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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even at only 1/2, Macron remains the value bet
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even at only 1/2, Macron remains the value bet
France is no stranger to revolutions. It’s therefore hardly surprising that there’s a ready temptation – particularly after the Brexit vote in the UK and Trump’s election in the US – to seek both contemporary and historic parallels in the possibility of a Le Pen victory in May. Indeed, it’s so tempting that the odds have come quite out of line with the real chances.
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in favor of the free market
"liberal"
"neither right nor left"
"a collective solidarity."
"I am not a socialist."
presents himself as both a "leftist" and a "liberal."
Macron's stated aim is to transcend the left-right divide
"neither pro-european, eurosceptic nor a federalist in the classical sense"
which, collectively and cumulatively, is rather off-putting. It's a bit like a Fianna Fáil position of staying in power and managing and fiddling, but not having a proper philosophy. It left me thinking that I would want to vote for Fillon in order to stop Macron getting into the 2nd round, rather than wanting to vote for Fillon in order to stop Le Pen from winning.
Personally I’m still feeling surprised at Donald Trump’s attitude over his Health Care defeat. Why is he ‘blaming’ the Democrats; did he really expect them to co-operate in the evisceration of a flagship Dem policy?
He's learning that all the bluster in the world cannot alter the limits that a president has to work within.
You're being logical.
This is Trump we're talking about.
"Trumpworld" is an alternative universe.
Although bare chested Russian leaders provide us with many a titter filled moment ....
The Ferraris might just be close enough to compete this year after all.
I am hugely impressed by Grosjean.
How very dare you provide such information without the express authority of the site F1 wiffle stick purveyor ?!?
PBers have been banned for much less
Still I'm sure I've missed how this is all a briliant move that has destroyed Obama's legacy and guaranteed a permanent republican majority in perpituity.
In any event, he's not going to resign; nor is he likely to be impeached just for failing to pass legislation.
On the other hand, a disturbing number of Russians with links to his campaign have been getting shot or contriving to fall out of windows recently...
As for healthcare reform, I'll know the US government is serious about bringing their insane costs under control when a cap is put on damages for medical negligence cases, no win no fee lawyers are banned and any lawyer can be fined $100,000 for filing a case considered by the judge to be vexatious. For some reason I won't hold my breath waiting for that whichever bunch of losers is in power.
It also needs to have government backed health insurance based on ability to pay of course - as do we. But that's an entirely different problem.
I am continuing to lay Le Pen. My betting has a heavy bias towards Macron, but I'm keeping a decent green position on Fillion too.
Right now, I'm wondering just what Trump might have meant when he said "forget about the little shit":
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/obamacare-vote-paul-ryan-health-care-ahca-replacement-failure-trump-214947
Surely not speaker Ryan ?
F1: won't spoil it, but qualifying was quite interesting. Will set about writing the pre-race article. Not sure if I'll watch the highlights first.
On-topic: quite agree. It's as close to a done deal as can be. Despite much hedging, I'm still green, so thanks to the many people who tipped Macron long ago (I got on at 13, I know others did at either side of that).
See 7:13am for the untrammeled evidence.
Edited extra bit: the BBC don't have the qualifying results up. Lots of chatter about it, but it's not on the results page with timings.
.... That's pretty much coverage 101. Anyway, back to the official site.
Macron way well win, I'm not convinced 1/2 with 6 weeks to go is shrewd.
Very good thread header btw, about politics and betting, funnily enough.
@Plato gave the axeman a purse of pink silk embroidered with silver wire. She forgave him and placed her head on the block as her adherents wept softy.
Some onlookers thought they glimpsed the balding, statuesque but dominating figure of a man from behind a fine Aubusson tapestry screen. Was it him ?!?
The axe fell and @Plato was delivered into the oblivion of ConHome. Attendants dipped their computer screen cloths in the blood. There was a chill in the air as an AV thread moved the crowds back to the comfort of familiar matters ....
Hamon-Melenchon-Le Pen-Macron-Fillon are the confirmed runners.
#
Backing Juppe a few weeks back would have been an ante-post "move".
Of the 5 runners how do we price them.
Well starting with the outsiders, Hamon & Melenchon they are unlikely to make the final 2 - between them perhaps we can give 15-1 (At the very most).
We know that Fillon is unlikely to make the final two but party branding should hold him 3rd. Perhaps 6-1
Le Pen makes the final two but is a long way behind in any final two - particularly vs Macron. 9-1 to be generous to her.
We know Macron is likely to make the final two, and in that final two he is likely to win. Hence the 1-2 price.
What really drives up prices is the unique (compared to anyone else's system) reliance on for-profit insurance for both elective and essential treatment, and the inability of government to negotiate/set prices for treatments, drugs etc.
