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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling background to the PM’s big BREXIT speech

SystemSystem Posts: 11,683
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling background to the PM’s big BREXIT speech

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  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    First like Mrs May
  • Options
    Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    Well FWIW I expect the LD's to be proved right on this issue.
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    I'm looking for how she plans to unite the country - the pre-trailed stuff talks about the need to bring the country together and stop talking in terms of Leavers and Remainers. Fair enough - but I want to see how she will achieve this, there's very little in the pre-publicised extracts to satisfy anything other than the committed leavers.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,335
    Ally_B said:

    Well FWIW I expect the LD's to be proved right on this issue.

    On what?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,335
    tpfkar said:

    I'm looking for how she plans to unite the country - the pre-trailed stuff talks about the need to bring the country together and stop talking in terms of Leavers and Remainers. Fair enough - but I want to see how she will achieve this, there's very little in the pre-publicised extracts to satisfy anything other than the committed leavers.

    I agree that is the challenge. I am also interested.
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    tpfkar said:

    I'm looking for how she plans to unite the country - the pre-trailed stuff talks about the need to bring the country together and stop talking in terms of Leavers and Remainers. Fair enough - but I want to see how she will achieve this, there's very little in the pre-publicised extracts to satisfy anything other than the committed leavers.

    You might just as well try to reunite a chicken with its head.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,966
    12objectives seems a lot.Fewer than 6 is recommended in preparing a strategy.
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    tpfkar said:

    I'm looking for how she plans to unite the country - the pre-trailed stuff talks about the need to bring the country together and stop talking in terms of Leavers and Remainers. Fair enough - but I want to see how she will achieve this, there's very little in the pre-publicised extracts to satisfy anything other than the committed leavers.

    She should have started that 4 months ago. Her Tory party speech was disastrous in that regard. Her 'citizens of nowhere' phrasing shows how she really thinks.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tpfkar said:

    I'm looking for how she plans to unite the country - the pre-trailed stuff talks about the need to bring the country together and stop talking in terms of Leavers and Remainers. Fair enough - but I want to see how she will achieve this, there's very little in the pre-publicised extracts to satisfy anything other than the committed leavers.

    Similar to the way Henry VIII reunited the country after the reformation - the followers of the European based undemocratic deity can either flee to France/Flanders or be burnt alive and their property confiscated.

    If that's a "hard Brexit" then well "shrug"...

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,674
    dixiedean said:

    12objectives seems a lot.Fewer than 6 is recommended in preparing a strategy.

    3.......
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,335
    JonathanD said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm looking for how she plans to unite the country - the pre-trailed stuff talks about the need to bring the country together and stop talking in terms of Leavers and Remainers. Fair enough - but I want to see how she will achieve this, there's very little in the pre-publicised extracts to satisfy anything other than the committed leavers.

    She should have started that 4 months ago. Her Tory party speech was disastrous in that regard. Her 'citizens of nowhere' phrasing shows how she really thinks.
    Although, from a legal perspective, she's correct: you can't be stateless.

    And, if you are a citizen of a state enjoying its freedoms and protections, you also have duties and obligations to it, even if you may hold dual (or even tri) citizenship, and can't 9or shouldn't) absent yourself from them.

    We all live in communities.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718
    TGOHF said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm looking for how she plans to unite the country - the pre-trailed stuff talks about the need to bring the country together and stop talking in terms of Leavers and Remainers. Fair enough - but I want to see how she will achieve this, there's very little in the pre-publicised extracts to satisfy anything other than the committed leavers.

    Similar to the way Henry VIII reunited the country after the reformation - the followers of the European based undemocratic deity can either flee to France/Flanders or be burnt alive and their property confiscated.

    If that's a "hard Brexit" then well "shrug"...

    Agreed, her talk of 'bringing the country together' will be about as meaningful as this from Thatcher:
    ‘Where there is discord, may we bring harmony."
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,335
    dixiedean said:

    12objectives seems a lot.Fewer than 6 is recommended in preparing a strategy.

    Gives her a chance to say we achieved full success on 7, partial on 3, but traded away on two.

    Better than having three 'general' objectives, and being all wishy-washy about whether or not the outcome matches the rhetoric on all of them.

    The way the objectives have been crafted are - like everything else - part of the politics of the negotiation strategy.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    logical_song said:

    TGOHF said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm looking for how she plans to unite the country - the pre-trailed stuff talks about the need to bring the country together and stop talking in terms of Leavers and Remainers. Fair enough - but I want to see how she will achieve this, there's very little in the pre-publicised extracts to satisfy anything other than the committed leavers.

