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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How long will May’s honeymoon period can go on?

If the five years of this parliament were compressed into the space of a football match, we’d have only just reached the half-hour mark. It feels like longer, though that might be because there’s been a lot packed in: six leadership elections across the four main parties, a change of PM, an historic referendum, and Labour’s biggest crisis since at least the early 1980s.

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peter_from_putney

First .... again!

foxinsoxuk

Second, like the Tories in Copeland.

peter_from_putney

" That May election must be looking attractive at No 10."

Maybe ..... but only if she has good cause for calling it. The great British won't thank her, in fact will punish her, for simply calling a GE which is simply seen as being opportunistic, all the more so bearing in mind that this would be barely 10 months after they were previously called to the polling booths to cast their votes in the EU referendum. Potentially dangerous territory and based on the old boundaries to boot.

peter_from_putney

I very much agree with you Fox, where I've been gobbling up the near 2/1 odds until recently available against a Labour hold, now shortened to a more realistic 11/8 which still remains value in my book, but PBers should however do their own research!

MarqueeMark

Unless there is a constitutional crisis that prevents Article 50 being served - Supreme Court appeal lost, House of Lords playing silly buggers - then I don't see May going to the country until the Brexit negotiations have been concluded. She stood out on the wing, screaming for the hospital pass - now she has to try and run down that wing.

The Prime Minister will need to show the voters she has concluded the job of Brexit. And that - preferably - it has resulted in a fair and sensible settlement for an independent UK (or alternatively, able to point to the EU as a bunch of impossible shits and we are SO MUCH better off out, even on hard Brexit and WTO). Either outcome should get her home with a handy majority when that election is called.

RobD

peter_from_putney said:

" That May election must be looking attractive at No 10."

Maybe ..... but only if she has good cause for calling it. The great British won't thank her, in fact will punish her, for simply calling a GE which is simply seen as being opportunistic, all the more so bearing in mind that this would be barely 10 months after they were previously called to the polling booths to cast their votes in the EU referendum. Potentially dangerous territory and based on the old boundaries to boot.

Yeah, I think there will only be an early election if Parliament forces her hand.

CarlottaVance

peter_from_putney said:

" That May election must be looking attractive at No 10."

Maybe ..... but only if she has good cause for calling it. The great British won't thank her, in fact will punish her, for simply calling a GE which is simply seen as being opportunistic, all the more so bearing in mind that this would be barely 10 months after they were previously called to the polling booths to cast their votes in the EU referendum. Potentially dangerous territory and based on the old boundaries to boot.

I agree. The Great British Public has been asked two big questions in short order, given their answers and now look to the political class to sort it out - "tuning out" may be one factor in May's ratings robustness.

AlsoIndigo

Her honeymoon will continue all the time the alternative is Corbyn. Some voters might start to get a little disenchanted, but one glance on the other side of the dispatch box will soon put some steel in their backbone.

logical_song

MarqueeMark said:

Unless there is a constitutional crisis that prevents Article 50 being served - Supreme Court appeal lost, House of Lords playing silly buggers - then I don't see May going to the country until the Brexit negotiations have been concluded. She stood out on the wing, screaming for the hospital pass - now she has to try and run down that wing.

The Prime Minister will need to show the voters she has concluded the job of Brexit. And that - preferably - it has resulted in a fair and sensible settlement for an independent UK (or alternatively, able to point to the EU as a bunch of impossible shits and we are SO MUCH better off out, even on hard Brexit and WTO). Either outcome should get her home with a handy majority when that election is called.

But " constitutional crisis that prevents Article 50 being served - Supreme Court appeal lost, House of Lords playing silly buggers" is quite likely.
The appeal is more likely than not to be lost and the House of Lords needs to do its job, whether it's called "being silly buggers" or not.

foxinsoxuk

AlsoIndigo said:

Her honeymoon will continue all the time the alternative is Corbyn. Some voters might start to get a little disenchanted, but one glance on the other side of the dispatch box will soon put some steel in their backbone.

If you really want to shake up the establishment, then PM Corbyn is the way to do it...

IanB2

I guess she also has the advantage of being able to hold a May election at any time of year?

peter_from_putney

logical_song said:

MarqueeMark said:

Unless there is a constitutional crisis that prevents Article 50 being served - Supreme Court appeal lost, House of Lords playing silly buggers - then I don't see May going to the country until the Brexit negotiations have been concluded. She stood out on the wing, screaming for the hospital pass - now she has to try and run down that wing.

The Prime Minister will need to show the voters she has concluded the job of Brexit. And that - preferably - it has resulted in a fair and sensible settlement for an independent UK (or alternatively, able to point to the EU as a bunch of impossible shits and we are SO MUCH better off out, even on hard Brexit and WTO). Either outcome should get her home with a handy majority when that election is called.

But " constitutional crisis that prevents Article 50 being served - Supreme Court appeal lost, House of Lords playing silly buggers" is quite likely.
The appeal is more likely than not to be lost and the House of Lords needs to do its job, whether it's called "being silly buggers" or not.

Indeed, by all accounts, the largely pre-determined result by the Supreme Court is likely to be 7-4 against the Government. I think I'm beginning to understand why the Americans take so very seriously nominations to their Supreme Court.

peter_from_putney

IanB2 said:

I guess she also has the advantage of being able to hold a May election at any time of year?

You may be right, then again you may not be.

asjohnstone

Who does David consider to be the "four main parties" ? As the article is about parliament, I'd presume he means, Tories, Labour, SNP and presumably the Lib Dems.

AlastairMeeks

peter_from_putney said:

logical_song said:

MarqueeMark said:

Unless there is a constitutional crisis that prevents Article 50 being served - Supreme Court appeal lost, House of Lords playing silly buggers - then I don't see May going to the country until the Brexit negotiations have been concluded. She stood out on the wing, screaming for the hospital pass - now she has to try and run down that wing.

The Prime Minister will need to show the voters she has concluded the job of Brexit. And that - preferably - it has resulted in a fair and sensible settlement for an independent UK (or alternatively, able to point to the EU as a bunch of impossible shits and we are SO MUCH better off out, even on hard Brexit and WTO). Either outcome should get her home with a handy majority when that election is called.

But " constitutional crisis that prevents Article 50 being served - Supreme Court appeal lost, House of Lords playing silly buggers" is quite likely.
The appeal is more likely than not to be lost and the House of Lords needs to do its job, whether it's called "being silly buggers" or not.

Indeed, by all accounts, the largely pre-determined result by the Supreme Court is likely to be 7-4 against the Government. I think I'm beginning to understand why the Americans take so very seriously nominations to their Supreme Court.

I wouldn't believe all you read in the newspapers and I especially wouldn't believe journalists' speculation on the internal workings of judges' panels. If they're right, it's by accident.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

May's ratings are hard to assess because her principal opponent is as popular as a leper at an orgy and there's one issue which will determine whether she's a success or failure.

OT: any word on a possible New Year reprieve for Mr. K, who was banned for reasons yet unknown around Christmas?

Sandpit

Morning. On topic : Quite a while yet, while her her opposition is Mr "Hamas" Corbyn and Mr "Ignore the Plebs" Farron.

AlastairMeeks

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

rural_voter

CarlottaVance said:

peter_from_putney said:

" That May election must be looking attractive at No 10."

Maybe ..... but only if she has good cause for calling it. The great British won't thank her, in fact will punish her, for simply calling a GE which is simply seen as being opportunistic, all the more so bearing in mind that this would be barely 10 months after they were previously called to the polling booths to cast their votes in the EU referendum. Potentially dangerous territory and based on the old boundaries to boot.

I agree. The Great British Public has been asked two big questions in short order, given their answers and now look to the political class to sort it out - "tuning out" may be one factor in May's ratings robustness.

Thanks to the excellent FTPA, a snap GE would probably receive more bad publicity than they did when an PM could call one at the drop of a hat. The only amendment I'd make to the FPTA is to change it to four years.

BTW, having just had my continental brexit, my contribution to the debate is to suggest PB allows the word 'Brexit' in posts for only one or two hours per day, perhaps 10 pm to midnight. Then those who wish can rant away and I can watch TV or sleep.

Discussing the SC or EU parliament at other times seems fine but they are some huge political issues to face with or without the EU, like

a social care system collapsing to the extent that the Red Cross intervenes
millions of people in s**t rented accommodation
harassment/sanctioning of benefits claimants
a disastrous current a/c deficit
etc

foxinsoxuk

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

Methinks uncivil war within the Tory party is about to break out again. Brexit has shifted the tectonic plates and is going to reform all parties.

NickPalmer

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

I think that's right. Media, politicians and voters mostly think politics is about Brexit, on which nothing much seems to be happening, so they're not giving their voting much thought but for the moment are giving May the benefit of the doubt. There may also be a wider pattern that quiet centre-right politicians are seen as safe pairs of hands in troubled times - Merkel, maybe Fillon, also benefit.

