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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theoretically at least TMay is the leader with biggest challen

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theoretically at least TMay is the leader with biggest challenge keeping support together over BREXIT

While most pundits appear to have focused on Labour’s problems over BREXIT let’s not forgot that the Tory support base is even more divided. YouGov’s latest BREXIT tracker published yesterday had the above splits in party supporters view of the issue that’s set to define British politics.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited January 2017
    Yup and there's never been an history of the Tory party splitting over trade and tariffs.

    Oh
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Second like Tories in Copeland!
  • 2nd like LDs in Copeland.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots and will support whatever Brexit settlement we end up with, even if it's not brilliant.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Goupillon said:

    2nd like LDs in Copeland.

    ie 3rd
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2017
    This is a misreading. The Conservative Party and its supporters were divided on the merits or otherwise of Brexit, and naturally most people haven't changed their mind on that (why should they?). But I would say that the overwhelming majority of those Conservatives who voted Remain accept the result and think that Theresa May should get on with implementing the decision. I don't think there is much, if any, appetite for a LibDemish attempt to undo or sabotage the democratic decision.
  • foxinsoxuk - you are being very optimistic!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots and will support whatever Brexit settlement we end up with, even if it's not brilliant.

    Since when did patriotism mean 'my policy, right or wrong'?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Afternoon all :)

    On topic, wouldn't it be a hoot if the LDs and UKIP topped the poll at the 2020 GE with the Conservatives and Labour scrapping for third ?

    Apropos nothing much - petrol up again here in lowland East London to 115.9p a litre. We have in the past remarked on the correlation between fuel prices and Government support - if devaluation means higher pump prices...

    On an unrelated, walked past Poundland in East Ham High Street - they have a sale but while some goods are down to 50p, there is now a 25p area. In I go eager for a bargain and what do I find - Christmas decorations, Christmas chocolate and Dog Advent Calendars.

    Yes, that's right - the pinnacle of modern civilisation - a Dog Advent Calendar, yours for 25p. Brilliant, I thought but as I reached for one, I was hit by the cold wet fish of reality...

    We don't have a dog....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited January 2017

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots and will support whatever Brexit settlement we end up with, even if it's not brilliant.

    Since when did patriotism mean 'my policy, right or wrong'?
    Quite a lot of the time, I'm afraid..
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Goupillon said:

    foxinsoxuk - you are being very optimistic!

    I am on a Labour win there, but expect LDs in 3rd.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    But I would say that the overwhelming majority of those Conservatives who voted Remain accept the result and think that Theresa May should get on with implementing the decision.

    That's not the issue. The question is what these people will think when she gets on with it, and it turns out to be none of the things that were promised and is clearly failing.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    On topic, wouldn't it be a hoot if the LDs and UKIP topped the poll at the 2020 GE with the Conservatives and Labour scrapping for third ?

    Apropos nothing much - petrol up again here in lowland East London to 115.9p a litre. We have in the past remarked on the correlation between fuel prices and Government support - if devaluation means higher pump prices...

    On an unrelated, walked past Poundland in East Ham High Street - they have a sale but while some goods are down to 50p, there is now a 25p area. In I go eager for a bargain and what do I find - Christmas decorations, Christmas chocolate and Dog Advent Calendars.

    Yes, that's right - the pinnacle of modern civilisation - a Dog Advent Calendar, yours for 25p. Brilliant, I thought but as I reached for one, I was hit by the cold wet fish of reality...

    We don't have a dog....

    You would have about 11 months to find one though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots and will support whatever Brexit settlement we end up with, even if it's not brilliant.

    Since when did patriotism mean 'my policy, right or wrong'?
    When hasn't it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2017
    Yes but given 65% of Tory voters voted Leave and 62% of Copeland voters voted Leave May is more under threat from UKIP than the LDs if she is not seen as being hard enough on Brexit. Given 69% of Labour voters voted Remain Corbyn contrary to popular wisdom is more threatened by the LDs than UKIP if he is not seen as being pro Remain enough (it was Tory and UKIP voters who made up the bulk of the Leave vote in Labour seats)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    It would be interesting to see the Labour split sub-divided into ABC1C2DE.

    Also, a chunk of 2015 Labour 'right to leave' voters will now appear in the UKIP allocation, based on current voting intention.
  • That's not the issue. The question is what these people will think when she gets on with it, and it turns out to be none of the things that were promised and is clearly failing.

    Well, those who voted Remain will think 'I was right'. And those who voted Leave will blame the EU for being difficult, and think it vindicates their support for Leave.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots and will support whatever Brexit settlement we end up with, even if it's not brilliant.

    Since when did patriotism mean 'my policy, right or wrong'?
    When hasn't it?
    Your premise is that Remain supporting Tories will vote for May no matter how lacking in brilliance Brexit proves to be.

    The historical evidence is that when Tory policy on Europe fails, the voters give them an almighty kicking.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    That's not the issue. The question is what these people will think when she gets on with it, and it turns out to be none of the things that were promised and is clearly failing.

    Well, those who voted Remain will think 'I was right'. And those who voted Leave will blame the EU for being difficult, and think it vindicates their support for Leave.
    Will they blame the EU for the rest of the world's disinterested reaction to Brexit and visible snubs to the UK, or will they treat it as a wake up call?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    I feel that UKIP is being overstated and that the UKIP threat to labour has yet to be seen anywhere significant. apart from a by election scare a few years back and the Brexit vote, which is very very hard to read a desertion into, i cannot see UKIP hoovering up Labour consitut
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
    Yes, you are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    I feel that UKIP is being overstated and that the UKIP threat to labour has yet to be seen anywhere significant. apart from a by election scare a few years back and the Brexit vote, which is very very hard to read a desertion into, i cannot see UKIP hoovering up Labour constituencies without any party organisation, funding or decent membership.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
    Yes, you are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear.
    No British patriot would pursue a course which makes its long-term dissolution inevitable. If you look in the mirror you'll see an English nationalist staring back at you.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr Rentool,

    "It would be interesting to see the Labour split sub-divided into ABC1C2DE."

    Regional splits would be interesting too. Here in the NW, the seat went 58 -42 to Leave and there's a 20,000 plus Labour majority.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots and will support whatever Brexit settlement we end up with, even if it's not brilliant.

    Since when did patriotism mean 'my policy, right or wrong'?
    When hasn't it?
    Your premise is that Remain supporting Tories will vote for May no matter how lacking in brilliance Brexit proves to be.

    The historical evidence is that when Tory policy on Europe fails, the voters give them an almighty kicking.
    Yes. As I said most Tories are patriots and will accept the settlement good or bad. We will "make the best of it". Something you clearly don't understand as a weird EU federalist.

    Unlikely.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,045

    That's not the issue. The question is what these people will think when she gets on with it, and it turns out to be none of the things that were promised and is clearly failing.

