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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum UKIP is now

They are routinely derided by others.  The press loves to print stories of their wackier examples.  They are marginalised.  Their public figures are held up to ridicule.  Yet they make up roughly one in ten of the adult population.  I write, of course, of UKIP supporters.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Mouldy old kippers...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Second!

    It is interesting that both UKIP and the Lib Dems haven't really moved much in the polls.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Am I going mad, or did the picture in the header change?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    RobD said:

    Am I going mad, or did the picture in the header change?

    I also witnessed Farage become Nuttall.

    You can cancel the appointment with the psychiatrist. :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Am I going mad, or did the picture in the header change?

    I also witnessed Farage become Nuttall.

    You can cancel the appointment with the psychiatrist. :)
    Nuttall is a Time Lord as well? Interesting.... :D
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2017
    RobD said:

    Second!

    It is interesting that both UKIP and the Lib Dems haven't really moved much in the polls.

    For all the hype, the Lib Dems really haven't made much progress in the polls at all. They've barely crawled up a few points since the EU referendum, and, worse, any progress they've made seems to have completely stalled since the New Year (after they got a bit of a lift following Richmond Park). They're only a bit ahead of where they were at this point in the disastrous 2010-15 parliament.

    Of course, the picture of the polls is completely contradicted by the local council byelections week after week, so goodness knows what's really going on with them.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited March 2017
    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Second!

    It is interesting that both UKIP and the Lib Dems haven't really moved much in the polls.

    For all the hype, the Lib Dems really haven't made much progress in the polls at all. They've barely crawled up a few points since the EU referendum, and, worse, any progress they've made seems to have completely stalled since the New Year (after they got a bit of a lift following Richmond Park). They're only a bit ahead of where they were at this point in the disastrous 2010-15 parliament.

    Of course, the picture of the polls is completely contradicted by the local council byelections week after week, so goodness knows what's really going on with them.
    Seems clear to me that people sensibly see LibDems as a viable force for local government, but not for national government. No contradiction there, then, between local election results and national voting intention polls.

    I just feel sorry for the likes of Mark Senior who seem to believe that gains at the local level mean something at the national level. (yes, I can see that they might in the longer term, through building up an infrastructure, but not for 2020)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Ahead of Mrs McTurnip's likely announcement today of SINDYREF2 because of BREXIT, the SNP government's own White Paper on independence pointed out Scotland being removed from the EU against its wishes three times was a reason to vote for independence - and still they were turned down:

    Second, the Scotland’s Future White Paper. In November 2013, the previous First Minister and the present First Minister launched the Scotland’s Future White Paper, which was described as a ‘guide to an independent Scotland’. In that White Paper, the Scottish Government referred to the referendum as a ‘once in a generation opportunity’ (pages i and 556). Crucially, it also explicitly raised the prospect of a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU resulting in a vote to leave despite a majority of voters in Scotland voting to remain (pages 60, 217 and 460). In other words, although it explicitly highlighted the possibility of a majority of people in the UK as a whole voting to leave the EU while a majority of people in Scotland voted to remain, it still referred to the referendum as a ‘once in a generation’ opportunity, without any caveat or conditions with regard to future events.

    https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/scotlandinunion/pages/559/attachments/original/1488541426/SIU_Letter_Feb_2017v4a.pdf?1488541426
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Second!

    It is interesting that both UKIP and the Lib Dems haven't really moved much in the polls.

    For all the hype, the Lib Dems really haven't made much progress in the polls at all. They've barely crawled up a few points since the EU referendum, and, worse, any progress they've made seems to have completely stalled since the New Year (after they got a bit of a lift following Richmond Park). They're only a bit ahead of where they were at this point in the disastrous 2010-15 parliament.

    Of course, the picture of the polls is completely contradicted by the local council by-elections week after week, so goodness knows what's really going on with them.
    The LibDems clearly have a good operation at phone-banking (did someone say Bradford based?) which can be used to great effect in one or two local by-elections at once - but not much more. Even when they are getting double-digit swings one night, they are barely shifting in others held at the same time.

    The May local elections will give a better view of their position locally. Nationally, they have a Leader who after months either hasn't cut through - or has and people just don't like him. They also have no distinctive policies other than to Remain in the EU. And that USP will have to become for us to Rejoin, once Article 50 is triggered. Rejoin will be a very niche position with the voters.
  • SwiggsSwiggs Posts: 1
    You could look at another way though that despite the rise of populism and nationalism around the western world and with no obvious competitors UKIP is still mired in the low teens
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Welcome to PB, Swiggs!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Roger said:

    For the first time ever I was phoned by Ipsos Mori. It's quite empowering. 'Who will you vote for? - 'Lib Dem' ....

    That feels better.

    May I warmly welcome @Roger upon his eligibility for Auchentennach Fine Pies .... :naughty:
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,723
    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Second!

    It is interesting that both UKIP and the Lib Dems haven't really moved much in the polls.

    For all the hype, the Lib Dems really haven't made much progress in the polls at all. They've barely crawled up a few points since the EU referendum, and, worse, any progress they've made seems to have completely stalled since the New Year (after they got a bit of a lift following Richmond Park). They're only a bit ahead of where they were at this point in the disastrous 2010-15 parliament.

    Of course, the picture of the polls is completely contradicted by the local council byelections week after week, so goodness knows what's really going on with them.
    For all the hype? As far as I can see the LibDems have received very little.They get very little Press coverage and their Leader is regularly rubbished, both here and in the right-wing Press.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    Am I going mad, or did the picture in the header change?

    Both .. :smile:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    RobD said:

    Am I going mad, or did the picture in the header change?

    I also witnessed Farage become Nuttall.

    You can cancel the appointment with the psychiatrist. :)
    I have Nuttall on the main site and Farage lurking behind the scenes on vanillaforums...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    JackW said:

    Roger said:

    For the first time ever I was phoned by Ipsos Mori. It's quite empowering. 'Who will you vote for? - 'Lib Dem' ....

    That feels better.

