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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s corrosion is to Labour’s habits as much as to its pol

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s corrosion is to Labour’s habits as much as to its polling

“Damn your principles; stick to your party!” With such lofty dismissiveness did Disraeli once berate a colleague thinking of rebelling. It is not just hard but impossible to think of Jeremy Corbyn using like words, yet they are the currency of every successful parliamentary leader, if not always put so bluntly.

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Ah, glorious first!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Europe 1-UK 0

    Despite some very nifty footwork by Theresa May a defeat was always the most likely result. The 'hand of God' which did for England all those years ago has just done it again. The Europeans kept their distance and their dignity. We didn't. Being photographed hand in hand was the moment the world cringed. Here we were friendless clinging on for dear life to a President with the international respect of a dung beetle.
  • @Roger I'm inclined to agree. Now she holds the hand that grabbed the pussy. The world's varying power centre's will have been unable to believe it at first. The imagery* is so extraordinary. Which isn't to deny how well May did in key respects. In other circumstances it would have been a strong performance from a new PM. But these aren't other circumstances. And May has now not only owned but is amplifying this ludicrous new national indeed international narrative. It's like a rapidly rising stock market bubble. You can enjoy it while it lasts but they always burst. The actual reality of our Brexit position is so far detatched from what the Anglospherists fantasists are now churny out the bubble popping is going to be very painful indeed. Let's just hunker down and wait.

    * Either the handholding was agreed with May in advance in which case God help us. Or it was planned by Trump in advance without May's agreement in which case God help us. Or it was spotanious and Trump thinks that's an appropriate way to behave to a guest and collegue in front of the world's media. In which case God help us. My instinct is it was the later. She did subliminally what almost all of us would do. Took the hand via social conditioning in the split second she liminally realised what a bizzare and inappropriate thing it was and how it would look. I almost feel sorry for. We know Trump is a creepy sexual predator. But she volunteered to rush first into the cess put and knew the risks. In fairness to her she did very well in the circumstances to get that far in the visit before falling of the highwire. But she knew there was no safety net.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    @Roger I'm inclined to agree. Now she holds the hand that grabbed the pussy. The world's varying power centre's will have been unable to believe it at first. The imagery* is so extraordinary. Which isn't to deny how well May did in key respects. In other circumstances it would have been a strong performance from a new PM. But these aren't other circumstances. And May has now not only owned but is amplifying this ludicrous new national indeed international narrative. It's like a rapidly rising stock market bubble. You can enjoy it while it lasts but they always burst. The actual reality of our Brexit position is so far detatched from what the Anglospherists fantasists are now churny out the bubble popping is going to be very painful indeed. Let's just hunker down and wait.

    * Either the handholding was agreed with May in advance in which case God help us. Or it was planned by Trump in advance without May's agreement in which case God help us. Or it was spotanious and Trump thinks that's an appropriate way to behave to a guest and collegue in front of the world's media. In which case God help us. My instinct is it was the later. She did subliminally what almost all of us would do. Took the hand via social conditioning in the split second she liminally realised what a bizzare and inappropriate thing it was and how it would look. I almost feel sorry for. We know Trump is a creepy sexual predator. But she volunteered to rush first into the cess put and knew the risks. In fairness to her she did very well in the circumstances to get that far in the visit before falling of the highwire. But she knew there was no safety net.

    Weren't they heading down some steps at the time? If anything, he was probably trying too hard to be chivalrous!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    ........His lifelong training was in real estate, an area in which there is rarely such thing as a win-win deal: the more you get, the more I pay.

    He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited January 2017
    Though John Hurt was one of the UK's most interesting actors when I saw him on Thursday in 'Jackie' playing a priest I thought he was one of the few weak links in an otherwise outstanding film. He didn't convince me as either a priest or an Anerican and he looked medicated when it was Jackie who should have been suffering.

    I worked with him several times as a VO and remembering him regularly asking whether I wanted him to take a bigger drag on his Gouloise is now a little discomforting.

    But what a voice....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    I see having triumphed with the GOP and survived the Press Conference unscathed the Remoaners are now in a tizz over a well brought up Englishwoman offering a supporting hand to an elderly gentleman down some steps. What was she supposed to do? Give him a shove or trip him up?

    And as for "ridicule in the Chanceleries of Europe" I very much doubt it extends to the former Eastern bloc.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    I see having triumphed with the GOP and survived the Press Conference unscathed the Remoaners are now in a tizz over a well brought up Englishwoman offering a supporting hand to an elderly gentleman down some steps. What was she supposed to do? Give him a shove or trip him up?

    And as for "ridicule in the Chanceleries of Europe" I very much doubt it extends to the former Eastern bloc.

    The "Europeans kept their distance and dignity" - lol is that what you do when you're not invited? The and whining is so much fun.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Roger said:

    ........His lifelong training was in real estate, an area in which there is rarely such thing as a win-win deal: the more you get, the more I pay.

    He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying

    His lifelong training is not in real estate as in buy/sell an existing property, which is a zero sum game most of the time as you indicate, but in real estate development, which should nearly always be a win-win proposition. So the basis of this comment is entirely wrong.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    All our yesterdays...John Hurt aiding my first commercial

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jpq-2lk8XKY&feature=youtu.be

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    @Roger I'm inclined to agree. Now she holds the hand that grabbed the pussy. The world's varying power centre's will have been unable to believe it at first. The imagery* is so extraordinary. Which isn't to deny how well May did in key respects. In other circumstances it would have been a strong performance from a new PM. But these aren't other circumstances. And May has now not only owned but is amplifying this ludicrous new national indeed international narrative. It's like a rapidly rising stock market bubble. You can enjoy it while it lasts but they always burst. The actual reality of our Brexit position is so far detatched from what the Anglospherists fantasists are now churny out the bubble popping is going to be very painful indeed. Let's just hunker down and wait.

    * Either the handholding was agreed with May in advance in which case God help us. Or it was planned by Trump in advance without May's agreement in which case God help us. Or it was spotanious and Trump thinks that's an appropriate way to behave to a guest and collegue in front of the world's media. In which case God help us. My instinct is it was the later. She did subliminally what almost all of us would do. Took the hand via social conditioning in the split second she liminally realised what a bizzare and inappropriate thing it was and how it would look. I almost feel sorry for. We know Trump is a creepy sexual predator. But she volunteered to rush first into the cess put and knew the risks. In fairness to her she did very well in the circumstances to get that far in the visit before falling of the highwire. But she knew there was no safety net.

    Weren't they heading down some steps at the time? If anything, he was probably trying too hard to be chivalrous!
    I thought the Donald was famously reluctant to shake hands, asnd this was bis recent defence against the golden shower accusation. Pussy grabbing acquaintances presumably doesn't count.

  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    @Roger I'm inclined to agree. Now she holds the hand that grabbed the pussy. The world's varying power centre's will have been unable to believe it at first. The imagery* is so extraordinary. Which isn't to deny how well May did in key respects. In other circumstances it would have been a strong performance from a new PM. But these aren't other circumstances. And May has now not only owned but is amplifying this ludicrous new national indeed international narrative. It's like a rapidly rising stock market bubble. You can enjoy it while it lasts but they always burst. The actual reality of our Brexit position is so far detatched from what the Anglospherists fantasists are now churny out the bubble popping is going to be very painful indeed. Let's just hunker down and wait.