    Well, those who voted Remain will think 'I was right'. And those who voted Leave will blame the EU for being difficult, and think it vindicates their support for Leave.
    Will they blame the EU for the rest of the world's disinterested reaction to Brexit and visible snubs to the UK, or will they treat it as a wake up call?
    I think you mean uninterested. Distinterested has a totally different meaning.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    edited January 2017

    That's not the issue. The question is what these people will think when she gets on with it, and it turns out to be none of the things that were promised and is clearly failing.

    Well, those who voted Remain will think 'I was right'. And those who voted Leave will blame the EU for being difficult, and think it vindicates their support for Leave.
    Will they blame the EU for the rest of the world's disinterested reaction to Brexit and visible snubs to the UK, or will they treat it as a wake up call?
    I think you mean uninterested. Distinterested has a totally different meaning.
    On reflection yes it would fit the sentence better.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited January 2017
    CD13 said:

    Mr Rentool,

    "It would be interesting to see the Labour split sub-divided into ABC1C2DE."

    Regional splits would be interesting too. Here in the NW, the seat went 58 -42 to Leave and there's a 20,000 plus Labour majority.

    So what you're saying is your constituency has a history of consistently voting for the wrong option.

    Time for the vote to be severely restricted, to the educated, the high earners, and those who change their undies on a daily basis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2017
    WG Actually the last poll on the subject from Opinium had English voters backing soft Brexit alongside Scots despite England having voted Leave but Welsh voters backing hard Brexit. So actually it is the Welsh who most want a tough anti immigration no single market Brexit
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
    Yes, you are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear.
    No British patriot would pursue a course which makes its long-term dissolution inevitable. If you look in the mirror you'll see an English nationalist staring back at you.
    Support for Scotland leaving is lower than at the time of the 2014 referendum. I don't see NI leaving or RoI attempting any kind of reunification. Don't mix up your hopes and dreams of the destruction of this fair nation for reality.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,045

    That's not the issue. The question is what these people will think when she gets on with it, and it turns out to be none of the things that were promised and is clearly failing.

    Well, those who voted Remain will think 'I was right'. And those who voted Leave will blame the EU for being difficult, and think it vindicates their support for Leave.
    Will they blame the EU for the rest of the world's disinterested reaction to Brexit and visible snubs to the UK, or will they treat it as a wake up call?
    I think you mean uninterested. Distinterested has a totally different meaning.
    No I mean disinterested. Irrelevant to their preoccupations.
    disinterested
    dɪsˈɪnt(ə)rɪstɪd/
    adjective
    adjective: disinterested

    1.
    not influenced by considerations of personal advantage.
    "a banker is under an obligation to give disinterested advice"
    synonyms: unbiased, unprejudiced, impartial, neutral, non-partisan, non-discriminatory, detached, uninvolved, objective, dispassionate, impersonal, clinical; More
    open-minded, fair, just, equitable, balanced, even-handed, unselfish, selfless;
    free from discrimination, with no axe to grind, without fear or favour
    "she is offering disinterested advice"
    antonyms: biased
    2.
    having or feeling no interest in something; uninterested.
    "her father was so disinterested in her progress that he only visited the school once"
    synonyms: uninterested, indifferent, incurious, unconcerned, unmoved, unresponsive, impassive, passive, detached, unfeeling, uncaring, unenthusiastic, lukewarm, bored, apathetic, blasé, nonchalant; informalcouldn't-care-less
    "he looked at her with disinterested eyes"
    antonyms: interested

    Origin
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited January 2017
    Mr Eagles,

    "Time for the vote to be severely restricted, to the educated, the high earners, and those who change their undies on a daily basis."

    Two out of three ain't bad. Do I get a vote?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    That's not the issue. The question is what these people will think when she gets on with it, and it turns out to be none of the things that were promised and is clearly failing.

    Well, those who voted Remain will think 'I was right'. And those who voted Leave will blame the EU for being difficult, and think it vindicates their support for Leave.
    Will they blame the EU for the rest of the world's disinterested reaction to Brexit and visible snubs to the UK, or will they treat it as a wake up call?
    I think you mean uninterested. Distinterested has a totally different meaning.
    No I mean disinterested. Irrelevant to their preoccupations.
    disinterested
    dɪsˈɪnt(ə)rɪstɪd/
    adjective
    adjective: disinterested

    1.
    not influenced by considerations of personal advantage.
    "a banker is under an obligation to give disinterested advice"
    synonyms: unbiased, unprejudiced, impartial, neutral, non-partisan, non-discriminatory, detached, uninvolved, objective, dispassionate, impersonal, clinical; More
    open-minded, fair, just, equitable, balanced, even-handed, unselfish, selfless;
    free from discrimination, with no axe to grind, without fear or favour
    "she is offering disinterested advice"
    antonyms: biased
    2.
    having or feeling no interest in something; uninterested.
    "her father was so disinterested in her progress that he only visited the school once"
    synonyms: uninterested, indifferent, incurious, unconcerned, unmoved, unresponsive, impassive, passive, detached, unfeeling, uncaring, unenthusiastic, lukewarm, bored, apathetic, blasé, nonchalant; informalcouldn't-care-less
    "he looked at her with disinterested eyes"
    antonyms: interested


    Origin
    Did you read your definition?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
    Yes, you are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear.
    No British patriot would pursue a course which makes its long-term dissolution inevitable. If you look in the mirror you'll see an English nationalist staring back at you.
    Support for Scotland leaving is lower than at the time of the 2014 referendum. I don't see NI leaving or RoI attempting any kind of reunification. Don't mix up your hopes and dreams of the destruction of this fair nation for reality.
    You need to raise your glance about the short term. Part of the British Isles, and former part of the UK, is already a successful member of the Eurozone. A failed policy of detachment from the EU imposed by an inflexible Westminster government will make it harder to justify maintaining the Union for long.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,045

    That's not the issue. The question is what these people will think when she gets on with it, and it turns out to be none of the things that were promised and is clearly failing.

