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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Copeland is still the better bet for the Lib Dems

The Tories love governing, Labour loves protesting and the Lib Dem love winning elections. With the return to form of the Lib Dems in gaining by-elections, all is now once again well with the world. They might still be languishing in fourth place in the national polls but in actual elections, Farron’s party has been performing admirably well over the last year and in particular over the last few months.

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PClipp

First. But in the present climate, I see no reason why the Lib Dems could not win both. New members are very much fired up and keen to get stuck in to the Tories and their little helpers in the Labour Party.

RobD

Glorious Second!

HYUFD

The Tories will throw everything at Copeland and next to nothing at Stoke, Labour will have to campaign in both, UKIP will focus on Stoke so if the LDs want to focus on Copeland that is up to them but they are starting from a very low base in both

HYUFD

PClipp said:

First. But in the present climate, I see no reason why the Lib Dems could not win both. New members are very much fired up and keen to get stuck in to the Tories and their little helpers in the Labour Party.

As both are staunch Leave areas and these are parliamentary by elections not local elections, the only competitive parliamentary by election in a Leave area since Brexit saw the LDs increase their voteshare but they still came third

YellowSubmarine

Brexit committee demands transitional deal and parliamentary vote

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/14/brexit-committee-demands-transitional-deal-and-parliamentary-vote?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

williamglenn

FPT, re Sarah Wollaston, I would think she'd hold her seat easily as a Lib Dem at the next election if they could persuade her to defect.

williamglenn

If it's the economy stupid, Merkel could do unexpectedly well in the election:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/819844911033962497

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

If it's the economy stupid, Merkel could do unexpectedly well in the election:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/819844911033962497

She will come first regardless but the AfD will likely come third regardless so it will be another Grand Coalition with the SDP for her

stjohn

williamglenn said:

If it's the economy stupid, Merkel could do unexpectedly well in the election:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/819844911033962497

I'm guessing schlecht is not gut? Schlecht doesn't sound very gut. Teils on the other hand sounds more 50/50. Heads you win, Teils you lose.

MyBurningEars

FPT

FrancisUrquhart said:

Married Calais Jungle charity chief who insisted volunteers should not have sex with migrants 'had a year-long affair with a toyboy Tunisian bodyguard she met in the camp'

Clare Mosely's relationship with Mohamed Bajjar was 'well known' in The Jungle

The 46-year-old set up Care4Calais in 2015, which had strict no sex rules

It is alleged she moved in with the 27-year-old Tunisian, known as Kimo

She has now split up with him because she fears he conned her out of thousands

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4119040/Married-Calais-Jungle-charity-chief-insisted-volunteers-not-sex-migrants-year-long-affair-toyboy-Tunisian-bodyguard-met-camp.html

Back when I did my teacher-training, a very successful teacher (whether pedagogically inspiring or not I couldn't judge, but at this stage of my training I interpreted "successful" almost exclusively in terms of classroom control, and his was godlike - the kids were awestruck) decided to let me in on the secret to understanding, manipulating and then reprojecting teenage behaviour. It's all about sex. All of it. Yes, well, clearly a major factor in adolescent development, hormones and peer pressure and all that - wait, but what? All of it? Like why they feel the need to behave like little monkeys? Why little Johnny keeps forgetting his exercise book and why his half-completed work is produced only in an illegibly lackadaisical spider-scrawl? Yes, all of it.

A diatribe followed. Cod psych 101. The malaise and angry misbehaviour stems from sexual frustration, the attention-seeking from a quest for sexually dominant status. No citations to the relevant literature. An anecdatal evidence base shorn of p-values and confidence intervals. A slight discomfort that a late-middle-aged man should be describing in such painstaking detail, and with obvious relish, the erotic lusts of his 14-year-old charges.

As time rolls by, the more convinced I am that the bugger was right. And not just about the bloody teenagers.

FeersumEnjineeya

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

If it's the economy stupid, Merkel could do unexpectedly well in the election:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/819844911033962497

She will come first regardless but the AfD will likely come third regardless so it will be another Grand Coalition with the SDP for her

I'm not sure the SDP would go for it again. They're suffering terribly in the polls from being the junior coalition partner. Perhaps Merkel will have to cobble something together with the FDP and Greens?

In other (German) news, I see that France is struggling to keep the lights on. Apparently 10 of its nukes are down for emergency safety checks after faulty steel was found to have been used in them. The country is currently relying on imports from Germany, Belgium, the UK and Spain, but a forecast cold spell next week could push things over the edge.

Could this have any effect on support for nuclear power at Sellafield, he says, weakly trying to link to the subject of the thread? Go Lib Dems, by the way!

HYUFD

FeersumEnjineeya said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

If it's the economy stupid, Merkel could do unexpectedly well in the election:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/819844911033962497

She will come first regardless but the AfD will likely come third regardless so it will be another Grand Coalition with the SDP for her

I'm not sure the SDP would go for it again. They're suffering terribly in the polls from being the junior coalition partner. Perhaps Merkel will have to cobble something together with the FDP and Greens?

In other (German) news, I see that France is struggling to keep the lights on. Apparently 10 of its nukes are down for emergency safety checks after faulty steel was found to have been used in them. The country is currently relying on imports from Germany, Belgium, the UK and Spain, but a forecast cold spell next week could push things over the edge.

Could this have any effect on support for nuclear power at Sellafield, he says, weakly trying to link to the subject of the thread? Go Lib Dems, by the way!

The FDP are not even in the Bundestag at present and may not be in September either, the Greens alone would not be enough and Die Linke are beyond the pale so there may be no alternative depending on how the seats stack up

MyBurningEars

(ctd, albeit incoherently)

In the biggest, bestest pussy-grabbiest election in US history, sex was right, left, centre, up and down the whole campaign. The prospect of Madam President. The Donald's hair as a proxy for talking about the Trumpcock. The Donald's handspan as a proxy for the Trumpcock. Marco Rubio's cock as a proxy for the Trumpcock. "News" reports from the campaign, written by proper serious-looking journalists, read like extracts from JG Ballard's climactic Why I Want to F*** Ronald Reagan.

At this rate, so long as the good swing voters of Copeland and Stoke - and be these not bountifully swinging locales? - believe Nick Farron boasts a bigger better boner than Jezza, the Lib Dems are going to smash it.

What screws the Kippers is that Brexit just isn't sexy. Never was. The Outers didn't turn up to the ballot box in a red, white and blue orgy of nationalistic auto-eroticism. The misbehaving voters were acting out their frustration over their million malaises - and reasserting their dominance over old political masters. The howl is vented. For most Leave voters, the prospect of a good hard proper Brexiting causes little nether-arousal.