    May I warmly welcome @Roger upon his eligibility for Auchentennach Fine Pies .... :naughty:
    Could Roger's defection be the straw that breaks Corbyn's back? After all, if he has lost the Champagne Socialists, who is left?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Am I going mad, or did the picture in the header change?

    I also witnessed Farage become Nuttall.

    You can cancel the appointment with the psychiatrist. :)
    I have Nuttall on the main site and Farage lurking behind the scenes on vanillaforums...
    Sounds about right for UKIP.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Roger said:

    For the first time ever I was phoned by Ipsos Mori. It's quite empowering. 'Who will you vote for? - 'Lib Dem' ....

    That feels better.

    May I warmly welcome @Roger upon his eligibility for Auchentennach Fine Pies .... :naughty:
    Could Roger's defection be the straw that breaks Corbyn's back? After all, if he has lost the Champagne Socialists, who is left?
    Jezza will always have Diane Abbott ....

    And those halcyon days ....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Swiggs said:

    You could look at another way though that despite the rise of populism and nationalism around the western world and with no obvious competitors UKIP is still mired in the low teens

    Welcome to PB. UKIP's main opponents now are the Conservatives, who actually have the power to implement the result of the referendum. Nuttall' job (apart from sorting out the infighting) is to keep Mrs May and her government honest.

    As long as we do actually leave the EU I'd imagine UKIP's support will drop off to that of a small protest vote by 2020, their job having being done - but if the government screws up the process there's a good chance of UKIP's vote share rising.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    RobD said:

    Am I going mad, or did the picture in the header change?

    The main site has a soft-focus Nuttall laughing, whereas the Vanilla page has Farage on a UKIP poster.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,192
    The residual UKIP vote is essentially anti. Anti everything.

    It's role is now essentially corrosive.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    I have been saying for a while that UKIP are a potentially game changing resource for the Tories at the next election. I think they are already a significant part of the boost that the Tories have got into the low 40s.

    Cameron attracted what Maggie might have called wets, socially liberal supporters who were ok with fairly high levels of taxation to maintain key public services, notably the NHS. People like me in fact. May seems to me to be trying a lot less hard to keep these voters and this gives the Lib Dems some hope of recovering from the devastation that Cameron visited upon them in 2015 but the quid pro quo is that if she can deliver an acceptable version of Brexit there is still another 10% sitting to her right. That is a game changer.

    As Alastair has pointed out that 10% has proven surprisingly loyal but what if UKIP cease to exist as a national party standing in pretty much every constituency at the next election? That strikes me as possible, bordering on likely. Some of their supporters, probably half, will become DNVs as there will be no party left they find acceptable. But another 5% on the Tory vote puts them in an incredibly strong position. What is looking (at the moment) as a fairly strong swing against Labour could become a tidal wave.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,723
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Am I going mad, or did the picture in the header change?

    I also witnessed Farage become Nuttall.

    You can cancel the appointment with the psychiatrist. :)
    I have Nuttall on the main site and Farage lurking behind the scenes on vanillaforums...
    NOT a good start to one’s week!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    UKIP is a party in decline, their national poll share is regularly at odds with their performance at local level and their leadership troubles have still not abated. However, signing them off just yet on the death certificate is a little premature imho, while they have parliamentary representation at MP and MEP level, short money and donations to keep them afloat and the UK remains within the EU.

    This picture is set to look very different come GE2020 as most, if not all the above has gone.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    Morning all.

    UKIP is a party in decline, their national poll share is regularly at odds with their performance at local level and their leadership troubles have still not abated. However, signing them off just yet on the death certificate is a little premature imho, while they have parliamentary representation at MP and MEP level, short money and donations to keep them afloat and the UK remains within the EU.

    This picture is set to look very different come GE2020 as most, if not all the above has gone.

    That is how I see it as well. The loss of the European money (ironically enough) looks set to make them entirely dependent on Mr Banks. He does not strike me as a reliable sort.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Good piece.....The other factor is the power of the UKIP grey vote - highly likely to vote, read daily newspapers and hate JC - all of which makes them a powerful resource for the UK right. Not sure if Cameron/Osborne/Clegg drove them to UKIP or Nigel wooed them but this was perhaps a seismic shift that is yet to play out to end game.
    I've not seen any effective organised UKIP campaigns post BREXIT (Stoke being their best performance and it hardly brought the house down) so without membership and money they are a conundrum for the future all depends on whether they can ever survive without Nigel F
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Am I going mad, or did the picture in the header change?

    I also witnessed Farage become Nuttall.

    You can cancel the appointment with the psychiatrist. :)
    I have Nuttall on the main site and Farage lurking behind the scenes on vanillaforums...
    NOT a good start to one’s week!
    One's bad enough.....but two's 'cruel & unusual punishment'......does this mean SindyRef threads will be double pics with Sturgeon & Salmond?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @politicshome: Lab ex-chancellor Alistair Darling says SNP will prob fight #indyref2 "fact free" after seeing Trump & Brexit campaigns prevail. #r4today
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @politicshome: Lab ex-chancellor Alistair Darling says SNP will prob fight #indyref2 "fact free" after seeing Trump & Brexit campaigns prevail. #r4today

    No change from #indyref1 then…! - How did that work out?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Out of interest, can we point to a policy in Scotland that proves the SNP are genuinely successful / deliver on domestic issues? I'm not sure if those baby boxes have had any impact yet.

    Reason I ask is thats its probably a good indicator as to how successful an independent Scotland would be.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Out of interest, can we point to a policy in Scotland that proves the SNP are genuinely successful / deliver on domestic issues? I'm not sure if those baby boxes have had any impact yet.

    Reason I ask is thats its probably a good indicator as to how successful an independent Scotland would be.

    If you want "a good indicator as to how successful an independent Scotland would be" you need to subtract £9bn from any current "success"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @fatshez: There will now be an indyref2 and the question will be "who gets a better deal out of Brexit: Ireland or Scotland?"
  • What happens to Crick and Indeyref2 if Theresa has a General Election this October ?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited March 2017
    "What happened next is chilling. It will freeze the blood within your very body. Amid threats in YouTube comment threads, such as 'effing, swear word, someone give me her address I will kill her' and 'stupid, swear word, needs to be killed', the young girl was dragged onto a page by a pair of religious fundamentalists, who at first posted a picture in disgust at her dancing, and in a recorded audio, was forced into an online repentance.

