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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s challenge in retaining Stoke Central is equal if not

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s challenge in retaining Stoke Central is equal if not greater than in Copeland

I was one of the lucky ones and managed to get £20 on the LDs at Ladbrokes Stoke Central market when the odds were 50/1. That’s now moved in sharply to 7/1 which I think is still reasonable value.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited January 2017
    Have you ever won a 50/1 bet Mike?
  • FWIW I'm betting on a Labour hold here.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    To come from 4.2% to win the seat would be an amazing result for the LDs!
  • Bloody hell I didn't realise I'm 34 minutes away from Stoke, I wish it was further away.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,721
    Are there any markets on how low a share of the vote the winner will have. (Or even actual number of votes for the winner given the expected low turnout as well... - could be ridiculously low)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    7/1 is still "reasonable value" on the Lib Dems? It's a view. Congrats on the 50/1 though.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    RobD said:

    To come from 4.2% to win the seat would be an amazing result for the LDs!

    That was in the special circumstances of the coalition. The world has changed and the LDs are winning all over the place. In Sunderland last night they went from 4% in 2015 to 45%.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,721
    Looking at the numbers - if you assume a 28% turnout, and that the winner gets 28% in a tight four way contest - that would be just 5,000 votes required....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm expecting a fairly comfortable Labour hold. Nothing in this Parliament's by-elections suggests anything different as yet. Meanwhile, Betfair is heading towards evens on Labour taking this seat. Seems like great value to me.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    7/1 is still "reasonable value" on the Lib Dems? It's a view. Congrats on the 50/1 though.

    Any local thoughts?

    Is there going to be an independent again? Breeze did in 2015 at 6.8% in a GE.
  • A sublime 15 minutes from one of the West's most significant public intellectuals Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks. It's about the politics of Covenant in the US but it also made me a bit teary about our EU referendum.

    https://youtu.be/Glrq6G-_L6w
  • Bloody hell I didn't realise I'm 34 minutes away from Stoke, I wish it was further away.

    I'm amused to all these press reports saying Stoke is in the North.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited January 2017
    Mike and I both cop a grand if the LDs win.. although I would rather have £20@50/1 than £50@20/1

    Lab on Betfair v big, I agree with @AlastairMeeks... Never been anyone other than a Labour MP in this seat.. and nearly EVS???
  • Bloody hell I didn't realise I'm 34 minutes away from Stoke, I wish it was further away.

    I'm amused to all these press reports saying Stoke is in the North.
    Anything south of Chesterfield is south to me.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    I'm guessing Lab 1st, Con 2nd - but if the turnout really is as low as ~30% then almost anything could happen, frankly.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited January 2017
    Although not as spectacular sounding, the biggest shortener of the day in this market is UKIP 5.5 into a low of 2.6, a 20% move
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    edited January 2017

    RobD said:

    To come from 4.2% to win the seat would be an amazing result for the LDs!

    That was in the special circumstances of the coalition. The world has changed and the LDs are winning all over the place. In Sunderland last night they went from 4% in 2015 to 45%.
    And they don't have to reach 45% in Stoke, anything above 30% probably wins it for them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    I'm guessing Lab 1st, Con 2nd - but if the turnout really is as low as ~30% then almost anything could happen, frankly.

    Pretty sure turnout will be low.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022

    I'm expecting a fairly comfortable Labour hold. Nothing in this Parliament's by-elections suggests anything different as yet. Meanwhile, Betfair is heading towards evens on Labour taking this seat. Seems like great value to me.

    Agreed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    RobD said:

    To come from 4.2% to win the seat would be an amazing result for the LDs!

    That was in the special circumstances of the coalition. The world has changed and the LDs are winning all over the place. In Sunderland last night they went from 4% in 2015 to 45%.
    If Leavers can't be arsed (and many voted in the referendum for the first in years, if ever), then LD may have a chance.
  • The lower the turnout the more important the PV operation will be. PV operations are tilted towards local incumbencies. Who held held/holds Stoke Central's MP/Councillor base ?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited January 2017
    Slightly counter intuitive, but if LibDems campaign hard on a Remain stance in Stoke, it will motivate UKIP to get out Leave voters. Probably not a great strategy in a big Leave area.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One open question is how the Conservatives will approach this seat. They were a whisker behind UKIP last time. Might they choose to soft pedal in order to give UKIP more of a chance?

