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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So who won the week’s battles over LAB and the NHS, Lynton
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So who won the week’s battles over LAB and the NHS, Lynton Crosby and the Tories and plain cigarette packaging
Just 18% tell YouGov that it is acceptable for Crosby to be advising Tories while working for commercial clients
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What we won't know Tim is how much salience there is in these issues
Most people in the real world don't give a stuff about cigarette packets. I am a non smoker and if people want to smoke, I don't have a problem with it as long as they don't do it in my presence. Most non-smokers take the same view.
It's the economy stupid! Barring an international incident, it will be the economy which determines the next election and if the people still believe Gordon Brown was to blame for the mess, the recession and the cutbacks the government has had to enforce, people like you can whistle in the wind.
Rod Crosby is a far more neutral and respected observer and I noted with great interest his predictions yesterday. You of course never make specific predictions about election results, just make snide attacks on others who are brave enough to.
YouGov
Leaders:well/badly{
DC: -18 (+6)
EdM: -35(0)
NC: -51(+2)
Coalition:-33(+4)
Labour has pretty much given up on UKIP and Tory voters, to focus instead on 2010 LDs.
My guess is that Labour is talking to a more receptive audience. But neither strategy is remotely healthy. They underline the dysfunctionality of FPTP.
Do you think standards in the NHS have got
better or worse under the Conservative/Liberal
Democrat coalition?
Better:12
Same:33
Worse:47
And do you think standards in the NHS got
better or worse under the last Labour government
Better:22
Same25
Worse:43
This week the Keogh report into 14 NHS hospital
trusts across the country with higher than
normal death rates was published, following the
emergence of the Stafford NHS scandal earlier
this year. The report found some serious
failings and eleven trusts were placed in special
measures.
From what you have seen or heard, do you think
the last Labour government did or did not
deliberately cover up failings at NHS hospitals?
Did cover them up - the last government knew
about failing hospitals, but covered them up for
political reasons: 41
Did not cover them up - when the last government
encountered failings it did try to put things right, but
generally failed to do so: 22
Did not cover them up – when the last government
encountered failings it did try to put things right and
generally succeeded: 9
DK: 28
Who do you think is most to blame for the
failings in the NHS uncovered by the Keogh
report not being found earlier?
Hospital management: 43
Last Labour government: 19
Civil servants at DoH:15
Hospital doctors and healthcare staff: 4
Someone else:1
DK: 18
NB:Labour & LD VI blame hospital management most
From the high number of plague-on-both houses, I would tentatively suggest that is a modest plus for the blues (depending on what previous polling has found).
I believe that the economy is critical to the fortunes of all 3 parties in the coming election. The current poll leads for Labour remain soft, Miliband is clearly a liability but it could well be that ex-LDs propel him to the top job.
Some economists believe GDP may have expanded by 0.7pc or 0.8pc – which would be the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2007, before the recession struck.
Evidence that the recovery is gathering momentum prompted Sir Mike Rake, president of the CBI, to say in an interview with The Sunday Telegraph that “we are beginning to see the green shoots of recovery generally”. The Chancellor has been careful to avoid the phrase, though he said last week that the UK was moving “from rescue to recovery”.
Sir Mike warned, however, of a tough road ahead. “I think it’s absolutely clear that we’ve been bouncing along the bottom,” he said. “I think we’re gently beginning to recover, in some parts of the country more than others.”
Goldman Sachs, which compiles a “tracking estimate” of Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, has calculated that the economy grew 0.64pc in the three months to June – in line with the consensus of 0.6pc.
Investec is forecasting a 0.7pc rise, and Fathom Consulting a 0.8pc growth. The Bank of England pencilled in 0.6pc in May.
All four sectors of the economy are forecast to be growing – services, industrial production, construction and agriculture – for the first time since the third quarter of 2010.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10192732/Lift-for-Osborne-as-economic-growth-accelerates.html
I think Mike's highlight of leaders approval rating is a good clue to underlying sentiment.
Kit Malthouse, the deputy Mayor of London, said the intention was to create a “global brand” to draw investment into science and to ensure that advances are better exploited to boost the economy.
He said too often other countries reaped the benefits of British discoveries because we lack the infrastructure and commercial investment for ideas to succeed.