    * Either the handholding was agreed with May in advance in which case God help us. Or it was planned by Trump in advance without May's agreement in which case God help us. Or it was spotanious and Trump thinks that's an appropriate way to behave to a guest and collegue in front of the world's media. In which case God help us. My instinct is it was the later. She did subliminally what almost all of us would do. Took the hand via social conditioning in the split second she liminally realised what a bizzare and inappropriate thing it was and how it would look. I almost feel sorry for. We know Trump is a creepy sexual predator. But she volunteered to rush first into the cess put and knew the risks. In fairness to her she did very well in the circumstances to get that far in the visit before falling of the highwire. But she knew there was no safety net.

    It is what it is, an awkward social situation. The symbolism or pshychoanalysis will be lost on 99% of the worlds population
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2017
    MTimT said:

    Roger said:

    ........His lifelong training was in real estate, an area in which there is rarely such thing as a win-win deal: the more you get, the more I pay.

    He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying

    His lifelong training is not in real estate as in buy/sell an existing property, which is a zero sum game most of the time as you indicate, but in real estate development, which should nearly always be a win-win proposition. So the basis of this comment is entirely wrong.
    The key to successful real-estate development is surely having friends in city hall planning departments. I am sure that not everyone is corrupt, but enriching oneself by using government contacts is not unknown. It is part of why the Donald has such empathy for Putin's kleptocratic oligarchy.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I was once queue-jumped by John Hurt, but he did it so nicely I wasn't upset at all. RIP
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    RobD said:

    @Roger I'm inclined to agree. Now she holds the hand that grabbed the pussy. The world's varying power centre's will have been unable to believe it at first. The imagery* is so extraordinary. Which isn't to deny how well May did in key respects. In other circumstances it would have been a strong performance from a new PM. But these aren't other circumstances. And May has now not only owned but is amplifying this ludicrous new national indeed international narrative. It's like a rapidly rising stock market bubble. You can enjoy it while it lasts but they always burst. The actual reality of our Brexit position is so far detatched from what the Anglospherists fantasists are now churny out the bubble popping is going to be very painful indeed. Let's just hunker down and wait.

    * Either the handholding was agreed with May in advance in which case God help us. Or it was planned by Trump in advance without May's agreement in which case God help us. Or it was spotanious and Trump thinks that's an appropriate way to behave to a guest and collegue in front of the world's media. In which case God help us. My instinct is it was the later. She did subliminally what almost all of us would do. Took the hand via social conditioning in the split second she liminally realised what a bizzare and inappropriate thing it was and how it would look. I almost feel sorry for. We know Trump is a creepy sexual predator. But she volunteered to rush first into the cess put and knew the risks. In fairness to her she did very well in the circumstances to get that far in the visit before falling of the highwire. But she knew there was no safety net.

    Weren't they heading down some steps at the time? If anything, he was probably trying too hard to be chivalrous!
    Of course. We're just waiting for a betting market on how long it takes for Trump to squeeze the Queen's bottom
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited January 2017
    Morning all.

    Cheers Mr Herdson, not sure your prediction of an early Corbyn departure is likely imho, unless for some reason he decides to do so voluntarily. As we’ve seen with the no confidence vote and mass resignations, the signs are that he will cling on like a limpet to a rock till after the next election.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, David Herdson correctly identifies a major problem for Labour that is under-discussed.

    The next leader can reassert authority only if he or she has conspicuously played by the conventional rules: leadership by example isn't the main thing. It's the only thing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Some of this is overblown. The Lib send are still in a far worse place than Labour. UKIP are yet to win in their own right.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited January 2017

    I was once queue-jumped by John Hurt, but he did it so nicely I wasn't upset at all. RIP

    Perhaps rehearsing for his finest role (in my opinion) Quentin Crisp in the Naked Civil Servant
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    On topic, David Herdson correctly identifies a major problem for Labour that is under-discussed.

    The next leader can reassert authority only if he or she has conspicuously played by the conventional rules: leadership by example isn't the main thing. It's the only thing.

    Nice to have a topic on which I wholeheartedly agree.

    Looking forward to Mr Brind's rebuttal!
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    MTimT said:

    Roger said:

    ........His lifelong training was in real estate, an area in which there is rarely such thing as a win-win deal: the more you get, the more I pay.

    He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying

    His lifelong training is not in real estate as in buy/sell an existing property, which is a zero sum game most of the time as you indicate, but in real estate development, which should nearly always be a win-win proposition. So the basis of this comment is entirely wrong.
    The key to successful real-estate development is surely having friends in city hall planning departments. I am sure that not everyone is corrupt, but enriching oneself by using government contacts is not unknown. It is part of why the Donald has such empathy for Putin's kleptocratic oligarchy.
    Another outing for the lazy old cliché that developers rely on bent decision makers in local authorities. In my 30 years of trying to get planning approvals for clients I have yet to come across a single scrap of evidence that this goes on. Anyone involved in the system will tell you how difficult it is to get consent, indeed successive Governments have striven to simplify the process so that the country can build the houses it so badly needs.

    Because of the widespread misconception that planning is corrupt, as cheerfully and glibly espoused yet again by Dr Fox, most officials understandably go out of their way to apply policies to the letter so they are above suspicion. This of course serves to make the situation worse.

    But then what do facts matter these days?

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624

    On topic, David Herdson correctly identifies a major problem for Labour that is under-discussed.

    The next leader can reassert authority only if he or she has conspicuously played by the conventional rules: leadership by example isn't the main thing. It's the only thing.

    A "swing-back" to "Normal Labour" might be a very marketable thing in the Labour Party as a reaction in post-Corbyn Labour.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624

    Morning all.

    Cheers Mr Herdson, not sure your prediction of an early Corbyn departure is likely imho, unless for some reason he decides to do so voluntarily. As we’ve seen with the no confidence vote and mass resignations, the signs are that he will cling on like a limpet to a rock till after the next election.

    The question is the views of the Corbynistas on Europe - will they ditch their man for Europe, or the other way round?
  • To respond to various critiques of my earlier point: It's a picture What makes you think what " really " happened matters ? A picture is worth a thousand words. In this case words that suit a thousands narratives ipso facto. That's why world leaders general manage those stairs themselves unaided. And sitting US Presidents know better than hold guests hands.

    On topic David Herdson is astute. It's a constitutional inovation as well. Imagine if Corbyn was PM and he overturned a PLP no confidence vote by going to the members ? You can be appointed PM on the basis of a positive party vote. But remaining PM after a majority of the Commons didn't have confidence in you on the basis of an extraparliamentry vote... It is a constitutional inovation at least.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624

    MTimT said:

    Roger said:

    ........His lifelong training was in real estate, an area in which there is rarely such thing as a win-win deal: the more you get, the more I pay.

    He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying

    His lifelong training is not in real estate as in buy/sell an existing property, which is a zero sum game most of the time as you indicate, but in real estate development, which should nearly always be a win-win proposition. So the basis of this comment is entirely wrong.
    The key to successful real-estate development is surely having friends in city hall planning departments. I am sure that not everyone is corrupt, but enriching oneself by using government contacts is not unknown. It is part of why the Donald has such empathy for Putin's kleptocratic oligarchy.
    True - on the structure of real estate deals.