Meanwhile, calling SeanT, who drew our attention to reported problems like this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/07/german-police-quash-breitbart-story-of-mob-setting-fire-to-dortmund-church

Sean_F

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

Methinks uncivil war within the Tory party is about to break out again. Brexit has shifted the tectonic plates and is going to reform all parties.

I don't. It turned out that the Referendum result was far the best outcome for Tory unity.

williamglenn

Sean_F said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

Methinks uncivil war within the Tory party is about to break out again. Brexit has shifted the tectonic plates and is going to reform all parties.

I don't. It turned out that the Referendum result was far the best outcome for Tory unity.

Only until real choices need to be made.

dr_spyn

Someone failed her quantitative analysis papers.

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/817353705330720770

She must know that Labour's values have dropped.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

Theuniondivvie

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

I think at some point very soon we'll be told it means Brexit.

Alanbrooke

Mrs May's honeymoon period will go on as long as Jezza stays in place

until there's a sensible alternative she's got an easy ride

daodao

Sandpit said:

Morning. On topic : Quite a while yet, while her her opposition is Mr "Hamas" Corbyn and Mr "Ignore the Plebs" Farron.

There is no need to insult the leaders of political parties in this way. Both are decent men and it is their lack of ability and people-handling skills that are a key part of their problems.

The vote for Brexit was a narrow one and Mr Farron is entitled to oppose proceeding with it; the referendum was only advisory and it is for Parliament, which has ultimate sovereignty, to decide whether to invoke A50 (assuming the Supreme Court rejects the HMG's appeal). The LD by-election victory in Richmond shows that there is considerable support for his views in some places.

Mr Corbyn is entitled to be sympathetic to Hamas and most British people don't give a damn. Being anti-Zionist is not an electoral handicap and he is not the first prominent Labour politician to hold such views - remember foreign secretary Ernest Bevin.

philiph

rural_voter said:

CarlottaVance said:

peter_from_putney said:

" That May election must be looking attractive at No 10."

Maybe ..... but only if she has good cause for calling it. The great British won't thank her, in fact will punish her, for simply calling a GE which is simply seen as being opportunistic, all the more so bearing in mind that this would be barely 10 months after they were previously called to the polling booths to cast their votes in the EU referendum. Potentially dangerous territory and based on the old boundaries to boot.

I agree. The Great British Public has been asked two big questions in short order, given their answers and now look to the political class to sort it out - "tuning out" may be one factor in May's ratings robustness.

Thanks to the excellent FTPA, a snap GE would probably receive more bad publicity than they did when an PM could call one at the drop of a hat. The only amendment I'd make to the FPTA is to change it to four years.

BTW, having just had my continental brexit, my contribution to the debate is to suggest PB allows the word 'Brexit' in posts for only one or two hours per day, perhaps 10 pm to midnight. Then those who wish can rant away and I can watch TV or sleep.

Discussing the SC or EU parliament at other times seems fine but they are some huge political issues to face with or without the EU, like

a social care system collapsing to the extent that the Red Cross intervenes
millions of people in s**t rented accommodation
harassment/sanctioning of benefits claimants
a disastrous current a/c deficit
etc

I'm not sure the Red Cross enhances it's reputation with announcements of a humanitarian crisis in NHS.

AlastairMeeks

philiph said:

rural_voter said:

CarlottaVance said:

peter_from_putney said:

" That May election must be looking attractive at No 10."

Maybe ..... but only if she has good cause for calling it. The great British won't thank her, in fact will punish her, for simply calling a GE which is simply seen as being opportunistic, all the more so bearing in mind that this would be barely 10 months after they were previously called to the polling booths to cast their votes in the EU referendum. Potentially dangerous territory and based on the old boundaries to boot.

I agree. The Great British Public has been asked two big questions in short order, given their answers and now look to the political class to sort it out - "tuning out" may be one factor in May's ratings robustness.

Thanks to the excellent FTPA, a snap GE would probably receive more bad publicity than they did when an PM could call one at the drop of a hat. The only amendment I'd make to the FPTA is to change it to four years.

BTW, having just had my continental brexit, my contribution to the debate is to suggest PB allows the word 'Brexit' in posts for only one or two hours per day, perhaps 10 pm to midnight. Then those who wish can rant away and I can watch TV or sleep.

Discussing the SC or EU parliament at other times seems fine but they are some huge political issues to face with or without the EU, like

a social care system collapsing to the extent that the Red Cross intervenes
millions of people in s**t rented accommodation
harassment/sanctioning of benefits claimants
a disastrous current a/c deficit
etc

I'm not sure the Red Cross enhances it's reputation with announcements of a humanitarian crisis in NHS.

Nothing that £350 million a week isn't sorting out, I'm sure.

PlatoSaid

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

I followed some of the Ft Lauderdale shooting earlier - shooter seems to be messed up Hispanic ex-soldier who's hung out on Islamic forums for years.

JosiasJessop

daodao said:

Sandpit said:

Morning. On topic : Quite a while yet, while her her opposition is Mr "Hamas" Corbyn and Mr "Ignore the Plebs" Farron.

There is no need to insult the leaders of political parties in this way. Both are decent men and it is their lack of ability and people-handling skills that are a key part of their problems.

The vote for Brexit was a narrow one and Mr Farron is entitled to oppose proceeding with it; the referendum was only advisory and it is for Parliament, which has ultimate sovereignty, to decide whether to invoke A50 (assuming the Supreme Court rejects the HMG's appeal). The LD by-election victory in Richmond shows that there is considerable support for his views in some places.

Mr Corbyn is entitled to be sympathetic to Hamas and most British people don't give a damn. Being anti-Zionist is not an electoral handicap and he is not the first prominent Labour politician to hold such views - remember foreign secretary Ernest Bevin.

Why do you think Farron has a 'lack of ability and people-handling skills' ?

The evidence seems to be there for Corbyn: he cannot even keep his MPs alongside and take the fight to the government. But Farron appears to be doing a good job in reinvigorating his party. Whilst I think he'll never win a general election, that's not what the Lib Dems are targeting.

Farron's doing a good job IMO.

philiph

AlastairMeeks said:

philiph said:

rural_voter said:

CarlottaVance said:

peter_from_putney said:

" That May election must be looking attractive at No 10."

Maybe ..... but only if she has good cause for calling it. The great British won't thank her, in fact will punish her, for simply calling a GE which is simply seen as being opportunistic, all the more so bearing in mind that this would be barely 10 months after they were previously called to the polling booths to cast their votes in the EU referendum. Potentially dangerous territory and based on the old boundaries to boot.

I agree. The Great British Public has been asked two big questions in short order, given their answers and now look to the political class to sort it out - "tuning out" may be one factor in May's ratings robustness.

Thanks to the excellent FTPA, a snap GE would probably receive more bad publicity than they did when an PM could call one at the drop of a hat. The only amendment I'd make to the FPTA is to change it to four years.

BTW, having just had my continental brexit, my contribution to the debate is to suggest PB allows the word 'Brexit' in posts for only one or two hours per day, perhaps 10 pm to midnight. Then those who wish can rant away and I can watch TV or sleep.

Discussing the SC or EU parliament at other times seems fine but they are some huge political issues to face with or without the EU, like

a social care system collapsing to the extent that the Red Cross intervenes
millions of people in s**t rented accommodation
harassment/sanctioning of benefits claimants
a disastrous current a/c deficit
etc

I'm not sure the Red Cross enhances it's reputation with announcements of a humanitarian crisis in NHS.

Nothing that £350 million a week isn't sorting out, I'm sure.

It also belittles the concept of a humanitarian crisis.

More money is not the solution to the NHS, it is a part of the solution.

RobD

AlastairMeeks said:

philiph said:

rural_voter said:

CarlottaVance said:

peter_from_putney said:

" That May election must be looking attractive at No 10."

Maybe ..... but only if she has good cause for calling it. The great British won't thank her, in fact will punish her, for simply calling a GE which is simply seen as being opportunistic, all the more so bearing in mind that this would be barely 10 months after they were previously called to the polling booths to cast their votes in the EU referendum. Potentially dangerous territory and based on the old boundaries to boot.

I agree. The Great British Public has been asked two big questions in short order, given their answers and now look to the political class to sort it out - "tuning out" may be one factor in May's ratings robustness.

Thanks to the excellent FTPA, a snap GE would probably receive more bad publicity than they did when an PM could call one at the drop of a hat. The only amendment I'd make to the FPTA is to change it to four years.