The funding bid – due on Thursday – will propose a new district, based around Euston Road near world-leading centres such as University College Hospital and the Wellcome Trust, and the Francis Crick Institute, a medical research centre under construction.
The idea is similar to that of “Tech City” in east London, where more than 15,000 new companies registered last year.Mr Malthouse told The Sunday Telegraph: “Britain suffers a drain when it comes to science. We make discoveries but often scientists need to go abroad to expand or get the capital to exploit the potential.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10192700/Londons-Medical-City-to-seal-golden-triangle-of-UK-research-centres.html
I struggle to see how a government can attract a protest vote two months after it is formed and before it has made any decisions - it never seems to have happened before. This is the really salient point about Labour's opinion poll jump in the summer of 2010. Remember, too, that this was at a time when the Coalition itself was enjoying pretty high approval ratings and the Tories were frequently ahead of Labour. Because of FPTP Labour only needs 35% or so to be the largest party after the next GE.
I do agree that colaitions are different, though, and that as a result it is hard to jump to conclusions. So my comments obviously come with that caveat; as should those which state Labour should be miles ahead.
All opinion polls are pretty meaningless at any stage, but they are just about all we have to go on.
It will be fascinating to see the depth of dislike of all the three parties and if these voters actually come out to vote. I'd hate any party to get into power with a ludicrously small proportion of the electorate.
Reporters overheard Keogh apologising to Andy Burnham about the way Keogh’s report had been used as an excuse to attack AB & Labour’s record on the NHS.
I do not think Huttons advice "Ignore the hype: Will be taken on here.
However on Money Week you can read about the The End of Britain.
Labour working with MRSA to reduce waiting lists..
The tobacco stuff -latest wizz bang scheme to halt sales of the demon weed is put on the back burner and its all Hunt's fault bullshit for caving in - don't advertising and sponsorship bans, high duties, health warnings on packets, school PSHE discussions, and fines for lighting up work?
Liam Byrne was not right as all parties support HS2 spending billions.
They all must be mad, that money should be directed to house construction, and a 3rd runway at Heathrow.
Do you still have the links to the NHS polling that showed the Tories rating on the NHS that was neck and neck with Labour? I thought that was very surprising but can't find the links again.
"Reporters overheard Keogh apologising to Andy Burnham about the way Keogh’s report had been used as an excuse to attack AB & Labour’s record on the NHS."
Labour's attacks on Crosby and the Tory dirty tricks department seem to be starting to bear fruit. The Tories with their history have to be ultra careful about not being the 'nasty party' again.
Cameron: +80
Miliband: +25
Clegg: +32
Ah! But, but, but, it's 2010 Lib Dems that will decide it:
Cameron: -30
Miliband: -32
"If ,as sugested on here and elsewhere, Crosby's strategy is damaging the Conservatives, one does have to wonder why Labour are in panic mode to get rid of him."
Rather an odd reading of things. Attacking him and drawing attention to him is a completely different thing from trying to get rid of him. He's clearly very good at honing the Tory message but rather like Campbell (but much more so) he has the possibility to be turned into a very ugly Svengali which is sure to rub off on Cameron who at present is reasonably whiter than white
@Tim "Unpopular measures weren't front loaded, Osborne screeched a lot but deficit reduction has been kicked beyond the next election.
And the policy is now no longer rebalancing the economy it's devaluation, inflation and a housing bubble."
Incorrect - the perception fuelled by the Labour and the media is of cuts, cuts and more cuts - where they get it wrong is to assume the public are horrified by the notion that welfare cuts are always inevitably unpopular. It has helped Labour garner the protest vote common against the governing party but it by no means guarantees they will keep it in the absence of any alternative strategy beyond smear.
" Two words. Damian McBride......"
Do you think Labour were ever regarded as the 'Nasty Party' in the way the Tories were in '97?
I don't. Nothing like.
It took 18 years for the Tories to build up that reputation and it's still there (though nothing like it was). Labour teetered on the brink of being thought incompetent but never nasty.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23393856
I wonder who gave the ST the memo.
