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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic and historic day the world has changed and we

SystemSystem Posts: 11,006
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic and historic day the world has changed and we have yet to fully appreciate what the Trump presidency means

Copyright Helen Cochrane & Nicholas Leonard 2017

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    America First
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Rest of the world second.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Britain last.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    FPT:
    matt said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    matt said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Trump could well kill conservatism in many different ways.

    Apparently he's just like Regan though. Even though the way he loves Russia would have Regan spinning in his grave right now....

    @SeanT Obama is pretty popular in this country. Trump isn't.
    Gosh, Donald Regan references. That's a throwback.

    If you're planning to sneer, accurate sneering is helpful.
    Are you really having this reaction over a typo? LOL.

    EDIT: Also I'm not 'planning to sneer'. I don't sit there and plan my reactions to posts on PB 24 hours in advance.
    You refer to a wholly different person. That you are unaware of that is perhaps a comment on your limited knowledge. Which you display regularly.

    Oh do get over yourself. Besides it's fairly obvious who I was referring to. It's a typo. It happens.

    EDIT: Ironically, you're guilty of the sneering which you've sat here and accused others of.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    It really is time that Sky sacked Kay Burley, she is a complete moron.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,918
    Shortly one of Trump's staff is going to present him with a decision he has to make and he won't have a clue
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,249
    tlg86 said:

    It really is time that Sky sacked Kay Burley, she is a complete moron.

    Why is she anymore a moron that most of Sky's presenters
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited January 2017
    Trump's already getting to work:

    https://twitter.com/business/status/822514351588446209

    God help America.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    tlg86 said:

    It really is time that Sky sacked Kay Burley, she is a complete moron.

    Why is she anymore a moron that most of Sky's presenters
    In the last year they've sacked a load of their long standing presenters, including Mark Longhurst who I liked a lot, yet she survives. I reckon she must have dirt on someone quite senior.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,249
    tlg86 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    tlg86 said:

    It really is time that Sky sacked Kay Burley, she is a complete moron.

    Why is she anymore a moron that most of Sky's presenters
    In the last year they've sacked a load of their long standing presenters, including Mark Longhurst who I liked a lot, yet she survives. I reckon she must have dirt on someone quite senior.
    Never mind wait till Rupert takes control and makes it the UK version of Fox news.

    Can you just imagine the vapours of the left
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,249
    tlg86 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    tlg86 said:

    It really is time that Sky sacked Kay Burley, she is a complete moron.

    Why is she anymore a moron that most of Sky's presenters
    In the last year they've sacked a load of their long standing presenters, including Mark Longhurst who I liked a lot, yet she survives. I reckon she must have dirt on someone quite senior.
    He was sacked for a public row with Owen Jones. I did see it at the time and thought he may have problems
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    tlg86 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    tlg86 said:

    It really is time that Sky sacked Kay Burley, she is a complete moron.

    Why is she anymore a moron that most of Sky's presenters
    In the last year they've sacked a load of their long standing presenters, including Mark Longhurst who I liked a lot, yet she survives. I reckon she must have dirt on someone quite senior.
    Never mind wait till Rupert takes control and makes it the UK version of Fox news.

    Can you just imagine the vapours of the left
    Ofcom will probably get in the way of that: https://www.ofcom.org.uk/tv-radio-and-on-demand/broadcast-codes/legacy/text_srvcs/part_a/89248

    I actually think Sky News is okay. In some cases I actually prefer it to the BBC.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,249
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    tlg86 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    tlg86 said:

    It really is time that Sky sacked Kay Burley, she is a complete moron.

    Why is she anymore a moron that most of Sky's presenters
    In the last year they've sacked a load of their long standing presenters, including Mark Longhurst who I liked a lot, yet she survives. I reckon she must have dirt on someone quite senior.
    Never mind wait till Rupert takes control and makes it the UK version of Fox news.

