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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If they hadn’t have gone into coalition the LDs would likely h

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If they hadn’t have gone into coalition the LDs would likely have been favourites in Manchester Gorton

Although the arrival of George Galloway in the Manchester Gorton race has caused a tightening of the Lib Dem odds the position is nothing like as strong as it would have been if the party had not gone onto the Coalition with the Conservatives in 2010.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Labour must go for May locals or before to keep this seat safe, after the locals could be tricky and I suspect with a push Gorgeous George could play mischief if he has some sort of local support (leaflet stuffers etc). The fact that LDs will be playing the A50 card could make it a hard game to get the Labour vote out....and with a low turnout (which these seats trad have) it could be tricky,
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    If George Galloway won, it would be the most significant geo-political event since the Soviet-backed coup in the Tannu-Tuva People's Republic in 1929.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Third! Like SLAB......
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    Greetings from Hong Kong. There are more young French people here than ever. They seem to be coming over in droves. One positive result of this is that the number of good coffee and sandwich places has grown very rapidly.

    The new chief executive was elected yesterday: Carrie Lam. She was the Beijing candidate, so it's no surprise she came out on top. The electorate was restricted to an electoral college of just under 1,200 people made up of legislators and individuals representing companies, organisations, industry sectors etc. Madam Lam got 777 votes.

    It's not a popular result, to say the least. The results were carried live on the TV and I saw small groups assembling in front of sets that had been set up in restaurants, bars etc. As Madam Lam's vote moved towards the wining point, there were a lot of angry faces and much guttural Cantonese was being spat out.

    Seven is a very inauspicious number in Hong Kong, so getting it three times is not a brilliant start. Madam Lam has a hell of a job on her side, not only to win over the ordinary Hong Kong people, but also to persuade investors and institutions that the independence of the judiciary is still a reality.

    On the surface, Hong Kong continues to bustle and wheel and deal, but a lot of people are not happy with things. I am not sure Beijing has yet managed to put a lid on how this will manifest itself and would not be surprised if there are further large scale demos in the not too distant future.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited March 2017
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited March 2017
    I would have thought the Lib Dems were in with a good chance in Gorton, especially since the Labour leaders seem to be cosying up the the Tories the whole time, and helping them pass all their legislation. I have no inside knowledge about Gorton - just feedback from where I am.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    MTimT said:
    Nope:

    Professor of Political Science, Manchester University. Author, @RevoltonRight Editor, @sexliesvotes In God we trust, all others require data Dr B Fisher

    Manchester, England
    manchester.academia.edu/RobertFord


    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs

    Not quite as entertaining - but much more informative......
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Greetings from Hong Kong. There are more young French people here than ever. They seem to be coming over in droves. One positive result of this is that the number of good coffee and sandwich places has grown very rapidly.

    The new chief executive was elected yesterday: Carrie Lam. She was the Beijing candidate, so it's no surprise she came out on top. The electorate was restricted to an electoral college of just under 1,200 people made up of legislators and individuals representing companies, organisations, industry sectors etc. Madam Lam got 777 votes.

    It's not a popular result, to say the least. The results were carried live on the TV and I saw small groups assembling in front of sets that had been set up in restaurants, bars etc. As Madam Lam's vote moved towards the wining point, there were a lot of angry faces and much guttural Cantonese was being spat out.

    Seven is a very inauspicious number in Hong Kong, so getting it three times is not a brilliant start. Madam Lam has a hell of a job on her side, not only to win over the ordinary Hong Kong people, but also to persuade investors and institutions that the independence of the judiciary is still a reality.

    On the surface, Hong Kong continues to bustle and wheel and deal, but a lot of people are not happy with things. I am not sure Beijing has yet managed to put a lid on how this will manifest itself and would not be surprised if there are further large scale demos in the not too distant future.

    Thanks, interesting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Yes, probably, but it was the right call and it'd be a different world altogether.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    JohnLoony said:

    If George Galloway won, it would be the most significant geo-political event since the Soviet-backed coup in the Tannu-Tuva People's Republic in 1929.

    Of course, surprised the header didn't make the same point.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540


    On the surface, Hong Kong continues to bustle and wheel and deal, but a lot of people are not happy with things. I am not sure Beijing has yet managed to put a lid on how this will manifest itself and would not be surprised if there are further large scale demos in the not too distant future.

    A wise old cove remarked in 1997 that sooner or later Hong Kong would be 'just another city in China' - and moved the regional headquarters to Singapore....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited March 2017

    Greetings from Hong Kong. There are more young French people here than ever. They seem to be coming over in droves. One positive result of this is that the number of good coffee and sandwich places has grown very rapidly.

    The new chief executive was elected yesterday: Carrie Lam. She was the Beijing candidate, so it's no surprise she came out on top. The electorate was restricted to an electoral college of just under 1,200 people made up of legislators and individuals representing companies, organisations, industry sectors etc. Madam Lam got 777 votes.

    It's not a popular result, to say the least. The results were carried live on the TV and I saw small groups assembling in front of sets that had been set up in restaurants, bars etc. As Madam Lam's vote moved towards the wining point, there were a lot of angry faces and much guttural Cantonese was being spat out.

    Seven is a very inauspicious number in Hong Kong, so getting it three times is not a brilliant start. Madam Lam has a hell of a job on her side, not only to win over the ordinary Hong Kong people, but also to persuade investors and institutions that the independence of the judiciary is still a reality.

    On the surface, Hong Kong continues to bustle and wheel and deal, but a lot of people are not happy with things. I am not sure Beijing has yet managed to put a lid on how this will manifest itself and would not be surprised if there are further large scale demos in the not too distant future.

    Seems like a tricky situation - Beijing runs things there now, and obviously wants it to run like everywhere else eventually, and no outside force can stop that, but internally it still seems messy as plenty there have trouble accepting that seeming inevitably.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    I trust troubling tales on the doorstep as much as I trust a self evaluation by Donald trump.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited March 2017
    Support for the Union has strengthened among older people since the last independence referendum, according to a new poll. The BMG survey for The Herald found that 66 per cent of over-65s opposed independence, while 27 per cent were in favour, 6 per cent did not know and one per cent preferred not to say. The results mean that those who expressed a view were in favour of the Union 71 per cent to 29 per cent.

    Significantly, those who voted No to independence in 2014 were more likely to cast their ballot the same way today than those who voted Yes.

