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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May loses her battle to be able to invoke Article 50 w

SystemSystem Posts: 11,682
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May loses her battle to be able to invoke Article 50 without an Act of Parliament

So now TMay will have to get a bill through the commons & Lord to trigger Article 50https://t.co/viGKHORRZm pic.twitter.com/EVq1lWLfsE

Read the full story here


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    Huzzah for Parliament sovereignty
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Have the odds for an early GE changed yet? House of Lords can't really afford to play silly buggers on Article 50.
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    The poor Daily Mail, Lord Carnwath was a dissenter, they had him down as a vile Europhile who hates the voters.
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    The reporting so far sounds like government lost, but the court haven't got beyond that in regards to devolved parliaments and / or requiring the government to do much more than a single line bill.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @fleetstreetfox: TURNS OUT WE HAD PARLIAMENTARY SOVERIEGNTY ALL ALONG! Who knew.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited January 2017
    dr_spyn said:

    Have the odds for an early GE changed yet? House of Lords can't really afford to play silly buggers on Article 50.

    I think the Lords should be abolished, or at least seriously reformed. And those were my thoughts a long time before any EU-ref bill.

    How many hitherto leavers will suddenly flip their stance on the Lords if it mucks around with the bill ?
    How many remainers will suddenly become fans if the Lords does the same ?
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    dr_spyn said:

    Have the odds for an early GE changed yet? House of Lords can't really afford to play silly buggers on Article 50.

    The Salisbury-Addison convention might apply here, after all the Tory manifesto says we'd remain members of the single market.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,002
    edited January 2017
    dr_spyn said:
    Oh, FFS. Corbyn's going to kill Labour.

    Edit: I'm expecting papers to be released showing that Corbyn was actually a Conservative sleeper agent, placed into position by Thatcher to destroy her opponents. McDonnell was another.

    Abbott failed to qualify to be an agent, and is just a useful idiot ... ;)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited January 2017
    @not_on_fire

    Rather intemperate post about my knowledge that drivers licenses act as a defacto state ID in the US.

    Yes, I do know that. @edmundintokyo was concerned that having to go to the DMV (which was horrible the one time I've been, but no worse than a UK passport office) was an effective barrier to voters obtaining voting rights.

    I pointed out that it was possible in CA (but I don't know about WI) to get a driver's license by post.

    So I'm not quite sure what you are concerned about...
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    dr_spyn said:
    Oh, FFS. Corbyn's going to kill Labour.
    'Going to'?

    'Already has', surely?
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    Charles said:
    Good to get an update on your 'on fire' status.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    So now the Govt. can get on with implementing the clear majority view of UK voters to leave the EU, on the best terms it can negotiate. A short Bill to facilitate that will no doubt get published within days. There won't be much effective opposition to this - the chances of a conditional support, tying the UK to staying in the Single Market, are zero.

    So we will trigger Article 50. We are leaving the EU, either on an acceptable deal with the EU or else on WTO terms if they want to press on with the "punishment beatings".

    The Remainers at that point either fold up their tents and accept we have a new relationship with Europe - or become Rejoiners - on whatever terms the EU requires of joiners, including Schengen, the EU, a European Army et al. The appetite for that in the UK? Tiny.
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    Mail headline...

    Yet again the elite show their contempt for Brexit voters! Supreme Court rules Theresa May CANNOT trigger Britain's departure from the EU without MPs' approval
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    The reporting so far sounds like government lost, but the court haven't got beyond that in regards to devolved parliaments and / or requiring the government to do much more than a single line bill.

    The summary of the decision leaves a lot of unanswered questions. Hopefully, the full judgement is more illuminating. If not, there could be a few more legal challenges to come over the nature of the legislation the government puts forward.

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    I wonder if A50 frustration efforts are going to be a rock upon which many MPs and Lords will smash themselves. If May plays this ruling magnanimously but plays hardball on the wording of the bill it may prove tremendously good for her politically.

    Labour, having just been told in no uncertain terms that Parliament is sovereign, are going to seek to frustrate future parliaments' sovereignty over labour laws. Good luck with that!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    The reporting so far sounds like government lost, but the court haven't got beyond that in regards to devolved parliaments and / or requiring the government to do much more than a single line bill.

    The summary of the decision leaves a lot of unanswered questions. Hopefully, the full judgement is more illuminating. If not, there could be a few more legal challenges to come over the nature of the legislation the government puts forward.

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2016-0196-judgment.pdf
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:
    Good to get an update on your 'on fire' status.
    You are fast :smiley:
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Charles said:

    @not_on_fire

    Rather intemperate post about my knowledge that drivers licenses act as a defacto state ID in the US.