    One thing about this country, that is interesting, is the lack of corruption. You can become a millionaire overnight, by getting planning permission to build on a field anywhere within 100 miles of London. Yet planning officers are *nearly* always not for sale. In many other places I have visited, they would be all driving Ferraris.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    Roger said:

    ........His lifelong training was in real estate, an area in which there is rarely such thing as a win-win deal: the more you get, the more I pay.

    He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying

    His lifelong training is not in real estate as in buy/sell an existing property, which is a zero sum game most of the time as you indicate, but in real estate development, which should nearly always be a win-win proposition. So the basis of this comment is entirely wrong.
    The key to successful real-estate development is surely having friends in city hall planning departments. I am sure that not everyone is corrupt, but enriching oneself by using government contacts is not unknown. It is part of why the Donald has such empathy for Putin's kleptocratic oligarchy.
    My point is that a real estate transaction is haggling over the price in a transfer of ownership, whereas real estate development is about wealth creation. These are fundamentally different processes.

    I am not sure why you felt obliged to introduce corruption into it. It is irrelevant to the point being made.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017

    MTimT said:

    Roger said:

    ........His lifelong training was in real estate, an area in which there is rarely such thing as a win-win deal: the more you get, the more I pay.

    He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying

    His lifelong training is not in real estate as in buy/sell an existing property, which is a zero sum game most of the time as you indicate, but in real estate development, which should nearly always be a win-win proposition. So the basis of this comment is entirely wrong.
    The key to successful real-estate development is surely having friends in city hall planning departments. I am sure that not everyone is corrupt, but enriching oneself by using government contacts is not unknown. It is part of why the Donald has such empathy for Putin's kleptocratic oligarchy.
    Another outing for the lazy old cliché that developers rely on bent decision makers in local authorities. In my 30 years of trying to get planning approvals for clients I have yet to come across a single scrap of evidence that this goes on. Anyone involved in the system will tell you how difficult it is to get consent, indeed successive Governments have striven to simplify the process so that the country can build the houses it so badly needs.

    Because of the widespread misconception that planning is corrupt, as cheerfully and glibly espoused yet again by Dr Fox, most officials understandably go out of their way to apply policies to the letter so they are above suspicion. This of course serves to make the situation worse.

    But then what do facts matter these days?

    Good morning all. I think this is part and parcel of the corrosion of public trust in our politicians and institutions. I'm sure there is some level of corruption in the planning process; even if it s essentially tacit ( e.g. what roles do people take on once they've left public service). I'm equally sure that it's nowhere near as high as some intimate.

    It's a pity that so many think we're living in a Banana Republic. The last index of corruption that I saw placed the UK at #10 globally. For comparison, France was #23.

    In terms of David's header, I agree that Labour has a mountain to climb in terms of internal party managment ( and reconciliation!), but this is as nothing compared to the difficulties it faces in reconciling the two wings of its base in the electorate at large.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Morning all.

    Cheers Mr Herdson, not sure your prediction of an early Corbyn departure is likely imho, unless for some reason he decides to do so voluntarily. As we’ve seen with the no confidence vote and mass resignations, the signs are that he will cling on like a limpet to a rock till after the next election.

    And why shouldn't he.

    He slaughtered the very brightest and best the parliamentary Labour party had to offer - a one Mr Owen Smith.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    Roger said:

    ........His lifelong training was in real estate, an area in which there is rarely such thing as a win-win deal: the more you get, the more I pay.

    He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying

    His lifelong training is not in real estate as in buy/sell an existing property, which is a zero sum game most of the time as you indicate, but in real estate development, which should nearly always be a win-win proposition. So the basis of this comment is entirely wrong.
    The key to successful real-estate development is surely having friends in city hall planning departments. I am sure that not everyone is corrupt, but enriching oneself by using government contacts is not unknown. It is part of why the Donald has such empathy for Putin's kleptocratic oligarchy.
    My point is that a real estate transaction is haggling over the price in a transfer of ownership, whereas real estate development is about wealth creation. These are fundamentally different processes.

    I am not sure why you felt obliged to introduce corruption into it. It is irrelevant to the point being made.
    New York's real estate market is famously corrupt. As an aside, it is a "negative" corruption - in the sense that if you pay the "squeeze" all you get is the right to build the building you should have had the right to build anyway. If you don't pay (the politicians etc etc), then you get stuffed.

    Which would give the life lesson that everyone is on the take, they can all be bought and crude threats and bluster (combined with a smaller amount than they originally demanded) can make them back off... Hmmmmmmm...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Pulpstar said:

    Morning all.

    Cheers Mr Herdson, not sure your prediction of an early Corbyn departure is likely imho, unless for some reason he decides to do so voluntarily. As we’ve seen with the no confidence vote and mass resignations, the signs are that he will cling on like a limpet to a rock till after the next election.

    And why shouldn't he.

    He slaughtered the very brightest and best the parliamentary Labour party had to offer - a one Mr Owen Smith.
    Who?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Morning all.

    Cheers Mr Herdson, not sure your prediction of an early Corbyn departure is likely imho, unless for some reason he decides to do so voluntarily. As we’ve seen with the no confidence vote and mass resignations, the signs are that he will cling on like a limpet to a rock till after the next election.

    And why shouldn't he.

    He slaughtered the very brightest and best the parliamentary Labour party had to offer - a one Mr Owen Smith.
    Who?
    Tipped up for glory indeed by none other than Don Brind :>
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    The lead appears to argue simultaneously that Labour won't be replaced but that it might be?
  • My Planning experience is rusty but for what it's worth: Certainly there are no Brown Envelopes in UK planning decisions. The issue is the Military-Industrial Complex one. Planning Authorities have internal cultures which are either deeply hostile to or ludicrous pro developers. The Officer Corp at least and often elected members then push that at a cultural level. Every sinew of the system then tries to deliver that bias within the law. It's more Yes, Minster than bribery. Certainly the authority I was on was ruthlessly pro development. When I was on a planning panel the process was a wonder to behold. Every trick in Sir Humphrey's book was deployed to rail road through consents but it was never corruption.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Or it [the handholding] was spotanious and Trump thinks that's an appropriate way to behave to a guest and collegue in front of the world's media. In which case God help us. My instinct is it was the later. She did subliminally what almost all of us would do. Took the hand via social conditioning in the split second she liminally realised what a bizzare and inappropriate thing it was and how it would look.

    If you look closely at the picture it is closer to offering an arm to someone not holding hands. And *May* has adopted the male role, on the left with her hand underneath and providing a support to Trump.

    If I was helping my wife down some stairs we might well have a very similar posture.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    A very interesting piece, Mr. Herdson. There could be a surprisingly swift return to discipline, though.

    The PLP was very united (albeit against Corbyn). Labour has a history of sheep-like obedience/strong discipline and I'm sure many would really like to return to that (which requires having a leader worthy of the name).

    The counter-argument is when Alexander died. The genuine, then notional, support for his heir gradually slipped away until there was nothing there at all.
  • Appalling expectations management. < Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/28/stop-brexit-campaign-biggest-uk-biggest-protest-march?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    On topic, David Herdson correctly identifies a major problem for Labour that is under-discussed.

