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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron at 6/1 looks the value bet for next French president
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron at 6/1 looks the value bet for next French president
By far the biggest political betting market at the moment is on the French presidential election the first round of which takes place in April. On the Betfair exchange alone £2m has been matched which suggests that this will be a huge market when we get to polling day.
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You don't get more centrist than Macron, and France needs shock Thatcherite treatment. If Fillon fumbles it I don't think France will ever be fixed.
Again AlphaGo isn't "AI"...
Monday it was 65F, last night it got down to 13F and next weekend will be 70F.
2 days of sun, even though the temp never got above freezing, means the small snowfall is gone.
No wonder we all get sniffles all winter.
http://www.downtownparis.ca/
Under the plan it will also move the production of a Ram pickup truck from Mexico to the US.
The location of car production has become a sensitive issue, as President-elect Donald Trump is critical of firms that have moved production to Mexico and has threatened to impose tariffs.
However, BMW has told the BBC it would go ahead with a new plant in Mexico.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38550492
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-38550889
Good night, everyone.
When I took the doggies out this morning it was 17F, but with about 40mph winds gusting higher (I was knocked back mid stride). Felt brass monkeys.
But at 6s?
That's a really hard call. He has to pass Le Pen or Fillon and make it to the last two.
How might that happen? There are three scenarios of varying probability.
Now, almost all of these are predicated on Bayrou stepping down, which is probably a 50-60% probability, but by no means a certainty.
1. Fillon blows up
Quite possible, of course. But some terrible secret might come out about Fillon: perhaps he was involved in one of DSK's parties, or worse. Likely? Not really, but possible, I guess. (5% chance).
2. Le Pen blows up
Much less likely than Fillon blowing up. If 'pussy grabbing' didn't, dent Trump, I can't see what would affect Le Pen. (1% chance).
3. The Left and Centre Left votes tactically for Macron
Now, this is the possible one. There are a lot of Left Wing candidates. Faced with the possibility of Fillon vs Le Pen, might a few of them choose to put their First Round 'x' next to Macron? I suspect it's possible (although, of course, by no means certain). And it might be Valls that benefits from tactical voting. Still: I reckon there's a 20% chance that enough Green, Left Front, and Socialist voters decide to make Macron their call, pushing him past Le Pen.
One sixth chance?
That seems like a tough one, especially given Macron can't be better than 50/50 (and probably worse) against Fillon.
I'd make him an 8-12% chance.
just checked. Is now 5/1.
Valls, if he gets the nod, will hold enough of the left - and Fillon enough of the centre-right, to depress Macron's score in the first round IMO.
There is a behavioural issue in the first round for French socialists, which does give a certain unpredictability.However I have spoken to a few (data is not the plural of anecdote, etc.) and they still see this as Fillon v Le Pen. And they are in no doubt about that.
My book right now on this is
-498 Le Pen
+208 Macron
+118 Fillon
-222 Other
Which has a value of -£26 - due mainly to a £75 bet on Juppe.
The key thing is that Macron does not have to win the first round, if he comes second then Mike's tip is in great shape
@Pauly criticism of the tip is a complete nonsense.
I think it's a combination of (1) and (3) - Fillon looks beatable, the left take him on.
BUT there is little evidence of this sort of first round tactical voting at regional or national level in France.
Absolutely astonished by that revelation.
I'm -600 the field give or take.
I've tweaked the numbers as the others were off the top of my head.
She is 4.5 and I woudn't bet on her at those odds even if she were guaranteed a place in the second round.
They split into four groups: those that are sick to the teeth of politicians generally; those who think France needs a Mrs Thatcher; those who think France needs a Tony Blair; and those who are just scared of Marine Le Pen.
The first and second groups are the largest. The fourth group might well vote for Macron to 'stop Le Pen'.
My 8-12% chance for Macron sounds right. He can do it. He might do it.
But Fillon is far and away the favourite here, and Le Pan is far, far too short.
I hope we don't have a repeat.
In a US state election where the polls were 65:35 in favour of one candidate. And the 35% candidate had a history of underperforming her poll scores, would anyone here bet at 4 or 5 to 1? No, because it would be incredibly stupid.
1) Mrs May has confirmed we're leaving the single market
2) Mrs May gave Nissan assurances that Brexit wouldn't impact them
Am I the only one struggling to reconcile those two positions?
