Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unite’s election could be a game changer for Corbyn

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unite’s election could be a game changer for Corbyn

If Len McCluskey had had his way, Jeremy Corbyn would never have become Labour leader. The general secretary of Unite opposed the Miliband reforms to Labour’s election system that gave the serial rebel a path to the job he’d never dreamt of doing.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Is McCluskey Tory scum yet?
  • Is Don Brind the one who was convinced that Corbyn was going to lose to Saving Labour?
  • Interesting
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Fourth. Like Labour in Scotland, if you count the SNP twice.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Afternoon all :)

    Are we approaching the Labour equivalent of October 2003 for the Conservatives when they stared into the electoral abyss and the very real possibility of finishing third in the next GE and stepped back thus beginning their long road back to power six and a half years later ?

    It may well take until 2025 but IF Corbyn can be removed before 2020, the chances of Labour returning to Government one day will increase substantially.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited January 2017
    Hmmm.

    image

    Of course, there was a [wicked Blairite] wolf in the end.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Is Don Brind the one who was convinced that Corbyn was going to lose to Saving Labour?

    Always a good idea to bet against Don Brind's anti-Corbyn fantasies.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    FPT
    JosiasJessop said:

    » show previous quotes
    I read a lot of old newspapers and websites containing historic information (*). I'd argue that, if anything, such abuse was far more common in the past. It's just that life at the lower end was so much harder and such abuse was either ignored or dealt with locally.

    (*) A great one is the Old Bailey website. My favourite quote is from a woman: "I walk the streets at night to maintain myself."

    https://www.oldbaileyonline.org/

    Thanks for That JJ, looks very interesting
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    "It buys into this question of what happens if we get to 2019 and opinion polls are still awful.The truth is everybody would examine that situation, including Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell …. These two are not egomaniacs, they are not desperate to cling on to power for power’s sake"

    By 2019, the new boundaries will (probably) be in place and the selections and deselections will have taken place.

    What I don't see is any possibility that Corbyn will voluntarily go, or that his Praetorian will encourage him to go, unless there is an assurance that the left will have a candidate in the ensuing election, and one with a reasonable chance of winning at that. With the current PLP, that can't be assured, so it might mean having to wait for rule changes too.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Fourth. Like Labour in Scotland, if you count the SNP twice.

    They must be near Lib Dumb/Green territory and still dropping
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    It's an intriguing possibility.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Are we approaching the Labour equivalent of October 2003 for the Conservatives when they stared into the electoral abyss and the very real possibility of finishing third in the next GE and stepped back thus beginning their long road back to power six and a half years later ?

    It may well take until 2025 but IF Corbyn can be removed before 2020, the chances of Labour returning to Government one day will increase substantially.

    The Tories had the advantage of a set of rules that was deliberately designed to be able to remove a poorly-performing leader. Labour's rules might well have been designed to make that challenge as hard as possible (and to increase the likelihood of such a challenge failing if attempted).
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Why did McCluskey trigger an early election?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    malcolmg said:

    Fourth. Like Labour in Scotland, if you count the SNP twice.

    They must be near Lib Dumb/Green territory and still dropping
    The last YouGov subsample for a Westminster election had them on 12, which was double the Lib Dems and four times the Greens (who were sixth, just behind UKIP).

    But of course a Westminster election is different from a Holyrood one or local ones, where the Greens ought to do better.

    FWIW, I think that's a low score - subsamples not being weighted - but all the same, it's probably not low by all that much. I'd be surprised if their leaked internal report, working on them having 15%, is far off the mark.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2017
    OK, let's go with the wishful thinking, and assume for the sake of argument that Corbyn decides to step down to a well-earned retirement, which he can spend reminiscing about romantic tours of East Germany and searching out even more interesting manhole covers.

    Then what? Any replacement leader acceptable to the current membership is going to be equally unelectable. Alternatively, if somehow the saner MPs and the more grounded union leaders somehow manage to lever a more credible figure into the leadership, denying the Corbynistas an acceptably loony-left replacement candidate, the party membership would be up in arms. Either way, it's hard to see the party uniting around an electable leader anytime soon; the in-fighting will continue, erupting occasionally into open civil war, but mostly bubbling under the surface in sullen discontent. Corbyn is a symptom, not the cause, of the problem.
  • In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited January 2017
    Essexit said:

    Why did McCluskey trigger an early election?

    He wanted to extend his term to 2020 so he would be in place for the GE

    It may well backfire on him. The result could be a big moment for labour as his challenger wants the end of free movement of labour
  • theakestheakes Posts: 839
    Don Brind, the preverbial optimist. My colleagues in Unison expect a low turnout and an easy win for McCluskey. Copeland should be a Labour hold, (forget the London media and Westmister gold fish bowl life is different 300 or so miles away), they will not fair badly in the May elections, because the main headline changes will be UKIP to Con and Con to Lib Dem. The opinion polls already overstate Conservative support and they will probably be in the low 30's by the Autumn with Labour close behind, maybe even marginally ahead, with the Lib Dems in the mid teens at least. Labour may lose seats in Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle etc in May but it will be to the Lib Dems and that is nothing new and will not adversely affect Labours ability to easily win those Cities at a General Election. Even in Scotland, the SNP cannot go any higher and can only fall back and in the Lowland industrial belt that can only mean a return to Labour. Corbyn is in the box seat and will take Labour into the General.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Evershed, one thing that irked me a bit was Chris Ship (and many others, not just him), ITV's deputy political editor yesterday saying the Civil Service wanted to know whether, for example, they should do preparatory work for staying in or leaving the customs union.

    On the face of it, that's a sensible desire. But it's a negotiation, not a wishlist. If May goes in there saying, for argument's sake, she wants to be in the customs union, and the EU reply that'll cost £20bn a year or taking a third of the migrants recently arrived in Germany, then she'll end up having to say no. Some aspirations can be put together but if anything is 'must have' then you're inviting the EU to slap a monumental price tag on it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    theakes said:

    Don Brind, the preverbial optimist. My colleagues in Unison expect a low turnout and an easy win for McCluskey. Copeland should be a Labour hold, (forget the London media and Westmister gold fish bowl life is different 300 or so miles away), they will not fair badly in the May elections, because the main headline changes will be UKIP to Con and Con to Lib Dem. The opinion polls already overstate Conservative support and they will probably be in the low 30's by the Autumn with Labour close behind, maybe even marginally ahead, with the Lib Dems in the mid teens at least. Labour may lose seats in Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle etc in May but it will be to the Lib Dems and that is nothing new and will not adversely affect Labours ability to easily win those Cities at a General Election. Even in Scotland, the SNP cannot go any higher and can only fall back and in the Lowland industrial belt that can only mean a return to Labour. Corbyn is in the box seat and will take Labour into the General.

    Oooohhhh... Can I have some of your drugs please?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Evening all.

    McCluskey, Abbott and Livingstone can whine all they like, unless Corbyn stands down voluntarily from the Labour leadership, he’s there till 2020, the last hurrah from the old commie so to speak...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    OK, let's go with the wishful thinking, and assume for the sake of argument that Corbyn decides to step down to a well-earned retirement, which he can spend reminiscing about romantic tours of East Germany and searching out even more interesting manhole covers.

