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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories are looking to Copeland for endorsement of Mrs. May
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories are looking to Copeland for endorsement of Mrs. May’s plan for BREXIT
Last night a Copeland voter emailed the above copy of a personalised letter that had come to him from Theresa May. The contents are very revealing about what message the Tories are hoping will come from them taking the seat from LAB in 23 days time.
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It came as a surprise to be moved by a dart of pity at the sight of this world leader, a slight figure teetering up the steps of Government Buildings in her trademark kitten heels - gold this time - and which command breathless column inches in the British press.
Far from being the commanding, imperial captain of HMS Brexit, Mrs May had the miserable, gangly manner of a visitor who knows that she has come along with bad news and with a very poorly chosen gift, though is obliged to drop in anyway.
Best PM: +32 (+4)
Immigration: +13 (+3)
Laura Norder: +21 (+4)
Taxation: +10 (+4)
Economy: +20 (+4)
Brexit: +19 (+4)
This may of course be the plan...
(And if Labour don't hold Stoke, Corbyn is finished anyway.)
Corbyn couldn't organise an orgy in a brothel even if Messalina was taking part.
The big danger for Labour is that their supporters will be so disillusioned that they won't turn out at all, which is I think the only path to a Tory win.
Anything above 35% and Labour should hold.
It's the Tories that are hopelessly split and divided over Europe......at least that's what we've been told for the last 25 years......
Would a resignation by say, Richard Burgon be fatal?
It took an exceptional series of events and an exceptional politician (Alex Salmond) to destroy Labour in Scotland. And a North London idiot (Ed Miliband).
Labour will most likely hold both seats, though I expect Copeland will be very close.
Ukip way down.
Level of confidence in this prediction... Low.
However, to take the seat would make it the largest opposition majority overturned by a government at a by-election since well before WWII. Consequently, to not take it would not be the greatest disaster for the Tories.
I would agree with the good Dr @foxinsoxuk re a Labour hold. Or to put it another way, if the government can gain a seat despite the unfolding car crash that is Whitehaven Hospital then something has snapped in politics.
Of course the fact Corbyn has repeatedly threatened to throw everyone out of work may count against him somewhat. But that's not really a risk in this election, while humiliating the government just might make them back down on the other stuff.
Hence why I believe any turnout above 35% will see Labour hold.
This rumour has been circulating locally for a while. Now the company has confirmed publically.
A narrow defeat would serve their political interests far better - albeit not the country's.
The tipping point was 2011, when the SNP with a manifesto pledge of an IndyRef, took a majority in Holyrood. That was on Ed Miliband’s watch.
For sure, it had been building for some time. Decades really.
But, 2011 was when the spaceship crossed the event horizon with Hapless Ed in command.
They hold another leadership election less than six months after the last one?
I remember after Ed was elected, he went up to Scotland in 2011 and gave a radio interview when he couldn’t remember than names of the MSPs standing for leadership of SLAB.
I thought then that this braying North Londoner was likely to do a lot of damage in Scotland. So it turned out.
I expect Labour to lose both.
Instead of going through a process to persuade the AG and others that it is lawful, Trump immediately sacks the AG and replaces her with someone who immediately declares it lawful. In the meantime, Trump accuses the ex-AG of 'betrayal'.
This is deeply worrying. Even *if* Trump is right in this case, and the AG was wrong, he has set a precedent. He will feel free to do it again, and people will know that. Fewer people will stand up to him, including when they are definitely right.
The one thing that can excuse Corbyn's utter uselessness is that he is part of a process that has been going on for two decades - the hollowing out of Labour and its complete loss of touch with political reality.
Is he to prove Honorious, ignoring the collapse of the Empire as his supporters party (or in Gibbonian fiction, discuss the finer points of the Trinity)? Or is he Burnside? But if he is Burnside, who will emerge as Grant?
Just watched the BBC Storyville program on Stuxnet. Storyville is brilliant: documentaries from around the world. They are always compelling, even if the topic initially appears dull.
No, I'm not betting on it - just covering myself. Labour hold for me.
