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Graphic: The most recent YouGov polling on who would make the best PM
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Quite amusing the idea of labour taking solace in IDS approval ratings. It really is quite simple, corbyn repels about 70% of voters and labour are finished with him as leader.
Just watched a piece on BBC about Trump. Don't know if the Beeb could have found a more partisan 'expert'. He could have been the spokesman for HRC!
Lab HOLD Bolsover ....
I've not followed the detail, but if Lewis really said that he doesn't regard Trump as the "legitimate President" that's an outrageous and inflammatory thing for a leading politician to say.
Trump's criticism is that "he should spend more time fixing his crime ridden district" - standard political knockabout, not some kind of savage attack
Lewis is different.
As ever, Mr Meeks' glass is half empty. But I guess we should be grateful its only half.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-hammond-idUSKBN14Z065
Unfortunately so, but people need to learn how to lose. That comes with practice. The young's usual reaction is righteous indignation. I'm right, why can't the others see that?
Ah, bless.
https://www.welt.de/english-news/article161182946/Philip-Hammond-issues-threat-to-EU-partners.html
A not too veiled threat:
Hammond I personally hope we will be able to remain in the mainstream of European economic and social thinking. But if we are forced to be something different, then we will have to become something different.
Welt am Sonntag: We don’t understand: Who or what would force you?
Hammond: Economic circumstances. If we have no access to the European market, if we are closed off, if Britain were to leave the European Union without an agreement on market access, then we could suffer from economic damage at least in the short-term. In this case, we could be forced to change our economic model and we will have to change our model to regain competitiveness.
Edit - but nothing Hammond says is inconsistent with what May has said in the past....
Miss Vance, thanks for highlighting those interesting comments. I wonder if May and Hammond are trying for a good cop, bad cop approach.
On-topic: I'd argue the thread above is essentially correct. May's very lucky to have Corbyn as an opponent. If Cameron hadn't buggered himself twice by pre-announcing his departure then running the worst campaign since Pharnaces II had a fight with Caesar he could be cruising towards the largest victory since the Second World War.
May's not as talented, certainly at PR, but against a Hamas-befriending, nuke-hating, Russia-loving, economically innumerate socialist she should be gaining seats rather than losing them.
On that note, am I right in thinking that since 1997 Labour has only lost seats and the Conservatives only gained them (at General Elections)? If so, and it continues in 2020, that's a pretty long term trend.
May - Hard Brexit is our default position. We would be happy with that.
Hammond - Hard Brexit would be really, really bad. How far are you willing to go to avoid it?
EDIT: MD describes it as good cop, bad cop. Which only works if they say different things...
It reads as if there is no single market access that he is saying Britain's European style welfare state is under threat.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/dont-write-jeremy-corbyn-20-his-relaunch-has-potential-win
There are out there some people who are so blinded by tribal loyalty and a refusal to admit error that even the last week won't turn them off the total and abject failure that is his leadership.
Labour will hold both seats. They will survive Corbyn in some way, because it will take 10 years of disasters like this to kill them (as we saw in Scotland). The question is how long it takes them to recover and what form this will take.
And the other question is, what deal did May make with a certain figure that she has so much luck in her opponents - Boris, Leadsom and now Corbyn and later Juncker?
I am less convinced about the benefits of leaving the EU for the Celtic fringe. The whole of Ireland would probably be better economically as a united 32-county republic within the EU; a hard border across Ulster (isolating 6 of its 9 counties) is likely to cause major problems. Wales is likely to suffer marked loss of funding post withdrawal from the EU. Scotland won't stay indefinitely within the UK given the level of support for the nationalists there - it will be gone if another 5% of its population change their view to favour independence .
Robertson is leader (in Westminster) of a party committed to the destruction of the UK as a political entity. A country being governed by a party that believes it shouldn't exist is farcical.
Farron would only work if the numbers fit. Not sure I can see that, even with some nice strategic changes to the landscape for the Lib Dems.
