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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first electoral test following the budget – tonight’s loca

SystemSystem Posts: 11,008
edited March 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first electoral test following the budget – tonight’s local elections

The by-elections held today are the first electoral test of the Budget announced yesterday. Here, for reference, is what happened after the 2016 Budget:

Read the full story here


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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    First like anyone against Corbyn in a General Election.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    Get a man in?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Question Time might be worth a watch for once tonight - Polly Toynbee is "doing the north" for the first time since 1972 and meeting the voters of Sunderland....
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Thanks Harry!
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    SeanT said:

    I'm having a kir royale and some foie gras in La Rotonde, where Picasso drank. I've cheered up. Brexit will be fine.

    Good man.

    There must be some Hamonistas around to cheer you up, right?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    Or bribe the Northern Irish. The DUP will generally see sense 'for the right price'.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    Or bribe the Northern Irish. The DUP will generally see sense 'for the right price'.
    The Unionists are always a handy trump card for Tories.

    Would be worth holding noses on this and getting it through.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    Everyones fav song.. and possibly the next Leave anthem (although Gabriel would not allow that!)

    "Liberty she pirouhette, when I think that I am free!"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-V7cXEddJs
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    How does she do that? PMs don't have it in their power any more to call general elections
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,660
    Some good council seat names tonight. In West Oxfordshire particularly (bif swing to LD predicted by Harry there and in Rutland I see , that's not a bad general guess thesedays in any case)
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    How does she do that? PMs don't have it in their power any more to call general elections
    There are ways and means. For example if they voted down their own budget, that would be one way around the fixed term?
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    How does she do that? PMs don't have it in their power any more to call general elections
    There are ways and means. For example if they voted down their own budget, that would be one way around the fixed term?
    No it wouldn't.
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited March 2017
    It's already clear that Hammond is a left of centre CoE. If the Tories are serious about winning in 2020 (or possibly earlier), Mrs. May needs to appoint a replacement and soon.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017
    Waltham Cross and Harrow are interesting ones being Labour London suburbia.

    My vague instinct on Waltham Cross judged by nothing more than driving through it fairly regularly is that it won't be Corbyn friendly territory.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,660

    It's already clear that Hammond is a left of centre CoE. If the Tories are serious about winning in 2020 (or possibly earlier), Mrs. may needs to appoint a replacement and soon.

    What about the opposition? Pretty sure Hammond would not drag them down for one manifesto breach that May presumably signed off on, and despite the hysteria is not that massive, given the opposition is not in prime position to advance this 'mistake' into a narrative that will help Labour win.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    I'm laying an election this year at around 3.2 average on Betfair. A great investment if I don't say so myself.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    edited March 2017
    Some high-flyers have houses in the West Oxfordshire seat being contested today: Jack Straw (Minster Lovell) and, I think, Steve Hilton.

    Will be close, certainly not nailed on for the Lib Dems.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    How does she do that? PMs don't have it in their power any more to call general elections
    There are ways and means. For example if they voted down their own budget, that would be one way around the fixed term?
    No it wouldn't.
    What about a Queens Speech?

    There must be some procedure to have an election?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,660
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    How does she do that? PMs don't have it in their power any more to call general elections
    There are ways and means. For example if they voted down their own budget, that would be one way around the fixed term?
    No it wouldn't.
    What about a Queens Speech?

    There must be some procedure to have an election?
    2/3 MPs vote for one, or government loses vote of no confidence and no alternate government is able to be formed in 2 weeks, IIRC.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    How does she do that? PMs don't have it in their power any more to call general elections
    Idk. But she has to. Her majority is too small and she has her crazy backbenches and SNP to think about. Like SeanT today was the first day I thought oh fu@ this is going to be a lot harder than I thought. We can't have a negotiation with one part of the UK trying to secede from it. She has to block another Sindy ref before Brexit even tho that will send Scottish nationalism to an all time high. Scotts can go or stay after that. Also that's not even mentioning the lords......
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    How does she do that? PMs don't have it in their power any more to call general elections
    There are ways and means. For example if they voted down their own budget, that would be one way around the fixed term?
    No it wouldn't.
    What about a Queens Speech?

    There must be some procedure to have an election?
    2/3 MPs vote for one, or government loses vote of no confidence and no alternate government is able to be formed in 2 weeks, IIRC.
    Ok, let's do that! :smiley:
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    nunu said:

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    How does she do that? PMs don't have it in their power any more to call general elections
    Idk. But she has to. Her majority is too small and she has her crazy backbenches and SNP to think about. Like SeanT today was the first day I thought oh fu@ this is going to be a lot harder than I thought. We can't have a negotiation with one part of the UK trying to secede from it. She has to block another Sindy ref before Brexit even tho that will send Scottish nationalism to an all time high. Scotts can go or stay after that. Also that's not even mentioning the lords......
    It seems people are realising I'm not so mad after all... :)
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    O/T AGW.

