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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Timing is everything. A review of Theresa May’s speech
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Timing is everything. A review of Theresa May’s speech
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Shadow cabinet MPs 'considering' voting against article 50
Several Labour MPs, representing areas that voted remain, are torn over the party’s reaction to Theresa May’s speech
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/19/shadow-cabinet-mps-considering-voting-against-article-50-labour-brexit-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn
Alastair, how do you know? Do we think May was personally able to have given this three months ago and decided not to?
The minuscule amount of trust the electorate have in politicians will be further reduced by what will be seen as the 650 elite voting against the 17+million
She too is an alumnus of Couldn't get in to Fen Poly so had to slum it at Cowley Tech.
"Discussions are now largely focussing on the divorce proceedings from the EU, as one would naturally expect.
But painting a picture of what a future independent UK will look like, and how it will use its powers, is an interesting one. And a very important one.
Given how the biggest concerns about Brexit are that we lose influence and we lose economic wealth and growth, I'd love to have a national conversation about this or - failing that - a similar visionary speech by May, as to just what HMG thinks we'll do on that.
I have my own ideas, but so far we have Global Britain and a promised industrial strategy. Of course, much of that will hinge off just what exactly the UK-EU relationship ends up at, but by no means all of it.
As far as I can tell HMG's current plans are to go hell for leather in striking trade deals left, right and centre, and promote UK trade globally, but linked to an industrial strategy that recognises our strategic strengths, and aligns our education and immigration policies to them. Without dropping our existing rights and worker protections.
I've seen a bit less on foreign policy, except snippets such as we will still be a strong partner on regional European security, promote free trade worldwide and something about "Empires of the mind" from Boris, which I assume is the UK proactively promoting its values worldwide.
A fair point to judge the success of this - or whether its on track to be just as/even more than successful as the old model - is probably in 10-15 years time, I'd say roundabout 2030. "
Meanwhile, Anthony wells, citing polling evidence concludes:
Britons think Theresa May's vision of Brexit would be good for the country and believe no deal is better than a bad one
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/18/public-back-brexit-plan-think-eu-will-nix-it/
Meanwhile, the mood at home is somewhat warm and balmy.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/822032747984289792/photo/1
I sense some annoyance all round that there will now be no pleading from the Uk to stay in the single market - perhaps some were looking forward to us prostrating ourselves and taking our medicine to stay in ?
Yes, some jobs will still be lost as a consequence of leaving the single market. But still more could be created from some targeted deregulation - for instance, scrapping bankers bonus caps and the AIFD.
I suspect the reason she doesn't want to do this is because (a) her focus has been elsewhere and she hasn't yet worked the detail of that, as she likes to do, and (b) the optics of being seen to make big statements on The City. Which is not really her brand.
But Hammond could do it.
A pity the EU won't give out the same instruction.
Ooops! I forgot - they are not elected officials and probably can't be sacked anyway.
I'm guessing the mood might well be icy in strong remain areas mind but I have no anecdotal experience of such places to draw on recently.
Without the UK, the EU budget would face a permanent funding gap.
We estimate that the ‘Brexit gap’ in the budget would amount to approximately €10 billion per year.
http://www.delorsinstitut.de/2015/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/BrexitEUBudget-HaasRubio-JDI-JDIB-Jan17.pdf
Valls to crash out of the running in Socialist Primary?
Valls, who has untl recently been favourite to progress through the Socialist Primary appears to be in serious trouble following the first two televised debates. Two polls in the past couple of days have put him on 26-28% compared with 30-40% before the debates.
As we head into the final debate this evening ahead of Sunday's first round vote, the latest poll has him neck and neck with Hamon, with Montebourg only 4% behind. It is not inconceivable, looking at those figures, that he might even fail to make the second round. Even if he does make it through to the final head to head, it does not look good for him as the projected polling forecasts for the final round have generally seen him adding only 12-13% to his first round polling. That is not going to be anywhere near enough to see him home on the second round if the 26 -28% forecast in the latest polls are correct.
If Valls WERE to fall at this hurdle, it would be of considerable benefit to Macron in the main Presidential election. Polls have shown he benefits considerably when Valls is not included.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Socialist_Party_presidential_primary,_2017
Loads of countries trade with the EU (far more than trade within the EU). By leaving the EU, the UK can negotiate a different set of tariffs (if not free trade) than we currently have to impose (and send most of the money raised to Brussels).
@DonaldTusk: We took note of PM May's warm, balanced words on European integration. Much closer to narrative of Churchill than President-elect Trump.
One (but not Mr Meeks obviously) could argue the EU (including Merkel) overplayed its hand by showing a strong stanceon a pre-negotiations position on what turned out to be a non issue.
Ignore the referendum result? Claim it was merely advisory and not implement BrExit?