    Well, those who voted Remain will think 'I was right'. And those who voted Leave will blame the EU for being difficult, and think it vindicates their support for Leave.
    Will they blame the EU for the rest of the world's disinterested reaction to Brexit and visible snubs to the UK, or will they treat it as a wake up call?
    I think you mean uninterested. Distinterested has a totally different meaning.
    No I mean disinterested. Irrelevant to their preoccupations.
    disinterested
    dɪsˈɪnt(ə)rɪstɪd/
    adjective
    adjective: disinterested

    1.
    not influenced by considerations of personal advantage.
    "a banker is under an obligation to give disinterested advice"
    synonyms: unbiased, unprejudiced, impartial, neutral, non-partisan, non-discriminatory, detached, uninvolved, objective, dispassionate, impersonal, clinical; More
    open-minded, fair, just, equitable, balanced, even-handed, unselfish, selfless;
    free from discrimination, with no axe to grind, without fear or favour
    "she is offering disinterested advice"
    antonyms: biased
    2.
    having or feeling no interest in something; uninterested.
    "her father was so disinterested in her progress that he only visited the school once"
    synonyms: uninterested, indifferent, incurious, unconcerned, unmoved, unresponsive, impassive, passive, detached, unfeeling, uncaring, unenthusiastic, lukewarm, bored, apathetic, blasé, nonchalant; informalcouldn't-care-less
    "he looked at her with disinterested eyes"
    antonyms: interested


    Origin
    Did you read your definition?
    Yes, I did. Secondary definitions often arise because general ignorance introduces them into common parlance. In this case, since disinterested has a clear and important meaning that is contrary to the meaning of uninterested, and is therefore very liable to confuse the issue if used in its place, I thought you'd be glad of the clarification. You're welcome.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Re robots

    Number of robots working in Amazon warehouses:

    2016: 45,000
    2015: 30K
    2014: 15K
    2013: 1K

    @JonErlichman #CES2017 https://t.co/TxZs3ybR4g
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Odd figures for the Lib Dems. you would have thought that given their supposed resurgence in the South West, there'd be more Leavers. i can only think that it's one or more of:

    1. There are almost no Lib Dem Leavers elsewhere in the country
    2. The rise in support in the SW has come from mopping up Remainers
    3. The polling is a bit duff
    4. The local election results are not transferring over to GE VI.

    How difficult the Leave/Remain split is also depends on:

    - How deeply the division is held by the respective camps within the support, and
    - What the nature of the division is among *potential* voters for each party too i.e. is the party actively driving away potential supporters given their stance, and if so, will there be secondary effects resulting from underperformance in elections and polls?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,045

    That's not the issue. The question is what these people will think when she gets on with it, and it turns out to be none of the things that were promised and is clearly failing.

    Well, those who voted Remain will think 'I was right'. And those who voted Leave will blame the EU for being difficult, and think it vindicates their support for Leave.
    Will they blame the EU for the rest of the world's disinterested reaction to Brexit and visible snubs to the UK, or will they treat it as a wake up call?
    I think you mean uninterested. Distinterested has a totally different meaning.
    On reflection yes it would fit the sentence better.
    Ugh, now I feel guilty for being a pedant.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
    Yes, you are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear.
    No British patriot would pursue a course which makes its long-term dissolution inevitable. If you look in the mirror you'll see an English nationalist staring back at you.
    Support for Scotland leaving is lower than at the time of the 2014 referendum. I don't see NI leaving or RoI attempting any kind of reunification. Don't mix up your hopes and dreams of the destruction of this fair nation for reality.
    You need to raise your glance about the short term. Part of the British Isles, and former part of the UK, is already a successful member of the Eurozone. A failed policy of detachment from the EU imposed by an inflexible Westminster government will make it harder to justify maintaining the Union for long.
    Again, you are confusing what you hope will happen after Brexit with what might or might not happen. We all do it from time to time. You hope that Brexit will be bad and you hope that the EU will be successful and you hope that NI and Scotland will leave for the EU. Those are your hopes, not reality. In reality Brexit will be middling, some good aspects and some bad, the EU will continue to struggle on with its many crises and Scotland and NI will continue in the Union because there is just no alternative which allows them to trade freely with their 80-85% trading partners, England and Wales.

    Over time we will become more detached from the EU and our trade will look a lot more like global GDP shares with EU trade falling below 30% at which point the last ties will get cut. Hopefully.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    That's not the issue. The question is what these people will think when she gets on with it, and it turns out to be none of the things that were promised and is clearly failing.

    Well, those who voted Remain will think 'I was right'. And those who voted Leave will blame the EU for being difficult, and think it vindicates their support for Leave.
    Will they blame the EU for the rest of the world's disinterested reaction to Brexit and visible snubs to the UK, or will they treat it as a wake up call?
    I think you mean uninterested. Distinterested has a totally different meaning.
    No I mean disinterested. Irrelevant to their preoccupations.
    disinterested
    dɪsˈɪnt(ə)rɪstɪd/
    adjective
    adjective: disinterested

    1.
    not influenced by considerations of personal advantage.
    "a banker is under an obligation to give disinterested advice"
    synonyms: unbiased, unprejudiced, impartial, neutral, non-partisan, non-discriminatory, detached, uninvolved, objective, dispassionate, impersonal, clinical; More
    open-minded, fair, just, equitable, balanced, even-handed, unselfish, selfless;
    free from discrimination, with no axe to grind, without fear or favour
    "she is offering disinterested advice"
    antonyms: biased
    2.
    having or feeling no interest in something; uninterested.
    "her father was so disinterested in her progress that he only visited the school once"
    synonyms: uninterested, indifferent, incurious, unconcerned, unmoved, unresponsive, impassive, passive, detached, unfeeling, uncaring, unenthusiastic, lukewarm, bored, apathetic, blasé, nonchalant; informalcouldn't-care-less
    "he looked at her with disinterested eyes"
    antonyms: interested


    Origin
    Did you read your definition?
    Yes, I did. Secondary definitions often arise because general ignorance introduces them into common parlance. In this case, since disinterested has a clear and important meaning that is contrary to the meaning of uninterested, and is therefore very liable to confuse the issue if used in its place, I thought you'd be glad of the clarification. You're welcome.
    I originally used the word intentionally to emphasise that countries like Australia, Canada and the US would not 'take our side' but you're welcome to your pedantry. Assuming that I was not aware of the distinction between the different words says more about you than about me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots and will support whatever Brexit settlement we end up with, even if it's not brilliant.

    This is a misreading. The Conservative Party and its supporters were divided on the merits or otherwise of Brexit, and naturally most people haven't changed their mind on that (why should they?). But I would say that the overwhelming majority of those Conservatives who voted Remain accept the result and think that Theresa May should get on with implementing the decision. I don't think there is much, if any, appetite for a LibDemish attempt to undo or sabotage the democratic decision.

    Agreed. There are plenty of Tories who, while disliking the EU, voted on balance to Remain, but are still pretty relaxed about the Referendum outcome.

    What proportion of Tories would fight to the bitter end to stay in the EU? Probably not even 10%.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
    Yes, you are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear.
    No British patriot would pursue a course which makes its long-term dissolution inevitable. If you look in the mirror you'll see an English nationalist staring back at you.
    Support for Scotland leaving is lower than at the time of the 2014 referendum. I don't see NI leaving or RoI attempting any kind of reunification. Don't mix up your hopes and dreams of the destruction of this fair nation for reality.
    You need to raise your glance about the short term. Part of the British Isles, and former part of the UK, is already a successful member of the Eurozone. A failed policy of detachment from the EU imposed by an inflexible Westminster government will make it harder to justify maintaining the Union for long.
    Again, you are confusing what you hope will happen after Brexit with what might or might not happen. We all do it from time to time. You hope that Brexit will be bad and you hope that the EU will be successful and you hope that NI and Scotland will leave for the EU. Those are your hopes, not reality. In reality Brexit will be middling, some good aspects and some bad, the EU will continue to struggle on with its many crises and Scotland and NI will continue in the Union because there is just no alternative which allows them to trade freely with their 80-85% trading partners, England and Wales.