    I'd have thought not. First, they might want to keep Mr Corbyn more secure, so they would not want to maximise the chances of another party winning. Secondly and probably more importantly, there are other seats in the area where they would see themselves as the primary challengers rather than UKIP and they wouldn't want to give the signal in those constituencies that UKIP were a local force.

    So UKIP are unlikely to get a free pass from the blue team.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I'm expecting a fairly comfortable Labour hold. Nothing in this Parliament's by-elections suggests anything different as yet. Meanwhile, Betfair is heading towards evens on Labour taking this seat. Seems like great value to me.

    I think so too. I will wait to see who the candidates will be though. It seems a rather feverish market at present.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited January 2017
    Book at bedtime

    Copeland

    Tories +27.55
    Labour +308.26
    Green -95.98
    Lib Dem +134.39
    UKIP -1222.2
    Someone else +276.23

    Stoke On Trent North

    Tories -109.58
    Labour +70.22
    Green -109.58
    Lib Dem -109.58
    UKIP -71.26
    Someone else -109.58

    DOUBLE !!

    Lab Both £20 @ 3.1-1
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    7/1 is still "reasonable value" on the Lib Dems? It's a view. Congrats on the 50/1 though.

    Any local thoughts?

    Is there going to be an independent again? Breeze did in 2015 at 6.8% in a GE.
    TBH I work there rather than live there, so this is a bit like asking a Canary Wharf commuter from Chelmsford their opinion on Poplar and Limehouse.

    The area is on the up, but from a very low base. Locals have clearly been disillusioned with Labour for a long time. The council is now run by a Ind/Con/UKIP coalition and I suppose the Ind council leader might fancy a run (I have no in-depth knowledge on this).
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    One open question is how the Conservatives will approach this seat. They were a whisker behind UKIP last time. Might they choose to soft pedal in order to give UKIP more of a chance?

    I'd have thought not. First, they might want to keep Mr Corbyn more secure, so they would not want to maximise the chances of another party winning. Secondly and probably more importantly, there are other seats in the area where they would see themselves as the primary challengers rather than UKIP and they wouldn't want to give the signal in those constituencies that UKIP were a local force.

    So UKIP are unlikely to get a free pass from the blue team.

    The early money says the Cons are the raqgs here. I'd have thought they'd rather a Leave MP than a hardcore remainer
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    The Telegraph has following statement on Stoke Central:

    "A total of 81,563 people in his constituency voted 'Leave' and just 36,027 voted 'Remain.'"

    Can this be right? By my reckoning that is 117,000 odd. Surely that is not one constituency? That is all of Stoke?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022

    One open question is how the Conservatives will approach this seat. They were a whisker behind UKIP last time. Might they choose to soft pedal in order to give UKIP more of a chance?

    I'd have thought not. First, they might want to keep Mr Corbyn more secure, so they would not want to maximise the chances of another party winning. Secondly and probably more importantly, there are other seats in the area where they would see themselves as the primary challengers rather than UKIP and they wouldn't want to give the signal in those constituencies that UKIP were a local force.

    So UKIP are unlikely to get a free pass from the blue team.

    Correct. The Tories don't want another UKIP threat emerging to them again post Brexit.

    I also think Theresa May thinks those votes are her votes (or, at least, they should be) so will fight for them.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    7/1 is still "reasonable value" on the Lib Dems? It's a view. Congrats on the 50/1 though.

    Any local thoughts?

    Is there going to be an independent again? Breeze did in 2015 at 6.8% in a GE.
    TBH I work there rather than live there, so this is a bit like asking a Canary Wharf commuter from Chelmsford their opinion on Poplar and Limehouse.

    The area is on the up, but from a very low base. Locals have clearly been disillusioned with Labour for a long time. The council is now run by a Ind/Con/UKIP coalition and I suppose the Ind council leader might fancy a run (I have no in-depth knowledge on this).
    I can have a go at that Poplar & Limehouse question from a commuters point of view!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    The Telegraph has following statement on Stoke Central:

    "A total of 81,563 people in his constituency voted 'Leave' and just 36,027 voted 'Remain.'"