    Then what? Any replacement leader acceptable to the current membership is going to be equally unelectable. Alternatively, if somehow the saner MPs and the more grounded union leaders somehow manage to lever a more credible figure into the leadership, denying the Corbynistas an acceptably loony-left replacement candidate, the party membership would be up in arms. Either way, it's hard to see the party uniting around an electable leader anytime soon; the in-fighting will continue, erupting occasionally into open civil war, but mostly bubbling under the surface in sullen discontent. Corbyn is a symptom, not the cause, of the problem.

    I...don't...think...John McDonnell....is...as...unelectable....as...Jezza.

    There, I said it.

    OK there's the IRA stuff but if Gerry and Martin are now reformed (in the eyes of the public and the political structure, ok to a certain extent but there they are) then why couldn't John likewise say that that was then and this is now?

    It relies upon him renouncing his previous sympathies and I haven't followed closely enough to remember what his current positions or statements on it all are, but if he was flexible enough to do so, I think he could make a decent fist of LOTO.
  • In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    TOPPING said:

    OK, let's go with the wishful thinking, and assume for the sake of argument that Corbyn decides to step down to a well-earned retirement, which he can spend reminiscing about romantic tours of East Germany and searching out even more interesting manhole covers.

    Then what? Any replacement leader acceptable to the current membership is going to be equally unelectable. Alternatively, if somehow the saner MPs and the more grounded union leaders somehow manage to lever a more credible figure into the leadership, denying the Corbynistas an acceptably loony-left replacement candidate, the party membership would be up in arms. Either way, it's hard to see the party uniting around an electable leader anytime soon; the in-fighting will continue, erupting occasionally into open civil war, but mostly bubbling under the surface in sullen discontent. Corbyn is a symptom, not the cause, of the problem.

    I...don't...think...John McDonnell....is...as...unelectable....as...Jezza.

    There, I said it.

    OK there's the IRA stuff but if Gerry and Martin are now reformed (in the eyes of the public and the political structure, ok to a certain extent but there they are) then why couldn't John likewise say that that was then and this is now?

    It relies upon him renouncing his previous sympathies and I haven't followed closely enough to remember what his current positions or statements on it all are, but if he was flexible enough to do so, I think he could make a decent fist of LOTO.
    He's a more overtly terrorism - supporting version of Corbyn, albeit in a slightly better suit. Mrs May won't be getting too worried.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited January 2017
    Mr. Topping, in terms of style in front of the camera, McDonnell is clearly superior to Jezbollah. He's more articulate, calmer, seems more reasonable.

    But there are still a shitload of dodgy quotes and suspect positions from the past.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. NorthWales, that is interesting. She's avoiding the everlasting vowels of Peston too.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
    As I have noted before, Nick Robinson in the end refused interviews with Tezza when she was HS because, he said, he walked out of the interview knowing nothing more than he had done when he walked in.

    And that was when she was HS. She would be super-exposed as PM if she were to adopt the same tactics and hence I'm not surprised that she has pulled out of an incisive interview (no idea how effective Sophy Ridge is), if that is what happened.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    OK, let's go with the wishful thinking, and assume for the sake of argument that Corbyn decides to step down to a well-earned retirement, which he can spend reminiscing about romantic tours of East Germany and searching out even more interesting manhole covers.

    Then what? Any replacement leader acceptable to the current membership is going to be equally unelectable. Alternatively, if somehow the saner MPs and the more grounded union leaders somehow manage to lever a more credible figure into the leadership, denying the Corbynistas an acceptably loony-left replacement candidate, the party membership would be up in arms. Either way, it's hard to see the party uniting around an electable leader anytime soon; the in-fighting will continue, erupting occasionally into open civil war, but mostly bubbling under the surface in sullen discontent. Corbyn is a symptom, not the cause, of the problem.

    I...don't...think...John McDonnell....is...as...unelectable....as...Jezza.

    There, I said it.

    OK there's the IRA stuff but if Gerry and Martin are now reformed (in the eyes of the public and the political structure, ok to a certain extent but there they are) then why couldn't John likewise say that that was then and this is now?

    It relies upon him renouncing his previous sympathies and I haven't followed closely enough to remember what his current positions or statements on it all are, but if he was flexible enough to do so, I think he could make a decent fist of LOTO.
    He's a more overtly terrorism - supporting version of Corbyn, albeit in a slightly better suit. Mrs May won't be getting too worried.
    and @Morris_Dancer yes of course - plenty of skeletons. But Gerry and Martin are now embedded in the political establishment. If they can do that, and they were the perps, then surely we can have a come to Jesus moment from McDonnell.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Are we approaching the Labour equivalent of October 2003 for the Conservatives when they stared into the electoral abyss and the very real possibility of finishing third in the next GE and stepped back thus beginning their long road back to power six and a half years later ?

    It may well take until 2025 but IF Corbyn can be removed before 2020, the chances of Labour returning to Government one day will increase substantially.

    The Tories had the advantage of a set of rules that was deliberately designed to be able to remove a poorly-performing leader. Labour's rules might well have been designed to make that challenge as hard as possible (and to increase the likelihood of such a challenge failing if attempted).
    As the PLP learned last summer, to their cost. Corbyn will resign at a time of his choosing, and assuming he has his health, that won't be before a 2020 election.

    The Tories are much more ruthless when the leader fails to deliver.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited January 2017
    The big Current account party is ending, Lloyds heading down to 2.0% AER and TSB down to 3% on £1500 not £2000 :(

    Nationwide and First Direct still have decent enough regular savers, and that is about it..
  • OK, let's go with the wishful thinking, and assume for the sake of argument that Corbyn decides to step down to a well-earned retirement, which he can spend reminiscing about romantic tours of East Germany and searching out even more interesting manhole covers.

    Then what? Any replacement leader acceptable to the current membership is going to be equally unelectable. Alternatively, if somehow the saner MPs and the more grounded union leaders somehow manage to lever a more credible figure into the leadership, denying the Corbynistas an acceptably loony-left replacement candidate, the party membership would be up in arms. Either way, it's hard to see the party uniting around an electable leader anytime soon; the in-fighting will continue, erupting occasionally into open civil war, but mostly bubbling under the surface in sullen discontent. Corbyn is a symptom, not the cause, of the problem.

    Depends what you mean by electable.

    Capable of winning a general election? No chance at all.

    Capable of playing a part in preventing an overall Tory majority? Yes.

    It's the latter Labour has to aim for now and given the unknown we are heading into with Brexit that looks a reasonable hope with a different leader.

    Labour has moved left, there is no doubt about that. I may not like it, but I accept it. I suspect that most other moderates feel exactly the same. But Corbyn and his leadership team are uniquely appalling. Not only are they uninterested in engaging with non-believers, not only are they uninterested in winning elections, but they also come with the most appalling baggage. Other left-wingers do not come with that. Clive Lewis, for example, grew up in a council house, served in Afghanistan and has demonstrated an ability to go beyond the standard lefty comfort zone. He has major weaknesses, of course, but the act of getting rid of Corbyn alone would change the way a lot of people view Labour.

    I actually think that the party would unite around another leader from the left, as long as that leader showed him or herself to be willing to accept that Labour is a broad church, did not have a long record of supporting terrorist organisations and did not wince in the face of the Union Jack. Such people do exist. If the left is serious about power, as opposed to purity, it will see to it that one of them is leading Labour by the time the next general election takes place.

