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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After 16 months of Corbyn Mark 1 get ready folk for this week’

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After 16 months of Corbyn Mark 1 get ready folk for this week’s launch of Corbyn Mark 2

Above is part of a Newnight discussion that I was part of last week which, amongst other things, examined the position of Jeremy Corbyn and whether there was any chance of recovery. I was pretty blunt in the programme though the views expressed were ones which have repeatedly been made before. It was interesting in the programme that the JC-backer in the discussion responded to my points by attacking the media.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Should be fun.
  • Clear MSM bias by Mike not covering the ICM poll that shows Labour up in the polls.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Will JC rise again?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, does PB count as MSM?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    As a strategy it sounds absolutely bonkers frankly.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Just before Christmas I met up with a few old work colleagues for a drink, and one of them, a relatively famous gambler, is a big Corbyn fan, so much so that he is the chief fund raiser (I think) for his local PLP.

    He seems to think there is a chance of a Trump/Brexit style undercurrent of Corbynism popularity that hasn't shown its face yet, although I think the other two phenomena were different in that they appealed en masse to everyday folk.

    Most people I know think Corbyn is a nutter, so much so that the only time one of my mates has ever talked politics was to say "who on earth is that c*nt in charge of Labour?"
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    "build an entirely new coalition of support. - Votes for 16-17 year olds, jailbirds and lunatics?

  • Mr. Eagles, does PB count as MSM?

    According to the Corbynites who regularly abuse Mike on twitter, yes it it does.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, sorry to hear about that.

    I think it's a stretch, to be honest. PB's neither a broadcaster nor a newspaper.
  • Precisely how many meetings containing 200 Labour voters will he need to address to make up the ground of, what is it, several million votes.

    But, you know what, it can't be worse than what he's been doing already and he's, frankly, terrible at handling the press so why not just go all-in mardy bum on them. Why not.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Philip Cowley ‏@philipjcowley 5h5 hours ago
    Let X be X only works if the problem isn't X.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    isam said:

    Just before Christmas I met up with a few old work colleagues for a drink, and one of them, a relatively famous gambler, is a big Corbyn fan, so much so that he is the chief fund raiser (I think) for his local PLP.

    He seems to think there is a chance of a Trump/Brexit style undercurrent of Corbynism popularity that hasn't shown its face yet, although I think the other two phenomena were different in that they appealed en masse to everyday folk.

    Most people I know think Corbyn is a nutter, so much so that the only time one of my mates has ever talked politics was to say "who on earth is that c*nt in charge of Labour?"

    I also saw a friend at Christmas who a year earlier was really positive about Labour's chances with Corbyn. He too cited Brexit and Trump as examples of people wanting change. This year, however, he now believes that Labour is heading for defeat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    At least the parliamentary Labour Party seem to be being a bit quieter regarding Corbyn or just going (Like Reed I suppose)

    I think all the 35 who nominated but then didn't support him in particular deserve to see Labour take the utter thrashing it will inevitably get in 2020, harsh lessons are seldom learnt easily.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    Just before Christmas I met up with a few old work colleagues for a drink, and one of them, a relatively famous gambler, is a big Corbyn fan, so much so that he is the chief fund raiser (I think) for his local PLP.

    He seems to think there is a chance of a Trump/Brexit style undercurrent of Corbynism popularity that hasn't shown its face yet, although I think the other two phenomena were different in that they appealed en masse to everyday folk.

    Most people I know think Corbyn is a nutter, so much so that the only time one of my mates has ever talked politics was to say "who on earth is that c*nt in charge of Labour?"

    I also saw a friend at Christmas who a year earlier was really positive about Labour's chances with Corbyn. He too cited Brexit and Trump as examples of people wanting change. This year, however, he now believes that Labour is heading for defeat.
    One of my acid tests in political perceptions is how far leaders reach beyond the expected votes. When a WWC friend and my striving North Welsh cousins said they were voting Cameron I knew he had a chance of a majority. I've not heard a single unexpected Corbyn supporter. Snowflakes, right-oners and 'you can't touch me I'm part of the Union' are the only people I've heard gush about him...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    isam said:
    LOL, so his pooh-pooing of the media lasts less than a day, before he cuddles up next to Piers Moron.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Mortimer said:

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    Just before Christmas I met up with a few old work colleagues for a drink, and one of them, a relatively famous gambler, is a big Corbyn fan, so much so that he is the chief fund raiser (I think) for his local PLP.

    He seems to think there is a chance of a Trump/Brexit style undercurrent of Corbynism popularity that hasn't shown its face yet, although I think the other two phenomena were different in that they appealed en masse to everyday folk.

    Most people I know think Corbyn is a nutter, so much so that the only time one of my mates has ever talked politics was to say "who on earth is that c*nt in charge of Labour?"