    Can you just imagine the vapours of the left
    Ofcom will probably get in the way of that: https://www.ofcom.org.uk/tv-radio-and-on-demand/broadcast-codes/legacy/text_srvcs/part_a/89248

    I actually think Sky News is okay. In some cases I actually prefer it to the BBC.
    I understand they are unlikely to be able to prevent the take over due to the increased media competition with Netfliks etc
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    Telegraph gathers that Labour's internal polling in Copeland is dire and hints at Tory win.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/20/exclusive-labour-set-lose-copeland-by-election-partys-canvass/

  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    tlg86 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    tlg86 said:

    It really is time that Sky sacked Kay Burley, she is a complete moron.

    Why is she anymore a moron that most of Sky's presenters
    In the last year they've sacked a load of their long standing presenters, including Mark Longhurst who I liked a lot, yet she survives. I reckon she must have dirt on someone quite senior.
    Never mind wait till Rupert takes control and makes it the UK version of Fox news.

    Can you just imagine the vapours of the left
    Ofcom will probably get in the way of that: https://www.ofcom.org.uk/tv-radio-and-on-demand/broadcast-codes/legacy/text_srvcs/part_a/89248

    I actually think Sky News is okay. In some cases I actually prefer it to the BBC.
    I understand they are unlikely to be able to prevent the take over due to the increased media competition with Netfliks etc
    I wasn't talking about the takeover - I agree with you that it's unlikely they'll be able to prevent it. I was referring to the idea that Murdoch can turn Sky News into FOX.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    FFS - I hope those reports from Copeland are rubbish.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    dr_spyn said:

    Telegraph gathers that Labour's internal polling in Copeland is dire and hints at Tory win.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/20/exclusive-labour-set-lose-copeland-by-election-partys-canvass/

    It does more than hint: "Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties," apparently.

    I predicted a Tory majority - based on some rather crude back-of-an-envelope sums - of 3,500 back before Christmas. Probably out by a mile, but hey-ho.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,249
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    tlg86 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    tlg86 said:

    It really is time that Sky sacked Kay Burley, she is a complete moron.

    Why is she anymore a moron that most of Sky's presenters
    In the last year they've sacked a load of their long standing presenters, including Mark Longhurst who I liked a lot, yet she survives. I reckon she must have dirt on someone quite senior.
    Never mind wait till Rupert takes control and makes it the UK version of Fox news.

    Can you just imagine the vapours of the left
    Ofcom will probably get in the way of that: https://www.ofcom.org.uk/tv-radio-and-on-demand/broadcast-codes/legacy/text_srvcs/part_a/89248

    I actually think Sky News is okay. In some cases I actually prefer it to the BBC.
    I understand they are unlikely to be able to prevent the take over due to the increased media competition with Netfliks etc
    I wasn't talking about the takeover - I agree with you that it's unlikely they'll be able to prevent it. I was referring to the idea that Murdoch can turn Sky News into FOX.
    Sorry - yes I do agree that he would have problems with balance if he modelled it on Fox and my earlier statement was really a bit of a wind up
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    America First

    https://twitter.com/russelneiss/status/822510906475245571
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited January 2017
    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    Is it really credible that the Tories might win it? That would be a hell of a coup.

    It occurs to me that this is a terrible prospect, Labour might actually do something about Corbyn. Boris needs to say something very rude about Merkel ASAP.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    Black_Rook said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Telegraph gathers that Labour's internal polling in Copeland is dire and hints at Tory win.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/20/exclusive-labour-set-lose-copeland-by-election-partys-canvass/

    It does more than hint: "Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties," apparently.

    I predicted a Tory majority - based on some rather crude back-of-an-envelope sums - of 3,500 back before Christmas. Probably out by a mile, but hey-ho.
    "Early canvass returns from Stoke are understood to also show Labour’s support significantly down on 2015, though not nearly as many people have been consulted as Copeland."
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    'Not our candidate'.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    Watching the Piers Morgan interview with DJT I kinda get him a bit more.

    To be honest I'm not bothered by his business approach. I've done alright myself out of real estate and leverage.....obviously not in the manner of Trump, but I've always bought property in good areas and made them aesthetically pleasing....the Trump business model. Hardly rocket science mind.

    If Trump embraced renewables, and embraced multiculturalism....I. could take the rest....

  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Well, they are the current party in government and usually governing parties don't win a by-election. That said Corbyn is absolutely dreadful. But I'm not Conservative.