    "A public, tearful, apology, repentance and retraction, merely for dancing. Welcome to the United Kingdom in 2017. We may have just witnessed our first online religious fundamentalist inquisition...

    Not a single global, nor national, feminist movement adopted this as a cause. Not a single mainstream, left wing nor liberal, media outlet reported on this.

    "And I am wondering whether feminists are too busy picking first world fights while neglecting the minorities within minority communities.

    http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/maajid-nawaz/feminists-too-busy-picking-first-world-fights/?utm_source=Direct
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Scott_P said:

    Out of interest, can we point to a policy in Scotland that proves the SNP are genuinely successful / deliver on domestic issues? I'm not sure if those baby boxes have had any impact yet.

    Reason I ask is thats its probably a good indicator as to how successful an independent Scotland would be.

    If you want "a good indicator as to how successful an independent Scotland would be" you need to subtract £9bn from any current "success"
    I agree with their desire to be independent. They've always seemed like a distinct country to me. But until they can emulate Denmark or Sweden in their ability to pay their own way and afford a decent/excellent welfare state, they'd probably better hang onto nurse a bit longer ...

    Another small northern country, Ireland, only 'pays its way' by being a tax haven.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    It is a bit surprising UKIP hasn't declined more. But, Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet and we won't leave the EU for years. So, maybe those events will see the purples wither away (or maybe a new Farage-Banks vehicle will draw away their support).

    Miss Plato, that sounds rancid and backward. Lack of media coverage is disturbing.

    Speaking of which, I was intrigued by the news report of the Dutch situation. Not riots, but demonstrations. No videos of chanting crowds or their violence, but some of the Dutch police restoring order.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited March 2017
    Swiggs said:

    You could look at another way though that despite the rise of populism and nationalism around the western world and with no obvious competitors UKIP is still mired in the low teens

    Welcome.

    There will always be a need for a NOTA party hoovering up 10-15% of the vote.

    UKIP as a single issue pressure group was spectacularly successful but has now settled back into safe NOTA political party territory.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    If anyone thinks IndyRef2 will be called today the are cukoo.

    All that will be done is Sturgeon will, for the 100th time, lay out what conditions May needs to meet for Sturgeon not to call IndyRef2.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Awkward.....School in Education Minister's constituency pleads for parental volunteers to teach maths.....all Westminster's fault, no doubt....

    EXCLUSIVE: Plea for parents to teach maths amid staff shortage at John Swinney’s local school

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/385408/exclusive-plea-for-parents-to-teach-maths-amid-staff-shortage-at-john-swinneys-local-school/
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    TOPPING said:

    Swiggs said:

    You could look at another way though that despite the rise of populism and nationalism around the western world and with no obvious competitors UKIP is still mired in the low teens

    Welcome.

    There will always be a need for a NOTA party hoovering up 10-15% of the vote.

    UKIP as a single issue pressure group was spectacularly successful but has now settled back into safe NOTA political party territory.

    But if UKIP does collapse, who will replace them as NOTA? The Lib Dems are tainted by their recent time in government and their devotion to the EU doesn't sit comfortably with trying to be NOTA. The MRLP, maybe? ;)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,753
    Alistair said:

    If anyone thinks IndyRef2 will be called today the are cukoo.

    All that will be done is Sturgeon will, for the 100th time, lay out what conditions May needs to meet for Sturgeon not to call IndyRef2.

    Entertaining though to see the usual suspects in a muck sweat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited March 2017
    Alistair said:

    If anyone thinks IndyRef2 will be called today the are cukoo.

    All that will be done is Sturgeon will, for the 100th time, lay out what conditions May needs to meet for Sturgeon not to call IndyRef2.

    Well until Sturgeon actually calls the referendum, Mrs May will just keep ignoring her.

    It's almost as if, for all the bluster, the SNP don't actually want to let the Scottish people decide their future governance.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Alistair said:

    If anyone thinks IndyRef2 will be called today the are cukoo.

    All that will be done is Sturgeon will, for the 100th time, lay out what conditions May needs to meet for Sturgeon not to call IndyRef2.

    Which of course will be impossible to meet......and of course Sturgeon can't 'call Indyref2', however much she might like to pretend she can.....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Essexit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Swiggs said:

    You could look at another way though that despite the rise of populism and nationalism around the western world and with no obvious competitors UKIP is still mired in the low teens

    Welcome.

    There will always be a need for a NOTA party hoovering up 10-15% of the vote.

    UKIP as a single issue pressure group was spectacularly successful but has now settled back into safe NOTA political party territory.

    But if UKIP does collapse, who will replace them as NOTA? The Lib Dems are tainted by their recent time in government and their devotion to the EU doesn't sit comfortably with trying to be NOTA. The MRLP, maybe? ;)
    I think NOTA parties have some degree of leeway to have out there policies (remember the LD'S hypothecated taxes?) so I think there will be tolerance for both parties?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/841193369799950336

    Maths teachers in Perthshire?

    No, that would be the day job......
  • Why is UKIP scoring so well in opinion polls? Because the question is: who would you vote for if there were a GE tomorrow? Many would reply UKIP, if for no other reason other than to keep the govt 'honest' about a clean Brexit.

    Not a useful pointer for UKIP performance if the next GE is 2020.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,192
    A bit of nostalgia on Breakfast with Keir Starmer actually looking and sounding like a leader. Shame he was silenced by 'technical difficulties'.

    It's a mystery to me why centrist Tories would be willing to put their faith entirely in the foam at the mouth brigade to negotiate a deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Good article. Although May has stolen UKIP clothes over Brexit and grammars UKIP did manage to distinguish themselves over the Budget by opposing Hammond's rise in National Insurance Charges. It is also more likely than not that May proposes a job offer requirement and limited EU budget contributions during the negotiations with the EU rather than the points system and no more EU budget contributions the Leave campaign promised and UKIP can continue to press for the latter
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    It's interesting that three-fifths have resisted all the scaremongering and aren't even considering leaving.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Alistair said:

    If anyone thinks IndyRef2 will be called today the are cukoo.