    Yes, I do know that. @edmundintokyo was concerned that having to go to the DMV (which was horrible the one time I've been, but no worse than a UK passport office) was an effective barrier to voters obtaining voting rights.

    I pointed out that it was possible in CA (but I don't know about WI) to get a driver's license by post.

    So I'm not quite sure what you are concerned about...

    You're right, my post was not as polite as it could have been. Apologies.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Surely Nicola Sturgeon will call a referendum now. Oh...
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Liz truss has just got her Supreme Court praise in. Someone must have shouted 99.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    @not_on_fire

    Rather intemperate post about my knowledge that drivers licenses act as a defacto state ID in the US.

    Yes, I do know that. @edmundintokyo was concerned that having to go to the DMV (which was horrible the one time I've been, but no worse than a UK passport office) was an effective barrier to voters obtaining voting rights.

    I pointed out that it was possible in CA (but I don't know about WI) to get a driver's license by post.

    So I'm not quite sure what you are concerned about...

    You're right, my post was not as polite as it could have been. Apologies.
    No problem
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited January 2017

    Mail headline...

    Yet again the elite show their contempt for Brexit voters! Supreme Court rules Theresa May CANNOT trigger Britain's departure from the EU without MPs' approval

    What a contemptible rag the Mail is.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    dr_spyn said:
    Good. The more important amendment is however what Starmer envisaged earlier, that Parliament will have the power to reject a deal and instruct the Government to resume negotiations on terms. That is likely to get some Tory support (for varying reasons MPs will want the chance to object to the terms if they don't like them, without thereby triggering hard Brexit), and the EU would IMO be up for stopping the clock if that happened.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017
    dr_spyn said:
    Possibly the dumbest, most impractical political position of my lifetime. Astonishing.

    If I were Mrs May, I would be delighted. The court case has done her all manner of favours.

    It has shot the devolved assemblies' collective fox, put Labour back on the political cross, allowed time for tempers to cool, reinforced the UK's attractiveness as a law-abiding polity and allowed her to present her opposition with a virtual fait accomplis.

    It's an ill wind etc.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Accordingly, (i) we dismiss the Secretary of State’s appeal against the
    decision of the English and Welsh Divisional Court, (ii) we invite the parties to the
    reference from the Northern Irish Court of Appeal to agree or, failing agreement, to
    make written submissions as to the order to be made on the appeal from that Court,
    and (iii) we answer the second and fifth questions referred by the courts of Northern
    Ireland as indicated respectively in paras 150 and 134 above, and we do not answer
    the first, third and fourth questions as they have been superseded.
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    SeanT said:

    The bitter irony for Remoaners is that their hysteria, and their attempts to derail the referendum (including these court cases), have propelled us towards a Harder Brexit than might otherwise have happened.

    Because the Establishment looked like they were trying to sabotage the vote, TMay had to signal to Leavers (the majority) and her party, that Brexit really meant Brexit which reallly meant Hard Brexit.

    So well done Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham, et al. You helped us leave the Single Market, as well as the EU.

    The government is the Establishment. We are leaving the single market because it is not compatible with limiting freedom of movement for EU citizens.

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    I think that Theresa May has played a blinder. If she had just served A50 it would have been in chaos now, furthermore by going to appeal she has instantly clarified the devolved administration positions and thereby prevented subsequent challenges.

    It must be impossible now for any politician to survive if they attempt to delay or stop the process and that includes the HOL.

    A good day at the office for her
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    My legalese understanding isn't perfect, is there something in this for remainers wrt Northern Ireland ?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Despite being a Lib Dem member, I don't agree with Tim Farron's policy. Doesn't make sense and doesn't appear to be workable unless Article 50 can be revoked. Oh well, Parliament's going to have fun with this.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    "White House press secretary Sean Spicer announced Monday that the daily press briefing will soon make room for "Skype seats" so that journalists not in close proximity to Washington are able to participate in the briefings.

    "Beginning later this week, I'm excited to announce that we're going to have four what we call 'Skype seats,' live here in the briefing room," Spicer said during Monday's briefing.

    He said that the purpose was to "open up" the briefings to "a diverse group of journalists from around the country who may not have the convenience or funding to travel to Washington."

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/white-house-to-include-skype-seats-in-press-briefing-room/article/2612700
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Tim Farron = Tim Far out, man....
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    dr_spyn said:
    Bizarre.

    When we were heading for soft Brexit a further referendum would have given the Moggsters a chance to impose hard Brexit by vetoing the deal.

