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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lib Dem incumbency: immune to government?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lib Dem incumbency: immune to government?

The biggest and longest-lasting movement in opinion polling since the 2010 general election has been the loss of at least half of the Lib Dem vote, most of which has gone to Labour.  By contrast, despite the spending restraint and what at times has been a strained relationship between the Conservatives and their traditional supporters, the last YouGov poll showed only a 1% direct net swing from …

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Comments

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lib Dem PPB 2015 "Well it wasn't a bad effort. Nobody died. Would you prefer to give him (Ed) or him (Dave) completely unfettered power instead?"
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    The thing with the Coalition is @RodCrosby that as people on both sides have now seen that the LibDems are a shambolic mish-mash of perfidious two-faced double-dealing shysters so they are more likely to say Yes to that question.

    You might as well vote for the real thing and know (roughly) what you're getting than risk the Yellow rabble muddying the waters.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited July 2013
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited July 2013
    O/T:

    Although HS2 is an interesting suggestion, IMO this is a better idea in the long-term, namely MagLev:

    http://www.500kmh.com/

    http://www.maglevuk.org/

    We're in austerity. Okay - wait a few year years until the public finances have been sorted out.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    (OT) If the Royal baby is a girl, Ed Miliband will probably ask for an enquitry and demand gender-quotas for royalty. Her Majesty would, in such a situation, have three great-granddaughters but zero great-grandsons.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    This is silly partisan clap-trap which should have no place on this site.
    GeoffM said:

    The thing with the Coalition is @RodCrosby that as people on both sides have now seen that the LibDems are a shambolic mish-mash of perfidious two-faced double-dealing shysters so they are more likely to say Yes to that question.

    You might as well vote for the real thing and know (roughly) what you're getting than risk the Yellow rabble muddying the waters.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited July 2013
    Spot on. That will be how the yellows play it except that the other two parties will be "Ed and UNITE" and "Dave and the Boneheads"
    RodCrosby said:

    Lib Dem PPB 2015 "Well it wasn't a bad effort. Nobody died. Would you prefer to give him (Ed) or him (Dave) completely unfettered power instead?"

  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T:

    Although HS2 is an interesting suggestion, IMO this is a better idea in the long-term, namely MagLev:

    http://www.500kmh.com/

    http://www.maglevuk.org/

    We're in austerity. Okay - wait a few year years until the public finances have been sorted out.

    may as well go for acoustic levitation!

    http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/351634/description/Sound_waves_put_levitation_on_the_move

    and power it with nuclear fusion while you're at it :)

    (probably still cheaper than west coast main line upgrade)
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited July 2013

    This is silly partisan clap-trap which should have no place on this site.

    Apologies, I should have added "In My View ©OGH"

    I'm assuming your reference to "Dave and the Boneheads" is completely impartial?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    The point about the lib dem base still being substantially denuded year on year needs stressed but there are plenty of caveats in the article which concede that. The fact of the matter is that the lib dem base at their 2010 strength won 57 seats and it will be nowhere near that strength in 2015. Clegg also wasn't toxic in 2010 but he absolutely is now and still will be in two years time.

    The other small problem for lib dem activists in some seats is when they try to persuade labour voters to vote tactically to keep the tories out. Can anyone see a tiny flaw in that plan after the coalition? The laughter that will greet them on many doorsteps may provide a clue.

    Nobody expects the lib dems to cease as a party yet the quite remarkable complacency with which Clegg seems to be running the show right now does not bode well for them at all.

    Some of the hits they are taking will take far longer than just a couple of years to rebuild yet the bizarre bubble thinking from Clegg and his inner circle seems totally oblivious to just how dangerous things could get. It is no small thing to rebuild from an electoral hammering yet the complete lack of urgency and lackadaisical attitude from Clegg would lead you to believe everything was just peachy with the lib dems. That is far from the case.

    Relying on any feel-good factor from the economy was also mooted as a possible mitigating factor back when the coalition was in it's earliest days. That would depend on there being a feel-good factor large enough to profit from and that the voter will reward the lib dems for it rather than the tories. Neither of which can be relied upon.

    Will some lib dem MPs be shielded from the worst effects of Clegg's leadership and the coalition by local activists where they are still strong? Undoubtedly. It's just a question of how many because it certainly won't be anywhere near all of them.


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,547
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T:

    Although HS2 is an interesting suggestion, IMO this is a better idea in the long-term, namely MagLev:

    http://www.500kmh.com/

    http://www.maglevuk.org/

    We're in austerity. Okay - wait a few year years until the public finances have been sorted out.

    Better to go for teleportation. We're nearly there. We've sussed the hard bit (quantum teleportation (1)), so it's just a case of breaking someone down into quanta, beaming the lucky individual down a fibre-optic cable and reassembling them at the other end! Then we'll be able to teleport people all over the world!

    We should invest in it immediately! Drop all other transport projects and work on teleportation! It's the future!

    Anyone wanting to invest on the basis of my beautiful website (www.teleportationishere.con) can send me some cash. Preferably in brown envelopes, as apparently I'm a PB Tory ...

    (1): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_teleportation
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Good article Mr Herdson - the LibDems may have a pretty good story to tell in 2015 - the economy ( Labour broke it, Labour broke it, Labour broke it - as potent now as 3 years ago -and probably still in 2015) is on the mend and we saved you from the Margaret Thatcher Bank Holiday. Vote for us & save the country from the Michael Foot Bank Holiday too!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,547
    Off-topic:

    With the Tour de France currently ongoing, and with a high possibility of a British winner, I'd just like to congratulate the Times for their cycle safe campaign.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/public/cyclesafety/

    This section is notably not under their paywall, and includes a large number of cycling stories.