    I also saw a friend at Christmas who a year earlier was really positive about Labour's chances with Corbyn. He too cited Brexit and Trump as examples of people wanting change. This year, however, he now believes that Labour is heading for defeat.
    One of my acid tests in political perceptions is how far leaders reach beyond the expected votes. When a WWC friend and my striving North Welsh cousins said they were voting Cameron I knew he had a chance of a majority. I've not heard a single unexpected Corbyn supporter. Snowflakes, right-oners and 'you can't touch me I'm part of the Union' are the only people I've heard gush about him...
    I have a diverse circle of young (23-25) friends and have heard precisely none of them gush about Corbyn. Which is not to say none of them will end up voting Labour, but no moreso than did in 2015.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Pulpstar said:

    At least the parliamentary Labour Party seem to be being a bit quieter regarding Corbyn or just going (Like Reed I suppose)

    I think all the 35 who nominated but then didn't support him in particular deserve to see Labour take the utter thrashing it will inevitably get in 2020, harsh lessons are seldom learnt easily.

    I believe the quietness is a deliberate strategy. Avoid allowing the blame for appalling poll levels to be directed at MPs who are causing friction and blurting to the media all the time. This is Corbyn's gig now and he will stand or fall.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Pulpstar said:

    At least the parliamentary Labour Party seem to be being a bit quieter regarding Corbyn or just going (Like Reed I suppose)

    I think all the 35 who nominated but then didn't support him in particular deserve to see Labour take the utter thrashing it will inevitably get in 2020, harsh lessons are seldom learnt easily.

    I believe the quietness is a deliberate strategy. Avoid allowing the blame for appalling poll levels to be directed at MPs who are causing friction and blurting to the media all the time. This is Corbyn's gig now and he will stand or fall.
    Dan Hodges wrote just that yesterday

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4098450/DAN-HODGES-Labour-secret-weapon-kill-Corbyn-apathy.html
  • Bloody hell Martin mcIRA looks and sounds like Grim Reaper won't be long until he comes knocking.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Pulpstar said:

    At least the parliamentary Labour Party seem to be being a bit quieter regarding Corbyn or just going (Like Reed I suppose)

    I think all the 35 who nominated but then didn't support him in particular deserve to see Labour take the utter thrashing it will inevitably get in 2020, harsh lessons are seldom learnt easily.

    I believe the quietness is a deliberate strategy. Avoid allowing the blame for appalling poll levels to be directed at MPs who are causing friction and blurting to the media all the time. This is Corbyn's gig now and he will stand or fall.
    I still don't understand why the disgruntled majority don't leave and set up Labour Zero (or similar) - they be the opposition immediately and those in marginals might not lose their jobs in 2020...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited January 2017
    F1: apparently, Marchionne, big Ferrari boss (of the whole shindig) is going to retire early 2019. Could spell an end to him chasing away English engineers and annoying German drivers.

    Edited extra bit: as a general strategy, I mean. Assuming his successor doesn't pursue the same losing approach.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    At least the parliamentary Labour Party seem to be being a bit quieter regarding Corbyn or just going (Like Reed I suppose)

    I think all the 35 who nominated but then didn't support him in particular deserve to see Labour take the utter thrashing it will inevitably get in 2020, harsh lessons are seldom learnt easily.

    I believe the quietness is a deliberate strategy. Avoid allowing the blame for appalling poll levels to be directed at MPs who are causing friction and blurting to the media all the time. This is Corbyn's gig now and he will stand or fall.
    I still don't understand why the disgruntled majority don't leave and set up Labour Zero (or similar) - they be the opposition immediately and those in marginals might not lose their jobs in 2020...
    These are the same people who tried to get rid of Corbyn with...Angela Eagle and Owen Smith.

    Set up a political party? They couldn't set up a Gmail account.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Bloody hell Martin mcIRA looks and sounds like Grim Reaper won't be long until he comes knocking.

    Yes, quite shocked when I saw him

    he looks like my dad when he was first diagnosed with Parkinsons

    MMcG referred to his health in the interview, questionable if he would have stayed in office much longer imo
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Essexit said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    At least the parliamentary Labour Party seem to be being a bit quieter regarding Corbyn or just going (Like Reed I suppose)

    I think all the 35 who nominated but then didn't support him in particular deserve to see Labour take the utter thrashing it will inevitably get in 2020, harsh lessons are seldom learnt easily.

    I believe the quietness is a deliberate strategy. Avoid allowing the blame for appalling poll levels to be directed at MPs who are causing friction and blurting to the media all the time. This is Corbyn's gig now and he will stand or fall.
    I still don't understand why the disgruntled majority don't leave and set up Labour Zero (or similar) - they be the opposition immediately and those in marginals might not lose their jobs in 2020...
    These are the same people who tried to get rid of Corbyn with...Angela Eagle and Owen Smith.

