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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s big speech – a round up of reaction

Theresa May promises a Parliamentary vote on @Brexit, but what does that mean? We explain https://t.co/SvqS1P6UEa pic.twitter.com/uVzopLB3Yb

Read the full story here

Sandpit

Not first again surely?

JosiasJessop

A poor second.

SimonStClare

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

rkrkrk

Repostwd but I think Starmer reaction is really strange...

Has Keir hurt his chances of replacing Corbyn?

Having said two days ago the PM should rule out hard brexit and commit to single market... He now says she has!?

Feels like he just hasn't been paying attention? Surely other labour MPs won't be keen on this?
He's supposed to be trying to look competent...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/15/brexit-theresa-may-speech-single-market-labour-keir-starmer

tpfkar

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Scott_P

@MichaelLCrick: Officially Stoke Ukip members will pick candidate on Fri night. In effect, decision tonight when Ukip bigwigs will give go-ahead to Nuttall

RobD

I see Sterling had a good day.. *innocent face*

TGOHF

Assume the positive tweets regarding the speech are being updated to the header as we speak.......

malcolmg

RobD said:

I see Sterling had a good day.. *innocent face*

interest rate rise panic

DavidL

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

williamglenn

RobD said:

I see Sterling had a good day.. *innocent face*

It's safe to go back to your Theresa 'superhero' May avatar.

Sandpit

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@MichaelLCrick: Ukip source says they're picking candidate for Stoke Central tonight. Leader Paul Nuttall IS in the running, I'm told

UKIP 3.35 on Betfair, will surely come in if they pick Nuttall?
Tories 12.5 looks value too, or does someone know they're not even going to try?

RobD

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

I see Sterling had a good day.. *innocent face*

It's safe to go back to your Theresa 'superhero' May avatar.

I think I prefer the one @Morris_Dancer found with her flanked by imperial guards from Star Wars

Scott_P

DavidL said:

Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

@sunny_hundal: Seriously. I still can't believe Corbyn's reponse to May's Brexit speech today was some academic waffle about needing more detail. Fucked

chestnut

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

I see Sterling had a good day.. *innocent face*

interest rate rise panic

All the way up from 0.25%.

Looks like we might finally see a return to some normality.

David_Evershed

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

We may disagree but it is very quotable.

Normally hard for Lib Dems to get any media coverage.

Sunil_Prasannan

Poor Mike has to resort to filling the thread header with negative Tweets

RobD

In other news: Vladimir Putin: 'our prostitutes are the best in the world, but I doubt Donald Trump would fall for them' ...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/russia-calls-british-author-donald-trump-dossier-runaway-swindler/

SandyRentool

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Jason

Farron has a position to stick to for the lib dems to have any chance of surviving in future general elections, so I understand why he spouts the bs he does to appease Remainers. As desperately irritating and as transparent as he is, it is at least a marked position - unlike Labour's. Who can say with any conviction what Labour's position is? To remain members of the single market is to remain a member of the EU, yet all the front bench hacks keeps saying they will not block A50 or vote against the government proposals.

Never has a front bench of any party looked so woefully inadequate as Labour's does right now.

rcs1000

Sandpit said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@MichaelLCrick: Ukip source says they're picking candidate for Stoke Central tonight. Leader Paul Nuttall IS in the running, I'm told

UKIP 3.35 on Betfair, will surely come in if they pick Nuttall?
Tories 12.5 looks value too, or does someone know they're not even going to try?

I could be wrong, but I suspect there are shy Labour voters in Stoke, simply because Tristram was... errr... not a natural fit for the constituency.

tpfkar

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

Good point. Although just imagine you are Jeremy Corbyn, sitting in the House, having to respond to the speech you are hearing in front of you in an informed and coherent manner in the most intense scrutiny, knowing your party is totally split. At least he escaped that.

CarlottaVance

TGOHF said:

Assume the positive tweets regarding the speech are being updated to the header as we speak.......

Don't hold your breath.....

Heck.....even the FT was vaguely positive:

http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-speech-means-the-brexit-phony-war-may-be-ending/

logical_song

"Pound soars as Theresa May soothes European single market fears
Pound on course for biggest rise in eight years after PM says she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."
Citywire Money

DavidL

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

CarlottaVance

Matthew Goodwin: Some folks need reality check. If appeals to economic self-interest worked we would have voted to Remain. PM May will be v popular. Watch.