    I've been doing much more cycling this year as time has not allowed me to do much of my beloved hiking, and I have seen many bad cyclists, walkers and car drivers on the roads. Education of cyclists' needs are needed by everyone (including some cyclists), and the Times is doing a good job at that.

    Well done to them.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    (OT) The Daily Telegraph reports:

    "Bernhard Carl Trautmann was born in Bremen, Germany, on October 22 1923, the elder son of a chemical loader at the docks. He grew up during the hyperinflationary period of the Weimar Republic,..."

    "Grew up during"? Er, that would be the hyperinflation period which ended when he was 25 days old, then? Nice to see the DT upholding the highest standards of quality journalism.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    JohnLoony said:

    (OT) The Daily Telegraph reports:

    "Bernhard Carl Trautmann was born in Bremen, Germany, on October 22 1923, the elder son of a chemical loader at the docks. He grew up during the hyperinflationary period of the Weimar Republic,..."

    "Grew up during"? Er, that would be the hyperinflation period which ended when he was 25 days old, then? Nice to see the DT upholding the highest standards of quality journalism.

    It is technically correct, the best kind of correct ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Good to see the ASA have retained their sense of humour - tho it might be one for SeanT to wind up his readers over:

    http://metro.co.uk/2013/07/10/anti-english-irn-bru-advert-gets-off-scot-free-3877896/?ITO=news-sitemap
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Well, yes. The LDs will find it much easier to defend seats in which the Tories are the main challengers. This has been pretty clear for quite a while now and it's why the LD's differentiation policy - which came to the fore after the AV referendum - is so important. It is clear that without the LD presence we would have had the most viciously right-wing government this country has seen for many a long year. I may not like the coalition, but I am very grateful that the LDs are there to rein in the Tory beast.

    Of course, if David is corrrect, what it also means is that to win outright in 2015 the Tories have to take seats from Labour while persuading left-leaning 2010 LDs not to abandon the LDs in Tory marginals where Labour is challenging, Lynton Crosby's rightward turn may not be the best way of doing that as it concentrates the minds of centre-left voters and probably makes them more determined to vote for the party best placed to beat the Tory candidate.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited July 2013

    the most viciously right-wing government this country has seen for many a long year.

    On Civil Liberties I guess you mean "since Tony Blair"?

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    edited July 2013
    Or Gordon Brown and 'Gulags for Slags'
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Viscount Thurso - Winning Here - Hereditary Peers for Parliament (Commons Division)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684

    Good article Mr Herdson - the LibDems may have a pretty good story to tell in 2015 - the economy ( Labour broke it, Labour broke it, Labour broke it - as potent now as 3 years ago -and probably still in 2015) is on the mend and we saved you from the Margaret Thatcher Bank Holiday. Vote for us & save the country from the Michael Foot Bank Holiday too!

    How do they sell , "we are a lying bunch of gits and will drop any principles whatsoever for a whiff of power, vote for us and get Tory or Labour ( we will see who has best deal on table ) whether you want them or not"
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684

    Good to see the ASA have retained their sense of humour - tho it might be one for SeanT to wind up his readers over:

    http://metro.co.uk/2013/07/10/anti-english-irn-bru-advert-gets-off-scot-free-3877896/?ITO=news-sitemap

    hard to believe there are 176 morons that complained about it, it was indeed funny and if they thought it was racist they need to see a shrink, suffering from sense of humour bypass.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    malcolmg said:

    Good article Mr Herdson - the LibDems may have a pretty good story to tell in 2015 - the economy ( Labour broke it, Labour broke it, Labour broke it - as potent now as 3 years ago -and probably still in 2015) is on the mend and we saved you from the Margaret Thatcher Bank Holiday. Vote for us & save the country from the Michael Foot Bank Holiday too!

    "we are a lying bunch of gits and will drop any principles whatsoever for a whiff of power...."
    In which respect the Lib Dems are of course unique among politicians.....

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    JohnO said:

    Or Gordon Brown and 'Gulags for Slags'

    Or Tony Blair and 'stick mega Casinos in areas of deprivation'......about one thing PM Brown did get right.....do you think Tony was lobbied on Casinos?

    "According to documents obtained by The Sunday Times, Mr Packer's venture hired Michael Stephenson, a former adviser to Prime Minister Tony Blair, to lobby for the changes.

    The paper said these efforts included a visit to Mr Packer's Crown Casino in Melbourne by a British minister and MPs charged with scrutinising the new laws, and culminated in meetings with Treasury and Culture Department officials last year."

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/packers-hand-in-uks-liberalised-gambling-laws/2005/10/16/1129401144722.html

    See? Two can play this game.....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684

    malcolmg said:

    Good article Mr Herdson - the LibDems may have a pretty good story to tell in 2015 - the economy ( Labour broke it, Labour broke it, Labour broke it - as potent now as 3 years ago -and probably still in 2015) is on the mend and we saved you from the Margaret Thatcher Bank Holiday. Vote for us & save the country from the Michael Foot Bank Holiday too!

    "we are a lying bunch of gits and will drop any principles whatsoever for a whiff of power...."
    In which respect the Lib Dems are of course unique among politicians.....