    @Big_G_NorthWales Ah, okay.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    Jamie Reed was an unpopular, discredited Blairite and undermined the leadership, opening the door for Conservative victory. The seat will be won back in the landslide to come, as voters in the General Election flock to the banner of socialism.

    Assuming that Corbyn survives as leader for long enough to fight the next GE, blame for the trouncing that follows will be pinned on the traitorous behaviour of the bulk of the Parliamentary Labour Party. The Far Left's failures are always the fault of malign external forces, never the product of its own inadequacies.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,249
    tlg86 said:

    FFS - I hope those reports from Copeland are rubbish.

    This has been a very important seven days with the Prime Minister providing two well received speeches on Brexit and Corbyn having no answer. Indeed the comparision between Theresa May as a Statesperson and Corbyn an irrelevance have absolutely been proven

    Labour in England are heading to mirror labour in Scotland. I would not be surprised to see labour lose Copeland quite badly but also possibly Stoke
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    edited January 2017
    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    Labour were umpteen points ahead in the polls in the late 90s but didn't win by elections.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    John_M said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    'Not our candidate'.
    That's actually something that they would say. Along with blaming Blairites, of course.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    The_Apocalypse said:

    John_M said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    'Not our candidate'.
    That's actually something that they would say. Along with blaming Blairites, of course.
    I'm like Will Graham in 'Red Dragon'. I have an uncanny ability to understand Corbynites; it's a gift - some would say, a curse ;).
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    tyson said:

    Watching the Piers Morgan interview with DJT I kinda get him a bit more.

    To be honest I'm not bothered by his business approach. I've done alright myself out of real estate and leverage.....obviously not in the manner of Trump, but I've always bought property in good areas and made them aesthetically pleasing....the Trump business model. Hardly rocket science mind.

    If Trump embraced renewables, and embraced multiculturalism....I. could take the rest....

    Trump's not a cultural conservative, and the office of the President is powerful but has real limits. I don't think he can do half as much harm as some fear, and if nothing else Trump ought to shake things up, which might produce positive effects after his Presidency if not during it.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    They are not a member of Momentum....haven't a beard......fake news......rigged system.....the Parliamentary Labour Party.....Tony Blair.......

    I've just had a beer with a Corbynite...they really are on the deluded side of delusional.....
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,918
    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    Labour were umpteen points ahead in the polls in the late 90s but didn't win by elections.
    Were there (m)any by-elections 1997-2000?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    Labour were umpteen points ahead in the polls in the late 90s but didn't win by elections.
    Were there (m)any by-elections 1997-2000?
    17 between 1997-2001. Only six between 2001-2005 though.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Black_Rook said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    Jamie Reed was an unpopular, discredited Blairite and undermined the leadership, opening the door for Conservative victory. The seat will be won back in the landslide to come, as voters in the General Election flock to the banner of socialism.

    Assuming that Corbyn survives as leader for long enough to fight the next GE, blame for the trouncing that follows will be pinned on the traitorous behaviour of the bulk of the Parliamentary Labour Party. The Far Left's failures are always the fault of malign external forces, never the product of its own inadequacies.
    If the Labour membership DOESN'T learn from the inevitable trouncing Corbyn will the party to in 2020, then there is no hope for Labour, none at all. In the words of Donald Trump, 'sad'.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    I've kept the Tories onside in both by-elections.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    tlg86 said:

    FFS - I hope those reports from Copeland are rubbish.

    As a left of centre voter I hope they are right!
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/822552643725914113
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    glw said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    Is it really credible that the Tories might win it? That would be a hell of a coup.

    It occurs to me that this is a terrible prospect, Labour might actually do something about Corbyn. Boris needs to say something very rude about Merkel ASAP.
    What would Labour do about Corbyn? What can it do? The majority of the membership are Far Left fanatics who love him to bits, and he's immovable with their support.

