politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: May trouncing Corbyn in the po

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: May trouncing Corbyn in the polls and why we shouldn’t take the Northern Ireland peace process for granted

This week’s podcast is split into two parts.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Just look at that lead for Mrs May over Corbyn.

The fieldwork was 27th Jan to 31st of Jan inclusive.

FrancisUrquhart

FPT....

Richard_Nabavi said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stop The War Coalition is so last year darling....Stop Trump Coalition is the cause célèbre in 2017.

A letter sent to the Guardian by the newly formed Stop Trump Coalition, and signed by 90 figures from across arts and politics, damningly referred to the US president’s actions as “dangerous and divisive” and said he “directly threatens steps towards tackling climate change, fighting discrimination, inequality, peace and disarmament”.

Signatories include singers Lily Allen and Paloma Faith, comedians Frankie Boyle and Omid Djalili, model Bianca Jagger, former Labour leader Ed Miliband, Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, journalist Owen Jones, Green party co-leader Caroline Lucas, Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader, and Labour MP Clive Lewis.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/01/public-figures-call-biggest-ever-uk-protest-oppose-trump-visit

Dear me, the Trump administration will be having sleepless nights over that.

Just wait til he sees this on twitter......his tiny hands will be blasting out tweets left, right and centre.

Lily Allen - WHO?
Paloma Faith - OVERRATED
Omid Djalili - EXTREME VETTING
Bianca Jagger - UGLY
Ed Miliband - LOSER...

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stop The War Coalition is so last year darling....Stop Trump Coalition is the cause to be seen with in 2017.

A letter sent to the Guardian by the newly formed Stop Trump Coalition, and signed by 90 figures from across arts and politics, damningly referred to the US president’s actions as “dangerous and divisive” and said he “directly threatens steps towards tackling climate change, fighting discrimination, inequality, peace and disarmament”.

Signatories include singers Lily Allen and Paloma Faith, comedians Frankie Boyle and Omid Djalili, model Bianca Jagger, former Labour leader Ed Miliband, Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, journalist Owen Jones, Green party co-leader Caroline Lucas, Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader, and Labour MP Clive Lewis.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/01/public-figures-call-biggest-ever-uk-protest-oppose-trump-visit

Ugh, I hate it when I agree with the general thrust of someone's views - eg disliking Trump - but their actions around it make me think they are a bunch of berks.

kle4

Is 'trouncing' a strong enough word for such a gap in polling? Marmalising, perhaps? And yet I'll bet Labour still hold up well in Stoke and Copeland.

Will have to listen another time, but if it is touching on the NI peace process, and how fragile the whole set up looks, how riven with petty division and making only glacial progress it seems from the outside, then I'll prepare to be depressed.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just look at that lead for Mrs May over Corbyn.

The fieldwork was 27th Jan to 31st of Jan inclusive.

Go Jezza!!!!!!!!!!

FrancisUrquhart

For Jezza....its just a mere scratch.

kle4

Am I right in thinking 'understands the concerns of people like me' is traditionally a very strong factor for Labour leaders, even when polling poorly otherwise?

RobD

Supporters of FPTP rejoice... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38831142

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

Am I right in thinking 'understands the concerns of people like me' is traditionally a very strong factor for Labour leaders, even when polling poorly otherwise?

Yes Although Dave did beat Gordon Brown at his nadir.

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

Supporters of FPTP rejoice... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38831142

Justin Trudeau is worse than Donald Trump.

FrancisUrquhart

Trouble at mill....

The Romanian capital, Bucharest, has seen one of its largest ever anti-government protests after a decree was passed that could free dozens of officials jailed for corruption.

A crowd of at least 150,000 was reported outside government offices late on Wednesday and rallies took place in other towns and cities.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38836322

Y0kel

What peace process is that? The peace process was over years ago, its called politics now.

There is no taking it for granted unless you keep mollycoddling by calling it a 'peace process' as if its a fragile as a new born. Its a young adult now and it needs to learn to make decisions for itself.

This oh it might be a risk thing is bollocks.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Supporters of FPTP rejoice... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38831142

Justin Trudeau is worse than Donald Trump.

Trudeau's Liberal government said the move was made because Canadians were undecided about what kind of voting system they would like to have instead.

...sure that was it, Mr Prime Minister. But didn't they just grant a majority to a party which was promising to change it to something at least? If they weren't sure of the options, hold a series of runoffs to determine the most popular alternate system (perhaps with a runoff to decide what kind of system to run the other run-off on).

Now, in fairness I do not know Canadian politics, but it seems more probable than without the need to coalition with anyone, the appeal of FPTP seemed more acceptable, and since I presume those defeated had wanted to keep it, it's a u-turn they reckon they can get away with.

kle4

Y0kel said:

What peace process is that? The peace process was over years ago, its called politics now.

There is no taking it for granted unless you keep mollycoddling by calling it a 'peace process' as if its a fragile as a new born. Its a young adult now and it needs to learn to make decisions for itself.

This oh it might be a risk thing is bollocks.

I'll happily defer to those with on the ground view of things, but from the outside it seems like the politicians in NI want to be mollycoddled and choose to treat the whole thing as though its fragile as a newborn. If that's not the case, how might the voters express their dissatisfaction at the political infantilisation that goes on, in your view?

Night all.

The_Apocalypse

@Theuniondivvie Thanks for your support.

FPT:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I think actually think it's just that some PBers have sympathy/share the views of the religious right - I mean comparing abortion to infantacide?! .

Dear Ms Apocalypse, please grow up. You say some very sensible things, but some very, very silly things...