BTW, having just had my continental brexit, my contribution to the debate is to suggest PB allows the word 'Brexit' in posts for only one or two hours per day, perhaps 10 pm to midnight. Then those who wish can rant away and I can watch TV or sleep.

Discussing the SC or EU parliament at other times seems fine but they are some huge political issues to face with or without the EU, like

a social care system collapsing to the extent that the Red Cross intervenes
millions of people in s**t rented accommodation
harassment/sanctioning of benefits claimants
a disastrous current a/c deficit
etc

I'm not sure the Red Cross enhances it's reputation with announcements of a humanitarian crisis in NHS.

Nothing that £350 million a week isn't sorting out, I'm sure.

Bit early for that since we still need to pay our dues.

JosiasJessop

Sean_F said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

Methinks uncivil war within the Tory party is about to break out again. Brexit has shifted the tectonic plates and is going to reform all parties.

I don't. It turned out that the Referendum result was far the best outcome for Tory unity.

*If* it is, it'll be because Conservative remainers have more loyalty to the party than the 'bastards' who caused it decades of trouble and helped bring down Major.

They're the traitors.

rural_voter

philiph said:

rural_voter said:

CarlottaVance said:

peter_from_putney said:

" That May election must be looking attractive at No 10."

Maybe ..... but only if she has good cause for calling it. The great British won't thank her, in fact will punish her, for simply calling a GE which is simply seen as being opportunistic, all the more so bearing in mind that this would be barely 10 months after they were previously called to the polling booths to cast their votes in the EU referendum. Potentially dangerous territory and based on the old boundaries to boot.

I agree. The Great British Public has been asked two big questions in short order, given their answers and now look to the political class to sort it out - "tuning out" may be one factor in May's ratings robustness.

Thanks to the excellent FTPA, a snap GE would probably receive more bad publicity than they did when an PM could call one at the drop of a hat. The only amendment I'd make to the FPTA is to change it to four years.

BTW, having just had my continental brexit, my contribution to the debate is to suggest PB allows the word 'Brexit' in posts for only one or two hours per day, perhaps 10 pm to midnight. Then those who wish can rant away and I can watch TV or sleep.

Discussing the SC or EU parliament at other times seems fine but they are some huge political issues to face with or without the EU, like

a social care system collapsing to the extent that the Red Cross intervenes
millions of people in s**t rented accommodation
harassment/sanctioning of benefits claimants
a disastrous current a/c deficit
etc

I'm not sure the Red Cross enhances it's reputation with announcements of a humanitarian crisis in NHS.

I think they may be right given that the UK spends less than most EU countries, let alone the 'privatised' USA/17% or 'socialised' Canada/over 10%.

Actually, with better organisation of NHS/social care and the interface, the outcome could be less bad, but what hope for that?

Sandpit

daodao said:

Sandpit said:

Morning. On topic : Quite a while yet, while her her opposition is Mr "Hamas" Corbyn and Mr "Ignore the Plebs" Farron.

There is no need to insult the leaders of political parties in this way. Both are decent men and it is their lack of ability and people-handling skills that are a key part of their problems.

The vote for Brexit was a narrow one and Mr Farron is entitled to oppose proceeding with it; the referendum was only advisory and it is for Parliament, which has ultimate sovereignty, to decide whether to invoke A50 (assuming the Supreme Court rejects the HMG's appeal). The LD by-election victory in Richmond shows that there is considerable support for his views in some places.

Mr Corbyn is entitled to be sympathetic to Hamas and most British people don't give a damn. Being anti-Zionist is not an electoral handicap and he is not the first prominent Labour politician to hold such views - remember foreign secretary Ernest Bevin.

While Mrs May's principal opponents have such views as supporting terrorists, allowing unlimited immigration and overturning the result of a referendum in which 34 million people voted, she doesn't have too much to worry about politically.

Jonathan

The moment article 50 is triggered.

daodao

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

Sandpit said:

Morning. On topic : Quite a while yet, while her her opposition is Mr "Hamas" Corbyn and Mr "Ignore the Plebs" Farron.

There is no need to insult the leaders of political parties in this way. Both are decent men and it is their lack of ability and people-handling skills that are a key part of their problems.

The vote for Brexit was a narrow one and Mr Farron is entitled to oppose proceeding with it; the referendum was only advisory and it is for Parliament, which has ultimate sovereignty, to decide whether to invoke A50 (assuming the Supreme Court rejects the HMG's appeal). The LD by-election victory in Richmond shows that there is considerable support for his views in some places.

Mr Corbyn is entitled to be sympathetic to Hamas and most British people don't give a damn. Being anti-Zionist is not an electoral handicap and he is not the first prominent Labour politician to hold such views - remember foreign secretary Ernest Bevin.

Why do you think Farron has a 'lack of ability and people-handling skills' ?

The evidence seems to be there for Corbyn: he cannot even keep his MPs alongside and take the fight to the government. But Farron appears to be doing a good job in reinvigorating his party. Whilst I think he'll never win a general election, that's not what the Lib Dems are targeting.

Farron's doing a good job IMO.

May be I was being a little uncharitable to Farron; the evidence about his people-handling skills isn't available for the leader of a party whose MPs could fit into 2 taxis.

felix

daodao said:

Sandpit said:

Morning. On topic : Quite a while yet, while her her opposition is Mr "Hamas" Corbyn and Mr "Ignore the Plebs" Farron.

There is no need to insult the leaders of political parties in this way. Both are decent men and it is their lack of ability and people-handling skills that are a key part of their problems.

The vote for Brexit was a narrow one and Mr Farron is entitled to oppose proceeding with it; the referendum was only advisory and it is for Parliament, which has ultimate sovereignty, to decide whether to invoke A50 (assuming the Supreme Court rejects the HMG's appeal). The LD by-election victory in Richmond shows that there is considerable support for his views in some places.

Mr Corbyn is entitled to be sympathetic to Hamas and most British people don't give a damn. Being anti-Zionist is not an electoral handicap and he is not the first prominent Labour politician to hold such views - remember foreign secretary Ernest Bevin.

Wow. so Corbyn's views are having zero impact on polling about his suitability to be PM. now that is a view!

SouthamObserver

Alanbrooke said:

Mrs May's honeymoon period will go on as long as Jezza stays in place

until there's a sensible alternative she's got an easy ride

Exactly. If you're not the worst option it does not matter how mediocre and uninspiring you are.

philiph

rural_voter said:

philiph said:

rural_voter said:

CarlottaVance said:

peter_from_putney said:

" That May election must be looking attractive at No 10."

Maybe ..... but only if she has good cause for calling it. The great British won't thank her, in fact will punish her, for simply calling a GE which is simply seen as being opportunistic, all the more so bearing in mind that this would be barely 10 months after they were previously called to the polling booths to cast their votes in the EU referendum. Potentially dangerous territory and based on the old boundaries to boot.

I agree. The Great British Public has been asked two big questions in short order, given their answers and now look to the political class to sort it out - "tuning out" may be one factor in May's ratings robustness.

Thanks to the excellent FTPA, a snap GE would probably receive more bad publicity than they did when an PM could call one at the drop of a hat. The only amendment I'd make to the FPTA is to change it to four years.

BTW, having just had my continental brexit, my contribution to the debate is to suggest PB allows the word 'Brexit' in posts for only one or two hours per day, perhaps 10 pm to midnight. Then those who wish can rant away and I can watch TV or sleep.

Discussing the SC or EU parliament at other times seems fine but they are some huge political issues to face with or without the EU, like

a social care system collapsing to the extent that the Red Cross intervenes
millions of people in s**t rented accommodation
harassment/sanctioning of benefits claimants
a disastrous current a/c deficit
etc

I'm not sure the Red Cross enhances it's reputation with announcements of a humanitarian crisis in NHS.

I think they may be right given that the UK spends less than most EU countries, let alone the 'privatised' USA/17% or 'socialised' Canada/over 10%.

Actually, with better organisation of NHS/social care and the interface, the outcome could be less bad, but what hope for that?

Humanitarian crisis is an emotional term, think Allepo, earth quake or tsunami destruction and victims without water or starvation of whole regions.

If it is the poor state of NHS and social care, then you won't get many donations for other humanitarian crises.

Sandpit

philiph said:

rural_voter said:

CarlottaVance said:

peter_from_putney said:

" That May election must be looking attractive at No 10."

Maybe ..... but only if she has good cause for calling it. The great British won't thank her, in fact will punish her, for simply calling a GE which is simply seen as being opportunistic, all the more so bearing in mind that this would be barely 10 months after they were previously called to the polling booths to cast their votes in the EU referendum. Potentially dangerous territory and based on the old boundaries to boot.

I agree. The Great British Public has been asked two big questions in short order, given their answers and now look to the political class to sort it out - "tuning out" may be one factor in May's ratings robustness.