    Yet another fruitcake in Trump's Government. Trump has really surrounded himself with the scum of the earth!

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/donald-trump-epa-head-global-warming-not-man-made-climate-change-denial-scott-pruitt-a7621271.html

    And there are people even here (not many I know) that support Trump - Jeez!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    edited March 2017
    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    nunu said:

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    How does she do that? PMs don't have it in their power any more to call general elections
    Idk. But she has to. Her majority is too small and she has her crazy backbenches and SNP to think about. Like SeanT today was the first day I thought oh fu@ this is going to be a lot harder than I thought. We can't have a negotiation with one part of the UK trying to secede from it. She has to block another Sindy ref before Brexit even tho that will send Scottish nationalism to an all time high. Scotts can go or stay after that. Also that's not even mentioning the lords......
    Actually regardless of what the polls show on indyref they all show Scots comfortably oppose any referendum before Brexit, if Sturgeon tries it before a deal is done it will backfire on her.
  • Options
    theakestheakes Posts: 841
    Are we sure about the Derwent on Derby past election. The Council web site identifies two apparent more recent contests in 2015 and 2016 with the Lib Dem vote cascading right down to single figures.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,660
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    How does she do that? PMs don't have it in their power any more to call general elections
    There are ways and means. For example if they voted down their own budget, that would be one way around the fixed term?
    No it wouldn't.
    What about a Queens Speech?

    There must be some procedure to have an election?
    2/3 MPs vote for one, or government loses vote of no confidence and no alternate government is able to be formed in 2 weeks, IIRC.
    Ok, let's do that! :smiley:
    Lab won't play ball on the first, and engineering the latter is a bit messy to say the least. But we shall see - a lot of people would like one, but to my mind it would have to be done before triggering A50.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,970
    Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.

    Seconded
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    How does she do that? PMs don't have it in their power any more to call general elections
    There are ways and means. For example if they voted down their own budget, that would be one way around the fixed term?
    No it wouldn't.
    What about a Queens Speech?

    There must be some procedure to have an election?
    May needs to resign first up.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    When did he do that?
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    Get a man in?
    Nunu is sounding like Heseltine!
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    chestnut said:

    Waltham Cross and Harrow are interesting ones being Labour London suburbia.

    My vague instinct on Waltham Cross judged by nothing more than driving through it fairly regularly is that it won't be Corbyn friendly territory.

    I wouldn't be surprised by a Conservative gain.
  • Options
    RightChuckRightChuck Posts: 110
    murali_s said:

    O/T AGW.

    Yet another fruitcake in Trump's Government. Trump has really surrounded himself with the scum of the earth!

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/donald-trump-epa-head-global-warming-not-man-made-climate-change-denial-scott-pruitt-a7621271.html

    And there are people even here (not many I know) that support Trump - Jeez!

    You'll hate this then :)

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/03/09/lindzen-responds-to-the-mit-letter-objecting-to-his-petition-to-trump-to-withdraw-from-the-unfcc/
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    Cuts to in working benefits. £12.5bn worth.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,660
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017
    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    Are we adding the self employed to the ever growing list of untouchables? The NHS? Overseas aid? Pensioners' benefits?

    Driverless government.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    Then go and get a new mandate with a new manifesto. The old mandate didn't include raising taxes, breaking that basic promise (especially for such a small amount of money) is a poor idea, all things considered.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    I'm not sure. What I know is my NI went up last April. My pensions knowledge is limited but if the argument is that I'll get a slightly better pension when I'm 68 (?), well that's not good enough. I'd rather have the money now.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    edited March 2017

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    Well it doesn't seem that much different to this one tbh

    Changes were made to some peoples NI to make it fairer/bring it in line with others... spot the difference

    The partisan politics on this one is quite revolting. Hurrah for the MPs that haven't stooped to it.. Labour making a fuss about a progressive tax! They just oppose for oppositions sake
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,660

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    It was a manifesto for all the Tory MPs. I don't hold with this 'mandateless May' stuff, but if she wants a whole new programme for government, that probably does need a mandate - changing bits where needed would not.

    I'm fine with them abandoning the bits that don't work anymore, manifestos are not legally binding and it is not realistic for them to be inflexible even if they are great to start with, but it's a bit much for this government to claim, were it to do so, that they can abandon any pledges willy nilly because the PM has changed.