    All that will be done is Sturgeon will, for the 100th time, lay out what conditions May needs to meet for Sturgeon not to call IndyRef2.

    Which of course will be impossible to meet......and of course Sturgeon can't 'call Indyref2', however much she might like to pretend she can.....
    Sturgeon has exactly the same condition for requesting a referendum as Blair did on the euro.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    It's interesting that three-fifths have resisted all the scaremongering and aren't even considering leaving.
    And for any that do decide to leave, there will be hundreds of qualified medical professionals from the rest of the world who'd welcome the opportunity to work in the UK.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265

    The residual UKIP vote is essentially anti. Anti everything.

    It's role is now essentially corrosive.

    Yes, though I'd put it a bit less pejoratively - they're now a classic protest party. Protest parties are largely immune to leadership problems, wacky representatives, shaky programmes, etc. It can even be helpful - I once met a voter who said he wished Hitler was standing in his local election, because "If we voted for him that'd REALLY shake the Westminster bastards up." I'm not suggesting that UKIP voters fancy Hitler (even that guy didn't really, he just wanted a good fat protest), merely that they're not too bothered by usual political stuff.

    Where I think Alastair is mistaken is in linking this too closely to Brexit. I don't think the average UKIP voter is following it that closely - they half-expect to be betrayed over immigration even if we have a hard Brexit. But if you want to stick it to the Establishment in a general unfocused way, UKIP is clearly a good option. The Tories are not, which is why the core UKIP vote won't come to them even if the party collapses - they'll just abstain until another protest vehicle comes along.

    Meanwhile, Labour's leftward swing isn't picking up the fed-up vote. That's partly because we're seen as soft on immigration and that is something which fed-up voters do dislike. And partly that Corbyn doesn't do populist rants - the calm lecturer style appeals to people like me, but positively puts off people who just want to stuff the traditional political class. (I suspect that if Labour was led by, say, Galloway or Scargill in their prime it would be making inroads into the fed-up vote, while horrifying people like me.)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    It's interesting that three-fifths have resisted all the scaremongering and aren't even considering leaving.
    I get the impression that C4 were disappointed about the results and are now trying to big up a failed story.

    Fortunately for them there's no shortage of people willing to spread worthless tweets around.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2017
    Fillon confirms his commitment to the Euro https://mobile.twitter.com/DenisMacShane/status/841204480662220800
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The residual UKIP vote is essentially anti. Anti everything.

    It's role is now essentially corrosive.

    Yes, though I'd put it a bit less pejoratively - they're now a classic protest party. Protest parties are largely immune to leadership problems, wacky representatives, shaky programmes, etc. It can even be helpful - I once met a voter who said he wished Hitler was standing in his local election, because "If we voted for him that'd REALLY shake the Westminster bastards up." I'm not suggesting that UKIP voters fancy Hitler (even that guy didn't really, he just wanted a good fat protest), merely that they're not too bothered by usual political stuff.

    Where I think Alastair is mistaken is in linking this too closely to Brexit. I don't think the average UKIP voter is following it that closely - they half-expect to be betrayed over immigration even if we have a hard Brexit. But if you want to stick it to the Establishment in a general unfocused way, UKIP is clearly a good option. The Tories are not, which is why the core UKIP vote won't come to them even if the party collapses - they'll just abstain until another protest vehicle comes along.

    Meanwhile, Labour's leftward swing isn't picking up the fed-up vote. That's partly because we're seen as soft on immigration and that is something which fed-up voters do dislike. And partly that Corbyn doesn't do populist rants - the calm lecturer style appeals to people like me, but positively puts off people who just want to stuff the traditional political class. (I suspect that if Labour was led by, say, Galloway or Scargill in their prime it would be making inroads into the fed-up vote, while horrifying people like me.)
    The non PC expression would be "rabble-rouser"
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    It's interesting that three-fifths have resisted all the scaremongering and aren't even considering leaving.
    And for any that do decide to leave, there will be hundreds of qualified medical professionals from the rest of the world who'd welcome the opportunity to work in the UK.
    They would still be immigrants.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    The residual UKIP vote is essentially anti. Anti everything.

    It's role is now essentially corrosive.

    Yes, though I'd put it a bit less pejoratively - they're now a classic protest party. Protest parties are largely immune to leadership problems, wacky representatives, shaky programmes, etc. It can even be helpful - I once met a voter who said he wished Hitler was standing in his local election, because "If we voted for him that'd REALLY shake the Westminster bastards up." I'm not suggesting that UKIP voters fancy Hitler (even that guy didn't really, he just wanted a good fat protest), merely that they're not too bothered by usual political stuff.

    Where I think Alastair is mistaken is in linking this too closely to Brexit. I don't think the average UKIP voter is following it that closely - they half-expect to be betrayed over immigration even if we have a hard Brexit. But if you want to stick it to the Establishment in a general unfocused way, UKIP is clearly a good option. The Tories are not, which is why the core UKIP vote won't come to them even if the party collapses - they'll just abstain until another protest vehicle comes along.

    Meanwhile, Labour's leftward swing isn't picking up the fed-up vote. That's partly because we're seen as soft on immigration and that is something which fed-up voters do dislike. And partly that Corbyn doesn't do populist rants - the calm lecturer style appeals to people like me, but positively puts off people who just want to stuff the traditional political class. (I suspect that if Labour was led by, say, Galloway or Scargill in their prime it would be making inroads into the fed-up vote, while horrifying people like me.)
    Frankly, I am amazed you are not horrified at what Corbyn's leadership is doing to the Labour Party. You must know he cannot possibly win a GE.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited March 2017

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    It's interesting that three-fifths have resisted all the scaremongering and aren't even considering leaving.
    I get the impression that C4 were disappointed about the results and are now trying to big up a failed story.

    Fortunately for them there's no shortage of people willing to spread worthless tweets around.
    I wonder how much these programs are focussed on the media and the MPs who will be voting today, rather than the public at large. It's really a storm in a teacup, the sort of program that would have been canned if it were on any other subject.