Thanks to the excellent FTPA, a snap GE would probably receive more bad publicity than they did when an PM could call one at the drop of a hat. The only amendment I'd make to the FPTA is to change it to four years.

BTW, having just had my continental brexit, my contribution to the debate is to suggest PB allows the word 'Brexit' in posts for only one or two hours per day, perhaps 10 pm to midnight. Then those who wish can rant away and I can watch TV or sleep.

Discussing the SC or EU parliament at other times seems fine but they are some huge political issues to face with or without the EU, like

a social care system collapsing to the extent that the Red Cross intervenes
millions of people in s**t rented accommodation
harassment/sanctioning of benefits claimants
a disastrous current a/c deficit
etc

I'm not sure the Red Cross enhances it's reputation with announcements of a humanitarian crisis in NHS.

Quite. A bit like the 'poverty' charities, who define that term as only being able to afford an iPhone 6 when your neighbour has as iPhone 7. Charity sector ripe for some serious reform.

Trick question for you : For how many people did the charity Shelter provide shelter this Christmas?

NickPalmer

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

The local newspaper plus the police plus the Justice Minister plus the right-wing tabloid Bild-Zeitung on one side, Breitbart on the other. Tough choice?

MikeSmithson

Farron's people handling skills didn't undermine the huge effort in Richmond Park where a party on single figures in the polls overturned a 23k majority.

Having been a Farron-sceptic I've now switched. Just go ask those CON MPs who'll be defending SW seats against the LDs. They are the one who are most opposed to an early general election.

Sandpit

NickPalmer said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

The local newspaper plus the police plus the Justice Minister plus the right-wing tabloid Bild-Zeitung on one side, Breitbart on the other. Tough choice?

Rotherham social services, plus Council members, plus SY Police on one side, Nick Griffin and the BNP on the other. Tough choice?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Palmer, natural consequence of the police, following a slew of beheadings/stabbings (some unsuccessful, claiming they were lone wolf attacks, nothing to do with terrorism (whilst also stigmatising the mentally ill a little bit more).

foxinsoxuk

daodao said:

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

Sandpit said:

Morning. On topic : Quite a while yet, while her her opposition is Mr "Hamas" Corbyn and Mr "Ignore the Plebs" Farron.

There is no need to insult the leaders of political parties in this way. Both are decent men and it is their lack of ability and people-handling skills that are a key part of their problems.

The vote for Brexit was a narrow one and Mr Farron is entitled to oppose proceeding with it; the referendum was only advisory and it is for Parliament, which has ultimate sovereignty, to decide whether to invoke A50 (assuming the Supreme Court rejects the HMG's appeal). The LD by-election victory in Richmond shows that there is considerable support for his views in some places.

Mr Corbyn is entitled to be sympathetic to Hamas and most British people don't give a damn. Being anti-Zionist is not an electoral handicap and he is not the first prominent Labour politician to hold such views - remember foreign secretary Ernest Bevin.

Why do you think Farron has a 'lack of ability and people-handling skills' ?

The evidence seems to be there for Corbyn: he cannot even keep his MPs alongside and take the fight to the government. But Farron appears to be doing a good job in reinvigorating his party. Whilst I think he'll never win a general election, that's not what the Lib Dems are targeting.

Farron's doing a good job IMO.

May be I was being a little uncharitable to Farron; the evidence about his people-handling skills isn't available for the leader of a party whose MPs could fit into 2 taxis.

Tim Farron doesn't have a lot of gravitas, and it is hard to see him as PM, or even in cabinet, but that is not his role. He is a grass roots organiser and campaigner, and strong on issues that matter to a lot of voters such as housing and the positive side of social conservatism. He had the political savvy to stay on the backbenches during the coalition. Under estimate him at your peril.

Jezza is growing on me a bit too. I like his resilience, and he seems to be genuinely allowing local parties to choose their own candidates at all levels, and find their own way forward. In time that is going to regenerate a strong and diverse Labour party once more. The exclusion of the Labour centrists is mostly self inflicted self indulgence, but I think that that great sulk is also nearing its end.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Smithson, any word on a possible unbanning of Mr. K? [Sorry to keep banging on about this, but he's not sure what the situation is and clarity would be appreciated].

Roger

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

I followed some of the Ft Lauderdale shooting earlier - shooter seems to be messed up Hispanic ex-soldier who's hung out on Islamic forums for years.

Of course! It alll makes sense now.......

JosiasJessop

daodao said:

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

Sandpit said:

Morning. On topic : Quite a while yet, while her her opposition is Mr "Hamas" Corbyn and Mr "Ignore the Plebs" Farron.

There is no need to insult the leaders of political parties in this way. Both are decent men and it is their lack of ability and people-handling skills that are a key part of their problems.

The vote for Brexit was a narrow one and Mr Farron is entitled to oppose proceeding with it; the referendum was only advisory and it is for Parliament, which has ultimate sovereignty, to decide whether to invoke A50 (assuming the Supreme Court rejects the HMG's appeal). The LD by-election victory in Richmond shows that there is considerable support for his views in some places.

Mr Corbyn is entitled to be sympathetic to Hamas and most British people don't give a damn. Being anti-Zionist is not an electoral handicap and he is not the first prominent Labour politician to hold such views - remember foreign secretary Ernest Bevin.

Why do you think Farron has a 'lack of ability and people-handling skills' ?

The evidence seems to be there for Corbyn: he cannot even keep his MPs alongside and take the fight to the government. But Farron appears to be doing a good job in reinvigorating his party. Whilst I think he'll never win a general election, that's not what the Lib Dems are targeting.

Farron's doing a good job IMO.

May be I was being a little uncharitable to Farron; the evidence about his people-handling skills isn't available for the leader of a party whose MPs could fit into 2 taxis.

It's not just about MPs with the Lib Dems: it's about activists. And as Richmond shows, they could get lots of people out; enough to win. That involved handling not just the MPs, but all parts of the party's hierarchy.

If the leaders were management:

I'd see Corbyn as the new CEO of an old firm, promoted up by his few acolytes within the firm in a boardroom coup. Sales in a few small areas are doing well, but are generally tanking. He has continually trashed his brand, and the customers are deserting in droves.

Farron is a competent but unassuming middle-manager who has got the top job. The company had suffered a disastrous period a few years ago, and he is working to a plan to get back as many old customers as possible. Manages to inspire his slightly odd staff.

May is a longstanding middle-manager who reached the top job after a tumultuous period for her company. She needs to find the company a new direction and forge new strategic alliances, but her competitors might not be willing to help. After a few months has made no obvious major decisions, and the shareholders are getting restless.

SouthamObserver

Roger said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

I followed some of the Ft Lauderdale shooting earlier - shooter seems to be messed up Hispanic ex-soldier who's hung out on Islamic forums for years.

Of course! I alll makes sense now.......

The sense of disappointment among some that the Fort Lauderdale killer is not a moslem and the Dortmund mob story was a lie is palpable.

philiph

NickPalmer said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

The local newspaper plus the police plus the Justice Minister plus the right-wing tabloid Bild-Zeitung on one side, Breitbart on the other. Tough choice?

Generally the answer to that question is yes and no. In this case it seems reasonable to go with the official version.

In general first hand opinions, those who were there know. Others know what they were told. If they were told a lie by a trusted source, the lie will be propagated. The rank of the individual is no guarantee of the veracity of the words spouted.

Example comical Ali (was that his name?) saying there are no American tanks here. There are numerous examples of official statements deviating from the actuality, and not just in pariah States.

foxinsoxuk

@Morris_Dancer

Thought that you would appreciate this link.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/migrants-should-have-to-perform-passable-morris-dance-20170106119757

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Observer, who's disappointed?

Of course nobody wants attacks in Germany, or anywhere else, but it'd also be nice if we felt we could trust the authorities to be honest, without spinning stories or taking 'cultural sensitivities' into account.

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Foxinsox, it's the only sensible test of integration.

SouthamObserver

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

The local newspaper plus the police plus the Justice Minister plus the right-wing tabloid Bild-Zeitung on one side, Breitbart on the other. Tough choice?

Rotherham social services, plus Council members, plus SY Police on one side, Nick Griffin and the BNP on the other. Tough choice?

It was not unreasonable to ignore unsubstantiated claims made by white supremacists with a long track record of lying. The disgrace was to ignore and/or underplay the Times investigation and the testimony of victims and whistleblowers.

isam

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

May's ratings are hard to assess because her principal opponent is as popular as a leper at an orgy and there's one issue which will determine whether she's a success or failure.

OT: any word on a possible New Year reprieve for Mr. K, who was banned for reasons yet unknown around Christmas?

Moses, GeoffM and TCPoliticalBetting all banned as well

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

I followed some of the Ft Lauderdale shooting earlier - shooter seems to be messed up Hispanic ex-soldier who's hung out on Islamic forums for years.