    That said, I think the most likely outcome is defeat for Labour in Copeland and a hold in Stoke Central. Stoke will be touted as evidence of Corbyn's ability to win; Copeland put down to local circumstances in a marginal constituency, and blamed on the bad behaviour of the outgoing MP. Corbyn will continue to plod on under such circumstances; indeed, with the bookies' odds being (I believe) slightly in favour of the Tories in Copeland, if Labour manages to hold that as well then Corbyn's supporters will claim that he is capable of outperforming the opinion polls and/or that the opinion polls are outright wrong, and he'll probably emerge stronger than before.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    Labour were umpteen points ahead in the polls in the late 90s but didn't win by elections.
    except the ones they won , Dudley South , South East Staffs , Wirrall West and 9 seats held in 1997-2000 with none lost
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    glw said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    Is it really credible that the Tories might win it? That would be a hell of a coup.

    It occurs to me that this is a terrible prospect, Labour might actually do something about Corbyn. Boris needs to say something very rude about Merkel ASAP.
    Labour has no chance of getting rid of Corbyn after party members renewed his mandate and even if they lose Copeland they will likely hold Stoke on the same day albeit with a reduced majority
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    Labour were umpteen points ahead in the polls in the late 90s but didn't win by elections.
    except the ones they won , Dudley South , South East Staffs , Wirrall West and 9 seats held in 1997-2000 with none lost
    Holding a seat is a bit different from gaining one!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    tlg86 said:

    FFS - I hope those reports from Copeland are rubbish.

    Betting on Labour ?
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    edited January 2017
    Time to shift my position re: Copeland from mildly pro-Labour to pro-Conservative.

    Edit: 5/6 on Con still available by the way.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,822
    Evening all :)

    Just read the text of Trump's inauguration speech - has someone told him he won ? An extraordinary call to arms I suppose and full of paradox.

    On the one hand, it's America First but it's also about forging old and new alliances round the world.

    The other paradox for me is that I'm left wondering, as with Obama in 2009, whether we will come to accept the reality failed to match the rhetoric. Perhaps for both men, the rhetoric is their strength and the reality their weakness.

    Oddly enough, I think May is the complete opposite.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,249
    It has been rumoured that Theresa May will be going to the US in February. If the by elections are on the 23rd February it would be very bad news for labour if the dates coincide
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    glw said:

    tyson said:

    Watching the Piers Morgan interview with DJT I kinda get him a bit more.

    To be honest I'm not bothered by his business approach. I've done alright myself out of real estate and leverage.....obviously not in the manner of Trump, but I've always bought property in good areas and made them aesthetically pleasing....the Trump business model. Hardly rocket science mind.

    If Trump embraced renewables, and embraced multiculturalism....I. could take the rest....

    Trump's not a cultural conservative, and the office of the President is powerful but has real limits. I don't think he can do half as much harm as some fear, and if nothing else Trump ought to shake things up, which might produce positive effects after his Presidency if not during it.

    Maybe Bernie Saunders should dig behind the wire to see where they can meet?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    It has been rumoured that Theresa May will be going to the US in February. If the by elections are on the 23rd February it would be very bad news for labour if the dates coincide

    Depends what POTUS Trump has done in the interim :D
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    Labour were umpteen points ahead in the polls in the late 90s but didn't win by elections.
    Were there (m)any by-elections 1997-2000?
    The Tories held Uxbridge and Eddisbury during that time which looked like possible gains for Labour.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    Essexit said:

    Time to shift my position re: Copeland from mildly pro-Labour to pro-Conservative.

    Edit: 5/6 on Con still available by the way.

    SkyBet. A good price.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    Labour were umpteen points ahead in the polls in the late 90s but didn't win by elections.
    except the ones they won , Dudley South , South East Staffs , Wirrall West and 9 seats held in 1997-2000 with none lost
    They failed to gain Uxbridge or Beckenham or Eddisbury though despite their big poll lead which shows what a coup a Copeland win would be for May
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @tyson. I laughed when you said they were on the 'deluded side of delusional.' The trouble with a lot of the Corbyn supporters I know is that they only know people who think like them, for the most part.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,249
    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    FFS - I hope those reports from Copeland are rubbish.