    Similar to the way Henry VIII reunited the country after the reformation - the followers of the European based undemocratic deity can either flee to France/Flanders or be burnt alive and their property confiscated.

    If that's a "hard Brexit" then well "shrug"...

    Agreed, her talk of 'bringing the country together' will be about as meaningful as this from Thatcher:
    ‘Where there is discord, may we bring harmony."
    And a second glorious revolution and age of enlightenment will follow as we emerge from the dark shadow of backward continental diktat....
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    Theresa May's wearing the tartan suit she wore to launch her leadership bid.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Same tartan suit she was wearing when she announced her leadership bid.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,674
    edited January 2017
    williamglenn said:

    Theresa May's wearing the tartan suit she wore to launch her leadership bid.

    Watching online?

    Edit: Live stream on Grauniad:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jan/17/theresa-may-brexit-speech-pound-steadies-ahead-of-theresa-mays-brexit-speech-politics-live
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    FPT
    glw said:

    Slackbladder said:

    You also have to remember in the 80s this was pre- fall of the berlin wall. The EU didn't have all the eastern european countries in it, and no one would have though it would at the time, including Thatcher.

    If the EU still consisted of pretty much only Western European countries, then the view of it might be rather different.

    Exactly.

    If you have a favourite old pub that is taken over by a brewer and modernised (crap food and Sky blaring out round the clock) then you stop going. Only a bloody fool doesn't change their mind when circumstances change.
    THERE ARE NO OTHER PUBS IN OUR VILLAGE.

    We've stormed out at the end of a bad night - pissed - and announced to the bouncer that we're going to open our own, better, pub and actually we don't want to drink ever again (although can we finish our pint first please?) and our new pub will be so much better and just like the good old days and pints will cost 90p and it'll have a jukebox and everything.

    And the bouncer nods his head.
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    JonathanD said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm looking for how she plans to unite the country - the pre-trailed stuff talks about the need to bring the country together and stop talking in terms of Leavers and Remainers. Fair enough - but I want to see how she will achieve this, there's very little in the pre-publicised extracts to satisfy anything other than the committed leavers.

    She should have started that 4 months ago. Her Tory party speech was disastrous in that regard. Her 'citizens of nowhere' phrasing shows how she really thinks.
    Totally agree. The political low of many in 2016 for me, well ahead of Trump and Brexit. My wife is German and she was in tears at that. I was just angry, who does she think she is to decide our identity, not everyone is interested in her petty nationalism.

    We have seriously discussed leaving the country, although we've so many commitments at the moment (not least that she's pregnant!) the time isn't right. But our Flanders option would be the rolling fields of Bavaria. We could do a lot worse.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tpfkar said:

    JonathanD said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm looking for how she plans to unite the country - the pre-trailed stuff talks about the need to bring the country together and stop talking in terms of Leavers and Remainers. Fair enough - but I want to see how she will achieve this, there's very little in the pre-publicised extracts to satisfy anything other than the committed leavers.

    She should have started that 4 months ago. Her Tory party speech was disastrous in that regard. Her 'citizens of nowhere' phrasing shows how she really thinks.
    . But our Flanders option would be the rolling fields of Bavaria. We could do a lot worse.
    Can you see the new Syrian asylum centre from there ?
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Embrace the world.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,223
    edited January 2017
    Pong said:

    FPT

    glw said:

    Slackbladder said:

    You also have to remember in the 80s this was pre- fall of the berlin wall. The EU didn't have all the eastern european countries in it, and no one would have though it would at the time, including Thatcher.

    If the EU still consisted of pretty much only Western European countries, then the view of it might be rather different.

    Exactly.

    If you have a favourite old pub that is taken over by a brewer and modernised (crap food and Sky blaring out round the clock) then you stop going. Only a bloody fool doesn't change their mind when circumstances change.
    THERE ARE NO OTHER PUBS IN OUR VILLAGE.

    We've stormed out at the end of a bad night - pissed - and announced to the bouncer that we're going to open our own, better, pub and actually we don't want to drink ever again (although can we finish our pint first please?) and our new pub will be so much better and just like the good old days and pints will cost 90p and it'll have a jukebox and everything.

    And the bouncer nods his head.
    Ironically EU was expanded eastwards in order to cement their post-communist democracies. Now seems we are rather lukewarm on combating Putin's moves to undo that work.
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Pong said:

    FPT

    glw said:

    Slackbladder said:

    You also have to remember in the 80s this was pre- fall of the berlin wall. The EU didn't have all the eastern european countries in it, and no one would have though it would at the time, including Thatcher.

