Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the trend in today’s London poll was replicated in Manchest

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the trend in today’s London poll was replicated in Manchester Gorton then LAB might struggle

Today’s main polling news has been a London poll by YouGov for Queen Mary University where Professor Phil Cowley is one of the leading politics dons. He created the above charts. The main figures with changes on April last year were:-

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited March 2017
    I'm calling it now, if Corbyn leads Labour at the general election the result will be closer to 1931 than 1983.
  • Would love to see Cat Smith's spin were Labour to lose Gorton.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2017
    French scientist who predicted Trump's win says Marine Le Pen will win the presidential election
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4365116/amp/Scientist-predicts-Marine-Le-Pen-win-French-election.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Would love to see Cat Smith's spin were Labour to lose Gorton.

    It would be a triumph, no doubt.

    If Labour don't have at least a 10% majority I'll eat my hat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    HYUFD said:

    French scientist who predicted Trump's win says Marine Le Pen will win the presidential election
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4365116/amp/Scientist-predicts-Marine-Le-Pen-win-French-election.html

    I was amazed at the poll last thread that showed 30% of Filon voters would go to Le Pen in the second round
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    ‪Theresa May's a bit crap ain't she?‬

    https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror/status/847857142765899776

    Twits like you would have accused her of being provocative, or maybe "bullying", or that she had clumsily and pointlessly annoyed Spain, if she HAD mentioned it.

    Really, there's no pleasing a Remoaner, so, understandably, we have all decided to ignore you.
    But Brexit supporting chaps like you said getting a Brexit deal was easy, I'm just trying to help.
    You are trying to be as provocative as possible.
    No, some of us are dealing with the reality of Brexit, not the fantasy world of having cake and eating of Leavers,
    No, you're indulging in a bit of wishful thinking.
    After Tusk's reasonable Guidelines there's been quite a lot of flailing from people who've long claimed that there could be no negotiation on trade terms until AFTER we left the EU....
    Yes, if you actually read the guidelines, they are much more emollient than the headlines imply (unsurprisingly). The EU wants and expects a reasonable deal. The questions is whether emotions interfere, on either side.
    Has made me a bit more confident that we'll get an amicable deal in the end.
    If anything fucks this up, it is likely to be the British media, on both sides. The Remoaner press and BBC will shriek in outrage at everything we do, chucking spanners in the machinery, and the sceptic tabloids will do their best to insult our European pals at every opportunity.

    If only we could close down all our TV stations and newspapers for the next two years - on left and right.
    One would hope those involved in governance on both sides would not be ruled by the press over such delicate matters...but we know how likely that is.

    That said, maybe it could be useful - the shrieking of the press and whining backbenchers on both sides could potentially be used to demonstrate how much wiggle room they have, and thus nudge the other party to be more accommodating. But that's a long shot.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    It would be useful to see how Labour is polling among Muslims, before betting on Gorton.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    IIRC Gorton is Labour's eighth safest seat in the whole country. That we're even contemplating the possibility that they could lose it must be unprecedented in modern political history, in England at least. I mean, I know there were gargantuan swings from Con to LD in several celebrated by-elections in the mid-90s, but the Tories were, of course, a very long serving and jaded Government, not the main Opposition.

    Labour's position isn't so parlous as for us to expect that they would lose seats this safe in a General Election, but by-elections are a very different beast, of course. And if the yellows can pull this one out of their magic hat, Richmond Park would surely pale in comparison?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Much as I long for Labour's demise, I'm unconvinced by the pathetic LDs as the instrument of execution. Something else must arise.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711

    IIRC Gorton is Labour's eighth safest seat in the whole country. That we're even contemplating the possibility that they could lose it must be unprecedented in modern political history, in England at least. I mean, I know there were gargantuan swings from Con to LD in several celebrated by-elections in the mid-90s, but the Tories were, of course, a very long serving and jaded Government, not the main Opposition.

    Labour's position isn't so parlous as for us to expect that they would lose seats this safe in a General Election, but by-elections are a very different beast, of course. And if the yellows can pull this one out of their magic hat, Richmond Park would surely pale in comparison?

    Galloway is the joker in the pack thats gives the yellows a chance.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.
  • I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    On those numbers, the Lib Dems would regain Southwark and Bermondsey and perhaps Hornsey & Wood Green and challenge in Islington South.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    I know its only subsamples but the poll shows doing much worse among middle class Londoners than working class Londoners.

    Whereas the pattern in national polls suggests that Labour's doing badly nationally among working class voters.