The polls suggests that salivating Brexiteers are rare, and plenty more who voted for the deed have performance anxiety issues about it. Contra the more vigorous Remainers, this doesn't mean these voters have refuted their consent, but I suspect the so-called "surge" that's supposing sweeping the world (I'm a sceptic) will not malinger in force around provincial England for its seconds. A one-day stand.

nunu

Isn't freedom of movement a beautiful thing.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4118054/Jamshid-Piruz-jailed-hammer-attack-two-police-officers.html

edmundintokyo

nunu said:

Isn't freedom of movement a beautiful thing.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4118054/Jamshid-Piruz-jailed-hammer-attack-two-police-officers.html

Things you can't do with border controls, episode 34: Deny entry to psychos.

Why? Because the guy at the border doesn't know he's a psycho.

I wonder whether the British will still be trying to get access to the EU information-sharing system after Brexit.

AlsoIndigo

edmundintokyo said:

nunu said:

Isn't freedom of movement a beautiful thing.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4118054/Jamshid-Piruz-jailed-hammer-attack-two-police-officers.html

Things you can't do with border controls, episode 34: Deny entry to psychos.

Why? Because the guy at the border doesn't know he's a psycho.

I wonder whether the British will still be trying to get access to the EU information-sharing system after Brexit.

Things you can do. Throw them out once you find out and deny them future entry. Look closely at their associates and decide if it is in the national interest to admit any of them either.

The UK having by far the best intelligence gathering capability in the EU suggests it is them that will be asking us to be in.

edmundintokyo

AlsoIndigo said:

edmundintokyo said:

nunu said:

Isn't freedom of movement a beautiful thing.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4118054/Jamshid-Piruz-jailed-hammer-attack-two-police-officers.html

Things you can't do with border controls, episode 34: Deny entry to psychos.

Why? Because the guy at the border doesn't know he's a psycho.

I wonder whether the British will still be trying to get access to the EU information-sharing system after Brexit.

Things you can do. Throw them out once you find out and deny them future entry. Look closely at their associates and decide if it is in the national interest to admit any of them either.

The UK having by far the best intelligence gathering capability in the EU suggests it is them that will be asking us to be in.

Read the report, the UK could have refused this guy entry already, they didn't know he was a psycho.

AlsoIndigo

edmundintokyo said:

AlsoIndigo said:

edmundintokyo said:

nunu said:

Isn't freedom of movement a beautiful thing.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4118054/Jamshid-Piruz-jailed-hammer-attack-two-police-officers.html

Things you can't do with border controls, episode 34: Deny entry to psychos.

Why? Because the guy at the border doesn't know he's a psycho.

I wonder whether the British will still be trying to get access to the EU information-sharing system after Brexit.

Things you can do. Throw them out once you find out and deny them future entry. Look closely at their associates and decide if it is in the national interest to admit any of them either.

The UK having by far the best intelligence gathering capability in the EU suggests it is them that will be asking us to be in.

Read the report, the UK could have refused this guy entry already, they didn't know he was a psycho.

Yes I know. How does that detract from anything I said ?

rkrkrk

This Trump - Russia story/scandal is becoming increasingly bipartisan:
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/burr-says-intel-panel-will-investigate-possible-russia-trump-links-233621

Seems as though this story will just keep on going... But will any of it matter to Republican voters ?

Innocent_Abroad

AlsoIndigo said:

edmundintokyo said:

nunu said:

Isn't freedom of movement a beautiful thing.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4118054/Jamshid-Piruz-jailed-hammer-attack-two-police-officers.html

Things you can't do with border controls, episode 34: Deny entry to psychos.

Why? Because the guy at the border doesn't know he's a psycho.

I wonder whether the British will still be trying to get access to the EU information-sharing system after Brexit.

Things you can do. Throw them out once you find out and deny them future entry. Look closely at their associates and decide if it is in the national interest to admit any of them either.

The UK having by far the best intelligence gathering capability in the EU suggests it is them that will be asking us to be in.

There'd be even fewer if we killed all the lefties and liberal intellectuals as well, eh?

Sandpit

Morning. Surprised that no-one has yet made the joke about the importance of A50 to the residents of Stoke-on-Trent.

rkrkrk

Sandpit said:

Morning. Surprised that no-one has yet made the joke about the importance of A50 to the residents of Stoke-on-Trent.

We should all collectively be ashamed it took this long.

AlastairMeeks

To be clear: these are two seats where the Lib Dems lost their deposits at the last election. If they get into double digits in vote share in both, that would be solid progress. A victory in either would be truly sensational. Both of these should be easy Labour holds. The fact that both are seen as interesting means either that we've all got too febrile or that politics has got too febrile. For the moment, I'm taking the view that it's basically us.

Sandpit

AlastairMeeks said:

To be clear: these are two seats where the Lib Dems lost their deposits at the last election. If they get into double digits in vote share in both, that would be solid progress. A victory in either would be truly sensational. Both of these should be easy Labour holds. The fact that both are seen as interesting means either that we've all got too febrile or that politics has got too febrile. For the moment, I'm taking the view that it's basically us.

Yes. Realistically Stoke should be a Labour hold, with an almighty scrap for second behind them, especially if a local Indy gets involved as well.
Copeland is the more likely upset, but the betting value is still with the red team at 2.7, the Tories shouldn't be odds-on.

foxinsoxuk

AlastairMeeks said:

To be clear: these are two seats where the Lib Dems lost their deposits at the last election. If they get into double digits in vote share in both, that would be solid progress. A victory in either would be truly sensational. Both of these should be easy Labour holds. The fact that both are seen as interesting means either that we've all got too febrile or that politics has got too febrile. For the moment, I'm taking the view that it's basically us.

I forecast both as Labour holds with LDs on about 15-20%, kippers around 10% in each. Neither seat likes carpet baggers so it would be foolish for Nutall to stand. On the other hand serial Westminster electoral failure didnt harm Farage politically. Labour is the value bet in both.

Roger

I can't remember a time when we've had three less inspiring parties or leaders.

Why would anyone go out on a drizzly evening in Stoke to vote for a party led by Corbyn-by a distance the worst Labour leader ever-or May the most feeble PM since John Major?

The two protest parties UKIP and the Lib Dems have to be in with a good chance. UKIP have a glass ceiling of around 30% so I fancy the Lib Dems

tlg86

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be clear: these are two seats where the Lib Dems lost their deposits at the last election. If they get into double digits in vote share in both, that would be solid progress. A victory in either would be truly sensational. Both of these should be easy Labour holds. The fact that both are seen as interesting means either that we've all got too febrile or that politics has got too febrile. For the moment, I'm taking the view that it's basically us.

