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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Corbyn continues he’ll be remembered as the selfish bed-blocker who put himself ahead of LAB’s survival

Front cover of latest edition of Prospect

Read the full story here

foxinsoxuk

first!

Corbyn is going to destroy Labour, but will still refuse to accept the blame. His supporters will still blame tbe "Blairites". We have a one party state, albeit one where the PM lets her cabinet members swing in the wind.

Sandpit

Distant second like Corbyn's Labour

SquareRoot

its no use moaning about Labour, those Labour voters who do care need to get up and actually do something/ retake the party over.. Labour voters are switching to Tory, there ain't much time left.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

The Lib Dems must be delighted. Corbyn presents them an easy way to make gains regardless of whether they can lay a glove on the Government.

felix

If there is such a gap why are the likes of the LDs unable to fill it? Labour's issues go well beyond Corbyn - they have lacked a credible policy programme for a number of years. Their only interest is in spending money and 'saving' the NHS. They have completely lost the 60+ voter already.

There is an anti-Tory vote out there - shame on the other parties for their inability to harness it.

Scrapheap_as_was

Red Tory thread.......

Vinny

Interesting to read, but characteristically bad grammar from Mr Smithson.

tlg86

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

The Lib Dems must be delighted. Corbyn presents them an easy way to make gains regardless of whether they can lay a glove on the Government.

Really? If that was the case the Lib Dems should have been challenging in Stoke.

Fishing

This thread is interesting, but imho exaggreates somewhat the probability of a complete Labour collapse. There's no obvious left-of-centre replacement for Labour in England as there was in Scotland:

- UKIP has just lost its official raison d'etre, and is even more faction-ridden than Labour
- the Greens - well, if you think Corbyn is unelectable...
- the LibDems are still polling a third of what they won six years ago in the GE.

It took 40 years for the SNP to build a brand and infrastructure and achieve its spectacular successes of the last few years.

There's also no obvious single-issue cause for an alternative opposition to coalesce around, with the possible exception of anti-Brexit. But that poses huge problems as it is time-limited and has just lost a referendum. If the NHS collapses spectacularly, that might substitute, but that is still a big IF.

So I imagine Labour will limp on for a few years yet, even under Jezza.

CarlottaVance

foxinsoxuk said:

the PM lets her cabinet members swing in the wind.

Perhaps they should follow Nick Clegg's advice?

‘The honest thing to do for Hammond, and knowing him it is what I suspect he would like to do, is to dump on his predecessors and say Osborne and Cameron were wrong,’ said the Sheffield Hallam MP, arguing the Chancellor was constrained by Mr Cameron and George Osborne’s Election manifesto ruling out tax rises.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4305250/Dump-blame-National-Insurance-rises-Cameron.html

Sandpit

SquareRoot said:

its no use moaning about Labour, those Labour voters who do care need to get up and actually do something/ retake the party over.. Labour voters are switching to Tory, there ain't much time left.

Maybe if the sight of a few thousand Lab > Con switchers in Copeland can be explained away by the Faithful, they'll have a lot more explaining to do when it's several hundred thousand people doing the same in the May locals.

Maybe Andy Street beating Sion Simon in the West Mids might get what's left of Labour outside Islington to wake up to the GE annihilation that's coming? Or maybe not.

CarlottaVance

FPT

Long read from Prospect on Labour:

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/labour-party-crisis-red-sag-jeremy-corbyn

SquareRoot

Vinny said:

Interesting to read, but characteristically bad grammar from Mr Smithson.

If you don't like it, please collect your refund on your way out.

Morris_Dancer

I imagine this is on last thread, but just seeing some bits and pieces on Twitter about rioting in the Netherlands, the suggestion being (Turks it was) that it'll benefit Wilders.

Don't have a dog in the Dutch election, but thought it worth mentioning.

nielh

Re the debate by @bobajob earlier in the week about dodgy business expenses and the self employed:

HMRC have released a list of the most outlandish items which have been claimed as expenses. These include:

Holiday flights to the Caribbean
Luxury watches as Christmas gifts for staff - from a company with no employees
International flights for dental treatment ahead of business meetings
Pet food for a Shih Tzu 'guard dog'
Armani jeans as protective clothing for painter and decorator
Cost of regular Friday night 'bonding sessions' - running into thousands of pounds.
Underwear - for personal use
A garden shed for private use - plus the costs of the space it takes up in the garden
Betting slips
Caravan rental for the Easter weekend.