    Over time we will become more detached from the EU and our trade will look a lot more like global GDP shares with EU trade falling below 30% at which point the last ties will get cut. Hopefully.
    We all have different hopes and convictions which influence our views on what will happen, but the difference between us on this point is that you are starting from a false premise, whereas I am starting from a correct one - namely that the UK (or its component countries) are mainstream European nations.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots and will support whatever Brexit settlement we end up with, even if it's not brilliant.

    This is a misreading. The Conservative Party and its supporters were divided on the merits or otherwise of Brexit, and naturally most people haven't changed their mind on that (why should they?). But I would say that the overwhelming majority of those Conservatives who voted Remain accept the result and think that Theresa May should get on with implementing the decision. I don't think there is much, if any, appetite for a LibDemish attempt to undo or sabotage the democratic decision.

    Agreed. There are plenty of Tories who, while disliking the EU, voted on balance to Remain, but are still pretty relaxed about the Referendum outcome.

    What proportion of Tories would fight to the bitter end to stay in the EU? Probably not even 10%.
    Maybe 5%. I think David Herdson was a federalist of the Clark school before the referendum, he seems reconciled to leaving. As does Ken, btw. Of the members I know very few of the remain camp are still actively campaigning to remain, most just want the government to get on with it so we can concentrate on something other than Brexit for the London locals in 2018. If it boils down to Brexit next year I think we will do very badly indeed.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Jim O'Neill, Mark Carney and now Ivan Rogers - 'experts' all leaving early after tensions with No10. A pattern is developing.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
    Yes, you are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear.
    No British patriot would pursue a course which makes its long-term dissolution inevitable. If you look in the mirror you'll see an English nationalist staring back at you.
    Support for Scotland leaving is lower than at the time of the 2014 referendum. I don't see NI leaving or RoI attempting any kind of reunification. Don't mix up your hopes and dreams of the destruction of this fair nation for reality.
    You need to raise your glance about the short term. Part of the British Isles, and former part of the UK, is already a successful member of the Eurozone. A failed policy of detachment from the EU imposed by an inflexible Westminster government will make it harder to justify maintaining the Union for long.
    'Successful', apart from that gigantic boom and even bigger bust, the slashed pensions, wages and benefits, the ghost developments and bankruptcies and the international bailout they had to call on. Still, might be better this business cycle.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
    Yes, you are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear.
    No British patriot would pursue a course which makes its long-term dissolution inevitable. If you look in the mirror you'll see an English nationalist staring back at you.
    Support for Scotland leaving is lower than at the time of the 2014 referendum. I don't see NI leaving or RoI attempting any kind of reunification. Don't mix up your hopes and dreams of the destruction of this fair nation for reality.
    You need to raise your glance about the short term. Part of the British Isles, and former part of the UK, is already a successful member of the Eurozone. A failed policy of detachment from the EU imposed by an inflexible Westminster government will make it harder to justify maintaining the Union for long.
    Again, you are confusing what you hope will happen after Brexit with what might or might not happen. We all do it from time to time. You hope that Brexit will be bad and you hope that the EU will be successful and you hope that NI and Scotland will leave for the EU. Those are your hopes, not reality. In reality Brexit will be middling, some good aspects and some bad, the EU will continue to struggle on with its many crises and Scotland and NI will continue in the Union because there is just no alternative which allows them to trade freely with their 80-85% trading partners, England and Wales.

    Over time we will become more detached from the EU and our trade will look a lot more like global GDP shares with EU trade falling below 30% at which point the last ties will get cut. Hopefully.
    We all have different hopes and convictions which influence our views on what will happen, but the difference between us on this point is that you are starting from a false premise, whereas I am starting from a correct one - namely that the UK (or its component countries) are mainstream European nations.
    Not really. We aren't on the continent which is why we've never really been part of it. That's where you fail. You are part of the 10-15% of people in this country that believes in a "European identity". That's fine, but it's not a mainstream view, that you think it is or that even half of the 48% of remain voters think this is why you don't understand the British people, patriotism or why the Tory party will shrug it's collective shoulders and get on with life after Brexit.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    This is a misreading. The Conservative Party and its supporters were divided on the merits or otherwise of Brexit, and naturally most people haven't changed their mind on that (why should they?). But I would say that the overwhelming majority of those Conservatives who voted Remain accept the result and think that Theresa May should get on with implementing the decision. I don't think there is much, if any, appetite for a LibDemish attempt to undo or sabotage the democratic decision.

    There's a big distinction between those (of all parties) who think the decision was wrong but nonetheless accept that it has been made and must be delivered, and those still trying to overturn the decision. The LDs are attempting to appeal to the 48% but they're appealing to - at most - the 20%. Probably much less once Leave actually happens.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    @MaxPB, anyone who's been voting Conservative over the past 15 years knows that they've been voting for a party that really really dislikes the EU. Either they share that dislike, or they vote Conservative for other reasons. I don't see that changing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    This is a misreading. The Conservative Party and its supporters were divided on the merits or otherwise of Brexit, and naturally most people haven't changed their mind on that (why should they?). But I would say that the overwhelming majority of those Conservatives who voted Remain accept the result and think that Theresa May should get on with implementing the decision. I don't think there is much, if any, appetite for a LibDemish attempt to undo or sabotage the democratic decision.

    There's a big distinction between those (of all parties) who think the decision was wrong but nonetheless accept that it has been made and must be delivered, and those still trying to overturn the decision. The LDs are attempting to appeal to the 48% but they're appealing to - at most - the 20%. Probably much less once Leave actually happens.
    10-15% IMO. That's the rejoiner support level post leaving. If things go badly economically then up to 25%.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
    Yes, you are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear.
    No British patriot would pursue a course which makes its long-term dissolution inevitable. If you look in the mirror you'll see an English nationalist staring back at you.
    Support for Scotland leaving is lower than at the time of the 2014 referendum. I don't see NI leaving or RoI attempting any kind of reunification. Don't mix up your hopes and dreams of the destruction of this fair nation for reality.
    1 percentage point lower to be precise, the only poll out of 50 odd polls to do so.
    But knock yourself out about it, by all means.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    MaxPB said:

    Not really. We aren't on the continent which is why we've never really been part of it. That's where you fail. You are part of the 10-15% of people in this country that believes in a "European identity". That's fine, but it's not a mainstream view, that you think it is or that even half of the 48% of remain voters think this is why you don't understand the British people, patriotism or why the Tory party will shrug it's collective shoulders and get on with life after Brexit.