I forecast both as Labour holds with LDs on about 15-20%, kippers around 10% in each. Neither seat likes carpet baggers so it would be foolish for Nutall to stand. On the other hand serial Westminster electoral failure didnt harm Farage politically. Labour is the value bet in both.

I disagree. I think Nuttall should stand in Stoke. I don't know how these things work, but would it mean that the media couldn't talk to him without talking to the other candidates? Or does his position as Ukip leader negate that issue?

Alanbrooke

Innocent_Abroad said:

AlsoIndigo said:

edmundintokyo said:

nunu said:

Isn't freedom of movement a beautiful thing.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4118054/Jamshid-Piruz-jailed-hammer-attack-two-police-officers.html

Things you can't do with border controls, episode 34: Deny entry to psychos.

Why? Because the guy at the border doesn't know he's a psycho.

I wonder whether the British will still be trying to get access to the EU information-sharing system after Brexit.

Things you can do. Throw them out once you find out and deny them future entry. Look closely at their associates and decide if it is in the national interest to admit any of them either.

The UK having by far the best intelligence gathering capability in the EU suggests it is them that will be asking us to be in.

There'd be even fewer if we killed all the lefties and liberal intellectuals as well, eh?

most liberals arent that intellectual, they just think they are.

Roger

OT Tip for the week-end.

Man Utd are 16/1 for the league. If they win this weekend (likely) and Chelsea and Man City don't win (likely) the odds will very likely halve.

foxinsoxuk

tlg86 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be clear: these are two seats where the Lib Dems lost their deposits at the last election. If they get into double digits in vote share in both, that would be solid progress. A victory in either would be truly sensational. Both of these should be easy Labour holds. The fact that both are seen as interesting means either that we've all got too febrile or that politics has got too febrile. For the moment, I'm taking the view that it's basically us.

I forecast both as Labour holds with LDs on about 15-20%, kippers around 10% in each. Neither seat likes carpet baggers so it would be foolish for Nutall to stand. On the other hand serial Westminster electoral failure didnt harm Farage politically. Labour is the value bet in both.

I disagree. I think Nuttall should stand in Stoke. I don't know how these things work, but would it mean that the media couldn't talk to him without talking to the other candidates? Or does his position as Ukip leader negate that issue?

I would be happy to see Nuttall stand in Stoke. I expect he would be in 3rd or 4th place and the kipper Northern gambit in smithereens. Job done.

tlg86

foxinsoxuk said:

tlg86 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be clear: these are two seats where the Lib Dems lost their deposits at the last election. If they get into double digits in vote share in both, that would be solid progress. A victory in either would be truly sensational. Both of these should be easy Labour holds. The fact that both are seen as interesting means either that we've all got too febrile or that politics has got too febrile. For the moment, I'm taking the view that it's basically us.

I forecast both as Labour holds with LDs on about 15-20%, kippers around 10% in each. Neither seat likes carpet baggers so it would be foolish for Nutall to stand. On the other hand serial Westminster electoral failure didnt harm Farage politically. Labour is the value bet in both.

I disagree. I think Nuttall should stand in Stoke. I don't know how these things work, but would it mean that the media couldn't talk to him without talking to the other candidates? Or does his position as Ukip leader negate that issue?

I would be happy to see Nuttall stand in Stoke. I expect he would be in 3rd or 4th place and the kipper Northern gambit in smithereens. Job done.

Alternatively, if Ukip do badly I suspect it's because A50 has been triggered and Brexit is proceeding as planned. So, yes, job done.

SquareRoot

Nuttall might have other opportunities.. It could be that more Labour MP's desert the sinking ship.

SquareRoot

Roger said:

I can't remember a time when we've had three less inspiring parties or leaders.

Why would anyone go out on a drizzly evening in Stoke to vote for a party led by Corbyn-by a distance the worst Labour leader ever-or May the most feeble PM since John Major?

The two protest parties UKIP and the Lib Dems have to be in with a good chance. UKIP have a glass ceiling of around 30% so I fancy the Lib Dems

I feel for you Roger, your party is in a hell of a mess. You are not alone in seeking out an alternative.

logical_song

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

If it's the economy stupid, Merkel could do unexpectedly well in the election:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/819844911033962497

She will come first regardless but the AfD will likely come third regardless so it will be another Grand Coalition with the SDP for her

It's SPD

foxinsoxuk

Roger said:

OT Tip for the week-end.

Man Utd are 16/1 for the league. If they win this weekend (likely) and Chelsea and Man City don't win (likely) the odds will very likely halve.

Not a bad tip. Despite their dull football ManU are doing well.

Clelsea going to win today at Leicester though. Even without Costa they have a great team. Kante is the best Defensive midfielder in the League, quite possibly the world. It will be interesting to see Ndidi and Drinkwater up against him.

SouthamObserver

SquareRoot said:

Nuttall might have other opportunities.. It could be that more Labour MP's desert the sinking ship.

If UKIP can't win in Stoke then they are not going to give Labour a fight anywhere at the GE.

SouthamObserver

rkrkrk said:

This Trump - Russia story/scandal is becoming increasingly bipartisan:
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/burr-says-intel-panel-will-investigate-possible-russia-trump-links-233621

Seems as though this story will just keep on going... But will any of it matter to Republican voters ?

It may matter to Democrat voters. There are more of them, but they are usually less committed. Voting against Trump and the party that backs him may prove motivating.

That said, we can expect relentless GOP voter suppression efforts over the coming years.

Roger

foxinsoxuk said:

Roger said:

OT Tip for the week-end.

Man Utd are 16/1 for the league. If they win this weekend (likely) and Chelsea and Man City don't win (likely) the odds will very likely halve.

Not a bad tip. Despite their dull football ManU are doing well.

Clelsea going to win today at Leicester though. Even without Costa they have a great team. Kante is the best Defensive midfielder in the League, quite possibly the world. It will be interesting to see Ndidi and Drinkwater up against him.

I agree with most of that particularly that Maurinho's dull football has now been imported to Old Trafford (and no one has noticed)

.....But Chelsea are brittle as we saw last season and the Costa affair could easily unsettle them and Leicester can turn it on against the better teams so I think a draw is easily possible

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

I think May's approach to GPs will prove counter-productive in practice (ahem) and the public's eye, but there we are.

Roger

SouthamObserver said:

rkrkrk said:

This Trump - Russia story/scandal is becoming increasingly bipartisan:
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/burr-says-intel-panel-will-investigate-possible-russia-trump-links-233621

Seems as though this story will just keep on going... But will any of it matter to Republican voters ?