    Dr Michael Turner, research director and head of polling at BMG Research, said: "Although the headline figure suggests that the vast majority of those Scots aged 65 and over would vote No if another referendum were held today, the figures also suggest that support for the Union has strengthened slightly among older Scots since 2014. "Just 85 per cent of those who voted Yes in 2014 say that they would vote the same way today, compared to 92 per cent of those who voted No. "Interestingly it is Yes-Leavers (those who voted for independence in 2014 and to Leave the EU in 2016) who are most likely to have changed their mind, with just 79 per cent saying they'll vote the same way this time around.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15183097.Poll__Support_for_Union___39_strengthened__39__among_over_65s_since_2014/#comments-anchor
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    I'd caution punters against looking too hard for what they want to see here.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    Greetings from Hong Kong. There are more young French people here than ever. They seem to be coming over in droves. One positive result of this is that the number of good coffee and sandwich places has grown very rapidly.

    The new chief executive was elected yesterday: Carrie Lam. She was the Beijing candidate, so it's no surprise she came out on top. The electorate was restricted to an electoral college of just under 1,200 people made up of legislators and individuals representing companies, organisations, industry sectors etc. Madam Lam got 777 votes.

    It's not a popular result, to say the least. The results were carried live on the TV and I saw small groups assembling in front of sets that had been set up in restaurants, bars etc. As Madam Lam's vote moved towards the wining point, there were a lot of angry faces and much guttural Cantonese was being spat out.

    Seven is a very inauspicious number in Hong Kong, so getting it three times is not a brilliant start. Madam Lam has a hell of a job on her side, not only to win over the ordinary Hong Kong people, but also to persuade investors and institutions that the independence of the judiciary is still a reality.

    On the surface, Hong Kong continues to bustle and wheel and deal, but a lot of people are not happy with things. I am not sure Beijing has yet managed to put a lid on how this will manifest itself and would not be surprised if there are further large scale demos in the not too distant future.

    Lots of French? In Hong Kong?

    Interesting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761
    A poor result for Labour here is this seat being even close. They still win. Anything else is pretty much inconceivable.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    I’m sure Ms Williams of the Manchester Evening News is a jolly fine reporter, however I’d advise caution in reading too much into a few tweets.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Morning all.

    I’m sure Ms Williams of the Manchester Evening News is a jolly fine reporter, however I’d advise caution in reading too much into a few tweets.

    Real punters rely purely on polling subsampkes, thank you very much.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    On topic, the problem with counter-factuals like this is that they ignore what the other options were. We could certainly make the case that had the by-election been between 2003-10 the Lib Dems would have had good reason to be confident, and we could say that had the 2010 election produced a different outcome then the consequences for the Lib Dems wouldn't have been so disastrous (though one election at some point was always going to expose the fundamental flaw in the Lib Dem strategy, which was that being NOTA doesn't work when you get landed with the responsibility of being 'one of the above', as must inevitably be the case when you're the swing vote in the Commons; that the more seats the LDs won, the more likely such an outcome was; and that without a strong positive to fall back on in such a situation, their entire support base could easily collapse).

    The Lib Dems were, in 2010, faced with a very simple and predictable choice if the election produced no clear winner: back Gordon Brown and a Labour Party that had lost seats, or back Cameron and the Tories who had just won seats.

    The precise details - coalition vs supply and confidence / which policies to push for and which to drop - were up for grabs but that big call was absolutely obvious. Other options that might have appeared to exist dissolved when put under the spotlight. Backing neither wasn't credible unless neither party offered anything remotely reasonable. Pushing the country into a second election, having given up the opportunity of power would have been an obvious vote-loser, would have been undermined once the other parties published what they had offered, and would have led to the Lib Dems being blamed either for inflicting a single-party government of whichever stripe on the country or for waste and delay if the second election produced another inconclusive result.

    Similarly, backing 'Labour without Brown' wasn't possible. Who could they then negotiate with and on what authority? If Labour had a leadership election to go through, it would be Labour members that would determine what was acceptable, not the negotiating team. And of course, a Lab-LD coalition still wouldn't have had a majority, whoever led Labour.

    So I don't agree with the premise. If the Lib Dems hadn't gone into coalition with the Tories in 2010, they'd have had to have done something else. What?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    The LD position nationally would be very much stronger if Clegg had not taken them into that Coalition.

    However, Brexit aside, I suspect that country’s position would have been much weaker.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Crikey, not this debate again. Surely the discussion should be about Lib Dem appeal in northern cities and impending byelections such as Gorton, not endless navel gazing over the coalition decision of 2010.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    And the EU is an immovable object...

    https://twitter.com/ibtimesuk/status/846248238776770560
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761
    I broadly agree with @david_herdson. Pre 2010 Lib Dem supporters were against a lot of things, notably Iraq of course, but they were a lot less clear of what they were for. It was inevitable that when their votes ultimately counted a lot of their erstwhile supporters were going to be disappointed. The MPs themselves didn't really see it that way. Some of them at least (not Farron interestingly) came into politics to actually do things and this was their chance.

    And they did do things, many of them good. And then they screwed themselves by bad mouthing the government that they had been a part of in a desperate and forlorn attempt to recover their NOTA mojo. But if they had not joined the Coalition they would have been exposed for the waste of space that NOTA almost always is. And they would have been hammered anyway. Life's a bitch sometimes.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017
    Interesting thread.

    I found myself pondering where Scotland would be from 2011 if the LDs had not entered a coalition across the UK in 2010.

    No SNP majority? No referendum? No 2015 SNP landslide for Westminster?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Ahead of the meeting with Sturgeon, May will set out her "Plan for Britain" in an address at the Department for International Development (DFID) in East Kilbride.

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/may-prepares-hail-union-unstoppable-force-ahead-sturgeon-meeting-1613820

    I wonder how many DFID employees would keep their jobs in an Independent Scotland....
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,191
    EU to be open about its negotiating strategy. This has to be the way forward, puts pressure on May and will make it harder for the UK press to blame nasty Europeans.

    https://www.ft.com/content/2476d5c6-107a-11e7-b030-768954394623
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,746
    Another date on the sellout Smaygol 'Preshuss, preshuss Union' tour - Good morning East Kilbride!

    'A triumph!' - all PB Brexityoons.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    To be fair, Ms Williams did tweet that no one is yet predicting that Labour will lose the seat.