    Touche, however they will sell their soul to highest bidder , the others at least just lie for their own party benefit, though they would likely be the same if tested
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited July 2013
    malcolmg said:

    Good to see the ASA have retained their sense of humour - tho it might be one for SeanT to wind up his readers over:

    http://metro.co.uk/2013/07/10/anti-english-irn-bru-advert-gets-off-scot-free-3877896/?ITO=news-sitemap

    hard to believe there are 176 morons that complained about it, it was indeed funny and if they thought it was racist they need to see a shrink, suffering from sense of humour bypass.
    Funnily enough, I think its the Scottish dad who is being sent up - in much the same way that its the teenage son (and his drooling mammary obsessed mates) in this one (also complained about, also left on air):

    http://youtu.be/fX_K4mNTTI8
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The latest 2015 GE ARSE projection is for the LibDems to hold 40 seats down from their present 57.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Still think Clegg's got to go before the election!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    @tim - has Ed Miliband ever been lobbied/discussed tobacco regulation with his former aide Philip Barge, now Corporate Affairs Manager, Philip Morris International?
  • @SouthamObserver

    "It is clear that without the LD presence we would have had the most viciously right-wing government this country has seen for many a long year."

    Can you remind us which of the government measures are Labour pledging to reverse?
  • I think the LDs with some exceptions in the current coalition wish to be both opposition and government at the same time and this could prove their undoing in the election campaign. They want credit mainly for the goodies but no blame for the hard choices.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    In Wales, the LibDems are far weaker than they were. They will lose Cardiff Central to Labour, very likely lose Brecon to the Conservatives and will just retain Ceredigion as Plaid are not that popular.

    In general the LDs have proven to be somewhat unreliable coalition allies who put their own political foibles ahead of the economic and cultural good of the electorate.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT -- it's Saturday morning so the BBC news site leads on an American domestic story.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited July 2013
    It is obvious, except to fools, that it makes economic and political sense to await the outcomes on Plain packaging and alcohol unit pricing trials that are being carried out in Scotland, Australia and Canada
  • @tim. "No idea, but if he has been it hasn't worked as Labour has toughened it's stance on tobacco."

    Labour in opposition has changed many of the policies it espoused in government - it's what oppositions do.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The polling of 2010 LibDems on Labour is also interesting

    Ed Miliband: -32
    Ed Balls: -26

    So I guess EdM should fire himself before he fires EdB?
  • Spot on. That will be how the yellows play it except that the other two parties will be "Ed and UNITE" and "Dave and the Boneheads"

    RodCrosby said:

    Lib Dem PPB 2015 "Well it wasn't a bad effort. Nobody died. Would you prefer to give him (Ed) or him (Dave) completely unfettered power instead?"

    The Tories will play it as

    "Look what we managed to achieve while held back by the perfidious LD's. Imagine what we could do if we where running things ourselves"

    P.S. Mike, your slip is showing. For someone who claims to be independent and runs his website as such, it's becoming more obvious as things improve for the Tories/Coalition, that you don't like it.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    @tim

    "So you can go on about Labour being lobbied by one of Milibands former aides as much as you want,"

    don't worry tim I will. I don't get the timing of this attack - or was it forced on Labour by LC ?- but launching the attack when Parlt is out and the summer started doesn't look that clever. No doubt it will resume in September, but even the dogs in the street will be waiting for that one so I don't think Crosby will hang around waiting for his next kicking like DC did over Newscorp, Ed might find his own ribs a bit bruised by the end of it.
  • http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2370851/BBC-chief-Hall-gives-crony-600-000-deal-Wife-Britains-civil-servant-called-make-corporation-simpler-place-work.html

    The BBC simply doesn't get it. I do feel fortunate that I don't have to pay the licence fee for this nonsense
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    It will be very interesting to see if the 2011 effect in Scotland carries on into the GE2015. We saw all but the Northern Isles LibDem constituency LibDem MSPs blown away by the SNP. Seats like mine which had elected a LibDem without breaking sweat in 1999, 2003 and 2007 saw them swatted like flies in 2011 and replaced by SNP MSPs with even larger majorities in some cases. Those LibDems had been supported by constituency LibDem MPs like John Thurso, Charles Kennedy and Ming Campbell.

    In Westminster terms, how many LibDem seats saw more than their current majority over the Tories shaved off from their 2005 majority? It is easy to say someone is not going to fall over the precipice but if in fact they have slipped from having a handhold to just being held up by their fingernails, those fingernails will eventually give way. Everything suggests the Scottish LibDem seats will experience a "bloodbath" and I would not be surprised to hear John Thurso, Charles Kennedy, Ming Campbell and Malcolm Bruce all announce they are standing down. Whether any of their seats will revert to their former Conservative status (except C,S &R) will largely depend on whether the Tories hold on to all their current voters, attract back some of the Tory to LibDem switchers and the other switchers be spread among the other parties.

    I would be interested to hear what others think will happen in Somerset, Devon and Cornwall and to Twickenham, especially if Vince Cable retires.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684

    malcolmg said:

    Good to see the ASA have retained their sense of humour - tho it might be one for SeanT to wind up his readers over:

    http://metro.co.uk/2013/07/10/anti-english-irn-bru-advert-gets-off-scot-free-3877896/?ITO=news-sitemap

    hard to believe there are 176 morons that complained about it, it was indeed funny and if they thought it was racist they need to see a shrink, suffering from sense of humour bypass.
    Funnily enough, I think its the Scottish dad who is being sent up - in much the same way that its the teenage son (and his drooling mammary obsessed mates) in this one (also complained about, also left on air):

    http://youtu.be/fX_K4mNTTI8
    Exactly
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    JackW said:

    The latest 2015 GE ARSE projection is for the LibDems to hold 40 seats down from their present 57.

    Morning Jack, how many do you think will survive in Scotland?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT How things change!