    Now if Labour is losing middle class voters in the urban areas but working class voters in the industrial areas that might be an optimum pain scenario for Labour.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Google Maps, your phone, right now.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017
    Gorton:

    2010: Lab 50 LD 33
    2015: Lab 67 LD 4

    Labour won by 17 at peak-Clegg. The London poll has the LDs well adrift of where they were at peak-Clegg.

    Corbyn can't lose this one, surely? Labour held Stoke which was far more contestable.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    BudG said:

    IIRC Gorton is Labour's eighth safest seat in the whole country. That we're even contemplating the possibility that they could lose it must be unprecedented in modern political history, in England at least. I mean, I know there were gargantuan swings from Con to LD in several celebrated by-elections in the mid-90s, but the Tories were, of course, a very long serving and jaded Government, not the main Opposition.

    Labour's position isn't so parlous as for us to expect that they would lose seats this safe in a General Election, but by-elections are a very different beast, of course. And if the yellows can pull this one out of their magic hat, Richmond Park would surely pale in comparison?

    Galloway is the joker in the pack thats gives the yellows a chance.
    Pretty sure I read on here that the Lib Dems were great value in Stoke at the start of the campaign there. That turned out to be nonsense and I imagine this is too.
    Labour held that comfortably despite a dire candidate and this will go the same way. Quite likely Galloway and Lib Dems will split the protest vote anyway. 1.2 seems an insanely good price for Labour to hold. In a general election you wouldn't be able to back them at 1.01. Can't see they're 20 times less likely to win now.
  • Alistair said:

    Google Maps, your phone, right now.

    Pacman!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    Alistair said:

    Google Maps, your phone, right now.

    That's brilliant!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited March 2017
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:


    But Brexit supporting chaps like you said getting a Brexit deal was easy, I'm just trying to help.

    You are trying to be as provocative as possible.
    No, some of us are dealing with the reality of Brexit, not the fantasy world of having cake and eating of Leavers,
    No, you're indulging in a bit of wishful thinking.
    After Tusk's reasonable Guidelines there's been quite a lot of flailing from people who've long claimed that there could be no negotiation on trade terms until AFTER we left the EU....
    Yes, if you actually read the guidelines, they are much more emollient than the headlines imply (unsurprisingly). The EU wants and expects a reasonable deal. The questions is whether emotions interfere, on either side.
    Has made me a bit more confident that we'll get an amicable deal in the end.
    If anything fucks this up, it is likely to be the British media, on both sides. The Remoaner press and BBC will shriek in outrage at everything we do, chucking spanners in the machinery, and the sceptic tabloids will do their best to insult our European pals at every opportunity.

    If only we could close down all our TV stations and newspapers for the next two years - on left and right.
    One would hope those involved in governance on both sides would not be ruled by the press over such delicate matters...but we know how likely that is.

    That said, maybe it could be useful - the shrieking of the press and whining backbenchers on both sides could potentially be used to demonstrate how much wiggle room they have, and thus nudge the other party to be more accommodating. But that's a long shot.
    Thinking of rough possible scenarios:

    Successful negotiation, Britain prospers
    Successful negotiation, Britain struggles
    Hostile negotiation, Britain prospers
    Hostile negotiation, Britain struggles

    (Not these outcomes are dependent upon public perception as much as reality)

    The only scenario where I can see any support for re-joining the EU is the second ie if the EU is seen to be co-operative and Brexit is subsequently seen as a failure.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Google Maps, your phone, right now.

    Pacman!
    Ms Pacman you heathen.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited March 2017
    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    This will be as easy for Labour as Stoke. Anything else is a delusion worthy of betting against.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Note the complete lack of outrage about the use of the people of Gibraltar as a bargaining chip by the EU.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Google Maps, your phone, right now.

    Pacman!
    Ms Pacman you heathen.
    Probably have to say PaxMx.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Gorton:

    2010: Lab 50 LD 33
    2015: Lab 67 LD 4

    Labour won by 17 at peak-Clegg. The London poll has the LDs well adrift of where they were at peak-Clegg.

    Corbyn can't lose this one, surely? Labour held Stoke which was far more contestable.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    The important point is that most of the voters in Scotland, NI, and Gibraltar wish to remain British. And while there are bound to be problems, I'd say they're far less serious than were predicted before 23rd June.
  • PierrePierre Posts: 8
    edited March 2017
    I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

    GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.

    Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    chestnut said:

    Gorton:

    2010: Lab 50 LD 33
    2015: Lab 67 LD 4

    Labour won by 17 at peak-Clegg. The London poll has the LDs well adrift of where they were at peak-Clegg.