CarlottaVance

Both Labour & the SNP chewing wasps:

7. Protect workers’ rights

And a fairer Britain is a country that protects and enhances the rights people have at work.

That is why, as we translate the body of European law into our domestic regulations, we will ensure that workers rights are fully protected and maintained.

Indeed, under my leadership, not only will the Government protect the rights of workers’ set out in European legislation, we will build on them. Because under this Conservative Government, we will make sure legal protection for workers keeps pace with the changing labour market – and that the voices of workers are heard by the boards of publicly-listed companies for the first time.

PClipp

SandyRentool said:

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

About time if it does!

Scott_P

CarlottaVance said:

Matthew Goodwin: Some folks need reality check. If appeals to economic self-interest worked we would have voted to Remain. PM May will be v popular. Watch.

True, except her speech was all about appealing to the economic self interest of the rest of the EU

By his own logic she will be very unpopular with them

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

I see Sterling had a good day.. *innocent face*

It's safe to go back to your Theresa 'superhero' May avatar.

I think I prefer the one @Morris_Dancer found with her flanked by imperial guards from Star Wars

"It is a period of civil war. LEAVE spaceships, striking from a hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil EUROPEAN UNION.

During the battle, LEAVE spies managed to steal secret plans to the EU's ultimate weapon, the TECHNOCRAT, an armoured space station with enough power to destroy an entire member state's economy!

Pursued by the sinister pro-EU REMAINERs, Princess Theresa races home aboard her starship, custodian of the stolen plans that can save these islands and restore FREEDOM to the Continent...."

https://brorlandi.github.io/StarWarsIntroCreator/#!/AKahOlAk7L6C254apaII

NB. plays best in Chrome!

Scott_P

@IanDunt: Security cooperation is a core component of UK Brexit strategy, but think what that entails: Give us what we want or we stop helping.

@IanDunt: As in the EU citizens case, it's worth imagining what happens if they call our bluff. We get intelligence of an impending attack And what?

@IanDunt: We do nothing and tell no-one? Morally unthinkable. But then the government keeps asking us to consider the morally unthinkable.

Sandpit

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@MichaelLCrick: Ukip source says they're picking candidate for Stoke Central tonight. Leader Paul Nuttall IS in the running, I'm told

UKIP 3.35 on Betfair, will surely come in if they pick Nuttall?
Tories 12.5 looks value too, or does someone know they're not even going to try?

I could be wrong, but I suspect there are shy Labour voters in Stoke, simply because Tristram was... errr... not a natural fit for the constituency.

That's a possibility, as is the chance that a fair few Tories might have voted for Hunt. Still Labour's to lose though, assuming they don't parachute in Polly from Islington.

My uncle lives in Stoke, I'll try and tap him up for his view on the by-election.

RobD

Scott_P said:

CarlottaVance said:

Matthew Goodwin: Some folks need reality check. If appeals to economic self-interest worked we would have voted to Remain. PM May will be v popular. Watch.

True, except her speech was all about appealing to the economic self interest of the rest of the EU

By his own logic she will be very unpopular with them

Of course. You're hardly going to be the most popular person in the room if you are negotiating to leave.

Scott_P

RobD said:

Of course. You're hardly going to be the most popular person in the room if you are negotiating to leave.

...and again following his logic they will tell us to fuck off, as we did to them.

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

I see Sterling had a good day.. *innocent face*

It's safe to go back to your Theresa 'superhero' May avatar.

I think I prefer the one @Morris_Dancer found with her flanked by imperial guards from Star Wars

"It is a period of civil war. LEAVE spaceships, striking from a hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil EUROPEAN UNION.

During the battle, LEAVE spies managed to steal secret plans to the EU's ultimate weapon, the TECHNOCRAT, an armoured space station with enough power to destroy an entire member state's economy!

Pursued by the sinister pro-EU REMAINERs, Princess Theresa races home aboard her starship, custodian of the stolen plans that can save these islands and restore FREEDOM to the Continent...."

https://brorlandi.github.io/StarWarsIntroCreator/#!/AKahOlAk7L6C254apaII

NB. plays best in Chrome!

