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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hung parliament maintains its favourite status in the gener

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited July 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hung parliament maintains its favourite status in the general election overall outcome betting

Latest Betfair GE2015 overall majority betting based on last trades
pic.twitter.com/qECivvD4iU

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  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,468
    About time too.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited July 2013
    Will it ever lose its favourite status?
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Hung parliament maintains its JOINT favourite status in the general election overall outcome betting

    Best prices - Next UK GE overall majority

    LAB majority 13/8 (Betfair)
    Hung parliament 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
    CON majority 4/1 (Paddy Power)
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Betfair is where punters determine prices not bookies and is a truer guide to betting sentiment
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hung parliament maintains its JOINT favourite status in the general election overall outcome betting

    Best prices - Next UK GE overall majority

    LAB majority 13/8 (Betfair)
    Hung parliament 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
    CON majority 4/1 (Paddy Power)

  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MikeSmithson said:

    Betfair is where punters determine prices not bookies and is a truer guide to betting sentiment

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hung parliament maintains its JOINT favourite status in the general election overall outcome betting

    Best prices - Next UK GE overall majority

    LAB majority 13/8 (Betfair)
    Hung parliament 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
    CON majority 4/1 (Paddy Power)

    Betfair is often like a scene out of a Roadrunner episode, with tumbleweed spinning past in the background.

    Meanwhile, the real cash is being placed with normal bookies.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Stuart D (previous thread) Well surely a poll of polls is more accurate than a single poll
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    RodCrosby said:

    Will it ever lose its favourite status?

    Maybe if the Labour lead got to 12% in most polls Labour majority might become favourite, just. Or if Labour's lead is still 7% or so on Dec 31st 2014. Fair point though, it's going to be favourite for a while in all likelihood.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    HYUFD said:

    Stuart D (previous thread) Well surely a poll of polls is more accurate than a single poll

    Where to start?

    According to the purists (and PB tends to be at the purist end of the spectrum), polls of polls are crap.

    Personally, I am not a purist. In fact, I even take an occasional peek at (shock, horror) cross-breaks. But best not to mention that in polite company.
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Mike, there is a reason that Shadsy is offering such a (superficially) good price on NOM: he loves mug punters. They pay his wages.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    Stuart D (previous thread) Well surely a poll of polls is more accurate than a single poll

    It is not even a poll of polls , it is a poll of Scottish sub samples of polls

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    SD - Well, if you are basing poll ratings on an average of polls then clearly you have more evidence than a single poll so it would be more accurate?
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stuart D (previous thread) Well surely a poll of polls is more accurate than a single poll

    It is not even a poll of polls , it is a poll of Scottish sub samples of polls

    Please don't swear in polite company Mark.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,468
    I'd expect no majority to hit 50% some time in the next few months or so. It'll be difficult to shift.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Ladbrokes over/under seat markets have midpoints of

    Lab 312.5 seats
    Con 270.5 seats
    LD 37.5 seats
    SNP 6.5 seats
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Mark Senior Plaid did put up 34 candidates in both elections in Ceredigion. In 2012 the LDs put up 28 candidates, in 2008 26
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited July 2013
    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well, if you are basing poll ratings on an average of polls then clearly you have more evidence than a single poll so it would be more accurate?

    Yikes! You are deep, deep into heresy territory now. I strongly advise you to repent before they start marching you to the stake and igniting the kindling below.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    Mark Senior Plaid did put up 34 candidates in both elections in Ceredigion. In 2012 the LDs put up 28 candidates, in 2008 26

    A few of the wards are multi member , the no of candidates is not important , it is the number of wards fought that will effect the voting shares .

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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Quincel said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Will it ever lose its favourite status?