    Can this be right? By my reckoning that is 117,000 odd. Surely that is not one constituency? That is all of Stoke?

    they desperately need new/more sub editors there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    RobD said:

    The Telegraph has following statement on Stoke Central:

    "A total of 81,563 people in his constituency voted 'Leave' and just 36,027 voted 'Remain.'"

    Can this be right? By my reckoning that is 117,000 odd. Surely that is not one constituency? That is all of Stoke?

    they desperately need new/more sub editors there.
    Yep. The demise of sub-editors on national newspapers is a crime.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    One open question is how the Conservatives will approach this seat. They were a whisker behind UKIP last time. Might they choose to soft pedal in order to give UKIP more of a chance?

    I'd have thought not. First, they might want to keep Mr Corbyn more secure, so they would not want to maximise the chances of another party winning. Secondly and probably more importantly, there are other seats in the area where they would see themselves as the primary challengers rather than UKIP and they wouldn't want to give the signal in those constituencies that UKIP were a local force.

    So UKIP are unlikely to get a free pass from the blue team.

    The early money says the Cons are the raqgs here. I'd have thought they'd rather a Leave MP than a hardcore remainer
    Pretty sure we'll be campaigning pretty hard, for the reasons Alastair gives. But UKIP v Lab is the 'natural' framing (partly because of those extra 33 votes at GE2015!)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I hope Shadsy keeps the multiple option open for the next GE.

    Big 300 seat Tory acca :)
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited January 2017
    The other issue is timing. If it's on the same day as Copeland then Stoke becomes more competitive simply because it's so so much easier for activists and journalists to get to. And the two smaller parties will have to pick one to target. Almost certainly Stoke as they have better historical bases there. I'd have thought that would take the pressure off Copeland Labour slightly. I suppose it comes down to other parties willingness to move the writs. It certainly suits Labour to wait till May 4th. Does anyone know for Stoke has council elections that day ? I assume it's a unitary ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022
    Can someone please opinion poll these seats?

    Ta.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Can someone please opinion poll these seats?

    Ta.

    Mate just make a price Im not going to have the mortgage on! :wink:
  • The other issue is timing. If it's on the same day as Copeland then Stoke becomes more competitive simply because it's so so much easier for activists and journalists to get to. And the two smaller parties will have to pick one to target. Almost certainly Stoke as they have better historical bases their. I'd has thought that would take the pressure off Copeland Labour slightly. I suppose it comes down to other parties willingness to move the writs. It certainly suits Labour to wait till May 4th. Does anyone know for Stoke has council elections that day ? I assume it's a unitary ?

    No local elections in Stoke this year. Copeland will have the Cumbria county council election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited January 2017

    Can someone please opinion poll these seats?

    Ta.

    Very few will publicly poll these seats, Scotland apart, the single seat constituency polling at GE2015 was pretty bad.

    The BMG Richmond Park poll had Zac winning by 27%!

    If it does cheer you up, BMG are now Labour's in house pollsters

    (Sorry Mike Turner and anyone else from BMG reading that, I love you all really)
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    One open question is how the Conservatives will approach this seat. They were a whisker behind UKIP last time. Might they choose to soft pedal in order to give UKIP more of a chance?

    I'd have thought not. First, they might want to keep Mr Corbyn more secure, so they would not want to maximise the chances of another party winning. Secondly and probably more importantly, there are other seats in the area where they would see themselves as the primary challengers rather than UKIP and they wouldn't want to give the signal in those constituencies that UKIP were a local force.

    So UKIP are unlikely to get a free pass from the blue team.

    The early money says the Cons are the raqgs here. I'd have thought they'd rather a Leave MP than a hardcore remainer
    Pretty sure we'll be campaigning pretty hard, for the reasons Alastair gives. But UKIP v Lab is the 'natural' framing (partly because of those extra 33 votes at GE2015!)
    All in all a very interesting betting heat indeed I would say!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    RobD said:

    The Telegraph has following statement on Stoke Central:

    "A total of 81,563 people in his constituency voted 'Leave' and just 36,027 voted 'Remain.'"