Episode A50... titters.

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

CarlottaVance said:

Matthew Goodwin: Some folks need reality check. If appeals to economic self-interest worked we would have voted to Remain. PM May will be v popular. Watch.

True, except her speech was all about appealing to the economic self interest of the rest of the EU

One part of it was about the consequences of a 'Punishment Brexit' - the vast majority of her speech was what Britain would be doing.....

TGOHF

Tim (F) has an enviable position compared with Nicola -

Her options are to call a referendum to leave a big single market to retain a small one whilst ditching the pound for the Euro or scuttle away to the shadows grumbling.

The written statement rather than the tour of the news studios suggests she's already picked the latter.

dr_spyn

What happened to Labour's reaction? Have they all become Trappists?

malcolmg

logical_song said:

"Pound soars as Theresa May soothes European single market fears
Pound on course for biggest rise in eight years after PM says she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."
Citywire Money

LOL, up 2% after dropping 20% , what turkeys.

RobD

Scott_P said:

@IanDunt: Security cooperation is a core component of UK Brexit strategy, but think what that entails: Give us what we want or we stop helping.

@IanDunt: As in the EU citizens case, it's worth imagining what happens if they call our bluff. We get intelligence of an impending attack And what?

@IanDunt: We do nothing and tell no-one? Morally unthinkable. But then the government keeps asking us to consider the morally unthinkable.

Probably more to intelligence sharing than warning of impending attacks. And on the EU citizens case, wasn't it May who was pushing for a quick deal but was rebuffed by the EU?

logical_song

malcolmg said:

logical_song said:

"Pound soars as Theresa May soothes European single market fears
Pound on course for biggest rise in eight years after PM says she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."
Citywire Money

LOL, up 2% after dropping 20% , what turkeys.

Agreed. It was this bit that surprised me:
"she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."

Scott_P

logical_song said:

Agreed. It was this bit that surprised me:
"she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."

She is following the AA Gill playbook word for word...

That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”

When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”

williamglenn

TGOHF said:

The written statement rather than the tour of the news studios suggests she's already picked the latter.

Don't agree. Nicola needs to bide her time until the Supreme Court pronounces and the constitutional A50 process is under way.

Scott_P

@MichaelLCrick: Ukip spokesman says it's rubbish that Nuttall will be picked as candidate for Stoke Central by-election tonight. Nominations close tomorrow.

glw

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

I could never vote Lib Dem again with him in charge, he's a spanner.

Yorkcity

malcolmg said:

logical_song said:

"Pound soars as Theresa May soothes European single market fears
Pound on course for biggest rise in eight years after PM says she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."
Citywire Money

LOL, up 2% after dropping 20% , what turkeys.

Surely Nicola Sturgeon will now be preparing for Independence referendum ?

DavidL

Scott_P said:

@IanDunt: Security cooperation is a core component of UK Brexit strategy, but think what that entails: Give us what we want or we stop helping.

@IanDunt: As in the EU citizens case, it's worth imagining what happens if they call our bluff. We get intelligence of an impending attack And what?

@IanDunt: We do nothing and tell no-one? Morally unthinkable. But then the government keeps asking us to consider the morally unthinkable.

That really is simplistic nonsense. There is every difference in the world between passing on hard information of an imminent attack (which we would of course do) and having detailed day to day co-operation which passes on a great deal of material not obviously of use on its own but which allows other countries to join the dots when added to what they already have. No one else in the EU has made anything like the investment we have in GCHQ and no one else has the US material that we have to add to it. If the EU thinks it can do without it or continues to angst about whether it is compatible with the ECHR as adopted into the EU treaties that is a matter for them but I suspect those who are at risk may have a view that differs from some of the legalists.

dr_spyn

Perhaps Jezza will ask his good friend Paul to stand in Stoke, to show the voters the way.

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/821405655080824832

logical_song

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

CarlottaVance

Can't image why Danny '5 million unemployed' Blanchflower wasn't included in the twitterfest:

https://order-order.com/2017/01/17/david-blanchflower-does-it-again/

MarqueeMark

How are the Remoaners today? Wanna be sedated? Or accusing the Leavers of a dancing a Blitzkrieg Bop?

