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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farron says Corbyn’s now “cheerleader in chief for the Conservative Brexit government”

.@timfarron : Jeremy Corbyn has ceased to be Leader of the Opposition to become cheerleader in chief for the Conservative Brexit government”

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TheScreamingEagles

It is going excellently, given the events of today, just imagine how much fun a six week long general election campaign with Jeremy Corbyn front and centre will be.

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818748173850214401

Sandpit

Second like Labour, if they get lucky.

Jonathan

Farron is silly.

Sandpit

FPT:
This morning's interview's seem somewhat 'brave' of Mr Corbyn, as Sir Humphrey might once have said.

Not half as brave as @williamglen though, in calling @SeanT's £10k bet. Hope he didn't have too much whisky last night, but at least one can say he is prepared to put his money where his mouth is! Good luck to the pair of you, PB at its finest

rottenborough

Jonathan said:

Farron is silly.

Indeed. Does he want Labour to get a grip and replace Corbyn?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jonathan, he is. But lucky to have Corbyn as Labour's leader.

TheScreamingEagles

Looks like the Labour party might lose its only tabloid supporter.

Mirror Group Newspapers in merger talks with Dirty Desmond's Express Newspapers

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/09/trinity-mirror-in-merger-talks-with-express-newspapers?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

tpfkar

So Corbyn has annoyed the lefties and Guardianistas on freedom of movement, and the free marketeers and premier league football fans by calling for wage caps.

What's his plan for lunchtime?

TheWhiteRabbit

What is this - an actual position from Quiet Man Farron?!

Sandpit

PlatoSaid said:

Love this

General Election 97
Westminster voting intention
CON 31% [0]
LAB 48% [-2]
LD 16% [+1]
LAB lead +17 [-2]
ICM for the Guardian
(3-5/1)

What a difference two decades makes!

Casino_Royale

Worst thing about this is that I'd definitely lose my Khan and Balls bets.

#savejeremy

tlg86

FPT:

tlg86 said:

weejonnie said:

malcolmg said:

Slackbladder said:

Philip_Thompson said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Scotland might actually qualify for a football world cup now

https://twitter.com/SkySportsNewsHQ/status/818754296892235777

No chance , it is only 2 extra for Europe so we will still be miles away.

So it will be for nations like Australia then.

More African and Asian countries probably.

Will be a tedious affair , extra weeks of meaningless dribble of some diddy teams getting humped and then a week of real football at the end. Will rake inmore cash though so the troughers in FIFA will be rubbing their hands.

We have 8 groups of 4 at the moment? Total matches = 8*6 = 48
16 groups of 3 becomes (I think) : 16 * 3 = 48

Presumably this will be followed by a round of 32. So essentially they've turned the current tournament into a knock out competition with more extra time and penalties. An utter disgrace.

isam

Who is this Tim Fallon that keeps getting mentioned in the Thread Headers?

TheScreamingEagles

English patriotism is on the rise at the expense of a sense of British identity, with voters in England increasingly likely to describe themselves as solely English, according to research.

The studyfound that almost a fifth of people describe themselves as English not British, up 5% from 2015, with more than a third of those surveyed describing themselves as either solely English or more English than British.

The YouGov data showed that the number of people who described themselves solely as British fell in 2016 from a year earlier. Last year just 18% of those surveyed said they felt only British or more British than English.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/10/english-patriotism-on-the-rise-research-shows?CMP=share_btn_tw

TheWhiteRabbit

isam said:

Who is this Tim Fallon that keeps getting mentioned in the Thread Headers?

You mean Fillon

TheScreamingEagles

tpfkar said:

So Corbyn has annoyed the lefties and Guardianistas on freedom of movement, and the free marketeers and premier league football fans by calling for wage caps.

What's his plan for lunchtime?

To announce he's use the flag of England as bog roll?

Pulpstar

Hmm - very generous of Shadsy, I've just taken the 4-5 Corbyn 2019 or later here.

AlastairMeeks

Disappointingly, SPIN are no longer doing markets on days in tenure for political leaders (I asked a while back with reference to Theresa May as Prime Minister). Today would definitely be a day to sell Jeremy Corbyn. He might well have brought his departure date forward by years today.

