Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NightHawks is now open
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NightHawks is now open
A new poll says three-quarters of us are monarchists, with the new royal baby expected to increase the Windsors’ popularity. But republicans are not giving up – on the contrary, in fact
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
And your prediction to help my nerves mr eagles ;-)
Mr eagles posted - England could declare first thing in the morning and they'd have enough to win.
It doesn't fill me with confidence mr eagles ;-)
http://news.sky.com/
I'll try and see about getting the racing review up on pb2 and the enormo-haddock blog.
It sounds like Vettel reckons the tyres make little difference compared to the old ones:
http://www.espn.co.uk/redbull/motorsport/story/117211.html
I caught a little of the enws (Sky, I think) where they had two talking head on about fracking. The anti chap was British, the pro was American, and the one against it suggested we'd need 100,000 wells... which seems rather a lot.
I just wish they had they followed the same academic line to health which Lebo, Norpoth and Sir Roderick have taken to the prediction of electoral outcomes.
On a political note, I can't help but feel that much of the analysis on the tough Tory position from article 16 is pretty spot on. It's hard to see Labour doing worse than they did in 2010, or UKIP not making at least some gains. Given that, the Tories need to either do a hell of a job on Labour or pull something else out of the bag (massive Tory turnout?) to do better than another coalition or straight defeat for them.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nighthawks
The article is right that the calibre of both Labour and Tories here ain't bad either as talent does seem alive and well in Cardiff Bay. Don't agree with much of Carwyn's world view but you can't deny he's "good" and Wales does well by him. Oddly the Tories right from the start, having lost the devolution vote, chucked themselves into the debate and while nowhere near power or within decades of it are part of "the scene" and accepted as such, unlike Scotland probably. Labour is not as monolithic as it was. Still dominates of course but look at the long term trend in seats on the periphery of the Valleys - the scales to weigh those majorities are a lot more delicate than they were in Newport, Torfaen, and others.
Institutionally Scotland's separateness is far greater but culturally of course the Celticness of Wales remains more secure than Scotland. Yr hen iaith ( the old language ) is to be heard regularly in the pubs and restaurants of Cardiff (in a big minority of course but far more prevalent than 20 yrs ago) in a way unimaginable in Edinburgh or Glasgow. The rugby ain't bad either these days.
The answer of course is we don't know, since there has never been a coalition, and all models are based on data pertaining to periods of single-party government. (I have added this caveat in my previous discussion of this subject, and on my data resources page)
However, at some point this coalition will (presumably) disengage, and Cameron will stand alone at the head of either a Tory minority or caretaker government. If his PM approval then suddenly takes a dive, we will be given the answer...
Ed was so afraid of being labelled "as a father", he didn't marry his partner or put his name on his kid's birth certificate.
Until he was forced into it.
Weak, weak, weak.
Gordo saved the World, and was popular in Scotland.
Ed will have done neither of those things.
But that was always "Nighthawk" in the singular.
Or possibly "Neethawk" if you're Officer Crabtree!
Though I do sound like Officer Crabtree when I speak French with my hybrid Yorkshire/Manc accent.
When are we going get around to pardoning all the old crones who were burnt at the stake for witchcraft?
Good story on the front of the Mail that might interest Tim
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/358313089680166912/photo/1
Ugh. Sometimes it's hard not to despair.
I hope that your accent is restored soon.
Who got the Sir Cliff Richard references ?
Within living memory is a fairly sound limit, I would've thought.
My accent will get worse, what with living in Sheffield, working in Manchester.
Institutionally Scotland's separateness is far greater but culturally of course the Celticness of Wales remains more secure than Scotland. Yr hen iaith ( the old language ) is to be heard regularly in the pubs and restaurants of Cardiff (in a big minority of course but far more prevalent than 20 yrs ago) in a way unimaginable in Edinburgh or Glasgow. The rugby ain't bad either these days.
Good post. Says me, a bona fide Valley Boy.
I live about 14 miles north of Cardiff and I love living here. Love the pace of life, love the friendliness. I just wouldn't swap it for anywhere.