    But now we are heading for a hard Brexit anyway the extra referendum becomes moot
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    dr_spyn said:
    Good. The more important amendment is however what Starmer envisaged earlier, that Parliament will have the power to reject a deal and instruct the Government to resume negotiations on terms. That is likely to get some Tory support (for varying reasons MPs will want the chance to object to the terms if they don't like them, without thereby triggering hard Brexit), and the EU would IMO be up for stopping the clock if that happened.

    It also seems to be implicit in the Supreme Court decision that Parliament is sovereign.

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    Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    SeanT said:

    The bitter irony for Remoaners is that their hysteria, and their attempts to derail the referendum (including these court cases), have propelled us towards a Harder Brexit than might otherwise have happened.

    This is satire!

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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    PlatoSaid said:

    "White House press secretary Sean Spicer announced Monday that the daily press briefing will soon make room for "Skype seats" so that journalists not in close proximity to Washington are able to participate in the briefings.

    "Beginning later this week, I'm excited to announce that we're going to have four what we call 'Skype seats,' live here in the briefing room," Spicer said during Monday's briefing.

    He said that the purpose was to "open up" the briefings to "a diverse group of journalists from around the country who may not have the convenience or funding to travel to Washington."

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/white-house-to-include-skype-seats-in-press-briefing-room/article/2612700

    In other news, the Kremlin has just installed Skype.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited January 2017
    FPT


    the right in the US clearly has lost it's mind — they're falling into step behind Trump who is against anything the right have actually stood for in recent years - free trade, not supporting dodgy regimes (Russia), not blowing billions on prok/infrastructure, not picking winners etc. To say nothing of this whole alternative facts business. Almost the only thing Trump and the right appear to agree on is sabotaging obamacare.

    Trump and the right do not agree on sabotaging Obamacare. The right wants to abolish it: Trump wants to replace it.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/823830962710728705

    *cough*

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/21/in-safe-hands-whose-finger-is-on-the-article-50-button/

    "What of the referendum? Well, not much. It was in legal terms an advisory referendum and the government – formally at least – is free to ignore it. Indeed, it is easy to construct an alternative history where the referendum went the other way but David Cameron was ousted in favour of a Brexiteering Prime Minister. Would Prime Minister Leadsom really have been legally entitled to disregard popular opinion and, without seeking the sanction of Parliament, take Britain out of the EU anyway? Logically the scope of the royal prerogative cannot be determined by the result of a non-binding referendum. Either Parliament has a say in this or it doesn’t."
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Topping, indeed. It only makes any sense if Farron wants a Deal/Remain choice at the referendum.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    SNP to table 50 amendments to A50 bill.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: New: SNP TO TABLE 50 AMENDMENTS TO ARTICLE 50 LEGISLATION.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    SNP to table 50 amendments to A50 bill.

    All of which will be heavily defeated. Timewasters.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Farron's words.

    “I welcome today's judgement. But this court case was never about legal arguments, it was about giving the people a voice, a say, in what happens next.

    “This Tory Brexit government are keen to laud the democratic process when it suits them, but will not give the people a voice over the final deal. They seem happy to start with democracy and end in a stitch up.

    “The Liberal Democrats are clear, we demand a vote of the people on the final deal and without that we will not vote for Article 50.”

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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Yep, I don't think May is going to be 'too' dissapointed with this. She should easily have the votes to carry the A50 bill.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    edited January 2017
    SNP to filibuster article 50??
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    Yep, I don't think May is going to be 'too' dissapointed with this. She should easily have the votes to carry the A50 bill.

    450+ Ayes, I should imagine.

    No amendment will pass.
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Not a great week for the Govt and its only Tuesday.........TM will be looking for a few scalps is my thinking and it'll be more than one.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    SNP to filibuster article 50??

    As ever, they'll do everything to look efficient and patriotic.

    ....And have zero impact on Britain as a whole.

    As I said, timewasters.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    Mail headline...

    Yet again the elite show their contempt for Brexit voters! Supreme Court rules Theresa May CANNOT trigger Britain's departure from the EU without MPs' approval

    Reverting to it’s Nazi-sympathising past!
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    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    The bitter irony for Remoaners is that their hysteria, and their attempts to derail the referendum (including these court cases), have propelled us towards a Harder Brexit than might otherwise have happened.

    Because the Establishment looked like they were trying to sabotage the vote, TMay had to signal to Leavers (the majority) and her party, that Brexit really meant Brexit which reallly meant Hard Brexit.

    So well done Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham, et al. You helped us leave the Single Market, as well as the EU.

    The government is the Establishment. We are leaving the single market because it is not compatible with limiting freedom of movement for EU citizens.

    I think there was room for a Softer Brexit, if the Remoaners hadn't talked about scuppering the referendum altogether. Then Soft Brexit became politically impossible. TMay had to talk tough.