    I would have thought middle class Labour supporters would be a bit more likely to change their vote than working class Labour supporters, but rather less likely to abstain. In practice I expect that a high proportion of those longstanding middle class Labour voters will rail at the canvassers and then vote Labour on the day.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Good morning referendum losers !!! My fellow Britons and non europeans.

    Started the whinge shift early.today.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited March 2017
    The coalition is the greatest misstep in British politics.

    Brough Tories off life support, trashed LD brand, destroyed 30 years of ld gains and made Brexit possible.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited March 2017
    Off topic, does anyone one know why Marine Le Pen has drifted to 5.3/5.4 on Betfair overnight?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876

    Greetings from Hong Kong. There are more young French people here than ever. They seem to be coming over in droves. One positive result of this is that the number of good coffee and sandwich places has grown very rapidly.

    The new chief executive was elected yesterday: Carrie Lam. She was the Beijing candidate, so it's no surprise she came out on top. The electorate was restricted to an electoral college of just under 1,200 people made up of legislators and individuals representing companies, organisations, industry sectors etc. Madam Lam got 777 votes.

    It's not a popular result, to say the least. The results were carried live on the TV and I saw small groups assembling in front of sets that had been set up in restaurants, bars etc. As Madam Lam's vote moved towards the wining point, there were a lot of angry faces and much guttural Cantonese was being spat out.

    Seven is a very inauspicious number in Hong Kong, so getting it three times is not a brilliant start. Madam Lam has a hell of a job on her side, not only to win over the ordinary Hong Kong people, but also to persuade investors and institutions that the independence of the judiciary is still a reality.

    On the surface, Hong Kong continues to bustle and wheel and deal, but a lot of people are not happy with things. I am not sure Beijing has yet managed to put a lid on how this will manifest itself and would not be surprised if there are further large scale demos in the not too distant future.

    Lots of French? In Hong Kong?

    Interesting.

    London aside, Hong Kong is home to the world's largest French ex-pat community:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/expat/2015/08/05/the-hottest-spot-for-french-expats-these-days-is-hong-kong/

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    edited March 2017
    Jonathan said:

    The coalition is the greatest misstep in British politics.

    Brough Tories off life support, trashed LD brand, destroyed 30 years of ld gains and made Brexit possible.

    And your problem is,caller?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Good luck to those betting on Gorton, not that you can all be lucky. I'm glad I've stayed out of this one though.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    To be fair, Ms Williams did tweet that no one is yet predicting that Labour will lose the seat.

    I would have thought middle class Labour supporters would be a bit more likely to change their vote than working class Labour supporters, but rather less likely to abstain. In practice I expect that a high proportion of those longstanding middle class Labour voters will rail at the canvassers and then vote Labour on the day.

    Were this a general election, where the future of the country is up for grabs then yes, that's what I'd expect too. But by-elections are a cost-free exercise to voters where they can rail at the canvassers and then again at the ballot box.

    Labour still ought to win this, not least because the LDs will have multiple focusses for their resources for a May 4 by-election.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Off topic, does anyone one know why Marine Le Pen has drifted to 5.3/5.4 on Betfair overnight?

    People have finally bothered to start to understand how the election works and can read opinion polls?
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711

    Off topic, does anyone one know why Marine Le Pen has drifted to 5.3/5.4 on Betfair overnight?

    No news or new polls that I can find to have caused that. Fillon was being backed fairly heavily by someone last night from around 9 to 7.6, for some reason, The see-saw effect meant that the price of one of the other options had to go out.

    Having said that, if the betting infers that Fillon is becoming more likely to make it to round 2, one would have to assume that this scenario actually improves Le Pen's chances of winning as she would have a much tougher job if up against Macron.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    To be fair, Ms Williams did tweet that no one is yet predicting that Labour will lose the seat.

    I would have thought middle class Labour supporters would be a bit more likely to change their vote than working class Labour supporters, but rather less likely to abstain. In practice I expect that a high proportion of those longstanding middle class Labour voters will rail at the canvassers and then vote Labour on the day.

    Were this a general election, where the future of the country is up for grabs then yes, that's what I'd expect too. But by-elections are a cost-free exercise to voters where they can rail at the canvassers and then again at the ballot box.

    Labour still ought to win this, not least because the LDs will have multiple focusses for their resources for a May 4 by-election.
    There will be a lot of Labour voters who will abstain, but not enough to lose the seat, unless Labour are doing even worse than current polls(not impossible)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Have the Lib Dems changed their approach to coalitions in government?

    Off-topic: enjoy my delightful post-race analysis here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/australia-post-race-analysis-2017.html

    It was a good weekend, with quite a few tips coming off (including a pair from Mr. M). Very unusual for me to start the season green, although the last time it happened I ended up red for the season as a whole, so best not to get too carried away.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited March 2017
    @SouthamObserver and HK.

    I remember being in Statue Square on June 30 1997. A tremendous experience (of course I was an ex-pat).

    No one then or now should underestimate the feelings of the PRC towards the former colony. It is an inalienable part of China and people ignore that position at their peril.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Jonathan said:

    The coalition is the greatest misstep in British politics.

    Brough Tories off life support, trashed LD brand, destroyed 30 years of ld gains and made Brexit possible.

    It's almost a given that the Greens UKIP and SNP gained immediately while Labour were kept on life support. Clegg was always an infinitely more sellable alternative to Cameron than any Labour leader of the last decade.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    On the LDs, they could've got away with being in Coalition if they hadn't u-turned on their flagship policy within months and had negotiated for something better than a referendum on a voting system they didn't want.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Essexit said:

    On the LDs, they could've got away with being in Coalition if they hadn't u-turned on their flagship policy within months and had negotiated for something better than a referendum on a voting system they didn't want.

    If they'd had the EU referendum during that period then it would have been won, and Cameron could have survived winning a majority.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited March 2017
    Jonathan said:

    The coalition is the greatest misstep in British politics.

    Brough Tories off life support, trashed LD brand, destroyed 30 years of ld gains and made Brexit possible.

    Yes.

    Extraordinary isn't it.

    It could almost be a grand design

    And now we need them they're not there because they soiled themselves at precisely the wrong moment. The moment they could have made a difference
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    TOPPING said:

    @SouthamObserver and HK.

    I remember being in Statue Square on June 30 1997. A tremendous experience (of course I was an ex-pat).