TheScreamingEagles

Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, unsurprising. A natural reaction to ever more power flowing to everywhere Not-England through devolution and the kickback against multi-culturalism.

Be nice if we got an English Parliament, but I can't see it happening anytime soon.

Slackbladder

The thing which will trigger corbyn going is dire local election results, so time to look at whats coming up this and next May?

John_M

TheScreamingEagles said:

English patriotism is on the rise at the expense of a sense of British identity, with voters in England increasingly likely to describe themselves as solely English, according to research.

The studyfound that almost a fifth of people describe themselves as English not British, up 5% from 2015, with more than a third of those surveyed describing themselves as either solely English or more English than British.

The YouGov data showed that the number of people who described themselves solely as British fell in 2016 from a year earlier. Last year just 18% of those surveyed said they felt only British or more British than English.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/10/english-patriotism-on-the-rise-research-shows?CMP=share_btn_tw

I don't understand this whole issue with national identity.

I was born English and will die English. I don't see I had much choice in the matter, given my Mother had the poor taste to give birth to me into terribly unfashionable Burton-on-Trent.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, unsurprising. A natural reaction to ever more power flowing to everywhere Not-England through devolution and the kickback against multi-culturalism.

Be nice if we got an English Parliament, but I can't see it happening anytime soon.

We don't need an English Parliament.

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

Disappointingly, SPIN are no longer doing markets on days in tenure for political leaders (I asked a while back with reference to Theresa May as Prime Minister). Today would definitely be a day to sell Jeremy Corbyn. He might well have brought his departure date forward by years today.

I reckon those YouGov/Wales poll might also be a tipping point too, I can actually see the Tories being ahead of Labour in both Wales & Scotland at the next general election (in votes, but not seats)

TheScreamingEagles

John_M said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

English patriotism is on the rise at the expense of a sense of British identity, with voters in England increasingly likely to describe themselves as solely English, according to research.

The studyfound that almost a fifth of people describe themselves as English not British, up 5% from 2015, with more than a third of those surveyed describing themselves as either solely English or more English than British.

The YouGov data showed that the number of people who described themselves solely as British fell in 2016 from a year earlier. Last year just 18% of those surveyed said they felt only British or more British than English.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/10/english-patriotism-on-the-rise-research-shows?CMP=share_btn_tw

I don't understand this whole issue with national identity.

I was born English and will die English. I don't see I had much choice in the matter, given my Mother had the poor taste to give birth to me into terribly unfashionable Burton-on-Trent.

Being English is a state of mind, not what your passport says.

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

Have I gone mad or is that an 84% book? If so there might be a smidgen of value in backing them all!!

malcolmg

FPT
weejonnie said:

» show previous quotes
We have 8 groups of 4 at the moment? Total matches = 8*6 = 48
16 groups of 3 becomes (I think) : 16 * 3 = 48

I stand corrected, however it will just be as boring as ever with one team per group instead of two going through. It is quantity over quality for the sake of it. Why not just dump qualifying and have them all play in the finals. It is a money making exercise just the same.

Floater

TheScreamingEagles said:

tpfkar said:

So Corbyn has annoyed the lefties and Guardianistas on freedom of movement, and the free marketeers and premier league football fans by calling for wage caps.

What's his plan for lunchtime?

To announce he's use the flag of England as bog roll?

That was last year.

14% best pm rating was it? how long before sub 10%

Sandpit

Slackbladder said:

The thing which will trigger corbyn going is dire local election results, so time to look at whats coming up this and next May?

Labour delaying the Copeland by-election until May 4th, and still losing it, would be a nightmare for Corbyn.

Tories are already delivering leaflets in the area with Corbyn's many quotes about nuclear energy and weaponry, in announcing his resignation early Jamie Reed has given his party's opponents a head start in campaigning.

Tissue_Price

isam said:

Who is this Tim Fallon that keeps getting mentioned in the Thread Headers?

Leader of the Opposition, 2025-2030?