    There is till room for a softer Brexit, but May has made it very clear that she does not want one. She wants to limit free movement for EU citizens. That is her priority.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FPT @SeanT No, not satire. In the words of the Supreme Court itself:

    "4. Some of the most important issues of law which judges have to decide concern questions relating to the constitutional arrangements of the United Kingdom. These proceedings raise such issues. As already indicated, this is not because they concern the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union; it is because they concern (i) the extent of ministers’ power to effect changes in domestic law through exercise of their prerogative powers at the international level, and (ii) the relationship between the UK government and Parliament on the one hand and the devolved legislatures and administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on the other."
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/823830962710728705

    *cough*

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/21/in-safe-hands-whose-finger-is-on-the-article-50-button/

    "What of the referendum? Well, not much. It was in legal terms an advisory referendum and the government – formally at least – is free to ignore it. Indeed, it is easy to construct an alternative history where the referendum went the other way but David Cameron was ousted in favour of a Brexiteering Prime Minister. Would Prime Minister Leadsom really have been legally entitled to disregard popular opinion and, without seeking the sanction of Parliament, take Britain out of the EU anyway? Logically the scope of the royal prerogative cannot be determined by the result of a non-binding referendum. Either Parliament has a say in this or it doesn’t."

    I think *something* needs to be done to make ALL future referendums binding, no matter what the subject. A non binding referendum is a most pernicious vehicle as it allows a government to ignore a result if it wins, and implement a result if it loses - which although technically legally correct is completely outside any sort of natural justice wrt democracy.

    This situation must never be allowed to happen again.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,221
    Surely the most important part, on a practical level, is devolved lot don't get veto?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    SNP Random Amendment Generator unveiled in Holyrood.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    dr_spyn said:
    Good. The more important amendment is however what Starmer envisaged earlier, that Parliament will have the power to reject a deal and instruct the Government to resume negotiations on terms. That is likely to get some Tory support (for varying reasons MPs will want the chance to object to the terms if they don't like them, without thereby triggering hard Brexit), and the EU would IMO be up for stopping the clock if that happened.
    Once activated, A50 is a ticking clock. We are out of the EU after 2 years, deal or no deal.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited January 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/823830962710728705

    *cough*

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/21/in-safe-hands-whose-finger-is-on-the-article-50-button/

    "What of the referendum? Well, not much. It was in legal terms an advisory referendum and the government – formally at least – is free to ignore it. Indeed, it is easy to construct an alternative history where the referendum went the other way but David Cameron was ousted in favour of a Brexiteering Prime Minister. Would Prime Minister Leadsom really have been legally entitled to disregard popular opinion and, without seeking the sanction of Parliament, take Britain out of the EU anyway? Logically the scope of the royal prerogative cannot be determined by the result of a non-binding referendum. Either Parliament has a say in this or it doesn’t."

    I think *something* needs to be done to make ALL future referendums binding, no matter what the subject. A non binding referendum is a most pernicious vehicle as it allows a government to ignore a result if it wins, and implement a result if it loses - which although technically legally correct is completely outside any sort of natural justice wrt democracy.

    This situation must never be allowed to happen again.
    Better still, don't have any more referendums. It was hardly a showcase for an informed democratic process.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    DanSmith said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Good. The more important amendment is however what Starmer envisaged earlier, that Parliament will have the power to reject a deal and instruct the Government to resume negotiations on terms. That is likely to get some Tory support (for varying reasons MPs will want the chance to object to the terms if they don't like them, without thereby triggering hard Brexit), and the EU would IMO be up for stopping the clock if that happened.
    Once activated, A50 is a ticking clock. We are out of the EU after 2 years, deal or no deal.
    Wrong. The time limit can be extended if both sides agree, and its not yet been decided if A50 is retractable.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    Well, if the Government hasn’t got a draft Bill ready ........
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Mortimer said:

    SNP to filibuster article 50??

    As ever, they'll do everything to look efficient and patriotic.

    ....And have zero impact on Britain as a whole.

    As I said, timewasters.
    Wouldn't the Government apply a guillotine (to the bill, not the SNP)?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,221

    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/823830962710728705

    *cough*

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/21/in-safe-hands-whose-finger-is-on-the-article-50-button/

    "What of the referendum? Well, not much. It was in legal terms an advisory referendum and the government – formally at least – is free to ignore it. Indeed, it is easy to construct an alternative history where the referendum went the other way but David Cameron was ousted in favour of a Brexiteering Prime Minister. Would Prime Minister Leadsom really have been legally entitled to disregard popular opinion and, without seeking the sanction of Parliament, take Britain out of the EU anyway? Logically the scope of the royal prerogative cannot be determined by the result of a non-binding referendum. Either Parliament has a say in this or it doesn’t."