Part of growing up is to be able to distinguish someone explaining a third party's views, from someone sharing those views. And yes, of course, abortion and infanticide are morally indistinguishable if you start from the premise that the unborn child is a person exactly like the newly-born child.

There you are. Two separate concepts for you to try to understand. For the avoidance of doubt - this shouldn't need saying, but clearly does - I have said nothing whatsoever about what my views on this matter are, except that I don't think the viability of the foetus outside the womb is terribly relevant to question of the time limits for abortion.

Dear Mr Nabavi, stop being so patronising.

In your response to me you said nothing about infanticide in the context of a religious perspective on abortion. You provided that religious context throughout your other responses to me in the previous thread but did not in that in response. If you want to individuals to distinguish between third party views, and your own personal views you need to do that yourself.

The_Apocalypse

You have to really side-eye Trudeau on breaking his promise in regard to electoral reform. And I'm someone who actually likes him.

Y0kel

kle4 said:

Y0kel said:

What peace process is that? The peace process was over years ago, its called politics now.

There is no taking it for granted unless you keep mollycoddling by calling it a 'peace process' as if its a fragile as a new born. Its a young adult now and it needs to learn to make decisions for itself.

This oh it might be a risk thing is bollocks.

I'll happily defer to those with on the ground view of things, but from the outside it seems like the politicians in NI want to be mollycoddled and choose to treat the whole thing as though its fragile as a newborn. If that's not the case, how might the voters express their dissatisfaction at the political infantilisation that goes on, in your view?

Night all.

the voters aren't the ones infantilising, its others who need to drop it. Contrary to what many believe the voters vote broadly for what they believe in.

kle4

The_Apocalypse said:

You have to really side-eye Trudeau on breaking his promise in regard to electoral reform. And I'm someone who actually likes him.

He's a likable guy. But he has suffered from Obamafication - the reality, even if it turns out to be great, cannot match the sometimes inevitability grubby reality of politics. The key will be whether his more enthusiastic supporters will be able to acknowledge the disappointment or not.

kle4

Y0kel said:

kle4 said:

Y0kel said:

What peace process is that? The peace process was over years ago, its called politics now.

There is no taking it for granted unless you keep mollycoddling by calling it a 'peace process' as if its a fragile as a new born. Its a young adult now and it needs to learn to make decisions for itself.

This oh it might be a risk thing is bollocks.

I'll happily defer to those with on the ground view of things, but from the outside it seems like the politicians in NI want to be mollycoddled and choose to treat the whole thing as though its fragile as a newborn. If that's not the case, how might the voters express their dissatisfaction at the political infantilisation that goes on, in your view?

Night all.

the voters aren't the ones infantilising, its others who need to drop it. Contrary to what many believe the voters vote broadly for what they believe in.

I didn't say the voters were infantilising, in fact I said the opposite - I was curious how you felt the voters will react to be being infantilised by commentators and politicians, who frequently seem to use the terms and approach you described. The politicians are often the ones talking, even now, about the peace process and its fragility, it seems.

The_Apocalypse

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

You have to really side-eye Trudeau on breaking his promise in regard to electoral reform. And I'm someone who actually likes him.

He's a likable guy. But he has suffered from Obamafication - the reality, even if it turns out to be great, cannot match the sometimes inevitability grubby reality of politics. The key will be whether his more enthusiastic supporters will be able to acknowledge the disappointment or not.

True. I think Trudeau has definitely been put on a pedestal by some people where he can 'do no wrong'. The same goes for the few people left supporting Corbyn, and of course many Trumpers. I don't understand this type of devotion to a political leader. I liked Obama, but even I disagreed with quite a few his actions.

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Am I right in thinking 'understands the concerns of people like me' is traditionally a very strong factor for Labour leaders, even when polling poorly otherwise?

Yes Although Dave did beat Gordon Brown at his nadir.

But surely not by sixteen points? I mean, we are talking baby-eating Tories better understand the concerns of the voters than the Jessiah? We knew he was bad, but THAT bad???

kle4

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Am I right in thinking 'understands the concerns of people like me' is traditionally a very strong factor for Labour leaders, even when polling poorly otherwise?

Yes Although Dave did beat Gordon Brown at his nadir.

But surely not by sixteen points? I mean, we are talking baby-eating Tories better understand the concerns of the voters than the Jessiah? We knew he was bad, but THAT bad???

I should think baby eaters would be well placed to understand the concerns of ordinary people...whose babies they have eaten. They have first hand experience of the primary concern after all.

oxfordsimon

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

You have to really side-eye Trudeau on breaking his promise in regard to electoral reform. And I'm someone who actually likes him.

He's a likable guy. But he has suffered from Obamafication - the reality, even if it turns out to be great, cannot match the sometimes inevitability grubby reality of politics. The key will be whether his more enthusiastic supporters will be able to acknowledge the disappointment or not.

It is interesting to note that Trudeau for all his virtue-signalling and ability to look endearing in photographs does not lead a government that makes significant contributions to Overseas Aid. They do not meet the seemingly appropriate level of 0.7% of GDP - which is something I would have expected him to achieve.

Something that his supporters either ignore or don't bother informing themselves about.

TheScreamingEagles

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Am I right in thinking 'understands the concerns of people like me' is traditionally a very strong factor for Labour leaders, even when polling poorly otherwise?

Yes Although Dave did beat Gordon Brown at his nadir.

But surely not by sixteen points? I mean, we are talking baby-eating Tories better understand the concerns of the voters than the Jessiah? We knew he was bad, but THAT bad???