    Betting on Labour ?
    I took the 5-4 on the Tories on the day it was announced and chose to back Labour at 13-8 last night to win on either. I know you think Labour should win, but does this change things for you?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    While that sounds bad, it was only a 2.7% drop.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    In terms of percentage of the vote the Tory vote in Sleaford was virtually unchanged, it was the best performance for a governing party in a by election for years
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    glw said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    Is it really credible that the Tories might win it? That would be a hell of a coup.

    It occurs to me that this is a terrible prospect, Labour might actually do something about Corbyn. Boris needs to say something very rude about Merkel ASAP.
    Would Boris being rude to the Germans cost the Tories votes in Copeland though?
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,249
    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    Was Sleaford only a 2.7% drop
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    tyson said:

    Maybe Bernie Saunders should dig behind the wire to see where they can meet?

    I think Trump's victory ought to prompt Democrats and Republicans to ask "how the hell did that happen?" Both parties need to think again.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,357
    edited January 2017
    tlg86 said:

    Britain last.

    "Ask not what America can do for you..."
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Meanwhile, I'm shocked that matt hasn't returned to lecture me on my 'limited knowledge'. But ah well, tomorrow's another day.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    In terms of percentage of the vote the Tory vote in Sleaford was virtually unchanged, it was the best performance for a governing party in a by election for years
    No it wasn't , it was not as good as Labour's performance in Beckenham for just one example
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    In terms of percentage of the vote the Tory vote in Sleaford was virtually unchanged, it was the best performance for a governing party in a by election for years
    No it wasn't , it was not as good as Labour's performance in Beckenham for just one example
    And 1997 was indeed years ago ;)
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/jenniferamur/status/822555580803989506
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    edited January 2017
    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    In terms of percentage of the vote the Tory vote in Sleaford was virtually unchanged, it was the best performance for a governing party in a by election for years
    No it wasn't , it was not as good as Labour's performance in Beckenham for just one example
    19 years ago and at a time Blair was walking on water and even then he failed to win the seat. In Sleaford the Labour vote fell 7% so if the Tories get their vote out they will win
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    Just caught up with Trump's speech. We're in for a wild ride. :/
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/bbcjamescook/status/822554554642432000
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
    Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    edited January 2017
    Got £110 on at 1.83, Winner.co.uk down to 1.73 and Skybet down to 1.63.

    Best result still Labour :D
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bbcjamescook/status/822554554642432000

    What the hell?

    Please don't tell me this is the work of the protestors....
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
    Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
    Down a third in terms of share of vote, or absolute number?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
    Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
    It'll be a superb performance if they only lose 1/3 of their voters from the general.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/bbcjamescook/status/822554554642432000

    What the hell?

    Please don't tell me this is the work of the protestors....
    Wouldn't be surprised given the other reports of minor vandalism earlier.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/bbcjamescook/status/822555719962607616
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
    Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
    Down a third in terms of share of vote, or absolute number?
    Ask the Telegraph - LOL .
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/bbcjamescook/status/822555719962607616

    Erm.. perhaps the media should get out of the way?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,249
    edited January 2017
    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
    Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
    You really are desperate for the conservatives not to win but as you support for the one undemocratic party in the UK that should not be a surprise
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    Was Sleaford only a 2.7% drop
    This was the change in votes at Sleaford

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/807151640734289920


  • Options
    Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    tyson said:

    Watching the Piers Morgan interview with DJT I kinda get him a bit more.

    To be honest I'm not bothered by his business approach. I've done alright myself out of real estate and leverage.....obviously not in the manner of Trump, but I've always bought property in good areas and made them aesthetically pleasing....the Trump business model. Hardly rocket science mind.

    If Trump embraced renewables, and embraced multiculturalism....I. could take the rest....

    The way to get through the next few years is to read "Trump" in the traditional British sense of "untimely bottom burp". Unexpectedly, you can take a childish delight in news headlines
    "European Leaders dismayed by Trump..." etc.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
    Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
    Down a third in terms of share of vote, or absolute number?
    Ask the Telegraph - LOL .
    If it was absolute number and turnout does go down by half (typical for by elections?) they would trounce the Tories. Given the story is about them potentially losing the seat, I don't think that is the case.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    @MikeSmithson - Lib Dems winning here? :)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    MikeSmithson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    Was Sleaford only a 2.7% drop
    This was the change in votes at Sleaford

    twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/807151640734289920


    Good old Lib Dem bar charts! :D
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
    Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
    Are you illiterate? It says the share of support is down by a third and that the vote share is expected to be down in the thirties.