    Set up a political party? They couldn't set up a Gmail account.
    Fair point...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited January 2017

    Clear MSM bias by Mike not covering the ICM poll that shows Labour up in the polls.

    Yes, how dare they miss Corbyn slashing the Tory lead to a mere 14%!
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/818486105486032896
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FPT : an amazing insight into the referendum tactics from Dominic Cummings.

    Long but doesn't pull any punches.

    https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On the subject of the possible election in Northern Ireland, a very sharp point from local pollsters Lucid Talk:

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/818521746374590464
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2017
    This heating scandal, I wonder whose side of the argument jahadi jez is on?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, if I had the unhappy responsibility of advising Labour's leadership as to how to campaign, I'd be looking at alternative routes to market too. That requires Jeremy Corbyn to up his game a lot, to put together sharp arguments (in 140 characters for Twitter or in visual imagery for Facebook) and just to become newsworthy for intended rather than unintended reasons.

    Since I don't think he's up to the job, I don't think it's going to work.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2017
    2.4% swing to the Tories since 2015.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited January 2017
    Wales slowly going away from Labour, I wonder what sort of coalition those Sennedd numbers might produce?
    Lab: 22
    Con: 14
    PC: 14
    UKIP: 8
    LD:2
    Total: 60, Majority: 31
  • Sandpit said:

    Wales slowly going away from Labour, I wonder what sort of coalition those Sennedd numbers might produce?
    Lab: 22
    Con: 14
    PC: 14
    UKIP: 8
    LD:2
    Total: 60, Majority: 31

    Would have to be Lab+PC that's the only viable coalition.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    chestnut said:

    2.4% swing to the Tories since 2015.

    It's going to be a terrrrible night for the Tories...

    All good for my 'Only London is Labour' provincial poster campaign!
  • justin124 said:
    They probably were mathematically (ie 0.49% or less).
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    edited January 2017

    Sandpit said:

    Wales slowly going away from Labour, I wonder what sort of coalition those Sennedd numbers might produce?
    Lab: 22
    Con: 14
    PC: 14
    UKIP: 8
    LD:2
    Total: 60, Majority: 31

    Would have to be Lab+PC that's the only viable coalition.
    [deleted]

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Wales slowly going away from Labour, I wonder what sort of coalition those Sennedd numbers might produce?
    Lab: 22
    Con: 14
    PC: 14
    UKIP: 8
    LD:2
    Total: 60, Majority: 31

    Would have to be Lab+PC that's the only viable coalition.
    Agreed. Unless PC wanted Labour out so badly they'd team up with Con and UKIP!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    TGOHF said:

    FPT : an amazing insight into the referendum tactics from Dominic Cummings.

    Long but doesn't pull any punches.

    https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/

    brilliant

    "Over and over again outside London people would rant about how they had not/barely recovered from this recession ‘while the politicians and bankers and businessmen in London all keep raking in the money and us mugs on PAYE are paying for the bailouts, now they’re saying we’ve just got to put up with the EU being crap or else we’ll be unemployed, I don’t buy it, they’ve been wrong about everything else…’ All those amazed at why so little attention was paid to ‘the experts’ did not, and still do not, appreciate that these ‘experts’ are seen by most people of all political views as having botched financial regulation, made a load of rubbish predictions, then forced everybody else outside London to pay for the mess while they got richer and dodged responsibility. They are right. This is exactly what happened."
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    Barnesian said:

    I don't think it is self evident that leftists will vote for Fillon or stay at home.

    1) Le Pen is the change agent leading "the People against the Elite". Fillon, as ex Prime Minister, is one of the elite.
    2) Her economic policies appeals to the left wing more than Fillon's Thatcherite approach.
    3) Her immigration policies and protectionist industrial policies may have more appeal to the left than Fillon's.
    4) The annual Front march in Paris is in May Day.
    5) She may get a little help from Putin.

    I think it is a big mistake to simply think that Le Pen is even more right wing than Fillon so the left have no choice but to vote for Fillon or stay at home. There is a danger of group think on this.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27404016

    Having said that, the polls for the second round show her a long way behind Fillon. But they also showed Fillon a long way behind Juppe and will shortly be discontinued until the real polls so we will be working in the dark.

    I can understand why she is at 4.4 on Betfair (23% probability). It is quite possible we will have President Le Pen on 8th May. Then the UK can join with France in an Entente Cordiale as we jointly negotiate Article 50 with the remaining EU26. That'll be fun.

    As well as May Day, there will also be

    * the Dutch election on 15 March, when Geert Wilders's PVV are strong favourites to win the most seats

    * a big Brexit story on or before 31 March, whether it's the filing of A50 (unlikely in my opinion) or an announcement that the filing will be delayed

    Both of these stories will bring narrative tension in France.