    The next leader can reassert authority only if he or she has conspicuously played by the conventional rules: leadership by example isn't the main thing. It's the only thing.

    One of the other weappons of the leadership and whips is the promise of patronage and preferment. Corbyns problem is that is seen as a bullet to be dodged. His MPs prefer to keep their distance on the backbenches.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Morning all.

    Cheers Mr Herdson, not sure your prediction of an early Corbyn departure is likely imho, unless for some reason he decides to do so voluntarily. As we’ve seen with the no confidence vote and mass resignations, the signs are that he will cling on like a limpet to a rock till after the next election.

    He might well. I think Labour has one more serious chance to displace him, probably next year when there's no risk of an election, when more evidence is in about his failure in and unsuitability for the job and when parliament is more than half way through with minds really focussing on the next election. The crucial voters will be people like NickP: not hard core leftwingers but people who felt Corbyn was first worth a go and then - last year - hadn't been given a chance. There are enough of them to swing an election, providing that his opponents nominate a heavyweight this time.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Jonathan said:

    Some of this is overblown. The Lib send are still in a far worse place than Labour. UKIP are yet to win in their own right.

    I did say pretty much that myself in the prepenultimate paragraph. What Labour can't rely on is that state of affairs lasting indefinitely.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Morning all.

    Cheers Mr Herdson, not sure your prediction of an early Corbyn departure is likely imho, unless for some reason he decides to do so voluntarily. As we’ve seen with the no confidence vote and mass resignations, the signs are that he will cling on like a limpet to a rock till after the next election.

    He might well. I think Labour has one more serious chance to displace him, probably next year when there's no risk of an election, when more evidence is in about his failure in and unsuitability for the job and when parliament is more than half way through with minds really focussing on the next election. The crucial voters will be people like NickP: not hard core leftwingers but people who felt Corbyn was first worth a go and then - last year - hadn't been given a chance. There are enough of them to swing an election, providing that his opponents nominate a heavyweight this time.
    I don't think you can top Owen Smith.
  • @Charles I was basing my comments on having watched the video footage several times. Clearly we don't agree. Though I accept it's a matter of opinion not fact.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Pulpstar said:

    Morning all.

    Cheers Mr Herdson, not sure your prediction of an early Corbyn departure is likely imho, unless for some reason he decides to do so voluntarily. As we’ve seen with the no confidence vote and mass resignations, the signs are that he will cling on like a limpet to a rock till after the next election.

    He might well. I think Labour has one more serious chance to displace him, probably next year when there's no risk of an election, when more evidence is in about his failure in and unsuitability for the job and when parliament is more than half way through with minds really focussing on the next election. The crucial voters will be people like NickP: not hard core leftwingers but people who felt Corbyn was first worth a go and then - last year - hadn't been given a chance. There are enough of them to swing an election, providing that his opponents nominate a heavyweight this time.
    I don't think you can top Owen Smith.
    NP has stated he is loyal. He will still be in the trenches with Corbyn come what may.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    edited January 2017
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited January 2017
    I've been a bit surprised by the anti-Corbyn vitriol I've seen from my formerly pro-Corbyn facebook friends (I made a lot of lefty friends when going to see loads of live music when I lived in london). They're livid over his A50 position; their desperation to stay in the EU triumphs even their love for a "proper" socialist. He can probably win most of them back by not backing it in the end, or if he does manage some meaningful amendments, but I suspect that some of his most ardent supporters are lost for good
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Pulpstar said:

    Morning all.

    Cheers Mr Herdson, not sure your prediction of an early Corbyn departure is likely imho, unless for some reason he decides to do so voluntarily. As we’ve seen with the no confidence vote and mass resignations, the signs are that he will cling on like a limpet to a rock till after the next election.

    And why shouldn't he.

    He slaughtered the very brightest and best the parliamentary Labour party had to offer - a one Mr Owen Smith.
    It was Brown who did the most damage to Labour IMHO
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Appalling expectations management. < Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/28/stop-brexit-campaign-biggest-uk-biggest-protest-march?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    Agreed - 17m + is quite a high target to beat :)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm still trying to work out who replaces Jeremy Corbyn if he were suddenly ousted. I hope the Parliamentary Labour Party has given that more advance thought than it managed last summer.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    Roger said:

    ........His lifelong training was in real estate, an area in which there is rarely such thing as a win-win deal: the more you get, the more I pay.

    He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying

    His lifelong training is not in real estate as in buy/sell an existing property, which is a zero sum game most of the time as you indicate, but in real estate development, which should nearly always be a win-win proposition. So the basis of this comment is entirely wrong.
    The key to successful real-estate development is surely having friends in city hall planning departments. I am sure that not everyone is corrupt, but enriching oneself by using government contacts is not unknown. It is part of why the Donald has such empathy for Putin's kleptocratic oligarchy.
    My point is that a real estate transaction is haggling over the price in a transfer of ownership, whereas real estate development is about wealth creation. These are fundamentally different processes.

    I am not sure why you felt obliged to introduce corruption into it. It is irrelevant to the point being made.
    New York's real estate market is famously corrupt. As an aside, it is a "negative" corruption - in the sense that if you pay the "squeeze" all you get is the right to build the building you should have had the right to build anyway. If you don't pay (the politicians etc etc), then you get stuffed.

    Which would give the life lesson that everyone is on the take, they can all be bought and crude threats and bluster (combined with a smaller amount than they originally demanded) can make them back off... Hmmmmmmm...
    Yes, this is the sort of things that I had in mind. I have a patient who is a retired builder who tells tales of rather more interesting planning applications, by his rivals. How true these stories are, I cannot say.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I have to say that my encounters with the planning regime have usually left me with the strong impression that the council officers were on the take. But perhaps Yellow Submarine's explanation is right.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I'm still trying to work out who replaces Jeremy Corbyn if he were suddenly ousted. I hope the Parliamentary Labour Party has given that more advance thought than it managed last summer.

    Surely Tom Watson as Deputy steps up?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited January 2017

    I'm still trying to work out who replaces Jeremy Corbyn if he were suddenly ousted. I hope the Parliamentary Labour Party has given that more advance thought than it managed last summer.

    Hilary Benn would be the smart choice. I don't believe any of the others have a chance of winning an election in 2020. If it was the MPs who chose I think he'd win
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Jonathan said:

    Some of this is overblown. The Lib send are still in a far worse place than Labour. UKIP are yet to win in their own right.

    Nah. We know where the Lib Dems stand.

    Labour only seem happy to stand on the sidelines, rudderless, without a leader or any real direction.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited January 2017
    Mr Submarine,

    "Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march."

    Oh, goody. An anti-democracy march. That'll probably be a first for the UK. The hangers-on will guarantee some structural damage. Should be fun. It'll be interesting to read the placards.

    Edit: What do you call a couple of million snowflakes on the street?
    A blizzard.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited January 2017

    MTimT said:

    Roger said:

    ........His lifelong training was in real estate, an area in which there is rarely such thing as a win-win deal: the more you get, the more I pay.