    They need to justify doing so. Brexit provides a reasonable justification in many instances I expect, but it is not a carte Blanche.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    edited March 2017
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on the Mansion Tax on properties over £2 million etc and the NHS, the national living wage and integrating healthcare and social care at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    chestnut said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    Are we adding the self employed to the ever growing list of untouchables? The NHS? Overseas aid? Pensioners' benefits?

    Driverless government.
    No, all I'm saying is that they shouldn't break the manifesto commitment so easily. Get a new mandate bx then raise the tax.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    Then go and get a new mandate with a new manifesto. The old mandate didn't include raising taxes, breaking that basic promise (especially for such a small amount of money) is a poor idea, all things considered.
    if we had a GE every time a party broke a promise we d have permanent elections
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunu said:

    May has to call a he if she can't even get the NI rise thru.

    Get a man in?
    International woman's day was yesterday..... time to move on. ;)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,970
    Anyway, better be off before my eyes go fuzzy.

    Interesting times ahead. Intrigued to see how Australia goes.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    Then go and get a new mandate with a new manifesto. The old mandate didn't include raising taxes, breaking that basic promise (especially for such a small amount of money) is a poor idea, all things considered.
    I think this change is too minor to merit a new mandate (and I'm adversely affected by it).
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,660
    edited March 2017
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on National Insurance and the NHS at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again
    Who drew it up was irrelevant if he endorsed it in my view. Harsh perhaps, but if it was a crap promise he should own up to that, if it was ok but not now viable he should own up to that (and has implicitly by suggesting this in the first place).

    That they were not running the campaign does not seem much of a defence to me. Either he believed it and if it was a silly promise then he is silly, or he's a hypocrite, or he didn't notice it was there and he's an idiot, or things have changed. Only the last makes changing position reasonable without undermining themselves too much before.

    It's not like the manifestos are created by random number generator - obviously not all MPs will support everything in them, but the leadership will make sure the stuff is acceptable to most of the party to defend.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040

    murali_s said:

    O/T AGW.

    Yet another fruitcake in Trump's Government. Trump has really surrounded himself with the scum of the earth!

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/donald-trump-epa-head-global-warming-not-man-made-climate-change-denial-scott-pruitt-a7621271.html

    And there are people even here (not many I know) that support Trump - Jeez!

    You'll hate this then :)

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/03/09/lindzen-responds-to-the-mit-letter-objecting-to-his-petition-to-trump-to-withdraw-from-the-unfcc/
    You trolling brother?

    FFS - this is from wattsupwiththat.com - you know what that is right?

    Let's look at a slightly more reputable 'news' channel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/feb/27/just-who-are-these-300-scientists-telling-trump-to-burn-the-climate.

    Jeez - don't know whether to laugh or cry?
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Derby Derwent more recent results
    2015 Lab 2107 UKIP 1336 Con 1165 LDem 349
    2016 Con 814 Lab 811 UKIP 660 LDem 155
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on the Mansion Tax on properties over £2 million etc and the NHS, the national living wage and integrating healthcare and social care at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again
    A very fair comment.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    murali_s said:

    O/T AGW.

    Yet another fruitcake in Trump's Government. Trump has really surrounded himself with the scum of the earth!

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/donald-trump-epa-head-global-warming-not-man-made-climate-change-denial-scott-pruitt-a7621271.html

    And there are people even here (not many I know) that support Trump - Jeez!

    He sounds like a very sensible man.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on the Mansion Tax on properties over £2 million etc and the NHS, the national living wage and integrating healthcare and social care at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again
    A very fair comment.
    Yes, compared to Corbyn Ed Miliband now looks like a titan
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Sean_F said:

    murali_s said:

    O/T AGW.

    Yet another fruitcake in Trump's Government. Trump has really surrounded himself with the scum of the earth!

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/donald-trump-epa-head-global-warming-not-man-made-climate-change-denial-scott-pruitt-a7621271.html

    And there are people even here (not many I know) that support Trump - Jeez!

    He sounds like a very sensible man.
    Lol

    He like you is a right-wing ignorant moron!
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    Then go and get a new mandate with a new manifesto. The old mandate didn't include raising taxes, breaking that basic promise (especially for such a small amount of money) is a poor idea, all things considered.
    I think this change is too minor to merit a new mandate (and I'm adversely affected by it).
    Add up all of the cumulative changes and u think a new mandate would be very helpful. Plus it would smooth the Brexit negotiations significantly if the party had a big majority.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The NI tax hike is about 10 days contribution to the EU.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,660
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    Then go and get a new mandate with a new manifesto. The old mandate didn't include raising taxes, breaking that basic promise (especially for such a small amount of money) is a poor idea, all things considered.
    I think this change is too minor to merit a new mandate (and I'm adversely affected by it).
    Add up all of the cumulative changes and u think a new mandate would be very helpful. Plus it would smooth the Brexit negotiations significantly if the party had a big majority.
    It would be convenient indeed - but the path to get there remains tricky if the government is to stick to its arbitrary deadlines.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on National Insurance and the NHS at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again
    Who drew it up was irrelevant if he endorsed it in my view. Harsh perhaps, but if it was a crap promise he should own up to that, if it was ok but not now viable he should own up to that (and has implicitly by have changed. Only the last makes changing position reasonable without undermining themselves too much before.