    I really, really hope that once A50 is invoked and the negotiations to leave start, the more excitable remainers in the media will start to calm down a bit and get behind the British negotiations. I very much doubt that's what will happen though, instead they seem determined to show the rest of the EU just how much we're willing to bend over.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    A bit of nostalgia on Breakfast with Keir Starmer actually looking and sounding like a leader. Shame he was silenced by 'technical difficulties'.

    It's a mystery to me why centrist Tories would be willing to put their faith entirely in the foam at the mouth brigade to negotiate a deal.

    He is the next Prime Minister.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    Quite so: what's the baseline? It is certainly not zero, but you wouldn't know it from this tweet. There really should be on the spot jail sentences for disseminating statistical bollocks of this sort.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Awkward.....School in Education Minister's constituency pleads for parental volunteers to teach maths.....all Westminster's fault, no doubt....

    EXCLUSIVE: Plea for parents to teach maths amid staff shortage at John Swinney’s local school

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/385408/exclusive-plea-for-parents-to-teach-maths-amid-staff-shortage-at-john-swinneys-local-school/

    Scotland needs immigrants. Free movement in independent Scotland.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    It's interesting that three-fifths have resisted all the scaremongering and aren't even considering leaving.
    And for any that do decide to leave, there will be hundreds of qualified medical professionals from the rest of the world who'd welcome the opportunity to work in the UK.
    So, we will replace EU-based medical migration with Commonwealth or wider migration. I suspect, to put it mildly, that this is not what the average Leave voter had in mind.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    It's interesting that three-fifths have resisted all the scaremongering and aren't even considering leaving.
    And for any that do decide to leave, there will be hundreds of qualified medical professionals from the rest of the world who'd welcome the opportunity to work in the UK.
    So, we will replace EU-based medical migration with Commonwealth or wider migration. I suspect, to put it mildly, that this is not what the average Leave voter had in mind.
    Restoring the bursary for domestically trained nurses would help
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    edited March 2017
    Similar nebulous anti-Establishment feeling in Netherlands, though going both right and left there:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/13/dutch-voters-netherlands-election-wilders
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Scott_P said:

    Out of interest, can we point to a policy in Scotland that proves the SNP are genuinely successful / deliver on domestic issues? I'm not sure if those baby boxes have had any impact yet.

    Reason I ask is thats its probably a good indicator as to how successful an independent Scotland would be.

    If you want "a good indicator as to how successful an independent Scotland would be" you need to subtract £9bn from any current "success"
    I agree with their desire to be independent. They've always seemed like a distinct country to me. But until they can emulate Denmark or Sweden in their ability to pay their own way and afford a decent/excellent welfare state, they'd probably better hang onto nurse a bit longer ...

    Another small northern country, Ireland, only 'pays its way' by being a tax haven.
    So why can't Scotland ? It has a bigger population to start with. Great educational resources. More than adequate financial resources.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    surbiton said:

    A bit of nostalgia on Breakfast with Keir Starmer actually looking and sounding like a leader. Shame he was silenced by 'technical difficulties'.

    It's a mystery to me why centrist Tories would be willing to put their faith entirely in the foam at the mouth brigade to negotiate a deal.

    He is the next Prime Minister.
    He looks like a poor man's Neil Kinnock to me, Umunna is a better bet for next Labour PM if there is one but not until the election after next, Hammond is a better bet for next PM even despite the Budget row
  • "disseminating statistical bollocks "

    Great turn of phrase, might have to steal that one!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    surbiton said:

    Awkward.....School in Education Minister's constituency pleads for parental volunteers to teach maths.....all Westminster's fault, no doubt....

    EXCLUSIVE: Plea for parents to teach maths amid staff shortage at John Swinney’s local school

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/385408/exclusive-plea-for-parents-to-teach-maths-amid-staff-shortage-at-john-swinneys-local-school/

    Scotland needs immigrants. Free movement in independent Scotland.
    Davis has proposed potentially some free movement continuing to a Scotland still in the UK
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Awkward.....School in Education Minister's constituency pleads for parental volunteers to teach maths.....all Westminster's fault, no doubt....

    EXCLUSIVE: Plea for parents to teach maths amid staff shortage at John Swinney’s local school

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/385408/exclusive-plea-for-parents-to-teach-maths-amid-staff-shortage-at-john-swinneys-local-school/

    Scotland needs immigrants. Free movement in independent Scotland.
    Davis has proposed potentially some free movement continuing to a Scotland still in the UK
    More to the point, do immigrants want scotland?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Awkward.....School in Education Minister's constituency pleads for parental volunteers to teach maths.....all Westminster's fault, no doubt....

    EXCLUSIVE: Plea for parents to teach maths amid staff shortage at John Swinney’s local school

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/385408/exclusive-plea-for-parents-to-teach-maths-amid-staff-shortage-at-john-swinneys-local-school/

    Scotland needs immigrants. Free movement in independent Scotland.
    Davis has proposed potentially some free movement continuing to a Scotland still in the UK
    More to the point, do immigrants want scotland?
    Do all Scots want more immigrants?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    On thread: Potentially interesting question, but I stopped reading after 'hardline version of a Conservative government' as it was clearly turning into one of Alastair's sulks about how the common people are just awful. How is this a 'hardline' government? On all measures I can see it's pretty centrist.
  • surbiton said:

    Awkward.....School in Education Minister's constituency pleads for parental volunteers to teach maths.....all Westminster's fault, no doubt....

    EXCLUSIVE: Plea for parents to teach maths amid staff shortage at John Swinney’s local school

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/385408/exclusive-plea-for-parents-to-teach-maths-amid-staff-shortage-at-john-swinneys-local-school/

    Scotland needs immigrants. Free movement in independent Scotland.
    Of course they do and their need can be accommodated in a flexible work visa system.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Awkward.....School in Education Minister's constituency pleads for parental volunteers to teach maths.....all Westminster's fault, no doubt....