I think it was double digits. I think it was when the Tories had poll leads of 28% per cent.

Remember with Ipsos Mori Brown had net leader ratings of around the mid 40s.

Corbyn last rating with them was minus 35.

Granted one of them was PM and one is LOTO, so not a strict comparison but still a good pointer.

PlatoSaid

FrancisUrquhart said:

FPT....

Richard_Nabavi said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stop The War Coalition is so last year darling....Stop Trump Coalition is the cause célèbre in 2017.

A letter sent to the Guardian by the newly formed Stop Trump Coalition, and signed by 90 figures from across arts and politics, damningly referred to the US president’s actions as “dangerous and divisive” and said he “directly threatens steps towards tackling climate change, fighting discrimination, inequality, peace and disarmament”.

Signatories include singers Lily Allen and Paloma Faith, comedians Frankie Boyle and Omid Djalili, model Bianca Jagger, former Labour leader Ed Miliband, Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, journalist Owen Jones, Green party co-leader Caroline Lucas, Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader, and Labour MP Clive Lewis.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/01/public-figures-call-biggest-ever-uk-protest-oppose-trump-visit

Dear me, the Trump administration will be having sleepless nights over that.

Just wait til he sees this on twitter......his tiny hands will be blasting out tweets left, right and centre.

Lily Allen - WHO?
Paloma Faith - OVERRATED
Omid Djalili - EXTREME VETTING
Bianca Jagger - UGLY
Ed Miliband - LOSER...

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Supporters of FPTP rejoice... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38831142

Justin Trudeau is worse than Donald Trump.

Trudeau's Liberal government said the move was made because Canadians were undecided about what kind of voting system they would like to have instead.

...sure that was it, Mr Prime Minister. But didn't they just grant a majority to a party which was promising to change it to something at least? If they weren't sure of the options, hold a series of runoffs to determine the most popular alternate system (perhaps with a runoff to decide what kind of system to run the other run-off on).

Now, in fairness I do not know Canadian politics, but it seems more probable than without the need to coalition with anyone, the appeal of FPTP seemed more acceptable, and since I presume those defeated had wanted to keep it, it's a u-turn they reckon they can get away with.

He's denied Canadians the opportunity to experience AV, the greatest voting system known to man, the man is awful.

FrancisUrquhart

oxfordsimon said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

You have to really side-eye Trudeau on breaking his promise in regard to electoral reform. And I'm someone who actually likes him.

He's a likable guy. But he has suffered from Obamafication - the reality, even if it turns out to be great, cannot match the sometimes inevitability grubby reality of politics. The key will be whether his more enthusiastic supporters will be able to acknowledge the disappointment or not.

It is interesting to note that Trudeau for all his virtue-signalling and ability to look endearing in photographs does not lead a government that makes significant contributions to Overseas Aid. They do not meet the seemingly appropriate level of 0.7% of GDP - which is something I would have expected him to achieve.

Something that his supporters either ignore or don't bother informing themselves about.

All fart and no follow through....

kle4

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

You have to really side-eye Trudeau on breaking his promise in regard to electoral reform. And I'm someone who actually likes him.

He's a likable guy. But he has suffered from Obamafication - the reality, even if it turns out to be great, cannot match the sometimes inevitability grubby reality of politics. The key will be whether his more enthusiastic supporters will be able to acknowledge the disappointment or not.

True. I think Trudeau has definitely been put on a pedestal by some people where he can 'do no wrong'. The same goes for the few people left supporting Corbyn, and of course many Trumpers. I don't understand this type of devotion to a political leader. I liked Obama, but even I disagreed with quite a few his actions.

I thinks it's half pedestal placing which is unrealistic, and half over hyping even minor things as glorious triumphs of awesomeness. Overselling the awesomeness of a leader is standard practice for party rank and file I suppose, but some leaders rely on it more than others. As I've crept into my doddering 30s, I find I almost prefer grey, dull types, as the lack of hype makes me less inclined to suspicion. Just what they're counting on I guess.

Tykejohnno

The_Apocalypse said:

You have to really side-eye Trudeau on breaking his promise in regard to electoral reform. And I'm someone who actually likes him.

I bet you liked Blair in the beginning.

PlatoSaid

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Am I right in thinking 'understands the concerns of people like me' is traditionally a very strong factor for Labour leaders, even when polling poorly otherwise?

Yes Although Dave did beat Gordon Brown at his nadir.

But surely not by sixteen points? I mean, we are talking baby-eating Tories better understand the concerns of the voters than the Jessiah? We knew he was bad, but THAT bad???

I should think baby eaters would be well placed to understand the concerns of ordinary people...whose babies they have eaten. They have first hand experience of the primary concern after all.

I think we're experiencing intersectionality!

kle4

Tykejohnno said:

The_Apocalypse said:

You have to really side-eye Trudeau on breaking his promise in regard to electoral reform. And I'm someone who actually likes him.

I bet you liked Blair.

Most people seemed to.

The_Apocalypse

Tykejohnno said:

The_Apocalypse said:

You have to really side-eye Trudeau on breaking his promise in regard to electoral reform. And I'm someone who actually likes him.

I bet you liked Blair.

For most of his time as PM I was a kid. But generally I grew up in anti-Blair household and so those views filtered down to me.

weejonnie

oxfordsimon said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

You have to really side-eye Trudeau on breaking his promise in regard to electoral reform. And I'm someone who actually likes him.