    Historical Pictures @HistoricalPics
    1956: A 5 megabyte IBM harddisk is loaded into an airplane. It weighed over a 1000kg pic.twitter.com/heZ182k8Jr

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPmSRa7CUAAJioA.jpg:large
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    tim said:

    @tim

    "So you can go on about Labour being lobbied by one of Milibands former aides as much as you want,"

    don't worry tim I will. I don't get the timing of this attack - or was it forced on Labour by LC ?- but launching the attack when Parlt is out and the summer started doesn't look that clever. No doubt it will resume in September, but even the dogs in the street will be waiting for that one so I don't think Crosby will hang around waiting for his next kicking like DC did over Newscorp, Ed might find his own ribs a bit bruised by the end of it.

    Politically it's a no lose for Labour, and it puts down a marker again regarding Camerons character at a convenient time.
    His evasiveness is deja vu all over again.

    well maybe tim, but you don't go on the attack, then stop after the opening barrage let the opposition get their defences in place and then resume without getting some needless casualties yourself.

    I could understand it if Labour started and then pushed on hard, but taking a break to enjoy the summer, seems a bit odd.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tim said:

    @tim

    "So you can go on about Labour being lobbied by one of Milibands former aides as much as you want,"

    don't worry tim I will. I don't get the timing of this attack - or was it forced on Labour by LC ?- but launching the attack when Parlt is out and the summer started doesn't look that clever. No doubt it will resume in September, but even the dogs in the street will be waiting for that one so I don't think Crosby will hang around waiting for his next kicking like DC did over Newscorp, Ed might find his own ribs a bit bruised by the end of it.

    a marker again regarding Camerons character
    A) No it doesn't, and
    B) if you will keep bringing up the question of character:

    Ed Miliband is a weak leader : 46 - total base and 2010 Lib Dems..
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    JackW said:

    The latest 2015 GE ARSE projection is for the LibDems to hold 40 seats down from their present 57.

    Morning Jack, how many do you think will survive in Scotland?
    How many do you think that the Tories will take in Scotland because quite a few of the 11 LD seats have CON in second place

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Fewer than one in four voters think Ed Miliband will be prime minister in 2015, according to a new poll.

    Just 22 per cent expect him to win the next election – the first in a series of unhappy findings for Mr Miliband after weeks of controversy over Labour’s links to the trades unions.

    To add to Mr Miliband’s woes, his business spokesman Chuka Umunna, tipped as a future Labour leader, was reported last night to have started seeing Tony Blair regularly.

    According to a ComRes poll for ITV News, the majority of the British public – 57 per cent – do not see Mr Miliband as an election winner.

    Twice as many – 42 per cent – agree that Labour would have a better chance in 2015 without him as the 20 per cent who disagree. With polls suggesting Britain may be on course for another hung parliament, 43 per cent said they would prefer another Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition to the 33 per cent who favour a Lib-Lab pact.

    Almost half of voters, some 46 per cent, say that Labour cannot be trusted to run the economy, a figure that is unchanged from last year and suggests the party has made no headway on the key issue.

    One crumb of comfort for Mr Miliband is that the public are slightly less likely to say that Labour would be more electable with David Miliband as its leader than they were last year. Some 31 per cent agree – down six points from last September.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2370891/Fewer-voters-believes-Ed-Miliband-Britains-Prime-Minister.html#ixzz2ZZCCrype


  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The Daily Mail having fun with the ITN ComRes poll:

    "Fewer than one in four voters think Ed Miliband will be prime minister in 2015, according to a new poll.
    Just 22 per cent expect him to win the next election – the first in a series of unhappy findings for Mr Miliband after weeks of controversy over Labour’s links to the trades unions.
    To add to Mr Miliband’s woes, his business spokesman Chuka Umunna, tipped as a future Labour leader, was reported last night to have started seeing Tony Blair regularly."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2370891/Fewer-voters-believes-Ed-Miliband-Britains-Prime-Minister.html#ixzz2ZZCnwc1e
  • JackW said:

    The latest 2015 GE ARSE projection is for the LibDems to hold 40 seats down from their present 57.

    Morning Jack, how many do you think will survive in Scotland?
    How many do you think that the Tories will take in Scotland because quite a few of the 11 LD seats have CON in second place

    What an odd response to a perfectly reasonable question.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Financier said:

    In Wales, the LibDems are far weaker than they were. They will lose Cardiff Central to Labour, very likely lose Brecon to the Conservatives and will just retain Ceredigion as Plaid are not that popular.

    In general the LDs have proven to be somewhat unreliable coalition allies who put their own political foibles ahead of the economic and cultural good of the electorate.

    it is a pity that you make a forecast without looking at whether the evidence backs it up .

    Cardiff Central is very likely to be held by the Lib Dems but it will be a close fight . The Welsh Assembly result in 2011 was a virtual deadheat between Lib Dems and Labour but the results in the 6 council wards making up the parliamentary seat in 2012 had the Lib Dems well in the lead . Brecon was comfortably held by the Lib Dems in the 2011 Welsh Assembly .
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915

    JackW said:

    The latest 2015 GE ARSE projection is for the LibDems to hold 40 seats down from their present 57.

    Morning Jack, how many do you think will survive in Scotland?
    How many do you think that the Tories will take in Scotland because quite a few of the 11 LD seats have CON in second place

    If Sir Robert Smith retires I would expect West Aberdeenshire to go blue. If he stands again, who knows. The SNP are a long way back in 3rd and Labour just behind them.

    Argyll has the look of Inverness 1983 with any one of 4 parties capable of winning.

    On paper Berwickshire would be another Tory gain but Michael Moore as Scottish Secretary has a high profile so he should probably survive ok.

