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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters Podcast: Labour’s re-brand & why 2017 w

SystemSystem Posts: 11,682
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters Podcast: Labour’s re-brand & why 2017 won’t be all plain sailing for Mrs. May

On the first PB/Polling Matters podcast of 2017 Keiran discusses the future of the Labour Party with the General Secretary of the Fabian Society Andrew Harrop. They discuss Corbyn’s recent rebrand as a left-wing populist and Labour’s mounting problems including Scotland, Brexit and the daunting electoral math faced in Westminster ahead of the presumed General Election in 2020 (and what to do about it). Keiran also takes us through some recent polling and explains why he thinks 2017 will be a tough year for Theresa May, regardless of the Labour Party.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited January 2017
    Hillary was trumped ! Was he a Russian agent all along ?

    http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/donald-trump-was-bailed-out-bankruptcy-russia-crime-bosses

    No wonder he would not publish his tax returns.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Morning. Good to see the podcast back for 2017, thanks Keiran and the team.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    On the Trump story, is it only me who thinks the most worrying part is that the President stayed in a hotel room in Moscow that was known to be full of FSB bugs?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sandpit said:

    On the Trump story, is it only me who thinks the most worrying part is that the President stayed in a hotel room in Moscow that was known to be full of FSB bugs?

    I am sure the SS zapped all the rooms.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the Trump story, is it only me who thinks the most worrying part is that the President stayed in a hotel room in Moscow that was known to be full of FSB bugs?

    I am sure the SS zapped all the rooms.
    Maybe it was known to be full of bugs because the SS found them before Obama's stay. The question is, after how many bugs would you say you didn't like this hotel and wanted a different one?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,998
    Sandpit said:

    On the Trump story, is it only me who thinks the most worrying part is that the President stayed in a hotel room in Moscow that was known to be full of FSB bugs?

    AIUI bugs can be circumvented to a certain extent, either by removal or other means. Although the capabilities of the best bugs are unknown to us.

    There might also have been a lack of top hotels in Moscow where the secret service thought the president would be safe, and the alternative would have been the embassy.

    As an aside, where does the prez stay when in London?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,998
    One problem Trump may have is that I would be surprised if he had not, at some time, had contact with Russian spooks. Given his role and prominence, he is the sort of person they would look into, even if informally and without his knowledge.

    I bet prominent people here in the UK will have as well. I mean, if they set a honeytrap for OGH ... ;)
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the Trump story, is it only me who thinks the most worrying part is that the President stayed in a hotel room in Moscow that was known to be full of FSB bugs?

    AIUI bugs can be circumvented to a certain extent, either by removal or other means. Although the capabilities of the best bugs are unknown to us.

    There might also have been a lack of top hotels in Moscow where the secret service thought the president would be safe, and the alternative would have been the embassy.

    As an aside, where does the prez stay when in London?
    I can imagine the best of the FSB enjoying the challenge of getting bugs in the President's room that his security don't find!

    In the UK, he usually stays at either the US Embassy or Buckingham Palace, depending on whether it's a business or a State visit.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    JosiasJessop said:

    One problem Trump may have is that I would be surprised if he had not, at some time, had contact with Russian spooks. Given his role and prominence, he is the sort of person they would look into, even if informally and without his knowledge.

    I bet prominent people here in the UK will have as well. I mean, if they set a honeytrap for OGH ... ;)

    FSB (and our own MI5 and MI6) almost certainly have large files on Trump and other prominent businessmen with interests around he world. It's already been seen with stories starting to leak about Rex Tillerson.

    Any international businessman will have greased the right palms to get a contract signed in various parts of the world, it's just the way these places do business.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672
    Sandpit said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the Trump story, is it only me who thinks the most worrying part is that the President stayed in a hotel room in Moscow that was known to be full of FSB bugs?

    AIUI bugs can be circumvented to a certain extent, either by removal or other means. Although the capabilities of the best bugs are unknown to us.

    There might also have been a lack of top hotels in Moscow where the secret service thought the president would be safe, and the alternative would have been the embassy.

    As an aside, where does the prez stay when in London?
    In the UK, he usually stays at either the US Embassy or Buckingham Palace, depending on whether it's a business or a State visit.
    Winfield House surely? Not that monstrosity on Grosvenor Square?

    https://uk.usembassy.gov/our-relationship/our-ambassador/ambassadors-residence/
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    edited January 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    Sandpit said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the Trump story, is it only me who thinks the most worrying part is that the President stayed in a hotel room in Moscow that was known to be full of FSB bugs?

