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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stoke Central, where MP Tristram Hunt is resigning, could be a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stoke Central, where MP Tristram Hunt is resigning, could be a tight four-way contest
Westminster by-election alert. Stoke Central later in year following MP's appointment as Director of the V&A pic.twitter.com/GQ9lRUgqUt
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And this seat is made for Ed Balls.
As a Cambridge educated historian it is Parliament's loss and the V&A's gain.
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FPT
Thanks to all for the kind words.
wonder if the tories have been doing any leafleting in Stoke the last few weeks?
Tbe dislike of the Westminster Spadocracy is their remoteness, as much as their views on Brexit.
Mike moves markets.
2/7 Lab
4/1 Ukip
9/1 Con
16/1 LD
200/1 Green
If they don't win this set-piece, they'll win nowt in 2020.
@LOS_Fisher: Ukip has bought itself time to choose candidate for Stoke-on-Trent C byelxn. Will wait until Sunday 21st January to unveil choice.
May and or Nuttall change that.
Not tempted at much lower odds though.
My initial thought was 20/1 - if they get their 2010 voters out and UKIP/Lab/Con/Ind(?) split the rest on a low turnout.
Not likely, but also not 50/1.
Sadly I don't have a functional ladbrokes account.
Thank you.
Mrs JackW has ordered me to resist all attempts at bodily expiration. The consequences of refusal would be terminal ....
That's another potential by election if she's found guilty.
542-7 stumps day 2.
50/1 was a great bet. The current 6/1 isn't!
My initial guess: Labour will hold this, UKIP to go backwards considerably, LibDems to achieve a very big increase in their vote, maybe getting second place, Tories to go modestly backwards.
8/13 Lab
9/2 Ukip
10/1 con
10/1 ld
I saw the 50 to 1, logged in it was 20 to 1, got 12 to 1 and now it's 6 to 1.
I concur with your assessment.
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@TOPPING Cheers.
•The Trots – these are the entryists, the people from the SWP, the Socialist party and other far left fringe groups who see Corbyn as their way into the mainstream. Corbyn, John McDonnell and the Momentum leadership are probably closest to this group than any other, which is what makes it so significant and dangerous – but it is small.
•The implacable lefties – not Trots, democratic socialists who see the Blair/Brown years largely as a betrayal of what they think Labour should stand for and who feel that they have their Labour party back with Jeremy Corbyn.
•The lefties – they do not subscribe to the idea that the 1997-2010 government was to all intents and purposes a Tory one. Instead, they believe that Blair and Brown did some good things; but could and should have achieved much more. They regard Corbyn as a means of ensuring that Labour becomes more left-wing in outlook and less managerial. They also understand Corbyn has many flaws, but for now (key phrase) are prepared to overlook them because they do not see a more electable alternative.
•The angry – there is a fair bit of overlap here between these folk and the lefties. They are furious that the PLP precipitated “a coup” just at a time when, they believe, Labour could have had the Tories on the ropes. Whatever they think about Corbyn, there was no way on earth they were going to allow the PLP to ride roughshod over the mandate that members had given him in 2015.
•The anti-Smiths – Those who saw the contest in terms of who had the best policies for beating the Tories. Some of those are not lefties or angry, but just did not rate Smith as a candidate – so they voted for Corbyn.
The first bullet point is forever Corbyn, but even the second one may not be now. The key to him going is the PLP and the left coming to an understanding that the party has moved leftwards, but that a leader who has supported the IRA and other terrorist organisations, who winces in the presence of the Union Jack and who is not interested in winning power through Parliament is a non-starter.
Since September, Momentum has started to tear itself apart, Corbyn has become more unpopular among the electorate and has swung wildly on positions he was supposed to hold sacrosanct while proving he is utterly incapable of leadership, and Donald Trump has been elected president while Theresa May has positioned the UK for a hard Brexit. All the mood music is different. Corbyn is going and UKIP could deliver the coup de grace.
Lab 8/15
UKIP 9/4
Con 11/1
LD 12/1
http://www.bet365.com/?&cb=10326428650#/AC/B5/C20513130/D1/E31917829/F2/
https://twitter.com/TristramHuntMP/status/671335810696880128
At the moment there is Momentum / Corbynism for the left to coalesce around. Who is forming a nucleus of people and ideas for the centre-left? Who is theorising, yet alone elucidating, an alternative? They're headless chickens.
*If* the centrists had had such a vision, and someone who could sell it, they might have beaten Corbyn. Instead they had Owen Smith and Angela Eagles.
Labour are f*cked for 2020. 2025 doesn't look good. They may be f*cked for good.
(*) I still think that it's an utterly ridiculous term to use.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEKVLjXO2Fk
In many ways Labour's problems stem from this extreme weakness on the right rather than from any great strength on the left. If the right of the party had a clear vision, the left wouldn't be getting a look in.
The hypocrisy is when people argue against such systems despite using them themselves; in the case of education, by sending their kids to such schools.
Can anybody think of a high-profile politician close to Corbyn who might have shown such hypocrisy in the past?
Second, yes I agree. There is no articulation of what a soft/leftish centre party in the UK should look like. A bit more spending, slightly higher taxes, a bit more redistribution. Nothing to put in huge letters on the front of an election leaflet. That was of course EdM's problem in the debates. He equivocated on the deficit/austerity and hence there was no message. It was also the problem for the challengers. At least Jezza had no issue with dismissing austerity (as indeed has Tezza done now).
Politics has come to be a fight over an increasingly small centre ground one way or another. If Tezza moves further away from that, then that will open up a space for those Lab hard righters. But that isn't going to come until Lab has ditched Jezza and I can see why Tristram didn't want to wait.
Hard not to think that he didn't want to be an MP... He wanted to be a Minister - and when it looks like that might not happen as quick as he wanted he gave up.
If he's replaced by a local candidate I suspect Stoke will be better off also.
Hunt is from the centre-left, and the centre-left believe in aspiration for the masses. What is more aspirational for the hoi polloi than going to a Pizza Express rather than a Pizza Hut?
If he'd stayed on, he'd next be welcoming a branch of Patisserie Valerie
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2604879/donald-trumps-cadillac-one-presidential-limo-will-be-fitted-with-bullet-proof-windows-a-tear-gas-cannon-and-bottles-of-the-president-elects-blood-type/
Nothing to see...
I wonder if the discrepancy between polls and by-election results can be partly attributed to something new: Shy Lib Dems. Centrist voters may not admit to supporting the Lib Dems any more (Clegg was toxic, Farron's profile is low verging on submarine), but when faced with a ballot paper which offers three other unpalatable alternatives, they conclude that the LDs are the least worst option.
Ironically he imay yet end up overseeing a shift towards MPs being linked much more closely to their communities.... And even away from being so London centric!