  • TOPPING said:

    and @Morris_Dancer yes of course - plenty of skeletons. But Gerry and Martin are now embedded in the political establishment. If they can do that, and they were the perps, then surely we can have a come to Jesus moment from McDonnell.

    The difference is that Gerry and Martin are not dependent on getting votes from English voters.
  • On another note the latest presidential opinion poll in France is interesting, with both Fillon and Le Pen falling back and various centre and left candidates moving forward. I wonder if this is the Trump/Putin effect in action. In Europe I am not sure that politicians will benefit electorally form being seen to be close to either or both.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Topping, with fears of Islamic terrorism ever higher, something (hard to say how much) of the far right rising, and Northern Irish terrorism still not completely gone, the public will not welcome those who might be seen as soft on terrorism.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her</blockquote. I agree .What can be the reason May is not going on the Mart show ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    On another note the latest presidential opinion poll in France is interesting, with both Fillon and Le Pen falling back and various centre and left candidates moving forward. I wonder if this is the Trump/Putin effect in action. In Europe I am not sure that politicians will benefit electorally form being seen to be close to either or both.

    Could simply be that the left primary is happening and they're in the media?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Marr show
  • Pulpstar said:

    The big Current account party is ending, Lloyds heading down to 2.0% AER and TSB down to 3% on £1500 not £2000 :(

    Nationwide and First Direct still have decent enough regular savers, and that is about it..

    Tesco bank's current account offer 3% on balances up to £3,000, and you can have two accounts.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Pulpstar said:

    The big Current account party is ending, Lloyds heading down to 2.0% AER and TSB down to 3% on £1500 not £2000 :(

    Nationwide and First Direct still have decent enough regular savers, and that is about it..

    One is much better advised to put reasonable amounts of medium term money into Premium Bonds.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, there have got to be some sort of conditions on that. It's nearly twice inflation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    OK, let's go with the wishful thinking, and assume for the sake of argument that Corbyn decides to step down to a well-earned retirement, which he can spend reminiscing about romantic tours of East Germany and searching out even more interesting manhole covers.

    Then what? Any replacement leader acceptable to the current membership is going to be equally unelectable. Alternatively, if somehow the saner MPs and the more grounded union leaders somehow manage to lever a more credible figure into the leadership, denying the Corbynistas an acceptably loony-left replacement candidate, the party membership would be up in arms. Either way, it's hard to see the party uniting around an electable leader anytime soon; the in-fighting will continue, erupting occasionally into open civil war, but mostly bubbling under the surface in sullen discontent. Corbyn is a symptom, not the cause, of the problem.

    I...don't...think...John McDonnell....is...as...unelectable....as...Jezza.

    There, I said it.

    OK there's the IRA stuff but if Gerry and Martin are now reformed (in the eyes of the public and the political structure, ok to a certain extent but there they are) then why couldn't John likewise say that that was then and this is now?

    It relies upon him renouncing his previous sympathies and I haven't followed closely enough to remember what his current positions or statements on it all are, but if he was flexible enough to do so, I think he could make a decent fist of LOTO.
    He's a more overtly terrorism - supporting version of Corbyn, albeit in a slightly better suit. Mrs May won't be getting too worried.
    and @Morris_Dancer yes of course - plenty of skeletons. But Gerry and Martin are now embedded in the political establishment. If they can do that, and they were the perps, then surely we can have a come to Jesus moment from McDonnell.
    This is the McDonnell who invited the terrorists to Parliament the week after they tried to assassinate the Cabinet in Brighton - how well do we think he will go down in middle England?

    Places like Warrington, for example.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited January 2017
    TOPPING said:

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
    As I have noted before, Nick Robinson in the end refused interviews with Tezza when she was HS because, he said, he walked out of the interview knowing nothing more than he had done when he walked in.

    And that was when she was HS. She would be super-exposed as PM if she were to adopt the same tactics and hence I'm not surprised that she has pulled out of an incisive interview (no idea how effective Sophy Ridge is), if that is what happened.
    Theresa May would have no problem with Andrew Marr. She decided to give the prestige of the first interview to Sky
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    OK, let's go with the wishful thinking, and assume for the sake of argument that Corbyn decides to step down to a well-earned retirement, which he can spend reminiscing about romantic tours of East Germany and searching out even more interesting manhole covers.

    Then what? Any replacement leader acceptable to the current membership is going to be equally unelectable. Alternatively, if somehow the saner MPs and the more grounded union leaders somehow manage to lever a more credible figure into the leadership, denying the Corbynistas an acceptably loony-left replacement candidate, the party membership would be up in arms. Either way, it's hard to see the party uniting around an electable leader anytime soon; the in-fighting will continue, erupting occasionally into open civil war, but mostly bubbling under the surface in sullen discontent. Corbyn is a symptom, not the cause, of the problem.

    I...don't...think...John McDonnell....is...as...unelectable....as...Jezza.

    There, I said it.

    OK there's the IRA stuff but if Gerry and Martin are now reformed (in the eyes of the public and the political structure, ok to a certain extent but there they are) then why couldn't John likewise say that that was then and this is now?

    It relies upon him renouncing his previous sympathies and I haven't followed closely enough to remember what his current positions or statements on it all are, but if he was flexible enough to do so, I think he could make a decent fist of LOTO.
    He's a more overtly terrorism - supporting version of Corbyn, albeit in a slightly better suit. Mrs May won't be getting too worried.
    and @Morris_Dancer yes of course - plenty of skeletons. But Gerry and Martin are now embedded in the political establishment. If they can do that, and they were the perps, then surely we can have a come to Jesus moment from McDonnell.
    Adams and McGuinness are rehabilitated and tolerated within N Ireland because they represent a significant strand of opinion there and because they have moderated their views; they are not running to lead the British government (amusing though that concept might be), and would not do very well if they tried.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    TOPPING said:

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
    As I have noted before, Nick Robinson in the end refused interviews with Tezza when she was HS because, he said, he walked out of the interview knowing nothing more than he had done when he walked in.

    And that was when she was HS. She would be super-exposed as PM if she were to adopt the same tactics and hence I'm not surprised that she has pulled out of an incisive interview (no idea how effective Sophy Ridge is), if that is what happened.
    She has already been on Marr.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Fpt: Questions for Sandy(and others):

    Do you have a degree from OU? What are the materials like can you really learn from long distance? What if you have a complicated question/s?
  • Mr. Eagles, there have got to be some sort of conditions on that. It's nearly twice inflation.

    Nope

    http://www.tescobank.com/current-accounts/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    and @Morris_Dancer yes of course - plenty of skeletons. But Gerry and Martin are now embedded in the political establishment. If they can do that, and they were the perps, then surely we can have a come to Jesus moment from McDonnell.

    The difference is that Gerry and Martin are not dependent on getting votes from English voters.
    Yes it's true but everyone likes a repentent sinner.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    TOPPING said:

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
    As I have noted before, Nick Robinson in the end refused interviews with Tezza when she was HS because, he said, he walked out of the interview knowing nothing more than he had done when he walked in.

    And that was when she was HS. She would be super-exposed as PM if she were to adopt the same tactics and hence I'm not surprised that she has pulled out of an incisive interview (no idea how effective Sophy Ridge is), if that is what happened.
    Sophy is quite lovely, but she's about 30 and hardly known for her hard-hitting political interviews.
    A 1-on-1 with the PM is probably the biggest day of her career.

