and its people.

If it were that much of a priority maybe you should be regularly contesting all the seats there.

Dave and George did care about it, and we did contest seats there in 2010, had we contested seats there in 2015, Norn Iron would have been Blue.

Alanbrooke

what total guff

The conservatives did a stupid deal with the UU instead of standing in their own right, in effect they pulled out and left the field to the sectarian parties.

And last time I looked the Remainers werent just conservatives, what happened the rest of your cohorts with their pseudo concern about NI ?

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

what total guff

The conservatives did a stupid deal with the UU instead of standing in their own right, in effect they pulled out and left the field to the sectarian parties.

And last time I looked the Remainers werent just conservatives, what happened the rest of your cohorts with their pseudo concern about NI ?

It isn't pseudo concern, we do care about Norn Iron. When that part of the UK is restless it impacts the rest of the UK.

Hard to think now but back in 2000 my mother didn't want me taking a job in London because of the IRA regularly bombed it.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, so because Blair was either stupid or sought to forever 'dock' the UK in the EU, do you think we should remain members forever because of the way the Good Friday Agreement is written?

Alanbrooke

LOL

it's been restless for the last 200 years and nobody much cares.

As for bombing London that's simply accelerated urban redevelopment

ydoethur

ThreeQuidder said:

ydoethur said:

Have read all the comments on the difficulties of getting an early election with interest. However, I believe it would be feasible via a commons vote.

True, the Jezziah will never co-operate over it. There is however an entirely realistic scenario that Labour MPs might co-operate for two reasons (1) an election will destroy Corbyn (yes it will - he will lose and lose badly) (2) it would be fought on the old boundaries which would both stymie deselection and favour Labour in key areas.

417 is the key number. Add the DUP and probably Carswell to 80 Labour rebels (less than half the number who voted against Corbyn this year) and it's not a ridiculously long way off.

I believe it's 434 - s2(1)(b) specifies "two thirds of the number of seats in the House (including vacant seats)" so the SF seats count towards the denominator.

Yes, sorry, morning head on - had divided 51 by three and then put that number in instead of doubling it for two-thirds.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, so because Blair was either stupid or sought to forever 'dock' the UK in the EU, do you think we should remain members forever because of the way the Good Friday Agreement is written?

The ECHR is something that existed long before the EC/EU and we were signatories back in the early 1950s.

Bromptonaut

HYUFD said:

Bromptonaut Pretty much, that was why she won the leadership in the first place

I didn't realise UKIP and the Lib Dems had a vote in the Tory leadership contest.

You have great faith in the skills of the Empress' tailor.

Theuniondivvie

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/814406639033913345

5-4-3-2-1:
'This polling is meaningless/skewed/unrepresentative/voodoo'

isam

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/814406639033913345

5-4-3-2-1:
'This polling is meaningless/skewed/unrepresentative/voodoo'

Fair enough, lets stay in

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

LOL

it's been restless for the last 200 years and nobody much cares.

As for bombing London that's simply accelerated urban redevelopment

Well Sir John Major did care.

As for urban development, it is often remarked the best thing to happen in Manchester in recent times is the IRA bombing Manchester City Centre in 1996, which led to lots of improvements and regeneration in Manchester.

Perhaps John McDonnell was right, we should start honouring the IRA.

david_herdson

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

I agree that an impending General Election is unlikely. May might try for it if the pressure within her party grows. I do wonder if she might end up being axed sooner rather than later. Probably not, as the heat for the EU will be a serious albatross for any PM, and would-be successors would want her to suffer that, but it could drive her to seek an early election if she thinks she'll be toppled.

May won't be axed because there's no obviously better candidate.

Boris? Too flaky and no attention to detail.
Hammond? May without the charisma.
Rudd? Lightweight.
Osborne? Unappealing to the public (maybe he should do Strictly)
Gove? Has handed out too many knives to be trusted.
Hunt? Negotiating with the BMA might be good practice for the EU but no great track record and still a bit punchable.
Davidson? Untested and out of Westminster.
Javid? Underwhelming.
Fox/Davis/IDS? History says don't go there.

And so on.

All the alternatives have too much history, too little talent or are simply paler versions of the incumbent.