    He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying

    His lifelong training is not in real estate as in buy/sell an existing property, which is a zero sum game most of the time as you indicate, but in real estate development, which should nearly always be a win-win proposition. So the basis of this comment is entirely wrong.
    The key to successful real-estate development is surely having friends in city hall planning departments. I am sure that not everyone is corrupt, but enriching oneself by using government contacts is not unknown. It is part of why the Donald has such empathy for Putin's kleptocratic oligarchy.
    Another outing for the lazy old cliché that developers rely on bent decision makers in local authorities. In my 30 years of trying to get planning approvals for clients I have yet to come across a single scrap of evidence that this goes on. Anyone involved in the system will tell you how difficult it is to get consent, indeed successive Governments have striven to simplify the process so that the country can build the houses it so badly needs.

    Because of the widespread misconception that planning is corrupt, as cheerfully and glibly espoused yet again by Dr Fox, most officials understandably go out of their way to apply policies to the letter so they are above suspicion. This of course serves to make the situation worse.

    But then what do facts matter these days?

    I've seen it happen, but very rarely. More insidious is failure, wilful or otherwise, to follow up on planning conditions -s.106 obligations stand out here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2017

    I'm still trying to work out who replaces Jeremy Corbyn if he were suddenly ousted. I hope the Parliamentary Labour Party has given that more advance thought than it managed last summer.

    Surely Tom Watson as Deputy steps up?
    Well he has a lot more time on his hands now that he isnt running around falsely accusing loads of Tory politicians of being paedos morning, noon and night.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. CD13, not sure it's the first. There were protests a week or two after the 2015 General Election.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited January 2017
    CD13 said:

    Mr Submarine,

    "Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march."

    Oh, goody. An anti-democracy march. That'll probably be a first for the UK. The hangers-on will guarantee some structural damage. Should be fun. It'll be interesting to read the placards.

    You could as easily call the anti Iraq invasion march 'anti democratic' in that it had been voted on in parliament. A march hopes to move public opinion. Nothing wrong with that. In a democracy nothing should be set in stone
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    CD13 said:

    Mr Submarine,

    "Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march."

    Oh, goody. An anti-democracy march. That'll probably be a first for the UK. The hangers-on will guarantee some structural damage. Should be fun. It'll be interesting to read the placards.

    Edit: What do you call a couple of million snowflakes on the street?
    A blizzard.

    People have a right to march. I support them doing so. I just hope it's a peaceful, non-destructive march.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited January 2017
    Roger said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Submarine,

    "Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march."

    Oh, goody. An anti-democracy march. That'll probably be a first for the UK. The hangers-on will guarantee some structural damage. Should be fun. It'll be interesting to read the placards.

    You could as easily call the anti Iraq invasion 'anti democratic' in that it had been voted on in parliament. A march hopes to move public opinion. Nothing wrong with that. In a democracy nothing should be set in stone
    If they were clever about it (big ask) they would all have the same message on their placards and given the current mood it would best not be about immigration.

    1m people carrying banners saying "Yes to the Single Market", for example, might nudge some people's Brexitometer.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    matt said:

    MTimT said:

    Roger said:

    ........His lifelong training was in real estate, an area in which there is rarely such thing as a win-win deal: the more you get, the more I pay.

    He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying

    His lifelong training is not in real estate as in buy/sell an existing property, which is a zero sum game most of the time as you indicate, but in real estate development, which should nearly always be a win-win proposition. So the basis of this comment is entirely wrong.
    The key to successful real-estate development is surely having friends in city hall planning departments. I am sure that not everyone is corrupt, but enriching oneself by using government contacts is not unknown. It is part of why the Donald has such empathy for Putin's kleptocratic oligarchy.
    Another outing for the lazy old cliché that developers rely on bent decision makers in local authorities. In my 30 years of trying to get planning approvals for clients I have yet to come across a single scrap of evidence that this goes on. Anyone involved in the system will tell you how difficult it is to get consent, indeed successive Governments have striven to simplify the process so that the country can build the houses it so badly needs.

    Because of the widespread misconception that planning is corrupt, as cheerfully and glibly espoused yet again by Dr Fox, most officials understandably go out of their way to apply policies to the letter so they are above suspicion. This of course serves to make the situation worse.

    But then what do facts matter these days?

    I've seen it happen, but very rarely. More insidious is failure, wilful or otherwise, to follow up on planning conditions -s.106 obligations stand out here.
    Lack of resources in planning authorities. Government thinks that starving local government of funding will somehow prevent them from stifling growth. In fact the opposite is true.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Roger, not even control on immigration?

    https://twitter.com/M1keRavenscroft/status/821773985151143940
  • @CD13 To very briefly take that seriously peaceful protest is part of democracy. But baring an Act of God I expect A50 to have been invoked by the date of the march. In many way it will be healthy if it has. How europeanism and the reunion movement transitions from defence of the status quo to counter cultural movement will be fascinating. Theresa is being enormously helpful here. Brexit is already government policy and now she's following Nigel and explicitly linking it to the Trump project. The obvious parallels are the growth of the global green movement and the anti poverty campaigns in the decades after Live Aid. It will be very shallow at first but tributaries of great rivers often are. So I expect that first post A50 march will be shorter than the queues at Dover after we leave the Customs Union.
  • The MSM aren't doing themselves any favours with their battle against Fake News...

    A viral Washington Post story about State Department resignations is very misleading

    http://www.vox.com/world/2017/1/27/14405542/washington-post-state-department-resignations
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    I've been a bit surprised by the anti-Corbyn vitriol I've seen from my formerly pro-Corbyn facebook friends (I made a lot of lefty friends when going to see loads of live music when I lived in london). They're livid over his A50 position; their desperation to stay in the EU triumphs even their love for a "proper" socialist. He can probably win most of them back by not backing it in the end, or if he does manage some meaningful amendments, but I suspect that some of his most ardent supporters are lost for good

    It would be impossible to invent a more strategically inept leader. He can't even keep his own disciples onside. His three line whip was so stupid even Nick P must be having doubts.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited January 2017
    Mr Roger,

    "You could as easily call the anti Iraq invasion 'anti democratic' in that it had been voted on in parliament."

    Did I miss the referendum about it? Just shows that MP s aren't as clever as they suppose.

    They're welcome to protest, but protesting about a democratic vote by the people seems a little odd. Well, it does to me.

    And those placards? No votes for people we disagree with? Stop the oldies voting?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Submarine,

    "Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march."

    Oh, goody. An anti-democracy march. That'll probably be a first for the UK. The hangers-on will guarantee some structural damage. Should be fun. It'll be interesting to read the placards.

    You could as easily call the anti Iraq invasion 'anti democratic' in that it had been voted on in parliament. A march hopes to move public opinion. Nothing wrong with that. In a democracy nothing should be set in stone
    If they were clever about it (big ask) they would all have the same message on their placards and given the current mood it would best not be about immigration.

    1m people carrying banners saying "Yes to the Single Market", for example, might nudge some people's Brexitometer.
    Given 17 million voted Leave unlikely
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Submarine,

    "Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march."

    Oh, goody. An anti-democracy march. That'll probably be a first for the UK. The hangers-on will guarantee some structural damage. Should be fun. It'll be interesting to read the placards.

    You could as easily call the anti Iraq invasion 'anti democratic' in that it had been voted on in parliament. A march hopes to move public opinion. Nothing wrong with that. In a democracy nothing should be set in stone
    If they were clever about it (big ask) they would all have the same message on their placards and given the current mood it would best not be about immigration.