    Corbyn can't lose this one, surely? Labour held Stoke which was far more contestable.

    By elections sometimes produce extreme results. Looking at General Election results won't tell you much.
    Also in Stoke UKIP were the challengers and they have a less than inspiring record, leaving aside defections.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Note the complete lack of outrage about the use of the people of Gibraltar as a bargaining chip by the EU.
    I said this yesterday, if the roles were reversed on security, the referendum losers would be blaming Brexit. These are the kind of people who tip up 3 7/4 shots in the same race then feel shrewd and boast when one wins.

    Always remember, the only reason they're trolling is because they got the referendum so wrong and are doubling down
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Today's London poll is actually showing a tiny swing of 0.5% from Con To Lab compared with 2010. The swing to Labour there from the LibDems since that year is significantly bigger.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    French scientist who predicted Trump's win says Marine Le Pen will win the presidential election
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4365116/amp/Scientist-predicts-Marine-Le-Pen-win-French-election.html

    I was amazed at the poll last thread that showed 30% of Filon voters would go to Le Pen in the second round
    If Le Pen wins a majority of Fillon voters, a third of Melenchon voters and most Dupont Aignan voters in the runoff she wins the presidency
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    But we've had the same 'underwhelming non-entities' representing Britain in EU negotiations while we are in it.

    That's why Britain kept losing in the EU.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    French scientist who predicted Trump's win says Marine Le Pen will win the presidential election
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4365116/amp/Scientist-predicts-Marine-Le-Pen-win-French-election.html

    I was amazed at the poll last thread that showed 30% of Filon voters would go to Le Pen in the second round
    What would the other 70% do?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Pierre said:

    I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

    GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.

    Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...

    Welcome but I think GG will lose his deposit, again.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sean_F said:

    On those numbers, the Lib Dems would regain Southwark and Bermondsey and perhaps Hornsey & Wood Green and challenge in Islington South.

    I doubt that they would even win Southwark & Bermondsey where the Labour MP will enjoy first time incumbency.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Note the complete lack of outrage about the use of the people of Gibraltar as a bargaining chip by the EU.
    I said this yesterday, if the roles were reversed on security, the referendum losers would be blaming Brexit. These are the kind of people who tip up 3 7/4 shots in the same race then feel shrewd and boast when one wins.

    Always remember, the only reason they're trolling is because they got the referendum so wrong and are doubling down
    You may have said it, but it doesn't make you right.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited March 2017
    Mods

    I've just had a warning that a spam block was activated because I had apparently posed 5 comments within 60 seconds.

    Which I hadn't.

    Would you let me know if some problem is happening.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Note the complete lack of outrage about the use of the people of Gibraltar as a bargaining chip by the EU.
    “no agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without the agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom”.

    Difficult to see what the Spaniards hope to gain here. Excluding Gibraltar from a FTA?

    It looks like desperate stuff from them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Mods

    I've just had a warning that a spam block was activated because I had apparently posed 5 comments within 60 seconds.

    Which I hadn't.

    Would you let me know is some problem is happening.

    I got the same thing, so I don't think it is just you.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    On those numbers, the Lib Dems would regain Southwark and Bermondsey and perhaps Hornsey & Wood Green and challenge in Islington South.

    I doubt that they would even win Southwark & Bermondsey where the Labour MP will enjoy first time incumbency.
    Yes, Labour's advantage over the yellows in Southwark is a good deal greater than that of the Tories in some of the West London seats they snatched last time, e.g. Twickenham.

    The Lib Dems have finite resources and would probably be best served concentrating on more realistic targets at a GE.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Sean_F said:

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    The important point is that most of the voters in Scotland, NI, and Gibraltar wish to remain British. And while there are bound to be problems, I'd say they're far less serious than were predicted before 23rd June.
    The big reduction in the current account deficit was the best bit of economic data for ages.

    Hopefully the savings rate will increase which will put further downward pressure on the current account deficit (as well as being a good thing in its own right).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    justin124 said:

    Today's London poll is actually showing a tiny swing of 0.5% from Con To Lab compared with 2010. The swing to Labour there from the LibDems since that year is significantly bigger.

    Peak JustinShortStraws!
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited March 2017

    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Note the complete lack of outrage about the use of the people of Gibraltar as a bargaining chip by the EU.
    I said this yesterday, if the roles were reversed on security, the referendum losers would be blaming Brexit. These are the kind of people who tip up 3 7/4 shots in the same race then feel shrewd and boast when one wins.

