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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP: circling the whirlpool
UKIP was very good for Brexit: if the party had never been created, Britain would almost certainly still be a member of the European Union.* Brexit, by contrast, has been disastrous for UKIP. Stripped of their two greatest assets – their mission and by far their most effective leader – UKIP has struggled since last July to find a purpose or a direction. Compounded by internal divisions, the estrangement of their major funder, and a gaffe-prone leadership, you might have expected that the inevitable result would be a major hit to their polling. In fact, it’s not quite as simple as that.
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Thanks David, an interesting read. I am cautiously optimistic about the locals for Team Blue. Should be an exciting night!
Contrast with the Greens incidentally. I don't think they'll ever fade away completely, because there is always more that one can do on the environment. Or with Labour: the income distribution will always be unequal, though absolute poverty has been largely consigned to the past. The Scots Nats are somewhere in between: even once Scotland has its independence, if it ever does, Scottish interests will still need protecting.
Special relationship vs strained relationship
“This was your choice of a question? There goes that relationship,” Trump joked after May called upon the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, who rose to her feet to ask a particularly tough question. There was raucous laughter in the room.
“Would you like to go first? Nice friendly reporter,” Trump said after Merkel called upon a reporter from the German Press Agency, who asked a similarly tough question. This time almost no one was laughing.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/17/may-trumps-merkel-in-relationship-with-us-president
Thank Goodness - the Four Day War is Over
Well, I’m glad that’s over and we can all get on with our lives, undisturbed by the prospect of a two-year campaign leading to indyRef2. Launched on Monday, sunk on Thursday – a mercifully short voyage.
Nicola Sturgeon’s unlikely success in allowing a Tory Prime Minister to speak for the great Scottish majority – who did not want to kick off another referendum, 30 months after the last one – is unlikely to be looked back on as her finest hour.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/brian-wilson-thank-goodness-the-four-day-war-is-over-1-4394217/amp
I fear the writer is a little optimistic, but Mrs McTrump appears to be back pedalling.....
May’s win vs Merkel’s score draw
May was able to come away from the US trumpeting a guarantee from Trump that he supported Nato, despite his having earlier called it an obsolete institution. While Merkel was able to extract a similar show of support for Nato from the US president, it came with strings attached. Trump said he had “reiterated strong support for Nato, as well as the need for our allies to pay their fair share”. He accused other nations of owing “vast sums”, which was unfair on the US. They “must pay what they owe”, he warned.
Alloa suggests Sturgeon may not be reading her nation’s mood with her customary skill. Residents this week described a sense that Sturgeon was breaking the promise that the 2014 was a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity, and expressed a surprising indifference about the whole question of Brexit, as well as a growing ennui with politics in general.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/17/no-one-is-talking-about-it-has-sturgeon-misjudged-mood-for-independence
(2)This section has effect despite any provision made by or under the European Communities Act 1972 or any other enactment.
Could provisions in other Acts have made the first clause void?
It makes quite clear that the will of Parliament is that the government issues an Article 50 notification
And it'll get worse tomorrow .... on the seventh day God rested ....
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/03/16/more-positive-assertive-and-forward-looking-how-leave-won-twitter/
Some extracts:
in most of the period the tweets by the Leave side dominated the day-to-day volume of tweets. A large-scale surge of tweets by Remain users came too late, right after the referendum on 24 June
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we also found that the language by Leave users was, relative to the text of pro-Remain users [...] oriented toward the future more, and less toward the past;
It was also a fantastic job by the government whips in both houses to get such a short Bill through unamended. Not even Ken Clarke voted against the final division!
The UK government's current position is that this question can be magicked away with technology. Will that stand up to reality?
Gordon Brown really is a ****ing idiot. Just a day after I say something nice about him, he's banging on about flinging more powers at Holyrood/the SNP.
Yeah, because constantly giving ground to devolution in one part of the UK has worked really well so far, hasn't it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39309133
Edited extra bit: I should add, I'm not saying the constitutional settlement should remain as is forever (indeed, I want an English Parliament) but reacting to the current situation by throwing a raft of powers at Holyrood will only embolden the SNP and exacerbate the as yet unanswered (unasked, you might even say) West Lothian Question.
it's short term tactical bullshit neglecting utterly the strategic picture. Very New Labour.
It increases the cost of failure for the EU - another factor encouraging them to act rationally in negotiations
You've really never done much negotiating, have you?