    EXCLUSIVE: Plea for parents to teach maths amid staff shortage at John Swinney’s local school

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/385408/exclusive-plea-for-parents-to-teach-maths-amid-staff-shortage-at-john-swinneys-local-school/

    Scotland needs immigrants. Free movement in independent Scotland.
    Davis has proposed potentially some free movement continuing to a Scotland still in the UK
    Hold on. I thought Scotland was told they could not have access to the single market because we are "one United Kingdom". How come on freedom of movement, there can be two United Kingdoms ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited March 2017

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    It's interesting that three-fifths have resisted all the scaremongering and aren't even considering leaving.
    And for any that do decide to leave, there will be hundreds of qualified medical professionals from the rest of the world who'd welcome the opportunity to work in the UK.
    So, we will replace EU-based medical migration with Commonwealth or wider migration. I suspect, to put it mildly, that this is not what the average Leave voter had in mind.
    I'm not sure the average Leave voter cares too much about immigration of doctors and nurses.

    The problems they have are with Romanian Big Issue sellers on benefits, of so many Polish plumbers that British plumbers can't earn a living, and of arranged marriages from Pakistan with people who don't speak English and prefer to turn certain parts of England into a mini-Lahore.

    In other words, they want control over who is allowed into their country, they want the immigration of productive people that benefits the UK and don't want immigration of those who will be a drain on society or who want to change it rather than integrate.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    It's interesting that three-fifths have resisted all the scaremongering and aren't even considering leaving.
    And for any that do decide to leave, there will be hundreds of qualified medical professionals from the rest of the world who'd welcome the opportunity to work in the UK.
    So, we will replace EU-based medical migration with Commonwealth or wider migration. I suspect, to put it mildly, that this is not what the average Leave voter had in mind.
    I'm not sure the average Leave voter cares too much about immigration of doctors and nurses.

    The problems they have are with Romanian Big Issue sellers on benefits, of so many Polish plumbers that British plumbers can't earn a living, and of arranged marriages from Pakistan with people who don't speak English and prefer to turn certain parts of England into a mini-Lahore.

    In other words, they want control over who is allowed into their country, they want the immigration of productive people that benefits the UK and don't want immigration of those who will be a drain on society or who want to change it rather than integrate.
    If leave voters think Pakistan is part of the EU then they are certainly living up to stereotype.
  • surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Awkward.....School in Education Minister's constituency pleads for parental volunteers to teach maths.....all Westminster's fault, no doubt....

    EXCLUSIVE: Plea for parents to teach maths amid staff shortage at John Swinney’s local school

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/385408/exclusive-plea-for-parents-to-teach-maths-amid-staff-shortage-at-john-swinneys-local-school/

    Scotland needs immigrants. Free movement in independent Scotland.
    Davis has proposed potentially some free movement continuing to a Scotland still in the UK
    Hold on. I thought Scotland was told they could not have access to the single market because we are "one United Kingdom". How come on freedom of movement, there can be two United Kingdoms ?
    As I just said, a work visa system that will reflect Scotland's needs. Indeed I expect this flexibility to apply throughout the UK
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited March 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    Quite so: what's the baseline? It is certainly not zero, but you wouldn't know it from this tweet. There really should be on the spot jail sentences for disseminating statistical bollocks of this sort.
    Good morning all.

    Assuming a 6% churn, which is not unreasonable, we'd expect c84k people to leave the NHS every year.

    I've thought about leaving every role I've ever been in. It's part of the human condition, surely?

    I'd post the graph showing how EU nursing staff replaced Filipinos during the naughties, but we're well past the stage of valuing data when it comes to either the NHS or Brexit.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Dr P,

    Ukip are a party of cynicism; they expect to be betrayed. Only when Brexit is totally sealed will they begin to fade away,

    It doesn't help when they see and hear people openly resenting a democratic result. The suspicion arises that these people consider themselves above democracy. Unfortunately, they do.

    On another issue, the retiring judge's statements about women being careful if they intend to become legless is interesting for the reaction it caused. While emphasising the fault is always with the wrong-doer, she merely advised caution if you intend to make yourself vulnerable.

    The same caution the police advise when leaving your house unlocked, or Governments advise when visiting dangerous areas abroad.

    You're all seen notices telling you to be careful when pickpockets are active. If you go there with a unzipped purse dangling from a pocket, get robbed, and then complain bitterly about the notices - that's not the reaction of a sane person.

    What's odd is the judge feels the necessity to make the comments. Yet on the media, I saw only condemnation for the supposed insult. I may be living in a non-metropolitan bubble, but most acquaintances of mine (of both sexes) think that, on this, the offense bus-riders are embarrassing themselves.

    Are we really two populations now. One writes on twitter, one votes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. CD13, I largely agree (although I do have a Twitter account).

    Good morning, Mr. M.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Similar nebulous anti-Establishment feeling in Netherlands, though going both right and left there:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/13/dutch-voters-netherlands-election-wilders

    Unless the recent fracas makes some dramatic changes, are the PVV likely to get any more seats than in 2010 ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    It's interesting that three-fifths have resisted all the scaremongering and aren't even considering leaving.
    And for any that do decide to leave, there will be hundreds of qualified medical professionals from the rest of the world who'd welcome the opportunity to work in the UK.
    So, we will replace EU-based medical migration with Commonwealth or wider migration. I suspect, to put it mildly, that this is not what the average Leave voter had in mind.
    I'm not sure the average Leave voter cares too much about immigration of doctors and nurses.

    The problems they have are with Romanian Big Issue sellers on benefits, of so many Polish plumbers that British plumbers can't earn a living, and of arranged marriages from Pakistan with people who don't speak English and prefer to turn certain parts of England into a mini-Lahore.

    In other words, they want control over who is allowed into their country, they want the immigration of productive people that benefits the UK and don't want immigration of those who will be a drain on society or who want to change it rather than integrate.
    If leave voters think Pakistan is part of the EU then they are certainly living up to stereotype.
    The problem they have is with the "Right to family life" rules under the Social Chapter, that means we can't deport foreign criminals and ban arranged marriages from certain countries. Out of the EU we are free to make our own rules on these things.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    surbiton said:

    The residual UKIP vote is essentially anti. Anti everything.