    It's not like the manifestos are created by random number generator - obviously not all MPs will support everything in them, but the leadership will make sure the stuff is acceptable to most of the party to defend.
    Well it would be interesting if Hammond got up and said 'our last manifesto was crap' but I think the likes of TSE may have more than a few strong words in response as will the rest of the Cameroons and much of the Tory right so I doubt he will do it
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    Then go and get a new mandate with a new manifesto. The old mandate didn't include raising taxes, breaking that basic promise (especially for such a small amount of money) is a poor idea, all things considered.
    How many times do you need this explained to you?

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on National Insurance and the NHS at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again
    Who drew it up was irrelevant if he endorsed it in my view. Harsh perhaps, but if it was a crap promise he should own up to that, if it was ok but not now viable he should own up to that (and has implicitly by have changed. Only the last makes changing position reasonable without undermining themselves too much before.

    It's not like the manifestos are created by random number generator - obviously not all MPs will support everything in them, but the leadership will make sure the stuff is acceptable to most of the party to defend.
    Well it would be interesting if Hammond got up and said 'our last manifesto was crap' but I think the likes of TSE may have more than a few strong words in response as will the rest of the Cameroons and much of the Tory right so I doubt he will do it
    When he implied that, regarding this NI change, I am pretty sure the camera panned to Osborne who did a kind of "acknowledged" face
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on the Mansion Tax on properties over £2 million etc and the NHS, the national living wage and integrating healthcare and social care at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again
    A very fair comment.
    Yes, compared to Corbyn Ed Miliband now looks like a titan
    True and with Ed Balls as shadow chancellor they at least had previous experience as government minister's .
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,322
    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    The change in dividend tax is sneaky too - IIRC correctly, the £5K tax-free dividend was just introduced last year to compensate for something else. Now it's being un-compensated. (Statement of interest: I wound up a family company this year, so benefited from what turns out to have been temporary help.)
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on the Mansion Tax on properties over £2 million etc and the NHS, the national living wage and integrating healthcare and social care at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again
    A very fair comment.
    Yes, compared to Corbyn Ed Miliband now looks like a titan
    True and with Ed Balls as shadow chancellor they at least had previous experience as government minister's .
    May and Hammond vs EdM and EdB... I am sure some Cameroons would abstain.. .or maybe even cross the PB floor!

    What would be the difference?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    Then go and get a new mandate with a new manifesto. The old mandate didn't include raising taxes, breaking that basic promise (especially for such a small amount of money) is a poor idea, all things considered.
    I think this change is too minor to merit a new mandate (and I'm adversely affected by it).
    Add up all of the cumulative changes and u think a new mandate would be very helpful. Plus it would smooth the Brexit negotiations significantly if the party had a big majority.
    There is no workable mechanism whereby a PM can call election without going through the charade of having a vote of confidence in itself.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    edited March 2017

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    Yes. Although the political fall out from that particular move would destroy whoever did it and would only delay the inevitable, it would be perfectly valid so long as they commanded the majority the MPs. Of course I seriously doubt the MPs would agree as it would mean the end of their careers as well.
  • Options
    RightChuckRightChuck Posts: 110
    murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    O/T AGW.

    Yet another fruitcake in Trump's Government. Trump has really surrounded himself with the scum of the earth!

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/donald-trump-epa-head-global-warming-not-man-made-climate-change-denial-scott-pruitt-a7621271.html

    And there are people even here (not many I know) that support Trump - Jeez!

    You'll hate this then :)

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/03/09/lindzen-responds-to-the-mit-letter-objecting-to-his-petition-to-trump-to-withdraw-from-the-unfcc/
    You trolling brother?

    FFS - this is from wattsupwiththat.com - you know what that is right?

    Let's look at a slightly more reputable 'news' channel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/feb/27/just-who-are-these-300-scientists-telling-trump-to-burn-the-climate.

