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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Dutch election

After the last Ice Age, Britain and the Netherlands were joined by land. The Thames and the Rhine were part of a single river system.  Following an inundation caused by a megatsunami, the two were separated, ironically, under a torrent of water.

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swing_voter

First.....like PVV

CarlottaVance

Second! Like Yes....

kle4

The leading party not even getting 20% is the sort of extreme splitting of the vote that worries some people about PR systems.

CarlottaVance

Is there a minimum threshold for parties to cross before they start getting seats? Any experts on The Dutch electoral system and its impact on potential outcomes?

RobD

Glorious fifth!

RobD

kle4 said:

The leading party not even getting 20% is the sort of extreme splitting of the vote that worries some people about PR systems.

So many parties.... it's disgusting!

MaxPB

RobD said:

kle4 said:

The leading party not even getting 20% is the sort of extreme splitting of the vote that worries some people about PR systems.

So many parties.... it's disgusting!

I prefer our glorious one party state that we're heading for with Corbyn in charge of Labour.

Torby_Fennel

My greatest friend is Dutch and Wednesday also happens to be her birthday. We never really talk about politics though. I hope this post is of use to everyone?

swing_voter

I remember in Autumn 16 how this was described as the election that was going to light a bonfire for the entire EU project with Netherlands, France and Germany following the BREXIT/Trump lead- I cant remember if it was Farage etc Anyway, it all looks reassuringly dull after the Westminster/Washington fireworks or is that wishful thinking

asjohnstone

CarlottaVance said:

Is there a minimum threshold for parties to cross before they start getting seats? Any experts on The Dutch electoral system and its impact on potential outcomes?

The threshold is 1/150th of the total number of valid votes

CarlottaVance

asjohnstone said:

CarlottaVance said:

Is there a minimum threshold for parties to cross before they start getting seats? Any experts on The Dutch electoral system and its impact on potential outcomes?

The threshold is 1/150th of the total number of valid votes

Thanks - that's quite a low threshold!

kle4

RobD said:

kle4 said:

The leading party not even getting 20% is the sort of extreme splitting of the vote that worries some people about PR systems.

So many parties.... it's disgusting!

Indeed. 2.5 is the only true way.

kle4

Torby_Fennel said:

My greatest friend is Dutch and Wednesday also happens to be her birthday. We never really talk about politics though. I hope this post is of use to everyone?

It suggests to me turnout will be low, as otherwise they'd surely be so excited about who might come top they'd tell you all about it.

P.s And I base that on absolutely nothing, do you know I'm right.

P.p.s I am not Donald trump.

JackW

Thank you Alastair for the betting analysis.

Would it make sense for two linked bets to qualify as "Double Dutch" ?

I'll get my clogs ....

CarlottaVance

Hugo Rifkind

Impressively, albeit not uncharacteristically, the person already in most of a mess about all of this is Jeremy Corbyn. On Saturday, he said that a second Scottish referendum would be “absolutely fine”. Yesterday he denied saying that, despite it being on film, before pretty much saying it again. Corbyn’s defence was that he actually meant Westminster shouldn’t block a second referendum if Holyrood wanted one, even though he personally didn’t. Presumably this means he’s now committed to voting for it, despite being against it. Man, he’s good. Either way, he’s also wrong. This will not be “absolutely fine”. Not for anyone.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/there-ll-be-no-winners-in-this-neverendum-2fpvdjqfj?shareToken=0533eae073a8a4b5465a39604afc24b9

IanB2

kle4 said:

The leading party not even getting 20% is the sort of extreme splitting of the vote that worries some people about PR systems.

But maybe you are mixing up cause and effect?

If voters and their allegiances are so fragmented that no party commands more than 20% support, even FPTnP cannot save you from a fragmented outcome (barring some truly bizarre geographical split of the vote that delivers a clearly illegitimate outcome, which is a big if different problem in those circumstances). People are already recognising that FPTnP is ceasing to "work" and hence lose its legitimacy with the loss of combined two-party support we already have in the UK.

CarlottaVance

Two views of the Merkel-Trump meeting, set now for Friday:

http://m.spiegel.de/international/world/a-1138244.html#spRedirectedFrom=www&referrrer=&spLeserKommentare

https://www.wsj.com/articles/5-things-to-watch-when-german-chancellor-angela-merkel-meets-donald-trump-on-tuesday-1489426260?mod=e2tw

MarqueeMark

JackW said:

Thank you Alastair for the betting analysis.