    If the EU still consisted of pretty much only Western European countries, then the view of it might be rather different.

    Exactly.

    If you have a favourite old pub that is taken over by a brewer and modernised (crap food and Sky blaring out round the clock) then you stop going. Only a bloody fool doesn't change their mind when circumstances change.
    THERE ARE NO OTHER PUBS IN OUR VILLAGE.

    We've stormed out at the end of a bad night - pissed - and announced to the bouncer that we're going to open our own, better, pub and actually we don't want to drink ever again (although can we finish our pint first please?) and our new pub will be so much better and just like the good old days and pints will cost 90p and it'll have a jukebox and everything.

    And the bouncer nods his head.
    And then you do and the old pub goes out of business
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Reuters Top News ‏@Reuters 14h14 hours ago

    Serbia wants to annex part of Kosovo using 'Crimea model': president http://reut.rs/2jpCdeG
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,223
    May on now. BBC News live.
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Reform of schools.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    rottenborough said:

    May on now. BBC News live.

    Any cliches, tautologies or otherwise meaningless phrases yet ?
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Preserve the Union.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    FPT -
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/guardianheather/status/821322560595984384

    Someone's in the wrong place....

    twitter.com/isaby/status/821322107732819968/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
    Perhaps they have given the Guardian journos their own special room...a safe space to watch it :-)
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    williamglenn said:

    Theresa May's wearing the tartan suit she wore to launch her leadership bid.

    Government tartan of The Black Watch?
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Racially diverse, relationships with globe.
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    A truly global Britain.
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    EU must succeed.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Sounding more like Dan Hannan than Nigel Farage so far...
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Governments must be directly held to account.
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Cameron's valiant final attempt at reform.
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Eu's vice-like grip.
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Leaving EU but not Europe.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    Blue_rog said:

    Pong said:

    FPT

    glw said:

    Slackbladder said:

    You also have to remember in the 80s this was pre- fall of the berlin wall. The EU didn't have all the eastern european countries in it, and no one would have though it would at the time, including Thatcher.

    If the EU still consisted of pretty much only Western European countries, then the view of it might be rather different.

    Exactly.

    If you have a favourite old pub that is taken over by a brewer and modernised (crap food and Sky blaring out round the clock) then you stop going. Only a bloody fool doesn't change their mind when circumstances change.
    THERE ARE NO OTHER PUBS IN OUR VILLAGE.

    We've stormed out at the end of a bad night - pissed - and announced to the bouncer that we're going to open our own, better, pub and actually we don't want to drink ever again (although can we finish our pint first please?) and our new pub will be so much better and just like the good old days and pints will cost 90p and it'll have a jukebox and everything.

    And the bouncer nods his head.
    And then you do and the old pub goes out of business
    More likely they both go out of business, new pub with the heaviest losses.
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    One big goal.A new positive partnership with Europe.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    frpenkridge said:

    Preserve the Union.

    Horse has bolted on that one
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @WikiGuido: Philip Hammond has just told the Commons we will not be in the single market
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    So much for the sterling bears.

    'Pound surges'
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    "We do not seek to hold on to bits of membership as we leave. No - the United Kingdom is leaving"
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sandpit said:

    Sounding more like Dan Hannan than Nigel Farage so far...

    Thank goodness for that..
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    frpenkridge said:

    Preserve the Union.

    Horse has bolted on that one
    The horse refused at the first and second fence you mean..
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    PlatoSaid said:

    "We do not seek to hold on to bits of membership as we leave. No - the United Kingdom is leaving"

    Who would have thought it it: Brexit means Brexit.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rosschawkins: Final EU deal to be put to vote in both houses - May
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/821326770012098560
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Control of own laws.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    At the moment, May gets support of around 65-70% of UK voters with this speech.

    Cor, if we did have to have an election there would be a stonking majority for the Tories after this.....
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Pound up a cent against the dollar in the last 20 minutes.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Sandpit said:

    Pound up a cent against the dollar in the last 20 minutes.

    I wish the broadcasters had taken TSE's advice and shown a tracker underneath!
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    May throwing a devolution sweetner there?
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Special relationship with Ireland to be maintained.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,297
    Very confident, concillatory and yes inspiring - She is nailing this
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Suggesting some devolution of powers returned from Brussles.
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Attract the brightest and best from Europe. But controlled.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Sandpit said:

    Pound up a cent against the dollar in the last 20 minutes.