    1m people carrying banners saying "Yes to the Single Market", for example, might nudge some people's Brexitometer.
    Given 17 million voted Leave unlikely
    Did you read my comment?

    "Some people's Brexitometer."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    I've been a bit surprised by the anti-Corbyn vitriol I've seen from my formerly pro-Corbyn facebook friends (I made a lot of lefty friends when going to see loads of live music when I lived in london). They're livid over his A50 position; their desperation to stay in the EU triumphs even their love for a "proper" socialist. He can probably win most of them back by not backing it in the end, or if he does manage some meaningful amendments, but I suspect that some of his most ardent supporters are lost for good

    Corbyn was re elected by Labour members by a landslide even after the Brexit vote and his lacklustre support for Remain
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr Topping.

    You're right.

    Placards reading "Yes to the Common Market, No to the EU." would work well.
  • I was watching Bill Maher last night, I know I know, and they were obviously blasting Trump for all his lies and nonsense, but they stated no voter fraud, well maybe minuscule, and it struck me are the media falling into a big elephant trap....

    I don't believe for a second the nonsense Trump is saying, and the counter is always well there has only been something in the order of 10's of proved cases.

    However, the reality is probably that in a massive country like US, even with more checks and balances when you got to vote than here, that there is some underlying level of dodgy voting going on.

    But the immediate OTT reaction against Trump's claims and continually stating there is NO voter fraud means if he manages to find some small level, he will be able to claim see I told you so, fake media at it again and now we need to put in place all these extra checks which many claim reduces Democrat leaning voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Roger said:

    Europe 1-UK 0

    Despite some very nifty footwork by Theresa May a defeat was always the most likely result. The 'hand of God' which did for England all those years ago has just done it again. The Europeans kept their distance and their dignity. We didn't. Being photographed hand in hand was the moment the world cringed. Here we were friendless clinging on for dear life to a President with the international respect of a dung beetle.

    No. Having a positive relationship with the moat powerful man in the world is far more important than aligning with EU PC views
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Appalling expectations management. < Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/28/stop-brexit-campaign-biggest-uk-biggest-protest-march?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    It's going to require a vast number of nannies following that march, to put all those toys back in their prams.

    How many of this vast multitude of protesters will have delivered leaflets for Remain, I wonder? Putting in the footwork when it might have made a difference.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Roger said:

    Europe 1-UK 0

    Despite some very nifty footwork by Theresa May a defeat was always the most likely result. The 'hand of God' which did for England all those years ago has just done it again. The Europeans kept their distance and their dignity. We didn't. Being photographed hand in hand was the moment the world cringed. Here we were friendless clinging on for dear life to a President with the international respect of a dung beetle.

    @Roger I'm inclined to agree. Now she holds the hand that grabbed the pussy. The world's varying power centre's will have been unable to believe it at first. The imagery* is so extraordinary. Which isn't to deny how well May did in key respects. In other circumstances it would have been a strong performance from a new PM. But these aren't other circumstances. And May has now not only owned but is amplifying this ludicrous new national indeed international narrative. It's like a rapidly rising stock market bubble. You can enjoy it while it lasts but they always burst. The actual reality of our Brexit position is so far detatched from what the Anglospherists fantasists are now churny out the bubble popping is going to be very painful indeed. Let's just hunker down and wait.

    Conclusion: May did very well.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Morning all.

    Cheers Mr Herdson, not sure your prediction of an early Corbyn departure is likely imho, unless for some reason he decides to do so voluntarily. As we’ve seen with the no confidence vote and mass resignations, the signs are that he will cling on like a limpet to a rock till after the next election.

    He might well. I think Labour has one more serious chance to displace him, probably next year when there's no risk of an election, when more evidence is in about his failure in and unsuitability for the job and when parliament is more than half way through with minds really focussing on the next election. The crucial voters will be people like NickP: not hard core leftwingers but people who felt Corbyn was first worth a go and then - last year - hadn't been given a chance. There are enough of them to swing an election, providing that his opponents nominate a heavyweight this time.
    I'm a bad example as personal loyalty and a degree of identification (ascetic politics with no personal abuse is so damn rare) are decisive factors for me. If he were to leave voluntarily at some stage I'd look open-mindedly at alternatives, but I'll be no part of any insurrection. That doesn't apply to everyone on the moderate left of the party, but I think the general view is that the experiment of a radical left-wing approach, which by no means is exclusively a UK phenomenon, needs to run its course to the next election.

    I'm of course an example of archetypal whip discipline - I revolted 35 times in 13 years, which isn't a lot, about 3 times a year although there are several votes every day. I accept David's general thesis as a starting point - both government and, more subtly, opposition only work well if there is a coherent approach. I think it's reasonable to argue your corner, try to get compromises and then give your party the benefit of any doubt. The exception is if you really care about something and/or your constituents do, and a problem is that Brexit is such a gut issue for many (both ways) that it does feel like a case where exceptions are called for. It works both ways - I kmow a prominent MP for a Leave-voting patch, an arch-critic of Corbyn, who admires his A50 3-line whip and thinks it shows genuine gutsy respect for constituents who voted Leave. It's on a basis of "OK, I will say he did well on this" rather than "I now think he's great" but it's progress in reducing the level of hostility. Equally I know people like Roger who are utterly appalled.

    On corruption, I also think the system is largely bribe-free: it used not to be, with lots of famous scandals, but they seem to have been successfully squeezed out. Many planning officials do of course retain personal inclinations - some like to be helpful, some like to resist. They're, um, human. On the whole, if consuilted in advance, they try to help.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Submarine,

    "Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march."

    Oh, goody. An anti-democracy march. That'll probably be a first for the UK. The hangers-on will guarantee some structural damage. Should be fun. It'll be interesting to read the placards.

    You could as easily call the anti Iraq invasion 'anti democratic' in that it had been voted on in parliament. A march hopes to move public opinion. Nothing wrong with that. In a democracy nothing should be set in stone
    If they were clever about it (big ask) they would all have the same message on their placards and given the current mood it would best not be about immigration.

    1m people carrying banners saying "Yes to the Single Market", for example, might nudge some people's Brexitometer.
    Given 17 million voted Leave unlikely
    Did you read my comment?

    "Some people's Brexitometer."
    CD13 said:

    Mr Topping.

    You're right.

    Placards reading "Yes to the Common Market, No to the EU." would work well.

    Agree. The EEA/EFTA model. It's a big ask but I agree people could register their support for it.

    ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2017
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Submarine,

    "Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march."

    Oh, goody. An anti-democracy march. That'll probably be a first for the UK. The hangers-on will guarantee some structural damage. Should be fun. It'll be interesting to read the placards.

    You could as easily call the anti Iraq invasion 'anti democratic' in that it had been voted on in parliament. A march hopes to move public opinion. Nothing wrong with that. In a democracy nothing should be set in stone
    If they were clever about it (big ask) they would all have the same message on their placards and given the current mood it would best not be about immigration.

    1m people carrying banners saying "Yes to the Single Market", for example, might nudge some people's Brexitometer.
    Given 17 million voted Leave unlikely
    Did you read my comment?