    AIUI bugs can be circumvented to a certain extent, either by removal or other means. Although the capabilities of the best bugs are unknown to us.

    There might also have been a lack of top hotels in Moscow where the secret service thought the president would be safe, and the alternative would have been the embassy.

    As an aside, where does the prez stay when in London?
    In the UK, he usually stays at either the US Embassy or Buckingham Palace, depending on whether it's a business or a State visit.
    Winfield House surely? Not that monstrosity on Grosvenor Square?

    https://uk.usembassy.gov/our-relationship/our-ambassador/ambassadors-residence/
    Ha yes, I can't imagine he'd want to stay at Grosvenor Square.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    Sandpit said:

    On the Trump story, is it only me who thinks the most worrying part is that the President stayed in a hotel room in Moscow that was known to be full of FSB bugs?

    He travels with a special tent to pitch in the hotel room. True fact.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Judging by the early comments the podcast not garnering a huge amount of interest. :)
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,998
    felix said:

    Judging by the early comments the podcast not garnering a huge amount of interest. :)

    It'll have to wait until I go for a walk / run later. ;)
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    From header:

    "... and the daunting electoral math faced in Westminster...".

    FFS, it's Maths. We're not in NAFTA yet.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,998
    Sandpit said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    One problem Trump may have is that I would be surprised if he had not, at some time, had contact with Russian spooks. Given his role and prominence, he is the sort of person they would look into, even if informally and without his knowledge.

    I bet prominent people here in the UK will have as well. I mean, if they set a honeytrap for OGH ... ;)

    FSB (and our own MI5 and MI6) almost certainly have large files on Trump and other prominent businessmen with interests around he world. It's already been seen with stories starting to leak about Rex Tillerson.

    Any international businessman will have greased the right palms to get a contract signed in various parts of the world, it's just the way these places do business.
    And there's the danger if Trump's done anything like it.

    I wonder how much the FSB had on Obama before he came to power? I'm guessing not much as he was a bit of a surprise candidate. Unless, of course, they'd followed OGH's early tip. ;)
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672
    After yesterday's 'long read' of Cummings, today brings the Trump allegations:

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3259984-Trump-Intelligence-Allegations.html

    Now of course its impossible to say whether they're true....could just be further Kremlin black arts - or wicked Western Intelligence attempts to malign the wholly innocent and above reproach Russians......
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    One problem Trump may have is that I would be surprised if he had not, at some time, had contact with Russian spooks. Given his role and prominence, he is the sort of person they would look into, even if informally and without his knowledge.

    I bet prominent people here in the UK will have as well. I mean, if they set a honeytrap for OGH ... ;)

    FSB (and our own MI5 and MI6) almost certainly have large files on Trump and other prominent businessmen with interests around he world. It's already been seen with stories starting to leak about Rex Tillerson.

    Any international businessman will have greased the right palms to get a contract signed in various parts of the world, it's just the way these places do business.
    And there's the danger if Trump's done anything like it.

    I wonder how much the FSB had on Obama before he came to power? I'm guessing not much as he was a bit of a surprise candidate. Unless, of course, they'd followed OGH's early tip. ;)
    Yes, there will be a huge contrast with Obama. The incumbent was probably the cleanest president for a century, hadn't been to Washington at all and was pretty much unknown outside Illinois before he ran for the top job. Contrast with Trump, who has always been controversial and certainly hasn't been ultra careful in his business dealings as might be expected of someone running for high office.

    There will be loads of skeletons in Trump's closet for those who wish to look hard enough for them, but he does have an uncanny ability to brush most of his past dalliances under the carpet. Unless they find a direct link between Trump himself and the Russian govt in a way thats unambiguously treasonous, he'll probably be okay. Depends how much he offends the Washington Republicans I guess.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    0
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the Trump story, is it only me who thinks the most worrying part is that the President stayed in a hotel room in Moscow that was known to be full of FSB bugs?

    AIUI bugs can be circumvented to a certain extent, either by removal or other means. Although the capabilities of the best bugs are unknown to us.

    There might also have been a lack of top hotels in Moscow where the secret service thought the president would be safe, and the alternative would have been the embassy.

    As an aside, where does the prez stay when in London?
    Winfield House.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,998
    Millwall football club in trouble?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-38577838
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    Bromptonaut said:

    From header:

    "... and the daunting electoral math faced in Westminster...".

    FFS, it's Maths. We're not in NAFTA yet.