David_Evershed

SouthamObserver said:

Theresa May is a very weak public performer and clearly lacks self-confidence. Corbyn, of course, is a huge liability. But given the immensely low expectations he begins with, head to head with a less than electric May over a three week stretch he may do better than would have been the case if he'd been up against Cameron. Throw in a LibDem revival in the south and there is an outside possibility an early GE might rebound on May and the Tories.

May's performance at PMQs shows she does not lack confidence. All previous PMs have said what a tough gig PMQs is.

david_herdson

SouthamObserver said:

@HYUFD - so literally no difference between UKIP and Tory right. And nuance for the rest.

If so, you should be glad there's a split between the two parties then. 53% or so would be a hell of a general election share (although in reality, even if the two parties stood on identical platforms, by no means would all voters of both parties be transferable between them).

isam

david_herdson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

I agree that an impending General Election is unlikely. May might try for it if the pressure within her party grows. I do wonder if she might end up being axed sooner rather than later. Probably not, as the heat for the EU will be a serious albatross for any PM, and would-be successors would want her to suffer that, but it could drive her to seek an early election if she thinks she'll be toppled.

May won't be axed because there's no obviously better candidate.

Boris? Too flaky and no attention to detail.
Hammond? May without the charisma.
Rudd? Lightweight.
Osborne? Unappealing to the public (maybe he should do Strictly)
Gove? Has handed out too many knives to be trusted.
Hunt? Negotiating with the BMA might be good practice for the EU but no great track record and still a bit punchable.
Davidson? Untested and out of Westminster.
Javid? Underwhelming.
Fox/Davis/IDS? History says don't go there.

And so on.

All the alternatives have too much history, too little talent or are simply paler versions of the incumbent.

The constant whining, sulking and bitching from the referendum losers is almost making me wish for Cameron to come back and us to stay in the EU.

That might have been a project fear story that would have worked.... If we vote to leave, 48% of the nation will act like spoilt brat teenagers, forever stomping their feet and saying its not fair/no one understands them

david_herdson

Moses_ said:

Stunned that Debbie Reynolds has also now gone. Had to read the headline over and over. Had a stroke apparently.

Has 2016 got anything else to throw at us? New Year's Eve cannot come quickly enough.

How's the Queen's cold clearing up?

Theuniondivvie

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/814406639033913345

5-4-3-2-1:
'This polling is meaningless/skewed/unrepresentative/voodoo'

Fair enough, lets stay in

Cool, welcome aboard.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Herdson, a man's ambition and his competence are not necessarily related.

David_Evershed

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So does Mrs May want to abrogate the Good Friday agreement?

That'll be a nice legacy for her to have, to be spoken in the same breath as the Real IRA.

For people who have spent their life ignoring the place remainers suddenly seem concerned about NI and its people.

If it were that much of a priority maybe you should be regularly contesting all the seats there.

It's the Conservative and Unionist party.

isam

Can he afford the pay cut?

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/814410421373468672

Alanbrooke

@DEvershed

I didnt know remainers had their own party

odd name for it

David_Evershed

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

MD In my view May will outlast Cameron as PM. Of her rivals Osborne's chances died with the Remain defeat and Fox and Davis would not be accepted by Tory Remainers and Boris would not either while he would also get the EU's back up. Just as Major held on as Heseltine, Redwood and Portillo would have split the party so will May until she loses a general election which at the moment looks at least around a decade away

It would not greatly surprise me if Theresa May steps down in 2020.

The Prime Minister would be 64 to 69 years old if she then serves a full term, and she might prefer a quiet retirement with a seven-figure advance on her memoirs and the odd six-figure speaking fee to keep the wolf from the door. Against that is the obvious lure of power that kept Blair and Thatcher clinging to office but Theresa May is not obviously an ideologue on a mission.

As John Major was to Thatcher

Greg Clark is to May.

TOPPING

isam said:

Can he afford the pay cut?

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/814410421373468672

Had him in the low give a shit group politics-wise, not an obvious choice.

David_Evershed

Alanbrooke said:

@DEvershed

I didnt know remainers had their own party

odd name for it

Different spelling.

Unionist not Eunionist.

