Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The consequences of what has already happened and the conseque
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The consequences of what has already happened and the consequences of what is yet to come
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Remainers keep throwing around the 44% of our exports are to the eu figure and it sounds big and scary as the implication they make is it will drop to zero.
However if memory serves don't exports as a total make up somewhere like a total of between 10 and 15 percent of our total trade with the rest being domestic?
If so that means even if it drops to zero which is highly questionable what we are really talking about is an effect on between 4.4% and 6.6% of our total trade?
Doesn't sound quite so scary to me
Terrorists will find it more difficult to travel from one end of a continent to another unchecked I reckon, and governments will be more careful who they let in.
We seem to be able to co-operate security wise with non EU states and EU states.
I see also the Belgian security services have decided to show us yet again how rather pants they are.
Also worth pointing out tax alleviation schemes have been going on INSIDE the EU.
This is just project fear part 36
If only bilateral and multilateral deals had been possible before the EU.
are you new to politics ? :-)
My objection to it is that while people don't say it they imply it with phrases such as "lose access to the single market" you or I know that just means tariffs or other barriers. The average man in the street sees it as no ability to sell in.
No by the way its not just remainers using this sort of tactic, leavers do it to. As does every damn pressure group.
Myself, I'm a bit more optimistic. But then, I've been heavily influenced by a remark from an ex-Army colleague: "Any day's a good day if you're still alive at the end of it". So my expectations of life are probably lower than yours.
Indeed, I'm more interested in when & where the next significant development of human evolution is going to show itself, and what it will be. Rather too long-term for any betting opportunities, though.
Good afternoon, everyone.
I think that our relationship with the EU will be like that. On issues like security we will work together even if we disagree about something else.
Would we have accepted any other countries' officials saying something like that ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-3717190/An-escape-hatch-burdened-taste-250m-world-s-expensive-villa.html
Malkovich, malkovich,
350 million, 350 million, 350 million.
Pause.
350 million
None of us have time to check out everything so most just ignore it and vote with their feelings. Start treating people like adults and giving them real data to process and maybe more people will make rational decisions. Can't see any side in any debate doing it sadly but if you want voters to start behaving intelligently stop trying to scare them into doing what you want
Large corporations are already more influential under the EU. There is a reason the vast majority were in favour of our continued membership, it wasn't any concern for the general public. Of course the increasingly rampant tax avoidance we have seen hasn't at all been ENABLED by the EU, no siree...
And for that matter one of the worst offenders Switzerland is on the EU's doorstep and yet it does nothing.
This notion that somehow the EU is some kind of protection from multinationals scamming the public is a fantasy.
We would be better off as a society and make better decisions if we all got told the actual facts about anything. All scare tactics do is make people believe them up until they find out the truth behind any one of them then they get cynical about all of them.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/818079364315226113
Your wish has been answered.
Or the £3bn+ agricultural subsidies we can axe, in a corn laws round II.
We are basically living within our means at that point.
In summary: the ethical personn must tell the truth. But making people listen is extraordinarily difficult.
what's in it for Labour ?
http://www.quirksmode.org/politics/polls.html#peilnl
They have missed out the PVV's actual 35% and shifted down to the next figure.
Not sure what we do about it as it is far too embedded now
" spinning health care statistics will increase your chance of an early death"
PVV 35%
VVD 23%
CDA 15%
D66 14%
GL 14%
SO 11%
50Plus 11%
PvdA 10%
http://www.quirksmode.org/politics/polls.html#peilnl
It is "unfair" to ask what Labour's position is on immigration controls
In my view the first Eurosceptic party to win outright in the EU will be 5* in Italy in May 2018
Leader: Hiding behind glass doors, refusing to answer a question about whether a general election is wanted, deputy leader: saying that expecting a political party to have a policy position is unfair.
That all points to a short campaign disaster for the Labour Party.
So they are the losers.
https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/818111880174694401
"Powerful stuff. Someone speaking their unfiltered, strongest emotions with an authenticity that cuts through the crap. "
You clearly didn't bother to read it. It's a Katie Hopkins/Plato racist rant. It had nothing to do with any authentic person speaking their mind. It was a dream sequence by Katie Hopkins
Even if it's only for your own sanity find some positives about where we find ourselves. Many may not like it but endless gloom seems no recipe for the future.
@Plato, @Pagan
I agree that the doubling of a low rate seems dramatic but is meaningless, and almost certainly the margin of error actually means you can't conclude any such thing at all. However if your cancer risk is say 0.1% per year and it rises to 0.5% per year because you eat albatrosses then that's big - and how do you convey a quintupling without just saying it?
I'd also note that Peil has consistently shown slightly strange results: it has more PVV voters agreeing with the statement "The Euro is good for the Netherlands" than disagreeing with it (which would presumably annoy Geert no end); and it has consistently has a much higher PVV share than - for example - Ipsos.
All that being said, the PVV is the red hot favourite to "win" the Dutch General elections. But with less than a quarter of the vote (and possibly less than 20%), it's hard to see what coalition they could put together.
But not vice versa.
If the risk of an embolic stroke is 1 in 100 per year whilst in atrial fibrillation, and by taking Warfarin changes this to 1 in 200; the risk of stroke could be described as halved, but as discussed this may be misleading depending on the baseline risk. The NNT per year would be 200, as 200 people would have to be treated to prevent one stroke.
Of course the prescribing doctor can still sell the treatment several ways:
1) Taking warfarin halves the risk of stroke.
2) If you take warfarin for 10 years then the chance is only 1/20 that it has done you any good.
3) You would have to take the drug for 200 years to prevent a stroke
All the same data, just presented differently. Incidentally, the above is roughly accurate, though other risk factors come into it and need treating.
The way this sort of stuff is presented can matter. I had to decide in real life whether it is worth doing a really unpleasant 6 months of chemotherapy to raise one's survival chances from 65% to 68%. The odds are against one being one of the 3%, but then again they are higher than the odds of throwing double sixes with a pair of dice (2.8%), and throwing double sixes is not an everyday event, but not something so rare and unusual that it gets reported on the news and goes viral on the internet.
Although I broadly agree with Mr Meeks I think what is missing is an assessment of the counterfactual
Were remain and hilary to have won and the obama doctrine continued we would have eventually been drawn in to conflict with russia in a proxy war either in eastern europe or the middle east. ultimately western governments are too weak,beholden to capitalism, and popular opinion was solid against more wars. Maybe europeans are too soft and cowardly having grown fat on 70 years of US sponsored peace and prosperity. As others pointed out these trends have been apparent for a long time so brexit doesnt really change any of this.
More broadly what we are seeing is perhaps the decline of the liberal democratic order.
No enormo-haddock are currently stationed in Pittsburgh.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38544859
http://ca.reuters.com/article/idCAKBN14S0HN?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true