    * Wilders wins, but he doesn't win, because other parties form a coalition against him. Meet the ideas of "politicians still don't get what the population are telling them" and "one last push".

    * Brexit: meet the idea of "what should France do in response?"

    Fillon and Macron answer this question how, exactly? Should France cuddle up with Germany, or should she get together with Britain? Bear in mind that generally speaking the French greatly prefer the rosbifs to the Boche.

    Imagine we've got the TV news on. Geert Wilders is being interviewed...and he's saying the Netherlands should leave the eurozone ("Wilders for the guilder"?). And what's this? Le Pen is saying bring back the franc. And here's May, saying Britain's going to thrive outside of the EU. Now comes Merkel... She's saying the EU must hold together. And Fillon and Macron are saying yes Angela, but not quite three bags full, because there are some details and blah blah blah. Then there are Trump and Farage.

    Meanwhile, Le Pen is presenting herself as the woman of the moment, standing in front of the slogan "In the name of the people".

    When things hot up, I doubt that Fillon and Macron will both hold their current poll scores. Le Pen is underpriced.







  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The last national Yougov poll showed a pro-Tory swing of 3.2%, so the 2.35% swing implied in these figures implies - prima facie - that Labour support is a bit more resilient in Wales.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wales slowly going away from Labour, I wonder what sort of coalition those Sennedd numbers might produce?
    Lab: 22
    Con: 14
    PC: 14
    UKIP: 8
    LD:2
    Total: 60, Majority: 31

    Would have to be Lab+PC that's the only viable coalition.
    Agreed. Unless PC wanted Labour out so badly they'd team up with Con and UKIP!
    Aren't PC left-wing? How could they ever agree to that?

    The problem is that PC would get damaged by association with Labour (see Lib Dems in Scotland before Scottish Labour's death) so might prefer a confidence and supply arrangement over full coalition.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Dromedary said:

    Barnesian said:

    I don't think it is self evident that leftists will vote for Fillon or stay at home.

    1) Le Pen is the change agent leading "the People against the Elite". Fillon, as ex Prime Minister, is one of the elite.
    2) Her economic policies appeals to the left wing more than Fillon's Thatcherite approach.
    3) Her immigration policies and protectionist industrial policies may have more appeal to the left than Fillon's.
    4) The annual Front march in Paris is in May Day.
    5) She may get a little help from Putin.

    I think it is a big mistake to simply think that Le Pen is even more right wing than Fillon so the left have no choice but to vote for Fillon or stay at home. There is a danger of group think on this.

    Having said that, the polls for the second round show her a long way behind Fillon. But they also showed Fillon a long way behind Juppe and will shortly be discontinued until the real polls so we will be working in the dark.

    I can understand why she is at 4.4 on Betfair (23% probability). It is quite possible we will have President Le Pen on 8th May. Then the UK can join with France in an Entente Cordiale as we jointly negotiate Article 50 with the remaining EU26. That'll be fun.

    As well as May Day, there will also be

    * the Dutch election on 15 March, when Geert Wilders's PVV are strong favourites to win the most seats

    * a big Brexit story on or before 31 March, whether it's the filing of A50 (unlikely in my opinion) or an announcement that the filing will be delayed

    Both of these stories will bring narrative tension in France.

    * Wilders wins, but he doesn't win, because other parties form a coalition against him. Meet the ideas of "politicians still don't get what the population are telling them" and "one last push".

    * Brexit: meet the idea of "what should France do in response?"

    Fillon and Macron answer this question how, exactly? Should France cuddle up with Germany, or should she get together with Britain? Bear in mind that generally speaking the French greatly prefer the rosbifs to the Boche.

    Imagine we've got the TV news on. Geert Wilders is being interviewed...and he's saying the Netherlands should leave the eurozone ("Wilders for the guilder"?). And what's this? Le Pen is saying bring back the franc. And here's May, saying Britain's going to thrive outside of the EU. Now comes Merkel... She's saying the EU must hold together. And Fillon and Macron are saying yes Angela, but not quite three bags full, because there are some details and blah blah blah.

    Meanwhile, Le Pen is presenting herself as the woman of the moment, standing in front of the slogan "In the name of the people".

    When things hot up, I doubt that Fillon and Macron will both hold their current poll scores. Le Pen is underpriced.
    I can't help but think this is wishful thinking.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    dr_spyn said:

    Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?

    If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?

    If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.
    Still quite a while.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    At least the parliamentary Labour Party seem to be being a bit quieter regarding Corbyn or just going (Like Reed I suppose)

    I think all the 35 who nominated but then didn't support him in particular deserve to see Labour take the utter thrashing it will inevitably get in 2020, harsh lessons are seldom learnt easily.