Ishmael_Z

Theuniondivvie said:

hps://twitter.com/Independent/status/814406639033913345

5-4-3-2-1:
'This polling is meaningless/skewed/unrepresentative/voodoo'

/all of the above. There are 13 countries there, presumably the other 15 have left and no one noticed or were too wee, too poor and too stupid to be worth asking?

david_herdson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, so because Blair was either stupid or sought to forever 'dock' the UK in the EU, do you think we should remain members forever because of the way the Good Friday Agreement is written?

The ECHR is something that existed long before the EC/EU and we were signatories back in the early 1950s.

Of a sort, although in fact the European Convention on Human Rights only came into force on 3 Sept 1953, whereas the ECSC - the first direct predecessor of what has become the EU - was established on 23 July 1952.

In reality, both were developed at the same time as the post-war European infrastructure was developed; both can also be seen as different but complementary answers to the same problem of how to prevent what just happened from happening again.

david_herdson

Innocent_Abroad said:

HYUFD - can you "win" a walk-over?

There were four other candidates. The votes were among MPs.

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

So does Mrs May want to abrogate the Good Friday agreement?

That'll be a nice legacy for her to have, to be spoken in the same breath as the Real IRA.

A cross-party consensus between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn on this point.

SouthamObserver

@David_Evershed - May's PMQ performances are so dire Corbyn regularly gets the best of her. She struggles even to deliver pre-prepared lines effectively. If that is not down to a lack self-confidence she's even worse than I thought.

HurstLlama

Cameron lined up as the UK candidate for the NATO job? Someone is having a laugh. What possible qualification does he have for the post? Ok, he presided over two fairly disastrous rounds of defence cuts, broke his pre-2010 promise to service personnel, and took us into a war, in which he stretched a UN resolution far beyond its limits, that has caused untold mayhem and anarchy in North Africa and that has spilled over into Southern Europe. He has also proved himself useless at international negotiations.

I think the General Secretary of NATO is going to need a bit better CV than that.

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So does Mrs May want to abrogate the Good Friday agreement?

That'll be a nice legacy for her to have, to be spoken in the same breath as the Real IRA.

A cross-party consensus between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn on this point.

I feel a thread could be written on that.

Do you want to write it or shall I?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Observer, I agree with much of that (don't watch PMQs much anymore, though), but your use of 'pre-prepared' is a crime against the English language and you should thrash yourself with a flail as penance.

Morris_Dancer

F1: interestingly, Bottas' odds have lengthened a little to 1.25 on Betfair, to join Mercedes.

I only have a little in my account, but if you're Captain Moneybags and don't mind risking for a low return, those odds do look too long to me, if anything from the whispering market is right.

david_herdson

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Herdson, a man's ambition and his competence are not necessarily related.

True. An electorate with an interest in keeping their seats ought to act as something of a gatekeeper against the talentless though.

TOPPING

HurstLlama said:

Cameron lined up as the UK candidate for the NATO job? Someone is having a laugh. What possible qualification does he have for the post? Ok, he presided over two fairly disastrous rounds of defence cuts, broke his pre-2010 promise to service personnel, and took us into a war, in which he stretched a UN resolution far beyond its limits, that has caused untold mayhem and anarchy in North Africa and that has spilled over into Southern Europe. He has also proved himself useless at international negotiations.

I think the General Secretary of NATO is going to need a bit better CV than that.

I find it difficult to believe he would want it but I think he is perfectly qualified. A people person who has not inconsiderable charm.


He doesn't have to be an admiral, does he.

Mortimer

SouthamObserver said:

@David_Evershed - May's PMQ performances are so dire Corbyn regularly gets the best of her. She struggles even to deliver pre-prepared lines effectively. If that is not down to a lack self-confidence she's even worse than I thought.

She is pretty much up to the level of most PMs (excepting Cameron and Blair) without having the experience of being an opposition leader for a lengthy period.

Strikes me that many orange book Tories and many centrist Labourites are protesting too much about May. Suggests to me that they're properly scared about her abilities to broker Brexit and win a general election. They should be. As far as I can see she'll be much more in tune with the British public outside of the unrepresentative cities than any leader since Major or Thatcher. Election winner written all over her.

But it would be foolish to go before the boundary changes are in place. The out of date position needs to be corrected.