He's a likable guy. But he has suffered from Obamafication - the reality, even if it turns out to be great, cannot match the sometimes inevitability grubby reality of politics. The key will be whether his more enthusiastic supporters will be able to acknowledge the disappointment or not.

It is interesting to note that Trudeau for all his virtue-signalling and ability to look endearing in photographs does not lead a government that makes significant contributions to Overseas Aid. They do not meet the seemingly appropriate level of 0.7% of GDP - which is something I would have expected him to achieve.

Something that his supporters either ignore or don't bother informing themselves about.

So in one country we have an extreme right winger, monster, baby eater, misogynist (insert words of your choice here) who is not a politician but is keeping his promises and in the other we seem to have a snowflake who is a real politician - and so breaks his.

Lucky for Trudeau that lying for political reasons is not a cause to be barred from the USA.

FrancisUrquhart

Vice see this as a negative, I see this as a postive...Charter Schools have forced failing schools that nobody wanted to go to up their game, which is win win for the kids.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDv0dkEYZUg

Paristonda

RobD said:

Supporters of FPTP rejoice... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38831142

I'm actually surprised by that. It was such a big promise, and he looks incredibly shifty abandoning it for naked political interest. I must somehow not yet be sufficiently jaded and cynical as I didn't think he would u-turn on it.

PlatoSaid

Brilliant spot - video

Paul Joseph Watson
McGoohan foresaw the rise of social justice warrior public shaming/outrage culture 50 years in advance. https://t.co/GY410Od6d1

Paristonda

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Supporters of FPTP rejoice... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38831142

Justin Trudeau is worse than Donald Trump.

Trudeau's Liberal government said the move was made because Canadians were undecided about what kind of voting system they would like to have instead.

...sure that was it, Mr Prime Minister. But didn't they just grant a majority to a party which was promising to change it to something at least? If they weren't sure of the options, hold a series of runoffs to determine the most popular alternate system (perhaps with a runoff to decide what kind of system to run the other run-off on).

Now, in fairness I do not know Canadian politics, but it seems more probable than without the need to coalition with anyone, the appeal of FPTP seemed more acceptable, and since I presume those defeated had wanted to keep it, it's a u-turn they reckon they can get away with.

the NDP, a more successful Lib Dem party, are rabidly pro-PR. So he will face a lot of attack on his left from them, and it's not like the Tories will just thank him and leave it be, they will pile in too. Could be the fall from grace moment for him.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/apblake/status/826937158007193600

williamglenn

Trump threatens to invade Mexico.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-mexico-care-bad-hombres-us-45205127

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/apblake/status/826937158007193600

That's going to go down errrhhh like a s##t sandwich. I mean its like the USA hasn't any sort of history of issues with violent white supremacists.

The_Apocalypse

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/apblake/status/826937158007193600

I wonder how this will be defended.

FrancisUrquhart

Trump is clearly back from his visit to the solider's family!!!

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Supporters of FPTP rejoice... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38831142

Justin Trudeau is worse than Donald Trump.

Trudeau's Liberal government said the move was made because Canadians were undecided about what kind of voting system they would like to have instead.

...sure that was it, Mr Prime Minister. But didn't they just grant a majority to a party which was promising to change it to something at least? If they weren't sure of the options, hold a series of runoffs to determine the most popular alternate system (perhaps with a runoff to decide what kind of system to run the other run-off on).

Now, in fairness I do not know Canadian politics, but it seems more probable than without the need to coalition with anyone, the appeal of FPTP seemed more acceptable, and since I presume those defeated had wanted to keep it, it's a u-turn they reckon they can get away with.

He's denied Canadians the opportunity to experience AV, the greatest voting system known to man, the man is awful.

AV referendum, 2011:

No 2 AV 68%
Yes 2 AV 32%

FrancisUrquhart

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/apblake/status/826937158007193600

I wonder how this will be defended.

Use of alternative facts?

nunu

Paristonda said:

RobD said:

Supporters of FPTP rejoice... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38831142

I'm actually surprised by that. It was such a big promise, and he looks incredibly shifty abandoning it for naked political interest. I must somehow not yet be sufficiently jaded and cynical as I didn't think he would u-turn on it.

it's a catch 22 I guess.

Parties that win by fptp don't want to change the system.

The_Apocalypse

FrancisUrquhart said:

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/apblake/status/826937158007193600

I wonder how this will be defended.

Use of alternative facts?

Yep. We better get used to them....

PlatoSaid

So true.

John Ekdahl
If you adjust your sleep schedule, you can probably sleep through the outrage cycle and wake up for the corrections.

FrancisUrquhart

nunu said:

Paristonda said:

RobD said:

Supporters of FPTP rejoice... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38831142

I'm actually surprised by that. It was such a big promise, and he looks incredibly shifty abandoning it for naked political interest. I must somehow not yet be sufficiently jaded and cynical as I didn't think he would u-turn on it.

it's a catch 22 I guess.

Parties that win by fptp don't want to change the system.

Would never happen here....

Philip_Thompson

Trudeau is Teflon Tony so betraying voting reform is par for the course.

Guess that means Trudeau now needs to invade a nation with Trump.

Tykejohnno

The_Apocalypse said:

Tykejohnno said:

The_Apocalypse said:

You have to really side-eye Trudeau on breaking his promise in regard to electoral reform. And I'm someone who actually likes him.

I bet you liked Blair.

For most of his time as PM I was a kid. But generally I grew up in anti-Blair household and so those views filtered down to me.

I apologise then.

FrancisUrquhart

The only caution I would add is, if the story was revamp of program X to focus solely on Islamic Extremists, new program Y to focus on "traditional" forms, that puts a totally different spin on things.

