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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember five months ago when Hammond thought he was unsackabl
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember five months ago when Hammond thought he was unsackable?
Back in October the Telegraph’s James Kirkup wrote that how the Chancellor, Phillip Hammond believed that he was in a uniquely strong position in the cabinet
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Says a lot about the crapness of Mrs May, it took Margaret Thatcher a decade/six years to lose a Chancellor.
Mrs May might manage it in less than a year.
Oxford comma helps drivers win dispute about overtime pay
An overtime case that will delight grammar nerds everywhere hinges on the absence of an Oxford comma
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/mar/16/oxford-comma-helps-drivers-win-dispute-about-overtime-pay?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Granted this isn't the Roger Casement case, but still.
I reckon Jeremy Hunt might be worth a punt though I'd expect Mrs May to give it to one of the hardcore Leavers.
Then cry
Useful to know that intra-season imitation seems out of bounds.
A Greek far left group, the Conspiracy of Fire Cells, said on a website that it had sent the device.
Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/philip-hammond-suffers-poll-blow-as-hopes-for-the-economy-slump-a3491411.html
As always with this market, the value tends to be with the long-odds candidates, one of whose departure could easily come from some incident currently unknowable.
5...4..3..2...1...Justin Short Straws tells us using special reweighting mean the actual gap is just 5%.
Only 34 per cent think Mr Hammond is doing a good job, compared with 46 per cent who think he is doing badly. That marks a reverse of the November rating when 39 per cent were satisfied with him, and 28 per cent dissatisfied.
Just a third thought the Budget was good for them. Almost four in 10 thought it was bad for them.
Economic optimism has fallen, with 50 per cent thinking things will get worse over the next year, up from 44 last month. Just 22 per cent think things will improve, down six.
Half do not think the Government’s policies will improve the economy in the long term, while 44 per cent think they will. Some 42 per cent think the Budget was “bad” for the country, while 38 per cent say it was good.
Mr Llama, you will relieved to know I’m now being given a lift to the gin palace.
As we're up to 75% employment (I think) 0.75*0.075 = ~ 6% to be generous would potentially be disadvantaged by the NIC change. So what are the other 34% worried of 'bad for them' about ?
Wasn't he already asking Blair when he would be handing over to him by 2001?
When I did research earlier on this year, I think Ipsos MORI have had the lowest UKIP average this Parliament.
But YouGov earlier on this week in single digits for the first time since 2013, so perhaps we are seeing a trend.
What is the point of UKIP? They will just morph into a protest/anti-immigration party, and pretty fringe one. They've failed to become what they could have been, a proper alternative to labour votes in the north.
But I also support immigration subject to work visas and with no limit as I believe the limit will be dictated by economic needs. Indeed post Brexit I am not sure immigration will fall and it does not worry me at all
I expect TM to negotiate a good deal but it will not satisfy the UKIP supporters
Farage was an impossible act to follow, a dip in fortunes was always on the cards.
The Tories are polling in the 43%/44% range now.
One of the earliest things Sir Robert Worcestor told me was to ignore the lead but focus on the share of the vote.
Patriotic Alliance will be a 0 - 5% party for years.
Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI, said: “Public reaction to the Budget wasn’t in ‘omnishambles’ territory and there is little sign of voters swinging back to Labour.”
I cannot believe her hectoring is going to do anything to enhance her cause
This is before we come to more favourable LD territory such as Witney and Richmond. Lib Dems are definitely ahead of UKIP were there to be a GE tommorow I think.
I do acknowledge @isam point on policies being enacted however - the UKIP voter is surely quite content at the moment.
A Yorkshireman as PM would have been great for the country.
If one has the time the cabinet papers of 1940 and, more so, of 1945-50 are a jolly interesting read. So many modern myths are therein debunked.
https://twitter.com/flyingdavy/status/842279017864667136
Or this?
https://twitter.com/Phoenix45Blog/status/838512069368561669
In response to @SouthamObserver, who said this:-
"I feel the pain of those who were hoping to lecture the out of touch liberal elite about fascists winning the day in the Netherlands. Instead, the pesky old Dutch give the overwhelming majority of their votes to pro-EU parties. And now onto France."
I'm glad that fascists have not won the Dutch election. The fact that a party like Wilders' party can come second and that the winning party had to adopt some of Wilders' rhetoric, albeit toned down and less offensive, is not grounds for complacency, though.
Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.
60 years of all this peace and liberalism and diversity and European goodwill and ever closer union and yet we have - in Austria, in Greece, in Netherlands, in Germany, in France - parties which wouldn't have been given house room when I was growing up. The direction of travel is not good.
Europeans should be asking themselves some hard questions not behaving like Panglossian fools.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125708452
Gone through the connection troubleshooting page, but it doesn't seem like I have a connection problem...
Any thoughts? I've got some work to be getting on with which requires logging into various sites.
[And people wonder why I loathe technology. My copy of The Jewish War is functioning 100%. Because it's made of paper and ink without any software dicking about].
What is it about Devon that people who are born there go on to pretend to be from somewhere else.
Aside from Brexit (which is the biggie) they aren't, are they? Skimming their 2015 manifesto, few of their policies have been enacted by the government. On economy alone, reduction of the deficit has slowed (although they're ahead of the new plan AIUI), inheritance tax has not been abolished, the Barnett Formula has not been replaced.
Yes, I know they're only UKIP's manifesto, and it was written by the persona non grata Suzanne Evans. But they're UKIP's policies, and were designed to attract UKIP voters.
https://mobile.twitter.com/alexsau1991/status/842088817389666308/photo/1
Of far more interest than the fate of a Surrey MP or a MORI poll are my thoughts on this afternoon's nonsense in the Gloucestershire area:
Day three and with more fine weather the ground has dried to basically good so the heavy ground fans may be struggling - as for the Championship races - current prices with Hills:
1.30: POLITOLOGUE (6/1)
2.50: UXIZANDRE (4/1)
3.30: NICHOLS CANYON (10/1)
4.50: LA BAGUE AU ROI (8/1)
Good Luck to anyone trying to fund their St Patrick's Day costs this afternoon.
I think the family title gives away his Yorkshireness.
Just because someone is born in a stable doesn't make them a horse does it?
Our tax system needs a complete overhaul for the 21st century, but even a minor change to VAT over pastys, and a minor change to NIC is nigh on toxic.
Despite the Budget row, Theresa May’s honeymoon in the polls continues, with the Tories having a 13-point lead over Labour.
Can't imagine why......
All this does is guarantee SNP hegemony for the future and of course that's not all bad for the Conservatives as Black Rock will be along to tell us later.
Leaving the EU... leaving the single market, ending free movement
Without wanting to get into an all dayer with you over clause 2 section iv of a manifesto I haven't read, UKIP politicians seem pretty happy w Mays approach to Brexit, all the right people seem upset by it, so why not say you will vote Tory rather than UKIP? Life doesn't have to be one big moan, when you've won, you've won
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/841711033764970496
http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nigel-farage/nigel-farage-meet-marine-le-pen-the-full-interview/
One person was arrested but another suspect is on the run, a police source said.
Anti-terrorist commandos from the elite Raid force were sent to the scene, French news channel BFMTV reports.
The government sent out a warning of a terrorist attack via its mobile app.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39292755