Would it make sense for two linked bets to qualify as "Double Dutch" ?

I'll get my clogs ....

I'll skip over that one.....

MarqueeMark

Just how much will we have the phenomenon of Shy Wildlings, I wonder?

Scott_P

CarlottaVance said:

Hugo Rifkind

Impressively, albeit not uncharacteristically, the person already in most of a mess about all of this is Jeremy Corbyn. On Saturday, he said that a second Scottish referendum would be “absolutely fine”. Yesterday he denied saying that, despite it being on film, before pretty much saying it again. Corbyn’s defence was that he actually meant Westminster shouldn’t block a second referendum if Holyrood wanted one, even though he personally didn’t. Presumably this means he’s now committed to voting for it, despite being against it. Man, he’s good. Either way, he’s also wrong. This will not be “absolutely fine”. Not for anyone.

@364690: Jeremy Corbyn started the day arguing with himself over what he said. Ending the day not turning up at his own emergency rally.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/momentumtrumpt1/status/841541941816885248

Casino_Royale

Wilders seems to have gone way over the top in recent weeks to me. Say what you like about Farage but he's never called for Korans to be seized from homes, or migrants "scum".

As per usual the politics of other countries makes British politics look like a teddy bears picnic.

I expect the results for the PVV to disappoint. But, then again, he has interesting hair.

ThreeQuidder

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

The leading party not even getting 20% is the sort of extreme splitting of the vote that worries some people about PR systems.

But maybe you are mixing up cause and effect?

If voters and their allegiances are so fragmented that no party commands more than 20% support, even FPTnP cannot save you from a fragmented outcome (barring some truly bizarre geographical split of the vote that delivers a clearly illegitimate outcome, which is a big if different problem in those circumstances). People are already recognising that FPTnP is ceasing to "work" and hence lose its legitimacy with the loss of combined two-party support we already have in the UK.

The two-party share of the vote went up in 2015.

OldKingCole

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

Thank you Alastair for the betting analysis.

Would it make sense for two linked bets to qualify as "Double Dutch" ?

I'll get my clogs ....

I'll skip over that one.....

Skate around it?

MarqueeMark

OldKingCole said:

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

Thank you Alastair for the betting analysis.

Would it make sense for two linked bets to qualify as "Double Dutch" ?

I'll get my clogs ....

I'll skip over that one.....

Skate around it?

Definitely skipping:

http://www.toypost.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Skipping.jpg

Sean_F

Casino_Royale said:

Wilders seems to have gone way over the top in recent weeks to me. Say what you like about Farage but he's never called for Korans to be seized from homes, or migrants "scum".

As per usual the politics of other countries makes British politics look like a teddy bears picnic.

I expect the results for the PVV to disappoint. But, then again, he has interesting hair.

As I said, people complaining about the "extremism" of our politicians should experience a country where real extremists enjoy substantial support.

logical_song

ThreeQuidder said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

The leading party not even getting 20% is the sort of extreme splitting of the vote that worries some people about PR systems.

But maybe you are mixing up cause and effect?

If voters and their allegiances are so fragmented that no party commands more than 20% support, even FPTnP cannot save you from a fragmented outcome (barring some truly bizarre geographical split of the vote that delivers a clearly illegitimate outcome, which is a big if different problem in those circumstances). People are already recognising that FPTnP is ceasing to "work" and hence lose its legitimacy with the loss of combined two-party support we already have in the UK.

The two-party share of the vote went up in 2015.

... to about 67%.

OldKingCole

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

Thank you Alastair for the betting analysis.

Would it make sense for two linked bets to qualify as "Double Dutch" ?

I'll get my clogs ....

I'll skip over that one.....

Skate around it?

Definitely skipping:

http://www.toypost.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Skipping.jpg

Try http://mashable.com/2016/01/05/netherlands-ice-skating/#qI0e3kVCQqqu

OldKingCole

Casino_Royale said:

Wilders seems to have gone way over the top in recent weeks to me. Say what you like about Farage but he's never called for Korans to be seized from homes, or migrants "scum".