I only add caution because the media have played fast and loose with some of these stories like the "mass resignation" story. They premature ejaculated over the fact 4 people had put in their resignations to wait to get the full story.

Pulpstar

williamglenn said:

Trump threatens to invade Mexico.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-mexico-care-bad-hombres-us-45205127

@Pong had a bet on Trump winning and declaring war on Mexico.

PlatoSaid

Godfrey Elfwick
After the #brexit disaster I had a moment of clarity, and realised calling people racist wasn't helpful. So I use the word 'Nazi' now.

Paristonda

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/apblake/status/826937158007193600

That's going to go down errrhhh like a s##t sandwich. I mean its like the USA hasn't any sort of history of issues with violent white supremacists.

And so the muslim ban gets forgotten about, as uproar begins over this for next week.

The theories out there saying that Trump is deliberately releasing one controversial policy after another in order to drain the opposition's energy and keep their focus spread thinly, are seeming more and more likely.

Pulpstar

Can anyone tell me why a general election might happen this year, and what probability they;d assess said event at ?

FrancisUrquhart

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:

Trump threatens to invade Mexico.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-mexico-care-bad-hombres-us-45205127

@Pong had a bet on Trump winning and declaring war on Mexico.

I reckon he is eyeing up bringing Cabo Las Lucas under US control....unlike Putin grab for icy colds parts of the world, Trumpy could have the all year round sunshine and lovely beaches of Cabo added to the US as a 51st state.

PlatoSaid

williamglenn said:

Trump threatens to invade Mexico.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-mexico-care-bad-hombres-us-45205127

Salvatore Hernandez
Mexico's State Department says that .@potus did not threaten to send US military to Mexico during call with @epn, despite news reports https://t.co/rs3jbbyrdp

HYUFD

Paristonda said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Supporters of FPTP rejoice... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38831142

Justin Trudeau is worse than Donald Trump.

Trudeau's Liberal government said the move was made because Canadians were undecided about what kind of voting system they would like to have instead.

...sure that was it, Mr Prime Minister. But didn't they just grant a majority to a party which was promising to change it to something at least? If they weren't sure of the options, hold a series of runoffs to determine the most popular alternate system (perhaps with a runoff to decide what kind of system to run the other run-off on).

Now, in fairness I do not know Canadian politics, but it seems more probable than without the need to coalition with anyone, the appeal of FPTP seemed more acceptable, and since I presume those defeated had wanted to keep it, it's a u-turn they reckon they can get away with.

the NDP, a more successful Lib Dem party, are rabidly pro-PR. So he will face a lot of attack on his left from them, and it's not like the Tories will just thank him and leave it be, they will pile in too. Could be the fall from grace moment for him.

Trudeau won a landslide at the last election under FPTP and has a big lead in the polls, why would he change? It is the NDP who really want it. He has put voting systems out to consultation, none came back with majority support, so he decided to stick with the status quo. Quelle surprise!

HYUFD

Pulpstar said:

Can anyone tell me why a general election might happen this year, and what probability they;d assess said event at ?

Given Article 50 is to be invoked by the end of March if no election has been called by then there is near zero chance of a general election before the end of 2019. Brexit negotiations will dominate May's timetable

FrancisUrquhart

Paristonda said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/apblake/status/826937158007193600

That's going to go down errrhhh like a s##t sandwich. I mean its like the USA hasn't any sort of history of issues with violent white supremacists.

And so the muslim ban gets forgotten about, as uproar begins over this for next week.

The theories out there saying that Trump is deliberately releasing one controversial policy after another in order to drain the opposition's energy and keep their focus spread thinly, are seeming more and more likely.

This program is $10 million apparently, so basically bugger all. So it seems much more likely this is a strategy of causing another media meltdown while they do something else.

FrancisUrquhart

Tokyo 2020 Olympic Medals are going to be a pile of junk....literally....

http://www.silicon.co.uk/mobility/tokyo-2020-olympic-medals-recycled-phones-204125

PlatoSaid

Noah Rothman
CBS news reports that both the bacon shortage and the cats at the Westminster Dog Show stories are bunk. Because of course.

Noah Rothman
We've had that stupid bacon shortage story every year for at least 8 years. The cat story I bought though. Twitter is a cancer.

FrancisUrquhart

I think the Women's March might be looking for a new poster child....This has just been picked up by Fox, who interviewed Ali* and confirmed all this was true / made further allegations about Sarsour long held extreme views.

“Brigitte Gabriel = Ayaan Hirsi Ali. She’s asking 4 an a$$ whippin’. I wish I could take their vaginas away- they don’t deserve to be women,” Sarsour tweeted out in 2011.

The two women in question are both refugees who fled war-torn countries. Brigitte Garbriel, the founder of ACT for America, routinely speaks out against radical Islamic terror. Ayaan Hirsi Ali, who founded the AHA Foundation, was a victim of female genital mutilation.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/01/27/womens-march-leader-once-threatened-to-take-away-womens-vaginas/

*Ali is married to Niall Ferguson.

AndyJS

A big irony of recent developments is that Tory Eurosceptics probably never considered the possibility that success for their cause might threaten to split the Labour Party. They were so obsessed with trying to leave the EU that they most likely hadn't thought about any knock-on effects on other parties.

williamglenn

Sounds like Trump's call with Malcolm Turnbull wasn't much friendlier.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/no-gday-mate-on-call-with-australian-pm-trump-badgers-and-brags/2017/02/01/88a3bfb0-e8bf-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html

PlatoSaid

Just in California http://ktla.com/2017/02/01/474-arrested-28-sexually-exploited-children-rescued-during-statewide-human-trafficking-operation-lasd/

"In total, 474 arrests were made, including 142 males on solicitation charges, and 36 males on suspicion of pimping, according to figures provided by the Sheriff’s Department.