    It's role is now essentially corrosive.

    Yes, though I'd put it a bit less pejoratively - they're now a classic protest party. Protest parties are largely immune to leadership problems, wacky representatives, shaky programmes, etc. It can even be helpful - I once met a voter who said he wished Hitler was standing in his local election, because "If we voted for him that'd REALLY shake the Westminster bastards up." I'm not suggesting that UKIP voters fancy Hitler (even that guy didn't really, he just wanted a good fat protest), merely that they're not too bothered by usual political stuff.

    Where I think Alastair is mistaken is in linking this too closely to Brexit. I don't think the average UKIP voter is following it that closely - they half-expect to be betrayed over immigration even if we have a hard Brexit. But if you want to stick it to the Establishment in a general unfocused way, UKIP is clearly a good option. The Tories are not, which is why the core UKIP vote won't come to them even if the party collapses - they'll just abstain until another protest vehicle comes along.

    Meanwhile, Labour's leftward swing isn't picking up the fed-up vote. That's partly because we're seen as soft on immigration and that is something which fed-up voters do dislike. And partly that Corbyn doesn't do populist rants - the calm lecturer style appeals to people like me, but positively puts off people who just want to stuff the traditional political class. (I suspect that if Labour was led by, say, Galloway or Scargill in their prime it would be making inroads into the fed-up vote, while horrifying people like me.)
    The non PC expression would be "rabble-rouser"
    Good communicator?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Well balanced commentary from Alastair not least considering his overall antipathy towards UKIP.

    It is worth noting that UKIP is founded upon a general mistrust of the three established parties and contains many supporters who left the Tories in disgust and anger. Even with Brexit proceeding I think it will take a long time for those feelings of betrayal to dissipate even if events prove them to be unfounded. For a fair few the wrench to leave Tory or Labour was so big that it is not something they will easily reverse.

    Brexit will help of course but I expect UKIP to linger on for a very long time even after the EU issue is resolved.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Sandpit said:



    I really, really hope that once A50 is invoked and the negotiations to leave start, the more excitable remainers in the media will start to calm down a bit and get behind the British negotiations. I very much doubt that's what will happen though, instead they seem determined to show the rest of the EU just how much we're willing to bend over.

    Life and politics don't work that way as you well know.

    Simply repeating "Trust Theresa" ad infinitum and ad nauseam isn't going to cut it if and when it appears not all the expectations that she has been happy to accommodate since last July are going to be fulfilled.

    For months we've had this meme of "all things to all people" from the Prime Minister but A50 will mean choices will have to be made and some people are going to be disappointed and it remains to be seen how well May copes with serious opposition (unlike Corbyn). Not well if her ludicrous over-reaction to Heseltine is any indication.

    The strange thing is, May is an interventionist Conservative who believes in the power of the State to solve problems. To me, she's virtually indistinguishable from Blair and indeed Heseltine in wanting to use the State as a force for change and progress. Yet she's being hailed in some quarters as a "traditional Conservative" yet Hammond, whose Budget she presumably supported, is condemned for "not being Conservative".

    Blair is back - the SDP won - the "social market economy" marches on.



  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Today's Liss poll for the Netherlands:

    VVD-ALDE: 16%
    PVV-ENF: 14%
    D66-ALDE: 12%
    SP-LEFT: 12%
    GL-GREEN: 12%
    CDA-EPP: 11%

    It really is anyone's.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    The residual UKIP vote is essentially anti. Anti everything.

    It's role is now essentially corrosive.

    Yes, though I'd put it a bit less pejoratively - they're now a classic protest party. Protest parties are largely immune to leadership problems, wacky representatives, shaky programmes, etc. It can even be helpful - I once met a voter who said he wished Hitler was standing in his local election, because "If we voted for him that'd REALLY shake the Westminster bastards up." I'm not suggesting that UKIP voters fancy Hitler (even that guy didn't really, he just wanted a good fat protest), merely that they're not too bothered by usual political stuff.

    Where I think Alastair is mistaken is in linking this too closely to Brexit. I don't think the average UKIP voter is following it that closely - they half-expect to be betrayed over immigration even if we have a hard Brexit. But if you want to stick it to the Establishment in a general unfocused way, UKIP is clearly a good option. The Tories are not, which is why the core UKIP vote won't come to them even if the party collapses - they'll just abstain until another protest vehicle comes along.

    Meanwhile, Labour's leftward swing isn't picking up the fed-up vote. That's partly because we're seen as soft on immigration and that is something which fed-up voters do dislike. And partly that Corbyn doesn't do populist rants - the calm lecturer style appeals to people like me, but positively puts off people who just want to stuff the traditional political class. (I suspect that if Labour was led by, say, Galloway or Scargill in their prime it would be making inroads into the fed-up vote, while horrifying people like me.)
    Frankly, I am amazed you are not horrified at what Corbyn's leadership is doing to the Labour Party. You must know he cannot possibly win a GE.

    Corbyn attracts a lot of support from well-off old men who do not need a Labour government or worry too much about a Tory one.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    Today's Liss poll for the Netherlands:

    VVD-ALDE: 16%
    PVV-ENF: 14%
    D66-ALDE: 12%
    SP-LEFT: 12%
    GL-GREEN: 12%
    CDA-EPP: 11%

    It really is anyone's.

    If that turns out to be correct, PVV may end up with fewer seats than in 2010.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Today's Liss poll for the Netherlands:

    VVD-ALDE: 16%
    PVV-ENF: 14%
    D66-ALDE: 12%
    SP-LEFT: 12%
    GL-GREEN: 12%
    CDA-EPP: 11%

    It really is anyone's.

    If that turns out to be correct, PVV may end up with fewer seats than in 2010.
    Greens doing well.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    The residual UKIP vote is essentially anti. Anti everything.

    It's role is now essentially corrosive.

    Yes, though I'd put it a bit less pejoratively - they're now a classic protest party. Protest parties are largely immune to leadership problems, wacky representatives, shaky programmes, etc. It can even be helpful - I once met a voter who said he wished Hitler was standing in his local election, because "If we voted for him that'd REALLY shake the Westminster bastards up." I'm not suggesting that UKIP voters fancy Hitler (even that guy didn't really, he just wanted a good fat protest), merely that they're not too bothered by usual political stuff.