    Can this be right? By my reckoning that is 117,000 odd. Surely that is not one constituency? That is all of Stoke?

    they desperately need new/more sub editors there.
    Yep. The demise of sub-editors on national newspapers is a crime.
    Many seem to be short on journalists as well
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    there is a significant student vote in central stoke on trent serving Keele, Staffordshire Poly.
    I think 50/1 for LD's is a great bet given the council election result last night in sunderland. i would unscientifically put them at 3/1. I think that the minority remain vote will turn out religiously for the LD's. It is Labour's to lose and UKIP are the wild cards.
    Interesting times indeed.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Wish BF would have some consistency on having an 'Any Other' or not on by-elections.
  • RobD said:

    The Telegraph has following statement on Stoke Central:

    "A total of 81,563 people in his constituency voted 'Leave' and just 36,027 voted 'Remain.'"

    Can this be right? By my reckoning that is 117,000 odd. Surely that is not one constituency? That is all of Stoke?

    they desperately need new/more sub editors there.
    I don't know which is in more trouble, Labour or the Telegraph. Both are going down the pan.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Labour are actually only polling 4 points or so down on where they ended up in 2015...
    That reduction might well be lower in core labour seats.
    Then add in the fact that there is no main challenger to collect votes against labour - it won't be like Richmond Park where it was clearly a two horse race.

    All that makes me think Labour hold.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    O/T - something for the RMT to think about

    https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jan/13/uber-lyft-cars-public-transport-cities-commuting

    "What if Uber kills off public transport rather than cars?"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Omnium said:

    Wish BF would have some consistency on having an 'Any Other' or not on by-elections.

    Yes they shd price up with the Greens in too. Even if they are 1000-1 shots.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Pulpstar said:

    I hope Shadsy keeps the multiple option open for the next GE.

    Big 300 seat Tory acca :)

    You can always be Portilloed below the waterline.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    isam said:

    Slightly counter intuitive, but if LibDems campaign hard on a Remain stance in Stoke, it will motivate UKIP to get out Leave voters. Probably not a great strategy in a big Leave area.

    You mean it will motivate Leave voters to split away from Labour or the Tories? Sounds like a sound strategy to me.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    Have any of the writs been moved? Another possible variable here, given others are supposedly thinking about resigning as MPs (but they always say that don't they?) is whether Labour could end up calling x by-elections on the same day, forcing all the parties to choose which constituencies to carpet bomb with activists.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Bloody hell I didn't realise I'm 34 minutes away from Stoke, I wish it was further away.

    I'm amused to all these press reports saying Stoke is in the North.
    Anything south of Chesterfield is south to me.
    My mum's from Chesterfield and she says it's in the North. I'd agree. The University of Sheffield have it right in my opinion:

    http://tinyurl.com/hf2w9hb
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited January 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Pro_Rata said:

    Have any of the writs been moved? Another possible variable here, given others are supposedly thinking about resigning as MPs (but they always say that don't they?) is whether Labour could end up calling x by-elections on the same day, forcing all the parties to choose which constituencies to carpet bomb with activists.

    Dunno about you, but I'm stockpiling the Blue Nun!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    If Theresa comes up short on Brexit, UKIP will run well here.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Technical picture question: in early stages of trying to put together a print edition of Kingdom Asunder and one gripe the automatic thingummyjig throws up is low DPI (dots per inch) on the pictures involved (one [truncated] map, two family trees [just text I've shifted through 90 degrees]).

    Any ideas on improving the DPI?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Pro_Rata said:

    Have any of the writs been moved? Another possible variable here, given others are supposedly thinking about resigning as MPs (but they always say that don't they?) is whether Labour could end up calling x by-elections on the same day, forcing all the parties to choose which constituencies to carpet bomb with activists.

    The whole PLP could resign en masse and force a mini-GE. Not sure what's in it for them but it would be fun to watch...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    Mike...Would you be interested in a bet on who gets more votes... Lib Dems or UKIP in this by election? I think UKIP....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    I see an independent did okay (beat the Lib Dems and kept his deposit) in Stoke Central at the 2015 GE. That could definitely mix things up is someone gets a bit of momentum.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    Mike...Would you be interested in a bet on who gets more votes... Lib Dems or UKIP in this by election? I think UKIP....
    Shadsy often puts up such a market, and also on % shares.