    Andrew Marr or Andrew Neil, she certainly isn't.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    and @Morris_Dancer yes of course - plenty of skeletons. But Gerry and Martin are now embedded in the political establishment. If they can do that, and they were the perps, then surely we can have a come to Jesus moment from McDonnell.

    The difference is that Gerry and Martin are not dependent on getting votes from English voters.
    Yes it's true but everyone likes a repentent sinner.
    Corbyn and McDonnell are not repentant. They don't recognise the sin.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    TOPPING said:

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
    As I have noted before, Nick Robinson in the end refused interviews with Tezza when she was HS because, he said, he walked out of the interview knowing nothing more than he had done when he walked in.

    And that was when she was HS. She would be super-exposed as PM if she were to adopt the same tactics and hence I'm not surprised that she has pulled out of an incisive interview (no idea how effective Sophy Ridge is), if that is what happened.
    Well May certainly plays a straight bat .I listened to her for two hours at the liaison committee and learnt nothing about how we were leaving the EU.Hope the new Sky presenter for Sunday mornings has better success.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, pretty good deal then. Good rate, though the sum permitted isn't super-high.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    For sure John McDonnell would be even worse. Corbyn has that nice old man / genuine bloke persona that he's cultivated. McDonnell looks and sounds like what he is, a bruiser who thinks violence is ok to achieve political aims.
  • John McDonnell would make an excellent Labour leader were Corbyn to go.

    This post has nothing to do with me holding a betting slip on John McDonnell as next Labour leader at 40/1
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    OK, let's go with the wishful thinking, and assume for the sake of argument that Corbyn decides to step down to a well-earned retirement, which he can spend reminiscing about romantic tours of East Germany and searching out even more interesting manhole covers.

    Then what? Any replacement leader acceptable to the current membership is going to be equally unelectable. Alternatively, if somehow the saner MPs and the more grounded union leaders somehow manage to lever a more credible figure into the leadership, denying the Corbynistas an acceptably loony-left replacement candidate, the party membership would be up in arms. Either way, it's hard to see the party uniting around an electable leader anytime soon; the in-fighting will continue, erupting occasionally into open civil war, but mostly bubbling under the surface in sullen discontent. Corbyn is a symptom, not the cause, of the problem.

    I...don't...think...John McDonnell....is...as...unelectable....as...Jezza.

    There, I said it.

    OK there's the IRA stuff but if Gerry and Martin are now reformed (in the eyes of the public and the political structure, ok to a certain extent but there they are) then why couldn't John likewise say that that was then and this is now?

    It relies upon him renouncing his previous sympathies and I haven't followed closely enough to remember what his current positions or statements on it all are, but if he was flexible enough to do so, I think he could make a decent fist of LOTO.
    He's a more overtly terrorism - supporting version of Corbyn, albeit in a slightly better suit. Mrs May won't be getting too worried.
    and @Morris_Dancer yes of course - plenty of skeletons. But Gerry and Martin are now embedded in the political establishment. If they can do that, and they were the perps, then surely we can have a come to Jesus moment from McDonnell.
    This is the McDonnell who invited the terrorists to Parliament the week after they tried to assassinate the Cabinet in Brighton - how well do we think he will go down in middle England?

    Places like Warrington, for example.
    That was Corbyn. McDonnell did not become an MP until 1997.
  • Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
    As I have noted before, Nick Robinson in the end refused interviews with Tezza when she was HS because, he said, he walked out of the interview knowing nothing more than he had done when he walked in.

    And that was when she was HS. She would be super-exposed as PM if she were to adopt the same tactics and hence I'm not surprised that she has pulled out of an incisive interview (no idea how effective Sophy Ridge is), if that is what happened.
    Sophy is quite lovely, but she's about 30 and hardly known for her hard-hitting political interviews.
    A 1-on-1 with the PM is probably the biggest day of her career.

    Andrew Marr or Andrew Neil, she certainly isn't.
    Sophy is about 33 and this is her first big break as the host of the 10.00 am Sunday Sky politics show.

    She is reasonably good and it will be interesting to see how she manages this huge opportunity
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    TOPPING said:

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
    As I have noted before, Nick Robinson in the end refused interviews with Tezza when she was HS because, he said, he walked out of the interview knowing nothing more than he had done when he walked in.

    And that was when she was HS. She would be super-exposed as PM if she were to adopt the same tactics and hence I'm not surprised that she has pulled out of an incisive interview (no idea how effective Sophy Ridge is), if that is what happened.
    Theresa May would have no problem with Andrew Marr. She decided to give the prestige of the first interview to Sky
    True but Andrew Neil would be a problem for May
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited January 2017
    OK I get it we have a consensus that McDonnell ain't never going to happen. But ponder events of the past 24 months, including Jezza, look me in the eye, and tell me that it couldn't ever transpire. If anyone had said two years ago that Jezza would be Lab leader there would have been the same hue & cry, all super-logically explained.

    Now OK, I said electable. Perhaps that was a little extreme, but McDonnell definitely falls into the seasoned pale, male, stale politician category that has been so successful on the whole these past few decades.
  • If not already linked to from The Economist:

    Theresa Maybe, Britain’s indecisive premier

    http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21713837-after-six-months-what-new-prime-minister-stands-still-unclearperhaps-even
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    TOPPING said:

    OK I get it we have a consensus that McDonnell ain't never going to happen. But ponder events of the past 24 months, including Jezza, look me in the eye, and tell me that it couldn't ever transpire. If anyone had said two years ago that Jezza would be Lab leader there would have been the same hue & cry, all super-logically explained.

    Now OK, I said electable. Perhaps that was a little extreme, but McDonnell definitely falls into the seasoned pale, male, stale politician category that has been so successful on the whole these past few decades.

    I agree he looks the part smart in dress and in mind.He handles himself well in interviews under pressure.Livingstone won the London mayoriity twice I bet many said that would never happen me included.
  • Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
    As I have noted before, Nick Robinson in the end refused interviews with Tezza when she was HS because, he said, he walked out of the interview knowing nothing more than he had done when he walked in.

    And that was when she was HS. She would be super-exposed as PM if she were to adopt the same tactics and hence I'm not surprised that she has pulled out of an incisive interview (no idea how effective Sophy Ridge is), if that is what happened.
    Sophy is quite lovely, but she's about 30 and hardly known for her hard-hitting political interviews.
    A 1-on-1 with the PM is probably the biggest day of her career.

    Andrew Marr or Andrew Neil, she certainly isn't.
    Apart from Andrew Neil I have always thought Peter Allen the best political interviewer but mostly on radio.

    Peter Allen's approach was like boiling a frog.

    If you drop a frog into boiling water it jumps straight out. But if you put the frog into warm water and gradually raise the temperature the frog gets boiled.

    Try it at home. :)

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    theakes said:

    Don Brind, the preverbial optimist. My colleagues in Unison expect a low turnout and an easy win for McCluskey. Copeland should be a Labour hold, (forget the London media and Westmister gold fish bowl life is different 300 or so miles away), they will not fair badly in the May elections, because the main headline changes will be UKIP to Con and Con to Lib Dem. The opinion polls already overstate Conservative support and they will probably be in the low 30's by the Autumn with Labour close behind, maybe even marginally ahead, with the Lib Dems in the mid teens at least. Labour may lose seats in Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle etc in May but it will be to the Lib Dems and that is nothing new and will not adversely affect Labours ability to easily win those Cities at a General Election. Even in Scotland, the SNP cannot go any higher and can only fall back and in the Lowland industrial belt that can only mean a return to Labour. Corbyn is in the box seat and will take Labour into the General.