As per usual the politics of other countries makes British politics look like a teddy bears picnic.

I expect the results for the PVV to disappoint. But, then again, he has interesting hair.

I fear the result for the PVV will be disappointing. By which I mean they’ll do reasonably well.

Blue_rog

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

shadsy

I agree with Alastair

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

I do think the media here have over-egged Wilders and Le Pen's prospects.

Incidentally, how swiftly are votes counted? They're not as lax as the London mayoral layabouts, are they?

peter_from_putney

A great betting thread by one of PB.com's best tried and tested bettors .... ignore him at your peril.

Roger

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

View_From_Cumbria

I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.

I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?

Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?

Sean_F

OldKingCole said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wilders seems to have gone way over the top in recent weeks to me. Say what you like about Farage but he's never called for Korans to be seized from homes, or migrants "scum".

As per usual the politics of other countries makes British politics look like a teddy bears picnic.

I expect the results for the PVV to disappoint. But, then again, he has interesting hair.

I fear the result for the PVV will be disappointing. By which I mean they’ll do reasonably well.

The latest poll by Piel suggests that the row with Erdogan has boosted all the right wing parties in Holland.

TwistedFireStopper

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

Morris_Dancer

F1: the spread markets are up. Because I am a hard-working hero, and not because I'm procrastinating from proper work, I shall immediately write the article on them I promised.

Edited extra bit: bugger. It's not the points markets, just the rubbish placement markets (not my cup of tea). I'll check later to see if the points markets are up.

Sean_F

View_From_Cumbria said:

I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.

I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?

Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?

Or that the SNP might lose?

Monksfield

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

I can only assume the tsunami was a tidal wave of froth emitted by Brexiteer ancestors. Except of course most of them would have been on the European bank at that point.

another_richard

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

That's the British 'Progressive Majority' which you're smelling.

rottenborough

Great post, but I'm sticking to focusing on FR election. Way too complicated in Holland.

Incidentally, there was a long article on PVV in Newstatesman a week or so ago. Probably online by now. The party is weird. Wilders is the only member, everyone else is a supporter. He lives like a monk, never going out as his life is at danger. His office is somewhere in MPs building, but fairly hidden and involves steel doors etc. Hardly anyone visits for security reasons. He sees his wife once a week.

Reading this I doubted very much he could be PM for a purely practical view, never mind he wont have the votes in Parliament.

peter_from_putney

In fact the PVV's odds with Betfair have shortened considerably compared with those of 2.66 quoted by Alastair Meeks and are currently 2.3, which equates to just 2.235 net of the exchange's 5% commission.
For those not looking to trade their bets in running, somewhat better odds of 2.375 (i.e. 11/8 in old money) are available against the VVD from those nice folk at Bet365 and Boylesport.

another_richard

Thanks for the tip.

I've followed it for a few quid.

Are the GroenLinks the people Nick Palmer was suggesting as a longshot ?

PlatoSaid

ONS
Have you seen our interactive world trade map? Explore UK imports & exports across the Commonwealth https://t.co/YyMkIcTqfy #CommonwealthDay https://t.co/aWEJprCfi2

Pong

I'm really annoyed I only exchanged half of my POTUS winnings for Indian magic beans rupees.

The other half, sat in my £ bank account, is worth less and less every day.

On topic; thanks for the interesting header/tip Alistair.

I'm not betting, though.

CD13

I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.

I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?

rottenborough

View_From_Cumbria said:

I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.

I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?

Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?

I'm sure it crossed the SNPs mind, but they can just keep up the pressure. Indeed, they get to look like they want one urgently, without actually having to have one. May may cave in for some reason, or be forced to by public opinion in scotland (in which case the time would be right for SNP to hold one and win).

malcolmg

View_From_Cumbria said:

I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.

I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?

Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?

She would never be brave enough or stupid enough to do that, that way lies madness.

Roger

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.

Alistair

View_From_Cumbria said:

I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.

I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?

Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?

Of course she might say No. That would certainly be an option.

IanB2

ThreeQuidder said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

The leading party not even getting 20% is the sort of extreme splitting of the vote that worries some people about PR systems.

But maybe you are mixing up cause and effect?