Is it TSE, having come to his senses, trying to get his money back!
May sounded like a Hard Brexiteer today.
Tis peculier how so many eurosceptics have spent the last 25 asking for opt outs and now want opt ins.
The issue is that Fort Dearborn used to employ 110,000 people, mostly skilled blue collar workers. Now it employs 4,000, and by the end of the decade it'll be more like 2,000.
Irish EU Commissioner urges Ireland to keep its political distance from the UK.
Once the prime minister, Theresa May, triggered article 50, “a process would commence that will move the centre of power and influence on Brexit away from London and firmly plant it in Brussels,”
I can well understand why he felt unable to continue with this ..... I'm just grateful that he made the effort for so long during what was probably PB.com's finest and most successful period to date.
Compare and contrast, say, with yesterday's somewhat ludicrous thread in my view, setting forth the possibility, if it can be described as such, of Ms. Diane Abbott becoming the next leader of the Labour Party.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4099818/Where-Lovely-singer-songwriter-Peter-Sarstedt-dies-aged-75-six-year-battle-against-rare-brain-disease.html
If that is indeed the thinking in the EU, then the prospect of an amicable split is remote indeed. What Hogan is describing is not exit negotiations, but diktat.
Hopefully.
With the EU27 there are a lot more balls in the air, but one can only hope people will be grown up about it.
On services it's of course far trickier. NTBs form a far greater element than in goods and we might find ourselves outside the bodies that determine what those NTBs will be.
The black swan is a cave by the EU27 on free movement.
If by ceding that (calling it something suitably fudge-y) then we will get a least bad Brexit because I think May knows free movement has to be the headline. Few will then go on to read the detail.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/france-britain-uk-world-s-fifth-largest-economy-brexit-eu-referendum-a7123761.html
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/26/mercedes-benz-robots-people-assembly-lines
The reasoning of Merc and Toyota shows the problems inherent in the current generation of robots, and why the doom and gloom might be overplayed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11468615/French-tax-on-Britons-second-homes-illegal.html
But the other side of that coin is they don't want to be so vexatious such that no one wants to join the company in the first place.
Besides, the EU will be far more concerned about countries leaving than joining, especially if they are the large countries.
The EU is after all nothing if not an ideal. It is right, everyone else is wrong. If we choose to leave more fool us. It ill behoves such a starry organisation to behave like a petulant child. Or like Goldman Sachs.
I am not convinced that the converse will happen in Le Pen v. anyone on the left. Some conservatives will see Le Pen as closer to their ideal than a hard left or even centre left candidate.
Also they have all had five years of Gordon Brown. Whilst Hollande has made a better fist of the Presidency than his predecessor that is not the way the typical passenger on Le Tramway in Besancon sees it.
So if Fillon is in the second round he will win. Certainly the left need a candidate who reaches out and M Macron might be that candidate. But, he will have a much tougher second round that Fillon would have had. Le Pen needs Fillon to fail to make the second round - then it will be very close.
For that reason, they will be looking at what needs to be done to dissuade others from leaving, and making it difficult for the UK to leave is an obvious one.
A better one would be for them to look at *why* we voted to leave and try addressing the issues, which are also issues in some other players. Sadly, that's not the road they've gone down.
Given that, expect many in the EU to play a very tough game with us. Some leavers are looking at things from narrow economic viewpoints. Many in the EU wil be willing to take a minor hit on their own economies if it means punishing what they will see as a deserter.
From the EU perspective the exit negotiations are about the division of assets and liabilities, not about a post Brexit deal.
How well is London's new mayor handling it?
Of course, you could just have been making a crude joke.
It could have been stopped at the Cameron renegotiation stage, but that became a farce instead. With a relatively narrow win for Leave, there still remained a faint chance that the EU would give way on some issues. With good will on both sides, and genuine relaxation of some rules, the EU could have shown it was keen to compromise.
That time has gone. The EU is keener to come over as frightened and vindictive, worrying more about an implosion than negotiation. We're well rid of them.
Only the Liberals remain as a bastion of irresponsibility, hoping to claw back a few votes from the stupid and the lickspittles. "Please kick me in the balls again, I'm a whipped cur."
Article 50 will go ahead. The rest of the world awaits while the EU looks inwards.
Allez, Macron!
Mr. Meeks, nicely teed up is generous. She's making obvious and transparent pronouncements to keep banging on about independence.
https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/818364783019835392