    Lol - try looking up the word 'complacency in the dictionary.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    JohnO said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    OK, let's go with the wishful thinking, and assume for the sake of argument that Corbyn decides to step down to a well-earned retirement, which he can spend reminiscing about romantic tours of East Germany and searching out even more interesting manhole covers.

    Then what? Any replacement leader acceptable to the current membership is going to be equally unelectable. Alternatively, if somehow the saner MPs and the more grounded union leaders somehow manage to lever a more credible figure into the leadership, denying the Corbynistas an acceptably loony-left replacement candidate, the party membership would be up in arms. Either way, it's hard to see the party uniting around an electable leader anytime soon; the in-fighting will continue, erupting occasionally into open civil war, but mostly bubbling under the surface in sullen discontent. Corbyn is a symptom, not the cause, of the problem.

    I...don't...think...John McDonnell....is...as...unelectable....as...Jezza.

    There, I said it.

    OK there's the IRA stuff but if Gerry and Martin are now reformed (in the eyes of the public and the political structure, ok to a certain extent but there they are) then why couldn't John likewise say that that was then and this is now?

    It relies upon him renouncing his previous sympathies and I haven't followed closely enough to remember what his current positions or statements on it all are, but if he was flexible enough to do so, I think he could make a decent fist of LOTO.
    He's a more overtly terrorism - supporting version of Corbyn, albeit in a slightly better suit. Mrs May won't be getting too worried.
    and @Morris_Dancer yes of course - plenty of skeletons. But Gerry and Martin are now embedded in the political establishment. If they can do that, and they were the perps, then surely we can have a come to Jesus moment from McDonnell.
    This is the McDonnell who invited the terrorists to Parliament the week after they tried to assassinate the Cabinet in Brighton - how well do we think he will go down in middle England?

    Places like Warrington, for example.
    That was Corbyn. McDonnell did not become an MP until 1997.
    Hmm... You are right that he didn't become an MP until 1997, so why do I think he was 'friendly' with the IRA in the 1980s? He certainly made an arse of himself later on, clearly voicing support for the IRA and various middle eastern terrorists.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    If not already linked to from The Economist:

    Theresa Maybe, Britain’s indecisive premier

    http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21713837-after-six-months-what-new-prime-minister-stands-still-unclearperhaps-even

    ROFL

    Blairite house mag gets the hump

    4 chem
  • Yorkcity said:

    Marr show

    Life on Marr's?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Based on the evidence so far Mrs May is an example of the Peter Principle. She got the job because her rivals were all so useless.

    Survival as Home Secretary and micro-managing everything in sight are all very well but are not sufficient to make you an effective PM.

    I would like to hope that the last six months have been spent doing the hard thinking needed to work out what Brexit should mean and how to get there, as well as thinking hard about how to implement the rest of what was in the speech she gave when she became PM.

    I would like to hope so. I see no evidence of it. So far.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    felix said:

    theakes said:

    Don Brind, the preverbial optimist. My colleagues in Unison expect a low turnout and an easy win for McCluskey. Copeland should be a Labour hold, (forget the London media and Westmister gold fish bowl life is different 300 or so miles away), they will not fair badly in the May elections, because the main headline changes will be UKIP to Con and Con to Lib Dem. The opinion polls already overstate Conservative support and they will probably be in the low 30's by the Autumn with Labour close behind, maybe even marginally ahead, with the Lib Dems in the mid teens at least. Labour may lose seats in Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle etc in May but it will be to the Lib Dems and that is nothing new and will not adversely affect Labours ability to easily win those Cities at a General Election. Even in Scotland, the SNP cannot go any higher and can only fall back and in the Lowland industrial belt that can only mean a return to Labour. Corbyn is in the box seat and will take Labour into the General.

    Lol - try looking up the word 'complacency in the dictionary.
    you should perhaps explain the word "dictionary"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
    As I have noted before, Nick Robinson in the end refused interviews with Tezza when she was HS because, he said, he walked out of the interview knowing nothing more than he had done when he walked in.

    And that was when she was HS. She would be super-exposed as PM if she were to adopt the same tactics and hence I'm not surprised that she has pulled out of an incisive interview (no idea how effective Sophy Ridge is), if that is what happened.
    Sophy is quite lovely, but she's about 30 and hardly known for her hard-hitting political interviews.
    A 1-on-1 with the PM is probably the biggest day of her career.

    Andrew Marr or Andrew Neil, she certainly isn't.
    Apart from Andrew Neil I have always thought Peter Allen the best political interviewer but mostly on radio.

    Peter Allen's approach was like boiling a frog.

    If you drop a frog into boiling water it jumps straight out. But if you put the frog into warm water and gradually raise the temperature the frog gets boiled.

    Try it at home. :)

    Maybe there's a good reason that the PM chooses a young presenter on her big break over someone like Marr or Neil for their first interview of the year? ;)

    I'd most likely do the same if I were the PM, Andrew Neil in particular struggles to get the most senior cabinet members on, because they know he'll give them a hard time!

    IMO the best long form interviewer of politicians is Stephen Sackur on BBC World's 'Hard Talk' programme, very incisive and not afraid to stick with a line of questioning in the face of an evasive answer.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    nunu said:

    Fpt: Questions for Sandy(and others):

    Do you have a degree from OU? What are the materials like can you really learn from long distance? What if you have a complicated question/s?

    Both my undergraduate and masters degrees are from the OU. You have tutor support, and in most courses the students form self-help groups. OU learning materials are excellent, in my experience. It's by far the cheapest way of earning a degree, if that's your goal.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    Mr. Eagles, there have got to be some sort of conditions on that. It's nearly twice inflation.

    Nope

    http://www.tescobank.com/current-accounts/
    3 percent interest up to 3k , its the standad £100 incentive to open a bank account.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Cyclefree said:

    Based on the evidence so far Mrs May is an example of the Peter Principle. She got the job because her rivals were all so useless.

    Survival as Home Secretary and micro-managing everything in sight are all very well but are not sufficient to make you an effective PM.

    I would like to hope that the last six months have been spent doing the hard thinking needed to work out what Brexit should mean and how to get there, as well as thinking hard about how to implement the rest of what was in the speech she gave when she became PM.

    I would like to hope so. I see no evidence of it. So far.

    I cant help but raise a wry smile at those complaining about May's alleged micro management

    given the alternative was Osborne a confirmed nano dabbler maybe they need to stop and ask if they had a lucky escape instead

    personally Id say it;s blokes complaining about a female manager. Women like to go through things in detail more than men - which is why we think you lot nag.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited January 2017
    nielh said:

    Mr. Eagles, there have got to be some sort of conditions on that. It's nearly twice inflation.

    Nope

    http://www.tescobank.com/current-accounts/
    3 percent interest up to 3k , its the standad £100 incentive to open a bank account.
    Betfair gives way better returns than that! :tongue:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    LOL! Andy Haldane, Cheif BoE economist, describes post-Brexit vote forecast of doom as "Our Michael Fish moment"
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/05/dont-panic-credit-card-boom-says-bank-england-chief-economist/
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    Cyclefree said:

    Based on the evidence so far Mrs May is an example of the Peter Principle. She got the job because her rivals were all so useless.