If voters and their allegiances are so fragmented that no party commands more than 20% support, even FPTnP cannot save you from a fragmented outcome (barring some truly bizarre geographical split of the vote that delivers a clearly illegitimate outcome, which is a big if different problem in those circumstances). People are already recognising that FPTnP is ceasing to "work" and hence lose its legitimacy with the loss of combined two-party support we already have in the UK.

The two-party share of the vote went up in 2015.

The legitimacy of the outcome, however, did not

OldKingCole

CD13 said:

I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.

I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?

IIR my WWII history C there was a significant Dutch Nazi organisation wasn’t there. Didn’t they contribute troops to the Wehrmacht?

SquareRoot

malcolmg said:

View_From_Cumbria said:

I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.

I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?

Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?

She would never be brave enough or stupid enough to do that, that way lies madness.

just delay it long enough for the Scots to work out the dissembling of Nicola et al.. The honeymoon is over.

Roger

View_From_Cumbria said:

I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.

I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?

Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?

Not without being a hypocrite and wrecking her own Brext negotiations

Sean_F

Roger said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.

Most people who voted Brexit are pretty happy with the outcome.

TwistedFireStopper

Roger said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for starters.

Ah, I understand. It's your innate hatred of Hartlepool rising up again.

IanB2

Sean_F said:

View_From_Cumbria said:

I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.

I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?

Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?

Or that the SNP might lose?

Now is the SNP's high water mark, with reaction against the Uk handing her the best chance. And I expect that not only was she very aware that the request might be refused, but that this is probably her expectation. Highhandedness by May and the UK government is one of her principal cards. If the mood turns against Brexit over the next couple of years, I suggest Sturgeon is very nicely placed. If the opposite happens, she was stuffed anyway.

HYUFD

Latest polls suggest both the VVD and the PVV slightly up since the Turkish row, if the VVD do come first it will be in large part because Rutte has toughened his anti immigration rhetoric in response to Wilders. The debates yesterday and today between the two men may also have an impact

MarqueeMark

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

The depths of Roger's depression, as he slowly realises Brexit is actually going to happen.

IanB2

CD13 said:

I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.

I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?

That is because most Brits think of the Netherlands (or more usually Holland) and imagine only Amsterdam. Just as thinking of the Uk as solely London would leave a visitor baffled at Brexit.

TwistedFireStopper

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.

Most people who voted Brexit are pretty happy with the outcome.

Hush now, Sean. We're all fat, thick, poor, tattooed, filthy pant wearing, xenophobic racists. Roger knows better.

CD13

Mr Cole,

"IIR my WWII history C there was a significant Dutch Nazi organisation wasn’t there/"

I'm sure you're right, but I was thinking more of the post-sixties. A man of your seniority would remember them well.

Pornography and Pot are my memories - but only from what I read.

IanB2

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.

Most people who voted Brexit are pretty happy with the outcome.

Lol @ "outcome"

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

CD13 said:

I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.

I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?

That is because most Brits think of the Netherlands (or more usually Holland) and imagine only Amsterdam. Just as thinking of the Uk as solely London would leave a visitor baffled at Brexit.

Rural and small town Holland is pretty conservative. The country returns three explicitly Christian parties to Parliament.

Scott_P

Sean_F said:

Most people who voted Brexit are pretty happy with the outcome.

Hold that thought, until, you know, it actually happens...

Bojabob

TwistedFireStopper said:

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.

Most people who voted Brexit are pretty happy with the outcome.

Hush now, Sean. We're all fat, thick, poor, tattooed, filthy pant wearing, xenophobic racists. Roger knows better.

Interestingly, I learnt here that there actually is a statistically significant correlation between voting for Brexit and being obese, pro-hanging and wearing dirty underwear. Amazing, but I am led to believe, entirely true. If you tick all three boxes you are Nigel Farage's wet dream, I guess. The truth is stranger than fiction.

Bojabob

CD13 said:

Mr Cole,

"IIR my WWII history C there was a significant Dutch Nazi organisation wasn’t there/"

I'm sure you're right, but I was thinking more of the post-sixties. A man of your seniority would remember them well.

Pornography and Pot are my memories - but only from what I read.

If you remember it, you weren't there.