Of course! I alll makes sense now.......

The sense of disappointment among some that the Fort Lauderdale killer is not a moslem and the Dortmund mob story was a lie is palpable.

Can't say I'm seeing it myself, but okay.

MikeSmithson

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Smithson, any word on a possible unbanning of Mr. K? [Sorry to keep banging on about this, but he's not sure what the situation is and clarity would be appreciated].

Mr K. Is that the name he uses here?

PlatoSaid

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, who's disappointed?

Of course nobody wants attacks in Germany, or anywhere else, but it'd also be nice if we felt we could trust the authorities to be honest, without spinning stories or taking 'cultural sensitivities' into account.

Air Canada were most upset to be included in the latest shooting - he wasn't their passenger and didn't enter from Canada. This 'fact' was all over CNN and others.

isam

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

I followed some of the Ft Lauderdale shooting earlier - shooter seems to be messed up Hispanic ex-soldier who's hung out on Islamic forums for years.

Of course! I alll makes sense now.......

The sense of disappointment among some that the Fort Lauderdale killer is not a moslem and the Dortmund mob story was a lie is palpable.

Can't say I'm seeing it myself, but okay.

Must have been saving that one up for a while!

RobD

isam said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

May's ratings are hard to assess because her principal opponent is as popular as a leper at an orgy and there's one issue which will determine whether she's a success or failure.

OT: any word on a possible New Year reprieve for Mr. K, who was banned for reasons yet unknown around Christmas?

Moses, GeoffM and TCPoliticalBetting all banned as well

Moses was on here a few days ago, I think on New Years eve/day.

philiph

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

The local newspaper plus the police plus the Justice Minister plus the right-wing tabloid Bild-Zeitung on one side, Breitbart on the other. Tough choice?

Rotherham social services, plus Council members, plus SY Police on one side, Nick Griffin and the BNP on the other. Tough choice?

It was not unreasonable to ignore unsubstantiated claims made by white supremacists with a long track record of lying. The disgrace was to ignore and/or underplay the Times investigation and the testimony of victims and whistleblowers.

It turned out to be unreasonable.

If you put all those with long track records of lying on ignore, we will be short of action on the words of politicians, police and man utd supporters to name a few.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Smithson, it's MikeK.

daodao

deleted

daodao

JosiasJessop said:

It's not just about MPs with the Lib Dems: it's about activists. And as Richmond shows, they could get lots of people out; enough to win. That involved handling not just the MPs, but all parts of the party's hierarchy.

If the leaders were management:

I'd see Corbyn as the new CEO of an old firm, promoted up by his few acolytes within the firm in a boardroom coup. Sales in a few small areas are doing well, but are generally tanking. He has continually trashed his brand, and the customers are deserting in droves.

Farron is a competent but unassuming middle-manager who has got the top job. The company had suffered a disastrous period a few years ago, and he is working to a plan to get back as many old customers as possible. Manages to inspire his slightly odd staff.

May is a longstanding middle-manager who reached the top job after a tumultuous period for her company. She needs to find the company a new direction and forge new strategic alliances, but her competitors might not be willing to help. After a few months has made no obvious major decisions, and the shareholders are getting restless.

Well put, but I think the LD revival in the last 6 months is more to do with them having found a cause; they oppose Brexit (especially of the hard variety) and the government led by TM is no longer a continuation of the Cameroon project with which they worked very closely for 5 years.

RobD

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, who's disappointed?

Of course nobody wants attacks in Germany, or anywhere else, but it'd also be nice if we felt we could trust the authorities to be honest, without spinning stories or taking 'cultural sensitivities' into account.

Air Canada were most upset to be included in the latest shooting - he wasn't their passenger and didn't enter from Canada. This 'fact' was all over CNN and others.

Alaska, Canada.. close enough

isam

RobD said:

isam said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

May's ratings are hard to assess because her principal opponent is as popular as a leper at an orgy and there's one issue which will determine whether she's a success or failure.

OT: any word on a possible New Year reprieve for Mr. K, who was banned for reasons yet unknown around Christmas?

Moses, GeoffM and TCPoliticalBetting all banned as well

Moses was on here a few days ago, I think on New Years eve/day.

"Roles Applicant" now I believe...

SouthamObserver

philiph said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

The local newspaper plus the police plus the Justice Minister plus the right-wing tabloid Bild-Zeitung on one side, Breitbart on the other. Tough choice?

Rotherham social services, plus Council members, plus SY Police on one side, Nick Griffin and the BNP on the other. Tough choice?

It was not unreasonable to ignore unsubstantiated claims made by white supremacists with a long track record of lying. The disgrace was to ignore and/or underplay the Times investigation and the testimony of victims and whistleblowers.

It turned out to be unreasonable.

If you put all those with long track records of lying on ignore, we will be short of action on the words of politicians, police and man utd supporters to name a few.

It turned out to be wrong, not unreasonable. In a world of finite resources it's hard to justify following up on claims made by avowed white supremacists and holocaust deniers. It was wrong, though, not to follow up on what was said by far more credible sources.

foxinsoxuk

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

I followed some of the Ft Lauderdale shooting earlier - shooter seems to be messed up Hispanic ex-soldier who's hung out on Islamic forums for years.

Of course! I alll makes sense now.......

The sense of disappointment among some that the Fort Lauderdale killer is not a moslem and the Dortmund mob story was a lie is palpable.

Indeed it does seem as if the Fort Lauderdale attack shows the poor pastoral care of US military, and of psychiatric care of veterans in a bad light rather than anything to do with Islamist plots.

Not a theme that the Trumpster are so keen on, I suspect.

MaxPB

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

Methinks uncivil war within the Tory party is about to break out again. Brexit has shifted the tectonic plates and is going to reform all parties.

Unlikely. I tell you this as a party member and as a voter. Almost all of the party is reconciled to leaving whatever they voted for. Look on here as an example, it isn't the Tory remainers who are bitching about it on a daily basis. Almost all of them now believe we must leave the EU. Don't forget before the referendum it was the Tory supporters on here who were split down the middle, now there is a sense of unity in leaving, even if some are less enthusiastic than others. A vote to remain would have been cause for the party to split or a caused a new civil war, but not leave.

The party has been sceptical of the EU for as long as I can remember, leaving is the natural position of most members and voters. Even though some decided that remain was worth it for short term economic gain, two thirds of the party members lined up against the leadership at the referendum and the other third, well from what I could see, they didn't have their hearts in the campaign. I was invited to a remain campaign event in the heart of remainer West London and it was like walking into a funeral. The Tories there that I knew were extremely downbeat. In contrast the leave campaign had boundless energy, even when we were getting 60/40 returns against us, everyone kept going. The Tories in that group were especially motivated as well.

Anyway, take it from those of us in the party, the idea of a split post-leave is one for the birds. The likes of TSE are not anywhere near a majority of members or even voters. The Cameroons are barely a large minority in terms of members.

RobD

isam said:

RobD said:

isam said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

May's ratings are hard to assess because her principal opponent is as popular as a leper at an orgy and there's one issue which will determine whether she's a success or failure.

OT: any word on a possible New Year reprieve for Mr. K, who was banned for reasons yet unknown around Christmas?

Moses, GeoffM and TCPoliticalBetting all banned as well

Moses was on here a few days ago, I think on New Years eve/day.

"Roles Applicant" now I believe...

Check out his last comment, I think he's on the naughty step for a bit.

PlatoSaid

RobD said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, who's disappointed?

Of course nobody wants attacks in Germany, or anywhere else, but it'd also be nice if we felt we could trust the authorities to be honest, without spinning stories or taking 'cultural sensitivities' into account.

Air Canada were most upset to be included in the latest shooting - he wasn't their passenger and didn't enter from Canada. This 'fact' was all over CNN and others.

Alaska, Canada.. close enough

Things I Didn't Know Before - Alaska only has one mosque apparently.

RobD

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

I followed some of the Ft Lauderdale shooting earlier - shooter seems to be messed up Hispanic ex-soldier who's hung out on Islamic forums for years.

Of course! I alll makes sense now.......

The sense of disappointment among some that the Fort Lauderdale killer is not a moslem and the Dortmund mob story was a lie is palpable.

Indeed it does seem as if the Fort Lauderdale attack shows the poor pastoral care of US military, and of psychiatric care of veterans in a bad light rather than anything to do with Islamist plots.

Not a theme that the Trumpster are so keen on, I suspect.

Implying Trumpsters are keen on Islamic plots? I see far more comments like these than I do about people implying they were somehow disappointed event X wasn't an Islamic terrorist attack.