    Maybe if the Labour lead got to 12% in most polls Labour majority might become favourite, just. Or if Labour's lead is still 7% or so on Dec 31st 2014. Fair point though, it's going to be favourite for a while in all likelihood.
    Or the Tories taking a big lead, of course. But given boundaries they'd need a big swing in the polls, so we'll have to wait a year or so for that to happen at least, if it ever does in this parliament.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited July 2013
    MarkSenior said:

    Ladbrokes over/under seat markets have midpoints of

    Lab 312.5 seats
    Con 270.5 seats
    LD 37.5 seats
    SNP 6.5 seats

    LD 37.5

    Almost exactly what I derived on the previous thread. I think they'll go above 40.

    Rather poor forecast for the SNP.

    The Tory seats will start creeping up soon...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Bell out!
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited July 2013
    Twitter
    John O'Shea ‏@politicalhackuk 5h
    If you aren't following the @tom_watson and @markatextor twitter "discussion" you are missing out
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!

    ;)

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!

    The 6 Scottish subsamples concerned had a total sample size of 582 . The Lib Dem % in the sub samples varied from 3% to 16%
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!

    The 6 Scottish subsamples concerned had a total sample size of 582 . The Lib Dem % in the sub samples varied from 3% to 16%
    How far apart were the samples ? They can be totalled by weight of sample size to reduce the MoE. All things being equal, I would imagine from that the LD figure in Scotland is ~ 8 - 10%.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    Ladbrokes over/under seat markets have midpoints of

    Lab 312.5 seats
    Con 270.5 seats
    LD 37.5 seats
    SNP 6.5 seats

    Lab EVS
    Con EVS
    LD EVS
    SNP over: FAV

    That was a rather important detail that you missed there Mark.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited July 2013
    Mark Senior - Depends if they calculate based on total overall result, or highest vote in a multi-member ward. In any case in 2012 the LDs put up a candidate in Cardigan Mwaldan as well as Cardigan Teifi and Llangeitho and Llansantffraid which they did not do in 2008. Although they did not put up a candidate in Aberystwyth Bronglais, Llandyfriog and Trefeurig unlike 2008, overall they contested one more ward net and put up 2 candidates in Aberystwyth Penpercau in 2012 compared to one in 2008
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!

    The 6 Scottish subsamples concerned had a total sample size of 582 . The Lib Dem % in the sub samples varied from 3% to 16%
    In other words, not a single SLD sub sample came even close to the 18.88% they got at UK GE 2010.

    How do you rate the SLD chances in Edinburgh West Mark?
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    surbiton said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!

    The 6 Scottish subsamples concerned had a total sample size of 582 . The Lib Dem % in the sub samples varied from 3% to 16%
    How far apart were the samples ? They can be totalled by weight of sample size to reduce the MoE. All things being equal, I would imagine from that the LD figure in Scotland is ~ 8 - 10%.
    Yes BUT the individual sub samples in polls are NOT weighted

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Christopher Snowdon @cjsnowdon
    "I will not have people protecting me from myself. That's the whole problem with this country." Mel Smith (1952-2013)
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!

    The 6 Scottish subsamples concerned had a total sample size of 582 . The Lib Dem % in the sub samples varied from 3% to 16%
    In other words, not a single SLD sub sample came even close to the 18.88% they got at UK GE 2010.

    How do you rate the SLD chances in Edinburgh West Mark?
    There has been the odd Yougov Scottish sub sample with the LD over 20% this year

  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    surbiton said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!

    The 6 Scottish subsamples concerned had a total sample size of 582 . The Lib Dem % in the sub samples varied from 3% to 16%
    How far apart were the samples ? They can be totalled by weight of sample size to reduce the MoE. All things being equal, I would imagine from that the LD figure in Scotland is ~ 8 - 10%.
    Yes BUT the individual sub samples in polls are NOT weighted

    Surbiton imagines that the LD figure in Scotland is ~ 8 - 10%. I would not dissent from that (very commonly held) view. What would you assess the level of SLD support to be Mark? And upon what basis?
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!

    The 6 Scottish subsamples concerned had a total sample size of 582 . The Lib Dem % in the sub samples varied from 3% to 16%
    In other words, not a single SLD sub sample came even close to the 18.88% they got at UK GE 2010.