It is a fiendishly complicated system which makes the barest nod to the free market - and seems to participate in all of the problems and none of the benefits of either the private or the public sectors.
Look, I'm not saying he won't win just that I'm not convinced about the "value" which is of course subjective.
Douvan at 1-4 for his race was probably about right, though there is always the chance of an injury in running. Which occured.
Macron winning is probably slightly more certain than Douvan winning was. He can't get "injured in running"..
QED If this was a horse race, Macron would be 1-5, 1-6 to the starting gate.
I still think he is the main danger to Macron though - so I have him slightly +ve in the book.
Now she sleeps with the pussies.
All logic suggests Macron is a shoo in. I just can't apply logic to my last 3 major betting wins; so
I'm staying all green in this market...
Vote for my guy as he's a liar and also i will give the hostage takers everything the want.
He also is proud of the 'axis of evil' speech, the line in particular (which he wrote) and the whole general policy directive it indicated.
Mrs C, search your feelings. You know it to be true.
I was returning from France and called in on a couple of friends on the way to the airport
When I next switched on PB by chance there was a thread on the French elections so I thought I'd give it my 2 pennysworth. But the first post I read was from Surbiton saying MACRON was nailed on.....
I hadn't heard of him at the time so I read up on him and liked the sound of what I read so decided not to share my Fillon tip.....
And the rest might well be history.
Edited extra bit: of 2011, of course.
Arf.
But I am not sure I agree with you about the limited impacts of vexatious torts. I have been following a case in Ohio where a quack conspiracy theorist 'historian' has been suing people for accusing him of sexual harassment - even though he has actually publicly admitted that the charges of inappropriate behaviour are true. He's even included a string of emails where he repeatedly propositions a married woman to a threesome with yet another woman despite her telling him where to go in evidence, which alone should be enough to sink his case. He's demanding $3 million in damages, which would be a hundred times his earnings potential, and a full retraction.
Obviously unless the jury are all smoking weed this case is going to fail. But the defendants have already had to pay out around $30,000 in legal costs and the case is still ongoing. And given the stupid laws the US have on costs and bankruptcy, coupled with the fact that he is unemployed and has no assets, means that money is irrevocable.
Multiply that by five million and suddenly there is a major financial burden to be borne. So whether it's difficult or not, somebody needs to grasp the nettle and do it.
(Of course as most of us are on her invisible list it's not suprising that she missed them).
She nothing common did or mean
Upon that memorable scene,
But with her keener eye
The axe’s edge did try;
Nor call’d the gods with vulgar spite
To vindicate her helpless right,
But bowed her comely head
Down as upon a bed.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/25/pret-a-manger-looks-to-uks-teenagers-to-tackle-looming-staff-crisis
I guess most practioners of the political arts would get a guilty buzz out of creating a political meme regardless of the consequences. It's no 'project fear', mind.
If Trump can sell that line then he can sell anything (bar healthcare reform)
(Just making sure that I've not been "taken out" in the Great PB Brexiteer Massacre) !
IF Macron wins I'd like to put in a word for Surbiton.
I was returning from France and called in on a couple of friends on the way to the airport. I asked who would win the election-no iffs no buts-FILLON they said. Certain? Yes certain.
When I next switched on PB by chance there was a thread on the French elections so I thought I'd give it my 2 pennysworth. But the first post I read was from Surbiton saying MACRON was nailed on.....
I hadn't heard of him at the time so I read up on him and liked the sound of what I read so decided not to share my Fillon tip.....
And the rest might well be history.
Trump knows sod all about policy details and cares less. It would have been interesting to see Plato's reaction because this was Trump versus the right wing, not the left. Ryan's plan went down, not Trump's, because Trump never really had a plan and it is not even clear he cares very much about this issue.
I wonder if the Left will jump on this one?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/politics/316489/young-brits-lack-energy-says-boris-johnson/
What's more likely to happen is that Pret will just close down branches. The problem is that customers (us) will only pay so much for a cheese sandwich.
"
French Trader Was Forced To Work 30 Hours A Week
25-01-08
FRIENDS of rogue trader Jerome Kerviel last night blamed his $7 billion losses on unbearable levels of stress brought on by a punishing 30 hour week.
Kerviel was known to start work as early as nine in the morning and still be at his desk at five or even five-thirty, often with just an hour and a half for lunch.
One colleague said: “He was, how you say, une workaholique.
“I have a family and a mistress so I would leave the office at around 2pm at the latest, if I wasn’t on strike.
“But Jerome was tied to that desk. One day I came back to the office at 3pm because I had forgotten my stupid little hat, and there he was, fast asleep on the photocopier.
“At first I assumed he had been having sex with it, but then I remembered he’d been working for almost six hours.”