Barnesian

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@MichaelLCrick: Ukip source says they're picking candidate for Stoke Central tonight. Leader Paul Nuttall IS in the running, I'm told

UKIP 3.35 on Betfair, will surely come in if they pick Nuttall?
Tories 12.5 looks value too, or does someone know they're not even going to try?

I could be wrong, but I suspect there are shy Labour voters in Stoke, simply because Tristram was... errr... not a natural fit for the constituency.

I agree. That is why my money is on Labour winning Stoke.

glw

DavidL said:

There is every difference in the world between passing on hard information of an imminent attack (which we would of course do)

We've done that even with Russia.

MarqueeMark

TGOHF said:

Tim (F) has an enviable position compared with Nicola -

Her options are to call a referendum to leave a big single market to retain a small one whilst ditching the pound for the Euro or scuttle away to the shadows grumbling.

The written statement rather than the tour of the news studios suggests she's already picked the latter.

His unenviable position is being an utter cock.

Scott_P

MarqueeMark said:

How are the Remoaners today? Wanna be sedated? Or accusing the Leavers of a dancing a Blitzkrieg Bop?

This guy seems happy enough

https://twitter.com/edwardineurope/status/821128582504337408

DavidL

Scott_P said:

logical_song said:

Agreed. It was this bit that surprised me:
"she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."

She is following the AA Gill playbook word for word...

That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”

When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”

Got a copy of his autobiography Pour me a Life recently. Really looking forward to it. His column was one of my favourite bits of the ST. Not because I would ever be going to any of the restaurants he reviewed but because of the vivid brilliance of his language. There was always at least a couple of sentences which just made you think, wow, to be able to write like that.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/nicolasturgeon/status/821408279842668544

nunu

Scott_P said:

CarlottaVance said:

Matthew Goodwin: Some folks need reality check. If appeals to economic self-interest worked we would have voted to Remain. PM May will be v popular. Watch.

True, except her speech was all about appealing to the economic self interest of the rest of the EU

By his own logic she will be very unpopular with them

Can they vote for her? No.

Scott_P

Oh dear, I can see another protest march...

@holyroodmandy: Not sure @huwbbc should be passing comment that @NicolaSturgeon was being "less than constructive" re:@theresa_may Brexit speech

Sunil_Prasannan

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/nicolasturgeon/status/821408279842668544

2014:
UNIONISTS 55%
BRAVEHEARTS 45%

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

@MichaelLCrick: Ukip spokesman says it's rubbish that Nuttall will be picked as candidate for Stoke Central by-election tonight. Nominations close tomorrow.

Fake news?

nunu

dr_spyn said:

What happened to Labour's reaction? Have they all become Trappists?

Problem for Corbyn he agrees with it all but his party don't.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/821408016163487744

MarqueeMark

Scott_P said:

Oh dear, I can see another protest march...

@holyroodmandy: Not sure @huwbbc should be passing comment that @NicolaSturgeon was being "less than constructive" re:@theresa_may Brexit speech

They'll rue the day....

RobD

Scott_P said:

MarqueeMark said:

How are the Remoaners today? Wanna be sedated? Or accusing the Leavers of a dancing a Blitzkrieg Bop?

This guy seems happy enough

https://twitter.com/edwardineurope/status/821128582504337408

I thought there was a whole montage of videos showing leave campaigners saying that it would mean leaving the single market.

Sandpit

Danny "5 million unemployed" has been at it again!
https://twitter.com/D_Blanchflower/status/821137297420775433

DavidL

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

SimonStClare

CarlottaVance said:

Can't image why Danny '5 million unemployed' Blanchflower wasn't included in the twitterfest:

https://order-order.com/2017/01/17/david-blanchflower-does-it-again/

Danny Blanchflower must be up for the Lady Bracknell award for poor prediction, these outbursts by him are beginning to look like carelessness...

Casino_Royale

Sandpit said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@MichaelLCrick: Ukip source says they're picking candidate for Stoke Central tonight. Leader Paul Nuttall IS in the running, I'm told

UKIP 3.35 on Betfair, will surely come in if they pick Nuttall?
Tories 12.5 looks value too, or does someone know they're not even going to try?