Ruth Owen, HMRC Director General of Customer Services, said:

'Year after year we receive a number of ludicrous expense claims, ranging from international holiday flights to expensive designer clothing, which we would never uphold. Why should the honest taxpayer pick up the bill for others? HMRC will only accept those claims which are genuine, such as legitimate travel expenses or the cost of tools for the job.'

https://www.bidwellsaccounts.co.uk/news/latest-news-for-business/archive/news-article/2017/March/self-assessment-expense-claims

RobD

How long has this thread been here?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 86, I didn't say the Lib Dems would make gains everywhere. And you're right Stoke was disappointing. However, in red-yellow seats, the Lib Dems should be rubbing their hands together and looking for substantial progress.

RobD

Bercow "keeps buggering on"... indeed he does.

Jonathan

Why are the Lib Dems doing even worse than Labour? Surely if Labour are dead, Farron's mob should be flourishing. And yet they're stuck on 10% behind UKIP.

nielh

On topic: Labour wont win under Corbyn but the labour party won't die either. The national insurance debacle was just one example of the problems that the tories will run in over the next months and years. Corbyn will remain there as leader of the opposition and the failings of the government will be misconstrued as the achievements of the opposition. I am convinced that the current position is labours floor but as always only time will tell.

RobD

Jonathan said:

Why are the Lib Dems doing even worse than Labour? Surely if Labour are dead, Farron's mob should be flourishing. And yet they're stuck on 10% behind UKIP.

You must have missed the reports on recent Dunny-on-the-Wold by-elections...

tlg86

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, I didn't say the Lib Dems would make gains everywhere. And you're right Stoke was disappointing. However, in red-yellow seats, the Lib Dems should be rubbing their hands together and looking for substantial progress.

And how many red-yellow seats are there? Is it in double figures?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 86, no idea.

Let's say it just is (10). That'd still double the size of the PLDP.

Mr. D, I wonder if the cantankerous gnome still favours electronic voting, given warnings (think it was on the front page of one of the papers) about Russian hackers.

foxinsoxuk

Jonathan said:

Why are the Lib Dems doing even worse than Labour? Surely if Labour are dead, Farron's mob should be flourishing. And yet they're stuck on 10% behind UKIP.

It is hard to make sense of recent polling adjustments until there are real elections to calibrate against once more. The May locals will probably be the next opportunity.

YBarddCwsc

Parties do not die.

The Canadian Conservatives went from 152 seats to 2 in the Federal Election in 1993. Just over a decade later, they were the largest party again & supplied the Premier, who then ran Canada for a decade.

In 2011, the NDP pushed the Liberals into third place for the first time. The talk was of the Death of the Liberals. Look what happened after a dusty, bumbling academic (Ignatieff) was replaced by a personable, charismatic young leader (Trudeau).

And, in this time, Quebec went from complete domination by the Bloc Quebecois (54 seats, every French- majority speaking riding in 1993) to just 4 in 2011.

Conclusions: (i) Labour will not die. (ii) Labour could recover very quickly with the party coalescing around the right leader. (iii) The SNP probably have a decade or two at the top of Scottish politics before -- as always -- the pendulum back-swings.

Monksfield

Corbyn is partly to blame for Labour's woes and yes, he must go. As much because of his poor judgement and inability to lead or play the political game as anything else.

However, getting rid of him will not be an instant palliative, Labour's problems are greatly compounded by the centre and right of the party having no clear direction or conviction. Corbyn is but a symptom of this.

Jonathan

YBarddCwsc said:

Parties do not die.

The Liberals did.

Morris_Dancer

F1: only a small note, but I would've expected Vettel's odds to perhaps tighten from 4.5. Instead (Ladbrokes' odds) they've lengthened to 5. Suggests people are unconvinced Ferrari really are up to task.

RobD

tlg86 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, I didn't say the Lib Dems would make gains everywhere. And you're right Stoke was disappointing. However, in red-yellow seats, the Lib Dems should be rubbing their hands together and looking for substantial progress.

And how many red-yellow seats are there? Is it in double figures?

Not too many. There are three LD seats in Labour's top 100 targets for the next election, and about twenty-eight Labour seats in the LD's top 100 targets (the 28th being Lady Nugee's seat.

YBarddCwsc

Jonathan said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Parties do not die.

The Liberals did.

No they didn't. They jointly ran the Gov't 2010-2015. They will be back again.

(Dates edited).

Jonathan

YBarddCwsc said:

Jonathan said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Parties do not die.

The Liberals did.