Additionally, 28 commercially, sexually-exploited children and 27 adult victims were rescued.

FrancisUrquhart

That £2bn purchase of Oculus just got $500m more expensive....

Facebook faces $500m hit after defeat in virtual reality case

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38834867

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/malmstromeu/status/826749053841108993

PAW

Cecilia Malmström - just wondering if BMW intends to close German plants and import cars for Germany from Mexico?

PAW

Cecilia Malmström - perhaps the EU could give grants to encourage BMW to shut plants in Germany and open them in Mexico - like it did with Ford in Southampton and Turkey.

PlatoSaid

I wish more in the media were as grown up as Reuters - they're the only news service that isn't playing silly buggers. AP were showing obvious bias during the election - I was most disappointed in them.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-01/mainstream-media-awakening-reuters-tells-reporters-covering-trump-get-out-country-an

FrancisUrquhart

A planned appearance Wednesday by controversial internet figure Milo Yiannopulos, an editor for the conservative website Breitbart was cancelled after protests turned violent on the U.C. Berkeley campus.

http://abc7news.com/news/protesters-gather-before-yiannopoulos-appearance-at-berkeley/1732466/

CNN showing big fires burning and smashed windows.

It is really bizarre, Trump is wrong for banning people, but its ok to riot over a guy coming to give a talk.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

A planned appearance Wednesday by controversial internet figure Milo Yiannopulos, an editor for the conservative website Breitbart was cancelled after protests turned violent on the U.C. Berkeley campus.

http://abc7news.com/news/protesters-gather-before-yiannopoulos-appearance-at-berkeley/1732466/

CNN showing big fires burning.

Bloody lefties!

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A planned appearance Wednesday by controversial internet figure Milo Yiannopulos, an editor for the conservative website Breitbart was cancelled after protests turned violent on the U.C. Berkeley campus.

http://abc7news.com/news/protesters-gather-before-yiannopoulos-appearance-at-berkeley/1732466/

CNN showing big fires burning.

Bloody lefties!

In comparison...Milton Friedman debates a young Michael Moore about capitalism

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdyKAIhLdNs

PlatoSaid

FrancisUrquhart said:

A planned appearance Wednesday by controversial internet figure Milo Yiannopulos, an editor for the conservative website Breitbart was cancelled after protests turned violent on the U.C. Berkeley campus.

http://abc7news.com/news/protesters-gather-before-yiannopoulos-appearance-at-berkeley/1732466/

CNN showing big fires burning and smashed windows.

It is really bizarre, Trump is wrong for banning people, but its ok to riot over a guy coming to give a talk.

Just been watching it and reading tweets. The irony of lefties shutting down a speaker and proclaiming how much they love diversity... But only free speech they approve of.

And rioting.

FrancisUrquhart

PlatoSaid said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A planned appearance Wednesday by controversial internet figure Milo Yiannopulos, an editor for the conservative website Breitbart was cancelled after protests turned violent on the U.C. Berkeley campus.

http://abc7news.com/news/protesters-gather-before-yiannopoulos-appearance-at-berkeley/1732466/

CNN showing big fires burning and smashed windows.

It is really bizarre, Trump is wrong for banning people, but its ok to riot over a guy coming to give a talk.

Just been watching it and reading tweets. The irony of lefties shutting down a speaker and proclaiming how much they love diversity... But only free speech they approve of.

And rioting.

And taking selfies in front of the damage to their own school....I kid you not.

They are just proving Yiannopoulos point.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A planned appearance Wednesday by controversial internet figure Milo Yiannopulos, an editor for the conservative website Breitbart was cancelled after protests turned violent on the U.C. Berkeley campus.

http://abc7news.com/news/protesters-gather-before-yiannopoulos-appearance-at-berkeley/1732466/

CNN showing big fires burning.

Bloody lefties!

In comparison...Milton Friedman debates a young Michael Moore about capitalism

www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdyKAIhLdNs

Nice.. at least he was debating the man, not just rioting and burning things.

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A planned appearance Wednesday by controversial internet figure Milo Yiannopulos, an editor for the conservative website Breitbart was cancelled after protests turned violent on the U.C. Berkeley campus.

http://abc7news.com/news/protesters-gather-before-yiannopoulos-appearance-at-berkeley/1732466/

CNN showing big fires burning.

Bloody lefties!

In comparison...Milton Friedman debates a young Michael Moore about capitalism

www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdyKAIhLdNs

Nice.. at least he was debating the man, not just rioting and burning things.

Exactly. Just debate Yiannopulos calmly and intelligently, you will probably win if you think carefully about your argument....nah smash our own student union up and don't forget the selfie....

PlatoSaid

Mark Kern
Pretty sure that's the MLK Student Union they smashed up too...

FrancisUrquhart

PlatoSaid said:

Mark Kern
Pretty sure that's the MLK Student Union they smashed up too...

It is.

PlatoSaid

FrancisUrquhart said:

PlatoSaid said:

Mark Kern
Pretty sure that's the MLK Student Union they smashed up too...

It is.

I particularly enjoyed the giant rainbow light show projected across the square ... As they riot about a gay Jewish man who only dates black guys

PlatoSaid

I wonder where this is going

Donald J Trump
Iran is rapidly taking over more and more of Iraq even after the U.S. has squandered three trillion dollars there. Obvious long ago!