    Whilst I share your outrage, some mitigation, Keiran's wife is American, and he spends a fair bit of time in America.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Just catching up on the Kempton Park story. Many a good day spent there in the past. :(
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-4105574/Jockey-Club-announces-proposals-shut-Kempton-Park-2021.html
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    So any more updates on Watersportsgate?
  • Options
    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    One problem Trump may have is that I would be surprised if he had not, at some time, had contact with Russian spooks. Given his role and prominence, he is the sort of person they would look into, even if informally and without his knowledge.

    I bet prominent people here in the UK will have as well. I mean, if they set a honeytrap for OGH ... ;)

    FSB (and our own MI5 and MI6) almost certainly have large files on Trump and other prominent businessmen with interests around he world. It's already been seen with stories starting to leak about Rex Tillerson.

    Any international businessman will have greased the right palms to get a contract signed in various parts of the world, it's just the way these places do business.
    And there's the danger if Trump's done anything like it.

    I wonder how much the FSB had on Obama before he came to power? I'm guessing not much as he was a bit of a surprise candidate. Unless, of course, they'd followed OGH's early tip. ;)
    OGH tipped Obama?
    You would have thought that he might of mentioned it before.


  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,998
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    One problem Trump may have is that I would be surprised if he had not, at some time, had contact with Russian spooks. Given his role and prominence, he is the sort of person they would look into, even if informally and without his knowledge.

    I bet prominent people here in the UK will have as well. I mean, if they set a honeytrap for OGH ... ;)

    FSB (and our own MI5 and MI6) almost certainly have large files on Trump and other prominent businessmen with interests around he world. It's already been seen with stories starting to leak about Rex Tillerson.

    Any international businessman will have greased the right palms to get a contract signed in various parts of the world, it's just the way these places do business.
    And there's the danger if Trump's done anything like it.

    I wonder how much the FSB had on Obama before he came to power? I'm guessing not much as he was a bit of a surprise candidate. Unless, of course, they'd followed OGH's early tip. ;)
    OGH tipped Obama?
    You would have thought that he might of mentioned it before.
    He has been modestly quiet about it.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    These latest rumours about Donald Trump are wholly unsurprising. Only those who chose not to look couldn't see the contours of this story. The enthusiasm of other prominent Putin-boosters would also be worthy of close scrutiny.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,398
    CarlottaVance said:

    After yesterday's 'long read' of Cummings, today brings the Trump allegations:

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3259984-Trump-Intelligence-Allegations.html

    Now of course its impossible to say whether they're true....could just be further Kremlin black arts - or wicked Western Intelligence attempts to malign the wholly innocent and above reproach Russians......

    It's worth remembering that the spy world has a sump full of made up rubbish that someone is always trying to flog. Just like the news media world - and in fact there is crossover.

    The stories could be true. Or they could be someone with confirmation bias buying a folder of garbage from a weird character. Think the Bush National Guard records, the October Surprise, The Zinoviev letter, 45 minutes till WMD etc etc.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    AlastairMeeks said:

    These latest rumours about Donald Trump are wholly unsurprising. Only those who chose not to look couldn't see the contours of this story. The enthusiasm of other prominent Putin-boosters would also be worthy of close scrutiny.

    Wonder what they've got on Marine Le Pen.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    AlastairMeeks said:

    These latest rumours about Donald Trump are wholly unsurprising. Only those who chose not to look couldn't see the contours of this story. The enthusiasm of other prominent Putin-boosters would also be worthy of close scrutiny.

    What are you implying about a number of posters here....
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    matt said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    These latest rumours about Donald Trump are wholly unsurprising. Only those who chose not to look couldn't see the contours of this story. The enthusiasm of other prominent Putin-boosters would also be worthy of close scrutiny.

    What are you implying about a number of posters here....
    The last time I personally assured a poster that I was not suggesting that she was a Russian troll, she took the most frightful offence. I won't be making that mistake again.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    What the .....
    Fifteen year old girl charged with murder, after seven year old girl stabbed to death in York :(
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/10/teenager-arrested-death-7-year-old-girl-york/
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Yet another link between Brexit and urine
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Good morning, everyone.

    Damned windy.

    F1: in expected news, Lowe has left Mercedes. Allison will join the team come the summer, when his gardening leave from Ferrari ends.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38571408
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,097
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So any more updates on Watersportsgate?

    Those comparisons with Hitler aren't looking so far fetched now..
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So any more updates on Watersportsgate?

    Piss take surely.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Shame the FBI was too busy "investigating" Hillary.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    matt said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    These latest rumours about Donald Trump are wholly unsurprising. Only those who chose not to look couldn't see the contours of this story. The enthusiasm of other prominent Putin-boosters would also be worthy of close scrutiny.