No they didn't. They jointly ran the Gov't 2005-2010. They will be back again.

Eh?

RobD

YBarddCwsc said:

Jonathan said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Parties do not die.

The Liberals did.

No they didn't. They jointly ran the Gov't 2005-2010. They will be back again.

Members of the Liberal Party would disagree with you!

As for parties dying - how about NSDAP?

MarqueeMark

Just spent a few days with a couple of families in the Midlands, both of which are ex-Labour Party members, both with a visceral anger at what Corbyn is doing to the Party. Neither can see what it is going to take to bring them bold to the fold - they each said the new members are just impervious to any form of political debate that will get them to acknowledge change is needed at the top.

I tried to make sympathetic noises. I really tried.....

PlatoSaid

I've been following politics in Canada over the last few months and surprised by the rise in feeling that their country is also on the wrong path.

This captures it well

http://m.torontosun.com/2017/03/11/the-truth-about-populism-in-canada?token=efded96b6274b977581676cc68d3b0ec

Monksfield

tlg86 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, I didn't say the Lib Dems would make gains everywhere. And you're right Stoke was disappointing. However, in red-yellow seats, the Lib Dems should be rubbing their hands together and looking for substantial progress.

And how many red-yellow seats are there? Is it in double figures?

The Liblab battlefield is an irrelevance. As ever, the Libdems need to target winnable Tory seats where they remain the main alternative.

YBarddCwsc

RobD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Jonathan said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Parties do not die.

The Liberals did.

No they didn't. They jointly ran the Gov't 2005-2010. They will be back again.

Members of the Liberal Party would disagree with you!

As for parties dying - how about NSDAP?

Do you not think NSDAP is a rather unusual example?

The Liberals evolved. As did, to be fair, the Canadian Conservatives in my example as they merged with the Reform Party.

RobD

YBarddCwsc said:

RobD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Jonathan said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Parties do not die.

The Liberals did.

No they didn't. They jointly ran the Gov't 2005-2010. They will be back again.

Members of the Liberal Party would disagree with you!

As for parties dying - how about NSDAP?

Do you not think NSDAP is a rather unusual example?

The Liberals evolved. As did, to be fair, the Canadian Conservatives in my example as they merged with the Reform Party.

Yeah, I was being cheeky.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, that comment reminds me of Trudeau's tribute when Fidel Castro popped his clogs.

MarqueeMark

Monksfield said:

tlg86 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, I didn't say the Lib Dems would make gains everywhere. And you're right Stoke was disappointing. However, in red-yellow seats, the Lib Dems should be rubbing their hands together and looking for substantial progress.

And how many red-yellow seats are there? Is it in double figures?

The Liblab battlefield is an irrelevance. As ever, the Libdems need to target winnable Tory seats where they remain the main alternative.

The LibDems alternative is as Sensible Labour - a solid, dependable centre-left Party that can impose it's will on Tory coalition partners until it is able to kill off Labour and one day get majority Govt. on its own.

Or they can continue to fanny about, trying to be all things to all voters.

Nigelb

CarlottaVance said:

foxinsoxuk said:

the PM lets her cabinet members swing in the wind.

Perhaps they should follow Nick Clegg's advice?

‘The honest thing to do for Hammond, and knowing him it is what I suspect he would like to do, is to dump on his predecessors and say Osborne and Cameron were wrong,’ said the Sheffield Hallam MP, arguing the Chancellor was constrained by Mr Cameron and George Osborne’s Election manifesto ruling out tax rises.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4305250/Dump-blame-National-Insurance-rises-Cameron.html

Perhaps they ought to consider what collective responsibility really means, rather than spinning against each other ?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/12/bad-blood-flows-neighbours-downing-street-philip-hammond-theresa-may-budget

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Mark, hmm. Given Farron's leading, perhaps I was a shade optimistic...

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

The Lib Dems must be delighted. Corbyn presents them an easy way to make gains regardless of whether they can lay a glove on the Government.

Good morning, Mr.D.
Your presence has inspired me to post a thought provoking Atlantic article on Plato:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/04/making-athens-great-again/517791/

Charles

While the membership wants him in place, Corbyn's not really a bedblocker is he? He's just serving at their pleasure.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Jonathan said:

Why are the Lib Dems doing even worse than Labour? Surely if Labour are dead, Farron's mob should be flourishing. And yet they're stuck on 10% behind UKIP.

A lack of convincing bar charts?

MarqueeMark

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mark, hmm. Given Farron's leading, perhaps I was a shade optimistic...