    Where I think Alastair is mistaken is in linking this too closely to Brexit. I don't think the average UKIP voter is following it that closely - they half-expect to be betrayed over immigration even if we have a hard Brexit. But if you want to stick it to the Establishment in a general unfocused way, UKIP is clearly a good option. The Tories are not, which is why the core UKIP vote won't come to them even if the party collapses - they'll just abstain until another protest vehicle comes along.

    Meanwhile, Labour's leftward swing isn't picking up the fed-up vote. That's partly because we're seen as soft on immigration and that is something which fed-up voters do dislike. And partly that Corbyn doesn't do populist rants - the calm lecturer style appeals to people like me, but positively puts off people who just want to stuff the traditional political class. (I suspect that if Labour was led by, say, Galloway or Scargill in their prime it would be making inroads into the fed-up vote, while horrifying people like me.)
    Frankly, I am amazed you are not horrified at what Corbyn's leadership is doing to the Labour Party. You must know he cannot possibly win a GE.

    Corbyn attracts a lot of support from well-off old men who do not need a Labour government or worry too much about a Tory one.

    And, moreover, a Labour Party which provides a social and moral detox for corrupted minds by being ideologically pure. A bit like homeopathy.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Second!

    It is interesting that both UKIP and the Lib Dems haven't really moved much in the polls.

    For all the hype, the Lib Dems really haven't made much progress in the polls at all. They've barely crawled up a few points since the EU referendum, and, worse, any progress they've made seems to have completely stalled since the New Year (after they got a bit of a lift following Richmond Park). They're only a bit ahead of where they were at this point in the disastrous 2010-15 parliament.

    Of course, the picture of the polls is completely contradicted by the local council byelections week after week, so goodness knows what's really going on with them.
    For all the hype? As far as I can see the LibDems have received very little.They get very little Press coverage and their Leader is regularly rubbished, both here and in the right-wing Press.

    Like Labour, the LibDems have a leader problem. Unlike Corbyn, Farron is not hopelessly out of touch, does not hold views that are anathema to 80% of the population and is not utterly useless at leading, but he does not have a persona that commands attention. With millions and millions of voters looking on in bemusement at what is currently happening in and to the UK looking for someone to articulate their frustration, the opportunity is huge. It's tailor-made for someone like Charlie Kennedy or a pre-coalition Clegg, but the LibDems do not have that god dust anymore, it seems.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    So that's 5,000 COULD leave per year.

    The NHS employs about 1.4 million people.

    Foreign citizens employed by the NHS are by definition ALWAYS considering whether to leave.

    So its more FAKE NEWS.
    It's interesting that three-fifths have resisted all the scaremongering and aren't even considering leaving.
    And for any that do decide to leave, there will be hundreds of qualified medical professionals from the rest of the world who'd welcome the opportunity to work in the UK.
    So, we will replace EU-based medical migration with Commonwealth or wider migration. I suspect, to put it mildly, that this is not what the average Leave voter had in mind.
    I'm not sure the average Leave voter cares too much about immigration of doctors and nurses.

    The problems they have are with Romanian Big Issue sellers on benefits, of so many Polish plumbers that British plumbers can't earn a living, and of arranged marriages from Pakistan with people who don't speak English and prefer to turn certain parts of England into a mini-Lahore.

    In other words, they want control over who is allowed into their country, they want the immigration of productive people that benefits the UK and don't want immigration of those who will be a drain on society or who want to change it rather than integrate.
    If leave voters think Pakistan is part of the EU then they are certainly living up to stereotype.
    The Tories could have stopped immigrants from Pakistan through arranged marriages and who don't speak English.

    They had a Home Secretary with the powers to do so. Her name is Theresa May.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    Second!

    It is interesting that both UKIP and the Lib Dems haven't really moved much in the polls.

    For all the hype, the Lib Dems really haven't made much progress in the polls at all. They've barely crawled up a few points since the EU referendum, and, worse, any progress they've made seems to have completely stalled since the New Year (after they got a bit of a lift following Richmond Park). They're only a bit ahead of where they were at this point in the disastrous 2010-15 parliament.

    Of course, the picture of the polls is completely contradicted by the local council byelections week after week, so goodness knows what's really going on with them.
    For all the hype? As far as I can see the LibDems have received very little.They get very little Press coverage and their Leader is regularly rubbished, both here and in the right-wing Press.

    Like Labour, the LibDems have a leader problem. Unlike Corbyn, Farron is not hopelessly out of touch, does not hold views that are anathema to 80% of the population and is not utterly useless at leading, but he does not have a persona that commands attention. With millions and millions of voters looking on in bemusement at what is currently happening in and to the UK looking for someone to articulate their frustration, the opportunity is huge. It's tailor-made for someone like Charlie Kennedy or a pre-coalition Clegg, but the LibDems do not have that god dust anymore, it seems.

    I think you are under estimating what the Liberals can do, if Corbyn stays in situ. 10% could easily become 20% in no time. Mostly, from Labour but a few from the Tories too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    rcs1000 said:

    Today's Liss poll for the Netherlands:

    VVD-ALDE: 16%
    PVV-ENF: 14%
    D66-ALDE: 12%
    SP-LEFT: 12%
    GL-GREEN: 12%
    CDA-EPP: 11%

    It really is anyone's.

    Or no one's under PR system :-)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Today's Liss poll for the Netherlands:

    VVD-ALDE: 16%
    PVV-ENF: 14%
    D66-ALDE: 12%
    SP-LEFT: 12%
    GL-GREEN: 12%
    CDA-EPP: 11%

    It really is anyone's.

    If that turns out to be correct, PVV may end up with fewer seats than in 2010.
    Of course, we all make a big fuss over who comes first, but it's an irrelevancy because the Dutch system doesn't work like that. You need a coalition with 76 seats out of 150 to pass a confidence vote. Said coalition could be made up with none of the top three parties by vote share and no-one would bat an eyelid.
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