It may matter to Democrat voters. There are more of them, but they are usually less committed. Voting against Trump and the party that backs him may prove motivating.

That said, we can expect relentless GOP voter suppression efforts over the coming years.

Interesting that Obama's approval ratings are now standing at 55% and Trumps at 37% apparently the lowest of any incoming president. I posted the link yesterday.

So not everyone loves him

SquareRoot

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

I think May's approach to GPs will prove counter-productive in practice (ahem) and the public's eye, but there we are.

Why? GP's are paid huge sums. Since they got the golden settlement from Labour they have reduced what they do. Pretty much ALL on call has gone (in my area) and in my practice after close of surgery at about 5.30pm on Friday you get sweet fanny adams from them till Monday morning. Its then the useless 111(service) if you can call it that , A and E or an ambulance That's part of the reason why A and E and the ambulance service are overloaded IMHO.

SouthamObserver

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

I think May's approach to GPs will prove counter-productive in practice (ahem) and the public's eye, but there we are.

It just shows - yet again - that she is totally out of her depth.

foxinsoxuk

Roger said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Roger said:

OT Tip for the week-end.

Man Utd are 16/1 for the league. If they win this weekend (likely) and Chelsea and Man City don't win (likely) the odds will very likely halve.

Not a bad tip. Despite their dull football ManU are doing well.

Clelsea going to win today at Leicester though. Even without Costa they have a great team. Kante is the best Defensive midfielder in the League, quite possibly the world. It will be interesting to see Ndidi and Drinkwater up against him.

I agree with most of that particularly that Maurinho's dull football has now been imported to Old Trafford (and no one has noticed)

.....But Chelsea are brittle as we saw last season and the Costa affair could easily unsettle them and Leicester can turn it on against the better teams so I think a draw is easily possible

Musa is like greased lightning, makes Vardy look sluggish. He is Leicesters best chance of a goal.

DecrepitJohnL

nunu said:

Isn't freedom of movement a beautiful thing.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4118054/Jamshid-Piruz-jailed-hammer-attack-two-police-officers.html

Who was Home Secretary in 2015 and why is it an article of faith that the Prime Minister will be able or even wants to drastically cut immigration after Brexit?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

SouthamObserver

Great Guardian lead story today. And encouraging. But will May abandon the swivel-eyed Brexit loons to get a deal done? Here's hoping.

Innocent_Abroad

SouthamObserver said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

I think May's approach to GPs will prove counter-productive in practice (ahem) and the public's eye, but there we are.

It just shows - yet again - that she is totally out of her depth.

She is, I agree. But which front-bencher, of any Party, would not be? The triple challenge of Brexit, Trump and Islam would tax anyone.

SquareRoot

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

It is AIUI thatI more Doctors are in training, but people with any sense will realise that what they used to get they no longer do, and will they blame the Govt?? I don't know, its an easy blame, who is responsible . Past Govts should not have allowed on call to lapse. My late wife was on call some evenings and weekends. for all of her practising life until she had to retire on ill health grounds. Indeed I went with her sometimes when the there was an aggressive patient (as there were sometimes).

DecrepitJohnL

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Alan Milburn, not Johnson who came later. It was Milburn's 2004 deal that raised payments and removed out-of-hours cover. However, as you say, there is a shortage of GPs so we should be sceptical of claims GPs are paid too much. And probably most of a GP's case load consists of patients with chronic conditions, retired people and pre-school children, none of who will be crying out for 24-hour access, so Number 10's cause might not be as popular as it thinks -- most patients are not SpAds working 23 hours a day away from home.

NickPalmer

SouthamObserver said:

Great Guardian lead story today. And encouraging. But will May abandon the swivel-eyed Brexit loons to get a deal done? Here's hoping.

Which story is that? The online lead is a Trump interview.

PlatoSaid

Morning.

Just catching up on posts - sex, traitors and Enoch... what a colourful start to my day.

Innocent_Abroad

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Alan Milburn, not Johnson who came later. It was Milburn's 2004 deal that raised payments and removed out-of-hours cover. However, as you say, there is a shortage of GPs so we should be sceptical of claims GPs are paid too much. And probably most of a GP's case load consists of patients with chronic conditions, retired people and pre-school children, none of who will be crying out for 24-hour access, .

I think the mothers of chronically sick children will want 24-7 GP access.

NickPalmer

foxinsoxuk said:

I would be happy to see Nuttall stand in Stoke. I expect he would be in 3rd or 4th place and the kipper Northern gambit in smithereens. Job done.

Yep. Bring it on.

eek

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Great Guardian lead story today. And encouraging. But will May abandon the swivel-eyed Brexit loons to get a deal done? Here's hoping.

Which story is that? The online lead is a Trump interview.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/eu-negotiator-wants-special-deal-over-access-to-city-post-brexit

SouthamObserver

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Great Guardian lead story today. And encouraging. But will May abandon the swivel-eyed Brexit loons to get a deal done? Here's hoping.

Which story is that? The online lead is a Trump interview.

It was the lead in the print edition:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/eu-negotiator-wants-special-deal-over-access-to-city-post-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw

isam

Roger said:

OT Tip for the week-end.

Man Utd are 16/1 for the league. If they win this weekend (likely) and Chelsea and Man City don't win (likely) the odds will very likely halve.

You call an odds against shot winning 'likely', and two odds on shots failing to win 'likely'?

May well all happen, but a complete nonsense description. 2nd worst gambling post of the week!

SquareRoot

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Alan Milburn, not Johnson who came later. It was Milburn's 2004 deal that raised payments and removed out-of-hours cover. However, as you say, there is a shortage of GPs so we should be sceptical of claims GPs are paid too much. And probably most of a GP's case load consists of patients with chronic conditions, retired people and pre-school children, none of who will be crying out for 24-hour access, so Number 10's cause might not be as popular as it thinks -- most patients are not SpAds working 23 hours a day away from home.

..until they get caught ot having to wait for hours for anyone to see them in A and E...

SouthamObserver

NickPalmer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I would be happy to see Nuttall stand in Stoke. I expect he would be in 3rd or 4th place and the kipper Northern gambit in smithereens. Job done.

Yep. Bring it on.

UKIP has to win in Stoke.

isam

"Ian Warren, a leading polling expert on Labour and Ukip, said he was carrying out focus groups among Labour voters in Stoke last month.

Labour - which has lost several council by-elections recenly - was hampered by losing its identity among core supporters, he said, adding that he was "struggling" to find traditional Labour voters in towns and cities who reliably backed the party."

http://bit.ly/2jaDlQS

DecrepitJohnL

Innocent_Abroad said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Alan Milburn, not Johnson who came later. It was Milburn's 2004 deal that raised payments and removed out-of-hours cover. However, as you say, there is a shortage of GPs so we should be sceptical of claims GPs are paid too much. And probably most of a GP's case load consists of patients with chronic conditions, retired people and pre-school children, none of who will be crying out for 24-hour access, .