    How do you rate the SLD chances in Edinburgh West Mark?
    There has been the odd Yougov Scottish sub sample with the LD over 20% this year

    Odd as in weird, or odd as in criminally insane?

  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321
    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well, if you are basing poll ratings on an average of polls then clearly you have more evidence than a single poll so it would be more accurate?

    Yes, if they are taken in the same way on the same day, but because they almost certainly aren't, it's like taking a sample of apples and a sample of oranges and hoping the result tells you more about apples or oranges. The MOE is almost certainly larger.

    Generally speaking, people tend to overrate large samples (a sample of 500 apples will tell you quite a lot about apples, a sample of 1000 not that much more) - it's more important to have consistent samples.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!

    The 6 Scottish subsamples concerned had a total sample size of 582 . The Lib Dem % in the sub samples varied from 3% to 16%
    In other words, not a single SLD sub sample came even close to the 18.88% they got at UK GE 2010.

    How do you rate the SLD chances in Edinburgh West Mark?
    There has been the odd Yougov Scottish sub sample with the LD over 20% this year

    Odd as in weird, or odd as in criminally insane?

    Odd as in they would make you choke on your morning porridge !!!

  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!

    The 6 Scottish subsamples concerned had a total sample size of 582 . The Lib Dem % in the sub samples varied from 3% to 16%
    In other words, not a single SLD sub sample came even close to the 18.88% they got at UK GE 2010.

    How do you rate the SLD chances in Edinburgh West Mark?
    There has been the odd Yougov Scottish sub sample with the LD over 20% this year

    Odd as in weird, or odd as in criminally insane?

    Odd as in they would make you choke on your morning porridge !!!

    ;)

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited July 2013
    NP - Well, will have to trust your higher mathematical knowledge, but nonetheless if you look at a group of polls you are less likely to be at risk of a rogue poll and the average figure given for a party will probably be about where it is at
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,802
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!

    The 6 Scottish subsamples concerned had a total sample size of 582 . The Lib Dem % in the sub samples varied from 3% to 16%
    In other words, not a single SLD sub sample came even close to the 18.88% they got at UK GE 2010.

    How do you rate the SLD chances in Edinburgh West Mark?
    On the Aberdeen Donside by-election swing, the LDs would have regained Edinburgh Western at Holyrood.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited July 2013
    The Edinburgh West MP is a newbie. The LD vote crashed 13.6% in 2010, in one of the LDs worst results. Probably mostly due to retirement of the previous incumbent. Labour also did extraordinarily well (the Brown effect).

    So, after building up his own vote, and the Scots due to blow Miliband a raspberry in 2015, Crockart may be safer than he looks...
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I've added the next PM betting to the header
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    In the past Lib Dems have chalked up the biggest first time incumbency bonus of any group
    RodCrosby said:

    The Edinburgh West MP is a newbie. The LD vote crashed 13.6% in 2010, in one of the LDs worst results. Probably mostly due to retirement of the previous incumbent. Labour also did extraordinarily well (the Brown effect).

    So, after building up his own vote, and the Scots due to blow Miliband a raspberry in 2015, Crockart may be safer than he looks...

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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Indeed. People grossly overstate the importance of sample sizes as we saw with YouGov 6k sample final poll at GE2010. The firm ended in bottom half of the polling league table.
    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well, if you are basing poll ratings on an average of polls then clearly you have more evidence than a single poll so it would be more accurate?

    Yes, if they are taken in the same way on the same day, but because they almost certainly aren't, it's like taking a sample of apples and a sample of oranges and hoping the result tells you more about apples or oranges. The MOE is almost certainly larger.

    Generally speaking, people tend to overrate large samples (a sample of 500 apples will tell you quite a lot about apples, a sample of 1000 not that much more) - it's more important to have consistent samples.
  • Options
    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited July 2013
    Catherine Atkinson selected by Labour in Erewash
    http://catherineatkinson.com/

    Sarwar Sr is emigrating to Pakhistan. Rumours he is in line to become governor of Punjab.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MikeSmithson said:

    In the past Lib Dems have chalked up the biggest first time incumbency bonus of any group


    RodCrosby said:

    The Edinburgh West MP is a newbie. The LD vote crashed 13.6% in 2010, in one of the LDs worst results. Probably mostly due to retirement of the previous incumbent. Labour also did extraordinarily well (the Brown effect).