Oh, I don't think Farron is the man for that job. But they aren't exactly spoilt for choice.

RobD

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, that comment reminds me of Trudeau's tribute when Fidel Castro popped his clogs.

Trudeau went up in my estimation when he ditched electoral reform and decided to retain the glorious FPTP voting system

Jonathan

IMO Farron was a good bet as leader right up until the moment Labour chose Corbyn and outbid them.

They should find a way to retire Farron and promote Lamb.

timmo

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, I didn't say the Lib Dems would make gains everywhere. And you're right Stoke was disappointing. However, in red-yellow seats, the Lib Dems should be rubbing their hands together and looking for substantial progress.

The trouble for the LDs is that they only really seem to be both interested and effective in contests with the Tories. They dont look to have the appetite or machinery to take Lab on for some reason. This could be their undoing

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: only a small note, but I would've expected Vettel's odds to perhaps tighten from 4.5. Instead (Ladbrokes' odds) they've lengthened to 5. Suggests people are unconvinced Ferrari really are up to task.

Right now Hamilton is great value at anything above evens. The main dangers would be either that he gets injured, or that one of his opponents puts their whole team's development focus onto only one car - a la Ferrari and Schumacher a few years ago.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B, just read it quickly. Worth noting Pericles advocated Athens not to move to a second theatre of war and, essentially, grind down Sparta. Athens had its boot on Sparta's throat until they stupidly threw vast resources into Sicily.

Interesting article

Ishmael_Z

Jonathan said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Parties do not die.

The Liberals did.

It's about brands. Labour is probably worth enough as a brand to take over, parasitise, hollow out and use to sell something quite different like Blairism. OTOH it may turn out to be like Woolworths or BHS - iconic, beloved, etc etc etc but turns out to be not worth reanimating on the grounds of not really having had much of a point for the past 30 years.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, you sound very confident the Mercedes will be the fastest car.

Mr. Timmo, that's a good point.

Mr. Jonathan, I partly agree. I always would've gone for Lamb, but Farron (as a lefty) is utterly outflanked by Captain Communism.

Mr. D, stopped clocks...

MarqueeMark

Ishmael_Z said:

Jonathan said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Parties do not die.

The Liberals did.

It's about brands. Labour is probably worth enough as a brand to take over, parasitise, hollow out and use to sell something quite different like Blairism. OTOH it may turn out to be like Woolworths or BHS - iconic, beloved, etc etc etc but turns out to be not worth reanimating on the grounds of not really having had much of a point for the past 30 years.

Labour - the Death of Pick'N'Mix Politics?

SquareRoot

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: only a small note, but I would've expected Vettel's odds to perhaps tighten from 4.5. Instead (Ladbrokes' odds) they've lengthened to 5. Suggests people are unconvinced Ferrari really are up to task.

Right now Hamilton is great value at anything above evens. The main dangers would be either that he gets injured, or that one of his opponents puts their whole team's development focus onto only one car - a la Ferrari and Schumacher a few years ago.

Mr Sandpit et al

I think you were one of those who commented on my recent trip to North Cyprus. I sent a pic to TSE to upload (no idea if he did) but I did get to see the donkeys at the end of the panhandle. and they liked the carrots we fed them, but there was not a hint of getting a red rosette on them!!


N Cyprus is largely unspoilt and a very pleasant holiday destination. Everyone was polite kind and happy to help. The ruins as Salamis are amazing.

Monksfield

MarqueeMark said:

Monksfield said:

tlg86 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, I didn't say the Lib Dems would make gains everywhere. And you're right Stoke was disappointing. However, in red-yellow seats, the Lib Dems should be rubbing their hands together and looking for substantial progress.

And how many red-yellow seats are there? Is it in double figures?

The Liblab battlefield is an irrelevance. As ever, the Libdems need to target winnable Tory seats where they remain the main alternative.

The LibDems alternative is as Sensible Labour - a solid, dependable centre-left Party that can impose it's will on Tory coalition partners until it is able to kill off Labour and one day get majority Govt. on its own.

Or they can continue to fanny about, trying to be all things to all voters.

Your last sentence neatly sums up the area of risk the Tories are currently operating in. With May killing any emerging policy of which the tabloids don't approve.

It may paper over the cracks for a while but as soon as real decisions need to be made... But hey, it's not like there are any massive issues to deal with at the moment.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Root, sounds like you had a splendid time. I do like old ruins.

PlatoSaid

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, that comment reminds me of Trudeau's tribute when Fidel Castro popped his clogs.