    Your biggest blind-spot is that the people who've given you the Brexit victory certainly do believe in a "European identity", except theirs is a purely ethnocentric definition.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    @MaxPB, anyone who's been voting Conservative over the past 15 years knows that they've been voting for a party that really really dislikes the EU. Either they share that dislike, or they vote Conservative for other reasons. I don't see that changing.

    I think that goes for LD Leavers in the West Country and elsewhere too. The party policy is unambiguously pro EU, but gets significant support from Leavers.

    It is almost as if European Policy is not important to some people, apart from rolling their eyes over straight banana stories in the Tabloids.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Jim O'Neill, Mark Carney and now Ivan Rogers - 'experts' all leaving early after tensions with No10. A pattern is developing.

    Not early enough in the case of Mark Carney.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
    Yes, you are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear.
    No British patriot would pursue a course which makes its long-term dissolution inevitable. If you look in the mirror you'll see an English nationalist staring back at you.
    Support for Scotland leaving is lower than at the time of the 2014 referendum. I don't see NI leaving or RoI attempting any kind of reunification. Don't mix up your hopes and dreams of the destruction of this fair nation for reality.
    1 percentage point lower to be precise, the only poll out of 50 odd polls to do so.
    But knock yourself out about it, by all means.
    It's still lower and that's against being assured by various, err, experts that support for independence would soar if Scotland were forcibly dragged out of the EU by England. So far that doesn't seem to be the case, I know we haven't left yet but still I'd expect it to be at least 50/50 by now.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    MaxPB said:

    We all have different hopes and convictions which influence our views on what will happen, but the difference between us on this point is that you are starting from a false premise, whereas I am starting from a correct one - namely that the UK (or its component countries) are mainstream European nations.

    Not really. We aren't on the continent which is why we've never really been part of it. That's where you fail. You are part of the 10-15% of people in this country that believes in a "European identity". That's fine, but it's not a mainstream view, that you think it is or that even half of the 48% of remain voters think this is why you don't understand the British people, patriotism or why the Tory party will shrug it's collective shoulders and get on with life after Brexit.
    It's not just the geography - the history (WWII was a very different experience for us than for the continent, albeit influenced by the geography), and the legal and political systems are very different too. The federalists have spent at least the last 25 years trying to develop a feeling of European culture and European identity but in the UK, they have failed.

    Hence the result.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Not really. We aren't on the continent which is why we've never really been part of it. That's where you fail. You are part of the 10-15% of people in this country that believes in a "European identity". That's fine, but it's not a mainstream view, that you think it is or that even half of the 48% of remain voters think this is why you don't understand the British people, patriotism or why the Tory party will shrug it's collective shoulders and get on with life after Brexit.

    Your biggest blind-spot is that the people who've given you the Brexit victory certainly do believe in a "European identity", except theirs is a purely ethnocentric definition.
    Time for receipts. Please show me any evidence that there is any support of sense of "European identity" within the 52% of leave voters. Your hopes are not the same as reality.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots and will support whatever Brexit settlement we end up with, even if it's not brilliant.

    Since when did patriotism mean 'my policy, right or wrong'?
    When hasn't it?
    The historical evidence is that when Tory policy on Europe fails, the voters give them an almighty kicking.
    I think the evidence is that voters kick out the Tories when the hard right headbangers take over and pursue their obsessions while allowing the rest of the country to fall apart.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,045
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Not really. We aren't on the continent which is why we've never really been part of it. That's where you fail. You are part of the 10-15% of people in this country that believes in a "European identity". That's fine, but it's not a mainstream view, that you think it is or that even half of the 48% of remain voters think this is why you don't understand the British people, patriotism or why the Tory party will shrug it's collective shoulders and get on with life after Brexit.

    Your biggest blind-spot is that the people who've given you the Brexit victory certainly do believe in a "European identity", except theirs is a purely ethnocentric definition.
    Time for receipts. Please show me any evidence that there is any support of sense of "European identity" within the 52% of leave voters. Your hopes are not the same as reality.
    I don't see why it matters whether people feel a sense of European identity (amongst their multiple other identities) or not. The EU isn't Europe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Indeed the fact Cameron even failed to get the migration break Blair could have taken in 2004 ultimately doomed Remain
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Jim O'Neill, Mark Carney and now Ivan Rogers - 'experts' all leaving early after tensions with No10. A pattern is developing.

    Didn't someone post recently that Number 10 was also alienating government departments and their ministers?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    edited January 2017
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Not really. We aren't on the continent which is why we've never really been part of it. That's where you fail. You are part of the 10-15% of people in this country that believes in a "European identity". That's fine, but it's not a mainstream view, that you think it is or that even half of the 48% of remain voters think this is why you don't understand the British people, patriotism or why the Tory party will shrug it's collective shoulders and get on with life after Brexit.

    Your biggest blind-spot is that the people who've given you the Brexit victory certainly do believe in a "European identity", except theirs is a purely ethnocentric definition.
    Time for receipts. Please show me any evidence that there is any support of sense of "European identity" within the 52% of leave voters. Your hopes are not the same as reality.
    Pick any article in a mainstream newspaper about Merkel and look at the comments from Brexit-supporters accusing her of 'destroying Europe' or some such. What do you think they mean by that? What does Douglas Murray (a Brexit supporter) mean when he says 'Europe is our home'?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWYDHdRXPWE
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    This is a misreading. The Conservative Party and its supporters were divided on the merits or otherwise of Brexit, and naturally most people haven't changed their mind on that (why should they?). But I would say that the overwhelming majority of those Conservatives who voted Remain accept the result and think that Theresa May should get on with implementing the decision. I don't think there is much, if any, appetite for a LibDemish attempt to undo or sabotage the democratic decision.

    I imagine quite a few voters have opinions on the EU like those of Ken Clarke, Michael Heseltine, Chris Patten or Anna Soubry!

    LibDem or Labour attempts to specifically reverse the referendum and hold another plebiscite to reverse the Leave vote bring those individuals into disrepute. Attempts to get the people, let alone parliament, a say on the terms of 'leaving' are perfectly valid.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Breathtaking reporting on segregation in Paris from France24 - more Le Pen voters ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uKobSevmbQ
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
    Yes, you are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear.
    No British patriot would pursue a course which makes its long-term dissolution inevitable. If you look in the mirror you'll see an English nationalist staring back at you.
    Support for Scotland leaving is lower than at the time of the 2014 referendum. I don't see NI leaving or RoI attempting any kind of reunification. Don't mix up your hopes and dreams of the destruction of this fair nation for reality.
    1 percentage point lower to be precise, the only poll out of 50 odd polls to do so.
    But knock yourself out about it, by all means.
    It's still lower
    The most recent poll showed Yes 45.5, No 54.5. I'd feel a bit of a tool stating that was a basis for saying support for Indy had risen since the referendum, but that's just me.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    MaxPB said:

    We all have different hopes and convictions which influence our views on what will happen, but the difference between us on this point is that you are starting from a false premise, whereas I am starting from a correct one - namely that the UK (or its component countries) are mainstream European nations.