    It is rare to lose money betting against the kippers.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    UKIP votes aren't driven by any desire to take control of the bin collection.

    Their by election results in this parliament

    Oldham W 23.4% (+2.8%)
    Sheffield B 19.9% (-2.2%)
    Ogmore 16.2% (+1.2%)
    Sleaford 13.5% (-2.2%)

    The remaining by elections are Tooting, Richmond, Witney and the walkover in Batley.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited January 2017

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    No one clued up though they had a chance in Oldham

    And although everyone here thought they were over priced in the Clacton and Rochester by elections last parliament, they were in fact big value.

    Also in Heywood and Middleton where they lost by 600 votes and were 14/1

    So to say they are always over priced is just plain wrong
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    Mike...Would you be interested in a bet on who gets more votes... Lib Dems or UKIP in this by election? I think UKIP....
    Shadsy often puts up such a market, and also on % shares.

    It is rare to lose money betting against the kippers.
    Really?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    Oldham West was in hindsight a very UKIP unfriendly seat with the large Pakistani populus there. I thought so initially, those reports of Lab getting turned away on the doorstep threw us all right off though.

    Copeland is a very low chance as they finished a distant third - I've laid them for four figures there.

    I think Sunderland last night had some local factors quite honestly...

    This looks by far their best shot in a long old time.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2017
    tlg86 said:

    Bloody hell I didn't realise I'm 34 minutes away from Stoke, I wish it was further away.

    I'm amused to all these press reports saying Stoke is in the North.
    Anything south of Chesterfield is south to me.
    My mum's from Chesterfield and she says it's in the North. I'd agree. The University of Sheffield have it right in my opinion:

    http://tinyurl.com/hf2w9hb
    Chesterfield feels like the North, but Derby feels like the Midlands, even though they're both in the same county, about 20 miles apart.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    No one clued up though they had a chance in Oldham
    Strikes me that if they can't win Stoke Central then all this about 'taking the North from Labour' is absolute rot. It must be their best chance by miles given John Harris' reports from the frontline.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://www.ft.com/content/806f89b2-d976-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

    "Mr Corbyn is facing up to six by-elections this year, with other contests in Leigh, where Andy Burnham is quitting to stand for mayor of Greater Manchester, and in Liverpool Walton, where Steve Rotheram is leaving to stand for mayor of Liverpool. There are also concerns among the Parliamentary Labour party that two other MPs could stand down this year because of ill health."
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    Mike...Would you be interested in a bet on who gets more votes... Lib Dems or UKIP in this by election? I think UKIP....
    Shadsy often puts up such a market, and also on % shares.

    It is rare to lose money betting against the kippers.
    I don't have an account with them.
    Happy to bet with you if you want?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    You could argue that it won the most significant vote in many years mind you.

    I generally agree though, but it feels dangerous to lay ukip when Labour are weak. Of course the reality is that it's only ever proved dangerous to lay ukip where the Tories are weak.

    LDs seem to be doing great things, but its pretty clear that its not Farron, and its pretty hard to work out what it might be.

    I think Stoke will finish up as safe Labour - Hunt hardly represented the community, but Copeland I think will go Tory on the basis of Corbyn. In both seats I think 'Any other' at very long odds is a good bet. This is precisely the right electoral time for someone to try to make a splash with a new party.

    I find myself with quite a lot of open bets at the moment.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    tlg86 said:

    I see an independent did okay (beat the Lib Dems and kept his deposit) in Stoke Central at the 2015 GE. That could definitely mix things up is someone gets a bit of momentum.

    That was a well-known local Labour activist who was cross about Hunt being drafted in from London. Bit like what happened in Blaenau Gwent, which has now gone back to Labour.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    No one clued up though they had a chance in Oldham
    Strikes me that if they can't win Stoke Central then all this about 'taking the North from Labour' is absolute rot. It must be their best chance by miles given John Harris' reports from the frontline.
    UKIP post-referendum have utterly failed to articulate what they stand for rather than against. Nuttall's call to bring back blue passports and crowns on pint glasses sums up their irrelevance.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    No one clued up though they had a chance in Oldham
    Strikes me that if they can't win Stoke Central then all this about 'taking the North from Labour' is absolute rot. It must be their best chance by miles given John Harris' reports from the frontline.
    They should be expected to do well here I agree. If they don't it will be v disappointing. The others Mike lists are nonsense.