Floater

isam said:

Who is this Tim Fallon that keeps getting mentioned in the Thread Headers?

He needs all the publicity he can get.

Scott_P

@bbclaurak: Corbyn tells me plans to reduce exploitation in work place will 'probably' reduce immigration but he still doesn't think levels are too high

Floater

TheScreamingEagles said:

It is going excellently, given the events of today, just imagine how much fun a six week long general election campaign with Jeremy Corbyn front and centre will be.

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818748173850214401

"If Jeremy had 2 brains,,,,,,," LOL

Casino_Royale

Couple of text messages from middle-class Labour supporter friends this morning..

The thing they're most annoyed about is the maximum salary cap. They've cottoned on to it *very* quickly.

malcolmg

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, unsurprising. A natural reaction to ever more power flowing to everywhere Not-England through devolution and the kickback against multi-culturalism.

Be nice if we got an English Parliament, but I can't see it happening anytime soon.

We don't need an English Parliament.

We already have a de facto English parliament

Scott_P

@jessicaelgot: Corbyn says comparisons to Trump are "more than slightly bizarre"

@youngvulgarian: YOUR OWN TEAM BRIEFED THAT OUT JEREMY, YOUR OWN TEAM twitter.com/jessicaelgot/s…

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

ROFL

It is an 84% book by itself.

34 0.029
26 0.038
17 0.059
13 0.077
1.57 0.63

0.84

isam

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

ROFL

It is an 84% book by itself.

Any value?!

Are they the worst prices in the history of bookmaking or am I missing something?? @Tissue_Price ???

Tissue_Price

I think we have to entertain the idea that Corbyn has been set up here [by Milne & McDonnell, presumably].

Cui bono?

Pulpstar

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

ROFL

It is an 84% book by itself.

Any value?

Dunno I've just backed them all with the profit on the 4-7.

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

I think we have to entertain the idea that Corbyn has been set up here [by Milne & McDonnell, presumably].

Cui bono?

Diane Abbott and Richard Burgon.

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

ROFL

It is an 84% book by itself.

34 0.029
26 0.038
17 0.059
13 0.077
1.57 0.63

0.84

DO they settle on 1 January 2018 or will they wait?

Sandpit

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

ROFL

It is an 84% book by itself.

34 0.029
26 0.038
17 0.059
13 0.077
1.57 0.63

0.84

Ha, that's funny, shame I cant get on with them from the sandpit.

I guess if I send someone to a shop to bet on all the possibilities, they'll probably smell a rat and ruin it for everyone else. Good luck to everyone else filling their boots!

Tissue_Price

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

ROFL

It is an 84% book by itself.

Any value?!

Are they the worst prices in the history of bookmaking or am I missing something?? @Tissue_Price ???

The only issue is that over-broke books are pretty palpable. God knows what they're doing.

TGOHF

Fallon being the champion of unlimited immigration perhaps puts a cap on his potential % support and geographically limits any potential gains.

I guess when your MPs can fit in a transit van then that probably isn't limiting your ambition that much...

Morris_Dancer

Some say Corbyn's younger brother Jeff works on Paddy Power's odds.

malcolmg

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: Corbyn tells me plans to reduce exploitation in work place will 'probably' reduce immigration but he still doesn't think levels are too high

He's managing to turn a potentially attractive new policy into a negative.

Sean, Did you manage to agree a frame on your £10K bet.

OllyT

TheScreamingEagles said:

It is going excellently, given the events of today, just imagine how much fun a six week long general election campaign with Jeremy Corbyn front and centre will be.

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818748173850214401

He won't be there. One of the most significant comments last year was McCluskey saying that Corbyn will have to consider his options if the poll ratings don't improve. Tories have convinced themselves he will still be there because they want him to still be there.

I don't think a Tory majority in 2020 is nailed on and have bet accordingly. Brexit turning sour, May dithering, Lib Dems picking up 20 or 30 seats in South & South West and Labour with a new leader comfortably holding its own seats and even picking up a few.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. T, I think that's possible. However, worth noting that Labour dithered and faffed so much that when they had late doubts about Miliband, they'd run out of road. Obviously, they're more openly antagonistic towards Corbyn, but the deed still needs t be done.