    No one then or now should underestimate the feelings of the PRC towards the former colony. It is an inalienable part of China and people ignore that position at their peril.

    Absolutely - China will not yield. Hong Kongers have always been practical and work and family focused. But a lot of young people here have studied and lived abroad, and have ideas that their parents would never have dreamed of. I fear for what may happen when that hits the no compromise Chinese wall.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876

    Greetings from Hong Kong. There are more young French people here than ever. They seem to be coming over in droves. One positive result of this is that the number of good coffee and sandwich places has grown very rapidly.

    The new chief executive was elected yesterday: Carrie Lam. She was the Beijing candidate, so it's no surprise she came out on top. The electorate was restricted to an electoral college of just under 1,200 people made up of legislators and individuals representing companies, organisations, industry sectors etc. Madam Lam got 777 votes.

    It's not a popular result, to say the least. The results were carried live on the TV and I saw small groups assembling in front of sets that had been set up in restaurants, bars etc. As Madam Lam's vote moved towards the wining point, there were a lot of angry faces and much guttural Cantonese was being spat out.

    Seven is a very inauspicious number in Hong Kong, so getting it three times is not a brilliant start. Madam Lam has a hell of a job on her side, not only to win over the ordinary Hong Kong people, but also to persuade investors and institutions that the independence of the judiciary is still a reality.

    On the surface, Hong Kong continues to bustle and wheel and deal, but a lot of people are not happy with things. I am not sure Beijing has yet managed to put a lid on how this will manifest itself and would not be surprised if there are further large scale demos in the not too distant future.

    Lots of French? In Hong Kong?

    Interesting.

    London aside, Hong Kong is home to the world's largest French ex-pat community:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/expat/2015/08/05/the-hottest-spot-for-french-expats-these-days-is-hong-kong/

    I am told by my colleagues in our office here that apart from the whole banking thing, a lot of French people have come over to exploit the Chinese love of expensive wine and luxury goods. There are import/export fortunes to be made, and now a service industry has grown up around catering for the well-off French ex-pats - this is what brings the younger French people over. I have been coming to Hong Kong for over 20 years and never used to ear French spoken. Now it is everywhere.


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Jonathan said:

    The coalition is the greatest misstep in British politics.

    Brough Tories off life support, trashed LD brand, destroyed 30 years of ld gains and made Brexit possible.

    The coalition will be looked back on as the most stable and best period of government post-war, especially given the context of the financial crash.

    I remember on here how people kept on predicting it would last only a month; a few months; a year: instead the common sense and practicality of the main players meant it lasted an entire term.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    If Labour lose in a place with the ethnic demographic of Gorton then there are no wheels left on their wagon. Given their recent win in Stoke, a loss still seems highly unlikely.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Essexit, they would have got away with it, if it hadn't been for those pesky Tories!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Again O/t, but, from the BBC site 'Home Secretary Amber Rudd said encrypted messages must be accessible to intelligence services fighting terror, ..... (and) ...... is holding talks with other EU ministers in Brussels to discuss ways of preventing further attacks and will later this week meet technology firms.

    Why, if we are Leaving is she ‘bothering' with the rest of the EU? Or is this a recognition that we are, in fact, irresistibly drawn to pan-European solutions?
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    I can't comprehend why anybody would ever vote for Galloway
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited March 2017
    BudG said:

    Off topic, does anyone one know why Marine Le Pen has drifted to 5.3/5.4 on Betfair overnight?

    No news or new polls that I can find to have caused that. Fillon was being backed fairly heavily by someone last night from around 9 to 7.6, for some reason, The see-saw effect meant that the price of one of the other options had to go out.

    Having said that, if the betting infers that Fillon is becoming more likely to make it to round 2, one would have to assume that this scenario actually improves Le Pen's chances of winning as she would have a much tougher job if up against Macron.
    Thanks. And I agree with your second paragraph. I'm thinking of doing a thread header about this (subject to getting my maths right, which @isam has been very helpful in correcting).
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Greetings from Hong Kong. There are more young French people here than ever. They seem to be coming over in droves. One positive result of this is that the number of good coffee and sandwich places has grown very rapidly.

    The new chief executive was elected yesterday: Carrie Lam. She was the Beijing candidate, so it's no surprise she came out on top. The electorate was restricted to an electoral college of just under 1,200 people made up of legislators and individuals representing companies, organisations, industry sectors etc. Madam Lam got 777 votes.

    It's not a popular result, to say the least. The results were carried live on the TV and I saw small groups assembling in front of sets that had been set up in restaurants, bars etc. As Madam Lam's vote moved towards the wining point, there were a lot of angry faces and much guttural Cantonese was being spat out.

    Seven is a very inauspicious number in Hong Kong, so getting it three times is not a brilliant start. Madam Lam has a hell of a job on her side, not only to win over the ordinary Hong Kong people, but also to persuade investors and institutions that the independence of the judiciary is still a reality.

    On the surface, Hong Kong continues to bustle and wheel and deal, but a lot of people are not happy with things. I am not sure Beijing has yet managed to put a lid on how this will manifest itself and would not be surprised if there are further large scale demos in the not too distant future.

    Lots of French? In Hong Kong?

    Interesting.

    London aside, Hong Kong is home to the world's largest French ex-pat community:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/expat/2015/08/05/the-hottest-spot-for-french-expats-these-days-is-hong-kong/

    I am told by my colleagues in our office here that apart from the whole banking thing, a lot of French people have come over to exploit the Chinese love of expensive wine and luxury goods. There are import/export fortunes to be made, and now a service industry has grown up around catering for the well-off French ex-pats - this is what brings the younger French people over. I have been coming to Hong Kong for over 20 years and never used to ear French spoken. Now it is everywhere.


    A perfect example of why a free market is the only way we prosper.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    King Cole, Rudd's a full-blown moron on her encryption idiocy. It's ****ing insane.

    I'm not tech-savvy, but the fact the Home Secretary (like Cameron, a couple of years ago) can't see a rather glaring problem with making a back door in encryption is alarming.