    So, after building up his own vote, and the Scots due to blow Miliband a raspberry in 2015, Crockart may be safer than he looks...

    Bigger first time incumbency bonus than SNP MPs?
    Bigger first time incumbency bonus than Plaid MPs?
    Bigger first time incumbency bonus than DUP MPs?

    Link please.


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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    SD - Well I will have to be a martyr to the cause then!

    The 6 Scottish subsamples concerned had a total sample size of 582 . The Lib Dem % in the sub samples varied from 3% to 16%
    In other words, not a single SLD sub sample came even close to the 18.88% they got at UK GE 2010.

    How do you rate the SLD chances in Edinburgh West Mark?
    On the Aberdeen Donside by-election swing, the LDs would have regained Edinburgh Western at Holyrood.
    Do you have any other comforting Clifton Terrace fairy tales?
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    Chameleon_CurcuitChameleon_Curcuit Posts: 8
    Scottish sub samples. It's like a time warp.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    RodCrosby said:

    the Scots due to blow Miliband a raspberry in 2015

    Yep:

    Miliband a weak leader - Scotland: 49

    That's the joint highest with South of England 'weak' rating (and second lowest 'strong leader' @11 just behind the South of England at 10):

    Net 'strong' rating:

    OA: -34
    London: -33
    South: -39
    Mid/Wales: -28
    North: -30
    Scotland: -38

    Its come to something when the Scots and the Southern English have a similarly poor view of the Labour leader....
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    RodCrosby said:

    The Edinburgh West MP is a newbie. The LD vote crashed 13.6% in 2010, in one of the LDs worst results. Probably mostly due to retirement of the previous incumbent. Labour also did extraordinarily well (the Brown effect).

    So, after building up his own vote, and the Scots due to blow Miliband a raspberry in 2015, Crockart may be safer than he looks...

    - "... after building up his own vote..."

    Huh?
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    CarlottaVance said:

    RodCrosby said:

    the Scots due to blow Miliband a raspberry in 2015

    Yep:

    Miliband a weak leader - Scotland: 49

    That's the joint highest with South of England 'weak' rating (and second lowest 'strong leader' @11 just behind the South of England at 10):

    Net 'strong' rating:

    OA: -34
    London: -33
    South: -39
    Mid/Wales: -28
    North: -30
    Scotland: -38

    Its come to something when the Scots and the Southern English have a similarly poor view of the Labour leader....
    Indeed.

    And if you though Miliband was weak, he looks like a titan compared to the "Leader of the Scottish Labour Party".

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    Chameleon_CurcuitChameleon_Curcuit Posts: 8
    I'll have a look at the price of laying Milliband as next PM. It's intriguing that the 'fundamentals' point strongly to him leading the largest party post 15 but less strongly to him leading the government.
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    AndreaParma_82 said:


    Sarwar Sr is emigrating to Pakhistan. Rumours he is in line to become governor of Punjab.

    According to today's papers in Scotland he is to relinquish British citizenship.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The Edinburgh West MP is a newbie. The LD vote crashed 13.6% in 2010, in one of the LDs worst results. Probably mostly due to retirement of the previous incumbent. Labour also did extraordinarily well (the Brown effect).

    So, after building up his own vote, and the Scots due to blow Miliband a raspberry in 2015, Crockart may be safer than he looks...

    - "... after building up his own vote..."

    Huh?
    It often happens in LD seats, especially in Scotland. Retirements send the vote crashing, usually by not enough to see the seat lost. Next time round the new incumbent's vote soars, even against the national trend...