But I do worry about Wales's status as an economic backwater. As you say, Cardiff and the Vale are okay (and Swansea SA1 area is trying) but beyond that we are struggling. Too much reliance on the public sector, too much intransigence in some areas (heads of the valleys, much of the Rhondda) towards the world, people there believing they are owed a living and not enough get-up-and-go.
I think the political parties should invest in the Universities. The expansion of Uni of Glam has worked well, Cardiff Uni is thriving and the more students who come here the more metropolitan and outward thinking the place is becoming. We need to attract the bright young things to offset the third-generation workless who - sadly - show no signs of improving their lives.
The other issue is that the language barrier divides unlike in Scotland. SNP can win an area like Angus but Plaid has no chance in Montgomery. If Plaid is to ever get closer to indie they would need to win over more of the English speakers. You say there are more Welsh speakers in Cardiff but I wonder if these are people working for the Assembly - I guess they have to be bilingual. You won't find many Welsh speakers in the valleys.
Alas, it is for the Scots to pardon the old crones who got burnt at the stake for witchcraft, as they were in the habit of burning witches. In England we mostly hanged 'em, apart from a very few who were convicted of petty treason.
Vicki, apropos of nothing, is the only tv series cast member to appear in the current stage production of 'Allo 'Allo.
Anyway, time to scurry off and hide in the fridge in a vain effort to cool down. Night, everyone.
Perhaps Mr Smithson likes to back an underdog, likes the fact that the stats back his betting judgement and go against the initial consensus - and prevailing right-wing view - that Ed is a bit crap.
I don't mind Ed. He seems a nice enough chap. But he's a bit like Tim Henman in my view. Likeable, clean-cut and a bit nerdy and boring but unlikely to ever win anything.
Perhaps Ed will end up having a hill named after him. I suspect he'd quite like that.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-23382771
Good post. Says me, a bona fide Valley Boy.
I live about 14 miles north of Cardiff and I love living here. Love the pace of life, love the friendliness. I just wouldn't swap it for anywhere.
But I do worry about Wales's status as an economic backwater. As you say, Cardiff and the Vale are okay (and Swansea SA1 area is trying) but beyond that we are struggling. Too much reliance on the public sector, too much intransigence in some areas (heads of the valleys, much of the Rhondda) towards the world, people there believing they are owed a living and not enough get-up-and-go.
I think the political parties should invest in the Universities. The expansion of Uni of Glam has worked well, Cardiff Uni is thriving and the more students who come here the more metropolitan and outward thinking the place is becoming. We need to attract the bright young things to offset the third-generation workless who - sadly -
Amen to all you say. Great place to live but, Wales' tragedy IMO is the legacy of "huge employers" from heavy industry coal, steel, copper (Swansea), rail, etc which has made the light industry entrepreneurial spirit of parts of England somewhat foreign. Not totally of course shades of grey and all that, but Wales cannot thrive as a public sector ( DVLA, Companies' House, Patent office, RAF Valley etc) back room or branch economy (Sony etc). It can survive thus but not thrive generally. As for Plaid's independence thoughts on current economic basis ( especially given you can commute to Cardiff from Gloucestershire at a push so try raising taxes chaps and see what happens) - it's b*****ks in my considered opinion.
If tax varying powers are granted it would be great to see something imaginative like lowering the rates via a vis England. I'll need smelling salts to bring me round if it happens mind.
Taken to its logical extreme, we would apologize to John Christie, John George Haigh, etc. for hanging them, on the grounds that:-
i) we wouldn't do that to you now,
ii) we would fight tooth and nail (extradition) to prevent anyone else doing that to you either...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-23381848
I can't see Wales becoming independent for a long time either. Regarding the economy the issue seems to be 1) that Wales relies on being subsidised by the Barnett formula but unlike Scotland has no resources 2) Wales is more closely tied economically to England (M4 corridor in the south, Liverpool area in the north) than Scotland is to England.