    Jeez - don't know whether to laugh or cry?
    No, my ill-informed friend, it's a letter from Richard Lindzen to Trump, This is who Lindzen is:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Lindzen
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    Then go and get a new mandate with a new manifesto. The old mandate didn't include raising taxes, breaking that basic promise (especially for such a small amount of money) is a poor idea, all things considered.
    How many times do you need this explained to you?

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.
    Indeed.

    This is a sensible proposition. It will pass.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on the Mansion Tax on properties over £2 million etc and the NHS, the national living wage and integrating healthcare and social care at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again
    A very fair comment.
    Yes, compared to Corbyn Ed Miliband now looks like a titan
    True and with Ed Balls as shadow chancellor they at least had previous experience as government minister's .
    Yes and they also polled better too than Corbyn and McDonnell
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,581

    MaxPB said:

    .

    The change in dividend tax is sneaky too - IIRC correctly, the £5K tax-free dividend was just introduced last year to compensate for something else. Now it's being un-compensated. (Statement of interest: I wound up a family company this year, so benefited from what turns out to have been temporary help.)
    The buggering around with the tax on dividends by Gordon, George and Philip has completely wrecked the perfectly sensible logic of Corporation/Dividend tax. The idea of earnings only being taxed once has gone and we in effect have (cynically) double taxation now.

    Correct me if I'm wrong but when I was somewhat less grey than I am now the system was logical and set up so that the owners of a company (shareholders) paid tax on the company profits at the appropriate rate for their circumstances. A company would pay a dividend and pay Advanced Corporation Tax on that dividend. The shareholder would get a tax credit to set against their tax liability (Dividends being included in the income figure for tax). If they didn't pay tax they would get a refund of the tax credit. If they paid higher rate tax they would pay more. So the dividend part of the company profits were taxed once at the rate applicable to the shareholder. The company would pay Corporation Tax on their profits less the ACT already paid. That ensured that the profits not distributed also got taxed. If the company distributed as dividends more than the profit the ACT would exceed the Corporation Tax and the remainder carried forward.

    So appropriate tax paid and just once.

    Gordon cynically saw the opportunity to hit the pension funds by not allowing them to reclaim Dividend Tax Credit (set off was still allowed but not refunds). This also hit little old ladies who had little income but a few shares who also couldn't get the refund. The rest of us still did and of course we didn't notice the impact it had on our pension fund until years later.

    George promised to right this wrong. He even said he had done so when he abolished Dividend Credits. That was just not true. He just made it such that we all lost our tax credits and so we now had double taxation on company profits. However anyone earning less than £5,000 in dividends didn't get taxed again so for most it was still taxed once.

    Philip makes what appears to be a sensible argument that people with large shareholdings or distributing profits from personal companies by way of dividends get a huge tax free chunk. This isn't fair so has reduced it £2,000. That seems very reasonable but when you look at the history then what has really happened is that a huge amount of company profits will now be taxed twice.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    Cancelling the NI changes will lead to another set of media frothing about the low paid having to pay more so that the rich don't. It will also annoy millions on PAYE who will want their NI contributions at the lower rate.

    We've reached a stage where pretty much any change on anything leads to tantrums and that's all the more dangerous when governments are addicted to vote buying through tax cuts and spending increases.

    You're right about the jokes though.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on National Insurance and the NHS at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again
    Who drew it up was irrelevant if he endorsed it in my view. Harsh perhaps, but if it was a crap promise he should own up to that, if it was ok but not now viable he should own up to that (and has implicitly .
    Well it would be interesting if Hammond got up and said 'our last manifesto was crap' but I think the likes of TSE may have more than a few strong words in response as will the rest of the Cameroons and much of the Tory right so I doubt he will do it
    When he implied that, regarding this NI change, I am pretty sure the camera panned to Osborne who did a kind of "acknowledged" face
    I think in retrospect both Cameron and Osborne never expected a Tory majority so they could promise the earth and an EU referendum and then dump it all once they went back into Coalition with the LDs, which I think Cameron actually believed was the likely outcome
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
    Do you have evidence for that? UKIP is a busted flush.
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    chestnut said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    Are we adding the self employed to the ever growing list of untouchables? The NHS? Overseas aid? Pensioners' benefits?