    "Some people's Brexitometer."
    Nick Clegg and Tim Farron's probably. If successful it might even top those other highly successful marches against the Iraq War and the ban on fox hunting
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    HYUFD said:

    I've been a bit surprised by the anti-Corbyn vitriol I've seen from my formerly pro-Corbyn facebook friends (I made a lot of lefty friends when going to see loads of live music when I lived in london). They're livid over his A50 position; their desperation to stay in the EU triumphs even their love for a "proper" socialist. He can probably win most of them back by not backing it in the end, or if he does manage some meaningful amendments, but I suspect that some of his most ardent supporters are lost for good

    Corbyn was re elected by Labour members by a landslide even after the Brexit vote and his lacklustre support for Remain
    But it's only in the last few days that I've seen posts like this from some previously firm supporters-

    "Well what a fucking rat bag that Corbyn turned out to be eh? I thought the reason for the opposition was to oppose the Government! Maybe I was just being naive, anyway to hell with him.... Just another appeaser in the end!"

    This can't be good for him
  • HYUFD said:

    I've been a bit surprised by the anti-Corbyn vitriol I've seen from my formerly pro-Corbyn facebook friends (I made a lot of lefty friends when going to see loads of live music when I lived in london). They're livid over his A50 position; their desperation to stay in the EU triumphs even their love for a "proper" socialist. He can probably win most of them back by not backing it in the end, or if he does manage some meaningful amendments, but I suspect that some of his most ardent supporters are lost for good

    Corbyn was re elected by Labour members by a landslide even after the Brexit vote and his lacklustre support for Remain
    But it's only in the last few days that I've seen posts like this from some previously firm supporters-

    "Well what a fucking rat bag that Corbyn turned out to be eh? I thought the reason for the opposition was to oppose the Government! Maybe I was just being naive, anyway to hell with him.... Just another appeaser in the end!"

    This can't be good for him
    Shall I put them down as a maybe?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    I have to say that my encounters with the planning regime have usually left me with the strong impression that the council officers were on the take. But perhaps Yellow Submarine's explanation is right.

    I did once administer an estate, and gradually discovered that the deceased building control officer had made his money by passing sub-standard blocks of flats in return for kickbacks. I have no idea how widespread this might be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    I've been a bit surprised by the anti-Corbyn vitriol I've seen from my formerly pro-Corbyn facebook friends (I made a lot of lefty friends when going to see loads of live music when I lived in london). They're livid over his A50 position; their desperation to stay in the EU triumphs even their love for a "proper" socialist. He can probably win most of them back by not backing it in the end, or if he does manage some meaningful amendments, but I suspect that some of his most ardent supporters are lost for good

    Corbyn was re elected by Labour members by a landslide even after the Brexit vote and his lacklustre support for Remain
    But it's only in the last few days that I've seen posts like this from some previously firm supporters-

    "Well what a fucking rat bag that Corbyn turned out to be eh? I thought the reason for the opposition was to oppose the Government! Maybe I was just being naive, anyway to hell with him.... Just another appeaser in the end!"

    This can't be good for him
    They knew Smith was the pro EU candidate in September and still comfortably re elected Corbyn
  • Roger said:

    I'm still trying to work out who replaces Jeremy Corbyn if he were suddenly ousted. I hope the Parliamentary Labour Party has given that more advance thought than it managed last summer.

    Hilary Benn would be the smart choice. I don't believe any of the others have a chance of winning an election in 2020. If it was the MPs who chose I think he'd win
    The membership - who vote on the Leader - would reject Benn out of hand.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    @CD13 To very briefly take that seriously peaceful protest is part of democracy. But baring an Act of God I expect A50 to have been invoked by the date of the march. In many way it will be healthy if it has. How europeanism and the reunion movement transitions from defence of the status quo to counter cultural movement will be fascinating.

    The Rejoin campaign will face the following obstacles, amongst others:

    (1) Status quo bias
    (2) Lack of European identity in the UK
    (3) Requirement to join the euro
    (4) Requirement to join Schengen

  • Interesting article.

    But I wonder if Corbyn has actually been so awful that it may actually help his successor maintain discipline. Corbyn and his team don't have any understanding that the leader's role is to set out what a Labour Government would do, rather than regurgitating half formed opinions soaked up from much cleverer people in 1984, and for that you need to agree a programme to do that. Frontbenchers routinely find out about new proposals or groups in their policy area mid-interview, while backbenchers are testily ordered to do what Corbyn says, not what he did for 30 years, or to suffer Momentum retaliation.

    Anything bringing a degree of order, stability and normality after that will be embraced hungrily. And it is fairly likely that whoever comes in will be particularly attentive to those aspects, as it's been so bitter and agonising - even for many MPs traditionally quite close to Corbyn on the ideological aspects.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I've been a bit surprised by the anti-Corbyn vitriol I've seen from my formerly pro-Corbyn facebook friends (I made a lot of lefty friends when going to see loads of live music when I lived in london). They're livid over his A50 position; their desperation to stay in the EU triumphs even their love for a "proper" socialist. He can probably win most of them back by not backing it in the end, or if he does manage some meaningful amendments, but I suspect that some of his most ardent supporters are lost for good

    Corbyn was re elected by Labour members by a landslide even after the Brexit vote and his lacklustre support for Remain
    But it's only in the last few days that I've seen posts like this from some previously firm supporters-

    "Well what a fucking rat bag that Corbyn turned out to be eh? I thought the reason for the opposition was to oppose the Government! Maybe I was just being naive, anyway to hell with him.... Just another appeaser in the end!"

    This can't be good for him
    They knew Smith was the pro EU candidate in September and still comfortably re elected Corbyn
    Perhaps they believed him when he said he voted Remain?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Submarine,

    "Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march."

    Oh, goody. An anti-democracy march. That'll probably be a first for the UK. The hangers-on will guarantee some structural damage. Should be fun. It'll be interesting to read the placards.

    Edit: What do you call a couple of million snowflakes on the street?
    A blizzard.

    People have a right to march. I support them doing so. I just hope it's a peaceful, non-destructive march.
    The pro-life marches in US were very civilised/didn't leave tons of litter either - and barely got a blink of TV coverage compared to rest - it just doesn't fit with the anti-Trump/liberal agenda.
  • TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Submarine,

    "Anti-Brexit campaigners aim to stage UK's biggest protest march."

    Oh, goody. An anti-democracy march. That'll probably be a first for the UK. The hangers-on will guarantee some structural damage. Should be fun. It'll be interesting to read the placards.

    You could as easily call the anti Iraq invasion 'anti democratic' in that it had been voted on in parliament. A march hopes to move public opinion. Nothing wrong with that. In a democracy nothing should be set in stone
    If they were clever about it (big ask) they would all have the same message on their placards and given the current mood it would best not be about immigration.

    1m people carrying banners saying "Yes to the Single Market", for example, might nudge some people's Brexitometer.
    The thing is that you know that is not what would be seen. Just like all the marches we have had so far, any march over Brexit will be dominated by one overriding message. The march you suggest will be overwhelmed by blue flags with gold stars on them. It will be a march in favour of the EU and against Brexit even if that is not what many people are actually marching for. It will simply be seen as discontents trying to overturn the result of the referendum.

    And in all probability that will also be what the overwhelming percentage of people on the march will want.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    I was watching Bill Maher last night, I know I know, and they were obviously blasting Trump for all his lies and nonsense, but they stated no voter fraud, well maybe minuscule, and it struck me are the media falling into a big elephant trap....