    By that rationale, we should ban knives and cars too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Given Manchester has a majority renting and a third of the population are students and a third Muslim and Labour won over 60% of the vote there at the last election, if Corbyn can't win here where can he win?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    If Labour lose Manchester Gorton under these circumstances then they are on course for their worst result since at least 1906. The party would be well and truly over and historians of the future would bookend the 'Labour century' from 1918 (when fear of Labour led the Unionists into a renewed coalition with Lloyd George) to 2015 (which will have been the last time Labour were challengers for power). The irony of course is that at no point until the time of Tony Blair did they hold power for more than six years - yet that will still have been the century of 'organised Labour' and much ink will doubtless be spilled explaining how this had an impact far beyond their time in government.

    But surely even Labour can't lose this one. Surely.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I can't comprehend why anybody would ever vote for Galloway

    He was impressive when he attended the USA Senate committee back in 2005.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Another date on the sellout Smaygol 'Preshuss, preshuss Union' tour - Good morning East Kilbride!

    'A triumph!' - all PB Brexityoons.
    What's all this sticking flags up behind them all about? Something a bit too American and not quite wholesome for my taste.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    edited March 2017
    Jonathan said:

    The coalition is the greatest misstep in British politics.

    Brough[t] Tories off life support, trashed LD brand, destroyed 30 years of ld gains and made Brexit possible.

    I disagree on all calls.

    1. It didn't bring the Tories off life-support: they'd just made more gains at a general election than any party bar Blair in 1997 since WWII. Had the Tories formed a minority government, the likely outcome is that there'd have been a second election within 18 months, which would have produced a Con majority. Labour wouldn't have been able to disassociate itself from its past (indeed, there'd have been a huge argument as to whether it should or not), and Cameron and Osborne would have run the 2010-11 government on the basis of not scaring the horses: prudence with a purpose, or something alike.

    2. Yes, it did destroy 30 years (more, in fact) of LD gains but much of that was inevitable given the LD strategy which was always untenable in a hung parliament where their votes mattered. True, they wouldn't have been reduced to 8 seats but they would still have taken a hammering.

    3. The EU itself made Brexit possible. Sentiment within the country and the Tory party was always moving towards Brexit and it's quite possible that the 2015/16 election would have been fought with a Con manifesto pledge of In/Out anyway. If not, one would have come at some point. The EU's continuing push to integrate would have continued to grate in the media and among large parts of the Tory party. But were the EU popular then Brexit would never have been an issue - and it wasn't the coalition that made it unpopular.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    ydoethur said:

    If Labour lose Manchester Gorton under these circumstances then they are on course for their worst result since at least 1906. The party would be well and truly over and historians of the future would bookend the 'Labour century' from 1918 (when fear of Labour led the Unionists into a renewed coalition with Lloyd George) to 2015 (which will have been the last time Labour were challengers for power). The irony of course is that at no point until the time of Tony Blair did they hold power for more than six years - yet that will still have been the century of 'organised Labour' and much ink will doubtless be spilled explaining how this had an impact far beyond their time in government.

    But surely even Labour can't lose this one. Surely.

    I seem to recall that Mr Smithson posted stats about Tories well in the lead with 18-24s that could castrate the student vote for starters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    BudG said:

    Off topic, does anyone one know why Marine Le Pen has drifted to 5.3/5.4 on Betfair overnight?

    No news or new polls that I can find to have caused that. Fillon was being backed fairly heavily by someone last night from around 9 to 7.6, for some reason, The see-saw effect meant that the price of one of the other options had to go out.

    Having said that, if the betting infers that Fillon is becoming more likely to make it to round 2, one would have to assume that this scenario actually improves Le Pen's chances of winning as she would have a much tougher job if up against Macron.
    There is not a vast difference between Le Pen' s score v Fillon or Macron and she is more likely to be able to win over Fillon voters in the runoff than Macron's
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    I can't comprehend why anybody would ever vote for Galloway

    What is the significant difference between Galloway and Corbyn? Serious question. As far as I can see, the only major difference is that one is a member of the Labour party and one isn't. Otherwise everything else is near identical - even their parents had similar jobs, although Corbyn's parents were rich and Galloway's were not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    chestnut said:

    Interesting thread.

    I found myself pondering where Scotland would be from 2011 if the LDs had not entered a coalition across the UK in 2010.

    No SNP majority? No referendum? No 2015 SNP landslide for Westminster?

    No all those things would have happened even with a Lab LD coalition or a Tory minority government
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    King Cole, Rudd's a full-blown moron on her encryption idiocy. It's ****ing insane.

    I'm not tech-savvy, but the fact the Home Secretary (like Cameron, a couple of years ago) can't see a rather glaring problem with making a back door in encryption is alarming.

    By that rationale, we should ban knives and cars too.

    One hopes that it's just politics, and that the proposal is a deliberate attempt to force the companies to say 'no, we can't do that', which would then - given the nature of the request - make it incumbent upon them to come up with a counter-proposal; namely that they supply the messages / postings / communicated data themselves.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Essexit said:

    On the LDs, they could've got away with being in Coalition if they hadn't u-turned on their flagship policy within months and had negotiated for something better than a referendum on a voting system they didn't want.

    Easy to say. Early in the coalition the LibDems did invest a bit of time looking around the world for lessons from junior coalition situations that had turned out well. The problem is that there really aren't any.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Doethur, Galloway can be a skilled public speaker. Corbyn cannot.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    ydoethur said:

    If Labour lose Manchester Gorton under these circumstances then they are on course for their worst result since at least 1906. The party would be well and truly over and historians of the future would bookend the 'Labour century' from 1918 (when fear of Labour led the Unionists into a renewed coalition with Lloyd George) to 2015 (which will have been the last time Labour were challengers for power). The irony of course is that at no point until the time of Tony Blair did they hold power for more than six years - yet that will still have been the century of 'organised Labour' and much ink will doubtless be spilled explaining how this had an impact far beyond their time in government.

    But surely even Labour can't lose this one. Surely.

    I seem to recall that Mr Smithson posted stats about Tories well in the lead with 18-24s that could castrate the student vote for starters.
    I doubt if that would be true in Manchester - there are quite a lot of ex-polys scattered around which tend to attract more radical students in my admittedly anecdotal experience of teaching in both a redbrick and a poly. But in any case, as we are always told the key thing about students is that they don't vote. Alistair's right I think that this hinges on whether the middle class grouse but ultimately stay loyal to Labour or not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    King Cole, Rudd's a full-blown moron on her encryption idiocy. It's ****ing insane.

    I'm not tech-savvy, but the fact the Home Secretary (like Cameron, a couple of years ago) can't see a rather glaring problem with making a back door in encryption is alarming.