    Crockart may be lucky, in that 2010 was probably Labour's best chance of seizing Edinburgh West. And it's hard to see anyone else being in the running.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Dickson says " And if you though Miliband was weak, he looks like a titan compared to the "Leader of the Scottish Labour Party". "

    Nonsense. Any honest viewer of FMQs knows that Lamont beats Salmond week in week out.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @Easterross

    Apparently he has already given up British citizenship. He arrived in Pakhistan today saying "I would sincerely execute any responsibility assigned to me.”

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Chameleon_Curcuit said:

    Scottish sub samples. It's like a time warp.

    What with Mark citing wing-commander Rik's 2005 posts earlier it's been a very nostalgic afternoon.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited July 2013
    Tim - Has inevitably turned violent, clashes with police and UAF. A friend posted on facebook she also overheard an EDL member boasting on a train about beating someone up
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-23390232
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    edited July 2013
    Neil said:

    Chameleon_Curcuit said:

    Scottish sub samples. It's like a time warp.

    What with Mark citing wing-commander Rik's 2005 posts earlier it's been a very nostalgic afternoon.
    We need Colin W to make an appearance.

    I'll accept an appearance from ColinW's mum though

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    On topic, Ed short of a majority but doing well enough to be PM in 2015 sounds about right.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    tim said:

    @EDLNewsXtra: #EDL in Birmingham now. How many Sieg Heil's in this, do you reckon? http://t.co/951dPv3glP

    They're not Nazis though, honest guv

    Nah - they're reaching for their iPhones...
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    I think the people have made their mind up.

    They don't want Miliband.

    But it's not just him. The whole Labour front bench are dreadful...
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    CarlottaVance said:

    tim said:

    @EDLNewsXtra: #EDL in Birmingham now. How many Sieg Heil's in this, do you reckon? http://t.co/951dPv3glP

    They're not Nazis though, honest guv

    Nah - they're reaching for their iPhones...
    Maybe they're pledging allegiance to a flag?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellamy_salute
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Dickson says " And if you though Miliband was weak, he looks like a titan compared to the "Leader of the Scottish Labour Party". "

    Nonsense. Any honest viewer of FMQs knows that Lamont beats Salmond week in week out.

    Nah - but she is up against a far more adroit operator than Miliband, and does about as well...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Off topic - Nice of Sheffield's Joe Root to pretty much win the Ashes single handedly today.

    These Aussies are so substandard, England could select Jade Dernbach and Samit Patel for the next three matches and England would still win.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Rod - Except for Chuka, who is now the true 'heir to Blair' apparently!
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b2e9e3a6-ef46-11e2-bb27-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2ZYhZXKkZ
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    @EDLNewsXtra: #EDL in Birmingham now. How many Sieg Heil's in this, do you reckon? http://t.co/951dPv3glP

    They're not Nazis though, honest guv

    The 'Plan A Party' sign behind them is good.

    'Unable to organise a piss-up in a brewery? Call now.'
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    Chameleon_CurcuitChameleon_Curcuit Posts: 8
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, Ed short of a majority but doing well enough to be PM in 2015 sounds about right.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, Ed short of a majority but doing well enough to be PM in 2015 sounds about right.

    Certainly the 'fundamentals' of the collapsed boundary changes and inflation higher than wage rises haven't changed even if the media narrative and some economic indicators have.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    Rod - Except for Chuka, who is now the true 'heir to Blair' apparently!
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b2e9e3a6-ef46-11e2-bb27-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2ZYhZXKkZ

    Yes, more of the same, please! A rabble of chancers and narcissists scrabbling for the top job ten minutes after becoming an MP.

    Labour - not fit to manage a bus stop...

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    Chameleon_CurcuitChameleon_Curcuit Posts: 8
    He isn't white. Blood him in a seat then peerage, London Mayoral candidate, maybe the GLA list.
    tim said:

    It's a shame the Lib Dems couldn't have found this guy whatever the equivalent is of a Lib Dem safe seat in 2015

    @rob_marchant: Not often I would say so about an opposition candidate, but well done and best of luck to the excellent @MaajidNawaz.