The other issue is that the language barrier divides unlike in Scotland. SNP can win an area like Angus but Plaid has no chance in Montgomery. If Plaid is to ever get closer to indie they would need to win over more of the English speakers. You say there are more Welsh speakers in Cardiff but I wonder if these are people working for the Assembly - I guess they have to be bilingual. You won't find many Welsh speakers in the valleys.
Yup I'm sure the Assembly and S4C etc help boost the language in Cardiff compared to the Valleys, though I think the census shows not dissimilar numbers at 10-15% of speakers in both areas. Though I suspect more kids in school in the Rhondda ( say ) than executives populating the Potted Pig on St Mary St in Cardiff city centre and hence the executives greater audibility so to speak. Nevertheless I suspect knowing a Gaelic speaker as a friend in Edinburgh is vanishingly rare whereas having Welsh speaking friends and acquaintances in Cardiff is relatively common place.
It's when you venture further up the valleys that the fun really starts!
Agree with all you say though.
2. Speaking of these relatives, we can ask there consent, just as we do when we give posthumous honours.
3. Since when was making a statement something governments shouldn't do? The Tories recently stated the marriage tax is about symbolism, for example.
4. Who are the militant homosexuals? The government, or me? Or both? Either way, the present day government is straight by a clear majority, and you don't know my sexuality.
Thing is, objective one in the Valleys (or elsewhere) is in my experience often seen as " a good thing " which in a narrow sense it is of course - more German cash - but in the broader sweep is utter failure as it brackets us with E Europe and Club Med rather than Baden Wuttemberg and Denmark.
As for HRH, how did someone who has never had a coffee at the Guardian iCafe arrive at those ridiculous opinions on homeopathy, global warming, you name it. Wasn't he the 60 months to save the world guy, tim?
He had the misfortune to be born in 1912. Tough. His life experience cannot be altered one jot, by empty gestures... It happened. It's history. It cannot be altered. It was nothing personal. Just the Law...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/exclusive-new-bluechip-dirty-tricks-scandal-revealed-after-12-years-of-silence-8721325.html
His private life is irrelevant, except to morbid obsessives (who probably have only the sketchiest understanding of his contributions) and those who find it convenient to hi-jack a dead man to advance their own agendas...
Should the people of Rome apologise for invading Britain in AD 66? The consensus seems to be no, but at the same time Britain should apologise for the slave trade which was taking place in about 1500.
So it seems like some kind of barrier is set between 66 and 1500 by someone or other.
You can't change the effin past. Nor should you try to. Geddit?
Edited for typo
Clue: "Damn. We've slaughtered the wrong pig!", Churchill, 1945
'Three years in, and message from Ed Miliband remains 'move along now, nothing to see'.
Cut Ed a bit of slack,he's managed a u-turn on welfare,education,benefits cap,immigration,NHS,tuition fees & coalition spending plans.
Any more u-turns and the Labour party manifesto will be on a post-it note
Which left me with the feeling that the only rule applicable to such apologies is that they can be demanded for events far enough back that "your" country has to apologise to "mine", but not so far back that "my" country has to apologise to "yours"...
Posted today at the Bezos Expeditions website.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23378694
Should we feel sorry for him, being an ethnic minority member, succeeding against the odds? Or, alternatively, angry with him for denying this side of his heritage over the years?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/across-the-universe/2013/jul/19/smile-nasa-portrait-earth-saturn-cassini
The simple answer to your question about the follow-on is that with such hot weather the England bowlers would have been exhausted and would have appreciated the opportunity for a rest.
Actually, no it isn't. It's depressing.
For although he briskly told Woman’s Hour that his mother was ‘not Anglo-Indian’ — as has been suggested in the past — and that he had instead an ‘Anglo-Indian stepfather’, it turns out that he does indeed have Anglo-Indian blood.
That's dated 1st Nov 2011 so it seems it wasn't "official" as recently as then.
I suspect @Andy_JS has seen a mention of this as a "new" thing but without a link we don't know. Hiding Anglo-Indian ancestry in showbiz is hardly unique though. Merle Oberon did it, just off the top of my head. Passed off her mother as her servant.