    The Conservatives support wasn't down in Sleaford, just their turnout. Turnout will combine with less support not mitigate it in Copeland.

    Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.

    Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    The stories that came from Richmond regarding the Lib Dem canvassing numbers proved to be accurate.

    How good are these canvass numbers. If its the Labour vote down by a third from the GE then they'll trounce the Tories handily.
  • Options
    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,995
    RobD said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/bbcjamescook/status/822554554642432000

    What the hell?

    Please don't tell me this is the work of the protestors....
    Wouldn't be surprised given the other reports of minor vandalism earlier.
    The irony is that the anarchists are probably damaging the property of Democrat voters.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
    Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
    Down a third in terms of share of vote, or absolute number?
    Ask the Telegraph - LOL .
    If it was absolute number and turnout does go down by half (typical for by elections?) they would trounce the Tories. Given the story is about them potentially losing the seat, I don't think that is the case.
    I doubt whether there is much truth in the story , much more like awful expectation management on behalf of the Conservatives .
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,249
    MikeSmithson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    Was Sleaford only a 2.7% drop
    This was the change in votes at Sleaford

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/807151640734289920


    But is was only a minor drop in share. Unless I am wrong it is voting share that matters
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeSmithson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    Was Sleaford only a 2.7% drop
    This was the change in votes at Sleaford

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/807151640734289920


    Lib Dems and their bar charts. Change in vote share?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
    Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
    Down a third in terms of share of vote, or absolute number?
    Ask the Telegraph - LOL .
    If it was absolute number and turnout does go down by half (typical for by elections?) they would trounce the Tories. Given the story is about them potentially losing the seat, I don't think that is the case.
    I doubt whether there is much truth in the story , much more like awful expectation management on behalf of the Conservatives .
    What should they have done, told the Telegraph not to run the story?
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
    Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
    Are you illiterate? It says the share of support is down by a third and that the vote share is expected to be down in the thirties.

    The Conservatives support wasn't down in Sleaford, just their turnout. Turnout will combine with less support not mitigate it in Copeland.

    Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.

    Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
    No I am not illiterate , just a bit more wary of fake news than you are .
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Pulpstar said:

    The stories that came from Richmond regarding the Lib Dem canvassing numbers proved to be accurate.

    How good are these canvass numbers. If its the Labour vote down by a third from the GE then they'll trounce the Tories handily.

    The article does say vote share down.

    I'm not on Copeland and I have just £25 on Stoke. I am quite happy to be wrong!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/822548779173871619

    LOL.

    I wonder what excuse Corbynistas will come up with now....
    I wonder what excuse the Conservatives will come up with when they fail to win the seat .
    Excuses? It would be most unusual for a government to win a seat at a by election.
    But but , we are umpteen points ahead in the opinion polls and Corbyn is rubbish and our expectation management was so bad that our supporters assumed we would win easily so they simply stayed at home .
    I have phoned in Copeland, the Tory vote is solid and motivated as it was in Sleaford which the Tories won easily. If Copeland goes blue it will be a triumph for May, no PM since Thatcher has gained a parliamentary seat in a by election
    As solid as Sleaford where the Conservative vote fell by half from 34,000 odd to 17,000 odd .
    And turnout
    And turnout will fall in Copeland too
    So it's share of the vote not total votes cast that matters then.
    Yes , of course , and if Labour's support is down by 1/3rd as per the Telegraph story ( false news ? ) and the Conservatives id down by half as per Sleaford , Labour will win .
    Are you illiterate? It says the share of support is down by a third and that the vote share is expected to be down in the thirties.

    The Conservatives support wasn't down in Sleaford, just their turnout. Turnout will combine with less support not mitigate it in Copeland.

    Canvass returns taken in recent weeks show that support for Labour has dropped 35 per cent in Copeland when compared with the 2015 election result, this newspaper has learned.

    Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.
    No I am not illiterate , just a bit more wary of fake news than you are .
    What part do you think is fake?
This discussion has been closed.