Pulpstar

Tissue_Price said:

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

ROFL

It is an 84% book by itself.

Any value?!

Are they the worst prices in the history of bookmaking or am I missing something?? @Tissue_Price ???

The only issue is that over-broke books are pretty palpable. God knows what they're doing.

The 4-7 makes a 100% book with Ladbrokes though, so that isn't a palp by any stretch.

david_herdson

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:

Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met:
1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU.
2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU.
3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met:
a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or
b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed.
4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.

Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?

Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.

PlatoSaid

For PB slapheads - you're winning

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3978100/The-benefits-going-BALD-Men-hair-appear-intelligent-educated-honest.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/jessbowie/status/818773515440635904

Pulpstar

Paddy has tied up with Betfair though, so its probably the same geniuses that were sorting the US POTUS turnout market pricing up the books.

John_M

OllyT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It is going excellently, given the events of today, just imagine how much fun a six week long general election campaign with Jeremy Corbyn front and centre will be.

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818748173850214401

He won't be there. One of the most significant comments last year was McCluskey saying that Corbyn will have to consider his options if the poll ratings don't improve. Tories have convinced themselves he will still be there because they want him to still be there.

I don't think a Tory majority in 2020 is nailed on and have bet accordingly. Brexit turning sour, May dithering, Lib Dems picking up 20 or 30 seats in South & South West and Labour with a new leader comfortably holding its own seats and even picking up a few.

He'll be there because there is no formal mechanism to remove him. They tried, remember? Even if the unions were to threaten to remove or reduce funding, Corbyn could attempt a direct appeal for finance via his cultists.

I do agree about the dangers of hubris. A Tory majority should be nailed on, but the Conservatives are perfectly capable of shooting themselves in both feet.

Alanbrooke

SeanT said:

malcolmg said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: Corbyn tells me plans to reduce exploitation in work place will 'probably' reduce immigration but he still doesn't think levels are too high

He's managing to turn a potentially attractive new policy into a negative.

Sean, Did you manage to agree a frame on your £10K bet.

Not yet. Negotiations continue. Won't give a running commentary. Etc....

we demand to know Mrs May, and you must first get it approved by the PB Parliament or we'll take you to court

TheScreamingEagles

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:

Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met:
1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU.
2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU.
3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met:
a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or
b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed.
4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.

Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?

Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.

My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are

1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression
2) World War III
3) A global pandemic
4) A zombie apocalypse
5) The rapture
6) A Carrington event

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. T, I think that's possible. However, worth noting that Labour dithered and faffed so much that when they had late doubts about Miliband, they'd run out of road. Obviously, they're more openly antagonistic towards Corbyn, but the deed still needs t be done.

Corbyn is there until he decides he's had enough of the job, I guess the question is will he go once the polls drop below 20% and hundreds of councillors are losing seats, or will he hang on until the election in 2019 or 2020. Personally I think the latter.

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

ROFL

It is an 84% book by itself.

Any value?!

Are they the worst prices in the history of bookmaking or am I missing something?? @Tissue_Price ???

The only issue is that over-broke books are pretty palpable. God knows what they're doing.

The 4-7 makes a 100% book with Ladbrokes though, so that isn't a palp by any stretch.

Not sure I follow all the technicalities here, but Paddy is a singles only bet. Otherwise what an earner.

MarkHopkins

Casino_Royale said:

Couple of text messages from middle-class Labour supporter friends this morning..

The thing they're most annoyed about is the maximum salary cap. They've cottoned on to it *very* quickly.

Corbyn really is stupid. If he'd targeted those top executives in publicly quoted companies who are taking the p*** with their salaries, he would get support. Talking about entertainers like footballers (who are liked, if overpaid) and general max salaries will just push people away.

AlastairMeeks

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

rottenborough

OllyT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It is going excellently, given the events of today, just imagine how much fun a six week long general election campaign with Jeremy Corbyn front and centre will be.