The M103 proposals are widely seen as a defacto blasphemy law just for Muslims. Trudeau talking about being a country without an identity just left me gobsmacked.

But he's pretty. Urgh.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, you sound very confident the Mercedes will be the fastest car.

Well, if you look at their pace compared with that of their customer teams, it's hard to think that they have not shown their true performance. The question is not just how much pace do they have in hand, but how much Ferrari might also been hiding.
Another point to consider is that Mercedes didn't seem to arrive at a perfect setup during testing (and I think the drivers commented on this), whereas the Ferrari was, by all accounts, absolutely planted around the track.
Is the Ferrari a fundamentally better balanced package, or will Merc turn up in Australia, dial the car in, and be a second clear of the rest again ? At this stage, anyone's guess.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, it's cretinous in the extreme.

Mr. B, maybe, the Ferraris have interesting developments in both the aerodynamic and engine departments, though, and Vettel's dominant period had higher downforce than the last few years (ie more like the new regulations).

I agree very much with your comments on balance. Bottas said on the last day, I think, that not all the new parts Mercedes tried worked or getting the balance right was tricky.

Yorkcity

Corbyn has had a thread a day on here for two years I guess.Saying he must go. Corbyn and supporters obviously do not read it..I think these threads are just now becoming repeat your thoughts ad nauseam.

SimonStClare

The Labour party are political bed-blockers, too weak to succeed, too strong to die.

OldKingCole

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, that comment reminds me of Trudeau's tribute when Fidel Castro popped his clogs.

Trudeau went up in my estimation when he ditched electoral reform and decided to retain the glorious FPTP voting system

He hasn’t, as I read it. Thev’re more or less decided that it should be part of a package, including Commons reform. Their equivalent of PMQ’s sounds about like ours.

Jonathan

The Corbyn Labour story is boring. There is no new information and there hasn't been for months (with the exception of Copeland - which wasn't a massive surprise)

Looking more broadly, the polls suggest a wider range of stories. The fact the Lib Dems are stuck despite Labour's woes deserves some examination.

MarqueeMark

Monksfield said:

MarqueeMark said:

Monksfield said:

tlg86 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, I didn't say the Lib Dems would make gains everywhere. And you're right Stoke was disappointing. However, in red-yellow seats, the Lib Dems should be rubbing their hands together and looking for substantial progress.

And how many red-yellow seats are there? Is it in double figures?

The Liblab battlefield is an irrelevance. As ever, the Libdems need to target winnable Tory seats where they remain the main alternative.

The LibDems alternative is as Sensible Labour - a solid, dependable centre-left Party that can impose it's will on Tory coalition partners until it is able to kill off Labour and one day get majority Govt. on its own.

Or they can continue to fanny about, trying to be all things to all voters.

Your last sentence neatly sums up the area of risk the Tories are currently operating in. With May killing any emerging policy of which the tabloids don't approve.

It may paper over the cracks for a while but as soon as real decisions need to be made... But hey, it's not like there are any massive issues to deal with at the moment.

I think that the LibDems have the potential to win in far more seats than Labour do. I can see the LibDems being a replacement for Labour. But they don't have the right leader, and they don't seem to have the ambition.

foxinsoxuk

I see the far right populists have struck out in Australia:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/840846077469253632

Theuniondivvie

RobD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Jonathan said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Parties do not die.

The Liberals did.

No they didn't. They jointly ran the Gov't 2005-2010. They will be back again.

Members of the Liberal Party would disagree with you!

As for parties dying - how about NSDAP?

RobD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Jonathan said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Parties do not die.

The Liberals did.

No they didn't. They jointly ran the Gov't 2005-2010. They will be back again.

Members of the Liberal Party would disagree with you!

As for parties dying - how about NSDAP?

If the Nazi party hadn't been made illegal, it's depressing to think how much support it would have retained then and now.

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Foxinsox, Australia has a very strong line on migration, doesn't it? If so, that makes it thousands of miles away (ahem) from most European nations.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, it's cretinous in the extreme.

Mr. B, maybe, the Ferraris have interesting developments in both the aerodynamic and engine departments, though, and Vettel's dominant period had higher downforce than the last few years (ie more like the new regulations).

I agree very much with your comments on balance. Bottas said on the last day, I think, that not all the new parts Mercedes tried worked or getting the balance right was tricky.

