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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve backed Diane Abbott to be next Labour leader
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve backed Diane Abbott to be next Labour leader
Two of my underlying assumptions about politics in this country are 1) Jeremy Corbyn will be Labour leader at the next general election and 2) Were a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour party to lose a general election (especially if it is a comprehensive defeat) Labour will return to political sanity and appoint someone more centrist and electable, but what if those assumptions are wrong, cui bono?
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No way will Abbot be Labour leader. There is no mechanism for a handover to a Corbynite successor, and even if there were such a contest would only take place after Labour had been routed in an election.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/817782121993502720/photo/1
'"The comments were made by a junior embassy employee who is not an Israeli diplomat, and who will be ending his term of employment with the embassy shortly," it said.'
Seems as though the guilty party has already been expelled. The FCO also say they consider the matter closed, which makes me think there won't be further public fallout. What happens behind the scenes, who knows!
There is actually a plausible mechanism for getting rid of Corbyn early in return for a left-wing successor, which is that the necessary number of MPs agree that they'll nominate Candidate X if Corbyn goes. But you need both sides to agree to the deal, so it only really works if enough PLP members think that Candidate X will be an improvement. It's obvious how that works with Clive Lewis, but it's hard to see with Diane Abbott.
At least after the 2020 election, the nomination threshold will be considerably fewer MPs than it is now!
What is worrying is that too often British politicians seem naive and even pollyanna-ish (is that the right adjective?) about the big bad world, and may be too happy to make deals that other countries would not countenance: giving away rebates, selling companies, handing over national security. And probably in negotiating post-Brexit free trade agreements.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/12/31/mome-d31.html?view=article_mobile
Mr. Eagles, it's a demented and ridiculous suggestion. Upon checking recent Labour party leadership results, that does not necessarily mean it's incredible.
Of course we knew that, but funny to see it confirmed by Mossad.
Having said that I did predict that when Israel sent the head of their propaganda ministry Mark Regev-known throughout the world for his skill at the dark arts- as their 'Ambassador' the unpleasant effects would soon be felt.
That he's working his way through the British political establishment is no surprise to anyone who takes an interest in these things. Look at the success he's had so far destabilizing the Labour Party.
Here he is in a previous life. (Vomit over computer alert)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_-76H-YRjs
Abbott is probably the only person who would perform worse than Corbyn in the polls.
The FCO doesn't matter too much for May, and probably correctly as we are entering the era of protectionism and isolationism.
The future is not trade deals but trade barriers.
Of course, she attended the wrong university, but, hey, no one's perfect...
If Trump is true to his word (a big assumption), do we dare go against the foreign policy of our key ally? An ally whose favour we are now desperate to curry in these post-Brexit times?
We could continue hewing closer to the European view. But Europe itself is shaky. Italy and others are soft on Russia, and Germany itself has a strong pro-Russia party - currently at bay, but biding its time.
My tip for the top is Jon Ashworth. He is really a Brownite, yet one of the few willing to serve in Corbyns cabinet. Lots of trade union backing and would not be toxic to either faction. A real party apparatchik, competent at organising. He is the first shadow cabinet person to hit the campaign trail in Copeland. He is rather charisma free, and not yet an accomplished media performer. He has that sort of bland quality of a compromise candidate that enthuses few, but doesn't have many enemies either, like Hammond, Major or Farron. I have observed him a bit as he is MP for Leicester South, speaking below from leafy Leicester South
Jezza retweeted him here:
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/817715503837966336
German foreign policy hasnt got a particularly good record n reading how to handle us brits
Starmer is touted but he is up himself.. that's why we had all these televised announcements when he was the DPP.. To my mind it was all about promoting Keir Starmer. Why he was knighted is beyond me.
I think her dislike of Soubry and Clarke is fairly well documented! and the Sleaford nonentity proven.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LxRqMJHG56A
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dWk29MhTb-g
There will surely only be one pro Corbyn candidate in the next election. Not convinced Abbott would be their first choice...
(PS Under the circumstances I don't think she did that badly)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/07/uk-at-risk-of-brexit-trade-catastrophe
gambleaware.co.uk - Gambling Awareness
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/818037477445341184
On topic, I've joked in the past about Diane Abbott being one of the likely Corbyn successors. But in truth, she's a serious contender. So long as the radical pseudo-Marxist majority amongst the membership continues, then the only barrier to another hard Left candidate getting onto the ballot whenever Corbyn eventually goes is the 15% of PLP nomination threshold. This could easily be negated either by the Corbynites gaining control of the NEC and changing the rules; by Labour splitting and many of the moderate MPs deserting to form a new party; or by Labour being reduced to a rump in Parliament, whilst the balance of the PLP simultaneously moves further Left due to deselections.
She has the correct politics for the party as currently constituted, and she's not white. If Labour can finally get over its problem with female leadership candidates, then why not?
Can you imagine just one bet brought the odds down 100/1 to 66/1.