    I loved the write up on here when the lib Dems came 2nd in Witney!!! Praise was heaped upon them, yet When Ukip used to do that it was an abject failure!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Stoke Central May 2015:

    Left 47.1 (Lab/LD/Grn)
    Right 45.2 (Con/UKIP)
    Others 7.7
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    No one clued up though they had a chance in Oldham
    Strikes me that if they can't win Stoke Central then all this about 'taking the North from Labour' is absolute rot. It must be their best chance by miles given John Harris' reports from the frontline.
    UKIP post-referendum have utterly failed to articulate what they stand for rather than against. Nuttall's call to bring back blue passports and crowns on pint glasses sums up their irrelevance.
    are they still saying that I will need to wear a tie when I got to the theatre?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    Oldham West was in hindsight a very UKIP unfriendly seat with the large Pakistani populus there. I thought so initially, those reports of Lab getting turned away on the doorstep threw us all right off though.

    Copeland is a very low chance as they finished a distant third - I've laid them for four figures there.

    I think Sunderland last night had some local factors quite honestly...

    This looks by far their best shot in a long old time.
    The local factors in Sunderland last night should have helped UKIP. They failed.

    UKIP has yet to prove itself able in FPTP elections.
    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    Mike...Would you be interested in a bet on who gets more votes... Lib Dems or UKIP in this by election? I think UKIP....
    I don't do bets with people on the site after a bad experience which cost me £500 some years ago. Because of who I am I'd have to honour the bet. The arsehole who lost simply disappeared.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    chestnut said:

    Stoke Central May 2015:

    Left 47.1 (Lab/LD/Grn)
    Right 45.2 (Con/UKIP)
    Others 7.7

    The Lib Dems are the only true small-c conservative vote at the moment when every other party is prepared to risk losing the single market.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    Oldham West was in hindsight a very UKIP unfriendly seat with the large Pakistani populus there. I thought so initially, those reports of Lab getting turned away on the doorstep threw us all right off though.

    Copeland is a very low chance as they finished a distant third - I've laid them for four figures there.

    I think Sunderland last night had some local factors quite honestly...

    This looks by far their best shot in a long old time.
    Yes.

    And things have moved on.

    Corbyn is no longer the fresh new leader. Brexit has been voted for, yet not delivered.

    Events of an Article 50 nature could move this result enormously.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    chestnut said:

    Stoke Central May 2015:

    Left 47.1 (Lab/LD/Grn)
    Right 45.2 (Con/UKIP)
    Others 7.7

    Shame the Progressive Alliance isn't actually an alliance.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    Oldham West was in hindsight a very UKIP unfriendly seat with the large Pakistani populus there. I thought so initially, those reports of Lab getting turned away on the doorstep threw us all right off though.

    Copeland is a very low chance as they finished a distant third - I've laid them for four figures there.

    I think Sunderland last night had some local factors quite honestly...

    This looks by far their best shot in a long old time.
    UKIP's private polling a few days before voting in Oldham said they were with in a chance of winning.

    IIRC UKIP were saying their private polling they had reduced Labour's lead from something like 35% to like 5% and the momentum was all going to UKIP.
  • AndyJS said:

    tlg86 said:

    Bloody hell I didn't realise I'm 34 minutes away from Stoke, I wish it was further away.

    I'm amused to all these press reports saying Stoke is in the North.
    Anything south of Chesterfield is south to me.
    My mum's from Chesterfield and she says it's in the North. I'd agree. The University of Sheffield have it right in my opinion:

    http://tinyurl.com/hf2w9hb
    Chesterfield feels like the North, but Derby feels like the Midlands, even though they're both in the same county, about 20 miles apart.
    I don't like that line.

    We discussed Derbyshire on here a few weeks ago, it is a curious county.