    Survival as Home Secretary and micro-managing everything in sight are all very well but are not sufficient to make you an effective PM.

    I would like to hope that the last six months have been spent doing the hard thinking needed to work out what Brexit should mean and how to get there, as well as thinking hard about how to implement the rest of what was in the speech she gave when she became PM.

    I would like to hope so. I see no evidence of it. So far.

    I cant help but raise a wry smile at those complaining about May's alleged micro management

    given the alternative was Osborne a confirmed nano dabbler maybe they need to stop and ask if they had a lucky escape instead

    personally Id say it;s blokes complaining about a female manager. Women like to go through things in detail more than men - which is why we think you lot nag.
    The alternative turned out to be Leadsom, so be thankful for nano mercies.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Cyclefree said:

    Based on the evidence so far Mrs May is an example of the Peter Principle. She got the job because her rivals were all so useless.

    Survival as Home Secretary and micro-managing everything in sight are all very well but are not sufficient to make you an effective PM.

    I would like to hope that the last six months have been spent doing the hard thinking needed to work out what Brexit should mean and how to get there, as well as thinking hard about how to implement the rest of what was in the speech she gave when she became PM.

    I would like to hope so. I see no evidence of it. So far.

    I cant help but raise a wry smile at those complaining about May's alleged micro management

    given the alternative was Osborne a confirmed nano dabbler maybe they need to stop and ask if they had a lucky escape instead

    personally Id say it;s blokes complaining about a female manager. Women like to go through things in detail more than men - which is why we think you lot nag.
    The alternative turned out to be Leadsom, so be thankful for nano mercies.
    tsk

    what is it with lefties and women ?
  • Yorkcity said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
    As I have noted before, Nick Robinson in the end refused interviews with Tezza when she was HS because, he said, he walked out of the interview knowing nothing more than he had done when he walked in.

    And that was when she was HS. She would be super-exposed as PM if she were to adopt the same tactics and hence I'm not surprised that she has pulled out of an incisive interview (no idea how effective Sophy Ridge is), if that is what happened.
    Theresa May would have no problem with Andrew Marr. She decided to give the prestige of the first interview to Sky
    True but Andrew Neil would be a problem for May
    Andrew Neil is a problem for all politicians - probably the best in the businesd
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Sandpit said:

    LOL! Andy Haldane, Cheif BoE economist, describes post-Brexit vote forecast of doom as "Our Michael Fish moment"
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/05/dont-panic-credit-card-boom-says-bank-england-chief-economist/

    This was a good article by Jeremy Warner making the same point 2 days ago: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/04/economists-have-had-another-terrible-year-time-complete-re-think/

    Meantime, the FTSE 100 has just had the longest run of closing highs since 1997. I know the FTSE 100 doesn't meant too much for our domestic economy but the fact is the world seems (with the possible exception of China) to be heading upwards again with no indications at all that Brexit has caused any kind of a stir.

    UK growth this year will start with a 2. I am increasingly confident of that. How much is past the 2 depends on keeping stupid mistakes to a minimum.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    TOPPING said:

    OK, let's go with the wishful thinking, and assume for the sake of argument that Corbyn decides to step down to a well-earned retirement, which he can spend reminiscing about romantic tours of East Germany and searching out even more interesting manhole covers.

    Then what? Any replacement leader acceptable to the current membership is going to be equally unelectable. Alternatively, if somehow the saner MPs and the more grounded union leaders somehow manage to lever a more credible figure into the leadership, denying the Corbynistas an acceptably loony-left replacement candidate, the party membership would be up in arms. Either way, it's hard to see the party uniting around an electable leader anytime soon; the in-fighting will continue, erupting occasionally into open civil war, but mostly bubbling under the surface in sullen discontent. Corbyn is a symptom, not the cause, of the problem.

    I...don't...think...John McDonnell....is...as...unelectable....as...Jezza.

    There, I said it.

    OK there's the IRA stuff but if Gerry and Martin are now reformed (in the eyes of the public and the political structure, ok to a certain extent but there they are) then why couldn't John likewise say that that was then and this is now?

    It relies upon him renouncing his previous sympathies and I haven't followed closely enough to remember what his current positions or statements on it all are, but if he was flexible enough to do so, I think he could make a decent fist of LOTO.
    I think you are right.

    I don't think McDonnell is as electable with the party membership though. I think a lot of members respond well to Corbyns personal qualities - whereas McDonnell has a harder more ruthless edge tha will alienate many.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    LOL! Andy Haldane, Cheif BoE economist, describes post-Brexit vote forecast of doom as "Our Michael Fish moment"
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/05/dont-panic-credit-card-boom-says-bank-england-chief-economist/

    Ssh! It is pb orthodoxy that the Bank of England could have saved the banking sector in the global financial crisis if it weren't for those pesky kids at the FSA. Now it turns out the BoE didn't see it coming either.

    To be serious, just as interesting (and related to markets not behaving as the experts predict) is this report on flash crashes and growing scepticism they are all due to scapegoats trading from their bedrooms in far-off lands.
    http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-finance/what-is-causing-flash-crashes
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited January 2017

    Cyclefree said:

    I cant help but raise a wry smile at those complaining about May's alleged micro management

    given the alternative was Osborne a confirmed nano dabbler maybe they need to stop and ask if they had a lucky escape instead

    personally Id say it;s blokes complaining about a female manager. Women like to go through things in detail more than men - which is why we think you lot nag.
    No - nagging and micro management are not the same thing. Nor is going through things in detail the same as micro management.

    The art of successful leadership - or perhaps one of its arts - is building an effective team you can trust, then trusting them to get on with it and knowing when (and how) to intervene. And that applies whether you're running a team of 6 or being a PM.

    Of course you need to know the detail - or, at least, you need to know which detail you need to be concerned about and which you can delegate to others. But you cannot reserve everything to yourself. If you have built a good trustworthy team you can then concentrate on those things that only a leader can and should do and let others get on with their jobs.

    May's three big problems are:-

    1. The team she has built - particularly in the key departments - are not to be trusted and don't appear particularly competent either;
    2. She hasn't really set any sort of strategy - as far as we can tell. ("We will make a success of Brexit" is not a strategy. At best, it is an aspiration. Others might call it something more caustic.)
    3. She does not appear willing to involve others in her thinking. Of all the decisions which this government has to take Brexit is the one where all sorts of people and groups should be involved and be responsible for what happens. In not wanting to reveal her negotiating hand (as if the EU/European governments aren't perfectly able to work out for themselves what the UK might want and where its strengths and vulnerabilities lie) she is making (ironically enough) the same mistake as Cameron who negotiated his deal in private and was then left looking like a chump when it was revealed to the world.

    Britain made a number of serious mistakes in its approach to the EU ever since the start. Regardless of your views on Brexit, it does look as if we are repeating the same mistakes - and making a few new ones for good measure - in our approach to our non-EU future.

    (I might even do a thread on them though I think many of us feel we've had enough Referendum/Brexit headers to last several lifetimes.)

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    @Cyclefree

    On 2 - isn't that being worked on behind closed doors? No running commentary and all that.