    Edinburgh West looks like a 3-way marginal which Labour would take if the polls are right about LibDem 2010 voters.

    If Ming Campbell retires, NE Fife would be another Argyll and anyone could win.

    Gordon should go SNP if Malcolm Bruce retires.

    I think Danny Alexander will hold on and perhaps more comfortably than the polls suggest

    Alistair Carmichael would need an earthquake to remove him from the Northern Isles.

    If Charles Kennedy retires then his seat could be a 3 way marginal. The Tories would be 4th.

    Realistically if the Scottish Tories hold their existing seat they will do well and if they go up to 3 seats that would be a "major" success.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Good article, sums up the position well.

    Two slightly different points. First, I sense a decline in sheer dislike of politicians at the moment. I've been saying for some time that people think we're all rubbish - they still do, but the venom is seeping away. Cameron's ratings are up from catastrophic to merely bad. The reaction to the £75K pay proposal was strong but brief and not sustained - the parties don't feel they have to stop it or get lynched. There is also a general sense (which may not be entirely accurate) that the economy has tottered through the worst. If that's true, it is probably bad news for UKIP, who are powered particularly by a sense of outrage, and hence good news for the Tories.

    Second, the reason I don't think we'll see swingback on the scale of previous Parliaments is that Labour hasn't been mopping up the frothy anti-government vote. The votes we've won since 2010 are, as Mike keeps saying, primarily angry left-wing LibDems, and they aren't at all frothy, or inclined to swing back because the economy grows 0.7% or they're not sure about Miliband. David's right that they'll do better where they're a main contender (thougheven there they're eroding). But the left-LibDem Parliamentary vote in current Con/Lab marginals has simply gone to Labour - it's as implacable as anything in politics today, and I don't think Cameron or Clegg can do anything about it.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    The latest 2015 GE ARSE projection is for the LibDems to hold 40 seats down from their present 57.

    Morning Jack, how many do you think will survive in Scotland?
    Hey ho young "Easterross"

    My McARSE prediction for the Scottish LibDems is presently 8.

    However this figure should be treated with a little caution as a number of possible retirees have yet to disclose their hand. So 8 or fewer is my most accurate answer.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    NP,

    Probably a reasonable summary but ...

    EdM has to survive an election campaign and emerge as a credible PM. That famous Sheffield rally wasn't the reason Kinnock lost, it was just an excuse for what was already happening. The media character examination/assassination had already done its job. Ed has the same problem and he's not as prime ministerial as Kinnock.

    These sort of insults stick only if there is a justification for them. Ken L was demonised at one stage but it didn't work so well as he does have a sort of ruthless charm. Ed? I'm sure his mother loves him.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited July 2013

    Good article, sums up the position well.

    But the left-LibDem Parliamentary vote in current Con/Lab marginals has simply gone to Labour - it's as implacable as anything in politics today, and I don't think Cameron or Clegg can do anything about it.

    Absolutely correct.

    In town yesterday I bumped into an ex-LD councillor whom I'd not seen for years. He was still active in the party but told me he would almost certainly vote LAB at the general election.

    Like many known LDs in this super LAB-CON marginal (majority 1353) he'd been personally canvassed by the ex-Lab MP who is standing again. Their effort seems very focused on LDs and they've got good database records

    The Tories are doing sod all.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    So you are predicting that the LDs will lose just 3 of the 11 seats they hold in Scotland?

    Interesting.
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    The latest 2015 GE ARSE projection is for the LibDems to hold 40 seats down from their present 57.

    Morning Jack, how many do you think will survive in Scotland?
    Hey ho young "Easterross"

    My McARSE prediction for the Scottish LibDems is presently 8.

    However this figure should be treated with a little caution as a number of possible retirees have yet to disclose their hand. So 8 or fewer is my most accurate answer.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349

    "The visceral loathing of Gove (and increasingly Hunt) among these swing voters is something to be believed"

    Who? I'm probably a lot more clued up than most of the population, but I struggle to remember who's who. It's really just the leaders that matter.

    Ed's problem is Ed. Were he to host a serious summit with Obama, Putin and whoever the Chinese send, the big three would issue a communique while Ed made the teas and coffees.

    He may be ruthless and he may be determined but he's a soft shite at heart. I never knew Jack Kennedy, I never worked with Jack Kennedy, but even so ...

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @Financier
    The ComRes EdM poll would have been a lot more convincing if the same quesions had been put about Cameron, Clegg and Farage as well.

    The overall questioning scheme looks leading
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Nick I would certainly agree with that

    " But the left-LibDem Parliamentary vote in current Con/Lab marginals has simply gone to Labour -"

    Also in the CON/LIB seat of York outer , the labour voters now know its not a winnable seat so will not even try to stop the conservatives like they did in 2010, this will apply in others.

    The economy around here also seems to be improving, with the local labour council getting a lot of credit see the article .
    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21581722-ancient-city-has-found-recipe-post-industrial-success-northern-light

    So the City of York will remain Labour, York Outer Conservative.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @Tim

    I don't know about other places but the CON organisation is Bedford which is Labour 20th top CON target is very poor. The ex CON parliamentary candidate and former CON group leader has now switched to UKIP and the rumour is that she'll stand for the purples.

    She has a very large personal vote and her own organisational network.

    In 2009 she was expelled from the party by Cameron after widely reported comments attacking the way the Tory primary for a mayoral candidate had been organised.

    Bedford is now a LAB cert.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    @Mike - So Bedford is a Labour cert. So what odds will you then give for a wee Saturday wager? I'm told this is a betting site.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The Sun picks up the Indie front page splash on the hacking that went unpunished under New Labour:

    "MPs slammed Britain’s FBI yesterday after it claimed publishing a list of law firms, insurance companies and big businesses involved in hacking would breach human rights."

    Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5024009/Fury-as-cops-keep-big-firm-hackers-a-secret.html#ixzz2ZZWBTojp

    Will Ed call for a "Judge led Enquiry"?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    @Financier
    The ComRes EdM poll would have been a lot more convincing if the same quesions had been put about Cameron, Clegg and Farage as well.

    The overall questioning scheme looks leading

    The comments I here on many occasions, are that Cameron looks the part but isn`t.
    Milliband does not look the part.

    So that is what we will be hearing for 2 years.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    CD13 - Well, most of those nations have had very weak leaders in the past, the US had Carter, Russia Medvedev etc and the Chinese leader is normally a largely faceless apparatchik, although the new president seems more charismatic. France now has Hollande and when the US sent Dubya to summits do you think other leaders looked on in awe, of course not, he was probably underqualified to be the tea boy, let alone the most powerful man on earth! Just because Miliband is a relatively weak leader, he would still be the leader of a G8 nation which is also a member of the UN security council, so other nations will not be able to ignore him completely!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    A thorough article as always from David. Just a few thoughts. The Lib Dem membership might still be active and motivated but the number of troops is significantly down. You say that the activist base is loyal to local MPs if not the leadership, but ultimately these are the MPs who have been keeping the leadership in its place. I don't believe the great problem for them was entering government when they had always been seen as outsiders, more that as Tony Blair (yes I know) put it they fought three elections to the left of Labour and then got into bed with the Tories. That to my mind is the bigger problem.

    That said I think your expectations for them next time are low. I still think 35-40 is reasonable for them and I'm saying this as someone who'd love to see them annihilated after the way the leadership has behaved. Or would I? After all the blues would be the main beneficeries. The rational thing would be for Labour supporters in the South West to hold their nose and vote Lib Dem. But voters aren't always completely rational of course.
  • tim said:

    @NickPalmer

    But the left-LibDem Parliamentary vote in current Con/Lab marginals has simply gone to Labour - it's as implacable as anything in politics today, and I don't think Cameron or Clegg can do anything about it.

    That's true.
    The visceral loathing of Gove (and increasingly Hunt) among these swing voters is something to be believed.And they blame the Lib Dems for keeping them in power.
    They are not going anywhere.

    There is no 'visceral loathing of Gove or Jeremy Hunt'. When was the last time you heard someone say, unprompted, "I viscerally loathe Gove and Hunt". Fantasy stuff. There may be dislike but 'visceral loathing'. Really?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2013
    Retirements will be a key factor in the mix. 21 of the 59 LD MPs will be 60+ at GE 2015. Not all will retire, but 10 should be expected to stand down. Fighting elections is getting tougher and some will just opt for a quiet retirement, there are also health issues. Most of those seats will then be lost. Cable looks likely to be standing again, at 69.

    Regarding the point Mr Herdson makes about their councillor base, it has lost 50% of the seats that they held at their peak. In Scotland and Wales that 50% loss happened in 2011.

    We also read about these LD "strongholds" such as Eastleigh. In the May local elections they lost 3 of their 6 county seats to UKIP. They now have just 3 of the 7 seats with Ukip holding 3 and Conservatives 1. Yes they did win the by election, but with just 32% of the votes. Whilst they should hold Eastleigh at the GE (1st time incumbent), other "strongholds" have been similarly weakened.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    On topic, Ascroft's recent polls in LD marginals have shown big losses and Easterross all but the Orkneys of the rural LD seats in Scotland judging by a recent poll will fall to the SNP!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2013

    So you are predicting that the LDs will lose just 3 of the 11 seats they hold in Scotland?

    Interesting.


    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    The latest 2015 GE ARSE projection is for the LibDems to hold 40 seats down from their present 57.

    Morning Jack, how many do you think will survive in Scotland?
    Hey ho young "Easterross"

    My McARSE prediction for the Scottish LibDems is presently 8.

    However this figure should be treated with a little caution as a number of possible retirees have yet to disclose their hand. So 8 or fewer is my most accurate answer.

    Yes Mike, but and it's a big but this number might fall considerably if a number of MPs decide to spend more time with their sandals !!

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    tim said:

    @NickPalmer

    But the left-LibDem Parliamentary vote in current Con/Lab marginals has simply gone to Labour - it's as implacable as anything in politics today, and I don't think Cameron or Clegg can do anything about it.

    That's true.
    The visceral loathing of Gove (and increasingly Hunt) among these swing voters is something to be believed.And they blame the Lib Dems for keeping them in power.
    They are not going anywhere.

    I can believe that. What about Osborne though. After all he's got the biggest brief. He may be benefiting from the fact that in current circumstances it's the one many people find it most difficult to come to a conclusion on.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    There is no 'visceral loathing of Gove or Jeremy Hunt'. When was the last time you heard someone say, unprompted, "I viscerally loathe Gove and Hunt". Fantasy stuff. There may be dislike but 'visceral loathing'. Really?

    They could walk into the pub and fair proportion of PB.com wouldn't recognise them side on and holding a pint, let alone a random member of civpop. Only partisans have dartboards with their pictures attached, and they are unswayable voters anyway.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited July 2013
    @Jack

    Who are you predicting to lose? Swinson, Bruce and Moore?
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    I'm not sure that the polling indicates a 'loathing' of Hunt or Gove. Even as a teacher I agree with a few things that Gove comes out with (albeit in the hulking great shadow of constant carping about teachers, when the main problem is the management of schools). If you look at polling on stuff like trust and privatisation*, I reckon that's more about what's behind it. I guess it depends on how well the demonising campaign goes, as with 'benefit scroungers'. And the related scope for sympathy/empathy.