What possible reason is there to vote UKIP after today's speech?

rottenborough

Paul Mason ‏@paulmasonnews 2m2 minutes ago
(10/10) Brits: get ready to Rise Like Lions - if May loses on the final Brexit terms in the Commons she must go. End of.

She will. Go to the country that is and win a 200 seat majority against a Labour party led by Corbyn, Abbott, Seamus and Mason.

Scott_P

Indyref2 "undoubtedly closer", as is the heat death of the Universe.

Which will happen first?

williamglenn

RobD said:

I thought there was a whole montage of videos showing leave campaigners saying that it would mean leaving the single market.

They changed their tune as soon as the campaign started and they realised that the argument wouldn't stand up to the charge of being worse than membership because we would have no/little say. In the preceding period it was a very common refrain that being in the single market didn't require any of the political apparatus, just look at Norway, etc.

Sandpit

Scott_P said:

MarqueeMark said:

How are the Remoaners today? Wanna be sedated? Or accusing the Leavers of a dancing a Blitzkrieg Bop?

This guy seems happy enough

tps://twitter.com/edwardineurope/status/821128582504337408

Mr Hannan is indeed a happy man this evening
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/821399550900523008

John_M

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

MarqueeMark said:

How are the Remoaners today? Wanna be sedated? Or accusing the Leavers of a dancing a Blitzkrieg Bop?

This guy seems happy enough

https://twitter.com/edwardineurope/status/821128582504337408

I thought there was a whole montage of videos showing leave campaigners saying that it would mean leaving the single market.

One of the key tactical victories Craig Oliver claimed was to force Gove to admit that the UK would exit the SM. Osborne monstered him. This was on the 8th May.

Scott_P

@DPJHodges: BBC: "Nicola Sturgeon says an #indyref2 is "undoubtedly" closer". Sturgeon isn't fooling anyone. She's bottling it. May's called her bluff.

RobD

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

I thought there was a whole montage of videos showing leave campaigners saying that it would mean leaving the single market.

They changed their tune as soon as the campaign started and they realised that the argument wouldn't stand up to the charge of being worse than membership because we would have no/little say. In the preceding period it was a very common refrain being in the single market didn't require any of the political apparatus, just look at Norway, etc.

Ah, but during the campaign (when most were paying attention) it was quite clear that a vote to leave would mean leaving the single market?

DavidL

SimonStClare said:

CarlottaVance said:

Can't image why Danny '5 million unemployed' Blanchflower wasn't included in the twitterfest:

https://order-order.com/2017/01/17/david-blanchflower-does-it-again/

Danny Blanchflower must be up for the Lady Bracknell award for poor prediction, these outbursts by him are beginning to look like carelessness...

Was that Blanchflower-v-Blanchflower case linked to a day or so again which said that the woman could not commit adultery in a gay relationship him? I thought with the reference to Dartmouth it must be.

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: BBC: "Nicola Sturgeon says an #indyref2 is "undoubtedly" closer". Sturgeon isn't fooling anyone. She's bottling it. May's called her bluff.

Doesn't it depend how the Scottish people react to Brexit over the next few months/years? If it becomes clear that the settled will has changed and there is a majority for Sindy, then there'll be another go.

John_M

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: BBC: "Nicola Sturgeon says an #indyref2 is "undoubtedly" closer". Sturgeon isn't fooling anyone. She's bottling it. May's called her bluff.

I think we should give Scotland Indyref 2 AND have a GE in May.

CarlottaVance

@NicolaSturgeon: Scottish Parliament has just voted - by a clear majority - for Scotland's place in the single market to be protected.

Is that the 'single market' that accounts for 15% of Scotland's trade, or the one that accounts for 64%?

Just asking......

williamglenn

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

I thought there was a whole montage of videos showing leave campaigners saying that it would mean leaving the single market.

They changed their tune as soon as the campaign started and they realised that the argument wouldn't stand up to the charge of being worse than membership because we would have no/little say. In the preceding period it was a very common refrain being in the single market didn't require any of the political apparatus, just look at Norway, etc.

Ah, but during the campaign (when most were paying attention) it was quite clear that a vote to leave would mean leaving the single market?