    On 3 - Doesn't her inclusion of two of the three Brexiteers in the drafting of her upcoming speech (most likely because they are deeply involved with Brexit anyway) provide a point of evidence against that?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited January 2017
    From an EU sponsored research centre

    "Project Fear Brexit predictions were 'flawed and partisan', new study says

    Predictions by the Treasury ahead of the Brexit vote have been brought into question by a study which says that leaving the European Union will halve net migration, give British workers a pay rise and help to solve the housing crisis.

    The report from the Centre for Business Research at the University of Cambridge examined the possible future scenarios following the referendum decision to leave the EU"

    http://bit.ly/2hWRuC8
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    I really don't think who is leader of Unite makes much difference to Corbyn's prospects as Labour leader, Labour members have just reelected him comfortably and could not care less
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Good to see Kamal Ahmed on the Six O'Clock News telling us why the PMI figures are bad for Brexit Britain.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 86, I... how?

    Ahmed was the clown who asked Carney, pre-referendum, if he could guarantee there wouldn't be a recession if we voted to Leave.

    If voting to depart the EU meant we never suffered another recession, that would've been a good selling point.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:



    May's three big problems are:-

    1. The team she has built - particularly in the key departments - are not to be trusted and don't appear particularly competent either;
    2. She hasn't really set any sort of strategy - as far as we can tell. ("We will make a success of Brexit" is not a strategy. At best, it is an aspiration. Others might call it something more caustic.)
    3. She does not appear willing to involve others in her thinking. Of all the decisions which this government has to take Brexit is the one where all sorts of people and groups should be involved and be responsible for what happens. In not wanting to reveal her negotiating hand (as if the EU/European governments aren't perfectly able to work out for themselves what the UK might want and where its strengths and vulnerabilities lie) she is making (ironically enough) the same mistake as Cameron who negotiated his deal in private and was then left looking like a chump when it was revealed to the world.

    Britain made a number of serious mistakes in its approach to the EU ever since the start. Regardless of your views on Brexit, it does look as if we are repeating the same mistakes - and making a few new ones for good measure - in our approach to our non-EU future.

    (I might even do a thread on them though I think many of us feel we've had enough Referendum/Brexit headers to last several lifetimes.)

    I am not a natural May fan. I think she survived in the Home Office by avoiding a lot of responsibility. I also think that the Home Office is less of a death pool that it used to be when it was responsible for jails and justice as well. I think she is excessively cautious and distrusting of others. I am pining for Dave to be honest.

    But I still think your assessment is harsh. Not only had Dave failed to have any preliminary work done on Brexit, he had also failed to consider whether the UK Civil Service was even capable of delivering it. The new Brexit department has had to hire in a whole range of experts to advise and inform on a wide range of areas which the UK has not dealt with for decades while they were EU competences.

    It would have taken an FDR to make sense of this from day 1 or even day 185. Keeping your mouth shut until you know what you should be saying may frustrate the 24 hour news cycle but it is not necessarily the worst thing to do.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    isam said:

    From an EU sponsored research centre

    "Project Fear Brexit predictions were 'flawed and partisan', new study says

    Predictions by the Treasury ahead of the Brexit vote have been brought into question by a study which says that leaving the European Union will halve net migration, give British workers a pay rise and help to solve the housing crisis.

    The report from the Centre for Business Research at the University of Cambridge examined the possible future scenarios following the referendum decision to leave the EU"

    http://bit.ly/2hWRuC8

    As if by magic...

    "Average earnings are forecast to rise by more than 2 per cent a year, partly because of lower levels of migration after Brexit.

    The report said: "Our equations for earnings suggest that earnings will rise by more than 2 per cent as employment rates reach a peak in 2017 and especially as migration reduces from 2019."
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    tlg86 said:

    Good to see Kamal Ahmed on the Six O'Clock News telling us why the PMI figures are bad for Brexit Britain.

    It really does feel like we are living 2010-2015 again, but with the word Brexit substituted in for the word Austerity.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    nielh said:

    Mr. Eagles, there have got to be some sort of conditions on that. It's nearly twice inflation.

    Nope

    http://www.tescobank.com/current-accounts/
    3 percent interest up to 3k , its the standad £100 incentive to open a bank account.
    Actually less than that. Offer looks good until you check it out. Many will be fooled though.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    RobD said:

    @Cyclefree

    On 2 - isn't that being worked on behind closed doors? No running commentary and all that.

    On 3 - Doesn't her inclusion of two of the three Brexiteers in the drafting of her upcoming speech (most likely because they are deeply involved with Brexit anyway) provide a point of evidence against that?

    On 2 you may be right. But I think there is a difference between giving a running commentary on negotiations and setting out a broad strategy.

    On 3, again possibly. But far far more people and groups need to be involved. If Brexit is going to be acceptable to most (or to enough) and to work then groups outside government need to be involved in the debate and be coming up with ideas and suggestions etc - not just for how Brexit can be implemented but also for how particular sectors adjust to a post-EU future. It can't just be favoured companies (Nissan, for instance) and a few chosen Ministers.

    The rest of the country is making plans because, whether rightly or wrongly, they see a vacuum where the government's policy should be. There is something wrong IMO with a government which spends more time slapping down Ministers who suggest something than in actually communicating with the voters about what Brexit might mean. There is an irony in this given that one reason why some will have voted to leave is precisely a feeling that governments never listened to them.

    More broadly, the EU project was seen by enough people as something which was done by those at the top to everyone else. It would be disastrous for a successful Brexit if it was seen in the same light, as something which was done by a few to the many.

    In any case, I rather think that there will not be much negotiation. We will get the Brexit we are given by the remaining EU states
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Hurrah ! The "Quote" is back.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Incidentally, a chap on Twitter (who might also be on PB) mentioned to me that there's a programme on BBC4 at 9pm tonight about our armed history. Sounds like lots of lovely weapons and violence (bit modern, though, I think guns might be involved).
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:



    May's three big problems are:-

    1. The team she has built - particularly in the key departments - are not to be trusted and don't appear particularly competent either;
    2. She hasn't really set any sort of strategy - as far as we can tell. ("We will make a success of Brexit" is not a strategy. At best, it is an aspiration. Others might call it something more caustic.)
    3. She does not appear willing to involve others in her thinking. Of all the decisions which this government has to take Brexit is the one where all sorts of people and groups should be involved and be responsible for what happens. In not wanting to reveal her negotiating hand (as if the EU/European governments aren't perfectly able to work out for themselves what the UK might want and where its strengths and vulnerabilities lie) she is making (ironically enough) the same mistake as Cameron who negotiated his deal in private and was then left looking like a chump when it was revealed to the world.

    Britain made a number of serious mistakes in its approach to the EU ever since the start. Regardless of your views on Brexit, it does look as if we are repeating the same mistakes - and making a few new ones for good measure - in our approach to our non-EU future.

    (I might even do a thread on them though I think many of us feel we've had enough Referendum/Brexit headers to last several lifetimes.)

    I am not a natural May fan. I think she survived in the Home Office by avoiding a lot of responsibility. I also think that the Home Office is less of a death pool that it used to be when it was responsible for jails and justice as well. I think she is excessively cautious and distrusting of others. I am pining for Dave to be honest.

    But I still think your assessment is harsh. Not only had Dave failed to have any preliminary work done on Brexit, he had also failed to consider whether the UK Civil Service was even capable of delivering it. The new Brexit department has had to hire in a whole range of experts to advise and inform on a wide range of areas which the UK has not dealt with for decades while they were EU competences.