Anyway, the guys who do this for a living agree - at this point, we just don't know (which is why the Ferrari odds were/are tempting):
http://www.motorsportmagazine.com/opinion/f1/testing-times

OldKingCole

MarqueeMark said:

Monksfield said:

MarqueeMark said:

Monksfield said:

tlg86 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, I didn't say the Lib Dems would make gains everywhere. And you're right Stoke was disappointing. However, in red-yellow seats, the Lib Dems should be rubbing their hands together and looking for substantial progress.

And how many red-yellow seats are there? Is it in double figures?

The Liblab battlefield is an irrelevance. As ever, the Libdems need to target winnable Tory seats where they remain the main alternative.

The LibDems alternative is as Sensible Labour - a solid, dependable centre-left Party that can impose it's will on Tory coalition partners until it is able to kill off Labour and one day get majority Govt. on its own.

Or they can continue to fanny about, trying to be all things to all voters.

Your last sentence neatly sums up the area of risk the Tories are currently operating in. With May killing any emerging policy of which the tabloids don't approve.

It may paper over the cracks for a while but as soon as real decisions need to be made... But hey, it's not like there are any massive issues to deal with at the moment.

I think that the LibDems have the potential to win in far more seats than Labour do. I can see the LibDems being a replacement for Labour. But they don't have the right leader, and they don't seem to have the ambition.

Isn’t it the old story about mistakes. ‘Making a mistake’ requires the ‘mistaker’ to undertake ten equal actions to get to where they were before. So it is the with LibDems. The Coalition was handled somewhat ineptly, and they underestimated the extent to which Cameron and Osborne were prepared to hang them out to dry ....... be given responsibility for apparently bad decisions.
I fear that Farron get, and will continue to get a bad press because he’s not a ‘metropolitan’; Northerner, went to a Northern, unfashionable, university and so on.

RobD

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, that comment reminds me of Trudeau's tribute when Fidel Castro popped his clogs.

Trudeau went up in my estimation when he ditched electoral reform and decided to retain the glorious FPTP voting system

He hasn’t, as I read it. Thev’re more or less decided that it should be part of a package, including Commons reform. Their equivalent of PMQ’s sounds about like ours.

I thought that reason was there was no consensus what the new voting system should be?

SquareRoot

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Root, sounds like you had a splendid time. I do like old ruins.

Indeed and we will go back for another visit.. perhaps April is a better month.. only18c or thereabouts but better than the UK !


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salamis,_Cyprus

Dura_Ace

foxinsoxuk said:

I see the far right populists have struck out in Australia:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/840846077469253632

PHON very much traded on being outsiders then did a preference deal with the Libs a couple of weeks before the election which hurt them alot. In WA the party, not the voter, directs preferences in the upper house so a PHON was very much a vote for the despised incumbent. I suspect they were momentarily seduced by the glamour of a seat at the top table when they took the ill-advised deal.

ThomasNashe

I used to have a certain admiration for Corbyn as a hard-working, long-standing constituency MP. Now I entirely loathe him.

AlastairMeeks

After Jeremy Corbyn's extraordinary intervention in Scotland, the dam seems to be developing cracks.

ThreeQuidder

timmo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, I didn't say the Lib Dems would make gains everywhere. And you're right Stoke was disappointing. However, in red-yellow seats, the Lib Dems should be rubbing their hands together and looking for substantial progress.

The trouble for the LDs is that they only really seem to be both interested and effective in contests with the Tories. They dont look to have the appetite or machinery to take Lab on for some reason. This could be their undoing

Hence the strategic disaster of the 2005 "decapitation" strategy, from which they've never recovered.

Sean_F

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, just read it quickly. Worth noting Pericles advocated Athens not to move to a second theatre of war and, essentially, grind down Sparta. Athens had its boot on Sparta's throat until they stupidly threw vast resources into Sicily.

Interesting article

Sparta couldn't lose, after winning the Battle of Mantinea; but, Athens could have achieved a score draw, given it's control of the sea, even after Sicily. They threw away one opportunity for peace after another.

ThomasNashe

ThreeQuidder said:

timmo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, I didn't say the Lib Dems would make gains everywhere. And you're right Stoke was disappointing. However, in red-yellow seats, the Lib Dems should be rubbing their hands together and looking for substantial progress.

The trouble for the LDs is that they only really seem to be both interested and effective in contests with the Tories. They dont look to have the appetite or machinery to take Lab on for some reason. This could be their undoing

Hence the strategic disaster of the 2005 "decapitation" strategy, from which they've never recovered.

Didn't recover to the extent of being in government from 2010-15?

foxinsoxuk

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Foxinsox, Australia has a very strong line on migration, doesn't it? If so, that makes it thousands of miles away (ahem) from most European nations.