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818748173850214401

He won't be there. One of the most significant comments last year was McCluskey saying that Corbyn will have to consider his options if the poll ratings don't improve. Tories have convinced themselves he will still be there because they want him to still be there.

I don't think a Tory majority in 2020 is nailed on and have bet accordingly. Brexit turning sour, May dithering, Lib Dems picking up 20 or 30 seats in South & South West and Labour with a new leader comfortably holding its own seats and even picking up a few.

You have forgotten the Diane Abbot factor :-)

FrancisUrquhart

Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.

TOPPING

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: Corbyn tells me plans to reduce exploitation in work place will 'probably' reduce immigration but he still doesn't think levels are too high

He's managing to turn a potentially attractive new policy into a negative.

You do realise that your bet has ensured the one thing you expressed a desire not to happen on PB.

Constant, and I mean constant discussion of the EU and whether we will, are about to, or just did leave it.

Edit: Hurrah!

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818775321784811520

PlatoSaid

John_M said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

English patriotism is on the rise at the expense of a sense of British identity, with voters in England increasingly likely to describe themselves as solely English, according to research.

The studyfound that almost a fifth of people describe themselves as English not British, up 5% from 2015, with more than a third of those surveyed describing themselves as either solely English or more English than British.

The YouGov data showed that the number of people who described themselves solely as British fell in 2016 from a year earlier. Last year just 18% of those surveyed said they felt only British or more British than English.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/10/english-patriotism-on-the-rise-research-shows?CMP=share_btn_tw

I don't understand this whole issue with national identity.

I was born English and will die English. I don't see I had much choice in the matter, given my Mother had the poor taste to give birth to me into terribly unfashionable Burton-on-Trent.

My national identity is extremely strong as an emotion. I'm guessing it comes from my teachers mostly in the late 70s/early 80s who were mostly ex-colonial types - they were very proud of our history/had lived all over the world and gave us first hand personal accounts of life in Africa, the Caribbean, India et al.

matt

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

My tax bills would support that analysis.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/telegraphnews/status/818775163466457093

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

Surely Jezza's Luvvies will just become even more hypocritical, complaining loudly and publicly about inequality and supporting the wage cap, while keeping their own millions offshore or in trusts?

Pulpstar

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

What does "disposable" income actually mean. Is that before or after food and/or rent, bills etc ?

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.

Even better. Hunt has been saved on the NHS 'wrong type of patients' in A&E front.

Scott_P

@wallaceme: The Government might be having a bad week if the Opposition wasn't run with all the poise of a drunk rhino in a ball pool.

Philip_Thompson

Mike - Do you honestly think Labour will be better served competing with the Lib Dems to be continuity Remain instead of accepting the referendum result and providing their vision of Leave?

Didn't the vast majority of "middle England" Tory/Lab marginal constituencies back Leave?

Seems that any Labour leader (even one infinitely more plausible than Corbyn) is caught between a rock and a hard place of either giving a gift to Farron or a gift to May. Given that Labour oppose the Tories more than they oppose the Lib Dems a gift to Farron seems to be the right and inevitable decision.

rottenborough

MarkHopkins said:

Casino_Royale said:

Couple of text messages from middle-class Labour supporter friends this morning..

The thing they're most annoyed about is the maximum salary cap. They've cottoned on to it *very* quickly.

Corbyn really is stupid. If he'd targeted those top executives in publicly quoted companies who are taking the p*** with their salaries, he would get support. Talking about entertainers like footballers (who are liked, if overpaid) and general max salaries will just push people away.

Even if it has traction as an idea. Why the hell do it today, when NHS (the one good thing you have in your pocket) is across most newspapers?

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

@wallaceme: The Government might be having a bad week if the Opposition wasn't run with all the poise of a drunk rhino in a ball pool.

Rhinoist.

Sandpit

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

That's a great graph, showing the positive impact of increased income tax allowances and minimum wage increases is higher than the negative impact of tax credit withdrawal.

Credit to George Osborne!

FrancisUrquhart

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

Surely Jezza's Luvvies will just become even more hypocritical, complaining about inequality and supporting the wage cap, while keeping their own millions offshore or in trusts?