    What are you implying about a number of posters here....
    That y0kel has taken an early lead in the PotY stakes?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    *raises an eyebrow*

    Have I missed some sort of horrendous story?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672
    @EliotHiggins The Trump inauguration team is currently working out the logistics of returning large numbers of golden confetti cannons at short notice.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Farage and Trump are close.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Maths. We are not American.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Morris_Dancer said:

    *raises an eyebrow*

    Have I missed some sort of horrendous story?

    Donald Trump was elected POTUS.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672
    Some of the memos were circulating as far back as last summer. What has changed since then is that US intelligence agencies have now checked out the former British intelligence operative and his vast network throughout Europe and find him and his sources to be credible enough to include some of the information in the presentations to the President and President-elect a few days ago.

    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/01/10/politics/donald-trump-intelligence-report-russia/index.html
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Relevant to Mr Trump's problems this morning...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Jcxbq25vpE
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Damned windy.

    F1: in expected news, Lowe has left Mercedes. Allison will join the team come the summer, when his gardening leave from Ferrari ends.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38571408

    Ooh, not entirely unexpected but a shuffle of key technical staff across F1 will be the result. Great to see James Allison heading to Mercedes, hopefully they'll announce Bottas sometime soon as I've got a bet on him and will use the proceeds for a ticket for Bahrain.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited January 2017
    I imagine the President-elect is seriously pissed on by these allegations.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    Morris_Dancer said:

    *raises an eyebrow*

    Have I missed some sort of horrendous story?

    Yes, Donald Trump hired prostitutes to urinate on him, he told them to 'humiliate me like Hannibal at Zama'

    http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/twitter-is-drowning-in-a-goldenshower/news-story/17f297c7c86510cf986011201ab88d85
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    JohnO said:

    I imagine the President-elect is seriously pissed on by these allegations.

    He's no longer PEOTUS, he's PEEOTUS
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited January 2017
    Re the Trump gossip - I noticed this in the Cummings epic https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/ It's about 60% the way in.

    (NB. Whoever leaked the Hilary email story was probably doing something similar. This played into the media obsession with scandal and process such that they spent a ridiculous amount of time on it despite probably 80% of them wanting Hilary to win. It shows how powerfully the media is in the grip of dynamics they rarely reflect on themselves. Putin’s communication maestro, Surkov, uses these sorts of tricks all the time. Cf. Peter Pomerantsev’s great book, a must read for any MP before they pontificate on Putin’s mafia government.)

    Anyone read it?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    PlatoSaid said:

    Re the Trump gossip - I noticed this in the Cummings epic

    (NB. Whoever leaked the Hilary email story was probably doing something similar. This played into the media obsession with scandal and process such that they spent a ridiculous amount of time on it despite probably 80% of them wanting Hilary to win. It shows how powerfully the media is in the grip of dynamics they rarely reflect on themselves. Putin’s communication maestro, Surkov, uses these sorts of tricks all the time. Cf. Peter Pomerantsev’s great book, a must read for any MP before they pontificate on Putin’s mafia government.)

    Anyone read it?

    On my desk waiting to be read. Looks v interesting.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    *raises an eyebrow*

    Have I missed some sort of horrendous story?

    Donald Trump hired prostitutes to urinate on him
    To be fair, the document says he asked them to piss on the bed the Obamas had slept in in front of him rather than on him.....

    What's Mark Oaten doing these days?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Sandpit said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    One problem Trump may have is that I would be surprised if he had not, at some time, had contact with Russian spooks. Given his role and prominence, he is the sort of person they would look into, even if informally and without his knowledge.

    I bet prominent people here in the UK will have as well. I mean, if they set a honeytrap for OGH ... ;)

    FSB (and our own MI5 and MI6) almost certainly have large files on Trump and other prominent businessmen with interests around he world. It's already been seen with stories starting to leak about Rex Tillerson.

    Any international businessman will have greased the right palms to get a contract signed in various parts of the world, it's just the way these places do business.
    And there's the danger if Trump's done anything like it.

    I wonder how much the FSB had on Obama before he came to power? I'm guessing not much as he was a bit of a surprise candidate. Unless, of course, they'd followed OGH's early tip. ;)
    Yes, there will be a huge contrast with Obama. The incumbent was probably the cleanest president for a century, hadn't been to Washington at all and was pretty much unknown outside Illinois before he ran for the top job. Contrast with Trump, who has always been controversial and certainly hasn't been ultra careful in his business dealings as might be expected of someone running for high office.