Per capita, Australia gets more than twice the number of immigrants that we do, with Asia now being an increasing proportion.

AlastairMeeks

Meanwhile, Downing Street sounds as if it needs a peace wall:

https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/840849309356691456

Dura_Ace

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Foxinsox, Australia has a very strong line on migration, doesn't it? If so, that makes it thousands of miles away (ahem) from most European nations.

Migration is very much accepted as an unqualified social benefit. However it's only a very particular type of immigration that's voter friendly and that's skilled, permanent migration. Migration of refugees is wildly unpopular and governments (Gillard) that don't control it will be ruthlessly punished by the electorate.

dr_spyn

Sadiq Khan nominating Corbyn to get the widest possible debate, doesn't seem to have necessary worked to Labour's advantage.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33127323

John Mann got it right. "So to demonstrate our desire never to win again, Islington's Jeremy Corbyn is now a Labour leadership candidate."

kle4

Yorkcity said:

Corbyn has had a thread a day on here for two years I guess.Saying he must go. Corbyn and supporters obviously do not read it..I think these threads are just now becoming repeat your thoughts ad nauseam.

Well yes, but it is one of those things that those who aren't corbynites cannot quite believe how he us still there. Felix makes a good point that the lds aren't taking advantage and fishing a good one that despite all thus the death knell is not as inevitable for Labour as it seems, but it is still incredible.

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, that comment reminds me of Trudeau's tribute when Fidel Castro popped his clogs.

Trudeau went up in my estimation when he ditched electoral reform and decided to retain the glorious FPTP voting system

He hasn’t, as I read it. Thev’re more or less decided that it should be part of a package, including Commons reform. Their equivalent of PMQ’s sounds about like ours.

I thought that reason was there was no consensus what the new voting system should be?

That was the stated reason, but it wasn't very credible. Deciding they want it to be part of a wider package makes dropping it seem less of a broken promise, particularly if fewer other parties support other parts of the package and so can be blamed for causing problems.

Simplest explanation seems best, and given you could stagger reforms, the simple answer is they decided, since they won, that voting reform could wait or be shelved.

ThomasNashe

Worth also adding that the one tangible success of the decapitation strategy was Westmoreland, which has given us Tim Farron MP.

kle4

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, Downing Street sounds as if it needs a peace wall:

https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/840849309356691456

I guess we're back to the days of the chancellor and pm not getting along.

RobD

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, Downing Street sounds as if it needs a peace wall:

twitter.com/rcolvile/status/840849309356691456

Blame game.

What were the education announcements made before the budget? I think I missed those.

Yorkcity

Jonathan said:

The Corbyn Labour story is boring. There is no new information and there hasn't been for months (with the exception of Copeland - which wasn't a massive surprise)

Looking more broadly, the polls suggest a wider range of stories. The fact the Lib Dems are stuck despite Labour's woes deserves some examination.

It does my own personal thoughts were that Labour supporters were now starting to vote Lib Dem tactically again . After in their eyes the betrayal of the coalition with the conservatives in government.Maybe I am wrong as the polls suggest .

Morris_Dancer

Mr. F, were there two battles of Mantinea? The one I recall was when Epaminondas led the Thebans to victory over Sparta.

CarlottaVance

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, Downing Street sounds as if it needs a peace wall:

https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/840849309356691456

I guess we're back to the days of the chancellor and pm not getting along.

Very Bourbonesque!

Dura_Ace

Is Spreadsheet Phil on maneuvers? He does have the scheming and lugubrious countenance of a Medici.

kle4

MarqueeMark said:

Monksfield said:

MarqueeMark said:

Monksfield said:

tlg86 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, I didn't say the Lib Dems would make gains everywhere. And you're right Stoke was disappointing. However, in red-yellow seats, the Lib Dems should be rubbing their hands together and looking for substantial progress.

And how many red-yellow seats are there? Is it in double figures?

The Liblab battlefield is an irrelevance. As ever, the Libdems need to target winnable Tory seats where they remain the main alternative.

The LibDems alternative is as Sensible Labour - a solid, dependable centre-left Party that can impose it's will on Tory coalition partners until it is able to kill off Labour and one day get majority Govt. on its own.

Or they can continue to fanny about, trying to be all things to all voters.

Your last sentence neatly sums up the area of risk the Tories are currently operating in. With May killing any emerging policy of which the tabloids don't approve.