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/843006167836254209
Bad idea. If Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, they'd claim the 'Scotland' bit, however nonsensical that might be. If you want to change the name, call it 'Bank of United Kingdom'.....not that I'd bother.....
Based on your sentiments, having coffee on a day with a Y in it would call the "UK's territorial integrity is called into question".
Mr. Sandpit, not everyone... now May has to handle this as well as the SNP wanting another referendum and negotiating the EU exit.
Brown's a ****ing idiot. I know I wrote that already, but it's such an important point I felt it best I write it again just in case anyone missed it the first time.
I don't understand why Ireland would have to leave if it vetoed a deal. Sorry to be dim but could someone explain?
Conducting the negotiation with an imperialist hauteur that assumes the other countries of the British Isles have no choice but to follow the English simply guarantees the death of the UK.
If he really wanted to help he'd discuss how together the parties can come up with a solution - rather than playing sainted Labour vs evil Tories & extremist SNP.
I don't see why - consistent with the effective functioning of the UK single market - powers shouldn't be devolved as far as possible - including beyond Holyrood/Westminster......lets see how keen the SNP are on that!
If it sticks to its position then it would need to leave the EU rather than stay in with a hard border.
More likely the EU would come up with some transfer payments or some other way to manage what will be a substantial issue for Eire.
But either way it materially increases the cost/downside of a "no deal" option for the EU
(but to be clear, as per my other post, I think they are setting up a financial ask from the EU as compensation)
It would be the end of the EU if the EU were to meddle in a countries territorial integrity.
Agreed. It seems Brown wants to do to our constitution what he did to our economy.
But the TD has said that Eire won't agree to a deal with a hard border. I reckon that (at least for now!) he does have some right to speak for Eire.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7J60p2WkAAqqTd.jpg
Mr. Observer, throwing more power at Holyrood whilst England has nothing is unsustainable.
Let's say we did what Brown suggested. What's the point of Scottish MPs? Practically nothing they vote on will apply to their own constituents. Why should England then effectively be in a currency union with a practically independent Scotland?
If Scots want independence, they should vote for it. If there's a desire for increased devolution and a new settlement that applies to England, Wales and Scotland (Northern Ireland is obviously different for historical reasons) then fine. But chucking more power at one part of the UK is ****ing stupid.
On thread.. Nuttall is damaged beyond recovery, his by election disaster has seen to that, Unless Farage retakes the reins, UKIP are pretty much finished..
"Our friends over at Leave.EU very kindly decided to crown me 2016 Remoaner of the Year
Obviously I’m speechless, incredibly proud, and I couldn’t have done it without you.
And that title is obviously nothing compared to what I’m called on Twitter. The foul-mouthed creativity is actually quite marvellous – especially when you consider that its mostly from a bunch of blokes sat at home in their pants."
And the odd woman I would add.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/148806/tim-farron-york-conference-rally-speech/
But it doesn't matter whether it's a financial cost or Eire leaving - either way it makes the "no deal" option less palatable for the EU
Now if there's a referendum and a No vote the SNP will be bleating for a raft of new powers, with Brown on backing vocals.
Angela 1.2% of GDP on Defence Merkel got strings attached....
It limits the LDs appeal though, doesn't it? He's just as divisive as May and Sturgeon with the way he prioritises the EU above all else. It's just preaching to the converted.
and shouldnt that be "english" so you can get back to loathing your fellow country men
AFAIK there's no serious talk in Ireland to leave the EU.It transformed an economically depressed country into one of the most prosperous states in Europe. Ireland is an EU success story
The Brexit vote - which was a huge blow for Ireland - happened in the 21st century, of course.
Mr Dancer, be careful. That comment might potentially be libellous. And being sued by ****ing idiots angry at being compared to Gordon Brown would be embarrassing for you - not to say expensive.
Good luck with that......
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/breaking-paris-orly-airport-evacuated-after-gunshots-fired-inside-terminal-as-police-launch-security-operation/ar-BByiUiG?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartandhp
Brown's a moron.
Mr. Observer (2), you're still going on about English nationalists, who don't even have a party, whilst the SNP wants another referendum three years after their once-in-a-generation vote and the imbecile Brown is seeking to throw more powers to Scotland (with no devolution for England).
Honestly. I fear you're missing the point as much as a man who throws out a superfine nymphomaniac and her twin sister because they didn't fold their clothes up when they disrobed...