    There will be loads of skeletons in Trump's closet for those who wish to look hard enough for them, but he does have an uncanny ability to brush most of his past dalliances under the carpet. Unless they find a direct link between Trump himself and the Russian govt in a way thats unambiguously treasonous, he'll probably be okay. Depends how much he offends the Washington Republicans I guess.
    Trump is basically an independent who used the Republican Party as a vehicle to become President, if Washington Republicans become too difficult he will throw them under a bus in the 2018 mid terms as will his supporters
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Eagles, could've been worse. He could've asked them make him scream, "I'm the Queen of Bithynia!"

    Mr. Sandpit, cars are being revealed in the last week of February, Bottas has visited the Mercedes factory and I'd expect an announcement fairly soon. Surprised it hasn't happened already, really.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    This is all very reminiscent of the night I came back to the flat around 11.30pm, went on twitter and PB and it dawned on me I'd have to write a thread about David Cameron allegedly sticking his dangly bits inside a dead pig's head.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    *raises an eyebrow*

    Have I missed some sort of horrendous story?

    Donald Trump hired prostitutes to urinate on him
    To be fair, the document says he asked them to piss on the bed the Obamas had slept in in front of him rather than on him.....

    What's Mark Oaten doing these days?
    I know. Drain the bed.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    This tweet made me chuckle

    ‪@DylanByers: Coming soon: Robust debate on whether websites should publish unverified reports from single sources claiming to be former intel officers‬
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It turns out that there is a market for a maximum wage:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/819098016317636608

    Jeremy Corbyn was onto something, even if his execution and timing was atrocious.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    rottenborough said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Re the Trump gossip - I noticed this in the Cummings epic

    (NB. Whoever leaked the Hilary email story was probably doing something similar. This played into the media obsession with scandal and process such that they spent a ridiculous amount of time on it despite probably 80% of them wanting Hilary to win. It shows how powerfully the media is in the grip of dynamics they rarely reflect on themselves. Putin’s communication maestro, Surkov, uses these sorts of tricks all the time. Cf. Peter Pomerantsev’s great book, a must read for any MP before they pontificate on Putin’s mafia government.)

    Anyone read it?

    On my desk waiting to be read. Looks v interesting.
    Ooh. Do let me know - the Russian Embassy twitter account here has been most amusing for months. I wondered who was directing it strategically.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    You are all biased. This isn't just about watersports, the point about doing it in the obamas' bed transforms it into performance art. If Tracey Emin did it you'd give her the Turner prize.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Wikileaks are going to be furious.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    One problem Trump may have is that I would be surprised if he had not, at some time, had contact with Russian spooks. Given his role and prominence, he is the sort of person they would look into, even if informally and without his knowledge.

    I bet prominent people here in the UK will have as well. I mean, if they set a honeytrap for OGH ... ;)

    FSB (and our own MI5 and MI6) almost certainly have large files on Trump and other prominent businessmen with interests around he world. It's already been seen with stories starting to leak about Rex Tillerson.

    Any international businessman will have greased the right palms to get a contract signed in various parts of the world, it's just the way these places do business.
    And there's the danger if Trump's done anything like it.

    I wonder how much the FSB had on Obama before he came to power? I'm guessing not much as he was a bit of a surprise candidate. Unless, of course, they'd followed OGH's early tip. ;)
    Yes, there will be a huge contrast with Obama. The incumbent was probably the cleanest president for a century, hadn't been to Washington at all and was pretty much unknown outside Illinois before he ran for the top job. Contrast with Trump, who has always been controversial and certainly hasn't been ultra careful in his business dealings as might be expected of someone running for high office.

    There will be loads of skeletons in Trump's closet for those who wish to look hard enough for them, but he does have an uncanny ability to brush most of his past dalliances under the carpet. Unless they find a direct link between Trump himself and the Russian govt in a way thats unambiguously treasonous, he'll probably be okay. Depends how much he offends the Washington Republicans I guess.
    Trump is basically an independent who used the Republican Party as a vehicle to become President, if Washington Republicans become too difficult he will throw them under a bus in the 2018 mid terms as will his supporters
    ... if he still has any.
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all very reminiscent of the night I came back to the flat around 11.30pm, went on twitter and PB and it dawned on me I'd have to write a thread about David Cameron allegedly sticking his dangly bits inside a dead pig's head.

    If there's to be a similar thread about Trump, fingers crossed for some piss-poor urination puns.
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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    PlatoSaid said:

    Re the Trump gossip - I noticed this in the Cummings epic https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/ It's about 60% the way in.