JosiasJessop

Given the recent problems with Vanilla, I wonder if these 'bans' are just problems with the system?

foxinsoxuk

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

Sandpit said:

Morning. On topic : Quite a while yet, while her her opposition is Mr "Hamas" Corbyn and Mr "Ignore the Plebs" Farron.

There is no need to insult the leaders of political parties in this way. Both are decent men and it is their lack of ability and people-handling skills that are a key part of their problems.

The vote for Brexit was a narrow

Mr Corbyn is entitled to be sympathetic to Hamas and most British people don't give a damn. Being anti-Zionist is not an electoral handicap and he is not the first prominent Labour politician to hold such views - remember foreign secretary Ernest Bevin.

Why do you think Farron has a 'lack of ability and people-handling skills' ?

The evidence seems to be there for Corbyn: he cannot even keep his MPs alongside and take the fight to the government. But Farron appears to be doing a good job in reinvigorating his party. Whilst I think he'll never win a general election, that's not what the Lib Dems are targeting.

Farron's doing a good job IMO.

May be I was being a little uncharitable to Farron; the evidence about his people-handling skills isn't available for the leader of a party whose MPs could fit into 2 taxis.

It's not just about MPs with the Lib Dems: it's about activists. And as Richmond shows, they could get lots of people out; enough to win. That involved handling not just the MPs, but all parts of the party's hierarchy.

If the leaders were management:

I'd see Corbyn as the new CEO of an old firm, promoted up by his few acolytes within the firm in a boardroom coup. Sales in a few small areas are doing well, but are generally tanking. He has continually trashed his brand, and the customers are deserting in droves.

Farron is a competent but unassuming middle-manager who has got the top job. The company had suffered a disastrous period a few years ago, and he is working to a plan to get back as many old customers as possible. Manages to inspire his slightly odd staff.

May is a longstanding middle-manager who reached the top job after a tumultuous period for her company. She needs to find the company a new direction and forge new strategic alliances, but her competitors might not be willing to help. After a few months has made no obvious major decisions, and the shareholders are getting restless.

I agree. We shall soon find out if May is an empty vessel. I suspect so.

philiph

SouthamObserver said:

philiph said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

The local newspaper plus the police plus the Justice Minister plus the right-wing tabloid Bild-Zeitung on one side, Breitbart on the other. Tough choice?

Rotherham social services, plus Council members, plus SY Police on one side, Nick Griffin and the BNP on the other. Tough choice?

It was not unreasonable to ignore unsubstantiated claims made by white supremacists with a long track record of lying. The disgrace was to ignore and/or underplay the Times investigation and the testimony of victims and whistleblowers.

It turned out to be unreasonable.

If you put all those with long track records of lying on ignore, we will be short of action on the words of politicians, police and man utd supporters to name a few.

It turned out to be wrong, not unreasonable. In a world of finite resources it's hard to justify following up on claims made by avowed white supremacists and holocaust deniers. It was wrong, though, not to follow up on what was said by far more credible sources.

OK

You only follow up on things put forward by people who share your views.

While I don't endorse BNP etc, I think the logic of your statement leads to a nasty dictatorial intolerant outcome.

foxinsoxuk

PlatoSaid said:

RobD said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, who's disappointed?

Of course nobody wants attacks in Germany, or anywhere else, but it'd also be nice if we felt we could trust the authorities to be honest, without spinning stories or taking 'cultural sensitivities' into account.

Air Canada were most upset to be included in the latest shooting - he wasn't their passenger and didn't enter from Canada. This 'fact' was all over CNN and others.

Alaska, Canada.. close enough

Things I Didn't Know Before - Alaska only has one mosque apparently.

Must be tough doing the Ramadan fast up there in midsummer this year..

Yorkcity

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

Mrs May's honeymoon period will go on as long as Jezza stays in place

until there's a sensible alternative she's got an easy ride

Exactly. If you're not the worst option it does not matter how mediocre and uninspiring you are.

Mediocre and uninspiring you are to kind on Mrs Doubtfire. Just shows what a limited choice the conservative members had.(they did not get one )Labour at least got a choice in 2015 even if it was very mediocre and uninspiring.

RobD

foxinsoxuk said:

PlatoSaid said:

RobD said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, who's disappointed?

Of course nobody wants attacks in Germany, or anywhere else, but it'd also be nice if we felt we could trust the authorities to be honest, without spinning stories or taking 'cultural sensitivities' into account.

Air Canada were most upset to be included in the latest shooting - he wasn't their passenger and didn't enter from Canada. This 'fact' was all over CNN and others.

Alaska, Canada.. close enough

Things I Didn't Know Before - Alaska only has one mosque apparently.

Must be tough doing the Ramadan fast up there in midsummer this year..

According to the internet, those in the far North fast with the closest Islamic country, or with Mecca. Sounds like a reasonable compromise.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/07/how-to-fast-for-ramadan-in-the-arctic-where-the-sun-doesnt-set/277834/

PlatoSaid

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

I followed some of the Ft Lauderdale shooting earlier - shooter seems to be messed up Hispanic ex-soldier who's hung out on Islamic forums for years.

Of course! I alll makes sense now.......

The sense of disappointment among some that the Fort Lauderdale killer is not a moslem and the Dortmund mob story was a lie is palpable.

Indeed it does seem as if the Fort Lauderdale attack shows the poor pastoral care of US military, and of psychiatric care of veterans in a bad light rather than anything to do with Islamist plots.

Not a theme that the Trumpster are so keen on, I suspect.

Implying Trumpsters are keen on Islamic plots? I see far more comments like these than I do about people implying they were somehow disappointed event X wasn't an Islamic terrorist attack.

I read that the guy walked into an FBI office and said ISIS were trying to make him their soldier or somesuch. Failure all round on this one.

foxinsoxuk

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

Methinks uncivil war within the Tory party is about to break out again. Brexit has shifted the tectonic plates and is going to reform all parties.

Unlikely. I tell you this as a party member and as a voter. Almost all of the party is reconciled to leaving whatever they voted for. Look on here as an example, it isn't the Tory remainers who are bitching about it on a daily basis. Almost all of them now believe we must leave the EU. Don't forget before the referendum it was the Tory supporters on here who were split down the middle, now there is a sense of unity in leaving, even if some are less enthusiastic than others. A vote to remain would have been cause for the party to split or a caused a new civil war, but not leave.

The party has been sceptical of the EU for as long as I can remember, leaving is the natural position of most members and voters. Even though some decided that remain was worth it for short term economic gain, two thirds of the party members lined up against the leadership at the referendum and the other third, well from what I could see, they didn't have their hearts in the campaign. I was invited to a remain campaign event in the heart of remainer West London and it was like walking into a funeral. The Tories there that I knew were extremely downbeat. In contrast the leave campaign had boundless energy, even when we were getting 60/40 returns against us, everyone kept going. The Tories in that group were especially motivated as well.

Anyway, take it from those of us in the party, the idea of a split post-leave is one for the birds. The likes of TSE are not anywhere near a majority of members or even voters. The Cameroons are barely a large minority in terms of members.

I think the Tory split will be between hard and soft Brexiteers, not between Leavers and Remainers.

SouthamObserver

philiph said:

SouthamObserver said:

philiph said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

The local newspaper plus the police plus the Justice Minister plus the right-wing tabloid Bild-Zeitung on one side, Breitbart on the other. Tough choice?

Rotherham social services, plus Council members, plus SY Police on one side, Nick Griffin and the BNP on the other. Tough choice?

It was not unreasonable to ignore unsubstantiated claims made by white supremacists with a long track record of lying. The disgrace was to ignore and/or underplay the Times investigation and the testimony of victims and whistleblowers.

It turned out to be unreasonable.

If you put all those with long track records of lying on ignore, we will be short of action on the words of politicians, police and man utd supporters to name a few.

It turned out to be wrong, not unreasonable. In a world of finite resources it's hard to justify following up on claims made by avowed white supremacists and holocaust deniers. It was wrong, though, not to follow up on what was said by far more credible sources.

OK

You only follow up on things put forward by people who share your views.

While I don't endorse BNP etc, I think the logic of your statement leads to a nasty dictatorial intolerant outcome.

No, you follow up on stories from credible sources and you make a judgement on what is credible or not. White supremacists with long track records of spreading lies on issues such as holocaust denial are inevitably going to struggle to be taken seriously. What was outrageous was how the story was downplayed when far more credible sources emerged.

RobD

PlatoSaid said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

I followed some of the Ft Lauderdale shooting earlier - shooter seems to be messed up Hispanic ex-soldier who's hung out on Islamic forums for years.

Of course! I alll makes sense now.......

The sense of disappointment among some that the Fort Lauderdale killer is not a moslem and the Dortmund mob story was a lie is palpable.

Indeed it does seem as if the Fort Lauderdale attack shows the poor pastoral care of US military, and of psychiatric care of veterans in a bad light rather than anything to do with Islamist plots.