    Always remember, the only reason they're trolling is because they got the referendum so wrong and are doubling down
    You may have said it, but it doesn't make you right.
    So what?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Pierre said:

    I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

    GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.

    Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...

    I suppose we can look forward to valuable input from Jacques, Yves, Francois, and Etienne over the coming days.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I'm calling it now, if Corbyn leads Labour at the general election the result will be closer to 1931 than 1983.

    You can't. You already said that this morning
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    Gibraltar is no more a problem now than it was a year ago or 5 years ago. The Spanish are always going on about it being theirs and trying various ways to try and make life difficult for both the UK and the people of Gibraltar. The answer is always very simple. We say no. That will be the same now as it was every time before and the result will be the same. Spain will sulk and things will continue as they did before.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017
    The Gibraltar clause seems to say to Gibraltans," look, the UK and Spain are the big boys, it's our decision. No automatic EU/UK deal for you without our permission."

    I wonder if that's meant for consumption in regions elsewhere in both the UK and Spain?
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    Gorton is a very oddly shaped constituency, with demographics that vary considerably across its 7 component wards. Gorton itself is in the east of the constituency and comprises 2 wards; it is predominantly WWC. Longsight and Rusholme include substantial Muslim communities. Rusholme includes the university and main teaching hospital, with lots of students and young folk living there and in Fallowfield. Whalley Range has a substantial Afro-Caribbean community. Levenshulme is an older suburban area.

    It is difficult to predict how each of the different areas might vote, but I would be shocked if the LDs win, as only certain segments of the population are likely to support them. Only Rusholme and Fallowfield wards have similarities with the Withington constituency, which was LD-held from 2005-2015.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    In case it hasn't already been mentioned, someone has done a Sol Campbell in the Boat Race:

    http://theboatraces.org/compare-mens-blue-boat/2017/bow
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    daodao said:

    Gorton is a very oddly shaped constituency, with demographics that vary considerably across its 7 component wards. Gorton itself is in the east of the constituency and comprises 2 wards; it is predominantly WWC. Longsight and Rusholme include substantial Muslim communities. Rusholme includes the university and main teaching hospital, with lots of students and young folk living there and in Fallowfield. Whalley Range has a substantial Afro-Caribbean community. Levenshulme is an older suburban area.

    It is difficult to predict how each of the different areas might vote, but I would be shocked if the LDs win, as only certain segments of the population are likely to support them. Only Rusholme and Fallowfield wards have similarities with the Withington constituency, which was LD-held from 2005-2015.

    It also contains relatively few ABC1's, which this poll shows Labour losing the most. None of these areas are particularly well off.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    French scientist who predicted Trump's win says Marine Le Pen will win the presidential election
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4365116/amp/Scientist-predicts-Marine-Le-Pen-win-French-election.html

    I was amazed at the poll last thread that showed 30% of Filon voters would go to Le Pen in the second round
    If Le Pen wins a majority of Fillon voters, a third of Melenchon voters and most Dupont Aignan voters in the runoff she wins the presidency
    Yes and if the sun rises in the west tomorrow...
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    Gibraltar is no more a problem now than it was a year ago or 5 years ago. The Spanish are always going on about it being theirs and trying various ways to try and make life difficult for both the UK and the people of Gibraltar. The answer is always very simple. We say no. That will be the same now as it was every time before and the result will be the same. Spain will sulk and things will continue as they did before.
    Yep
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited March 2017

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    Gibraltar is no more a problem now than it was a year ago or 5 years ago. The Spanish are always going on about it being theirs and trying various ways to try and make life difficult for both the UK and the people of Gibraltar. The answer is always very simple. We say no. That will be the same now as it was every time before and the result will be the same. Spain will sulk and things will continue as they did before.
    Not exactly the same. 96% of them want to stay in the EU. three four and five years ago that's where they were. Wait till other regions in the UK start seeing the writing on the wall and realize there are better alternatives to Westminster.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2017

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    French scientist who predicted Trump's win says Marine Le Pen will win the presidential election
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4365116/amp/Scientist-predicts-Marine-Le-Pen-win-French-election.html

    I was amazed at the poll last thread that showed 30% of Filon voters would go to Le Pen in the second round
    If Le Pen wins a majority of Fillon voters, a third of Melenchon voters and most Dupont Aignan voters in the runoff she wins the presidency
    Yes and if the sun rises in the west tomorrow...
    Against Macron in the runoff Le Pen becomes the conservative candidate by default and with Valls having endorsed Macron he would be the default socialist candidate, of course he is favourite but I would not rule anything out. According to today's IFOP in a runoff against Macron Le Pen gets 30% of Fillon voters with 35% undecided, 41% of Melenchon voters and 31% of Hamon voters are also undecided in the same scenario

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_31-03-2017.pdf
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    tlg86 said:

    In case it hasn't already been mentioned, someone has done a Sol Campbell in the Boat Race:

    http://theboatraces.org/compare-mens-blue-boat/2017/bow

    Done a Sol Campbell?