If anyone can show that a Get Lynton strategy will shift a single vote - I'll be astonished. And similarly, the Tories aren't going to sack him as he's clearly scaring the crap out of Labour right now :^ )
So all in all, its a bit of a win-win for the Tories.
Let us have some policies please, not lame attacks on someone most of the population have never heard of or even want to..bet Crosby is a hot topic down at the local this lunchtime. Test match, golf, Wayne Rooney, the weather..see what I mean lads.
http://tinyurl.com/m54omx3
"Really worrying how NHS managers, whether hospital or "outside" have been demonised. Why would any bright young person go into such an occupation when they are going to be routinely vilified?"
I just think they were the only people left.
Everyone except some Tories with an agenda remembered that Labour (and Brown in particular) moved heaven and earth to make the NHS better and to throw money at it. To expect people now to blame them for failings in a limited number of hospitals would be ridiculous.
As it had to be somebodies fault and no one knows what these suits do......best to blame them.
Lee wins The Open
Chris triumphs in Le Tour
Joe knocks a Lords double ton
Mike says a kind word of the Coalition
Why would the Tories lurch to the right? If they want to win votes - they'll focus on the issues that most of the population are most concerned about/Tories can shift votes in their favour. Mr Crosby seems to have a good idea of what these are.
I'm just waiting for someone to mention GE2005 again as evidence that Crosby is Crap whilst forgetting that Back Boris was a winner.
When all is said and done, he, Southam Observer, Mike Smithson, Nick Palmer and others believe there will be no substantial swing-back to the Tories in May 2015. Yesterday Mike quoted 2003 to 2005 as a case in point.
I strongly demur. Asssuming the economic recovery gathers pace, there is every prospect of such a swing taking place.
Srutinising the psephological entrails of 2010 LibDem subsamples is a joyous pursuit, but I'll settle for the overall headline VI. By the way, don't the polls adjust for the sizeable number of respondents who misremember how they voted at the last election! Even allowing for that, in today's partisan de-aligned electorate, a Lab-Con swing is perfectly possible.
That said, we can note a few consistent trends.
1. Cameron's rating is better than it was. Miliband's isn't.
2. People are cautiously tending to cheer up about the economy.
3. Despite 1 and 2, Labour's poll rating remains where it's been for a long time, the high 30s - in fact slightly higher than when UKIP was surging. The Tories have slightly recovered.
4. The attack on Labour over the NHS had no significant impact on party preference over the issue.
The Labour rating isn't fragile or frothy or swinging noticeably or typical of mid-term protest voters - it is, principally, people who liked the last government plus 2010 left-wing LibDems. These groups are not greatly swayed by anything - PM rating, the economy, whatever. They just don't like a right-wing government and they plan to vote it out.
What can the Conservatives do about it? The realistic choices are "mobilise the vote and push UKLIP way down" or "tack sharply to the middle so 2010 LibDems think it's not such a bad government". They're clearly going for the first. But it's hard to see them getting most votes that way, and if they don't there will be a Labour majority.
"Labour (and Brown in particular) moved heaven and earth to make the NHS better and to throw money at it"
Even you in the advertising industry must know that "throwing money" at something is no guarantee of quality improvement. Just see what has happened to our education standards when the same policy was enacted.
In fact lean projects often have better outcomes as more direct thought is put into the project initially and the cost/benefit analysis is more realistic.
However even to get back to the 2010 result, the blues need to put on 7 or 8 points and to see the commies drop by a similar amount. That's a big ask.
“The deficit is down, unemployment is falling, crime is down, welfare is capped and Abu Qatada is back in Jordan.”, [said one Tory MP.]
The renewed optimism among his hitherto surly backbenchers allowed the prime minister to postpone the slaps and prizes of a parliamentary reshuffle. Those Tories not tied up in annoying Labour at the committee stage of the EU Referendum Bill strolled into the evening sunshine after a rousing end-of-term report from the boss to the 1922 committee and declared themselves well satisfied with his leadership.
“A spring in our step”; “We are in a good place”; “Of course it won’t last but I can’t recall a July when we left Westminster in such good spirits,” they said." http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/adamboulton/article1290044.ece
You may have missed the news from yesterday Nick that I've placed Broxtowe in the "JackW Dozen" for the 2015 GE - 12 seats to watch for the election.