I think Dominic Cummings is right to say that most people, whether listening or making the arguments, don't really understand what it means so it's probably academic, but I think it's fair to say that the message had seeped into the general consciousness that the 'good' bits of the EU were easily separable from the 'bad' bits.

logical_song

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

weejonnie

glw said:

DavidL said:

There is every difference in the world between passing on hard information of an imminent attack (which we would of course do)

We've done that even with Russia.

But Stalin refused to believe it - how many millions died because of his self-held opinion?

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

SimonStClare said:

CarlottaVance said:

Can't image why Danny '5 million unemployed' Blanchflower wasn't included in the twitterfest:

https://order-order.com/2017/01/17/david-blanchflower-does-it-again/

Danny Blanchflower must be up for the Lady Bracknell award for poor prediction, these outbursts by him are beginning to look like carelessness...

Was that Blanchflower-v-Blanchflower case linked to a day or so again which said that the woman could not commit adultery in a gay relationship him? I thought with the reference to Dartmouth it must be.

Yep....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blanchflower_v._Blanchflower

rottenborough

nunu said:

dr_spyn said:

What happened to Labour's reaction? Have they all become Trappists?

Problem for Corbyn he agrees with it all but his party don't.

No he doesn't. He doesn't agree with ending free movement. He wants it expanded to allow anyone from anywhere in the world to be able to move here.

RobD

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

I thought there was a whole montage of videos showing leave campaigners saying that it would mean leaving the single market.

They changed their tune as soon as the campaign started and they realised that the argument wouldn't stand up to the charge of being worse than membership because we would have no/little say. In the preceding period it was a very common refrain being in the single market didn't require any of the political apparatus, just look at Norway, etc.

Ah, but during the campaign (when most were paying attention) it was quite clear that a vote to leave would mean leaving the single market?

I think Dominic Cummings is right to say that most people, whether listening or making the arguments, don't really understand what it means so it's probably academic, but I think it's fair to say that the message had seeped into the general consciousness that the 'good' bits of the EU were easily separable from the 'bad' bits.

I'll take that as a yes

DavidL

CarlottaVance said:

@NicolaSturgeon: Scottish Parliament has just voted - by a clear majority - for Scotland's place in the single market to be protected.

Is that the 'single market' that accounts for 15% of Scotland's trade, or the one that accounts for 64%?

Just asking......

Really, this argument makes the infamous and dishonest White Paper's views on oil revenues look really, really solid. It is nothing short of a joke.

Alanbrooke

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@MichaelLCrick: Ukip source says they're picking candidate for Stoke Central tonight. Leader Paul Nuttall IS in the running, I'm told

UKIP 3.35 on Betfair, will surely come in if they pick Nuttall?
Tories 12.5 looks value too, or does someone know they're not even going to try?

What possible reason is there to vote UKIP after today's speech?

You can kill off the Labour Party

DavidL

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

.

.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

Things could go wrong. Only an idiot would claim otherwise.

rkrkrk

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: BBC: "Nicola Sturgeon says an #indyref2 is "undoubtedly" closer". Sturgeon isn't fooling anyone. She's bottling it. May's called her bluff.

Doesn't it depend how the Scottish people react to Brexit over the next few months/years? If it becomes clear that the settled will has changed and there is a majority for Sindy, then there'll be another go.

Exactly. Plus she can pretend that she is giving May a fair chance to protect Scottish interests in the negotiations. And if brexit turns out badly... It will be easy to blame it all in Westminster.

surbiton

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

You don't mean "darkies" will be picking fruit in Lincolnshire, surely ?

DavidL

rkrkrk said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: BBC: "Nicola Sturgeon says an #indyref2 is "undoubtedly" closer". Sturgeon isn't fooling anyone. She's bottling it. May's called her bluff.

Doesn't it depend how the Scottish people react to Brexit over the next few months/years? If it becomes clear that the settled will has changed and there is a majority for Sindy, then there'll be another go.

Exactly. Plus she can pretend that she is giving May a fair chance to protect Scottish interests in the negotiations. And if brexit turns out badly... It will be easy to blame it all in Westminster.

That's a much more likely line than getting her knickers in a twist about membership of the European Single Market. And Nicola is a smart political operator. It makes perfect sense for her to play the waiting game.