Not a theme that the Trumpster are so keen on, I suspect.

Implying Trumpsters are keen on Islamic plots? I see far more comments like these than I do about people implying they were somehow disappointed event X wasn't an Islamic terrorist attack.

I read that the guy walked into an FBI office and said ISIS were trying to make him their soldier or somesuch. Failure all round on this one.

You do have to wonder how many incidents there are like this that don't lead to the kind of shooting we saw yesterday. It's a tricky situation, I guess there is only so much they can do with finite resources. I think it more points to the ridiculous gun laws in the US. Who really needs to fly with a gun, even if it is in a checked bag.

philiph

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

Methinks uncivil war within the Tory party is about to break out again. Brexit has shifted the tectonic plates and is going to reform all parties.

Unlikely. I tell you this as a party member and as a voter. Almost all of the party is reconciled to leaving whatever they voted for. Look on here as an example, it isn't the Tory remainers who are bitching about it on a daily basis. Almost all of them now believe we must leave the EU. Don't forget before the referendum it was the Tory supporters on here who were split down the middle, now there is a sense of unity in leaving, even if some are less enthusiastic than others. A vote to remain would have been cause for the party to split or a caused a new civil war, but not leave.

The party has been sceptical of the EU for as long as I can remember, leaving is the natural position of most members and voters. Even though some decided that remain was worth it for short term economic gain, two thirds of the party members lined up against the leadership at the referendum and the other third, well from what I could see, they didn't have their hearts in the campaign. I was invited to a remain campaign event in the heart of remainer West London and it was like walking into a funeral. The Tories there that I knew were extremely downbeat. In contrast the leave campaign had boundless energy, even when we were getting 60/40 returns against us, everyone kept going. The Tories in that group were especially motivated as well.

Anyway, take it from those of us in the party, the idea of a split post-leave is one for the birds. The likes of TSE are not anywhere near a majority of members or even voters. The Cameroons are barely a large minority in terms of members.

I think the Tory split will be between hard and soft Brexiteers, not between Leavers and Remainers.

I think it is unlikely, as the Brexit we get will be negotiated. Those that don't like the outcome will be guided to aim discontent at the EU, not the government.

MaxPB

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

Methinks uncivil war within the Tory party is about to break out again. Brexit has shifted the tectonic plates and is going to reform all parties.

Unlikely. I tell you this as a party member and as a voter. Almost all of the party is reconciled to leaving whatever they voted for. Look on here as an example, it isn't the Tory remainers who are bitching about it on a daily basis. Almost all of them now believe we must leave the EU. Don't forget before the referendum it was the Tory supporters on here who were split down the middle, now there is a sense of unity in leaving, even if some are less enthusiastic than others. A vote to remain would have been cause for the party to split or a caused a new civil war, but not leave.

The party has been sceptical of the EU for as long as I can remember, leaving is the natural position of most members and voters. Even though some decided that remain was worth it for short term economic gain, two thirds of the party members lined up against the leadership at the referendum and the other third, well from what I could see, they didn't have their hearts in the campaign. I was invited to a remain campaign event in the heart of remainer West London and it was like walking into a funeral. The Tories there that I knew were extremely downbeat. In contrast the leave campaign had boundless energy, even when we were getting 60/40 returns against us, everyone kept going. The Tories in that group were especially motivated as well.

Anyway, take it from those of us in the party, the idea of a split post-leave is one for the birds. The likes of TSE are not anywhere near a majority of members or even voters. The Cameroons are barely a large minority in terms of members.

I think the Tory split will be between hard and soft Brexiteers, not between Leavers and Remainers.

I find that even less likely.

And on that note I am off to City airport!

foxinsoxuk

PlatoSaid said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

I followed some of the Ft Lauderdale shooting earlier - shooter seems to be messed up Hispanic ex-soldier who's hung out on Islamic forums for years.

Of course! I alll makes sense now.......

The sense of disappointment among some that the Fort Lauderdale killer is not a moslem and the Dortmund mob story was a lie is palpable.

Indeed it does seem as if the Fort Lauderdale attack shows the poor pastoral care of US military, and of psychiatric care of veterans in a bad light rather than anything to do with Islamist plots.

Not a theme that the Trumpster are so keen on, I suspect.

Implying Trumpsters are keen on Islamic plots? I see far more comments like these than I do about people implying they were somehow disappointed event X wasn't an Islamic terrorist attack.

I read that the guy walked into an FBI office and said ISIS were trying to make him their soldier or somesuch. Failure all round on this one.

Wasn't it that the FBI were controlling his mind and forcing him to watch IS videos?

He was taken from the FBI office to the Alaskan police and then to a psychiatric facility. It sounds a fairly classic schizophrenic delusion of reference. US psychiatric services for the uninsured are astonishingly poor, with lots of mentally ill homeless. It is not much better here admittedly.

rottenborough

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

Methinks uncivil war within the Tory party is about to break out again. Brexit has shifted the tectonic plates and is going to reform all parties.

Unlikely. I tell you this as a party member and as a voter. Almost all of the party is reconciled to leaving whatever they voted for. Look on here as an example, it isn't the Tory remainers who are bitching about it on a daily basis. Almost all of them now believe we must leave the EU. Don't forget before the referendum it was the Tory supporters on here who were split down the middle, now there is a sense of unity in leaving, even if some are less enthusiastic than others. A vote to remain would have been cause for the party to split or a caused a new civil war, but not leave.

The party has been sceptical of the EU for as long as I can remember, leaving is the natural position of most members and voters. Even though some decided that remain was worth it for short term economic gain, two thirds of the party members lined up against the leadership at the referendum and the other third, well from what I could see, they didn't have their hearts in the campaign. I was invited to a remain campaign event in the heart of remainer West London and it was like walking into a funeral. The Tories there that I knew were extremely downbeat. In contrast the leave campaign had boundless energy, even when we were getting 60/40 returns against us, everyone kept going. The Tories in that group were especially motivated as well.

Anyway, take it from those of us in the party, the idea of a split post-leave is one for the birds. The likes of TSE are not anywhere near a majority of members or even voters. The Cameroons are barely a large minority in terms of members.

According to Newstatesman, when Osborne was sacked May told him to go out and learn about the real Tory party in the country.

philiph

SouthamObserver said:

philiph said:

SouthamObserver said:

philiph said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

The local newspaper plus the police plus the Justice Minister plus the right-wing tabloid Bild-Zeitung on one side, Breitbart on the other. Tough choice?

Rotherham social services, plus Council members, plus SY Police on one side, Nick Griffin and the BNP on the other. Tough choice?

It was not unreasonable to ignore unsubstantiated claims made by white supremacists with a long track record of lying. The disgrace was to ignore and/or underplay the Times investigation and the testimony of victims and whistleblowers.

It turned out to be unreasonable.

If you put all those with long track records of lying on ignore, we will be short of action on the words of politicians, police and man utd supporters to name a few.

It turned out to be wrong, not unreasonable. In a world of finite resources it's hard to justify following up on claims made by avowed white supremacists and holocaust deniers. It was wrong, though, not to follow up on what was said by far more credible sources.

OK

You only follow up on things put forward by people who share your views.

While I don't endorse BNP etc, I think the logic of your statement leads to a nasty dictatorial intolerant outcome.

No, you follow up on stories from credible sources and you make a judgement on what is credible or not. White supremacists with long track records of spreading lies on issues such as holocaust denial are inevitably going to struggle to be taken seriously. What was outrageous was how the story was downplayed when far more credible sources emerged.

Oh, I get it.

You follow up on accusations of child abuse from 'Nick'

That went well.

You are putting a filter on that has a political element where it does not belong.

I'm off. Moving house on Monday, stuff to do.

JosiasJessop

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, we're in a holding pattern until we find out what Brexit means Brexit means.

Methinks uncivil war within the Tory party is about to break out again. Brexit has shifted the tectonic plates and is going to reform all parties.

Unlikely. I tell you this as a party member and as a voter. Almost all of the party is reconciled to leaving whatever they voted for. Look on here as an example, it isn't the Tory remainers who are bitching about it on a daily basis. Almost all of them now believe we must leave the EU. Don't forget before the referendum it was the Tory supporters on here who were split down the middle, now there is a sense of unity in leaving, even if some are less enthusiastic than others. A vote to remain would have been cause for the party to split or a caused a new civil war, but not leave.

The party has been sceptical of the EU for as long as I can remember, leaving is the natural position of most members and voters. Even though some decided that remain was worth it for short term economic gain, two thirds of the party members lined up against the leadership at the referendum and the other third, well from what I could see, they didn't have their hearts in the campaign. I was invited to a remain campaign event in the heart of remainer West London and it was like walking into a funeral. The Tories there that I knew were extremely downbeat. In contrast the leave campaign had boundless energy, even when we were getting 60/40 returns against us, everyone kept going. The Tories in that group were especially motivated as well.