    I believe the quietness is a deliberate strategy. Avoid allowing the blame for appalling poll levels to be directed at MPs who are causing friction and blurting to the media all the time. This is Corbyn's gig now and he will stand or fall.
    Yes I think its correct, if Labour go up the swanney as a united party then the fault can be put at Corbyn's door alone for the failure.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    TGOHF said:

    FPT : an amazing insight into the referendum tactics from Dominic Cummings.

    Long but doesn't pull any punches.

    https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/

    I like that he starts off by saying he isn't out to write a book, then follows with 20,000 words!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited January 2017

    Dromedary said:



    When things hot up, I doubt that Fillon and Macron will both hold their current poll scores. Le Pen is underpriced.

    I can't help but think this is wishful thinking.
    Edit: It is, I think - I read Le Pen the opposite way round to this, she is a 7-2 shot that should be at least 9-1 +.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?

    If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.
    Still quite a while.
    Historically it would be very normal.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Michael Portillo currently sucking some fisherman's friend's on bbc2
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Stellar performance Mike.
  • That is creepy Scott
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?

    If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.
    Still quite a while.
    Historically it would be very normal.
    Is there a list of typical delays between vacancy and subsequent by-election?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    dr_spyn said:

    Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?

    Is their a vacancy at Copeland at the moment ?
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    There's the new Labour strategy. Dress Corbyn up in a monk's habit and make him say "These aren't the votes you are looking for" to Mrs May at PMQs. Could take him to a whole new level in the popularity stakes.
  • surbiton said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?

    Is their a vacancy at Copeland at the moment ?
    How normal is it to know for months that there will be a vacancy but isn't yet. It seems weird to me so not sure how much weight we should give precedent.

    To be honest given how normal it has come to go to the polls in May it doesn't seem at all bizarre to wait.
  • justin124 said:

    The last national Yougov poll showed a pro-Tory swing of 3.2%, so the 2.35% swing implied in these figures implies - prima facie - that Labour support is a bit more resilient in Wales.

    Not according to Wales tonight which shows a collapsing Welsh Labour Party and the disaster that is Corbyn.

    Lowest poll rating on the Assembly constituency vote worst since Yougov's first ever Welsh poll in 2009

    Furthermore A & E in Wales are in a state of crisis even worse than England

    Also a recent test of the Welsh GCE maths paper was sat by Korean students who completed it in 15 minutes of the 60 minutes allocated. When asked the Korean tutor said that the Welsh maths paper was equivalent to their PRIMARY level test. Korea in the top 7 Pisa test - Wales at 36

    And all of this under labour
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I don't accept the reasoning of the Labour campaign manager - that the County Council elections would boost by - election turnout. It would surely be vice versa - with a relatively higher turnout for the by election boosting turnout in the County Council wards affected!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited January 2017

    justin124 said:

    The last national Yougov poll showed a pro-Tory swing of 3.2%, so the 2.35% swing implied in these figures implies - prima facie - that Labour support is a bit more resilient in Wales.

    Not according to Wales tonight which shows a collapsing Welsh Labour Party and the disaster that is Corbyn.

    Lowest poll rating on the Assembly constituency vote worst since Yougov's first ever Welsh poll in 2009

    Furthermore A & E in Wales are in a state of crisis even worse than England

    Also a recent test of the Welsh GCE maths paper was sat by Korean students who completed it in 15 minutes of the 60 minutes allocated. When asked the Korean tutor said that the Welsh maths paper was equivalent to their PRIMARY level test. Korea in the top 7 Pisa test - Wales at 36

    And all of this under labour
    I am not seeking to defend any of that - and have always strongly opposed Devolution anyway. The fact is that the swing from the 2015 General Election result implied by these figures - 2.35% - is lower than what was shown in last week's GB poll - 3.2%.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wales slowly going away from Labour, I wonder what sort of coalition those Sennedd numbers might produce?
    Lab: 22
    Con: 14
    PC: 14
    UKIP: 8
    LD:2
    Total: 60, Majority: 31

    Would have to be Lab+PC that's the only viable coalition.
    Agreed. Unless PC wanted Labour out so badly they'd team up with Con and UKIP!
    Aren't PC left-wing? How could they ever agree to that?

    The problem is that PC would get damaged by association with Labour (see Lib Dems in Scotland before Scottish Labour's death) so might prefer a confidence and supply arrangement over full coalition.
    The LDs in Scotland weren't damaged by their association with SLab, they had their highest ever Holyrood constituency share in 2007 after two periods of coalition with them.
  • justin124 said:

    I don't accept the reasoning of the Labour campaign manager - that the County Council elections would boost by - election turnout. It would surely be vice versa - with a relatively higher turnout for the by election boosting turnout in the County Council wards affected!

    I'd also query whether it will help Labour in that it underestimates willingness to split ballots. I'd have thought a fairly common reaction could be, "I'm still basically Labour as I'm voting for them at the local elections... but due to Brexit, nuclear, and Corbyn, I'll lend my 'other vote' to the Tories."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited January 2017
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?