PlatoSaid

Charles C Cooke
Reminds me of being at Oxford when “anti-fascists” protested a debate wearing balaclavas and holding “No free speech for fascists” signs.

Damian Penny
@charlescwcooke Remember the old Sandinista line: "They say we're against freedom of speech. This is a lie and we can't let them publish it"

FrancisUrquhart

PlatoSaid said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

PlatoSaid said:

Mark Kern
Pretty sure that's the MLK Student Union they smashed up too...

It is.

I particularly enjoyed the giant rainbow light show projected across the square ... As they riot about a gay Jewish man who only dates black guys

What an irony.

The level of hate against him is ridiculous. He is a professional troll who says stuff to get a response and start an argument. His "act" is annoying more than anything, and the more hyper stuff is an act, as I have heard him do much more sensible and rational.

But the way they go on about him you would expect he sends his spare time addressing EDL / Britain First rallies, when he never utters anything remotely like that.

PlatoSaid

This whole thread is insane on the spot stuff

Ian Miles Cheong
Chants of "Mexico!" "Fuck you Nazi scum!" and "I'll kill you!" as man is pummeled on the ground by rioters. https://t.co/G2CqvfhOpP

PlatoSaid

Fox
Milo Yiannopoulos​: “For 30 years, the left has been able to bully people into silence by name calling and they’ve forgotten how to argue.” https://t.co/I2R0se8NON

CarlottaVance

Just so I understand. Over the weekend, when we were being told on here and on Twitter that Theresa the appeaser Maybe was a weak leader (net +67 vs Corbyn), a useless PM (net +68 vs Corbyn) who didn't know what she stood for (Net +21 vs Corbyn) and was a disaster for the Tories (net +80 vs Corbyn) who was ridiculed, reviled & loathed (net +33 vs Corbyn), ordinary voters thought otherwise?

PlatoSaid

Ah, explains the phone call with Turnball

Donald J Trump
Do you believe it? The Obama Administration agreed to take thousands of illegal immigrants from Australia. Why? I will study this dumb deal!

RobD

CarlottaVance said:

Just so I understand. Over the weekend, when we were being told on here and on Twitter that Theresa the appeaser Maybe was a weak leader (net +67 vs Corbyn), a useless PM (net +68 vs Corbyn) who didn't know what she stood for (Net +21 vs Corbyn) and was a disaster for the Tories (net +80 vs Corbyn) who was ridiculed, reviled & loathed (net +33 vs Corbyn), ordinary voters thought otherwise?

Similarly, we also had polls showing more people in favour of Trump's EO, and in favour of his visit to the UK. David Cameron has said some wise words on the subject of Twitter!

FrancisUrquhart

PlatoSaid said:

Ah, explains the phone call with Turnball

Donald J Trump
Do you believe it? The Obama Administration agreed to take thousands of illegal immigrants from Australia. Why? I will study this dumb deal!

I can see why Trump is pissed about this. Obama signed the US up to potentially excepting people currently located on Manus Island and Nauru in detention centres only in November.

Most of the people are Iranian. So for Trump that is politically terrible if on one hand he is saying there is a ban, sorry temporary pause, on all Iranians and on the other hand expecting to take in a load of Iranians that Australia won't deal with.

swing_voter

N Ireland is perhaps the biggest running sore out of the BREXIT mess (closely followed by the Scottish national question), coverage of this issue last year was somehow left off the national debate as it was deemed too "provincial" and complicated a matter for broadcasters and policy makers alike. The DUP/Unionists pushed for a Leave vote and got a UK-wide Leave, and the NI Remain camp has been drowned out. As the author says, we have become complacent about the peace process there (aided by UK broadcasters and journos who have under-reported the problems at a UK level).

That is not to say, that N Ireland's problems should have overriden the BREXIT vote, but some sort of consensus is needed (quickly) to ensure that political violence does not flare up again. Unfortunately I cannot see the current Lab leadership sitting down with the DUP, other N Ireland parties & Conservatives to hammer out a consensus (despite the fact the DUP sit with Sinn Fein) all in all I can see a mess that needs more than words and TM is not well placed to solve it. Folk may knock Tony Blair but he did build spectacularly on some good work by his predecessors to get the Good Friday Agreement - we need some leadership on this matter and quite fast.

Bromptonaut

swing_voter said:

N Ireland is perhaps the biggest running sore out of the BREXIT mess (closely followed by the Scottish national question), coverage of this issue last year was somehow left off the national debate as it was deemed too "provincial" and complicated a matter for broadcasters and policy makers alike. The DUP/Unionists pushed for a Leave vote and got a UK-wide Leave, and the NI Remain camp has been drowned out. As the author says, we have become complacent about the peace process there (aided by UK broadcasters and journos who have under-reported the problems at a UK level).

That is not to say, that N Ireland's problems should have overriden the BREXIT vote, but some sort of consensus is needed (quickly) to ensure that political violence does not flare up again. Unfortunately I cannot see the current Lab leadership sitting down with the DUP, other N Ireland parties & Conservatives to hammer out a consensus (despite the fact the DUP sit with Sinn Fein) all in all I can see a mess that needs more than words and TM is not well placed to solve it. Folk may knock Tony Blair but he did build spectacularly on some good work by his predecessors to get the Good Friday Agreement - we need some leadership on this matter and quite fast.

They haven't gone away you know.