Smiles innocently ....
http://www.scotsman.com/edinburgh-evening-news/health/scotland-committed-to-plain-cigarette-pack-plan-1-2999503
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-21954909
" Crosby’s main aim in the run-up to 2015 is to keep the focus on Labour. While the coalition took difficult decisions that were bound to be unpopular, the argument goes, Labour curled up into a ball to be as small a target as possible. Now that Cameron has had some successes, the Tories are being tasked with uncurling their opponents, preferably attaching a “Kick me” sign to the prickles of the spatchcocked hedgehog.
This is why last week Jeremy Hunt talked of Labour’s shame and disgrace when the Keogh report on the NHS came out, whereas weeks earlier Cameron took a statesmanlike view that all should learn lessons from the Mid Staffordshire report.
The prime minister seems happy in either mode, and enjoyed telling Miliband he would be a write-off until he sacked the men next to him — Andy Burnham, the shadow health secretary, and Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, both of whose form stretches back to the last Labour government..."
A few Labour Policies might stop the rout tho.
Scotland also led (along with Wales and the Channel Islands) on implementing the smoking ban New Labour later brought to England. Looks like it will be the same again.....
AFAIC, the only time they should be the same colour is at a funeral or if you're in waiting.
How goes Thursdays battle for the soul of Hersham. Is the Jacobite/Andrea axis working its magic ??
OA (Labour VI)
Did cover it up: 41 (13)
Did not cover it up - tried to fix & failed: 22 (36)
Did not cover it up - tried to fix & succeeded: 9 (24)
So the most widely held view among Labour supporters is that while the last Labour government did not set out to conceal NHS failings, their attempts at fixing them were unsuccessful.....just under a quarter of Labour supporters (and under a tenth of total) think Labour succeeded in fixing the NHS failings Keogh exposed.
If voters were personally doing really well it might help, but they're not - they've been taking real wage cuts for years and are just hanging on to jobs. News that GDP is up 2.1% or whatever by 2015 will leave the swing voters (yes, largely those left-wing LibDems) pretty cold.
Michael Deacon @MichaelPDeacon
"If you would just answer the question, Mr Cameron - have you ever had a conversation with your wife?"
This summer Labour cannot rest – or it may lose the battle. As the Tories break up on a hog-fuelled high, Labour is full of woe. Three years on, why is it still on the defensive?
...Of course, the flipside of this Tory cheer is Labour woe. They end the parliamentary season in a state of humid angst. Even those who dismiss the ICM poll as rogue know their lead is anaemic. With less than two years to go, Labour finds itself perennially on the defensive. This week it was Andy Burnham, called to account for his record as health secretary after the Tories wilfully distorted the Keogh report into those hospitals that had failed or worse. Last week it was Ed Miliband, browbeaten into proposing a change to Labour's union funding arrangements. In recent months, the leader has been pushed into making speeches on both immigration and welfare in order to head off attacks that, Labour feared, were beginning to bite.
...Part of this comes with the territory of opposition, a reactive business by definition. But part of it is blamed on Miliband himself. One figure close to the top reports that the leader "consults everyone but listens to no one", complaining of a strategic indecisiveness reminiscent of Gordon Brown: "It's just a state of constant frustration: no one knows how to get a decision made."
But the problem surely goes deeper than mere leadership style. It's that Labour still spends too much of its time dealing with aspects of its past – attempting to shake off a reputation as wasteful of the nation's money or a soft touch to newcomers and benefit recipients – that it should have dealt with long ago. Three years on, Miliband is still either defending or repudiating aspects of Labour's record in government. It's the price he pays for not having had a reckoning with the Labour legacy much earlier, publicly spelling out what aspects of the Blair-Brown inheritance he aimed to jettison and what he wanted to keep, honour and extend. Instead, each shift has come gradually, sometimes – as on welfare or immigration – as if dragged out of him under duress... http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/19/summer-labour-tories-hog-fuelled?CMP=twt_gu
Most voters still blame Labour for the mess. Most voters don't like the medicine but prefer Dr Cameron to Dr Miliband to administer it.
Will swing and differential voters opt for Dr Miliband ? .... No they don't want the economic sh*ts again.