    If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.
    Still quite a while.
    Historically it would be very normal.
    I just crunched the numbers, since 2010 the median delay between seat being vacant and by election was 38 days, average 48 (126 days for Batley 2016 and 134 days for Belfast West 2011 bring it up), standard deviation of 28 days. I'd say it looks like an outlier.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Dromedary said:



    When things hot up, I doubt that Fillon and Macron will both hold their current poll scores. Le Pen is underpriced.

    I can't help but think this is wishful thinking.
    Edit: It is, I think - I read Le Pen the opposite way round to this, she is a 7-2 shot that should be at least 9-1 +.
    I think more like 6/1, but same difference. 4/1 to win the second round if she makes it.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    I think JC can kiss goodbye to his own age group. We grew up with people like him. While they may not dislike all his policies, they know a gob shite when they see one.

    My advice ... can you teach him to dance and go on Strictly?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wales slowly going away from Labour, I wonder what sort of coalition those Sennedd numbers might produce?
    Lab: 22
    Con: 14
    PC: 14
    UKIP: 8
    LD:2
    Total: 60, Majority: 31

    Would have to be Lab+PC that's the only viable coalition.
    Agreed. Unless PC wanted Labour out so badly they'd team up with Con and UKIP!
    Aren't PC left-wing? How could they ever agree to that?

    The problem is that PC would get damaged by association with Labour (see Lib Dems in Scotland before Scottish Labour's death) so might prefer a confidence and supply arrangement over full coalition.
    The LDs in Scotland weren't damaged by their association with SLab, they had their highest ever Holyrood constituency share in 2007 after two periods of coalition with them.
    Bizarre to only look at the constituency share when that isn't all that determines seats won.

    They also received their [then] lowest ever list share in 2007 and lost a seat ending with their [then] lowest ever seat total.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    She doesn't she wants neither hard nor soft Brexit but the best possible trade deal which controls UK borders
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    Sophie Ridge should have asked whether she will resign if she doesn't meet her Article 50 deadline. May not to last the year has to be value.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Boundaries changes for MP would make massive difference in Wales for Labour.

    If we apply uniformly across Wales the changes to party support since the May 2015 general election that are implied by this poll, on the current seat boundaries, we get the following projected result (with all seats won by a party at last year’s general election remaining in their hands unless stated otherwise):

    Labour: 24 seats (losing Ynys Môn)
    Conservative: 11 seats (no change)
    Plaid Cymru: 4 seats (gaining Ynys Môn)
    Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)

    What about the new electoral map for Wales proposed by the Boundary Commission at the end of the summer? Under those boundaries – and using the ‘notional’ 2015 results for those boundaries produced by Anthony Wells of YouGov – this poll projects the following outcome:

    Labour: 14 seats
    Conservative: 11 seats
    Plaid Cymru: 3 seats
    Liberal Democrats: 1 seat

    Courtesy: Number Cruncher Politics
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    Excellent Twitter thread from David Allen Green starting here, which patiently and logically shows that hard Brexit is the only possible outcome, based on May's own statements.

    To blame the press for the predictable consequences of her failure to be honest with the British people is disingenuous to say the least.

    https://twitter.com/Law_and_policy/status/818526891833524225
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited January 2017
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?

    If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.
    Still quite a while.
    Historically it would be very normal.
    I just crunched the numbers, since 2010 the median delay between seat being vacant and by election was 38 days, average 48 (126 days for Batley 2016 and 134 days for Belfast West 2011 bring it up), standard deviation of 28 days. I'd say it looks like an outlier.
    2010 is very recent and we live in an age where by elections are much rarer than they once were.Increasingly parties have been inclined to rush by elections to prevent an opponent building up momentum etc. I recall the Hillhead by election. The Tory MP died at the end of 1981 with the by election taking place in the last week of March 1982.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    She doesn't she wants neither hard nor soft Brexit but the best possible trade deal which controls UK borders
    Or in common parlance, Hard Brexit. Time to face facts.
  • The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    Opinion for controlling immigration against the single market is up from 41% to 46% today. As you cannot have both according to Merkel controlling borders will be the popular choice and will be May's choice and confirmed by the end of the month
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    The only entirely new coalition of support that has won - or now ever will win - power for Labour, was Tony Blair getting the support of middle-class Tories.
  • Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    Sophie Ridge should have asked whether she will resign if she doesn't meet her Article 50 deadline. May not to last the year has to be value.
    Why would she? She'd go to the polls before she'd resign.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    Sophie Ridge should have asked whether she will resign if she doesn't meet her Article 50 deadline. May not to last the year has to be value.
    Why would she? She'd go to the polls before she'd resign.
    It depends on the circumstances. The dance required to engineer an election would provide plenty of opportunity for a dose of Tory regicide.
  • The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    Excellent Twitter thread from David Allen Green starting here, which patiently and logically shows that hard Brexit is the only possible outcome, based on May's own statements.