Good point...who could forget labours celebrity poster boy at the last GE & his families hypocrisy over tax.

Philip_Thompson

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.

Even better. Hunt has been saved on the NHS 'wrong type of patients' in A&E front.

I don't understand the furore of the suggestion that "non-urgent" patients may not be seen in A&E in four hours. It was always my thought that A&E was for urgent cases only and that non-urgent cases should go to their GP or a pharmacy or whatever else is appropriate.

So why not just say if you go to A&E with a non-urgent issue you will be sent home with instructions to see the right person rather than seen in more than four hours?

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818775321784811520

looks like shes been on a heavy night out

Casino_Royale

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/818775321784811520

looks like shes been on a heavy night out

Bet she wishes Boris had driven her home now

PlatoSaid

FrancisUrquhart said:

Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.

It really is most entertaining. To everyone who isn't on fat cat banker millions - it's a straight tax on success.

I'm sure Benedict Cumberbatch or Michael Sheen or rich business Labour donors love it as much as Vince's Mansion Tax constituents.

TheWhiteRabbit

Angela Rayner MP Verified account 
‏@AngelaRayner
Post Office close&franchise further 37 Crown offices,losing around 300 staff,and will cut 127 financial specialists, price of privatisation

Does she realise the Post Office is still in state hands?!

TOPPING

Philip_Thompson said:

Mike - Do you honestly think Labour will be better served competing with the Lib Dems to be continuity Remain instead of accepting the referendum result and providing their vision of Leave?

Didn't the vast majority of "middle England" Tory/Lab marginal constituencies back Leave?

Seems that any Labour leader (even one infinitely more plausible than Corbyn) is caught between a rock and a hard place of either giving a gift to Farron or a gift to May. Given that Labour oppose the Tories more than they oppose the Lib Dems a gift to Farron seems to be the right and inevitable decision.

It's a perfectly valid strategy and the message has the benefit of being unambiguous vs Lab/Cons all over the place on it.

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.

rcs1000

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:

Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met:
1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU.
2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU.
3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met:
a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or
b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed.
4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.

Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?

Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.

My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are

1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression
2) World War III
3) A global pandemic
4) A zombie apocalypse
5) The rapture
6) A Carrington event

I thought Brexit was The Rapture.

FrancisUrquhart

Well the last 24hrs of jez reboot has gone down like a doorstep visit from Nigel farage with my jezzas supporting "friends" on social media.

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:

Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met:
1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU.
2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU.
3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met:
a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or
b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed.
4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.

Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?

Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.

My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are

1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression
2) World War III
3) A global pandemic
4) A zombie apocalypse
5) The rapture
6) A Carrington event

I thought Brexit was The Rapture.

Depends on your viewpoint, Brexit is the The Book of Revelation for some.

Alanbrooke

PlatoSaid said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.

It really is most entertaining. To everyone who isn't on fat cat banker millions - it's a straight tax on success.

I'm sure Benedict Cumberbatch or Michael Sheen or rich business Labour donors love it as much as Vince's Mansion Tax constituents.

Ah yes, but havent all those luvvies got tax accountants so that only the little people pay

FrancisUrquhart

Link says it all...

https://order-order.com/2017/01/10/mosley-im-no-longer-fascist-im-now-labour-member/

rcs1000

SeanT said:

Snapchat to set up their new international HQ in London. "Despite Brexit"

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/10/snapchat-snap-inc-international-hub-uk

The true test will be if they actually pay taxes here.

rottenborough

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Lol, I turn sky news on to see jahadi jez proposing a wage cap. Aside from it being idiotic, That is Charlotte church type celebs off the list of jez supporters.

And with brilliant news management knocked the anti-immigration move out of the headlines.

Even better. Hunt has been saved on the NHS 'wrong type of patients' in A&E front.

I don't understand the furore of the suggestion that "non-urgent" patients may not be seen in A&E in four hours. It was always my thought that A&E was for urgent cases only and that non-urgent cases should go to their GP or a pharmacy or whatever else is appropriate.

So why not just say if you go to A&E with a non-urgent issue you will be sent home with instructions to see the right person rather than seen in more than four hours?