It may paper over the cracks for a while but as soon as real decisions need to be made... But hey, it's not like there are any massive issues to deal with at the moment.

I think that the LibDems have the potential to win in far more seats than Labour do. I can see the LibDems being a replacement for Labour. But they don't have the right leader, and they don't seem to have the ambition.

I think it's a bit more complicated. A lot of their support pre 2010 turned out to be what I would call red liberals, basically unhappy labour voters with limited staying power, as shown by how many immediately dropped support without even waiting to see if the deal struck might be worth it. These types might be back and may want to replace labour, it's a stated ambition for some, but I think that they see themselves as on the same side as labour rather than in the middle, hinders them from truly attacking them, because they do want to replace them but only because they want to attack the Tories better. So they fear Tories coming through the middle to win if they hurt labour too much.

They simultaneously want to eclipse labour and be labour. Scoff af a progressive alliance but automatically repulsed by the idea of airing the Tories unintentionally, as would happen if they do their own thing, at least in the short term.

kle4

Charles said:

While the membership wants him in place, Corbyn's not really a bedblocker is he? He's just serving at their pleasure.

Presumably as a leader it's his job to sometimes tell his supporters he is not the answer.

Rexel56

An effective opposition would be shaming the government on what is happening in education. Insiders tell me that the Department for Education is effectively being run by Nick Timothy on his crusade to resurrect grammar schools in the image if his own childhood, bugger the majority of kids who will suffer as a result. Mainstream schools are facing cuts whilst money is hosed at free school start-ups and held back pending a vote to reintroduce grammars. LEAs have been given the nod that the Academisation agenda is to be reined in - guess we can't have uppity comprehensive schools outperforming the grammars like they do here in North Yorkshire. Where is the Shadow Education Secretary, whomever that is this week?

eek

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, Downing Street sounds as if it needs a peace wall:

twitter.com/rcolvile/status/840849309356691456

Blame game.

What were the education announcements made before the budget? I think I missed those.

More Grammar Schools or it could be the bit about having to tamper with admission criteria to stop Grammar school entry being gamed by those who would otherwise be paying for a private education...

Either way I can't think of a political story that was good for the Government this week.

kle4

In all seriousness the labour brand is too strong to die, that's why no one of significance has jumped ship, but I do think we are for once genuinely at the no credible opposition stage. I really try to listen to as many sides as possible, I do, and I will say that I'm not especially impressed by May and corbyn, like anyone, can come up with a good idea sometimes. But while I was relaxed about ed m being pm, I would without hesitation vote Tory over labour right now if it came down to it. It undermines any good points the opposition makes because well done them, but I could not imagine, at present, supporting even a labour led coalition under corbyn.

dr_spyn

eek said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, Downing Street sounds as if it needs a peace wall:

twitter.com/rcolvile/status/840849309356691456

Blame game.

What were the education announcements made before the budget? I think I missed those.

More Grammar Schools or it could be the bit about having to tamper with admission criteria to stop Grammar school entry being gamed by those who would otherwise be paying for a private education...

Either way I can't think of a political story that was good for the Government this week.

Corbyn backing 2nd Scottish referendum?

Ishmael_Z

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, were there two battles of Mantinea? The one I recall was when Epaminondas led the Thebans to victory over Sparta.

418 and 362.

On duplicate sea battles: Naupactus, Actium and Lepanto were geographically all within a trebuchet-throw of one another.

frpenkridge

"Angela Merkel was poised to close the German border to hundreds of thousands of migrants and refugees at the height of the migrant crisis in September 2015 — but pulled back at the last moment because she feared the resulting clashes with police would look bad on television." Sunday Times

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Z, ah, cheers.

Edited extra bit: Mr. Penkridge, has shades of the slow police response to the London looting in 2011.

ThomasNashe

Rexel56 said:

An effective opposition would be shaming the government on what is happening in education. Insiders tell me that the Department for Education is effectively being run by Nick Timothy on his crusade to resurrect grammar schools in the image if his own childhood, bugger the majority of kids who will suffer as a result. Mainstream schools are facing cuts whilst money is hosed at free school start-ups and held back pending a vote to reintroduce grammars. LEAs have been given the nod that the Academisation agenda is to be reined in - guess we can't have uppity comprehensive schools outperforming the grammars like they do here in North Yorkshire. Where is the Shadow Education Secretary, whomever that is this week?

Working on her bid to take over the leadership when Corbyn goes.

kle4

Presumably May and Hammond and their MPs will lie Through their teeth like with Blair and brown and tell us they get on just great.