    Not really. We aren't on the continent which is why we've never really been part of it. That's where you fail. You are part of the 10-15% of people in this country that believes in a "European identity". That's fine, but it's not a mainstream view, that you think it is or that even half of the 48% of remain voters think this is why you don't understand the British people, patriotism or why the Tory party will shrug it's collective shoulders and get on with life after Brexit.
    It's not just the geography - the history (WWII was a very different experience for us than for the continent, albeit influenced by the geography), and the legal and political systems are very different too. The federalists have spent at least the last 25 years trying to develop a feeling of European culture and European identity but in the UK, they have failed.

    Hence the result.
    ‘England in effect is insular, she is maritime, she is linked through her interactions, her markets and her supply lines to the most diverse and often the most distant countries; she pursues essentially industrial and commercial activities, and only slight agricultural ones. She has, in all her doings, very marked and very original habits and traditions.’ C de Gaulle, 1963. Spot on.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Breathtaking reporting on segregation in Paris from France24 - more Le Pen voters ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uKobSevmbQ

    I saw that earlier - really depressing stuff.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    LG Exactly. Switzerland, Iceland, Norway indeed most of Russia are in Europe but not in the EU
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    CD13 said:

    Mr Eagles,

    "Time for the vote to be severely restricted, to the educated, the high earners, and those who change their undies on a daily basis."

    Two out of three ain't bad. Do I get a vote?

    So apart from the undie changing what else you got? cash or brains? :wink:
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    With LePen announcing she isn't planning on France leaving the EU, I'm beginning to the collapse of the EU isn't imminent.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots

    True, which is why many of us opposed the xenophobia of Brexit and Farage's Little England
    Yes, you are a patriot, but not for this country. You serve a differnt master. That much is clear.
    No British patriot would pursue a course which makes its long-term dissolution inevitable. If you look in the mirror you'll see an English nationalist staring back at you.
    Support for Scotland leaving is lower than at the time of the 2014 referendum. I don't see NI leaving or RoI attempting any kind of reunification. Don't mix up your hopes and dreams of the destruction of this fair nation for reality.
    You need to raise your glance about the short term. Part of the British Isles, and former part of the UK, is already a successful member of the Eurozone. A failed policy of detachment from the EU imposed by an inflexible Westminster government will make it harder to justify maintaining the Union for long.
    'Successful', apart from that gigantic boom and even bigger bust, the slashed pensions, wages and benefits, the ghost developments and bankruptcies and the international bailout they had to call on. Still, might be better this business cycle.
    Indeed - I also discovered a couple of years ago whilst travelling on a cruise with two delightful couples from the republic that affordable healthcare is a nightmare - RoI has no NHS worthy of the name apparently. If they were starting from scratch only 'history' would operate against reunification.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Last time there was taxation without representation it did not work out too well for the British government
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    edited January 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    We all have different hopes and convictions which influence our views on what will happen, but the difference between us on this point is that you are starting from a false premise, whereas I am starting from a correct one - namely that the UK (or its component countries) are mainstream European nations.

    Not really. We aren't on the continent which is why we've never really been part of it. That's where you fail. You are part of the 10-15% of people in this country that believes in a "European identity". That's fine, but it's not a mainstream view, that you think it is or that even half of the 48% of remain voters think this is why you don't understand the British people, patriotism or why the Tory party will shrug it's collective shoulders and get on with life after Brexit.
    It's not just the geography - the history (WWII was a very different experience for us than for the continent, albeit influenced by the geography), and the legal and political systems are very different too. The federalists have spent at least the last 25 years trying to develop a feeling of European culture and European identity but in the UK, they have failed.

    Hence the result.
    ‘England in effect is insular, she is maritime, she is linked through her interactions, her markets and her supply lines to the most diverse and often the most distant countries; she pursues essentially industrial and commercial activities, and only slight agricultural ones. She has, in all her doings, very marked and very original habits and traditions.’ C de Gaulle, 1963. Spot on.
    Do you think De Gaulle's comments on the Nassau Agreement from the same press conference are also spot on?

    http://fresques.ina.fr/de-gaulle/fiche-media/Gaulle00085/conference-de-presse-du-14-janvier-1963-sur-l-entree-de-la-grande-bretagne-dans-la-cee.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Le Pen certainly still wants to leave the Eurozone as does Five Star and the Afd and Wilders and if the Euro collapses so does the EU in its present form
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Sean_F said:

    @MaxPB, anyone who's been voting Conservative over the past 15 years knows that they've been voting for a party that really really dislikes the EU. Either they share that dislike, or they vote Conservative for other reasons. I don't see that changing.

    Totally agree - I voted remain but could not see myself voting anything other than Conservative in the future.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    PlatoSaid said:

    Breathtaking reporting on segregation in Paris from France24 - more Le Pen voters ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uKobSevmbQ

    I saw that earlier - really depressing stuff.
    Liberté, égalité, fraternité
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots and will support whatever Brexit settlement we end up with, even if it's not brilliant.

    This is a misreading. The Conservative Party and its supporters were divided on the merits or otherwise of Brexit, and naturally most people haven't changed their mind on that (why should they?). But I would say that the overwhelming majority of those Conservatives who voted Remain accept the result and think that Theresa May should get on with implementing the decision. I don't think there is much, if any, appetite for a LibDemish attempt to undo or sabotage the democratic decision.

    Agreed. There are plenty of Tories who, while disliking the EU, voted on balance to Remain, but are still pretty relaxed about the Referendum outcome.

    What proportion of Tories would fight to the bitter end to stay in the EU? Probably not even 10%.
    Maybe 5%. I think David Herdson was a federalist of the Clark school before the referendum, he seems reconciled to leaving. As does Ken, btw. Of the members I know very few of the remain camp are still actively campaigning to remain, most just want the government to get on with it so we can concentrate on something other than Brexit for the London locals in 2018. If it boils down to Brexit next year I think we will do very badly indeed.
    I agree if you frame it as leaving vs remaining. But, the terms we leave on is the bigger issue here. There will be a far larger proportion of tories that are easily swayed by a LD argument of "we voted for Brexit, not hard Brexit". Regardless of the practicalities, the idea of soft Brexit still exists, and it will be easy for LDs to get remainer tory support for that, even among some Brexiteers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Jim O'Neill, Mark Carney and now Ivan Rogers - 'experts' all leaving early after tensions with No10. A pattern is developing.

    Yep. They've all been shown to be on the wrong side of history.

    Let's add Osborne to the list.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    Happy 2017 everyone, may it bring happiness, profit and adventure.