    To blame the press for the predictable consequences of her failure to be honest with the British people is disingenuous to say the least.

    https://twitter.com/Law_and_policy/status/818526891833524225
    She's simply holding open the option that we get a "have cake and eat it" Brexit whereby the EU27 give us single market access while letting us control our borders. They say they won't do that but then they would pre-negotiations wouldn't they?
  • Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    Sophie Ridge should have asked whether she will resign if she doesn't meet her Article 50 deadline. May not to last the year has to be value.
    Why would she? She'd go to the polls before she'd resign.
    It depends on the circumstances. The dance required to engineer an election would provide plenty of opportunity for a dose of Tory regicide.
    Not really. Especially if the benches opposite are why she's not been able to get it invoked. Talk of an early election generally causes party unity not splits.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    Sophie Ridge should have asked whether she will resign if she doesn't meet her Article 50 deadline. May not to last the year has to be value.
    She's not going to resign as Tory leader this year. Possibly be forced into resigning as PM in order to engineer an election, but I'd bet she's still PM a year from today.
  • Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    Sophie Ridge should have asked whether she will resign if she doesn't meet her Article 50 deadline. May not to last the year has to be value.
    She's not going to resign as Tory leader this year. Possibly be forced into resigning as PM in order to engineer an election, but I'd bet she's still PM a year from today.
    The only way she resigns is losing a general election. Anyone who loses a general election to Corbyn should commit hari kiri not resign though!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited January 2017

    Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    Sophie Ridge should have asked whether she will resign if she doesn't meet her Article 50 deadline. May not to last the year has to be value.
    Why would she? She'd go to the polls before she'd resign.
    It depends on the circumstances. The dance required to engineer an election would provide plenty of opportunity for a dose of Tory regicide.
    The latest polls show she would win a general election by the biggest landslide by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1983, Tory MPs would be delighted if she called a general election and led the party into it, as would Tory candidates
  • Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    Sophie Ridge should have asked whether she will resign if she doesn't meet her Article 50 deadline. May not to last the year has to be value.
    She's not going to resign as Tory leader this year. Possibly be forced into resigning as PM in order to engineer an election, but I'd bet she's still PM a year from today.
    And beyond
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    edited January 2017

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wales slowly going away from Labour, I wonder what sort of coalition those Sennedd numbers might produce?
    Lab: 22
    Con: 14
    PC: 14
    UKIP: 8
    LD:2
    Total: 60, Majority: 31

    Would have to be Lab+PC that's the only viable coalition.
    Agreed. Unless PC wanted Labour out so badly they'd team up with Con and UKIP!
    Aren't PC left-wing? How could they ever agree to that?

    The problem is that PC would get damaged by association with Labour (see Lib Dems in Scotland before Scottish Labour's death) so might prefer a confidence and supply arrangement over full coalition.
    The LDs in Scotland weren't damaged by their association with SLab, they had their highest ever Holyrood constituency share in 2007 after two periods of coalition with them.
    Bizarre to only look at the constituency share when that isn't all that determines seats won.

    They also received their [then] lowest ever list share in 2007 and lost a seat ending with their [then] lowest ever seat total.
    You mean the 8 year association with SLab caused their list share to go down by a massive 0.5%? Certainly bizarre to base a quarter baked proposition on that stat.

    Of course we could speculate on which associations caused the SLD's (current) lowest ever constituency share, their (current) equal lowest seat total and their (current) equal lowest list share.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    The only entirely new coalition of support that has won - or now ever will win - power for Labour, was Tony Blair getting the support of middle-class Tories.

    Absolutely. Until Labour win back those who voted for Blair in 2001 (people like me, who are now Tory members!) they're not getting anywhere near power.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    She doesn't she wants neither hard nor soft Brexit but the best possible trade deal which controls UK borders
    Or in common parlance, Hard Brexit. Time to face facts.
    Hard Brexit requires a points system for migration not the job offer requirement May is proposing and no budget contributions to the EU, whereas May is still open to limited budget contributions
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    She doesn't she wants neither hard nor soft Brexit but the best possible trade deal which controls UK borders
    Or in common parlance, Hard Brexit. Time to face facts.
    Hard Brexit requires a points system for migration not the job offer requirement May is proposing and no budget contributions to the EU, whereas May is still open to limited budget contributions
    You seem to know more about May's thinking than she does.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited January 2017
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?