    (NB. Whoever leaked the Hilary email story was probably doing something similar. This played into the media obsession with scandal and process such that they spent a ridiculous amount of time on it despite probably 80% of them wanting Hilary to win. It shows how powerfully the media is in the grip of dynamics they rarely reflect on themselves. Putin’s communication maestro, Surkov, uses these sorts of tricks all the time. Cf. Peter Pomerantsev’s great book, a must read for any MP before they pontificate on Putin’s mafia government.)

    Anyone read it?

    Yes, it's a very interesting read.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all very reminiscent of the night I came back to the flat around 11.30pm, went on twitter and PB and it dawned on me I'd have to write a thread about David Cameron allegedly sticking his dangly bits inside a dead pig's head.

    It's a tough job but someone's got to do it.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Has anyone seen Mr. Slackbladder recently?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Has anyone seen Mr. Slackbladder recently?

    Here!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Corbyn wanted to relaunch himself as Trump.

    Should he be grateful he completely blew it?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    AlastairMeeks said:

    It turns out that there is a market for a maximum wage:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/819098016317636608

    Jeremy Corbyn was onto something, even if his execution and timing was atrocious.

    Labour voters support one certainly
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited January 2017
    logical_song said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    One problem Trump may have is that I would be surprised if he had not, at some time, had contact with Russian spooks. Given his role and prominence, he is the sort of person they would look into, even if informally and without his knowledge.

    I bet prominent people here in the UK will have as well. I mean, if they set a honeytrap for OGH ... ;)

    FSB (and our own MI5 and MI6) almost certainly have large files on Trump and other prominent businessmen with interests around he world. It's already been seen with stories starting to leak about Rex Tillerson.

    Any international businessman will have greased the right palms to get a contract signed in various parts of the world, it's just the way these places do business.
    And there's the danger if Trump's done anything like it.

    I wonder how much the FSB had on Obama before he came to power? I'm guessing not much as he was a bit of a surprise candidate. Unless, of course, they'd followed OGH's early tip. ;)
    Yes, there will be a huge contrast with Obama. The incumbent was probably the cleanest president for a century, hadn't been to Washington at all and was pretty much unknown outside Illinois before he ran for the top job. Contrast with Trump, who has always been controversial and certainly hasn't been ultra careful in his business dealings as might be expected of someone running for high office.

    There will be loads of skeletons in Trump's closet for those who wish to look hard enough for them, but he does have an uncanny ability to brush most of his past dalliances under the carpet. Unless they find a direct link between Trump himself and the Russian govt in a way thats unambiguously treasonous, he'll probably be okay. Depends how much he offends the Washington Republicans I guess.
    Trump is basically an independent who used the Republican Party as a vehicle to become President, if Washington Republicans become too difficult he will throw them under a bus in the 2018 mid terms as will his supporters
    ... if he still has any.
    The majority of Republican voters are now far closer to Trump than they are to the likes of Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell. Ironically a Hillary presidency would have been far better for Republican candidates than a Trump presidency which will only be good for Trump
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Slackbladder, are the rumours true that Trump has offered you the position of Chief Decorator?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Tim Stanley
    In the 1828 election, Andrew Jackson's people started a rumour that John Quincy Adams had procured an American girl to satisfy the Tsar.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,998
    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn wanted to relaunch himself as Trump.

    Should he be grateful he completely blew it?

    It would have rained on his parade.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Slackbladder, are the rumours true that Trump has offered you the position of Chief Decorator?

    I cannot confirm or deny that ;)
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Those behind the Trump golden shower story are taking the piss
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    AlastairMeeks said:

    It turns out that there is a market for a maximum wage:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/819098016317636608

    Jeremy Corbyn was onto something, even if his execution and timing was atrocious.

    Tell folks that currently, the top 1% pay 27% of all income tax. Then ask folks if there should be a maximum tax these same 1% pay. Then ask them if they want to make up the difference themselves with higher tax. (which is ACTUALLY what this twattish policy means).
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    So, I hear Trump is a little angry reading the news today. Anyway, I suppose it's better to be pissed off than pissed on...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    F1: not advocating this, but if the rumours of the Mercedes being ridiculously dominant again are true, the 5.5 on Botas (each way) for the title would still be value.

    Backed it at 26 so don't feel the need to try my hand, but it's worth considering. My own view is the only real potential rival is the Red Bull. Ferrari's enquiry about essentially FRIC-reborn harms both Mercedes and Red Bull, but (so people say) the latter more.