    Anyway, that's a great site thanks. Although why are those lions, those kings amongst men, citizens of the world's greatest city, wearing light green instead of light blue? ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    chestnut said:

    Gorton:

    2010: Lab 50 LD 33
    2015: Lab 67 LD 4

    Labour won by 17 at peak-Clegg. The London poll has the LDs well adrift of where they were at peak-Clegg.

    Corbyn can't lose this one, surely?

    No he cannot.

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    Gibraltar is no more a problem now than it was a year ago or 5 years ago. The Spanish are always going on about it being theirs and trying various ways to try and make life difficult for both the UK and the people of Gibraltar. The answer is always very simple. We say no. That will be the same now as it was every time before and the result will be the same. Spain will sulk and things will continue as they did before.
    More to the point, EU solidarity only goes so far - what cost would the rest of them be willing to pay to indulge a single member by being obstructive on this issue, an issue which the spanish have no legal claim and no moral claim either?

    In purely pragmatic terms the idea they would go to bat for Spain to the point of forcing us to take a hit on this issue, an issue politically impossible for us to bend on, is simply not the EU I recognise, with its love of fudged solutions and conflict avoidance.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Before the usual Yougov Lib Dem down weighting the raw data for this London poll had the Lib Dems at 16%
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    chestnut said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Note the complete lack of outrage about the use of the people of Gibraltar as a bargaining chip by the EU.
    “no agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without the agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom”.

    Difficult to see what the Spaniards hope to gain here. Excluding Gibraltar from a FTA?

    It looks like desperate stuff from them.
    And pointless since it is counter to the treaty conditions. The Brexit negotiations will be decided by QMV. If Spain is alone then she loses.

    As an aside, it seems to me the EU are slowly coming to realise they have made a fundamental error with their approach to the Brexit negotiations.

    All the arguments in the UK have been around how terrible it would be for trade if we did not get an agreement at the end of the two years. Now if the EU got their way as they originally planned and trade were excluded from the two year period and it only concentrated on the issues of Brexit and not on the subsequent trade deal, then there is absolutely no fear for the UK in the talks failing. All that happens is that the UK leaves.

    Obviously this will make the subsequent trade talks somewhat fraught but since we would only have taken this option if the EU were making unacceptable demands that would already have been the case. Separating the issues of Brexit from the trade talks actually helps the UK as on the issues of Brexit (excluding trade) there really isn't anything the EU can threaten us with.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017
    chestnut said:

    The Gibraltar clause seems to say to Gibraltans," look, the UK and Spain are the big boys, it's our decision. No automatic EU/UK deal for you without our permission."

    I wonder if that's meant for consumption in regions elsewhere in both the UK and Spain?

    Additionally, the EU have signalled that they will stand aside and not engage in a matter of sovereignty/territory/independence.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    tlg86 said:

    In case it hasn't already been mentioned, someone has done a Sol Campbell in the Boat Race:

    http://theboatraces.org/compare-mens-blue-boat/2017/bow

    Oxford average age = 26

    When Hugh Laurie took part he was only 20 and every single rower in that year was lighter than the average for this year:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boat_Race_1980
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Pierre said:

    I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

    GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.

    Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...

    You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Roger said:

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    Gibraltar is no more a problem now than it was a year ago or 5 years ago. The Spanish are always going on about it being theirs and trying various ways to try and make life difficult for both the UK and the people of Gibraltar. The answer is always very simple. We say no. That will be the same now as it was every time before and the result will be the same. Spain will sulk and things will continue as they did before.
    Not exactly the same. 96% of them want to stay in the EU. three four and five years ago that's where they were. Wait till other regions in the UK start seeing the writing on the wall and realize there are better alternatives to Westminster.
    96% of them did not want the UK to leave the EU. That is very different from saying that 96% of them want to leave the UK and join Spain. I am afraid you are showing your ignorance and wishful thinking again.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Never watched this rubbish myself, but I gather some on here are fans

    https://twitter.com/gaytimesmag/status/847873672950013957
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Roger said:

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    Gibraltar is no more a problem now than it was a year ago or 5 years ago. The Spanish are always going on about it being theirs and trying various ways to try and make life difficult for both the UK and the people of Gibraltar. The answer is always very simple. We say no. That will be the same now as it was every time before and the result will be the same. Spain will sulk and things will continue as they did before.
    Not exactly the same. 96% of them want to stay in the EU. three four and five years ago that's where they were. Wait till other regions in the UK start seeing the writing on the wall and realize there are better alternatives to Westminster.
    That assumes those regions all put the EU before the UK
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Roger said:

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    Gibraltar is no more a problem now than it was a year ago or 5 years ago. The Spanish are always going on about it being theirs and trying various ways to try and make life difficult for both the UK and the people of Gibraltar. The answer is always very simple. We say no. That will be the same now as it was every time before and the result will be the same. Spain will sulk and things will continue as they did before.
    Not exactly the same. 96% of them want to stay in the EU. three four and five years ago that's where they were. Wait till other regions in the UK start seeing the writing on the wall and realize there are better alternatives to Westminster.
    96% of them did not want the UK to leave the EU. That is very different from saying that 96% of them want to leave the UK and join Spain.
    Well exactly. For christ's sake, we all know there are Leavers painting an overly sunny picture of the future, but seeing cataclysm in every single word or omen is staggeringly unlikely to be correct, even if we take the view events will be closer to cataclysm than eucatastrophe.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Roger said:

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    Gibraltar is no more a problem now than it was a year ago or 5 years ago. The Spanish are always going on about it being theirs and trying various ways to try and make life difficult for both the UK and the people of Gibraltar. The answer is always very simple. We say no. That will be the same now as it was every time before and the result will be the same. Spain will sulk and things will continue as they did before.
    Not exactly the same. 96% of them want to stay in the EU. three four and five years ago that's where they were. Wait till other regions in the UK start seeing the writing on the wall and realize there are better alternatives to Westminster.
    99% of them wanted to stay w the UK last time they were asked
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    Gibraltar is no more a problem now than it was a year ago or 5 years ago. The Spanish are always going on about it being theirs and trying various ways to try and make life difficult for both the UK and the people of Gibraltar. The answer is always very simple. We say no. That will be the same now as it was every time before and the result will be the same. Spain will sulk and things will continue as they did before.
    Agree.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    In case it hasn't already been mentioned, someone has done a Sol Campbell in the Boat Race:

    http://theboatraces.org/compare-mens-blue-boat/2017/bow

    Done a Sol Campbell?

    Anyway, that's a great site thanks. Although why are those lions, those kings amongst men, citizens of the world's greatest city, wearing light green instead of light blue? ;)
    William Warr - the Oxford Bow - rowed for the scum Cambridge in 2015. Apparently he switched to Oxford to do a DPhil before the 2020 Olympics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    Gibraltar is no more a problem now than it was a year ago or 5 years ago. The Spanish are always going on about it being theirs and trying various ways to try and make life difficult for both the UK and the people of Gibraltar. The answer is always very simple. We say no. That will be the same now as it was every time before and the result will be the same. Spain will sulk and things will continue as they did before.
    Not exactly the same. 96% of them want to stay in the EU. three four and five years ago that's where they were. Wait till other regions in the UK start seeing the writing on the wall and realize there are better alternatives to Westminster.
    99% of them wanted to stay w the UK last time they were asked
    Margin of error stuff, it could be Leave now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    In case it hasn't already been mentioned, someone has done a Sol Campbell in the Boat Race:

    http://theboatraces.org/compare-mens-blue-boat/2017/bow

    Oxford average age = 26

    When Hugh Laurie took part he was only 20 and every single rower in that year was lighter than the average for this year:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boat_Race_1980
    Yes, it's quite sad really. A few years ago I seem to remember the (winning) Oxford crew looking like a fairly regular bunch of lads. But when you go through the crews (both male and female) this year they look massive.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    In case it hasn't already been mentioned, someone has done a Sol Campbell in the Boat Race:

    http://theboatraces.org/compare-mens-blue-boat/2017/bow

    Done a Sol Campbell?

    Anyway, that's a great site thanks. Although why are those lions, those kings amongst men, citizens of the world's greatest city, wearing light green instead of light blue? ;)
    William Warr - the Oxford Bow - rowed for the scum Cambridge in 2015. Apparently he switched to Oxford to do a DPhil before the 2020 Olympics.
    There is a word that gets used too much on PB. Overuse means that it loses its impact and becomes a bit of a non-word; a nonentity; a space-filler.