    If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.
    Still quite a while.
    Historically it would be very normal.
    I just crunched the numbers, since 2010 the median delay between seat being vacant and by election was 38 days, average 48 (126 days for Batley 2016 and 134 days for Belfast West 2011 bring it up), standard deviation of 28 days. I'd say it looks like an outlier.
    2010 is very recent and we live in an age where by elections are much rarer than they once were.Increasingly parties have been inclined to rush by elections to prevent an opponent building up momentum etc. I recall the Hillhead by election. The Tory MP died at the end of 1981 with the by election taking place in the last week of March 1982.
    Same analysis for 79-83 Parliament: median 80 days, average 78 days, standard deviation 28 days. Not as much of an outlier, but still on the high end, and not "very normal".

    Still, since we now live in age you describe, surely we should be comparing to by elections held in that age?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    The headlines about May accusing the media of causing a slump in GBP are adding to the impression of chaos.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/818534624179666944
    She doesn't she wants neither hard nor soft Brexit but the best possible trade deal which controls UK borders
    Or in common parlance, Hard Brexit. Time to face facts.
    Hard Brexit requires a points system for migration not the job offer requirement May is proposing and no budget contributions to the EU, whereas May is still open to limited budget contributions
    You seem to know more about May's thinking than she does.
    May's aides said last September they were aiming for a job offer requirement not a points system if you bothered to look and she has also not ruled out limited budget contributions continuing to the EU
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/home-affairs/immigration/news/78693/eu-migrants-will-need-job-access-britain-after-brexit
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wales slowly going away from Labour, I wonder what sort of coalition those Sennedd numbers might produce?
    Lab: 22
    Con: 14
    PC: 14
    UKIP: 8
    LD:2
    Total: 60, Majority: 31

    Would have to be Lab+PC that's the only viable coalition.
    Agreed. Unless PC wanted Labour out so badly they'd team up with Con and UKIP!
    Aren't PC left-wing? How could they ever agree to that?

    The problem is that PC would get damaged by association with Labour (see Lib Dems in Scotland before Scottish Labour's death) so might prefer a confidence and supply arrangement over full coalition.
    The LDs in Scotland weren't damaged by their association with SLab, they had their highest ever Holyrood constituency share in 2007 after two periods of coalition with them.
    Bizarre to only look at the constituency share when that isn't all that determines seats won.

    They also received their [then] lowest ever list share in 2007 and lost a seat ending with their [then] lowest ever seat total.
    You mean the 8 year association with SLab caused their list share to go down by a massive 0.5%? Certainly bizarre to base a quarter baked proposition on that stat.

    Of course we could speculate on which associations caused the SLD's (current) lowest ever constituency share, their (current) lowest ever seat total and their (current) equal lowest list share.
    You might want to check your maths.

    1999: 12.43%
    2007: 11.3%

    They lost more than double what you claimed over the 8 years.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    Jezza relaunch - what are the odds on him turning up on the breakfast sofa minus his beard?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    TGOHF said:

    FPT : an amazing insight into the referendum tactics from Dominic Cummings.

    Long but doesn't pull any punches.

    https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/

    Fabulous read. Many thanks for the link.

  • RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?

    If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.
    Still quite a while.
    Historically it would be very normal.
    I just crunched the numbers, since 2010 the median delay between seat being vacant and by election was 38 days, average 48 (126 days for Batley 2016 and 134 days for Belfast West 2011 bring it up), standard deviation of 28 days. I'd say it looks like an outlier.
    2010 is very recent and we live in an age where by elections are much rarer than they once were.Increasingly parties have been inclined to rush by elections to prevent an opponent building up momentum etc. I recall the Hillhead by election. The Tory MP died at the end of 1981 with the by election taking place in the last week of March 1982.
    Same analysis for 79-83 Parliament: median 80 days, average 78 days, standard deviation 28 days. Not as much of an outlier, but still on the high end, and not "very normal".

    Still, since we now live in age you describe, surely we should be comparing to by elections held in that age?
    Why are you analysing decades ago rather than any of the 5 completed Parliament's in-between?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?

    If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.
    Still quite a while.
    Historically it would be very normal.
    I just crunched the numbers, since 2010 the median delay between seat being vacant and by election was 38 days, average 48 (126 days for Batley 2016 and 134 days for Belfast West 2011 bring it up), standard deviation of 28 days. I'd say it looks like an outlier.
    2010 is very recent and we live in an age where by elections are much rarer than they once were.Increasingly parties have been inclined to rush by elections to prevent an opponent building up momentum etc. I recall the Hillhead by election. The Tory MP died at the end of 1981 with the by election taking place in the last week of March 1982.
    Same analysis for 79-83 Parliament: median 80 days, average 78 days, standard deviation 28 days. Not as much of an outlier, but still on the high end, and not "very normal".

    Still, since we now live in age you describe, surely we should be comparing to by elections held in that age?
    Why are you analysing decades ago rather than any of the 5 completed Parliament's in-between?
    I already did 2010-present!
This discussion has been closed.