    *Yes I know that in ye olde days we had to wait three generations to get a phone etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited July 2013
    Forget David Miliband, it looks like Tony has now anointed Chuka as his new heir, despite initial concerns he may be too left-wing.
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b2e9e3a6-ef46-11e2-bb27-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2ZYhZXKkZ
  • O/T
    Awesome bit of bike control by Vos the Boss. Question is, what was a pot hole doing just in front of the finish line?

    http://vimeo.com/69596492
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    So far just 1 LD retirement confirmed. Annette Brooke in Mid Dorset. Replacement already selected.

    If any of the other oldish LibDems is thinking about retirement, he should announce by the end of the year to give the new PPC more than 1 year to build the profile.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    '67% of the British public say the weather is now 'too hot'' yougov
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited July 2013
    Labour selection for the weekend

    Today

    Erewash (AWS)
    Battersea
    Brighton Pavilion (AWS)

    Tomorrow

    Croydon Central (AWS)
    Gravesham


    Len doesn't particularly care about any of them.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2013

    Retirements will be a key factor in the mix. 21 of the 59 LD MPs will be 60+ at GE 2015. Not all will retire, but 10 should be expected to stand down. Fighting elections is getting tougher and some will just opt for a quiet retirement, there are also health issues. Most of those seats will then be lost. Cable looks likely to be standing again, at 69.

    Regarding the point Mr Herdson makes about their councillor base, it has lost 50% of the seats that they held at their peak. In Scotland and Wales that 50% loss happened in 2011.

    We also read about these LD "strongholds" such as Eastleigh. In the May local elections they lost 3 of their 6 county seats to UKIP. They now have just 3 of the 7 seats with Ukip holding 3 and Conservatives 1. Yes they did win the by election, but with just 32% of the votes. Whilst they should hold Eastleigh at the GE (1st time incumbent), other "strongholds" have been similarly weakened.

    The Eastleigh parliamentary seat wasn't a "stronghold" even under Huhne - solid majority but hardly safe. The by-election should also be seen in the context of a governing party holding the seat - a wee bit unusual too.

    Presently I'm looking at shortlisting Eastleigh in the "JackW Dozen" for the 2015 GE. These will be 12 marginal seats that should point the way to a final result. I may offer a thread on the subject !!

    So far only Broxtowe has made the cut ....

    Titters ....

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Carola said:

    I'm not sure that the polling indicates a 'loathing' of Hunt or Gove.

    Not when 40% for Gove and 51% for Hunt 'don't know'.

    On EdM, on the other hand, only 28% of 2010 Lib Dems 'don't know', while 52% think he's doing "badly".....

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    tim:

    No news from Eastleigh's bunker so far!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    O/T
    Awesome bit of bike control by Vos the Boss. Question is, what was a pot hole doing just in front of the finish line?

    http://vimeo.com/69596492

    I hadn't realised Le Tour had passed through Harpenden where the number and size of the pot holes are so great that when it rains the area looks like the Great Lakes region of North America !!

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Financier said:

    In Wales, the LibDems are far weaker than they were. They will lose Cardiff Central to Labour, very likely lose Brecon to the Conservatives and will just retain Ceredigion as Plaid are not that popular.

    In general the LDs have proven to be somewhat unreliable coalition allies who put their own political foibles ahead of the economic and cultural good of the electorate.

    it is a pity that you make a forecast without looking at whether the evidence backs it up .

    Cardiff Central is very likely to be held by the Lib Dems but it will be a close fight . The Welsh Assembly result in 2011 was a virtual deadheat between Lib Dems and Labour but the results in the 6 council wards making up the parliamentary seat in 2012 had the Lib Dems well in the lead . Brecon was comfortably held by the Lib Dems in the 2011 Welsh Assembly .
    Mark:

    I happen (for my sins) to have lived in Wales for the last 6 years and am using on-the-ground knowledge.

    First 2011 is a long time ago in political terms. Since then Plaid has had a new leader - and a bit of a bounce -,but the Welsh LibDem leader is nigh invisible - as in the Welsh Con leader.

    Also Welsh Council and AM elections are not a reliable guide to a GE result. For instance the upcoming election for an AM at Ynys Mon (Anglesey) will not be a reliable guide to 2015 due to the large number of independents.

    In Ceredigion, Plaid lead the Council after the last local elections, but would you suggest that Mark Williams (LD) will lose his seat in 2015?

    In S.Wales, Labour has woken up and are starting to try to improve education but at the same time do daft things like buying Cardiff airport - it is likely that all Cardiff seats will go Labour.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    tim said:

    Carola said:

    '67% of the British public say the weather is now 'too hot'' yougov


    61% of men, 72% of women.
    Gender temperature split, discuss.
    Man can get their tits out.

    There were plenty on show down the beach last night. Oh my eyes.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    tim said:

    Carola said:

    '67% of the British public say the weather is now 'too hot'' yougov


    61% of men, 72% of women.
    Gender temperature split, discuss.
    Like Lions. Men are lazy and lounge around whereas women do most of the work. Not comfortable in this weather I'd say.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    I'm not sure that the polling indicates a 'loathing' of Hunt or Gove.

    Not when 40% for Gove and 51% for Hunt 'don't know'.

    On EdM, on the other hand, only 28% of 2010 Lib Dems 'don't know', while 52% think he's doing "badly".....