But - I don't know. I think Stoke is marginal more because of the poor qualities of Hunt than any other reason, and now Labour have a local candidate, I think that will trump the Uitlander Nuttall. And I would point out that that logic led me to predict a comfortable Tory hold in Gloucester by local Old Etonian and banker (and frankly, rather dull and not very intelligent) Richard Graham at a time everyone was swooning over the ex-wing commander, state-educated woman and all-round good thing Labour had put up, who had never been to Gloucester before selection.
The fact I believe both Copeland candidates are local does however somewhat negate that advantage there.
We might quickly get President Mike Pen...ah.
I was hoing Labour would lose to the Tories in Copeland to hasten Corbyn's departure. Not anymore. Our shared values are with the Europeans not the Americans but irrespective of Brexit May can't see that. I'm filing her under 'Maggie'
A PB NoJam on the pair would be interesting too.
You're fired.
Personally I think she'll step down in 2023 or thereabouts.....
"Before this showdown, Yates was actually asked by the Trump Administration to stay on duty until Senator Jeff Sessions could be confirmed by the Senate. In fact, Yates has held leadership positions in both Democratic and Republican administrations throughout her career."
"Sen. Johnny Isaakson (R-Georgia) said, in part:
“Sally is a great hero of the state of Georgia for 25 years she’s been in the office of Northern District of Georgia prosecuting criminal on public integrity all kind of things like the Olympic Park bombing. For the last five years, she’s been the chief attorney, and she’s proved herself over and over and over again to be to be effective to be fair to be diligent and to be the kind of person that you would want representing you in the U.S. Attorney’s office.. She is a lady of impeccable taste, impeccable integrity and an impeccable record, and I’m proud to second her nomination..”
"
After five years there will be a much more significant dent. People won't so easily be able to pick up and move on as an effective centre-left party*.
*Or as NPXMPX2 might say, a hard-right party.
Surely the correct person for the SCOTUs or AG is someone who knows the law and applies it fairly?
If the Conservatives win, Corbyn will be blamed. If they lose, some will raise this as a rejection of the EU situation.
http://ytimg.googleusercontent.com/vi/ygJUlbfgkpo/mqdefault.jpg
Call him out for what he is - an unpleasant man with repellent views more out of his depth than a todddler in the Mindanao Deep. Comparisons like that merely look silly and weaken your case.
He is also quite keen on doorstep campaigning, and not as out of line with Labour voters as some on here would opine.
He went to Keele University and lived in Newcastle where he was a councillor, double jobbing in Tristram Hunt’s constituency office as he waited to be parachuted in. As far back as five years ago the Stoke Sentinel ran a letter asking why outsider Snell was hanging round Stoke, suggesting he was sniffing for a seat. In a 2011 tweet to the Tory whip Therese Coffey that rather undermines his claims to be “local“, Snell admitted he is “still a Suffolk-boy at heart”.
Moral of story - don't pretend your candidate is something he isn't.
Nothing wrong with 'Having chosen to make my home in the Potteries'.....
So, we have the elite (1/650th) stating that he knows better that the democratically expressed will of the electorate
Is this the new Establishment? If you don't like the result of an election, scweam and scweam until you get another one, then keep on scweaming until you get the right result.
I blame some middle-class parents. Humour your children until they believe they have rights which over-ride all others. If you don't get your way, stamp your feet until you do.
Protest used to be on individual issues. Things that the government forgets about or is wrong on. I understand the protests about closing the borders to certain countries, and this is a specific issue.
Now it's really a protest about the result of democratic election or referendums. That way lies madness. What do they want? They want a self-appointed class to control things. When everyone is a fascist, it makes perverted sense to embrace fascist attitudes in response.
When minor changes are the epitome of horror, eleven out of ten on the unbearable scale. What happens when something major occurs? You've run out of hyperbole.
Hopefully it will settle down. It's a minority who run the full gamut of offence at the slightest flinch. You can remain committed to a cause without it completely taking over your life. After all, you might be dead tomorrow.
Yes, I know I'm getting old.
PS define, "fair".
2019 would be smart - give a fresh young leader *cough Lewis cough* a chance for the 2020 GE.
That's why Stoke may not be a Ukip gain.
I wonder if we'd have a General Election.
Yep, thought so.
On topic - I think Labour will lose Stoke to UKIP and just hang on to Copeland.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/178844