I think the mothers of chronically sick children will want 24-7 GP access.

For routine tests at three o'clock in the morning? Sure, everyone wants 24-hour cover but not at the expense of daytime access, and I suspect the chronic, routine patients will far outnumber the rest. On the politics of this, are there any Conservative kremlinologists who can tell us what this says about relations between Number 10 and Jeremy Hunt?

rkrkrk

isam said:

Roger said:

OT Tip for the week-end.

Man Utd are 16/1 for the league. If they win this weekend (likely) and Chelsea and Man City don't win (likely) the odds will very likely halve.

You call an odds against shot winning 'likely', and two odds on shots failing to win 'likely'?

May well all happen, but a complete nonsense description. 2nd worst gambling post of the week!

Also worth noting:
Three unrelated probabilities combining to evens means they should be priced at 1.26 each.
Not even remotely true for any of those events.

SouthamObserver

If it's all the fault of lazy GPs it makes you wonder why the government is doing this:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/nhs-recruit-hundreds-gps-poland-lithuania-greece/amp/

Black_Rook

foxinsoxuk said:

tlg86 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be clear: these are two seats where the Lib Dems lost their deposits at the last election. If they get into double digits in vote share in both, that would be solid progress. A victory in either would be truly sensational. Both of these should be easy Labour holds. The fact that both are seen as interesting means either that we've all got too febrile or that politics has got too febrile. For the moment, I'm taking the view that it's basically us.

I forecast both as Labour holds with LDs on about 15-20%, kippers around 10% in each. Neither seat likes carpet baggers so it would be foolish for Nutall to stand. On the other hand serial Westminster electoral failure didnt harm Farage politically. Labour is the value bet in both.

I disagree. I think Nuttall should stand in Stoke. I don't know how these things work, but would it mean that the media couldn't talk to him without talking to the other candidates? Or does his position as Ukip leader negate that issue?

I would be happy to see Nuttall stand in Stoke. I expect he would be in 3rd or 4th place and the kipper Northern gambit in smithereens. Job done.

Nuttall would probably be wise to avoid Stoke. The stakes are too high, and neither Labour nor Tristram Hunt profited reputationally from the latter having been parachuted in.

Nuttall would be better off tackling one of the vacancies in the North West, his patch in the European Parliament of course, which should open up after the May mayoral elections. Ukip in Stoke should pick a local candidate. My understanding is that the candidate who came second in 2015 was local, so they might be best off fielding him again if he's still available.

Mortimer

PClipp said:

First. But in the present climate, I see no reason why the Lib Dems could not win both. New members are very much fired up and keen to get stuck in to the Tories and their little helpers in the Labour Party.

Hahaha. LD optimism reigns supreme.

SouthamObserver

Blimey:
https://twitter.com/matthewjdowd/status/819875991506092032

foxinsoxuk

DecrepitJohnL said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Alan Milburn, not Johnson who came later. It was Milburn's 2004 deal that raised payments and removed out-of-hours cover. However, as you say, there is a shortage of GPs so we should be sceptical of claims GPs are paid too much. And probably most of a GP's case load consists of patients with chronic conditions, retired people and pre-school children, none of who will be crying out for 24-hour access, .

I think the mothers of chronically sick children will want 24-7 GP access.

For routine tests at three o'clock in the morning? Sure, everyone wants 24-hour cover but not at the expense of daytime access, and I suspect the chronic, routine patients will far outnumber the rest. On the politics of this, are there any Conservative kremlinologists who can tell us what this says about relations between Number 10 and Jeremy Hunt?

What it shows is that May is a nasty piece of work with no understanding of the issues, and who blames others for her own failings.

The reason for the "Black alerts" at places like Leicester is that there are no beds for serious conditions that need inpatient management, in large part due to the collapse of social care. It is not A and E clogging up with minor comlaints. That would cause an overcrowded wait in minors rather than trolley waits and ambulances unable to unload.

DecrepitJohnL

SquareRoot said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Alan Milburn, not Johnson who came later. It was Milburn's 2004 deal that raised payments and removed out-of-hours cover. However, as you say, there is a shortage of GPs so we should be sceptical of claims GPs are paid too much. And probably most of a GP's case load consists of patients with chronic conditions, retired people and pre-school children, none of who will be crying out for 24-hour access, so Number 10's cause might not be as popular as it thinks -- most patients are not SpAds working 23 hours a day away from home.

..until they get caught ot having to wait for hours for anyone to see them in A and E...

Indeed, and in fact I was in that position just a few months ago but while I do believe there is a lot wrong with the way GP services are run -- and starting with the need for 2 or 3 day appointments -- we need to recognise that most patients are more than happy with daytime services, and worsening services for the majority will not be a vote-winner.

SouthamObserver

foxinsoxuk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Alan Milburn, not Johnson who came later. It was Milburn's 2004 deal that raised payments and removed out-of-hours cover. However, as you say, there is a shortage of GPs so we should be sceptical of claims GPs are paid too much. And probably most of a GP's case load consists of patients with chronic conditions, retired people and pre-school children, none of who will be crying out for 24-hour access, .

I think the mothers of chronically sick children will want 24-7 GP access.

For routine tests at three o'clock in the morning? Sure, everyone wants 24-hour cover but not at the expense of daytime access, and I suspect the chronic, routine patients will far outnumber the rest. On the politics of this, are there any Conservative kremlinologists who can tell us what this says about relations between Number 10 and Jeremy Hunt?

What it shows is that May is a nasty piece of work with no understanding of the issues, and who blames others for her own failings.

The reason for the "Black alerts" at places like Leicester is that there are no beds for serious conditions that need inpatient management, in large part due to the collapse of social care. It is not A and E clogging up with minor comlaints. That would cause an overcrowded wait in minors rather than trolley waits and ambulances unable to unload.

May is not nasty, she is totally out of her depth. She is flailing around looking for ways to get positive headlines in right wing newspapers. Another trait she shares with Gordon Brown :-)

Big_G_NorthWales

My sister was terminally ill in a Nursing Home when the Sister became alarmed at her condition. I was called (I had power of attorney and she had a DNR agreement). The Sister told me the surgery was closed and that they told her to call an ambulance and take her to A & E. The ambulance crew arrived and said they needed a doctor. No doctor was available anywhere and the paramedics said that they would have to take her into Hospital despite her expressed wish under the DNR and also that she wished to die in the Nursing Home. The paramedics and the Sister said that it was my choice to decide ( she was obviously dying) but in all fairness I had to take the professional advice and allow her to go to Hospital. On arrival the doctor confirmed she was dying and withdrew all medication. She died in A & E 5 hours later.