    It would have taken an FDR to make sense of this from day 1 or even day 185. Keeping your mouth shut until you know what you should be saying may frustrate the 24 hour news cycle but it is not necessarily the worst thing to do.
    May is just trying to make the best of an impossible situation. If she says anything she is toast.
  • tlg86 said:

    Good to see Kamal Ahmed on the Six O'Clock News telling us why the PMI figures are bad for Brexit Britain.

    Maybe that is why Theresa May is boycotting Andrew Marr on Sunday and giving an exclusive interview to Sophy Ridge on Sky at 10.00am on Sunday
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I cant help but raise a wry smile at those complainingk you lot nag.
    No - nagging and micro management are not the same thing. Nor is going through things in detail the same as micro management.

    The art of successful leadership - or perhaps one of its arts - is building an effective team you can trust, then trusting them to get on with it and knowing when (and how) to intervene. And that applies whether you're running a team of 6 or being a PM.

    Of course you need to know the detail - or, at least, you need to know which detail you need to be concerned about and which you can delegate to others. But you cannot reserve everything to yourself. If you have built a good trustworthy team you can then concentrate on those things that only a leader can and should do and let others get on with their jobs.

    May's three big problems are:-

    1. The team she has built - particularly in the key departments - are not to be trusted and don't appear particularly competent either;
    2. She hasn't really set any sort of strategy - as far as we can tell. ("We will make a success of Brexit" is not a strategy. At best, it is an aspiration. Others might call it something more caustic.)
    3. She does not appear willing to involve others in her thinking. Of all the decisions which this government has to take Brexit is the one where all sorts of people and groups should be involved and be responsible for what happens. In not wanting to reveal her negotiating hand (as if the EU/European governments aren't perfectly able to work out for themselves what the UK might want and where its strengths and vulnerabilities lie) she is making (ironically enough) the same mistake as Cameron who negotiated his deal in private and was then left looking like a chump when it was revealed to the world.

    Britain made a number of serious mistakes in its approach to the EU ever since the start. Regardless of your views on Brexit, it does look as if we are repeating the same mistakes - and making a few new ones for good measure - in our approach to our non-EU future.

    (I might even do a thread on them though I think many of us feel we've had enough Referendum/Brexit headers to last several lifetimes.)

    hmmmm

    1. you could say the same about Cameron but righties didnt complain at the time
    2. she hasnt declared a strategy as yet, but that's not the same as saying she hasnt got one. She's given a date for announcements judge things then
    3. maybe, but as yet it's too early to say what she has and hasnt done, people are only seeing things from the outside and jumping to conclusions

    atm there are just too many people demanding to know things, its too early she should tell them all to fk off or just ignore them, as she appears to be doing
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:



    May's three big problems are:-

    1. The team she has built - particularly in the key departments - are not to be trusted and don't appear particularly competent either;
    2. She hasn't really set any sort of strategy - as far as we can tell. ("We will make a success of Brexit" is not a strategy. At best, it is an aspiration. Others might call it something more caustic.)
    3. She does not appear willing to involve others in her thinking. Of all the decisions which this government has to take Brexit is the one where all sorts of people and groups should be involved and be responsible for what happens. In not wanting to reveal her negotiating hand (as if the EU/European governments aren't perfectly able to work out for themselves what the UK might want and where its strengths and vulnerabilities lie) she is making (ironically enough) the same mistake as Cameron who negotiated his deal in private and was then left looking like a chump when it was revealed to the world.

    Britain made a number of serious mistakes in its approach to the EU ever since the start. Regardless of your views on Brexit, it does look as if we are repeating the same mistakes - and making a few new ones for good measure - in our approach to our non-EU future.

    (I might even do a thread on them though I think many of us feel we've had enough Referendum/Brexit headers to last several lifetimes.)

    I am not a natural May fan. I think she survived in the Home Office by avoiding a lot of responsibility. I also think that the Home Office is less of a death pool that it used to be when it was responsible for jails and justice as well. I think she is excessively cautious and distrusting of others. I am pining for Dave to be honest.

    But I still think your assessment is harsh. Not only had Dave failed to have any preliminary work done on Brexit, he had also failed to consider whether the UK Civil Service was even capable of delivering it. The new Brexit department has had to hire in a whole range of experts to advise and inform on a wide range of areas which the UK has not dealt with for decades while they were EU competences.

    It would have taken an FDR to make sense of this from day 1 or even day 185. Keeping your mouth shut until you know what you should be saying may frustrate the 24 hour news cycle but it is not necessarily the worst thing to do.
    I may be being harsh. That's why I said that I hope there is a lot of thinking being done and that we will be pleasantly surprised. I have my doubts about whether there is anything of substance behind May's sensible looking persona. She strikes me as a natural Deputy or COO rather than an FDR or even a Maggie. But I'm prepared be persuaded otherwise and I hope I'm wrong.

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    How highbrow of you David. I go with "Everyone has a plan until they are punched in the face" from the great modern intellectual, Mike Tyson.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Is Don Brind the one who was convinced that Corbyn was going to lose to Saving Labour?

    The bigger issue for Labour is why they think under the £3 membership rules that it won't be Corbyn MkII that comes in next.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited January 2017

    On another note the latest presidential opinion poll in France is interesting, with both Fillon and Le Pen falling back and various centre and left candidates moving forward. I wonder if this is the Trump/Putin effect in action. In Europe I am not sure that politicians will benefit electorally form being seen to be close to either or both.

    With Valls as PS candidate (he leads the PS primary polls) the latest poll shows little change, Fillon and Le Pen in front on over 20% everyone else behind. If a more left-wing candidate wins the PS nomination Macron gets closer to Fillon and Le Pen but we knew that already
    http://www.lesechos.fr/elections/emmanuel-macron/0211662416395-presidentielle-2017-macron-se-rapproche-dune-qualification-au-second-tour-2054824.php
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the last thread there was parise for John Major. He is a wise man.

    As PM he always deferred making decisions until they needed to be made and said so.

    Thereasa May is of a similar style. No need to make decisions about the Brexit route until you have an idea what the other 27 EU members will accept.

    "No plan survives contact with the enemy"
    On Strategy" (1871), "Moltke on the Art of War"

    Interesting that Theresa May has rejected appearing on Andrew Marr for her first interview in the New Year, as tradition has it, and has agreed to appear on Sophy Ridge of Sky's first programme at 10.00am on Sunday

    Also I believe that TM will come out forcefully with her plan with taking back border control as a red line by the end of the month and challenge the Country to back her
    As I have noted before, Nick Robinson in the end refused interviews with Tezza when she was HS because, he said, he walked out of the interview knowing nothing more than he had done when he walked in.

    And that was when she was HS. She would be super-exposed as PM if she were to adopt the same tactics and hence I'm not surprised that she has pulled out of an incisive interview (no idea how effective Sophy Ridge is), if that is what happened.
    Theresa May would have no problem with Andrew Marr. She decided to give the prestige of the first interview to Sky
    True but Andrew Neil would be a problem for May
    Andrew Neil is a problem for all politicians - probably the best in the businesd
    Agreed shame every PM LOTO and Chancellor always avoid him and go to the easier Marr .
This discussion has been closed.