    No sign of the much promised unity for new year - didn't we all hear Theresa May's new year message? Surely that's all that's needed to heal the wounds?

    Two things that struck me over the past few days:

    1) I don't think anyone else noticed the comments by the chair of the Royal College of GPs moaning about 7 day working for doctors: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jan/01/seven-day-nhs-plan-puts-weekday-surgeries-at-risk-warns-top-gp

    In particular, saying that if a doctor works Sunday then they'll need a day off midweek. Am I the only person thinking this would be a great improvement? We have health issues in our family at the moment and I've had to have time off / work from home to get to several appointments in the past months. Also better for the economy surely? The doctors are going to have to improve their messages a lot if they want to make any impact on this.

    2) I wonder if Sir Ivan Rogers would make a good Lib Dem parliamentary candidate? He's worked with Nick Clegg for years and he strikes me as having plenty of credibility. Don't blame him for going, and even with all my own doubts about Brexit I can't see how we benefit from someone who clearly doesn't believe in it in such a leading role. It doesn't matter how the replacement voted - it's whether their heart is in the negotiations and they can follow Goverment policy.

    I suggest we all calm down a little on Brexit - simply because from here it all hinges on the renegotiations. If the Government can pull it out of the bag and come up with a deal that 70% can live with (assuming that would be 15% incandescent on both sides) then the world will move on. If however there becomes a clear majority against what's proposed then we are in the territory where we may need a terms referendum. We won't know which for a while, little we can do to influence at this stage, so I suggest we pour ourselves a good drink and discuss another topic for a while. If people like me could be persuaded to move on with the right deal, then we probably are worth waiting to see if the Government are as ready for this as their fans claim.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    @Ishmael_Z Another quote from that period from the archives for you - Dean Acheson on Britain:

    Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role. The attempt to play a separate power role — that is, a role apart from Europe, a role based on a ‘special relationship’ with the United States, a role based on being head of a ‘commonwealth’ which has no political structure, or unity, or strength — this role is about played out. Great Britain, attempting to be a broker between the United States and Russia, has seemed to conduct policy as weak as its military power.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/01/not-so-special-relationship/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Yep. They've all been shown to be on the wrong side of history.

    Let's add Osborne to the list.

    They have all been shown to be on the wrong side of May's praetorian guard, which is not the same thing
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    tpfkar said:



    I suggest we all calm down a little on Brexit - simply because from here it all hinges on the renegotiations. If the Government can pull it out of the bag and come up with a deal that 70% can live with (assuming that would be 15% incandescent on both sides) then the world will move on. If however there becomes a clear majority against what's proposed then we are in the territory where we may need a terms referendum. We won't know which for a while, little we can do to influence at this stage, so I suggest we pour ourselves a good drink and discuss another topic for a while. If people like me could be persuaded to move on with the right deal, then we probably are worth waiting to see if the Government are as ready for this as their fans claim.

    I admire your optimism. There are a number on here that would still cancel the result if they could and the myriad of delaying court cases emphasises the denial that a lot on the remain side are still experiencing.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Yep. They've all been shown to be on the wrong side of history.

    Let's add Osborne to the list.

    They have all been shown to be on the wrong side of May's praetorian guard, which is not the same thing
    Much as anyone on the wrong side of Osborne's Praetorians got nobbled

    Maybe the Tories should just try acting like a government occasionally and leave the personal backbiting to th Opposition
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    @MaxPB, anyone who's been voting Conservative over the past 15 years knows that they've been voting for a party that really really dislikes the EU. Either they share that dislike, or they vote Conservative for other reasons. I don't see that changing.

    Totally agree - I voted remain but could not see myself voting anything other than Conservative in the future.
    The idea that there are swathes of former Tory voters out there prepared to let Corbyn into 10 Downing Street just to keep alive some flaccid notion of the UK in the EU could only be propounded by someone who has never pounded the pavements and actually talked to such voters.

    Risible.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Am I "European" in the sense I am not Japanese - yes 100% of course.

    Does this mean I want to be part of a drift to a European State (which is where I see the direction of travel) - No. Others may want to, fair enough but I don't. At least June 23rd at long long last armed me with a pencil to actually clearly express that view for the first time.

    Is "Britain/England/the UK" a "normal" European country? Yes and no. Where is I suppose? ( Is Russia "European" yes and/no too I guess). Geography both binds us (we are not next to Bermuda) and makes us different (we are an island). Our history has led us to have connections to the wider world to a greater extent than any comparable Continental country. There is Latin America sure, but there is no equivalent German Australia, no Polish Canada, Singapore does not speak Mandarin and Danish, Finns don't follow the Indian Premier League live, Donald Trump's tweets are instantly accessible to us in full nuance (not necessarily a comforting thing that), in a way that just isn't the case for the average Bulgarian on the Sofia omnibus. A US courtroom with a jury looks very familiar to us in a way that it might not to a Continental with a different legal system. In the 20th Century the institutions of state of all European countries bar a handful collapsed totally at some point. Ours didn't, hence I feel much of our bemusement at the political nature of the "Project". For them it was a safety net, for us, an unnecessary encumbrance.

    I voted to give us the distance I feel there is deep down. Not a yawning gap, not a chasm, not an aggressive yah boo sucks, sod the lot of you over there, but a neighbourly distance. I like not quite being "them". Now things will get testy the way matters seem to be shaping up over the next couple of years, and I will err on the side of distance, if forced into a binary choice. I will not be cowed or browbeaten into being a footstool for Ever Closer Union if "rock hard or so soft it's pointless Brexit" is indeed forced upon us as the choice. From there though, hopefully, we could build bridges again amicably. But with a bit of distance please this time.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited January 2017
    Councillors oppose wealth creation in one of the most deprived areas of Britain.

    http://www.newhamrecorder.co.uk/news/newham_councillors_push_for_action_against_concrete_factories_1_4742697

    I'm sure Germany will be happy to take those jobs....

    ......with 1million mainly young men added to their population overnight they need them.....
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not worried. Most Tories are patriots and will support whatever Brexit settlement we end up with, even if it's not brilliant.

    This is a misreading. The Conservative Party and its supporters were divided on the merits or otherwise of Brexit, and naturally most people haven't changed their mind on that (why should they?). But I would say that the overwhelming majority of those Conservatives who voted Remain accept the result and think that Theresa May should get on with implementing the decision. I don't think there is much, if any, appetite for a LibDemish attempt to undo or sabotage the democratic decision.

    Agreed. There are plenty of Tories who, while disliking the EU, voted on balance to Remain, but are still pretty relaxed about the Referendum outcome.