SouthamObserver

CarlottaVance said:

Just so I understand. Over the weekend, when we were being told on here and on Twitter that Theresa the appeaser Maybe was a weak leader (net +67 vs Corbyn), a useless PM (net +68 vs Corbyn) who didn't know what she stood for (Net +21 vs Corbyn) and was a disaster for the Tories (net +80 vs Corbyn) who was ridiculed, reviled & loathed (net +33 vs Corbyn), ordinary voters thought otherwise?

Look who she is being compared to. That's all you need to know.

SouthamObserver

PlatoSaid said:

I wish more in the media were as grown up as Reuters - they're the only news service that isn't playing silly buggers. AP were showing obvious bias during the election - I was most disappointed in them.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-01/mainstream-media-awakening-reuters-tells-reporters-covering-trump-get-out-country-an

Back on the naughty step presumably and totally out of touch and biased:

U.S. military officials told Reuters that Trump approved his first covert counterterrorism operation without sufficient intelligence, ground support or adequate backup preparations.
As a result, three officials said, the attacking SEAL team found itself dropping onto a reinforced al Qaeda base defended by landmines, snipers, and a larger than expected contingent of heavily armed Islamist extremists.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-commando-idUSKBN15G5RX

swing_voter

To further the point, I cannot help feel that the current Tory top team have yet to be really tested........BREXIT is one thing, but it is the other stuff that often shows a govt's strengths and weaknesses. not sure what it will be but something other than BREXIT will come along that will really test the govt's mettle (terrorist attack, invasion of a friendly state, Libya, foot and mouth disease etc). I dont thinkc that May's keep silent, stern, school mistress approach will work so well then and as for Boris J etc only time will tell

SouthamObserver

swing_voter said:

To further the point, I cannot help feel that the current Tory top team have yet to be really tested........BREXIT is one thing, but it is the other stuff that often shows a govt's strengths and weaknesses. not sure what it will be but something other than BREXIT will come along that will really test the govt's mettle (terrorist attack, invasion of a friendly state, Libya, foot and mouth disease etc). I dont thinkc that May's keep silent, stern, school mistress approach will work so well then and as for Boris J etc only time will tell

The Tories have a totally free hand and can do whatever they want. There is no opposition. It's great for Theresa May. It's absolutely disastrous for the country.

AlsoIndigo

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

I wish more in the media were as grown up as Reuters - they're the only news service that isn't playing silly buggers. AP were showing obvious bias during the election - I was most disappointed in them.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-01/mainstream-media-awakening-reuters-tells-reporters-covering-trump-get-out-country-an

Back on the naughty step presumably and totally out of touch and biased:

U.S. military officials told Reuters that Trump approved his first covert counterterrorism operation without sufficient intelligence, ground support or adequate backup preparations.
As a result, three officials said, the attacking SEAL team found itself dropping onto a reinforced al Qaeda base defended by landmines, snipers, and a larger than expected contingent of heavily armed Islamist extremists.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-commando-idUSKBN15G5RX

One could be forgiven for thinking that attack plans were the jobs of military strategists, specialist operators and senior officers rather than Presidents. I understood the usual approach was to go to the president with a plan, possible in response to his requirements, and he says go/nogo. Why did the go to him for approval if the plan sucked ?

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

Just so I understand. Over the weekend, when we were being told on here and on Twitter that Theresa the appeaser Maybe was a weak leader (net +67 vs Corbyn), a useless PM (net +68 vs Corbyn) who didn't know what she stood for (Net +21 vs Corbyn) and was a disaster for the Tories (net +80 vs Corbyn) who was ridiculed, reviled & loathed (net +33 vs Corbyn), ordinary voters thought otherwise?

Look who she is being compared to. That's all you need to know.

May's still got net positive ratings for all of those attributes - the only one where she's negative is 'Understands people like me' - traditionally a Tory weakness against even the most useless of Labour leaders - and she's still ahead of Corbyn on that one......

AlsoIndigo

swing_voter said:

To further the point, I cannot help feel that the current Tory top team have yet to be really tested........BREXIT is one thing, but it is the other stuff that often shows a govt's strengths and weaknesses. not sure what it will be but something other than BREXIT will come along that will really test the govt's mettle (terrorist attack, invasion of a friendly state, Libya, foot and mouth disease etc). I dont thinkc that May's keep silent, stern, school mistress approach will work so well then and as for Boris J etc only time will tell

So what you are saying is lots of things might go wrong, and the government might not be able to cope.. something that could be said about pretty much any government anywhen... and those that did cope did tend to rush off to war without enough consideration and plans for after the victory.

Why not just say you think the government is rubbish, it would be more honest

AlsoIndigo

SouthamObserver said:

swing_voter said:

To further the point, I cannot help feel that the current Tory top team have yet to be really tested........BREXIT is one thing, but it is the other stuff that often shows a govt's strengths and weaknesses. not sure what it will be but something other than BREXIT will come along that will really test the govt's mettle (terrorist attack, invasion of a friendly state, Libya, foot and mouth disease etc). I dont thinkc that May's keep silent, stern, school mistress approach will work so well then and as for Boris J etc only time will tell

The Tories have a totally free hand and can do whatever they want. There is no opposition. It's great for Theresa May. It's absolutely disastrous for the country.

If there was a general election today May would win a majority of somewhere comfortably over 100 at which point ,rather like Blair in his first term, it doesn't really matter if there is an opposition, it will never get enough votes to matter. Somehow the country lived through Blair's elected dictatorship without everyone handwringing that it would be a disaster for the country. The media was too obsessed with a bunch of hopeychanging cool britannia crap for one thing.