    By that rationale, we should ban knives and cars too.

    Governments and security services have tunnel vision on this subject, seeing only the gain they hope for and ignoring the complexities.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Herdson, sadly, I think it's likelier Rudd's dumb as a post.

    I hope you're right. Cameron made similarly idiotic suggestions and then backed down.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Support for the Union has strengthened among older people since the last independence referendum, according to a new poll. The BMG survey for The Herald found that 66 per cent of over-65s opposed independence, while 27 per cent were in favour, 6 per cent did not know and one per cent preferred not to say. The results mean that those who expressed a view were in favour of the Union 71 per cent to 29 per cent.

    Significantly, those who voted No to independence in 2014 were more likely to cast their ballot the same way today than those who voted Yes.

    Dr Michael Turner, research director and head of polling at BMG Research, said: "Although the headline figure suggests that the vast majority of those Scots aged 65 and over would vote No if another referendum were held today, the figures also suggest that support for the Union has strengthened slightly among older Scots since 2014. "Just 85 per cent of those who voted Yes in 2014 say that they would vote the same way today, compared to 92 per cent of those who voted No. "Interestingly it is Yes-Leavers (those who voted for independence in 2014 and to Leave the EU in 2016) who are most likely to have changed their mind, with just 79 per cent saying they'll vote the same way this time around.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15183097.Poll__Support_for_Union___39_strengthened__39__among_over_65s_since_2014/#comments-anchor

    Interesting, so if anything far from breaking the Union by shifting No Remain voters to Yes as expected it has in fact slightly shifted things the other way with Yes Leave voters moving to No
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    ydoethur said:

    I can't comprehend why anybody would ever vote for Galloway

    What is the significant difference between Galloway and Corbyn? Serious question. As far as I can see, the only major difference is that one is a member of the Labour party and one isn't. Otherwise everything else is near identical - even their parents had similar jobs, although Corbyn's parents were rich and Galloway's were not.
    Corbyn Has A Gentler Personality, Except When He Loses His Rag.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    Mr. Doethur, Galloway can be a skilled public speaker. Corbyn cannot.

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I can't comprehend why anybody would ever vote for Galloway

    What is the significant difference between Galloway and Corbyn? Serious question. As far as I can see, the only major difference is that one is a member of the Labour party and one isn't. Otherwise everything else is near identical - even their parents had similar jobs, although Corbyn's parents were rich and Galloway's were not.
    Corbyn Has A Gentler Personality, Except When He Loses His Rag.
    Good answers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Another date on the sellout Smaygol 'Preshuss, preshuss Union' tour - Good morning East Kilbride!

    'A triumph!' - all PB Brexityoons.
    I seem to recall being chided by you for reacting to what I predicted others woukd say before they actually said it.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Bradford (2014), Bethnall Green and Bow (2005) is really useful to seeing what George is capable of......a bit like the SNP he is regularly underestimated by the Westminster establishment, he wont win but he will whip up interest far more than appearances by JC and if the turnout is as bad, which favoured the LDs in 2005, then Labour need to take this contest seriously.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Labour lose Manchester Gorton under these circumstances then they are on course for their worst result since at least 1906. The party would be well and truly over and historians of the future would bookend the 'Labour century' from 1918 (when fear of Labour led the Unionists into a renewed coalition with Lloyd George) to 2015 (which will have been the last time Labour were challengers for power). The irony of course is that at no point until the time of Tony Blair did they hold power for more than six years - yet that will still have been the century of 'organised Labour' and much ink will doubtless be spilled explaining how this had an impact far beyond their time in government.

    But surely even Labour can't lose this one. Surely.

    I seem to recall that Mr Smithson posted stats about Tories well in the lead with 18-24s that could castrate the student vote for starters.
    I doubt if that would be true in Manchester - there are quite a lot of ex-polys scattered around which tend to attract more radical students in my admittedly anecdotal experience of teaching in both a redbrick and a poly. But in any case, as we are always told the key thing about students is that they don't vote. Alistair's right I think that this hinges on whether the middle class grouse but ultimately stay loyal to Labour or not.
    If that's the case then the LibDems are strategically well placed. Galloway will force Labour to respond from the left, at a time when they are already positioned beyond where most voters feel comfortable. Yet Labour will struggle to win the air war against Galloway who is a master of outrageous populism. My instinct is that Galloway's brand is past its best, including with Muslim voters, and it will be interesting to see what sort of ground war he can mobilise. Nevertheless having to respond to Galloway will do Labour no favours in what otherwise would have been a straight Left v Centre battleground - which in itself present Labour with a few strategic difficulties.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    I have said it on this forum a few times and i will say it again. The LibDems have a real priblem when attempting to fight labour held seats. Their heart isnt really in it. Their supporters are massively up for tge fight vs the Tories but not vs Labour. Combine that with the brand toxicity that the coslition wrought upon them and you can see why a topple labour strategy doesnt work for them. This is a real problem for the LDs and they need to get their heads around it quickly to turn the situation around.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,746
    edited March 2017

    Ahead of the meeting with Sturgeon, May will set out her "Plan for Britain" in an address at the Department for International Development (DFID) in East Kilbride.

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/may-prepares-hail-union-unstoppable-force-ahead-sturgeon-meeting-1613820

    I wonder how many DFID employees would keep their jobs in an Independent Scotland....

    More or fewer than HMRC employees in a dependent Scotland?

    'East Kilbride tax offices will face future job losses and leave the town in next decade

    HMRC will close most of its existing offices in Scotland, including the Plaza Tower, which has 1000 staff, by 2020-21, with the Centre 1 building closing by 2026.

    Uncertainty remains over the number of job losses, but with a 3000-strong workforce in East Kilbride, Bob Farmer, PCS union president for East Kilbride Revenue and Customs branch, said there is "no question" redundancies are ahead.
    He told the News: "There is a combination of relief among staff in the short term as there wasn't the nuclear option of the building closing right away, but certainly lots of questions remain for staff.
    "Our local concerns are about the long term future of jobs.
    "The impact of the town losing 3000 jobs will be huge."'

    http://tinyurl.com/mzeqcf4
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543

    Jonathan said:

    The coalition is the greatest misstep in British politics.

    Brough Tories off life support, trashed LD brand, destroyed 30 years of ld gains and made Brexit possible.

    The coalition will be looked back on as the most stable and best period of government post-war, especially given the context of the financial crash.