    Markets looking forward to "clean Brexit". By definition that is quite hard.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    Sandpit said:

    Suggesting some devolution of powers returned from Brussles.

    Scotland to negotiate its own trade deals? :)
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,223
    nunu said:

    Reuters Top News ‏@Reuters 14h14 hours ago

    Serbia wants to annex part of Kosovo using 'Crimea model': president http://reut.rs/2jpCdeG

    The echoes from President Wilson's 'self determination' model, still reverberate in the Balkans.

    Highly dangerous. And Trump won't be doing much and indeed will probably send out a tweet which makes things worse.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Sandpit said:

    Suggesting some devolution of powers returned from Brussles.

    Clever. Very clever.

    Making the positions of David Cameron, and perhaps more importantly Osborne, Farron and Corbyn, look very out of touch.

    I look forward to the post speech polls....
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Brexit must mean control of immigration from Europe.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "controlled immigration from EU"


  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Workers' rights to be protected.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,297
    Pound rising strongly
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    A truly global Britain. Free Trade.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    "What I'm proposing cannot mean membership of the single market."
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    No membership of single market.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,297
    Membership of single market ended
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,674
    Dig at Merkel?

    Many EU leaders want to agree quickly deal guaranteeing rights of EU citizens in UK and UK Citizens in the EU - some do not.
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Seek greatest access to single market possible.
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Comprehensive free trade agreement with EU.
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    End of vast contributions to EU.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,223
    What if the EU abandons Free Movement before March 2019?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    rottenborough said:

    What if the EU abandons Free Movement before March 2019?

    Doubtful.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    May is nailing this.
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Liam Fox!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Somebody at Sky is reading PB....
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "days of Britain making vast contributions to EU every year are over..."

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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    CarlottaVance said:

    Dig at Merkel?

    Many EU leaders want to agree quickly deal guaranteeing rights of EU citizens in UK and UK Citizens in the EU - some do not.

    The UK does need to go on the attack in the EU as to the downsides of the EU in a way that the other countries can sympathise with.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    frpenkridge said:

    Liam Fox!

    She choked on that.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Interesting reading views of the speech here (not watching). I look forward to the devolution of powers to England.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Customs union fudge...
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,616
    Red Brexit?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Somebody at Sky is reading PB....

    :)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    SandyRentool said:

    Red Brexit?

    Reddy Brexit.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Slackbladder said:

    May is nailing this.

    Absolutely.

    Cue a few orange book tories kicking up a fuss.
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Customs Union: an agreement with EU. Associate member? To be negotiated.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    The pound rose because she said that there would be a parliamentary vote on the deal.

    i.e., because the market is still in denial, and is hoping that Brexit can be scuppered in some way.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,223
    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    What if the EU abandons Free Movement before March 2019?

    Doubtful.
    Dunno. If the French vote in LePen.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    frpenkridge said:

    Customs Union: an agreement with EU. Associate member? To be negotiated.

    I'm not watching but essentially we're going for a Turkish relationship with the EU ?
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Looks to me like we'll have a customs union with the EU, but not be in the EU customs union.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    rottenborough said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    What if the EU abandons Free Movement before March 2019?

    Doubtful.
    Dunno. If the French vote in LePen.
    They won't though :>
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Terrorist threat: future practical co-op with EU.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    edited January 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The pound rose because she said that there would be a parliamentary vote on the deal.

    i.e., because the market is still in denial, and is hoping that Brexit can be scuppered in some way.

    You're right, but that is bloody stupid isn't it. This is the speech of a determined leader.

    A vote being tabled means a vote would pass. And a vote would have to pass for the deal to be signed and made law....
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,674
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The pound rose because she said that there would be a parliamentary vote on the deal.

    i.e., because the market is still in denial, and is hoping that Brexit can be scuppered in some way.

    And if Parliament votes down the deal don't we simply crash out with no deal?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Mortimer said:

    Slackbladder said:

    May is nailing this.

    Absolutely.

    Cue a few orange book tories kicking up a fuss.
    Excellent speech, I've been very chary about her - this delivery dispels those worries for me.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Mortimer said:

    Looks to me like we'll have a customs union with the EU, but not be in the EU customs union.

    Probably for certain things like cars/aerospace
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Mortimer said:

    Looks to me like we'll have a customs union with the EU, but not be in the EU customs union.

    That's an important distinction.

    Of course, it takes two (or in this case 28) to tango, and there's absolutely no guarantee that what she wants will be on offer.
This discussion has been closed.