    But a light blue moving over to the dark side? Never has it been so deserved:

    TRAITOR!
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Roger said:

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    Gibraltar is no more a problem now than it was a year ago or 5 years ago. The Spanish are always going on about it being theirs and trying various ways to try and make life difficult for both the UK and the people of Gibraltar. The answer is always very simple. We say no. That will be the same now as it was every time before and the result will be the same. Spain will sulk and things will continue as they did before.
    Not exactly the same. 96% of them want to stay in the EU. three four and five years ago that's where they were. Wait till other regions in the UK start seeing the writing on the wall and realize there are better alternatives to Westminster.
    Like Wales that voted heavily to Remain ... oh wait.

    I just have an inkling that Gibraltar will prioritise being British ( or more precisely not Spanish) over the EU.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    In case it hasn't already been mentioned, someone has done a Sol Campbell in the Boat Race:

    http://theboatraces.org/compare-mens-blue-boat/2017/bow

    Done a Sol Campbell?

    Anyway, that's a great site thanks. Although why are those lions, those kings amongst men, citizens of the world's greatest city, wearing light green instead of light blue? ;)
    William Warr - the Oxford Bow - rowed for the scum Cambridge in 2015. Apparently he switched to Oxford to do a DPhil before the 2020 Olympics.
    There is a word that gets used too much on PB. Overuse means that it loses its impact and becomes a bit of a non-word; a nonentity; a space-filler.

    But a light blue moving over to the dark side? Never has it been so deserved:

    TRAITOR!
    Lol! Oh, it's not light blue, it's Eton Blue:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eton_blue
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    In case it hasn't already been mentioned, someone has done a Sol Campbell in the Boat Race:

    http://theboatraces.org/compare-mens-blue-boat/2017/bow

    Done a Sol Campbell?

    Anyway, that's a great site thanks. Although why are those lions, those kings amongst men, citizens of the world's greatest city, wearing light green instead of light blue? ;)
    William Warr - the Oxford Bow - rowed for the scum Cambridge in 2015. Apparently he switched to Oxford to do a DPhil before the 2020 Olympics.
    There is a word that gets used too much on PB. Overuse means that it loses its impact and becomes a bit of a non-word; a nonentity; a space-filler.

    But a light blue moving over to the dark side? Never has it been so deserved:

    TRAITOR!
    Lol! Oh, it's not light blue, it's Eton Blue:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eton_blue
    Trust Etonians to be colourblind. ;)

    I could swear the light blues have been a little more blue in the past. Or is that just a false memory?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    In case it hasn't already been mentioned, someone has done a Sol Campbell in the Boat Race:

    http://theboatraces.org/compare-mens-blue-boat/2017/bow

    Done a Sol Campbell?

    Anyway, that's a great site thanks. Although why are those lions, those kings amongst men, citizens of the world's greatest city, wearing light green instead of light blue? ;)
    William Warr - the Oxford Bow - rowed for the scum Cambridge in 2015. Apparently he switched to Oxford to do a DPhil before the 2020 Olympics.
    There is a word that gets used too much on PB. Overuse means that it loses its impact and becomes a bit of a non-word; a nonentity; a space-filler.

    But a light blue moving over to the dark side? Never has it been so deserved:

    TRAITOR!
    Lol! Oh, it's not light blue, it's Eton Blue:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eton_blue
    Trust Etonians to be colourblind. ;)

    I could swear the light blues have been a little more blue in the past. Or is that just a false memory?
    It's looked green ever since I was a child. I remember saying "that's not blue" when I first saw the boat race (circa 95).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Too late. The Daily Mailstas got there first
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    In case it hasn't already been mentioned, someone has done a Sol Campbell in the Boat Race:

    http://theboatraces.org/compare-mens-blue-boat/2017/bow

    Done a Sol Campbell?

    Anyway, that's a great site thanks. Although why are those lions, those kings amongst men, citizens of the world's greatest city, wearing light green instead of light blue? ;)
    William Warr - the Oxford Bow - rowed for the scum Cambridge in 2015. Apparently he switched to Oxford to do a DPhil before the 2020 Olympics.
    There is a word that gets used too much on PB. Overuse means that it loses its impact and becomes a bit of a non-word; a nonentity; a space-filler.

    But a light blue moving over to the dark side? Never has it been so deserved:

    TRAITOR!
    Lol! Oh, it's not light blue, it's Eton Blue:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eton_blue
    Trust Etonians to be colourblind. ;)

    I could swear the light blues have been a little more blue in the past. Or is that just a false memory?
    It's looked green ever since I was a child. I remember saying "that's not blue" when I first saw the boat race (circa 95).
    Hmmm. As I'm not colourblind, I guess I'm misremembering.