    I remember on here how people kept on predicting it would last only a month; a few months; a year: instead the common sense and practicality of the main players meant it lasted an entire term.
    I'm sure Cameron and Osborne wish in hindsight it continued. The bigger party undermined the smaller one, which is to be expected. But it maybe wasn't to their ultimate advantage.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    It is remarkable given our demographics and constituency-based system that the only rabble-rousing spokesman for what one might call the more radical end of Muslim politics that British politics has managed to throw up is a middle-aged white has-been like Galloway.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,746
    kle4 said:

    Another date on the sellout Smaygol 'Preshuss, preshuss Union' tour - Good morning East Kilbride!

    'A triumph!' - all PB Brexityoons.
    I seem to recall being chided by you for reacting to what I predicted others woukd say before they actually said it.
    Yeah, that's a literal prediction of what the Brexityoons will say.

    Don't let it fester. If you could be a bit lighter on your feet you might get away unchided.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    timmo said:

    I have said it on this forum a few times and i will say it again. The LibDems have a real priblem when attempting to fight labour held seats. Their heart isnt really in it. Their supporters are massively up for tge fight vs the Tories but not vs Labour. Combine that with the brand toxicity that the coslition wrought upon them and you can see why a topple labour strategy doesnt work for them. This is a real problem for the LDs and they need to get their heads around it quickly to turn the situation around.

    So why aren't the Conservatives, who are now apparently the Party of the working man and woman (and indeed the Party for almost anyone and everyone else) mounting a challenge ?

    Once again, the talk is all about the LDs - where are the Conservatives ? Having won Copeland and polled well in Stoke, why aren't the Conservatives challenging hard in Gorton or haven't they yet "turned up the volume" there ?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Mr. Herdson, sadly, I think it's likelier Rudd's dumb as a post.

    In a battle between Amber Rudd and mathematics the winner is obvious.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    FF43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The coalition is the greatest misstep in British politics.

    Brough Tories off life support, trashed LD brand, destroyed 30 years of ld gains and made Brexit possible.

    The coalition will be looked back on as the most stable and best period of government post-war, especially given the context of the financial crash.

    I remember on here how people kept on predicting it would last only a month; a few months; a year: instead the common sense and practicality of the main players meant it lasted an entire term.
    I'm sure Cameron and Osborne wish in hindsight it continued. The bigger party undermined the smaller one, which is to be expected. But it maybe wasn't to their ultimate advantage.
    Surely that was Cammo's plan, but he overshot? Overestimating Milliband was perhaps the beginning of his downfall.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited March 2017
    FF43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The coalition is the greatest misstep in British politics.

    Brough Tories off life support, trashed LD brand, destroyed 30 years of ld gains and made Brexit possible.

    The coalition will be looked back on as the most stable and best period of government post-war, especially given the context of the financial crash.

    I remember on here how people kept on predicting it would last only a month; a few months; a year: instead the common sense and practicality of the main players meant it lasted an entire term.
    I'm sure Cameron and Osborne wish in hindsight it continued. The bigger party undermined the smaller one, which is to be expected. But it maybe wasn't to their ultimate advantage.
    Winning a Tory majority ended both Cameron and Osborne's political careers just over a year later, the main beneficiaries were Boris Johnson and Theresa May, had the election result led to another Tory and LD coalition there would have been no EU referendum and both Cameron and Osborne would still be in post
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    stodge said:

    timmo said:

    I have said it on this forum a few times and i will say it again. The LibDems have a real priblem when attempting to fight labour held seats. Their heart isnt really in it. Their supporters are massively up for tge fight vs the Tories but not vs Labour. Combine that with the brand toxicity that the coslition wrought upon them and you can see why a topple labour strategy doesnt work for them. This is a real problem for the LDs and they need to get their heads around it quickly to turn the situation around.

    So why aren't the Conservatives, who are now apparently the Party of the working man and woman (and indeed the Party for almost anyone and everyone else) mounting a challenge ?

    Once again, the talk is all about the LDs - where are the Conservatives ? Having won Copeland and polled well in Stoke, why aren't the Conservatives challenging hard in Gorton or haven't they yet "turned up the volume" there ?
    Because in places such as Manchester and Liverpool the Tories are even more toxic than the LDs thats why.
    In other parts of the country that is not the case.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited March 2017
    Erdogan to hold referendum on Turkish EU accession https://mobile.twitter.com/DianeJamesMEP/status/846264480866676739
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    IanB2 said:

    Essexit said:

    On the LDs, they could've got away with being in Coalition if they hadn't u-turned on their flagship policy within months and had negotiated for something better than a referendum on a voting system they didn't want.

    Easy to say. Early in the coalition the LibDems did invest a bit of time looking around the world for lessons from junior coalition situations that had turned out well. The problem is that there really aren't any.
    They were screwed whatever they did in 2010. Had they sided with Labour the media would have crucified them. As it was it seems that Clegg kept his word and attempted to work with the party with biggest voteshare and most seats. Its a shame some of his Mps weren't more supportive during the parliament.
    Ultimately the weakness of Labour, fear of the SNP and the relative popularity/acceptability of Cameron in Lib Dem seats in England would have done for them in 2015 whatever.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Interesting but pointless thread header. Every political party is formed in order to gain power and influence society (in fact it is something that the LDs could teach Lab). That is what happened in 2010; political power was on offer and the LDs took it. Imagine if they had said that, as no party sufficiently reflected their political aims, they would sit this one out and work towards an overall majority in 2014/5. They would, rightly, have been flayed alive by LD supporters and others.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited March 2017
    Roger said:

    Another date on the sellout Smaygol 'Preshuss, preshuss Union' tour - Good morning East Kilbride!

    'A triumph!' - all PB Brexityoons.
    What's all this sticking flags up behind them all about? Something a bit too American and not quite wholesome for my taste.
    Ms Sturgeon's taste in flags has varied - often its the Saltire with the visitor's home flag:

    http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/1/590x/secondary/Edinburgh-688294.jpg

    - or the Saltire with the EU flag:

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/resources/images/5209264.jpg?display=1&htype=0&type=responsive-gallery

    (Though that's gone out of fashion a bit) - there was some commentary at the time that for May's visit Sturgeon didn't have the Union flag.....it all seems a little childish - lets see what today brings.....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited March 2017
    Deleted
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Ahead of the meeting with Sturgeon, May will set out her "Plan for Britain" in an address at the Department for International Development (DFID) in East Kilbride.