    I think *something* needs to be done to make ALL future referendums binding, no matter what the subject. A non binding referendum is a most pernicious vehicle as it allows a government to ignore a result if it wins, and implement a result if it loses - which although technically legally correct is completely outside any sort of natural justice wrt democracy.

    This situation must never be allowed to happen again.
    Better still, don't have any more referendums. It was hardly a showcase for an informed democratic process.
    Too right. :+1::+1:
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    The bitter irony for Remoaners is that their hysteria, and their attempts to derail the referendum (including these court cases), have propelled us towards a Harder Brexit than might otherwise have happened.

    Because the Establishment looked like they were trying to sabotage the vote, TMay had to signal to Leavers (the majority) and her party, that Brexit really meant Brexit which reallly meant Hard Brexit.

    So well done Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham, et al. You helped us leave the Single Market, as well as the EU.

    The government is the Establishment. We are leaving the single market because it is not compatible with limiting freedom of movement for EU citizens.

    I think there was room for a Softer Brexit, if the Remoaners hadn't talked about scuppering the referendum altogether. Then Soft Brexit became politically impossible. TMay had to talk tough.

    There is till room for a softer Brexit, but May has made it very clear that she does not want one. She wants to limit free movement for EU citizens. That is her priority.
    There is still room for a softer Brexit, but the "punishment beatings" Hard EU loons in Brussels have made it very clear they do not want one.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    The bitter irony for Remoaners is that their hysteria, and their attempts to derail the referendum (including these court cases), have propelled us towards a Harder Brexit than might otherwise have happened.

    Because the Establishment looked like they were trying to sabotage the vote, TMay had to signal to Leavers (the majority) and her party, that Brexit really meant Brexit which reallly meant Hard Brexit.

    So well done Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham, et al. You helped us leave the Single Market, as well as the EU.

    The government is the Establishment. We are leaving the single market because it is not compatible with limiting freedom of movement for EU citizens.

    I think there was room for a Softer Brexit, if the Remoaners hadn't talked about scuppering the referendum altogether. Then Soft Brexit became politically impossible. TMay had to talk tough.

    There is till room for a softer Brexit, but May has made it very clear that she does not want one. She wants to limit free movement for EU citizens. That is her priority.
    Perhaps. But if the Remainers and Soft Brexiteers had shown a united political front immediately after the vote, and called for Single Market membership, she would have found it a lot more difficult to sell Hard Brexit.

    Instead the Remainers went mad and tried to have the vote reversed or ignored. This pissed off potential Soft Brexit allies, who rallied behind Any Brexit, allowing TMay political room to push for a clean break.

    All history now. We're out.

    Amazing. Somehow it's always Remainers' fault. You'd think that Leavers would have got the hang of this taking control lark by now.
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    We are where we are today because Tory MPs voted through a disastrously poor piece of legislation. It was hurried and it was not thought-through. Better legislation could have been drafted and all of this could have been avoided. There is nothing that the Supreme Court has said today which is a huge surprise. It could and should have been anticipated.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCVickiYoung: David Davis will answer questions in the Commons at 12.30pm #brexit
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Well, if the Government hasn’t got a draft Bill ready ........

    @OldKingCole – Love your new avatar. :lol:
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Hah.

    Corbo's statement actually has the words 'bargain basement' in it.

    What a hopeless leader.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718
    TOPPING said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Bizarre.

    When we were heading for soft Brexit a further referendum would have given the Moggsters a chance to impose hard Brexit by vetoing the deal.

    But now we are heading for a hard Brexit anyway the extra referendum becomes moot
    Moot means 'subject to debate'.
    OK, fine.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067

    Surely the most important part, on a practical level, is devolved lot don't get veto?

    Yes. I think it puts Sturgeon on the spot regarding a referendum. She really has to go for it now and not wait from Brexit to happen.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    DanSmith said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Good. The more important amendment is however what Starmer envisaged earlier, that Parliament will have the power to reject a deal and instruct the Government to resume negotiations on terms. That is likely to get some Tory support (for varying reasons MPs will want the chance to object to the terms if they don't like them, without thereby triggering hard Brexit), and the EU would IMO be up for stopping the clock if that happened.
    Once activated, A50 is a ticking clock. We are out of the EU after 2 years, deal or no deal.
    Wrong. The time limit can be extended if both sides agree, and its not yet been decided if A50 is retractable.
    Politically, it is perfectly clear that Article 50 is not retractable.