RobD

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

You don't mean "darkies" will be picking fruit in Lincolnshire, surely ?

Under current arrangements, no, since such positions are filled by EU migrants. If there is a work permit scheme after Brexit with an agricultural component, then maybe.

rkrkrk

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

@IanDunt: Security cooperation is a core component of UK Brexit strategy, but think what that entails: Give us what we want or we stop helping.

@IanDunt: As in the EU citizens case, it's worth imagining what happens if they call our bluff. We get intelligence of an impending attack And what?

@IanDunt: We do nothing and tell no-one? Morally unthinkable. But then the government keeps asking us to consider the morally unthinkable.

That really is simplistic nonsense. There is every difference in the world between passing on hard information of an imminent attack (which we would of course do) and having detailed day to day co-operation which passes on a great deal of material not obviously of use on its own but which allows other countries to join the dots when added to what they already have. No one else in the EU has made anything like the investment we have in GCHQ and no one else has the US material that we have to add to it. If the EU thinks it can do without it or continues to angst about whether it is compatible with the ECHR as adopted into the EU treaties that is a matter for them but I suspect those who are at risk may have a view that differs from some of the legalists.

Presumably cooperation is a two way street and we benefit from their information also. Perhaps not as much.

But still-hunt if it's a question of anti-terrorism wouldn't public will be pretty unsympathetic to the idea that we have reduced cooperation as a bargaining tactic?

chestnut

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

You don't mean "darkies" will be picking fruit in Lincolnshire, surely ?

You seem to imply that no one with a brown face could possibly be European. Yet again.

Sunil_Prasannan

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF said:

Tim (F) has an enviable position compared with Nicola -

Her options are to call a referendum to leave a big single market to retain a small one whilst ditching the pound for the Euro or scuttle away to the shadows grumbling.

The written statement rather than the tour of the news studios suggests she's already picked the latter.

His unenviable position is being an utter cock.

Farron makes Ed Miliband look electable

DavidL

rkrkrk said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

@IanDunt: Security cooperation is a core component of UK Brexit strategy, but think what that entails: Give us what we want or we stop helping.

@IanDunt: As in the EU citizens case, it's worth imagining what happens if they call our bluff. We get intelligence of an impending attack And what?

@IanDunt: We do nothing and tell no-one? Morally unthinkable. But then the government keeps asking us to consider the morally unthinkable.

That really is simplistic nonsense. There is every difference in the world between passing on hard information of an imminent attack (which we would of course do) and having detailed day to day co-operation which passes on a great deal of material not obviously of use on its own but which allows other countries to join the dots when added to what they already have. No one else in the EU has made anything like the investment we have in GCHQ and no one else has the US material that we have to add to it. If the EU thinks it can do without it or continues to angst about whether it is compatible with the ECHR as adopted into the EU treaties that is a matter for them but I suspect those who are at risk may have a view that differs from some of the legalists.

Presumably cooperation is a two way street and we benefit from their information also. Perhaps not as much.

But still-hunt if it's a question of anti-terrorism wouldn't public will be pretty unsympathetic to the idea that we have reduced cooperation as a bargaining tactic?

There are undoubtedly mutual interests in this. And May will ostentatiously hold out the hand of friendship and co-operation in this field. I think the EU will take it. Eventually.

Fenster

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF said:

Tim (F) has an enviable position compared with Nicola -

Her options are to call a referendum to leave a big single market to retain a small one whilst ditching the pound for the Euro or scuttle away to the shadows grumbling.

The written statement rather than the tour of the news studios suggests she's already picked the latter.

His unenviable position is being an utter cock.

Farron makes Ed Miliband seem electable

I think Norman Lamb is one of the best MPs in the business. I would've picked him over Farron. I think Farron is a good campaigner but not a leader. He looks like Owen Jones's older brother.

Sunil_Prasannan

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

You don't mean "darkies" will be picking fruit in Lincolnshire, surely ?

RACIST REMAINER!!!

AlastairMeeks

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

You don't mean "darkies" will be picking fruit in Lincolnshire, surely ?

The current favoured Leave position, as far as I can ascertain that they have one, is that the fruit is going to pick itself.