    Driverless government.
    SE NICs need reform .A huge number of very highly paid people are abusing the current system.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    edited March 2017

    HYUFD said:

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
    Do you have evidence for that? UKIP is a busted flush.
    The evidence is every poll post Brexit has shown most Tory voters want hard Brexit and put controlling immigration over full membership of the single market, if the Tories went for soft Brexit in full or abandoned Brexit completely to stay in the EU and did not impose any controls on free movement at all UKIP would see a faster recovery than Lazarus. The only reason they are a busted flush is because, for the moment at least, May seems to be following their agenda anyway so there is little point in voting for them
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919

    HYUFD said:

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
    Do you have evidence for that? UKIP is a busted flush.
    UKIP is only a busted flush because we are leaving the EU. Were that to change UKIP or another party like it would very rapidly gain a huge amount of support. Actually more liukely the Tory party would fracture and a large part of it would form the successor to UKIP - hopefully without their rather archaic views on social issues.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029

    HYUFD said:

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
    Do you have evidence for that? UKIP is a busted flush.
    Particularly in circumstances where Brexit were proving calamitous and mainstream Tories were recanting. UKIP would be more fringe than ever.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,660
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on National Insurance and the NHS at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again

    It's not like the manifestos are created by random number generator - obviously not all MPs will support everything in them, but the leadership will make sure the stuff is acceptable to most of the party to defend.
    Well it would be interesting if Hammond got up and said 'our last manifesto was crap' but I think the likes of TSE may have more than a few strong words in response as will the rest of the Cameroons and much of the Tory right so I doubt he will do it
    nor do I, but it means other people can hardly make that defence for him to excuse breaking the promises in it. And he doesn't have to - if it is a good move, time has moved on to explain why now but not then.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029

    HYUFD said:

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
    Do you have evidence for that? UKIP is a busted flush.
    UKIP is only a busted flush because we are leaving the EU. Were that to change UKIP or another party like it would very rapidly gain a huge amount of support. Actually more liukely the Tory party would fracture and a large part of it would form the successor to UKIP - hopefully without their rather archaic views on social issues.
    You think that if their core platform - that leaving the EU is a good idea - were proven disastrously wrong and totally misconceived, there would be a surge of support for them?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    The mandate on that particular issue came from the recent referendum :)
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919

    HYUFD said:

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
    Do you have evidence for that? UKIP is a busted flush.
    UKIP is only a busted flush because we are leaving the EU. Were that to change UKIP or another party like it would very rapidly gain a huge amount of support. Actually more liukely the Tory party would fracture and a large part of it would form the successor to UKIP - hopefully without their rather archaic views on social issues.
    You think that if their core platform - that leaving the EU is a good idea - were proven disastrously wrong and totally misconceived, there would be a surge of support for them?
    That was not the proposition and nor is it going to happen.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,703
    Sean_F said:

    murali_s said:

    O/T AGW.

    Yet another fruitcake in Trump's Government. Trump has really surrounded himself with the scum of the earth!

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/donald-trump-epa-head-global-warming-not-man-made-climate-change-denial-scott-pruitt-a7621271.html

    And there are people even here (not many I know) that support Trump - Jeez!

    He sounds like a very sensible man.
    No he's a complete idiot.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on the Mansion Tax on properties over £2 million etc and the NHS, the national living wage and integrating healthcare and social care at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again
    A very fair comment.
    Yes, compared to Corbyn Ed Miliband now looks like a titan
    True and with Ed Balls as shadow chancellor they at least had previous experience as government minister's .
    Yes and they also polled better too than Corbyn and McDonnell
    Very true I never thought they would win a GE however it always felt competitive through out the period 2010 to 2015 even with the SNP domination after their referendum.I thought at the time there was mutual respect between Osborne and Balls through their adversity of how to deal with the aftermath of the financial crisis .
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    edited March 2017

    HYUFD said:

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
    Do you have evidence for that? UKIP is a busted flush.
    UKIP is only a busted flush because we are leaving the EU. Were that to change UKIP or another party like it would very rapidly gain a huge amount of support. Actually more liukely the Tory party would fracture and a large part of it would form the successor to UKIP - hopefully without their rather archaic views on social issues.
    Can you imagine how successful the SNP would have been had they won the referendum... then were not allowed to leave!!!!

    I reckon they would have won seats in England!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951

    HYUFD said:

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
    Do you have evidence for that? UKIP is a busted flush.
    UKIP is only a busted flush because we are leaving the EU. Were that to change UKIP or another party like it would very rapidly gain a huge amount of support. Actually more liukely the Tory party would fracture and a large part of it would form the successor to UKIP - hopefully without their rather archaic views on social issues.
    You think that if their core platform - that leaving the EU is a good idea - were proven disastrously wrong and totally misconceived, there would be a surge of support for them?
    Their core platform of limiting immigration will still have a lot of support amongst lower middle class and working class voters regardless of how Brexit turns out economically and they can add other populist policies onto that, Canada 1993 and France now show how a centre right party can be overtaken in a general election by a populist rightwing party, indeed in the 2014 Euro elections UKIP won and the Tories were third behind Labour, so UKIP have beaten the Tories before when Europe and immigration was a key issue
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on National Insurance and the NHS at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again