    Nor should it be legally. If it could be retractable, that would encourage the EU to enter into bad faith negotiations/no negotiations. Article 50 only works if it is certain the party using it will leave in 2 years.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    judgement says that the A50 bill can be v short. Good.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    So the ball is in Westminster's court, and none of the devolved assemblies have a veto?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    The bitter irony for Remoaners is that their hysteria, and their attempts to derail the referendum (including these court cases), have propelled us towards a Harder Brexit than might otherwise have happened.

    Because the Establishment looked like they were trying to sabotage the vote, TMay had to signal to Leavers (the majority) and her party, that Brexit really meant Brexit which reallly meant Hard Brexit.

    So well done Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham, et al. You helped us leave the Single Market, as well as the EU.

    The government is the Establishment. We are leaving the single market because it is not compatible with limiting freedom of movement for EU citizens.

    I think there was room for a Softer Brexit, if the Remoaners hadn't talked about scuppering the referendum altogether. Then Soft Brexit became politically impossible. TMay had to talk tough.

    There is till room for a softer Brexit, but May has made it very clear that she does not want one. She wants to limit free movement for EU citizens. That is her priority.
    Perhaps. But if the Remainers and Soft Brexiteers had shown a united political front immediately after the vote, and called for Single Market membership, she would have found it a lot more difficult to sell Hard Brexit.

    Instead the Remainers went mad and tried to have the vote reversed or ignored. This pissed off potential Soft Brexit allies, who rallied behind Any Brexit, allowing TMay political room to push for a clean break.

    All history now. We're out.

    Amazing. Somehow it's always Remainers' fault. You'd think that Leavers would have got the hang of this taking control lark by now.
    Hahaha.

    Sadly those who lost are not that willing to cede it; not being used to losing, etc.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Telegraph
    Two in five people still don't know where Labour stands on #Brexit, while another 15% think it wants Britain to remain in the EU https://t.co/88dxhTPX3Q
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    TOPPING said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Bizarre.

    When we were heading for soft Brexit a further referendum would have given the Moggsters a chance to impose hard Brexit by vetoing the deal.

    But now we are heading for a hard Brexit anyway the extra referendum becomes moot
    Moot means 'subject to debate'.
    OK, fine.
    also 'an irrevelent question' i think common usage trumps that.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,221
    PlatoSaid said:

    Telegraph
    Two in five people still don't know where Labour stands on #Brexit, while another 15% think it wants Britain to remain in the EU https://t.co/88dxhTPX3Q

    2 in 5 Labour MPs don't know where their party stands (at least).
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,674
    edited January 2017

    Surely the most important part, on a practical level, is devolved lot don't get veto?

    Yes - that could have been a major headache - but the Supreme Court were pretty unequivocal:

    The Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly did not have a legal veto on the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union. Nor in our view has the Northern Ireland Assembly.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,221

    TOPPING said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Bizarre.

    When we were heading for soft Brexit a further referendum would have given the Moggsters a chance to impose hard Brexit by vetoing the deal.

    But now we are heading for a hard Brexit anyway the extra referendum becomes moot
    Moot means 'subject to debate'.
    OK, fine.
    also 'an irrevelent question' i think common usage trumps that.
    OED says both.
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    Surely the most important part, on a practical level, is devolved lot don't get veto?

    Yes. I think it puts Sturgeon on the spot regarding a referendum. She really has to go for it now and not wait from Brexit to happen.
    But she would lose
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    RobD said:

    So the ball is in Westminster's court, and none of the devolved assemblies have a veto?

    That's correct. However, if you'd like to rant, rage and generally froth about it, Twitter is having a high old time at the moment.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Have the odds for an early GE changed yet? House of Lords can't really afford to play silly buggers on Article 50.

    I think the Lords should be abolished, or at least seriously reformed. And those were my thoughts a long time before any EU-ref bill.

    How many hitherto leavers will suddenly flip their stance on the Lords if it mucks around with the bill ?
    How many remainers will suddenly become fans if the Lords does the same ?
    I'd be open to the Lords becoming a Council of the Isles, or similar.

    We need a constitutional convention post Brexit, but I doubt we'll get one.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    TOPPING said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Bizarre.

    When we were heading for soft Brexit a further referendum would have given the Moggsters a chance to impose hard Brexit by vetoing the deal.

    But now we are heading for a hard Brexit anyway the extra referendum becomes moot
    Moot means 'subject to debate'.
    OK, fine.
    also 'an irrevelent question' i think common usage trumps that.
    OED says both.
    Exactly. But in modern usage the second defination of it is much more common.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,818
    John_M said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Possibly the dumbest, most impractical political position of my lifetime. Astonishing.

    .
    You mean the position that was espoused by Dominic Cummings, Campaign Director for Vote Leave?
    http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2016/01/out-campaign

    "BAGEHOT: In the event of an Out vote do you think the government would seek to hold another referendum, on the terms of Brexit?