Lets wait to see, shall we?
When setting out for revenge, first dig two graves....
Agreeing what we ask for is hardly "punishment".
The speech is unlikely to suggest what May’s response will be if our interlocutors reject her demands outright – or, more likely, seek to drag the talks out to put pressure on her. She does not have to say so directly this week. But she will need to at some point before Article 50 is moved. She will need to make it clear that a good deal – that’s say, a deal which meets her requirements – is better than the Most Favoured Nation status alternative, but that no deal, and MFN, is a lot better than a bad deal.
The biggest strategic weakness of David Cameron’s renegotiation is that he was never prepared to walk – that’s to say, that he would be prepared to lead Britain out of the EU were his demands not met. His head ended up on a spike. His successor will want to avoid the same fate.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/01/no-no-no-mays-maggies-moment-no-ecj-no-single-market-no-customs-union-what-her-speech-this-week-will-say.html
But the rest of the European Union also faces risks.
And, according to the governor, those risks are greater for the continent.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38582690
However, that only takes it from 5.60 to 5.02. I would say it would need to hit around 3 before it is not worth coming to Britain for a minimum wage job.
Remember, as a Year 9 astutely noted on a trip to Kraków, everything in the shops in Poland is the same price as it is in Birmingham - but in zlotys at 5 to the pound, suddenly that UK minimum wage looks much better.
1. This outcome was always inevitable, as I noted on another channel:
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-hard-brexit-only-option-theresa-may
2. Who's talking about the NHS now? Dead cats and all that.
I don't think carney's statement is as strong a card as you think it is. As long as the ECB is awake to the risk they will be fine.
Yep.
1. Leadership scores are relative. May is miles ahead because Corbyn is made of cyanide. It will stay this may - right through to a GE result - until Corbyn goes. But then the relative scores might move. (Unless his replacement is another hard lefty).
2. Part of May's score is driven by her lack, thus far, of Brexit clarity. Seems we are going to get a bunch of that this week.
He continues to impress, or perhaps is flattered by comparison with his cabinet colleagues.
If we do indeed have a hard Brexit, with the economic dislocation Hammond implies, what is going to give? The country did not vote Brexit in order to dismantle the social welfare system, but logic says it must follow.
Can the Brexiteers sustain the myth that we voted for "trade war" ?
See also, Trump's emerging economic policy.
Difficult to know who is more contemptible: Corbyn or Trump?
By this logic the whole world is already in a "trade war".
If we are denied a fair deal ministers (Hammond/Fox?) have said that Britain would drastically cut its taxes in order to compete.
I do agree with Corbyn on one thing; the media, (and people interested in politics!) get ahead of events. The tone, overall content and clarifying remarks in May's speech are, as yet, unknown.
It's been pointed out umpteen times that the UK doesn't get to decide whether it stays in the Single Market. It's not our decision. Staying in the customs union would be bizarre. That said, there doesn't have to be one customs union- Turkey and the EU have a customs union. Qualifying that remark, it only exists as part of the polite fiction that Turkey will eventually join as a full member.
Anyway, I agree with you - just spelling out the implication of Hammond's very fair appraisal of where we are.
Possibly a good thing, and for Tories not an issue, but it may well be for the Red, Purple and Tartan CDE's.
And then let's see the general election outcome in 2020. Methinks a healthy Tory majority.
May's Brexit vision is truly dystopic for the UK. A dislocated part of Europe, desperately trying to curry favour with the tyrants of the world, cap in hand, and getting poorer.......
(Do you mean in terms of a wake up call for a complacent electorate)?
Want the best health service in the world? Then get another 100,000 oligarchs to live here - and tax them. Get the Fortune 500 companies lured here by world beating corporation tax rates. Set up enterprise zones for world-beating new technologies, with slashed tax rates for the first 10 years.
Do all the stuff where we'll no longer need to go to Brussels to ask for permission.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/12/optimists-guide-brexit