    Anyway, just worth considering. If you're paying attention to the testing next month, remember that the times are pretty irrelevant. The mood music is what you need to listen to.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Harry Cole
    In the list of all time greatest botched Labour relaunches, this will always take some beating: https://t.co/kTEJInj64T
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So any more updates on Watersportsgate?

    I hear trump is pissed off.. or is that on?
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    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    I love all the prognosticating and polling by the westminster circle jerk club about pretend policies that labour and corbyn havent even suggested. The sooner the whole house of cards finally collapses and all of these non-jobs are swept away to the dustbin of history the better.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Urine for a shock if you think these latest stories will damage Trump. Water off a duck's back for him at this point, no-one really thought he was a wholesome family man anyway.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    JWisemann said:

    I love all the prognosticating and polling by the westminster circle jerk club about pretend policies that labour and corbyn havent even suggested. The sooner the whole house of cards finally collapses and all of these non-jobs are swept away to the dustbin of history the better.

    Yes I too am looking forward to the final demise of Labour.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JohnO said:

    I imagine the President-elect is seriously pissed on by these allegations.

    He's no longer PEOTUS, he's PEEOTUS
    Very good TSE, one of your finer efforts
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    A view from Stephen Molyneux re golden showers

    https://youtu.be/fO1ps2A4q90
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,302
    edited January 2017
    NOTICE

    No more ridiculously weak Trump-themed puns please.

    Edit: and no, that wasn't one.
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It turns out that there is a market for a maximum wage:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/819098016317636608

    Jeremy Corbyn was onto something, even if his execution and timing was atrocious.

    Tell folks that currently, the top 1% pay 27% of all income tax. Then ask folks if there should be a maximum tax these same 1% pay. Then ask them if they want to make up the difference themselves with higher tax. (which is ACTUALLY what this twattish policy means).
    It's got nothing to do with tax. It's about the fairer distribution of profits. If poorer people earn more they won't be as dependent on tax-funded handouts from the state.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,973
    Sandpit said:

    Just catching up on the Kempton Park story. Many a good day spent there in the past. :(
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-4105574/Jockey-Club-announces-proposals-shut-Kempton-Park-2021.html

    Worth it if they get £100M though , and King George goes to Sandown. Sensible decision.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,973
    Paristonda said:

    Urine for a shock if you think these latest stories will damage Trump. Water off a duck's back for him at this point, no-one really thought he was a wholesome family man anyway.

    Exactly what more could possibly come out about him that is worse than we have seen.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,973
    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all very reminiscent of the night I came back to the flat around 11.30pm, went on twitter and PB and it dawned on me I'd have to write a thread about David Cameron allegedly sticking his dangly bits inside a dead pig's head.

    It's a tough job but someone's got to do it.
    Trump is a jessie compared to the Tory rotters
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    Essexit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all very reminiscent of the night I came back to the flat around 11.30pm, went on twitter and PB and it dawned on me I'd have to write a thread about David Cameron allegedly sticking his dangly bits inside a dead pig's head.

    If there's to be a similar thread about Trump, fingers crossed for some piss-poor urination puns.
    That's a decision for Mike.

    The saddest thing about the Cameron pig story was it was right at the end of my stint as guest editor, I had written a thread about AV which had to get bumped because I had to cover the pig story.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    oooh missed this one in the fun yesterday

    The Labour leader also called for a new top rate of income tax for those earning above £70,000, claiming it would make society fairer.

    Well, that's a pisser...........
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Re the Trump gossip - I noticed this in the Cummings epic https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/ It's about 60% the way in.

    (NB. Whoever leaked the Hilary email story was probably doing something similar. This played into the media obsession with scandal and process such that they spent a ridiculous amount of time on it despite probably 80% of them wanting Hilary to win. It shows how powerfully the media is in the grip of dynamics they rarely reflect on themselves. Putin’s communication maestro, Surkov, uses these sorts of tricks all the time. Cf. Peter Pomerantsev’s great book, a must read for any MP before they pontificate on Putin’s mafia government.)

    Anyone read it?

    Yes, it's a very interesting read.
    Just got to ...

    "The political media and how to improve it" section in that.

    Well worth reading.


  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Bromptonaut said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It turns out that there is a market for a maximum wage:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/819098016317636608

    Jeremy Corbyn was onto something, even if his execution and timing was atrocious.