    It stretches from next to Manchester to Nottingham.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    The FT is reporting that Labour may face at least six by-elections this year. In addition to Copeland and Stoke Central, there'll be Leigh and Liverpool Walton after the Liverpool and Manchester mayoral elections (which Labour seems nailed on to win, of course,) and there are "also concerns among the Parliamentary Labour party that two other MPs could stand down this year because of ill health."

    https://www.ft.com/content/806f89b2-d976-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

    All of that's before we consider the possibility of any more Labour MPs finding something better to do elsewhere and throwing in the towel. Or any of the more sick or elderly ones succumbing to the scythe of mortality.

    One wonders how frequently this has to happen before the public starts to notice the trend, and it becomes a running joke? The one thing more dangerous for Labour than being viewed as incompetent is to be regarded as genuinely ridiculous.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    chestnut said:

    Stoke Central May 2015:

    Left 47.1 (Lab/LD/Grn)
    Right 45.2 (Con/UKIP)
    Others 7.7

    The Lib Dems are the only true small-c conservative vote at the moment when every other party is prepared to risk losing the single market.
    lol

    the single market vote isnt small c conservative, it's Big C Corporatist
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    chestnut said:

    Stoke Central May 2015:

    Left 47.1 (Lab/LD/Grn)
    Right 45.2 (Con/UKIP)
    Others 7.7

    Shame the Progressive Alliance isn't actually an alliance.
    Nor progressive. (As in they don't like progress)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The north starts at N1. The clue is in the postcode.
  • chestnut said:

    Stoke Central May 2015:

    Left 47.1 (Lab/LD/Grn)
    Right 45.2 (Con/UKIP)
    Others 7.7

    The Lib Dems are the only true small-c conservative vote at the moment when every other party is prepared to risk losing the single market.
    lol

    the single market vote isnt small c conservative, it's Big C Corporatist
    The Single Market was Margaret Thatcher's finest achievement as Prime Minister, just ahead of her government's policies on grammar schools.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    The north starts at N1. The clue is in the postcode.

    The M4 is a nice demarcation line.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    chestnut said:

    Stoke Central May 2015:

    Left 47.1 (Lab/LD/Grn)
    Right 45.2 (Con/UKIP)
    Others 7.7

    The Lib Dems are the only true small-c conservative vote at the moment when every other party is prepared to risk losing the single market.
    lol

    the single market vote isnt small c conservative, it's Big C Corporatist
    The Single Market was Margaret Thatcher's finest achievement as Prime Minister, just ahead of her government's policies on grammar schools.
    and what ?

    you think Mrs T didnt call some things wrong ?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    No one clued up though they had a chance in Oldham
    Strikes me that if they can't win Stoke Central then all this about 'taking the North from Labour' is absolute rot. It must be their best chance by miles given John Harris' reports from the frontline.
    UKIP post-referendum have utterly failed to articulate what they stand for rather than against. Nuttall's call to bring back blue passports and crowns on pint glasses sums up their irrelevance.
    are they still saying that I will need to wear a tie when I got to the theatre?
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    Mike...Would you be interested in a bet on who gets more votes... Lib Dems or UKIP in this by election? I think UKIP....
    Shadsy often puts up such a market, and also on % shares.

    It is rare to lose money betting against the kippers.
    I don't have an account with them.
    Happy to bet with you if you want?
    I do bet on this site, but will wait for a date and the candidates. I may be willing closer to the time.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    Oldham West was in hindsight a very UKIP unfriendly seat with the large Pakistani populus there. I thought so initially, those reports of Lab getting turned away on the doorstep threw us all right off though.

    Copeland is a very low chance as they finished a distant third - I've laid them for four figures there.

    I think Sunderland last night had some local factors quite honestly...

    This looks by far their best shot in a long old time.
    The local factors in Sunderland last night should have helped UKIP. They failed.

    UKIP has yet to prove itself able in FPTP elections.
    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd price it up:

    Lab 4-6
    UKIP 5-2
    Lib Dems 10-1
    Tories 15-1
    Greens 100-1

    If I was a bookie.

    I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.

    At every by-election UKIP is always over-priced. Apart from defector/incumbents it has NEVER won a Westminster seat.

    Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.

    At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.

    In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.

    Mike...Would you be interested in a bet on who gets more votes... Lib Dems or UKIP in this by election? I think UKIP....
    I don't do bets with people on the site after a bad experience which cost me £500 some years ago. Because of who I am I'd have to honour the bet. The arsehole who lost simply disappeared.

