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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 66/1 long-shot bet for the 2020 White House race: Democrati
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 66/1 long-shot bet for the 2020 White House race: Democratic Senator Kamala Harris from California
With Trump’s inauguration taking place on Friday there’s been a flurry of betting activity on the newly elected Senator from California, Kamala Harris, for the next White House Race in 2020. This followed a lot of coverage of her part in fighting against Trump’s nominee for attorney general, Sen. Jeff Sessions.
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Try Tulsi Gabbard instead, think she's about 100/1
How long before someone asks to see her birth certificate?
FPT I thought Mays speech - what I saw of it at least - struck the correct tone. It is not what I want and I have my extreme doubts that it will work, but I've been of the view for the past few months that hard Brexit has to happen. People voted for this and they have to experience the consequences of it. Brexit lite or leave in name only would suit me better, but politically it would only feed the UKIP resentment machine. Certainly I am relieved that we have Theresa May at the helm and not Leadsom or Boris Johnson.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/democrats-defeat-trump-president-2020
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris
Thousands of people are faking living in Ireland to get family members into the UK, a BBC investigation has revealed.
The scam involves UK nationals who want to bring in close relatives from outside the European Economic Area.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38597384
At the moment Betfair is showing 2.22/2.6 lay on Trump leaving before end of 1st term!
Every career move I've made here, and I'm currently doing a job that the Japanese government really wants people to do (not least advising a Japanese government committee), has involved some kind of trick to get around the spirit of the immigration rules, which never thought I was the kind of person qualified for their imagination of what I was doing.
Right now, their market "Next President"
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28009878/market?marketId=1.128151441
Says in the rules that it is a market on the result of the 2020 Presidential election.
Two scenarios in which the winner of the 2020 election isn't the next president, one is that Trump wins and carries on, the other is that Trump is replaced (presumably by Pence) before 2020. DYOR before betting!
http://copelandconservatives.com
Better than that might be on Hamon and Montebourg that David tipped last night. Still both available at 150/1 on Betfair, but the latest poll shows they both have a decent chance of winning the first round of the socialist primary:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/821511628130762752
However, there's a big difference between finding loopholes and falsifying documents. The subjects of this investigation are clearly fraudsters.
May's speech tried to make a virtue out of political necessity, but she's whistling in the wilderness. The EU27 collectively are 10 times more powerful than the UK, so I wouldn't expect the relationship post-Brexit to be any better than that currently between the EU27 and Russia.
Less good trading relations, undoubtedly. A war and sanctions seems pushing it.
(It's also worth pointing out Russia is far more powerful than the EU, another level on which your analogy fails.)
We already do work in Ireland. We'll start planning a Dublin office today.
Business hates uncertainty, and so knowing it will be a hard Brexit at least allows for planning.
However bad Brexit gets, somehow I don't quite see that happening.
The question is whether the ardently Europhile negotiators under Barnier and backed by Verhofstadt will see that, or whether the governments will force them to see it. This could be very tricky all around and end up doing terrible damage if not handled correctly.
That's why in a way it's reassuring that May, who while not imaginative or flexible is at least also not prone to panic or impulse is in charge, rather than somebody reckless like Cameron. I would have preferred Hammond with May as Chancellor, but it's easy to imagine worse fates than we have (Boris...).
Of course, things will brighten considerably all around if that lunatic Juncker is sacked so the grownups can take direct charge. However that doesn't seem likely right now.
IMO that is a very misleading definition of next President - not in keeping with how they do 'next party leader' ...
Laying Trump to go in 2017 at around 9 seems value to me.
With that, I am off to work. Have a good morning.
https://twitter.com/joannaivars/status/821626076816437248
Basically Betfair will settle the "Next President" market the day after the next Presidential election. As you say, completely different from how they'd settle "Next Prime Minister" here. Don't use the "Next President" market to back Trump resigning or being impeached.
Had she gone for the single market as a priority and then tried to negotiate opt-outs like free movement and much reduced contributions, a WTO ending would have been much more likely.
Hamon winning in France seems very remote, but Ladbrokes have 50/1 on a Fillon/Hamon final two which seems reasonable.
Well do it quickly. My next door neigbour in France is from Ireland and she says property is going up fast.
Yesterday was the beginning of a complete disaster for the UK. There is now no redemption. We have just fucked ourselves.
Secondly, it’s tactically smart. The Prime Minister is about to enter the toughest and most complex set of negotiations this country has had to undertake in over 70 years. She can’t do that on the back foot. She needed to offer a clear vision, one which strikes a deliberately independent pose, to anchor the British position in a way which avoids ambiguity or hostages to fortune. I think she largely succeeded.