    It's not like the manifestos are created by random number generator - obviously not all MPs will support everything in them, but the leadership will make sure the stuff is acceptable to most of the party to defend.
    Well it would be interesting if Hammond got up and said 'our last manifesto was crap' but I think the likes of TSE may have more than a few strong words in response as will the rest of the Cameroons and much of the Tory right so I doubt he will do it
    nor do I, but it means other people can hardly make that defence for him to excuse breaking the promises in it. And he doesn't have to - if it is a good move, time has moved on to explain why now but not then.
    Certainly would not be much more 'TSE for Hammond' after that!
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
    Do you have evidence for that? UKIP is a busted flush.
    UKIP is only a busted flush because we are leaving the EU. Were that to change UKIP or another party like it would very rapidly gain a huge amount of support. Actually more liukely the Tory party would fracture and a large part of it would form the successor to UKIP - hopefully without their rather archaic views on social issues.
    Can you imagine how successful the SNP would have been had they won the referendum... then were not allowed to leave!!!!

    I reckon they would have won seats in England!
    Quite. I don't think William and Mike really understand human nature at all. A lot of those people now getting angry about the attempts to delay and stop Brexit were Remain voters. If there is one thing people really hate it is being asked a question and then ignored, no matter which way the answered. UKIP or its successor really would have a field day.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    It's already clear that Hammond is a left of centre CoE. If the Tories are serious about winning in 2020 (or possibly earlier), Mrs. May needs to appoint a replacement and soon.

    Nonsense - Hammond in post is a reason they might win!
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    murali_s said:

    Sean_F said:

    murali_s said:

    O/T AGW.

    Yet another fruitcake in Trump's Government. Trump has really surrounded himself with the scum of the earth!

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/donald-trump-epa-head-global-warming-not-man-made-climate-change-denial-scott-pruitt-a7621271.html

    And there are people even here (not many I know) that support Trump - Jeez!

    He sounds like a very sensible man.
    Lol

    He like you is a right-wing ignorant moron!
    You mustn't compound the fact that you have not the first idea about how science works, by being offensive. The question put to Pruitt was nonsensical: "Mr Pruitt, a lawyer, was asked if he thought it had been proven that carbon dioxide was the “primary control knob for climate”. The answer to that question is, no - on any view at all. We have no idea whether tweaking CO2 will have any real effect on climate change, even if we accept the basic AGW thesis.

    It is not your fault that you are thick and poorly educated and have no idea how science works, and I would not usually dream of pointing out those facts; but you really should not call people "morons" and "fruitcakes". Here is a link to a paper by a moronic fruitcake who seriously entertains the notion that "The case against science is straightforward: much of the
    scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue". The moronic fruitcake is editor-in-chief of the Lancet, of which you may have heard. His remarks are not confined to medical science, and in any case medical science is much, much easier than climate science because medical science can look at millions and millions of examples of the system they are studying, and climate scientists only have the one; and the incentives to arrive at a pre-ordained result are at least as strong in climate science as in medicine.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,660

    HYUFD said:

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
    Do you have evidence for that? UKIP is a busted flush.
    UKIP is only a busted flush because we are leaving the EU. Were that to change UKIP or another party like it would very rapidly gain a huge amount of support. Actually more liukely the Tory party would fracture and a large part of it would form the successor to UKIP - hopefully without their rather archaic views on social issues.
    You think that if their core platform - that leaving the EU is a good idea - were proven disastrously wrong and totally misconceived, there would be a surge of support for them?
    Even assuming a disaster which swayed enough former Leavers into such visible wish to recant that the the government were able to contemplate reversing position (assuming that is legally possible), and assuming the Tories don't immediately split as a result, there would be plenty of remaining leavers (if you'll forgive the expression) who would not agree it was a disaster, and would be outraged at the reverse in position, and they or an equivalent would pick up much mor support.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    Then go and get a new mandate with a new manifesto. The old mandate didn't include raising taxes, breaking that basic promise (especially for such a small amount of money) is a poor idea, all things considered.
    How many times do you need this explained to you?

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.
    The government and Conservative party won it's electoral mandate with the 2015 manifesto. That's what I voted for and my representative in Enfield Southgate (David Burrowes) campaigned on it. It didn't include grammar schools, raising NI or T-Levels. The voters are getting something different to what we voted for in 2015. We elected the government to carry out it's manifesto, the elected government has reneged on some of those commitments and one very big one, it now needs a new election to renew it's mandate for the new programme. The leader's mandate is completely different to the government and party's mandate to govern
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    edited March 2017

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
    Do you have evidence for that? UKIP is a busted flush.
    UKIP is only a busted flush because we are leaving the EU. Were that to change UKIP or another party like it would very rapidly gain a huge amount of support. Actually more liukely the Tory party would fracture and a large part of it would form the successor to UKIP - hopefully without their rather archaic views on social issues.
    Can you imagine how successful the SNP would have been had they won the referendum... then were not allowed to leave!!!!