    What proportion of Tories would fight to the bitter end to stay in the EU? Probably not even 10%.
    Maybe 5%. I think David Herdson was a federalist of the Clark school before the referendum, he seems reconciled to leaving. As does Ken, btw. Of the members I know very few of the remain camp are still actively campaigning to remain, most just want the government to get on with it so we can concentrate on something other than Brexit for the London locals in 2018. If it boils down to Brexit next year I think we will do very badly indeed.
    I agree if you frame it as leaving vs remaining. But, the terms we leave on is the bigger issue here. There will be a far larger proportion of tories that are easily swayed by a LD argument of "we voted for Brexit, not hard Brexit". Regardless of the practicalities, the idea of soft Brexit still exists, and it will be easy for LDs to get remainer tory support for that, even among some Brexiteers.
    But this is all so much ballyhoo.

    We have no idea if so-called "soft brexit" is even on the table until the negotiation starts.

    Once we pass Article 50 and sit at the table we might discover that they are not actually interested in more than very basic negotiation (FTA in Goods) and basically tell us to piss off.

    If the CJEU tells us that Article 50 is not revocable, which seems very likely, that will give us a choice of rock hard brexit, and rock hard brexit with a small figleaf.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,045
    edited January 2017

    @Ishmael_Z Another quote from that period from the archives for you - Dean Acheson on Britain:

    Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role. The attempt to play a separate power role — that is, a role apart from Europe, a role based on a ‘special relationship’ with the United States, a role based on being head of a ‘commonwealth’ which has no political structure, or unity, or strength — this role is about played out. Great Britain, attempting to be a broker between the United States and Russia, has seemed to conduct policy as weak as its military power.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/01/not-so-special-relationship/

    I don't know about Ishmael, but I agree totally. We need to be frank about being a comparitively small power. I am proud (with some reservations) of our country's past, but I've no desire to strut the world stage with nothing to back it up. It is Remainers who are visibly aroused by 'great power politics' (despite accusing everyone else of harking back to Empire). Personally I find the idea of clubbing together with other countries to boss smaller fry around to be profoundly illiberal. I want us to be able to feed ourselves and defend ourselves - that's enough.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    @Ishmael_Z Another quote from that period from the archives for you - Dean Acheson on Britain:

    Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role. The attempt to play a separate power role — that is, a role apart from Europe, a role based on a ‘special relationship’ with the United States, a role based on being head of a ‘commonwealth’ which has no political structure, or unity, or strength — this role is about played out. Great Britain, attempting to be a broker between the United States and Russia, has seemed to conduct policy as weak as its military power.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/01/not-so-special-relationship/

    ROFL

    said a bloke who's country capitulated to Germany in 1940 and still does

    De Gaulle talking about our decliniing world influence is like a turkey saying he wouldnt want to be a goose round Christmas time.

  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    @Ishmael_Z Another quote from that period from the archives for you - Dean Acheson on Britain:

    Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role. The attempt to play a separate power role — that is, a role apart from Europe, a role based on a ‘special relationship’ with the United States, a role based on being head of a ‘commonwealth’ which has no political structure, or unity, or strength — this role is about played out. Great Britain, attempting to be a broker between the United States and Russia, has seemed to conduct policy as weak as its military power.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/01/not-so-special-relationship/

    weak as its military power

    So that would be 6th in the world then ?

    http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    WG Yet the UK was alongside the US in both world wars and the Cold War while most of Europe was either Fascist or Communist as well as Korea and both Iraq Wars and Afghanistan. The only nation with a stronger record of support for the U.S. is Australia who also sent troops to Vietnam.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    @Ishmael_Z Another quote from that period from the archives for you - Dean Acheson on Britain:

    Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role. The attempt to play a separate power role — that is, a role apart from Europe, a role based on a ‘special relationship’ with the United States, a role based on being head of a ‘commonwealth’ which has no political structure, or unity, or strength — this role is about played out. Great Britain, attempting to be a broker between the United States and Russia, has seemed to conduct policy as weak as its military power.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/01/not-so-special-relationship/

    ROFL

    said a bloke who's country capitulated to Germany in 1940 and still does

    De Gaulle talking about our decliniing world influence is like a turkey saying he wouldnt want to be a goose round Christmas time.
    I'm not quoting De Gaulle there. That's the bloke who ran US foreign policy at the start of the Cold War.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    BBC Archive
    #OTD 1972: London prepared to bid farewell to traffic jams, forever. Computers will have that mess sorted out in a jiffy! https://t.co/LNIkke51It
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    WG Yet the UK was alongside the US in both world wars and the Cold War while most of Europe was either Fascist or Communist as well as Korea and both Iraq Wars and Afghanistan. The only nation with a stronger record of support for the U.S. is Australia who also sent troops to Vietnam.

    Which is precisely why Acheson's words were so wounding, and strengthened the case for our joining the EEC.
  • nunu said:

    Councillors oppose wealth creation in one of the most deprived areas of Britain.

    http://www.newhamrecorder.co.uk/news/newham_councillors_push_for_action_against_concrete_factories_1_4742697

    I'm sure Germany will be happy to take those jobs....

    ......with 1million mainly young men added to their population overnight they need them.....

    Concrete and asphalt plants need to be reasonably close to where the awork is. It layers a shed load of extra costs on a construction project otherwise.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    @Ishmael_Z Another quote from that period from the archives for you - Dean Acheson on Britain:

    Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role. The attempt to play a separate power role — that is, a role apart from Europe, a role based on a ‘special relationship’ with the United States, a role based on being head of a ‘commonwealth’ which has no political structure, or unity, or strength — this role is about played out. Great Britain, attempting to be a broker between the United States and Russia, has seemed to conduct policy as weak as its military power.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/01/not-so-special-relationship/

    ROFL

    said a bloke who's country capitulated to Germany in 1940 and still does

    De Gaulle talking about our decliniing world influence is like a turkey saying he wouldnt want to be a goose round Christmas time.
    I'm not quoting De Gaulle there. That's the bloke who ran US foreign policy at the start of the Cold War.
    even worse
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,045
    HYUFD said:

    WG Yet the UK was alongside the US in both world wars and the Cold War while most of Europe was either Fascist or Communist as well as Korea and both Iraq Wars and Afghanistan. The only nation with a stronger record of support for the U.S. is Australia who also sent troops to Vietnam.

    And much good it has done us.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    nunu said:

    Councillors oppose wealth creation in one of the most deprived areas of Britain.

    http://www.newhamrecorder.co.uk/news/newham_councillors_push_for_action_against_concrete_factories_1_4742697

    I'm sure Germany will be happy to take those jobs....

    ......with 1million mainly young men added to their population overnight they need them.....

    “It is inconceivable that these applications have even got this far, when they are fundamentally flawed, and completely contradict the Olympic dream Londoners were sold, involving the development of a vibrant and sustainable local community.”

    Where presumably they are all employed as vibrant baristas, serving sustainable lattes to each other all day.

    Tell them it's concrete - or nuclear waste storage. They'll soon get to love the look of concrete....
This discussion has been closed.