The point of this story is that the closure of her practice not only resulted in an unnecessary hospital admission but an action expressly against her last wishes.

The current crisis is a huge problem, but what annoys me about the MSM coverage, is that it is going on in Wales and Scotland and it is a UK wide problem but the target is always England.

Just heard Corbyn's USSR style take over of nursing homes. His answer to everything is take into state ownership. He is a dinosaur.

AlsoIndigo

SouthamObserver said:

If it's all the fault of lazy GPs it makes you wonder why the government is doing this:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/nhs-recruit-hundreds-gps-poland-lithuania-greece/amp/

Because UK doctors can make twice as much money for half the work in Australia, so they would be fools not to. Probably not such an easy option for Eastern European doctors.

PlatoSaid

“No one will be attending,” Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks said in a statement to Bloomberg.

A senior member of Trump’s transition team said the president-elect thought it would betray his populist-fueled movement to have a presence at the gathering in the Swiss Alps.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-13/trump-team-shunning-davos-gathering-of-world-s-economic-elite

Gardenwalker

PlatoSaid said:

Morning.

Just catching up on posts - sex, traitors and Enoch... what a colourful start to my day.

Sex, Traitors and Enoch is a normal start for any red blooded PBer.

SouthamObserver

AlsoIndigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

If it's all the fault of lazy GPs it makes you wonder why the government is doing this:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/nhs-recruit-hundreds-gps-poland-lithuania-greece/amp/

Because UK doctors can make twice as much money for half the work in Australia, so they would be fools not to. Probably not such an easy option for Eastern European doctors.

Or we don't have enough doctors in the first place.

Mortimer

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Alan Milburn, not Johnson who came later. It was Milburn's 2004 deal that raised payments and removed out-of-hours cover. However, as you say, there is a shortage of GPs so we should be sceptical of claims GPs are paid too much. And probably most of a GP's case load consists of patients with chronic conditions, retired people and pre-school children, none of who will be crying out for 24-hour access, so Number 10's cause might not be as popular as it thinks -- most patients are not SpAds working 23 hours a day away from home.

Politics is often about correcting perceived unfairness.

It is not considered fair to those who are working their nuts off to pay for public services that said public services only adequately support those who do not/are not able too/are pensioners.

It is also not rocket science. There used to be better out of hours provision. 'Taking control' and 'getting back to the old days' will be very attractive. Especially with the working JAM families.

Innocent_Abroad

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My sister was terminally ill in a Nursing Home when the Sister became alarmed at her condition.

Just heard Corbyn's USSR style take over of nursing homes. His answer to everything is take into state ownership. He is a dinosaur.

Didn't the Tories take over a bankrupt railway?. Sometimes the State is the answer.

JWisemann

'Just heard Corbyn's USSR style take over of nursing homes. '

Haha. Beyond parody.

Big_G_NorthWales

Innocent_Abroad said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My sister was terminally ill in a Nursing Home when the Sister became alarmed at her condition.

Just heard Corbyn's USSR style take over of nursing homes. His answer to everything is take into state ownership. He is a dinosaur.

Didn't the Tories take over a bankrupt railway?. Sometimes the State is the answer.

In our area there are many nursing home closures. They are then put on the market in some cases for millions and so Corbyn would hand millions to the private sector but still be left with the loses

AlsoIndigo

SouthamObserver said:

AlsoIndigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

If it's all the fault of lazy GPs it makes you wonder why the government is doing this:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/nhs-recruit-hundreds-gps-poland-lithuania-greece/amp/

Because UK doctors can make twice as much money for half the work in Australia, so they would be fools not to. Probably not such an easy option for Eastern European doctors.

Or we don't have enough doctors in the first place.

If a large chunk of medical graduates disappear down under we won't will we ?

SouthamObserver

AlsoIndigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

AlsoIndigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

If it's all the fault of lazy GPs it makes you wonder why the government is doing this:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/nhs-recruit-hundreds-gps-poland-lithuania-greece/amp/

Because UK doctors can make twice as much money for half the work in Australia, so they would be fools not to. Probably not such an easy option for Eastern European doctors.

Or we don't have enough doctors in the first place.

If a large chunk of medical graduates disappear down under we won't will we ?

How many do each year?

But if it is the case all this is being caused by thousands of British doctors emigrating for a lifestyle of less work and higher pay, it can hardly be the case that we have a crisis because GPs don't work hard enough and are paid too much.

Black_Rook

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Alan Milburn, not Johnson who came later. It was Milburn's 2004 deal that raised payments and removed out-of-hours cover. However, as you say, there is a shortage of GPs so we should be sceptical of claims GPs are paid too much. And probably most of a GP's case load consists of patients with chronic conditions, retired people and pre-school children, none of who will be crying out for 24-hour access, .

I think the mothers of chronically sick children will want 24-7 GP access.

For routine tests at three o'clock in the morning? Sure, everyone wants 24-hour cover but not at the expense of daytime access, and I suspect the chronic, routine patients will far outnumber the rest. On the politics of this, are there any Conservative kremlinologists who can tell us what this says about relations between Number 10 and Jeremy Hunt?

What it shows is that May is a nasty piece of work with no understanding of the issues, and who blames others for her own failings.

The reason for the "Black alerts" at places like Leicester is that there are no beds for serious conditions that need inpatient management, in large part due to the collapse of social care. It is not A and E clogging up with minor comlaints. That would cause an overcrowded wait in minors rather than trolley waits and ambulances unable to unload.

May is not nasty, she is totally out of her depth. She is flailing around looking for ways to get positive headlines in right wing newspapers. Another trait she shares with Gordon Brown :-)

You may come to rue mocking Mrs May if she ultiimately crushes Labour at the ballot box, which looks very likely. Brown couldn't even get to 30%; the Tories have never polled that badly in their entire history.

Brown was ultimately incapable of winning a general election; May will probably do so with room to spare. Indeed, I think it's probable that Tony Blair will go down in history as the very last Labour leader ever to have won a general election.

Now, who'd have thought that in 1997?

Mortimer

Presumably under the Corbynite mindset, where failed institutions are taken into state ownership, the Labour party would be a candidate??

Surely replacing leaders would be the natural first step.

The evident vanity and stubbornness of this man in the face of national interest is, quite frankly, ugly.

Verulamius

In my view the current issues with the NHS derive from problems with the social care system. Whilst the NHS has had lots of additional spending, I don't think that the social care system has due to local government cuts.