Anyway, take it from those of us in the party, the idea of a split post-leave is one for the birds. The likes of TSE are not anywhere near a majority of members or even voters. The Cameroons are barely a large minority in terms of members.

According to Newstatesman, when Osborne was sacked May told him to go out and learn about the real Tory party in the country.

I'm sure a Home Counties MP should be telling a northern MP about such things ...

MikeSmithson

@MikeK is not banned

isam

RobD said:

PlatoSaid said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

I followed some of the Ft Lauderdale shooting earlier - shooter seems to be messed up Hispanic ex-soldier who's hung out on Islamic forums for years.

Of course! I alll makes sense now.......

The sense of disappointment among some that the Fort Lauderdale killer is not a moslem and the Dortmund mob story was a lie is palpable.

Indeed it does seem as if the Fort Lauderdale attack shows the poor pastoral care of US military, and of psychiatric care of veterans in a bad light rather than anything to do with Islamist plots.

Not a theme that the Trumpster are so keen on, I suspect.

Implying Trumpsters are keen on Islamic plots? I see far more comments like these than I do about people implying they were somehow disappointed event X wasn't an Islamic terrorist attack.

I read that the guy walked into an FBI office and said ISIS were trying to make him their soldier or somesuch. Failure all round on this one.

You do have to wonder how many incidents there are like this that don't lead to the kind of shooting we saw yesterday. It's a tricky situation, I guess there is only so much they can do with finite resources. I think it more points to the ridiculous gun laws in the US. Who really needs to fly with a gun, even if it is in a checked bag.

The picture of him on twitter that a lot of people are sharing has him supposedly doing the ISIS hand gesture, although to me it looks like he's doing it wrong/not doing it.

SouthamObserver

philiph said:

SouthamObserver said:

philiph said:

SouthamObserver said:

philiph said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, assuming the German police are telling the truth.

The spate of instant psychiatric diagnoses whilst tasering men trying to behead other people last year doesn't fill one with confidence in the authorities to be quite as honest as they should be about such matters.

The local newspaper plus the police plus the Justice Minister plus the right-wing tabloid Bild-Zeitung on one side, Breitbart on the other. Tough choice?

Rotherham social services, plus Council members, plus SY Police on one side, Nick Griffin and the BNP on the other. Tough choice?

It was not unreasonable to ignore unsubstantiated claims made by white supremacists with a long track record of lying. The disgrace was to ignore and/or underplay the Times investigation and the testimony of victims and whistleblowers.

It turned out to be unreasonable.

If you put all those with long track records of lying on ignore, we will be short of action on the words of politicians, police and man utd supporters to name a few.

It turned out to be wrong, not unreasonable. In a world of finite resources it's hard to justify following up on claims made by avowed white supremacists and holocaust deniers. It was wrong, though, not to follow up on what was said by far more credible sources.

OK

You only follow up on things put forward by people who share your views.

While I don't endorse BNP etc, I think the logic of your statement leads to a nasty dictatorial intolerant outcome.

No, you follow up on stories from credible sources and you make a judgement on what is credible or not. White supremacists with long track records of spreading lies on issues such as holocaust denial are inevitably going to struggle to be taken seriously. What was outrageous was how the story was downplayed when far more credible sources emerged.

Oh, I get it.

You follow up on accusations of child abuse from 'Nick'

That went well.

You are putting a filter on that has a political element where it does not belong.

I'm off. Moving house on Monday, stuff to do.

Nope - I just believe it is reasonable to treat racially-charged claims made by avowed white supremacists and holicaust deniers with a degree of scepticism. You clearly don't. We'll just have to agree to disagree.

Roger

MikeSmithson said:

Farron's people handling skills didn't undermine the huge effort in Richmond Park where a party on single figures in the polls overturned a 23k majority.

Having been a Farron-sceptic I've now switched. Just go ask those CON MPs who'll be defending SW seats against the LDs. They are the one who are most opposed to an early general election.

After the year of the bastards-Farage Trump Gove Johnson Corbyn McDonnell-the zeitgeist is due a shift to the nice guys and Farron is certainly one of those.

isam

MikeSmithson said:

@MikeK is not banned

His status is 'Roles Applicant' which means he is unable to post. Moses TCPoliticalBetting and GeoffM are in the same boat. People that can post are 'Roles Member'.

Happened to me many times...

Black_Rook

The guys over at Number Cruncher Politics were blogging about the same question just the other day, and came to the following conclusion:

"What I suspect is actually going on is that it’s partly a reversion from the dip the Tories had between the budget and the referendum and partly down to continued opposition weakness. So really, the question contains a questionable assumption – in reality what we’ve been seeing is probably more than just a new leader honeymoon."

This seems reasonable. Perhaps we ought to concede, at this point, that Corbyn is not the only problem here, and that Labour's plight is part of the general malaise in social democracy seen on the continent? Namely, (a) the centre-left has run out of answers; (b) the populist right is taking chunks out of the working class vote, as the centre-left membership, leadership and agenda becomes increasingly biased towards wealthy left-liberals; and (c) as a consequence, its vote share may be PERMANENTLY depressed. The Tories' floor of support has, in fact, always been higher than Labour's - they've won over 30% of the vote in every single GE since 1834 - and Labour has found itself in serious decline since the second Blair landslide in 2001. 2005 was only won because the Labour vote distribution was still, at that time, highly efficient, and in 2010 and 2015 it struggled to make 30% of the vote, failing on the first occasion.

As has been said by many others before me in recent months, Labour's fundamental problem now is that it is an unstable, and probably inviable, coalition between three factions: the London radical left, Northern traditional Labour, and Scottish Labour (which appears already to be doomed.) The first two factions - and, more pertinently, their target voters - could probably agree on a common economic platform with enough negotiation, but are diametrically opposed on a whole range of other issues - notably education, social security, criminal justice, defence, immigration and asylum policy, and Europe. So long as the agenda of Labour is dominated by its Southern arm, the Northern & Welsh arm remains acutely vulnerable to attack from the Conservatives and Ukip - but the Northern & Welsh arm appears to lack the votes to seize the initiative back, and even if it could the Southern arm would bridle at many of its policy positions, and risk leaking some of its own support to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and the Extreme Left. It's an impossible situation.

As it stands, Northern Labour has only two choices: sit motionless and pray for a miracle as it is slowly strangled by the Right, or file for divorce from London and re-position itself to suit the needs and opinions of its own base. Either way, given the Tories' high floor of support, efficiency in contesting marginal seats, and the possibilities inherent in the Scottish situation, I think it quite likely that they're are going to be at least the largest single party in the Commons for the foreseeable future.

RobD

Roger said:

MikeSmithson said:

Farron's people handling skills didn't undermine the huge effort in Richmond Park where a party on single figures in the polls overturned a 23k majority.

Having been a Farron-sceptic I've now switched. Just go ask those CON MPs who'll be defending SW seats against the LDs. They are the one who are most opposed to an early general election.

After the year of the bastards-Farage Trump Gove Johnson Corbyn McDonnell-the zeitgeist is due a shift to the nice guys and Farron is certainly one of those.

Corbyn? A bastard? I thought he was an alright sort of chap.

CD13

Forgetting Brexit and Remain and all the complaints about the other side being thick, I'd like to know people's views on basic democracy.

The EU is a political concept - a potentially noble one. We join together in unity to stop internecine squabbling and stand stronger together. But many of the trade functions could be done without a formal union. Non-tariff trade, standardisation certainly. Scientific research too. The big difference is control of borders to allow free movement and that is where it becomes overtly political.

From the view of a Lincolnshire peasant with a low-skill base, what are the advantages of the EU's determination to open borders? He can head to Rumania or Poland to pick potatoes and compete with the locals for a job paying pennies. The disadvantages? Thousands of Poles, Lithuanians and Rumanians can compete for a job with the UK locals for what seems a fortune to the newcomers. Of course, the peasant will vote Leave - it's in his own interests

From the view of a highly paid London lawyer with a holiday home in Hungary (just an example), he has even more employment options in Europe. He has access to cheap labour in the UK - plumbers, hairdressers etc. Of course, he will vote Remain - it's in his own interests.

Yet only one section are criticised for being stupid and voting in their own interests.

Isn't it a fact of life that in a democracy, that is what most people do?

Racism and Sovereignty merely muddy the waters.

malcolmg

asjohnstone said:

Who does David consider to be the "four main parties" ? As the article is about parliament, I'd presume he means, Tories, Labour, SNP and presumably the Lib Dems.

LOL, more likely UKIP than SNP