    I reckon they would have won seats in England!
    Quite. I don't think William and Mike really understand human nature at all. A lot of those people now getting angry about the attempts to delay and stop Brexit were Remain voters. If there is one thing people really hate it is being asked a question and then ignored, no matter which way the answered. UKIP or its successor really would have a field day.
    Yes, it would be SNP 2015 on steroids if the government went into the next general election committed to staying in the EU and overturning the referendum result, Farage would probably end up PM!
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    HYUFD said:

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.

    Would you say the same if May were removed and a new Remain PM stopped the Brexit process?
    That Remain PM could only ever be a Labour moderate or LD, not a Tory, so that is not going to happen while we have a Tory majority in Parliament given most of their voters all voted Leave and would head off to UKIP like a shot if they abandoned Brexit
    Do you have evidence for that? UKIP is a busted flush.
    Only for so long as the politicians implement the British people's democratic decision.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly and for a paltry sum of money. Additionally it is symbolically poor to raise taxes on self employed people, the very people we need to be enterprising and make the world turn for us after Brexit. Even though the sums are pretty minor, it sends the wrong message that hard work will be penalised by the Tory party.

    All in all, a poor policy played poorly. Less time thinking up jokes, more time thinking through policy ramifications please Phil.

    How else are we going to pay for the extra funds Hammond has announced for social care and which are urgently needed? It is not his fault Osborne and Cameron produced an Alice in Wonderland manifesto committing to no tax increases, cuts in IHT, protection of the family home as an asset and ringfenced funding for the NHS and funding for social care
    If he didn't have a problem standing under and defending that manifesto then yes, it is his fault in part. He cannot say it was a terrible manifesto when he presumably defended it to the hilt at the time, all he could say is it is not viable now, but that is not his fault as it is due to circumstance .
    Well he could have resigned I suppose but it was still not him who drew the manifesto up, the Tories would still likely have won without such an absurd set of promises and fair play to Ed Miliband who on the Mansion Tax on properties over £2 million etc and the NHS, the national living wage and integrating healthcare and social care at least was honest even if he lost the battle some of his ideas are clearly coming into their own again
    A very fair comment.
    Yes, compared to Corbyn Ed Miliband now looks like a titan
    True and with Ed Balls as shadow chancellor they at least had previous experience as government minister's .
    Yes and they also polled better too than Corbyn and McDonnell
    Very true I never thought they would win a GE however it always felt competitive through out the period 2010 to 2015 even with the SNP domination after their referendum.I thought at the time there was mutual respect between Osborne and Balls through their adversity of how to deal with the aftermath of the financial crisis .
    Yes, they were all heavyweights regardless of political differences
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,660
    edited March 2017
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Having had a day to think about it, I think the government should do a U-turn but at the same time cancel Osborne's Class 4 elimination. No rise in NI, but also no cuts for anyone. I don't think the party should break manifesto commitments so lightly.

    No one was bothered when Osborne put up my NI and broke the manifesto pledge.
    I thought it had already been established by others on here that he didn't.

    That said I don't consider this to be a broken manifesto pledge. We have a new post Brexit administration in place and I don't believe that they should be bound by the manifesto pledges made by a PM who is no longer even an MP.
    Then go and get a new mandate with a new manifesto. The old mandate didn't include raising taxes, breaking that basic promise (especially for such a small amount of money) is a poor idea, all things considered.
    How many times do you need this explained to you?

    A PM's mandate does not come from a manifesto or from an election result. It comes from being able to command the support of the majority of the MPs in Parliament. As long as those MPs agree to whatever is being proposed then that is all the mandate a PM needs.
    The government and Conservative party won it's electoral mandate with the 2015 manifesto. That's what I voted for and my representative in Enfield Southgate (David Burrowes) campaigned on it. It didn't include grammar schools, raising NI or T-Levels. The voters are getting something different to what we voted for in 2015. We elected the government to carry out it's manifesto, the elected government has reneged on some of those commitments and one very big one, it now needs a new election to renew it's mandate for the new programme. The leader's mandate is completely different to the government and party's mandate to govern
    If we had new GEs every time there was some major change in position (and plenty seem to be saying this is not that big a change), we'd rarely stop having them, it is simply not practical just because of small (even if, let us assume, significant) parts of the manifesto being dropped, perhaps for good reason.
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