    I bet a lot of people across the spectrum agree with that, would be a shoo in in a multi member constituency

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321
    HYUFD said:

    NP - Well, will have to trust your higher mathematical knowledge, but nonetheless if you look at a group of polls you are less likely to be at risk of a rogue poll and the average figure given for a party will probably be about where it is at

    Agree that looking at a single poll is always dangerous, especially if it's very different from others purporting to measure the same thing! But merging them is also dodgy. Since we don't know which methodology best reflects current realities, it probably makes sense to exclude the two outliers at any moment (which would currently be Labour leads of 11 and 0) and declare that the result is somewhere among the rest...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Theuniondivvie said:

    tim said:

    @EDLNewsXtra: #EDL in Birmingham now. How many Sieg Heil's in this, do you reckon? http://t.co/951dPv3glP

    They're not Nazis though, honest guv

    The 'Plan A Party' sign behind them is good.

    'Unable to organise a piss-up in a brewery? Call now.'
    About 100 yards up from where that picture was taken, there's a club called The Reflex.

    I've spent many a time in there as they play nothing but 80s music.

    It's the sort of club you could imagine me DJing


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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    RodCrosby - Didn't stop JFK, Obama, Cameron etc. Chuka is worth a bet to be PM ten years from today!
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    edited July 2013
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    @Easterross
    Apparently he has already given up British citizenship. He arrived in Pakhistan today saying "I would sincerely execute any responsibility assigned to me.”

    Some poor sod in a Pakistani gaol who's called Responsibility is now bricking it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    NP - Agree
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    It's the sort of club you could imagine me DJing

    I don't know if my imagination is that rich.
    Probably a good thing..
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    His great strong point is that he doesn't have a son called Dan Hodges - unlike the current incumbent
    tim said:

    It's a shame the Lib Dems couldn't have found this guy whatever the equivalent is of a Lib Dem safe seat in 2015

    @rob_marchant: Not often I would say so about an opposition candidate, but well done and best of luck to the excellent @MaajidNawaz.

    I bet a lot of people across the spectrum agree with that, would be a shoo in in a multi member constituency

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    This is awesome on so many levels.

    A major US science fiction series is to be filmed in Scotland, bringing about 200 new jobs and the construction of a new television studio near Glasgow.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-23374425
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    On topic - I'm happy to buy Lab majority at 2.8. Thanks whoever laid my bet on betfair.

    O/T Froome winning Le Tour, Joe Root a sensational knock and Westwood winning the golf.
    \o/
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    KP out of the rest of the test.

    If he's out of the next test, then Alex Lees has to be his replacement.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Theuniondivvie said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    @Easterross
    Apparently he has already given up British citizenship. He arrived in Pakhistan today saying "I would sincerely execute any responsibility assigned to me.”

    Some poor sod in a Pakistani gaol who's called Responsibility is now bricking it.
    Probably not a million miles off the truth.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is awesome on so many levels.

    A major US science fiction series is to be filmed in Scotland, bringing about 200 new jobs and the construction of a new television studio near Glasgow.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-23374425

    Glasgow has featured in a couple of recent major movies - as Philadelphia in World War Z - and London in Fast & Furious 6.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    The EDL* dancing in Birmingham today

    https://twitter.com/WarisAli90/status/358584756998389762

    *The other EDL, the English Disco Lovers
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    edited July 2013
    CarlottaVance said:


    Glasgow has featured in a couple of recent major movies - as Philadelphia in World War Z - and London in Fast & Furious 6.

    Yeah, there were also scenes shot for Cloud Atlas last year, and there's a Bollywood movie starting next week.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    CarlottaVance said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Dickson says " And if you though Miliband was weak, he looks like a titan compared to the "Leader of the Scottish Labour Party". "

    Nonsense. Any honest viewer of FMQs knows that Lamont beats Salmond week in week out.

    Nah - but she is up against a far more adroit operator than Miliband, and does about as well...
    About as well as Michael Foot.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Theuniondivvie said:

    CarlottaVance said:


    Glasgow has featured in a couple of recent major movies - as Philadelphia in World War Z - and London in Fast & Furious 6.