I thought that one of the new arrangements set up under the coalition government was local health and wellbeing boards. Are these entities supposed to improve the cooperation between the NHS and the social care system?

SquareRoot

Some of the people posting on here have probably never had to user the NHS. I had to as a sort of emergency and they were fabulous esp my GP. Just as well it happened at 8am on a Monday morning or it would have been an ambulance to A and E...

AlsoIndigo

SouthamObserver said:

AlsoIndigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

AlsoIndigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

If it's all the fault of lazy GPs it makes you wonder why the government is doing this:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/nhs-recruit-hundreds-gps-poland-lithuania-greece/amp/

Because UK doctors can make twice as much money for half the work in Australia, so they would be fools not to. Probably not such an easy option for Eastern European doctors.

Or we don't have enough doctors in the first place.

If a large chunk of medical graduates disappear down under we won't will we ?

How many do each year?

But if it is the case all this is being caused by thousands of British doctors emigrating for a lifestyle of less work and higher pay, it can hardly be the case that we have a crisis because GPs don't work hard enough and are paid too much.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/nov/08/nhs-doctors-in-australia-more-cash-fewer-hours-less-pressure

Indeed, but suggesting a 50% pay rise and 50% workload cut is politically unrealistic.

The only sensible option is a training bond. The government lends you the value of your training over say ten years, if you work 10 years in the NHS it wipes the bond clean, if you leave beforehand you are due for the outstanding balance. Its exactly what commerical operations with internationally tradable skills (notably airline pilots) do.

Big_G_NorthWales

AlsoIndigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

AlsoIndigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

If it's all the fault of lazy GPs it makes you wonder why the government is doing this:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/nhs-recruit-hundreds-gps-poland-lithuania-greece/amp/

Because UK doctors can make twice as much money for half the work in Australia, so they would be fools not to. Probably not such an easy option for Eastern European doctors.

Or we don't have enough doctors in the first place.

If a large chunk of medical graduates disappear down under we won't will we ?

There are not that many vacancies and they do not have the career path.

Also emigrating to Australia or New Zealand for many is a very emotional step as they leave their family and friends.

I know from personal experience , my eldest went to New Zealand 14 years ago

DecrepitJohnL

Mortimer said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Alan Milburn, not Johnson who came later. It was Milburn's 2004 deal that raised payments and removed out-of-hours cover. However, as you say, there is a shortage of GPs so we should be sceptical of claims GPs are paid too much. And probably most of a GP's case load consists of patients with chronic conditions, retired people and pre-school children, none of who will be crying out for 24-hour access, so Number 10's cause might not be as popular as it thinks -- most patients are not SpAds working 23 hours a day away from home.

Politics is often about correcting perceived unfairness.

It is not considered fair to those who are working their nuts off to pay for public services that said public services only adequately support those who do not/are not able too/are pensioners.

It is also not rocket science. There used to be better out of hours provision. 'Taking control' and 'getting back to the old days' will be very attractive. Especially with the working JAM families.

Agreed but surely that line works better in opposition? Labour or the LibDems can offer 24-hour access with no downside but the government will be expected actually to do something and merely redistributing resources from times of high demand to low demand will create more losers than winners.

AlsoIndigo

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlsoIndigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

AlsoIndigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

If it's all the fault of lazy GPs it makes you wonder why the government is doing this:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/nhs-recruit-hundreds-gps-poland-lithuania-greece/amp/

Because UK doctors can make twice as much money for half the work in Australia, so they would be fools not to. Probably not such an easy option for Eastern European doctors.

Or we don't have enough doctors in the first place.

If a large chunk of medical graduates disappear down under we won't will we ?

There are not that many vacancies and they do not have the career path.

Also emigrating to Australia or New Zealand for many is a very emotional step as they leave their family and friends.

I know from personal experience , my eldest went to New Zealand 14 years ago

And yet there are 3000+ applicants per year for credentials to work overseas.

SouthamObserver

The basic NHS problem is that we have more old people than ever before. Social care, including care homes, has to be an integrated part of the solution. We also need politicians grown-up enough to put down tribal differences and to work on a long-term strategy for the NHS that might involve some unpalatable truths for all - higher taxes, some point of use charges, for example. It will, of course, never happen.

Innocent_Abroad

Mortimer said:

Presumably under the Corbynite mindset, where failed institutions are taken into state ownership, the Labour party would be a candidate??

Surely replacing leaders would be the natural first step.

The evident vanity and stubbornness of this man in the face of national interest is, quite frankly, ugly.

Do you think JC should be (a) arrested, (b) jailed or (c) shot out of hand?

And would you like absolute power and eternal life, too?

david_herdson

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be clear: these are two seats where the Lib Dems lost their deposits at the last election. If they get into double digits in vote share in both, that would be solid progress. A victory in either would be truly sensational. Both of these should be easy Labour holds. The fact that both are seen as interesting means either that we've all got too febrile or that politics has got too febrile. For the moment, I'm taking the view that it's basically us.

Yes. Realistically Stoke should be a Labour hold, with an almighty scrap for second behind them, especially if a local Indy gets involved as well.
Copeland is the more likely upset, but the betting value is still with the red team at 2.7, the Tories shouldn't be odds-on.

I agree with that. It's a measure of the unreality of current politics that the Conservatives are odds-on favourites to gain a seat in government, something which hasn't been done by anyone, including Blair in his pomp, for almost 35 years. Furthermore, to gain a seat which has been represented by Labour since 1935 and where the majority, while not large, is nonetheless a good deal bigger than any of the three previous post-war government gains (excluding Bristol SE, which was in terms of votes, a Labour hold).

Mortimer

Innocent_Abroad said:

Mortimer said:

Presumably under the Corbynite mindset, where failed institutions are taken into state ownership, the Labour party would be a candidate??

Surely replacing leaders would be the natural first step.

The evident vanity and stubbornness of this man in the face of national interest is, quite frankly, ugly.

Do you think JC should be (a) arrested, (b) jailed or (c) shot out of hand?

And would you like absolute power and eternal life, too?

No, his party should find some gumption. He could cease to be leader of the opposition by lunchtime if enough of Labour split and founded a different party.

AlsoIndigo

Innocent_Abroad said:

Mortimer said:

Presumably under the Corbynite mindset, where failed institutions are taken into state ownership, the Labour party would be a candidate??

Surely replacing leaders would be the natural first step.

The evident vanity and stubbornness of this man in the face of national interest is, quite frankly, ugly.

Do you think JC should be (a) arrested, (b) jailed or (c) shot out of hand?

And would you like absolute power and eternal life, too?