That’s why I can’t feign the outrage I’ve seen expressed today about our departure from the single market. Of course I think it’s the wrong choice. And yes, I think Vote Leave was deliberately disingenuous in the referendum campaign in eliding single market membership/access. It’s also quite possible that a referendum specifically on membership of the single market might have produced a different result.
But we are where we are. I think it’s at the very least arguable that Theresa May’s decision to choose a swift exit may prove less economically harmful than protracted fudge-and-mudge.
http://stephentall.org/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-hard-brexit-politically-and-tactically-smart/
Like a couple of pence on beer and fags it will mildly impoverish people and they won't really notice.
Affected businesses, meanwhile, moreso.
In contrast Clinton, GW Bush, Carter and Reagan all served as governors. If I was looking for a long shot I would be looking at governors of swing states, probably female, 20 years younger than Hillary or Trump.
@BBCNormanS: Transitional arrangements to implement Brexti deal will be "a year or two" says David Davis @BBCr4today
So are we prepared to walk away with no deal, or not?
Long odds, Mr. Smithson. But they've come off before...
I think we are both relying on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States_by_other_offices_held
which is an interesting page, not least because it points out that Trump is the very first US President not to have held any of the offices listed before being elected.
Perhaps also a sign of an early election. Having that vote with a 100 seat majority would be a better prospect than a wafer thin majority.
Such a breath of fresh air after the way Cameron got it so wrong.
https://mobile.twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/821501682920128514
As long as NI has a unionist majority it will not be leaving the UK
1. Is from California or New York
2. Smells of identity politics
3. Looks 'other' to middle America
4. Looks anti business, anti gun rights or anti 'confidence' that America is great - no hand wringing apologists
5. Won't campaign hard in marginal states and spend time in Flyover country.
A left liberal Californian black/Indian woman may tick all the Dem boxes - but would pretty much guarantee a Trump re-election. They face the same dilemma as Labour in the UK - ideological purity or victory?
That's partly because I think the idea that we're going to put a bow on Brexit by March '19 is wildly optimistic. Who would want to go into a GE20 campaign with EU27 negotiations as background?
Secondly, May is even more vulnerable than Cameron was with such a tiny majority and a fair few disgruntled Cameroons on the backbenches.
Thirdly, the economy is as good as it's going to get for the next few years.
Finally, it's a chance to kick Labour while it's down, without giving the LDs much time to stage a revival (they're undoubtedly going to have one, as the only Bremain mainstream party).
Not that I would read too much into that. We still have a chronic trade deficit which leaving the EU is not going to fix and the fall in Sterling was welcome. Personally, as SO has pointed out this morning, I think that business prefers certainty even if it is not optimal against uncertainty. There had been a feeling of drift, dithering and fantasy about the UK position and for good or ill it has been dispersed.
May set out a clear position, it is a position largely within our own control and not particularly dependent on the views of others. She has defused some of the threats against us and thus improved our chances of getting what we want in terms of access. It was a good first step but there are many more steps to take before we get to the conclusion.
Edited - another thought, perhaps the rump EU that's formed will be more attractive to the UK - not that we'll ever join that club again.
maybe a little time reflecting on why you are here would help. Farage didnt gain support because of his charming personality, he gained support because the Mandelson Campbell mantra of "ignore them they have nowhere else to go" was ultimately shown to be false,
They might have gone reluctantly but go they did.
Education sec pick, (another billionaire) says the gun free school zones should be eliminated and local authorities decide i,e, in Wyoming for defence against Grizzly Bears! Also thought there should no federal disability rights for disabled children.
It also seems that Rex Tillerson is not having a smooth ride as nominee for Sec of State. Even people opposed to him expected someone worldly sage. Instead he came across as largely ignorant of security issues, Lied about Exon ever lobbying against various dictators and human rights abusers etc. (for some reason he;d been let off having to swear an Oath over his testimony).
It seems even some Republican members of the committee are wavering.
Then there is Trumps nominee for Sec of Labour (another billionaire, this time fast food). Who has had poor time in the hearings and looks like he might withdraw. It increasingly looks like his billionaire picks are used to be surrounding be Yes men and not used to having their views challenged or having to justify themselves.
Had Hillary had won my thread on election night was going to be
'Hillary not only becomes the first woman President she becomes the first President to have had sexual relations with another President THAT WE KNOW OF'
I can dream...