    DOMINIC CUMMINGS: I think that is a distinct possibility, yes. It’s obviously not something that we can force. We’re a campaign group. But I think it is perfectly possible that leadership candidates to replace David Cameron will say that they think there are good grounds for a new government team to offer the public a voice on what the deal looks like. And we obviously wouldn’t oppose that, if that’s what senior politicians want to offer. I think there’s a strong democratic case for it. There’s also the issue of the profound loss of trust that the establishment has suffered over the past 20-30 years. All parties have told lies about this subject, whether it’s John Major and David Cameron or Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and Nick Clegg. People have repeatedly promised referendums then not held referendums. So given that, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if leadership candidates to replace Cameron said: we need a mechanism so people can have confidence in what we say. "
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,221

    Surely the most important part, on a practical level, is devolved lot don't get veto?

    Yes. I think it puts Sturgeon on the spot regarding a referendum. She really has to go for it now and not wait from Brexit to happen.
    It would certainly add to the fun.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332

    dr_spyn said:

    Have the odds for an early GE changed yet? House of Lords can't really afford to play silly buggers on Article 50.

    The Salisbury-Addison convention might apply here, after all the Tory manifesto says we'd remain members of the single market.
    It also said the people would have the final say and the Conservatives would implement whatever they decide.
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    Odd that there is a complete lack of accountability on the advice and judgements of the department headed by the Attorney General Jeremy Wright. They are supposed to be the Government's experts on law and yet they completely misjudged the law in this area. An honourable person at the head of such a failure would resign.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Jeremy Corbyn MP ‏@jeremycorbyn 2 mins2 minutes ago

    Labour demands a plan from the government, accountability to Parliament throughout negotiations and a meaningful vote on the final deal.


    Err No Jeremey, negotiations don't work that way.
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    Surely the most important part, on a practical level, is devolved lot don't get veto?

    Yes. I think it puts Sturgeon on the spot regarding a referendum. She really has to go for it now and not wait from Brexit to happen.
    But she would lose
    So as May's biggest acolyte on here, you're saying she won't block it? Cool.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Jeremy Corbyn MP ‏@jeremycorbyn 2 mins2 minutes ago

    Labour demands a plan from the government, accountability to Parliament throughout negotiations and a meaningful vote on the final deal.


    Err No Jeremey, negotiations don't work that way.

    The man is utterly clueless.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    The bitter irony for Remoaners is that their hysteria, and their attempts to derail the referendum (including these court cases), have propelled us towards a Harder Brexit than might otherwise have happened.

    Because the Establishment looked like they were trying to sabotage the vote, TMay had to signal to Leavers (the majority) and her party, that Brexit really meant Brexit which reallly meant Hard Brexit.

    So well done Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham, et al. You helped us leave the Single Market, as well as the EU.

    The government is the Establishment. We are leaving the single market because it is not compatible with limiting freedom of movement for EU citizens.

    I think there was room for a Softer Brexit, if the Remoaners hadn't talked about scuppering the referendum altogether. Then Soft Brexit became politically impossible. TMay had to talk tough.

    There is till room for a softer Brexit, but May has made it very clear that she does not want one. She wants to limit free movement for EU citizens. That is her priority.
    Perhaps. But if the Remainers and Soft Brexiteers had shown a united political front immediately after the vote, and called for Single Market membership, she would have found it a lot more difficult to sell Hard Brexit.

    Instead the Remainers went mad and tried to have the vote reversed or ignored. This pissed off potential Soft Brexit allies, who rallied behind Any Brexit, allowing TMay political room to push for a clean break.

    All history now. We're out.

    Amazing. Somehow it's always Remainers' fault. You'd think that Leavers would have got the hang of this taking control lark by now.
    I'm just making a factual observation. Calm down.
    It's your usual lunacy when it comes to such matters. If "Soft Brexiteers" had not decided to pander to xenophobes, the option of soft Brexit would not have been closed off. You can't plaster the nation with untrue posters about how Turkey is joining the EU and then afterwards seek a solution that is completely inconsistent with the fear that was whipped up as a result.

    Remainers rightly have left them well alone.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335



    Politically, it is perfectly clear that Article 50 is not retractable.

    Nor should it be legally. If it could be retractable, that would encourage the EU to enter into bad faith negotiations/no negotiations. Article 50 only works if it is certain the party using it will leave in 2 years.