This line is not only sad, its getting boring as well, maybe you should find another tune that does have the echo of flapping white coats ?

Innocent_Abroad

Mortimer said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Mortimer said:

Presumably under the Corbynite mindset, where failed institutions are taken into state ownership, the Labour party would be a candidate??

Surely replacing leaders would be the natural first step.

The evident vanity and stubbornness of this man in the face of national interest is, quite frankly, ugly.

Do you think JC should be (a) arrested, (b) jailed or (c) shot out of hand?

And would you like absolute power and eternal life, too?

No, his party should find some gumption. He could cease to be leader of the opposition by lunchtime if enough of Labour split and founded a different party.

And who are you to tell Labour - or any other Party you're not a member of - what or what not to do?

Mortimer

DecrepitJohnL said:

Mortimer said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Alan Milburn, not Johnson who came later. It was Milburn's 2004 deal that raised payments and removed out-of-hours cover. However, as you say, there is a shortage of GPs so we should be sceptical of claims GPs are paid too much. And probably most of a GP's case load consists of patients with chronic conditions, retired people and pre-school children, none of who will be crying out for 24-hour access, so Number 10's cause might not be as popular as it thinks -- most patients are not SpAds working 23 hours a day away from home.

Politics is often about correcting perceived unfairness.

It is not considered fair to those who are working their nuts off to pay for public services that said public services only adequately support those who do not/are not able too/are pensioners.

It is also not rocket science. There used to be better out of hours provision. 'Taking control' and 'getting back to the old days' will be very attractive. Especially with the working JAM families.

Agreed but surely that line works better in opposition? Labour or the LibDems can offer 24-hour access with no downside but the government will be expected actually to do something and merely redistributing resources from times of high demand to low demand will create more losers than winners.

Because GP provision was really bad pre 1997, was it?

Used to be far better down here....

AlsoIndigo

Innocent_Abroad said:

Mortimer said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Mortimer said:

Presumably under the Corbynite mindset, where failed institutions are taken into state ownership, the Labour party would be a candidate??

Surely replacing leaders would be the natural first step.

The evident vanity and stubbornness of this man in the face of national interest is, quite frankly, ugly.

Do you think JC should be (a) arrested, (b) jailed or (c) shot out of hand?

And would you like absolute power and eternal life, too?

No, his party should find some gumption. He could cease to be leader of the opposition by lunchtime if enough of Labour split and founded a different party.

And who are you to tell Labour - or any other Party you're not a member of - what or what not to do?

I seem to recall you giving suggestions as to what Tories should do quite often

SouthamObserver

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Alan Milburn, not Johnson who came later. It was Milburn's 2004 deal that raised payments and removed out-of-hours cover. However, as you say, there is a shortage of GPs so we should be sceptical of claims GPs are paid too much. And probably most of a GP's case load consists of patients with chronic conditions, retired people and pre-school children, none of who will be crying out for 24-hour access, .

I think the mothers of chronically sick children will want 24-7 GP access.

For routine tests at three o'clock in the mor10 and Jeremy Hunt?

What it shows is that May is a nasty piece of work with no understanding of the issues, and who blames others for her own failings.

The reason for the "Black alerts" at places like Leicester is that there are no beds for serious conditions that need inpatient management, in large part due to the collapse of social care. It is not A and E clogging up with minor comlaints. That would cause an overcrowded wait in minors rather than trolley waits and ambulances unable to unload.

May is not nasty, she is totally out of her depth. She is flailing around looking for ways to get positive headlines in right wing newspapers. Another trait she shares with Gordon Brown :-)

You may come to rue mocking Mrs May if she ultiimately crushes Labour at the ballot box, which looks very likely. Brown couldn't even get to 30%; the Tories have never polled that badly in their entire history.

Brown was ultimately incapable of winning a general election; May will probably do so with room to spare. Indeed, I think it's probable that Tony Blair will go down in history as the very last Labour leader ever to have won a general election.

Now, who'd have thought that in 1997?

Of course May will crush Corbyn. In a battle between a patriotic mediocrity and a fool who winces in the presence of the Union Jack the mediocrity will win every single time.

Your other pronouncement is somewhat bolder. The centre left will win again. Perhaps not under the Labour name. But who cares about that?

Mortimer

Innocent_Abroad said:

Mortimer said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Mortimer said:

Presumably under the Corbynite mindset, where failed institutions are taken into state ownership, the Labour party would be a candidate??

Surely replacing leaders would be the natural first step.

The evident vanity and stubbornness of this man in the face of national interest is, quite frankly, ugly.

Do you think JC should be (a) arrested, (b) jailed or (c) shot out of hand?

And would you like absolute power and eternal life, too?

No, his party should find some gumption. He could cease to be leader of the opposition by lunchtime if enough of Labour split and founded a different party.

And who are you to tell Labour - or any other Party you're not a member of - what or what not to do?

A concerned citizen. Parly government works better with proper opposition.

Like one who realise that having a speech on a weekend will largely escape popular consciousness.

david_herdson

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, yet GP numbers are low and declining. I agree Alan Johnson's negotiation was more capitulation, but despite that there's a need for more GPs. Also, in small practices of one or two doctors, expecting a seven day service is not reasonable.

Lastly, public sentiment is naturally inclined towards doctors.

Mr. Observer, on some things. But she was spot on, and still is, on rights for British citizens in the EU needing to be considered alongside EU citizens in the UK.

Small practices can band together to provide that sort of service. It's not good enough to simply shut up shop at 5 (or 1.30 or whenever) on a Friday and leave care to the local hospitals. Primary care should be seen as an integral part of the NHS and treated as such.

weejonnie

SouthamObserver said:

The basic NHS problem is that we have more old people than ever before. Social care, including care homes, has to be an integrated part of the solution. We also need politicians grown-up enough to put down tribal differences and to work on a long-term strategy for the NHS that might involve some unpalatable truths for all - higher taxes, some point of use charges, for example. It will, of course, never happen.

Or we can change Government policy and encourage smoking and drinking. Think of the increased revenue to handle those fewer people who reach 80+.

rkrkrk

SouthamObserver said:

The basic NHS problem is that we have more old people than ever before. Social care, including care homes, has to be an integrated part of the solution. We also need politicians grown-up enough to put down tribal differences and to work on a long-term strategy for the NHS that might involve some unpalatable truths for all - higher taxes, some point of use charges, for example. It will, of course, never happen.

Why point of use charges? The evidence is pretty clear that they are a dreadful idea...

We don't spend much on health compared to other wealthy countries and so actually get a great deal from the NHS. If we want a world class health service we should be prepared to pay for it.

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/blog/2016/01/how-does-nhs-spending-compare-health-spending-internationally