    Well I guess that could be an indicator of those who haven't needed to use the NHS for a while or don't have kids in school. There's broader scope for judging a party leader.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Mike

    "The ComRes EdM poll would have been a lot more convincing if the same quesions had been put about Cameron, Clegg and Farage as well."

    I wondered the same thing. It's as though they were trying to prove a point about Ed. Unusual for a TV News Channel-even ITV.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Carola said:

    tim said:

    Carola said:

    '67% of the British public say the weather is now 'too hot'' yougov


    61% of men, 72% of women.
    Gender temperature split, discuss.
    Man can get their tits out.

    There were plenty on show down the beach last night. Oh my eyes.
    Not too sure the picture of Eric Pickles and Nick Soames in their skimpy speedos on your beach is one to think too closely about !!

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited July 2013
    "But part of it is blamed on Miliband himself. One figure close to the top reports that the leader "consults everyone but listens to no one", complaining of a strategic indecisiveness reminiscent of Gordon Brown....

    Miliband acts as if a single speech were enough to shut down a problem when, as Blair understood, no message even begins to penetrate until it has been repeated a thousand times."

    Daily Telegraph
    Daily Mail
    Sun
    Times
    Daily Express


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/19/summer-labour-tories-hog-fuelled?CMP=twt_gu
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited July 2013

    Cable looks likely to be standing again, at 69.

    Cable, Beith and Stunnell will be 72 in May 2015. Ming 74.

    They are already the oldest Lib Dem (or Lib) MPs in more than 50 years...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It sounds as if in Bedford the LDs have acknowledged their loser status and are tacitly supporting Labour, perhaps even overtly. If the national campaign does the same then they will be campaigning against their own record in govt, particularly difficult for the third of the party who are in govt.

    While there is some benefit to having local council presence and incumbency it is a fairly small effect compared to national polling figures. With the locals next year on the same day as the Euros we are likely to see further losses of LD councilors.

    The LDs in govt (with the exception of the empty vessel Vince Cable) have impressed me, and I do not think need be ashamed of their role in govt. The europhobic tendencies of the headbangers in the conservative party give some scope for votes to be peeled off from centrist conservatives, as in Cl eggs seat which was recently a safe Tory seat. Campaigning as fellow travelers of Miliband here would be neither plausible or wise.

    The LD campaign risks being incoherent and prone to splits if the Smithsonites turn their loathing on the pro-coalitionites. I think the LDs will lose about 20 seats, to a mix of Tories, Labour, SNP and possibly to UKIP in Eastleigh. While they may hold the balance of power in 2015 they will not be plausible power brokers having lost so many seats and a big share of the popular vote.

    Good article by DH as per usual.

    @Tim

    I don't know about other places but the CON organisation is Bedford which is Labour 20th top CON target is very poor. The ex CON parliamentary candidate and former CON group leader has now switched to UKIP and the rumour is that she'll stand for the purples.

    She has a very large personal vote and her own organisational network.

    In 2009 she was expelled from the party by Cameron after widely reported comments attacking the way the Tory primary for a mayoral candidate had been organised.

    Bedford is now a LAB cert.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: my mid-season review of the racing (with a look ahead to the second half of 2013 and beyond) is up at:

    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/mid-season-review-racing.html

    and

    http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/mid-season-review-racing.html
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    I've said before. Eastleigh is easily UKIP's best prospect in the GE, although still not a great one.

    Will the Tories vote tactically for the LibDem? It's probably in their long-term interests to do so...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tim said:

    More homeopathy news.

    No more signatures on the homeopathy for sheep EDM

    http://www.parliament.uk/edm/2013-14/323

    1 each for Labour & the Conservatives.....I'm not sure the placebo effect has been documented in sheep......

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Nothings too good for the workers! Inverse snobbery anyone?

    charlie whelan‏@charliewhelan58m
    Too many Tories #lords yesterday. An all Labour team with me today. At least didn't bump into Cameron in pavilion, he's not a member #ashes
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "It is now far harder for Lib Dem MPs to lead the sort of local campaigns they used to. Campaigns are far more effective when they’re against something than for it but when you’re in government there’s a good chance that your party is in some way responsible for what you’d like to campaign against."

    This does, I think, hold for some but not that many issues that have been the sort of thing campaigned by the LibDem near me, (Sir) Bob Russell. There's plenty left - from discussing schools, potholes, transport, local housing, and other administrative decisions in the remit of local authorities.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    If Maria Hutchings is the CON candidate and UKIP sticks with Diane James then it's obvious.
    RodCrosby said:

    I've said before. Eastleigh is easily UKIP's best prospect in the GE, although still not a great one.

    Will the Tories vote tactically for the LibDem? It's probably in their long-term interests to do so...

  • Stage 3 next year from Cambridge to The Mall will be about as close as Le Tour gets to Harpenden.
    I'm still thinking about the best spectating strategy.
    Either watch it roll through Epping and dash home to watch the rest on TV, or head up to central London and find a spot near one of the big screens.
    JackW said:

    O/T
    Awesome bit of bike control by Vos the Boss. Question is, what was a pot hole doing just in front of the finish line?

    http://vimeo.com/69596492

    I hadn't realised Le Tour had passed through Harpenden where the number and size of the pot holes are so great that when it rains the area looks like the Great Lakes region of North America !!

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited July 2013
    No. On general election day the big battle for the LDs in Bedford will be to hold onto the elected mayoralty of which the party holds two, same as the Tories. They will do.

    What's the point of wasting your general election vote?

    Incumbency matters enormously in these contests.


    It sounds as if in Bedford the LDs have acknowledged their loser status i

This discussion has been closed.