    Tell folks that currently, the top 1% pay 27% of all income tax. Then ask folks if there should be a maximum tax these same 1% pay. Then ask them if they want to make up the difference themselves with higher tax. (which is ACTUALLY what this twattish policy means).
    It's got nothing to do with tax. It's about the fairer distribution of profits. If poorer people earn more they won't be as dependent on tax-funded handouts from the state.
    If only life were as simple as that
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Essexit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all very reminiscent of the night I came back to the flat around 11.30pm, went on twitter and PB and it dawned on me I'd have to write a thread about David Cameron allegedly sticking his dangly bits inside a dead pig's head.

    If there's to be a similar thread about Trump, fingers crossed for some piss-poor urination puns.
    That's a decision for Mike.

    The saddest thing about the Cameron pig story was it was right at the end of my stint as guest editor, I had written a thread about AV which had to get bumped because I had to cover the pig story.
    Now Cameron has left Number 10 (and the sound and fury of its astroturfers) what is the status of the pig story?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Bromptonaut said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It turns out that there is a market for a maximum wage:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/819098016317636608

    Jeremy Corbyn was onto something, even if his execution and timing was atrocious.

    Tell folks that currently, the top 1% pay 27% of all income tax. Then ask folks if there should be a maximum tax these same 1% pay. Then ask them if they want to make up the difference themselves with higher tax. (which is ACTUALLY what this twattish policy means).
    It's got nothing to do with tax. It's about the fairer distribution of profits. If poorer people earn more they won't be as dependent on tax-funded handouts from the state.
    "Nothing to do with tax"? Are you REALLY that simple?

    Profits are already taxed through corporation tax.

    The problem in this country is that very few remuneration packages get over-turned by the shareholders. Now, that might be because shareholders are happy to let a few extra % go to the senior management if they are doing a good job. Or it might be that they are supine and don't want to rock any boats. But changing the rules so that their remuneration package has to be approved by 75% or 85% or 95% of shareholders - that might be a more fruitful way to go.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Essexit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all very reminiscent of the night I came back to the flat around 11.30pm, went on twitter and PB and it dawned on me I'd have to write a thread about David Cameron allegedly sticking his dangly bits inside a dead pig's head.

    If there's to be a similar thread about Trump, fingers crossed for some piss-poor urination puns.
    That's a decision for Mike.

    The saddest thing about the Cameron pig story was it was right at the end of my stint as guest editor, I had written a thread about AV which had to get bumped because I had to cover the pig story.
    Now Cameron has left Number 10 (and the sound and fury of its astroturfers) what is the status of the pig story?
    An utter fabrication.

    My friend who attended the dump said there's no way one could be a member of both the Bullingdon Club and the Piers Gaveston Society.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Bromptonaut said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It turns out that there is a market for a maximum wage:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/819098016317636608

    Jeremy Corbyn was onto something, even if his execution and timing was atrocious.

    Tell folks that currently, the top 1% pay 27% of all income tax. Then ask folks if there should be a maximum tax these same 1% pay. Then ask them if they want to make up the difference themselves with higher tax. (which is ACTUALLY what this twattish policy means).
    It's got nothing to do with tax. It's about the fairer distribution of profits. If poorer people earn more they won't be as dependent on tax-funded handouts from the state.
    Which is why the government is raising minimum wages and income tax allowances, and when we leave the EU will also be discouraging the unskilled immigration which keeps wages low for the poorest.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The important thing to remember is that t doesn't matter if it is true or not. Just what people feel.

    I presume Trump felt briefly warm but then cooled rapidly.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Wednesday is the usual day for the Supreme Court issuing its judgments and the Supreme Court's tweets so far this morning do not list it among the cases for which judgments are to be given today. If it were due out today, I expect we would already have had a commotion in the media.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672
    edited January 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Essexit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all very reminiscent of the night I came back to the flat around 11.30pm, went on twitter and PB and it dawned on me I'd have to write a thread about David Cameron allegedly sticking his dangly bits inside a dead pig's head.

    If there's to be a similar thread about Trump, fingers crossed for some piss-poor urination puns.
    That's a decision for Mike.

    The saddest thing about the Cameron pig story was it was right at the end of my stint as guest editor, I had written a thread about AV which had to get bumped because I had to cover the pig story.
    Now Cameron has left Number 10 (and the sound and fury of its astroturfers) what is the status of the pig story?
    An utter fabrication.

    My friend who attended the dump said there's no way one could be a member of both the Bullingdon Club and the Piers Gaveston Society.
    While I too was privileged to attend the greatest university in the world Cameron clearly was Bullingdon material and clearly not Gaveston material....
This discussion has been closed.