    Yeah, there were also scenes shot for Cloud Atlas last year, and there's a Bollywood movie starting next week.
    Cloud Atlas is one of my top five films of the year so far.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    tim said:

    @EDLNewsXtra: #EDL in Birmingham now. How many Sieg Heil's in this, do you reckon? http://t.co/951dPv3glP

    They're not Nazis though, honest guv

    Would be interesting to see video footage of that. If they are singing a song such as 'no surrender' they point each time they say 'no' and a still photo would mistakenly look like a nazi salute
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    edited July 2013
    isam said:

    tim said:

    @EDLNewsXtra: #EDL in Birmingham now. How many Sieg Heil's in this, do you reckon? http://t.co/951dPv3glP

    They're not Nazis though, honest guv

    Would be interesting to see video footage of that. If they are singing a song such as 'no surrender' they point each time they say 'no' and a still photo would mistakenly look like a nazi salute
    Judging by the EDLers I saw in Manchester a few weeks ago, it is most likely to be Nazi salutes.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @isam

    I couldnt make out a single nazi saute in the photo. Doesnt mean the EDL isnt a bunch of neo-nazis though.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Neil said:

    @isam

    I couldnt make out a single nazi saute in the photo. Doesnt mean the EDL isnt a bunch of neo-nazis though.

    Have you seen this?

    The LGBT EDL Group

    http://www.leftfootforward.org/2013/07/english-defence-league-lgbt-division/
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Harper Polling - 2016 GOP Primary poll Wyoming

    Paul Ryan 15%
    Rand Paul 12%
    Chris Christie 10%
    Jeb Bush 10%
    Marco Rubio 10%
    Ted Cruz 5%
    Rick Santorum 3%
    Bobby Jindal 2%
    Scott Walker 1%
    Not sure 33%
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Neil said:

    @isam

    I couldnt make out a single nazi saute in the photo. Doesnt mean the EDL isnt a bunch of neo-nazis though.

    EDL , another nasty nationalist party with dubious links. They're all the same.

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TSE

    Gays involved in the far-right movement ... who on earth is shocked by that any more?! I mean the uniforms alone...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Neil said:

    @TSE

    Gays involved in the far-right movement ... who on earth is shocked by that any more?! I mean the uniforms alone...

    We need Sean Fear to post his list of the the UK far right's history of gays and incest.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,213
    tim said:

    RodCrosby said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rod - Except for Chuka, who is now the true 'heir to Blair' apparently!
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b2e9e3a6-ef46-11e2-bb27-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2ZYhZXKkZ

    Yes, more of the same, please! A rabble of chancers and narcissists scrabbling for the top job ten minutes after becoming an MP.

    Labour - not fit to manage a bus stop...

    Looks like Labour has lost the William Joyce vote then
    Did Churchill really say "we've slaughtered the wrong pig" in 1945 (as claimed by Rod C on last night's PB NightHawks)?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Oh hell

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 44s

    West Mids Police: 25-year-old man questioned over explosions at 3 Mosques arrested in connection with murder of pensioner Mohammed Saleem
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Good evening, everyone.

    Rather nicer day than has been the case recently, I thought. Still a bit muggy now, but glad the day was fresher.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Although this year cannot match the Olympics of 2012, they seem alright from a sporting perspective.

    There's a Lions win (over Australia), the Tour de France (part 2: Tour Harder), Murray's epic Wimbledon victory, and the Ashes is going well, so far.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    edited July 2013
    MonikerDiCanio said:


    EDL , another nasty nationalist party with dubious links. They're all the same.

    You mean like UK nationalist confederation Bettertogether, supported by BNP, UKIP, EDL, SDL, the Orange Order, UVF, PUP and UDA/UFF? They are certainly proof of your hypothesis.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Is the Scottish referendum set for September?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Is the Scottish referendum set for September?

    September 2014

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Eagles, cheers (although I did know it was due next year!).
This discussion has been closed.