I really do.
You remind me of Colonel Cathcart in Catch-22, always worrying about 'black eyes' and 'feathers in my cap'. As a liberal leaver, I have not (apparently) got the result I would have preferred. This is disappointing.
I was disappointed by 13 years of Labour government, the three-day week, the ERM, negative equity in the 1990s, the fact that, for some inexplicable reason, Michelle Pfeiffer never showed up naked on my doorstep and so on. Life is like that. I shall watch Mrs May's progress with great interest, while getting on with more interesting things in my own life.
'Of course, they wouldn't be so stupid as to vote to leave the EU!'
'Of course they wouldn't be so stupid as to leave the Single Market!
One by one, their working assumptions have been shredded, and while Britain is no doubt heading for tougher times, so is the EU, as that Institute Jaques Delors paper makes clear - after they've said farewell to us, they've got a heck of a row on budgets coming up.....
I promised no more comments about All Out War, but.
Boris as a person, a character and an inspirational politician came over very well from the book. Boris as a detail man came over badly. But that was pretty much known previously, right?
He is IMHO the heir presumptive to May if:
- Brexit goes well
- Brexit goes ok
- Brexit goes badly and people blame the EU for this (a strong liklihood that this will be where blame is apportioned, Leavers are not suddenly going to warm to Metropolitan Liberalism)
- The Tories lose any election in the next 10 years
That puts him a MUCH stronger position than he was before the ref.
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedUKPol/status/822069447003439104
*edit* illiteracy.
It's a position that still means that control over the outcome is entirely out of our hands.
"I was disappointed by 13 years of Labour government, the three-day week, the ERM, negative equity in the 1990s, the fact that, for some inexplicable reason, Michelle Pfeiffer never showed up naked on my doorstep and so on. Life is like that. I shall watch Mrs May's progress with great interest, while getting on with more interesting things in my own life."
An excellent view to take.
At midnight on June 23rd 2016, I conceded defeat to Remain. It felt slightly disappointing but that was all.
Despite the snowflakes' anguish, it hardly compares with real tragedy. Even Mr Meeks will hopefully find a glad, confident morning again.
What we face is the UK economy being damaged by political decisions to limit migration - that will damage business and reduce growth.
The problems we face in this country such as in the NHS and Social Care are not caused by overseas workers they are caused by an ever-ageing "baby-boomer" population draining funds from these services.
Foreign workers have helped rebuild the UK economy since the financial crash, they helped create economic growth and increase wealth - they are not and have never been the problem - they should have been the solution.
The fault for that wealth not finding its way down to the "JAMS" lies with the Government that has squandered all the positives of a relatively prosperous economy by targeting tax cuts and pension changes on the same home-owning baby-boomers who benefited from the property boom and become used to the benefits that their inflated influence has brought them.
Edit. I meant to add that I think the same can be said of Damien Green. He was one of the strongest ideological Remain campaigners but has been gracious in his acceptance of the result and his desire to make it work.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/angela-rayner-labour-tony-blair_uk_587f8e70e4b005cc588b7224
Isn't it time these histrionics stopped ?
We may be seeing the high point of Macron, but he has established himself. I wonder if the PS will re-assert at least some dominance in the post-primary peak (as FIllon did).
They are still not happy with it, but largely recognise we need to get on with it.
Apart from a couple of speeches I see little evidence he's done that yet.
We were lucky he didn't become PM. And I expect he realises so too.
""He's not from round here". That was how many Potteries people greeted the news that Tristram Hunt had landed in Stoke-on-Trent Central with the aid of the proverbial parachute, during the run-up to the 2010 general election.
And by way of an epitaph, that was also the word on the streets on Friday the Thirteenth when he announced his decision to resign his seat in favour of his "dream job" as Director of London's Victoria and Albert Museum".
He is not from round here, says it all.
Valls = centre-left
Montebourg = old left
Hamon = new left
1.) Worst case scenario planning. In particular with respect to City institutions, the lack of guidance has positively forced management teams down the route of planning for the worst case loss of membership of the single market/customs union scenario, and how they mitigate the impact. Most have found that their own internal experts' forecast of Armageddon to be overstated. Their plans and views are now based on reason, not emotion.
2.) Emotional acceptance. The vacuum of policy/direction from the government has allowed many people to come to terms with where we are, and are going as a country. In a peculiar way, the more die hard Remainers have acted as emotional outriders for this - by constantly delivering the message of extreme doom, they've prepared people to be pleasantly surprised for an outcome that is unlikely anywhere near as disastrous.
As a consequence, Mrs May's speech, delivered now, gets a far more positive reception than it would three months ago, when it would be attacked as extreme from most if not all sides. The Prime Minister's tendency to Merkel can be frustrating, but in this case I think has been decidedly to her advantage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017