TheWhiteRabbit

peter_from_putney said:

In fact the PVV's odds with Betfair have shortened considerably compared with those of 2.66 quoted by Alastair Meeks and are currently 2.3, which equates to just 2.235 net of the exchange's 5% commission.
For those not looking to trade their bets in running, somewhat better odds of 2.375 (i.e. 11/8 in old money) are available against the VVD from those nice folk at Bet365 and Boylesport.

Interesting.

I've been plugging the VVD on and off for three or four weeks, since they were 3.5. I've just got to decide whether to let my £20 run.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Bojabob, how very dare you? My lace undergarments are pristine, and I'm svelte as an elf on a diet.

Bojabob

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.

Most people who voted Brexit are pretty happy with the outcome.

What outcome would this be then?

kle4

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

The leading party not even getting 20% is the sort of extreme splitting of the vote that worries some people about PR systems.

But maybe you are mixing up cause and effect?

If voters and their allegiances are so fragmented that no party commands more than 20% support, even FPTnP cannot save you from a fragmented outcome (barring some truly bizarre geographical split of the vote that delivers a clearly illegitimate outcome, which is a big if different problem in those circumstances). People are already recognising that FPTnP is ceasing to "work" and hence lose its legitimacy with the loss of combined two-party support we already have in the UK.

I'm not mixing up anything - I'm saying some people not inclined to change from fptp think this sort of outcome is the fault of pr, and so want to avoid the chaos. I support pr. or pr2 I suppose.

TwistedFireStopper

Bojabob said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.

Most people who voted Brexit are pretty happy with the outcome.

Hush now, Sean. We're all fat, thick, poor, tattooed, filthy pant wearing, xenophobic racists. Roger knows better.

Interestingly, I learnt here that there actually is a statistically significant correlation between voting for Brexit and being obese, pro-hanging and wearing dirty underwear. Amazing, but I am led to believe, entirely true. If you tick all three boxes you are Nigel Farage's wet dream, I guess. The truth is stranger than fiction.

I guess I'm the exception that proves the rule. I find capital punishment abhorrent, I'm fit, and change my boxers every day. Yet I still voted Leave. I do have a tattoo, so maybe that's why!

another_richard

Scott_P said:

Project fear reality

@KathViner: Pound and shares hit again by Brexit crisis as gilt yields tumble – business live https://t.co/kil7bH0tcg

How's the stock market now Scott ?

Still perhaps it will all change with the autumn 2016 'Punishment Budget' you predicted not to mention Theresa May winning the Conservative leadership on an IN platform.

Wulfrun_Phil

Roger said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.

In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager les autres even though the citizens they represent (but are not accountable to) will bear twice the adverse impact of that judging from the imbalance in trade. My reaction to that is that it totally sweeps away the cosy image of internationalist cooperation with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.

TheWhiteRabbit

Incidentally the collapse of the PvdA as an electoral force might worry Jezza!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Rabbit, given the odds haven't shortened much, I'd probably just let it run. If they were down to 1.6-1.8 then hedging would be nicer.

Cyan

TV and radio time for some of the French presidential candidates, 1 Feb to 5 Mar:

https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/840301485950926848/photo/1

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

Hugo Rifkind

Impressively, albeit not uncharacteristically, the person already in most of a mess about all of this is Jeremy Corbyn. On Saturday, he said that a second Scottish referendum would be “absolutely fine”. Yesterday he denied saying that, despite it being on film, before pretty much saying it again. Corbyn’s defence was that he actually meant Westminster shouldn’t block a second referendum if Holyrood wanted one, even though he personally didn’t. Presumably this means he’s now committed to voting for it, despite being against it. Man, he’s good. Either way, he’s also wrong. This will not be “absolutely fine”. Not for anyone.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/there-ll-be-no-winners-in-this-neverendum-2fpvdjqfj?shareToken=0533eae073a8a4b5465a39604afc24b9

I do actually think I get what he was trying to say. Problem is, he says the media misreport what he said even when they quote him verbatim, like when his supporters complained of smears for reporting things he said. What tends to happen is he and they, perhaps truthfully, try to explain what he meant and how that's fine, rather than what he said. The problem there is he's supposed to be a good communicator, so it undermines him even while defending him.

Roger

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for starters.

Ah, I understand. It's your innate hatred of Hartlepool rising up again.