    I don't believe for a second the nonsense Trump is saying, and the counter is always well there has only been something in the order of 10's of proved cases.

    However, the reality is probably that in a massive country like US, even with more checks and balances when you got to vote than here, that there is some underlying level of dodgy voting going on.

    But the immediate OTT reaction against Trump's claims and continually stating there is NO voter fraud means if he manages to find some small level, he will be able to claim see I told you so, fake media at it again and now we need to put in place all these extra checks which many claim reduces Democrat leaning voters.

    I would guess at least 0.1% of votes are improper, due to people being on the register when ineligible or registered improperly. 1 in 1,000 is a very low error rate for processing paper forms, it could be considerably higher than that. So that's 128,000 dodgy votes to be found straight away, now those might not be "fraudulent" but then Trump will have moved the debate on to semantic arguments and won the numbers game.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited January 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Europe 1-UK 0

    Despite some very nifty footwork by Theresa May a defeat was always the most likely result. The 'hand of God' which did for England all those years ago has just done it again. The Europeans kept their distance and their dignity. We didn't. Being photographed hand in hand was the moment the world cringed. Here we were friendless clinging on for dear life to a President with the international respect of a dung beetle.

    No. Having a positive relationship with the moat powerful man in the world is far more important than aligning with EU PC views
    I assume you were one of those capering, wee diddies that hung around the big boys in the playground.
  • To add to my previous comment, being a rebel under Major looks like it was a lot of fun (for all the damage it did). Major's "bastards" very often had a huge smile on their faces and seemed to be having a lovely time. That's the very opposite of the case, with a couple of exceptions, for the Labour rebels - they always look as if they are in hell.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    The results of the by-elections on 23/2/17 are likely to have a significant impact on Labour's prospects in the next 1-2 years. Hopefully, both seats will be held by Labour, but if either are lost, the pressure on Corbyn will increase. Copeland seems to be the seat most at risk. Loss of Stoke Central would be a political earthquake.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited January 2017
    daodao said:

    The results of the by-elections on 23/2/17 are likely to have a significant impact on Labour's prospects in the next 1-2 years. Hopefully, both seats will be held by Labour, but if either are lost, the pressure on Corbyn will increase. Copeland seems to be the seat most at risk. Loss of Stoke Central would be a political earthquake.

    Lol it'd cost the bettors I know here mostly :)_

    And myself :open_mouth:
  • I've been a bit surprised by the anti-Corbyn vitriol I've seen from my formerly pro-Corbyn facebook friends (I made a lot of lefty friends when going to see loads of live music when I lived in london). They're livid over his A50 position; their desperation to stay in the EU triumphs even their love for a "proper" socialist. He can probably win most of them back by not backing it in the end, or if he does manage some meaningful amendments, but I suspect that some of his most ardent supporters are lost for good

    As I've said on here a few times before, it's a big mistake to see Corbyn's support as monolithic. He won with a coalition of backers, only a few of whom are wedded to a hard left Labour takeover. When the end comes - as it will before 2020 - it will be relatively quick and union-inspired, with strong, more in sorrow than anger backing from Corbyn's erstwhile cheerleaders in the press.

    It's also pretty clear that by and large Corbynistas do not get involved in CLP issues. That's why the PLP will remain mainly soft rather than hard left. In terms of discipline, my sense is that MPs will be relieved to return to relative normality. A new leader will have the full CLP to choose from to fill shadow posts because he/she will not carry Corbyn's baggage. That will be immensely helpful to unity. The ongoing rebels will return to being the cabal of hard leftists who always did it.

    Then the really hard work will begin. Labour has wasted seven years, so far. Its aim at the next GE can only be to deny Ms May an overall majority and build from there. It'll take time, but with Corbyn gone it will be possible. The PM is now hand in hand with the US president. That will help.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr Submarine,

    "Now she holds the hand that grabbed the pussy."

    Now let me see ... Nixon went to China, Blair supped with Ghadafi, The Queen shook hands with McGuinness ... That is statesmanlike.

    But Trump is obviously far worse than those. Who does he rank with then? Hitler? Stalin?

    A touch of hyperbole, perhaps?
  • matt said:

    MTimT said:

    Roger said:

    ........His lifelong training was in real estate, an area in which there is rarely such thing as a win-win deal: the more you get, the more I pay.

    He will have seen May as that most desperate of creatures: the housebuyer who rashly sold her old house before she had found a new one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/never-mind-the-optics-theresa-mays-us-dash-was-mortifying

    His lifelong training is not in real estate as in buy/sell an existing property, which is a zero sum game most of the time as you indicate, but in real estate development, which should nearly always be a win-win proposition. So the basis of this comment is entirely wrong.
    The key to successful real-estate development is surely having friends in city hall planning departments. I am sure that not everyone is corrupt, but enriching oneself by using government contacts is not unknown. It is part of why the Donald has such empathy for Putin's kleptocratic oligarchy.
    Another outing for the lazy old cliché that developers rely on bent decision makers in local authorities. In my 30 years of trying to get planning approvals for clients I have yet to come across a single scrap of evidence that this goes on. Anyone involved in the system will tell you how difficult it is to get consent, indeed successive Governments have striven to simplify the process so that the country can build the houses it so badly needs.

    Because of the widespread misconception that planning is corrupt, as cheerfully and glibly espoused yet again by Dr Fox, most officials understandably go out of their way to apply policies to the letter so they are above suspicion. This of course serves to make the situation worse.

    But then what do facts matter these days?

    I've seen it happen, but very rarely. More insidious is failure, wilful or otherwise, to follow up on planning conditions -s.106 obligations stand out here.
    Slightly differently there are two high profile cases at the moment in Newark and Swindon where developers want to destroy listed buildings for the land and have sat on those buildings for years (2 decades in the case of Newark) allowing them to deteriorate and collapse whilst the council does nothing to enforce listed building regulations. They are then in a position where they can say that the buildings cannot be saved and with the connivance of the council they get demolished. It takes time but it works unfortunately if you have the right council.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    It's different times when the promoted takeaway from a UK PM's visit to Washington is that the US president is "100% behind NATO". Subtext, presumably: I persuaded him. In any case he didn't say he was 100% - he just didn't contradict May's statement to say he was. There's a difference.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    HYUFD said:

    I've been a bit surprised by the anti-Corbyn vitriol I've seen from my formerly pro-Corbyn facebook friends (I made a lot of lefty friends when going to see loads of live music when I lived in london). They're livid over his A50 position; their desperation to stay in the EU triumphs even their love for a "proper" socialist. He can probably win most of them back by not backing it in the end, or if he does manage some meaningful amendments, but I suspect that some of his most ardent supporters are lost for good

    Corbyn was re elected by Labour members by a landslide even after the Brexit vote and his lacklustre support for Remain
    True. Which is one measure of the scale of the task. But events ...

    For all the shambles he's presided over, there hasn't been a high-profile electoral one, yet. He's consistently outperformed expectations. That's not to say he's done well: he hasn't. Net losses in local elections is a good indicator that things are far from well. But he's always surpassed minium expectations. If that changes, Corbyn will be under a lot more pressure.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited January 2017
    .
This discussion has been closed.