Perfectly sensible imho. Problem is, how to operate such a system? GPs in the A&E who triage?

There was a consultant A&E guy on TV last night, saying that they had spent 20 years trying to educate the public not to come to A&E if not urgent and it has failed utterly, so something new has to be tried.

Tissue_Price

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

See also the UK entry here:

https://twitter.com/janzilinsky/status/816880633045721089

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

Link says it all...

https://order-order.com/2017/01/10/mosley-im-no-longer-fascist-im-now-labour-member/

Well his father (grandfather?) was a Labour MP for a while, before getting disgruntled with lack of progress iirc.

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Snapchat to set up their new international HQ in London. "Despite Brexit"

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/10/snapchat-snap-inc-international-hub-uk

The true test will be if they actually pay taxes here.

Have to become profitable first...haven't they just had to raise a load more money?

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

Well the last 24hrs of jez reboot has gone down like a doorstep visit from Nigel farage with my jezzas supporting "friends" on social media.

Which bit of reboot has gone badly?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

Further to my suggestion of terms for the bet between Seant and williamglenn, I've tried to refine it further. Would the following be acceptable:

Brexit is the process of the UK withdrawing from its membership of the EU. It shall be complete when the following criteria are all met:
1. The UK government has served notice of its intention to withdraw from the EU under Article 50(2) of the TEU.
2. No revocation of the notification detailed in (1) shall have been given by the UK and accepted by the EU.
3. The exit date, as defined in Article 50(3) of the TEU, shall have passed i.e. at least one of the following sub-criteria shall have been met:
a. Two years shall have elapsed from the notification in (1) without a withdrawal agreement as defined in Article 50(3) being agreed, or
b. A withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK shall have been agreed and the date on which that agreement takes effect shall have passed.
4. No agreement shall have been reached by which the UK retains continuous membership of the EU at the conclusion of the withdrawal process, due to the UK agreeing a new membership with the EU to begin at the moment the old membership expires.

Which side of the bet would you rather be on btw ?

Seant's, by a long way. I think that a 2019 departure is at least a 70% chance.

My piece for Sunday lists the only things that will stop Brexit happening, they are

1) A financial crash on a par with the great depression
2) World War III
3) A global pandemic
4) A zombie apocalypse
5) The rapture
6) A Carrington event

I thought Brexit was The Rapture.

Depends on your viewpoint, Brexit is the The Book of Revelation for some.

It maybe the 'End of Times' to others

TheWhiteRabbit

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.

Interestingly the top 1% have done well - the other 19% of the top quintile (who probably think of themselves as middle earners) much less so

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

Link says it all...

https://order-order.com/2017/01/10/mosley-im-no-longer-fascist-im-now-labour-member/

Someone should ask him if it's reasonable that a high profile member of a political party should be responsible for funding the press regulator?

isam

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Publicity Shy Paddy Power have a market on Corbyn's exit date.

I'm too tired to work out if there's a potential arb or value here.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889

ROFL

It is an 84% book by itself.

Any value?!

Are they the worst prices in the history of bookmaking or am I missing something?? @Tissue_Price ???

The only issue is that over-broke books are pretty palpable. God knows what they're doing.

The 4-7 makes a 100% book with Ladbrokes though, so that isn't a palp by any stretch.

Not sure I follow all the technicalities here, but Paddy is a singles only bet. Otherwise what an earner.

Basically if you lay out £84 on that Paddy Power market, you are guaranteed to win £16 whatever happens.

The most obvious value bet in the history of bookmaking, impossible to miss. The equivalent of someone offering 11/8 Heads 11/8 Tails on the toss of a coin

glw

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Not a story that is commonly told:

https://twitter.com/conortdarcy/status/818752903276097536

I expect this chart will have to make a few reappearances, given that it conflicts with the narrative of many on here.

Not sure I get that. Why is baselined to 1977 when the chart starts at 2007?

Even if it's a typo it does undermine confidence in the data.

Here's a full chart up to 2014/2015, over the longer term the picture isn't as rosy as the previous image implies.