I use 'Hartlipool' because it's onomatopoeic (ref Bojabob 8.35) I could have used 'Grimsby' but that was taken by Sacha B C or 'Clackton' but I thought that was going over the top.

TheWhiteRabbit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rabbit, given the odds haven't shortened much, I'd probably just let it run. If they were down to 1.6-1.8 then hedging would be nicer.

3.5 > 2.3 is a decent percentage return but not a good return when you think of it in proportion to £20 and not £2000.

So yes, it'll run for now.

Paristonda

Casino_Royale said:

Wilders seems to have gone way over the top in recent weeks to me. Say what you like about Farage but he's never called for Korans to be seized from homes, or migrants "scum".

As per usual the politics of other countries makes British politics look like a teddy bears picnic.

I expect the results for the PVV to disappoint. But, then again, he has interesting hair.

He does seem to gone off the deep end - I think it's probably to be expected considering he has lived with round the clock security for over a decade due to fears he will be assassinated like others in the Netherlands who have spoken out against Islam. Must really poison the mind against the religion.

I don't think Wilders is really all that good of an example of populist politics a la Trump and Le Pen - he has very little to say on anything other than Islam. He appears to be a rabble rouser more than a serious politician trying to win like MLP (Trump obv not a serious politician but he was definitely playing to win!).

I agree that it looks like the PVV will underperform. I think there will be a sigh of relief in Europe when they do, and a mistaken idea that the populist tsunami is over.

Theuniondivvie

OldKingCole said:

CD13 said:

I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.

I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?

IIR my WWII history C there was a significant Dutch Nazi organisation wasn’t there. Didn’t they contribute troops to the Wehrmacht?

50k, to SS Divisions unfortunately.

Bojabob

Twisted

Glad to hear it. Not sure about the relevance of tattoos to be honest. Lots of dangerously liberal metropolitan types have tattoos.

HYUFD

Paristonda said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wilders seems to have gone way over the top in recent weeks to me. Say what you like about Farage but he's never called for Korans to be seized from homes, or migrants "scum".

As per usual the politics of other countries makes British politics look like a teddy bears picnic.

I expect the results for the PVV to disappoint. But, then again, he has interesting hair.

He does seem to gone off the deep end - I think it's probably to be expected considering he has lived with round the clock security for over a decade due to fears he will be assassinated like others in the Netherlands who have spoken out against Islam. Must really poison the mind against the religion.

I don't think Wilders is really all that good of an example of populist politics a la Trump and Le Pen - he has very little to say on anything other than Islam. He appears to be a rabble rouser more than a serious politician trying to win like MLP (Trump obv not a serious politician but he was definitely playing to win!).

I agree that it looks like the PVV will underperform. I think there will be a sigh of relief in Europe when they do, and a mistaken idea that the populist tsunami is over.

The PVV are already up on last election in every poll

peter_from_putney

CORRECTION OF EARLIER POST

In fact the VVD's odds with Betfair have shortened considerably compared with those of 2.66 quoted by Alastair Meeks and are currently 2.3, which equates to just 2.235 net of the exchange's 5% commission.
For those not looking to trade their bets in running, somewhat better odds of 2.375 (i.e. 11/8 in old money) are available against the VVD from those nice folk at Bet365 and Boylesport.

It's all those "V"s in the parties' names ..... very confusing!

Bojabob

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Bojabob, how very dare you? My lace undergarments are pristine, and I'm svelte as an elf on a diet.

Polling vs PB Leaver anecdote

rcs1000

MarqueeMark said:

Just how much will we have the phenomenon of Shy Wildlings, I wonder?

The PVV has typically performed about 1-1.5% better than its polls. I'm going to do an analysis of who does better than polls, and who does worse.

Big_G_NorthWales

malcolmg said:

View_From_Cumbria said:

I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.

I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?

Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?

She would never be brave enough or stupid enough to do that, that way lies madness.

I have no doubt at all that TM will not say no but I am equally sure that she will only grant the referendum post Brexit.

I have no idea how this will pan out but as I have deep family ties with Scotland I do worry about just how long the uncertainty will last and may well have an adverse effect on inward investment into Scotland.

Most of my family live in Elgin/Lossiemouth and the recent announcement by the UK Government to invest 400 million in RAF Lossiemouth gives security of jobs and prosperity but this investment, together with the ships to be built on the Clyde, could be at risk, as the RUK would not place this investment in an Independent Scotland - it would not be possible politically

kle4

Sean_F said:

View_From_Cumbria said:

I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.