    Fair enough... I understand entirely.

    Would it change your mind if I offered (as the more anonymous party) to transfer your winnings in advance of the result and relied on you to transfer them back (plus your losses) in the event I'm successful?

    I was thinking say £20 or so...
  • This new post Brexit map of the UK has clearly demarcation of the North/South boundary

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/819971832900161537
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    The north starts at N1. The clue is in the postcode.

    Ah that explains why most of Labour's Northern MPs are true Northerners after all.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    The north starts at N1. The clue is in the postcode.

    er Hackney, Islington, Camden? - It's tough up north London don't you know...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    The north starts at N1. The clue is in the postcode.

    the North starts at Newry
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    chestnut said:

    Stoke Central May 2015:

    Left 47.1 (Lab/LD/Grn)
    Right 45.2 (Con/UKIP)
    Others 7.7

    The Lib Dems are the only true small-c conservative vote at the moment when every other party is prepared to risk losing the single market.
    lol

    the single market vote isnt small c conservative, it's Big C Corporatist
    The Single Market was Margaret Thatcher's finest achievement as Prime Minister, just ahead of her government's policies on grammar schools.
    and what ?

    you think Mrs T didnt call some things wrong ?
    I doubt many people would have any problem with the Single Market, if they got rid of the free movement of people and introduced a more controlled approach.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Stoke-on-Trent central has a lot of students in it, two Universities are in this seat IIRC. I think UK poling report mentions 14% of the population are in full time higher education. Labour under Corbyn might appeal to this group of people as opposed to the 13% of the population that are retired. Only problem is the young don't vote in as high numbers as the old.

    Further information is here:

    http://tinyurl.com/zbgf29x

    Stoke-on-Trent is not the horrible place it used to be, it has dramatically improved from the hell on earth it was in the 1960s! Still I would not want to live in that city!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The north starts at N1. The clue is in the postcode.

    The Northern line starts in Morden, so surely that is the geographical spot?
  • The FT is reporting that Labour may face at least six by-elections this year. In addition to Copeland and Stoke Central, there'll be Leigh and Liverpool Walton after the Liverpool and Manchester mayoral elections (which Labour seems nailed on to win, of course,) and there are "also concerns among the Parliamentary Labour party that two other MPs could stand down this year because of ill health."

    https://www.ft.com/content/806f89b2-d976-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

    All of that's before we consider the possibility of any more Labour MPs finding something better to do elsewhere and throwing in the towel. Or any of the more sick or elderly ones succumbing to the scythe of mortality.

    One wonders how frequently this has to happen before the public starts to notice the trend, and it becomes a running joke? The one thing more dangerous for Labour than being viewed as incompetent is to be regarded as genuinely ridiculous.

    This is the email the Tories have sent out in the last hour, subject header 'Enough is enough'

    This is a serious time for our country. And we need a strong, united Government that will deliver on the things that matter to people.

    This week Labour have proven they can’t deliver and have shown just how out of touch, chaotic and incompetent they are.

    You can help ensure a strong team across Britain by donating to our 2017 campaign today.

    Five Days of Labour Chaos

    On Monday, Labour said Jeremy Corbyn would give a speech in favour of controlling immigration.

    On Tuesday, the Labour leader U-turned, saying that Labour will not take control over immigration; then told millions of strike-affected commuters he would stand with his union paymasters on the picket lines rather than stand up for them.

    On Wednesday, Labour’s former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith told Corbyn’s team to “get your a***s in gear and stop embarrassing our party.”

    On Thursday, Labour suggested that NATO should stop protecting Estonia from Russian aggression.

    And today, Tristram Hunt - Labour MP and former shadow Education Secretary - announced he will quit Parliament.

    The British people need a party who will speak for the ordinary working people of Britain and build a country that works for everyone. Labour can’t do it. Only the Conservatives will.

    Donate to our campaign today and together we can build a country that works for everyone.

    Thank you for your support,

    Conservative Campaign Headquarters
  • The north starts at N1. The clue is in the postcode.

    the North starts at Newry
    It has always amused me that the Northern most part of the island of Ireland isn't in Northern Ireland, but the Republic.
This discussion has been closed.