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/may-prepares-hail-union-unstoppable-force-ahead-sturgeon-meeting-1613820

    I wonder how many DFID employees would keep their jobs in an Independent Scotland....

    More or fewer than HMRC employees in a dependent Scotland?

    'East Kilbride tax offices will face future job losses and leave the town in next decade

    HMRC will close most of its existing offices in Scotland, including the Plaza Tower, which has 1000 staff, by 2020-21, with the Centre 1 building closing by 2026.

    Uncertainty remains over the number of job losses, but with a 3000-strong workforce in East Kilbride, Bob Farmer, PCS union president for East Kilbride Revenue and Customs branch, said there is "no question" redundancies are ahead.
    He told the News: "There is a combination of relief among staff in the short term as there wasn't the nuclear option of the building closing right away, but certainly lots of questions remain for staff.
    "Our local concerns are about the long term future of jobs.
    "The impact of the town losing 3000 jobs will be huge."'

    http://tinyurl.com/mzeqcf4
    It cannot shut Carlotta up. She is the Alt-May Queen. May can do no wrong according to her.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    stodge said:

    timmo said:

    I have said it on this forum a few times and i will say it again. The LibDems have a real priblem when attempting to fight labour held seats. Their heart isnt really in it. Their supporters are massively up for tge fight vs the Tories but not vs Labour. Combine that with the brand toxicity that the coslition wrought upon them and you can see why a topple labour strategy doesnt work for them. This is a real problem for the LDs and they need to get their heads around it quickly to turn the situation around.

    So why aren't the Conservatives, who are now apparently the Party of the working man and woman (and indeed the Party for almost anyone and everyone else) mounting a challenge ?

    Once again, the talk is all about the LDs - where are the Conservatives ? Having won Copeland and polled well in Stoke, why aren't the Conservatives challenging hard in Gorton or haven't they yet "turned up the volume" there ?
    As they came third behind the Greens in 2015 on a night they won a majority nationally, if the Tories won Gorton you May as well declare May Supreme Leader and PM for life!
  • I think the two big lessons of the coalition were:
    1. The junior partner should have whole ministries for itself rather than being subsumed into a larger whole. They then become distinct and accountable in their own areas. And they don't become quite so politically attached to their senior partner.
    2. Don't badmouth your own government or seek to be an opposition in power. Maybe 1 above solves this too.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited March 2017

    Ahead of the meeting with Sturgeon, May will set out her "Plan for Britain" in an address at the Department for International Development (DFID) in East Kilbride.

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/may-prepares-hail-union-unstoppable-force-ahead-sturgeon-meeting-1613820

    I wonder how many DFID employees would keep their jobs in an Independent Scotland....

    More or fewer than HMRC employees in a dependent Scotland?

    'East Kilbride tax offices will face future job losses and leave the town in next decade

    HMRC will close most of its existing offices in Scotland, including the Plaza Tower, which has 1000 staff, by 2020-21, with the Centre 1 building closing by 2026.

    Uncertainty remains over the number of job losses, but with a 3000-strong workforce in East Kilbride, Bob Farmer, PCS union president for East Kilbride Revenue and Customs branch, said there is "no question" redundancies are ahead.
    He told the News: "There is a combination of relief among staff in the short term as there wasn't the nuclear option of the building closing right away, but certainly lots of questions remain for staff.
    "Our local concerns are about the long term future of jobs.
    "The impact of the town losing 3000 jobs will be huge."'

    http://tinyurl.com/mzeqcf4
    Curiously enough, you missed a bit:

    The final restructuring will see around 12 per cent of the HMRC staff total based in Scotland.
    Lin Homer, HMRC’s chief executive, said: “The new regional centres in Glasgow and Edinburgh will bring our staff together in more modern and cost-effective buildings in areas with lower rents


    And how many jobs would they have in Sindy?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    timmo said:


    Because in places such as Manchester and Liverpool the Tories are even more toxic than the LDs thats why.
    In other parts of the country that is not the case.

    To provide a more serious answer to your previous slightly cheap jibe, I can assure you that where LD activists are in Labour areas such as East London, they are very keen to take the fight to the party which dominates local politics.

    The truth is geographically and perhaps historically, there are more Conservative areas and that has tended to be where the areas of LD activity have been and where therefore the Party, in times of recovery, has started to make progress. There's also the not unreasonable premise that as there are more Conservative voters than Labour ones, there is a potentially larger pool of disillusioned Conservative voters when that party is in Government.

    You may find this hard to believe as a Conservative activist but not everybody likes or supports a Conservative Government and some of those who did at the preceding GE come to have doubts about their choice once they see the Government in action. The pool of the disillusioned and discontent may also be larger at local level (where protesting against the Government is seen not to have a wider impact) than at national level.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Stagecoach has lost the South West Trains Franchise:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-39403162
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited March 2017
    midwinter said:

    IanB2 said:

    Essexit said:

    On the LDs, they could've got away with being in Coalition if they hadn't u-turned on their flagship policy within months and had negotiated for something better than a referendum on a voting system they didn't want.

    Easy to say. Early in the coalition the LibDems did invest a bit of time looking around the world for lessons from junior coalition situations that had turned out well. The problem is that there really aren't any.
    They were screwed whatever they did in 2010. Had they sided with Labour the media would have crucified them. As it was it seems that Clegg kept his word and attempted to work with the party with biggest voteshare and most seats. Its a shame some of his Mps weren't more supportive during the parliament.
    Ultimately the weakness of Labour, fear of the SNP and the relative popularity/acceptability of Cameron in Lib Dem seats in England would have done for them in 2015 whatever.
    I think the biggest, but entirely understandable mistake (given that it was the MPs jobs on the line) was not going for STV for local elections, as already implemented in Scotland, AV was a dead end that would have done the LibDems no favours in 2015 even if they had miraculously carried the referendum. The Tories were never going to allow even a sniff of real PR for Wesminster. Whereas PR for local government was, IMO, achievable - at national level the Tories don't really give a toss about local government and indeed would probably have enjoyed forcing yet more cuts down to local level.

    In the longer term PR for local government would have allowed the LibDems to build up a stronger base across the country, in time allowing them to get in contention in a greater range of FPTnP parliamentary seats.
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