I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?

Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?

Or that the SNP might lose?

An aura of inevitability, of Supreme confidence, is important to their message. It's at least more credible than when Greens claim to speak for the people.

rottenborough

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Incidentally the collapse of the PvdA as an electoral force might worry Jezza!

Nothing worries Jezza other than when to plant out his leeks.

rcs1000

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

I do think the media here have over-egged Wilders and Le Pen's prospects.

Incidentally, how swiftly are votes counted? They're not as lax as the London mayoral layabouts, are they?

It's all electronic in the Netherlands, so pretty quickly i think.

Sean_F

Theuniondivvie said:

OldKingCole said:

CD13 said:

I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.

I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?

IIR my WWII history C there was a significant Dutch Nazi organisation wasn’t there. Didn’t they contribute troops to the Wehrmacht?

50k, to SS Divisions unfortunately.

Almost every country contains people who would join the SS (or the Communist equivalent) if they got the chance.

IanB2

Paristonda said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wilders seems to have gone way over the top in recent weeks to me. Say what you like about Farage but he's never called for Korans to be seized from homes, or migrants "scum".

As per usual the politics of other countries makes British politics look like a teddy bears picnic.

I expect the results for the PVV to disappoint. But, then again, he has interesting hair.

He does seem to gone off the deep end - I think it's probably to be expected considering he has lived with round the clock security for over a decade due to fears he will be assassinated like others in the Netherlands who have spoken out against Islam. Must really poison the mind against the religion.

I don't think Wilders is really all that good of an example of populist politics a la Trump and Le Pen - he has very little to say on anything other than Islam. He appears to be a rabble rouser more than a serious politician trying to win like MLP (Trump obv not a serious politician but he was definitely playing to win!).

I agree that it looks like the PVV will underperform. I think there will be a sigh of relief in Europe when they do, and a mistaken idea that the populist tsunami is over.

Since he lives in hiding, and doesn't/cannot participate in normal political discourse, he is only going to get noticed by saying things that are more and more outrageous.

another_richard

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Roger said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Roger said:

Blue_rog said:

Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote

Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis

What has genuinely changed since the referendum?

It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.

In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager les autres even though the citizens they represent (but are not accountable to) will bear twice the adverse impact of that judging from the imbalance in trade. My reaction to that is that it totally sweeps away the cosy image of internationalist cooperation with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.

Indeed.

Having EverCloserUnion under the control of Brussels eurocrats would not have been good for Britain.

IanB2

Bojabob said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Bojabob, how very dare you? My lace undergarments are pristine, and I'm svelte as an elf on a diet.

Polling vs PB Leaver anecdote

The health benefits of sitting on your arse watching other people drive about have clearly been overlooked.

[Deleted User]

All seems pretty well in Brexitland to me. The weasels have had a go, initially got some mojo via the supreme court, but are now looking a bit deflated. A50 triggering imminent. I expect an early mutual recognition of rights for EU/UK citizens already resident once A50 is triggered. And Wee Jimmie Krankie has come too soon. May will simply tell her to wait until after Brexit is done. When rude Scotland vomits up a poison, must fine England lick it up for a restorative? No.

Richard_Tyndall

CD13 said:

I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.

I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?

As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.

For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.

another_richard

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Just how much will we have the phenomenon of Shy Wildlings, I wonder?

The PVV has typically performed about 1-1.5% better than its polls. I'm going to do an analysis of who does better than polls, and who does worse.

Don't PVV and the French NF do very well among young voters ?

Does France and Holland have the same differential turnout between old and young voters there is in Britain.

Cyan

"The polls might be wrong or there might be a last minute swing but there is no reason why either of those considerations should necessarily benefit the PVV rather than another party."

Ongoing events may persuade many that the PVV are where it's at.

rcs1000 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

I do think the media here have over-egged Wilders and Le Pen's prospects.

Incidentally, how swiftly are votes counted? They're not as lax as the London mayoral layabouts, are they?

It's all electronic in the Netherlands, so pretty quickly i think.

No - counting will be by hand, fear of hacking by "state actors" being the cited reason.