    The EU doesn't work like that - there are umpteen examples of the clock on apparently irrevocable deadlines being stopped. Naturally it takes two to tango and Britain would need to want it as well, for example because Parliament had voted to reject the terms initially negotiated. It is possible to argue that in that situation the EU would be fed up and would not agree to stop the clock, but I'm pretty familiar with the EU and IMO they would agree inthat situation, for a reasonable period.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/823830962710728705

    *cough*

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/21/in-safe-hands-whose-finger-is-on-the-article-50-button/

    "What of the referendum? Well, not much. It was in legal terms an advisory referendum and the government – formally at least – is free to ignore it. Indeed, it is easy to construct an alternative history where the referendum went the other way but David Cameron was ousted in favour of a Brexiteering Prime Minister. Would Prime Minister Leadsom really have been legally entitled to disregard popular opinion and, without seeking the sanction of Parliament, take Britain out of the EU anyway? Logically the scope of the royal prerogative cannot be determined by the result of a non-binding referendum. Either Parliament has a say in this or it doesn’t."

    I think *something* needs to be done to make ALL future referendums binding, no matter what the subject. A non binding referendum is a most pernicious vehicle as it allows a government to ignore a result if it wins, and implement a result if it loses - which although technically legally correct is completely outside any sort of natural justice wrt democracy.

    This situation must never be allowed to happen again.
    Better still, don't have any more referendums. It was hardly a showcase for an informed democratic process.
    Too right. :+1::+1:
    I think they're good on relatively narrow issues like the Swiss voting on the right to die, a citizen's income or changing the drugs laws. Less good on large, complex subjects, like whether it's a net benefit to have been governed a little bit by Brussels instead of by Whitehall.

    Yes they should become binding. If they remain winner-takes-all a threshold should be introduced too, such as 60/40% or 67/33%.

    If the 1975 vote had been binding, we wouldn't be going through all this. Yes won by 67/33%.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    The bitter irony for Remoaners is that their hysteria, and their attempts to derail the referendum (including these court cases), have propelled us towards a Harder Brexit than might otherwise have happened.

    Because the Establishment looked like they were trying to sabotage the vote, TMay had to signal to Leavers (the majority) and her party, that Brexit really meant Brexit which reallly meant Hard Brexit.

    So well done Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham, et al. You helped us leave the Single Market, as well as the EU.

    The government is the Establishment. We are leaving the single market because it is not compatible with limiting freedom of movement for EU citizens.

    I think there was room for a Softer Brexit, if the Remoaners hadn't talked about scuppering the referendum altogether. Then Soft Brexit became politically impossible. TMay had to talk tough.

    We would have had soft Brexit had the EU compromised on freedom of movement.

    It's the gaping chasm between how both the UK and the EU see the future that both led to the vote, and to the pursuit of a clean break.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Surely the most important part, on a practical level, is devolved lot don't get veto?

    Yes - that could have been a major headache - but the Supreme Court were pretty unequivocal:

    The Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly did not have a legal veto on the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union. Nor in our view has the Northern Ireland Assembly.
    Doesn’t that rather puts the mockers on Ms Sturgeon’s EU grandstanding position – or will she just ignore that bit of the ruling?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    Jeremy Corbyn MP ‏@jeremycorbyn 2 mins2 minutes ago

    Labour demands a plan from the government, accountability to Parliament throughout negotiations and a meaningful vote on the final deal.


    Err No Jeremey, negotiations don't work that way.

    The man is utterly clueless.
    If Corbyn wants to go down that road, then can someone ask him the question 'If at the end of the negotiations and a settlement agreed, Parliment vote down the agreement, what happens then?'
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    Surely the most important part, on a practical level, is devolved lot don't get veto?

    Yes. I think it puts Sturgeon on the spot regarding a referendum. She really has to go for it now and not wait from Brexit to happen.
    But she would lose
    So as May's biggest acolyte on here, you're saying she won't block it? Cool.
    No idea - but Sturgeon has had a big loss today and has no certainty that her threats would result in a yes vote for her
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    NewsTaker said:

    Odd that there is a complete lack of accountability on the advice and judgements of the department headed by the Attorney General Jeremy Wright. They are supposed to be the Government's experts on law and yet they completely misjudged the law in this area. An honourable person at the head of such a failure would resign.

    There are issues around how the Referendum legislation was drafted, for sure. But once the law around Article 50 had been questioned, the Gov. were bound to pursue the appeal on the most important constitutional questions in a generation.

    That the Supreme Court were able to deliver a judgment that flew in the face of what the Govt. might have WANTED it to give is a very healthy thing. And not a resigning issue.
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    No real movement in the money markets. Presume this decision has been priced in already.

    Big win for Theresa May in my view irrespective of whether it was planned in this way. Supreme Court gives her clarity and puts the issue to bed. She can now bat away any SNP complaints and the vote through parliament should be a formality. The Lords is the only remaining obstacle.
This discussion has been closed.