    Oddly, our family have no connections with either Cambridge or Oxford, yet we all always supported Cambridge. And that's where I've ended up. I'll have to ask my dad why he always chose them instead of the simpletons. ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    I've always supported Oxford - their shade of blue is superior.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    I don't know how Corbyn has the brass neck to stay as Labour leader. He was only nominated by Labour MPs for "charity". It is time he realised he has failed and resigns. A democracy needs an alternative government, not a useless backbencher.

    How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.

    The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.

    It's the first full day after Article 50 was triggered. To say it's failed already is your hope rather than anything concrete. It might well turn into a crock of shit, but it ain't there yet.
    I don't hope the UK negations fail. My point is all the problems identified with Brexit are slowly being realised. I don't have to sit here and say nothing whilst my country falls apart. SNP wanting independence, NI and now Gibraltar. The economic chickens have not rousted yet but with the third rate representing us who knows what crock of shite they will deliver. The £350 Million a week for the NHS is never going to materialise and we will still have millions of immigrants coming here instead of Europeans probably Asian and Africans...
    Gibraltar is no more a problem now than it was a year ago or 5 years ago. The Spanish are always going on about it being theirs and trying various ways to try and make life difficult for both the UK and the people of Gibraltar. The answer is always very simple. We say no. That will be the same now as it was every time before and the result will be the same. Spain will sulk and things will continue as they did before.
    Well quite. - But that kind of sensible reporting doesn’t generate column inches.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Would love to see Cat Smith's spin were Labour to lose Gorton.

    Labour won't lose Gorton IMO. Their vote will most likely crash from 67% to about 40% but the opposition will be divided.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    kle4 said:

    isam said:
    That is seriously so damn adorable.

    I love seeing man's power over the animal kingdom.
    Man's power over the animal kingdom? Who exactly is serving whom in that video?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited March 2017
    MTimT said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:
    That is seriously so damn adorable.

    I love seeing man's power over the animal kingdom.
    Man's power over the animal kingdom? Who exactly is serving whom in that video?
    This is how it starts, training them to perform a simple task with the reward of treats. That's just phase 1. The video won't show phase 2 - covert animal assassinations.

    What else will they do to earn treats, once they realise specific actions will lead to it?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MTimT said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:
    That is seriously so damn adorable.

    I love seeing man's power over the animal kingdom.
    Man's power over the animal kingdom? Who exactly is serving whom in that video?

    Dogs have masters.

    Cats have staff.

  • PierrePierre Posts: 8
    kle4 said:

    Pierre said:

    I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

    GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.

    Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...

    You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
    No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MTimT said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:
    That is seriously so damn adorable.

    I love seeing man's power over the animal kingdom.
    Man's power over the animal kingdom? Who exactly is serving whom in that video?
    The cat on the left is going " I don't even have to ring my bell to get food, this is a farce, look, I ring your bell and get food"
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pierre said:

    kle4 said:

    Pierre said:

    I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

    GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.

    Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...

    You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
    No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
    You are George Galloway and I claim my new 12 sided pound coin
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Pierre said:

    kle4 said:

    Pierre said:

    I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

    GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.

    Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...

    You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
    No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
    Didn't work for him in London of course.
  • PierrePierre Posts: 8
    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Too late. The Daily Mailstas got there first
    Who cares about Gibraltar? It's a colonial relic... Brit expatriates are truly the most irritating people in the world! Always moaning about how 'fings' aren't what they used to be back 'ome...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited March 2017
    Pierre said:

    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Too late. The Daily Mailstas got there first
    Who cares about Gibraltar? It's a colonial relic... Brit expatriates are truly the most irritating people in the world! Always moaning about how 'fings' aren't what they used to be back 'ome...
    Who's talking about expats? These are Gibraltarians.

    As for being a relic, that may be so, what of it? Spain has no legitimate claim on it and the people are happy to stay in the UK (unless for 50% of them leaving the EU is so traumatic they are suddenly happy to go Spanish) so it is what it is. As citizens their rights are our responsibility too.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017
    Pierre said:

    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Too late. The Daily Mailstas got there first
    Who cares about Gibraltar?
    Which is why it makes sense to ask why it has even been mentioned?

    What's the real reason that they have felt the need to stress that it has no automatic right to share a UK/EU trade deal, that it needs co-authorisation from both parties for future inclusion and that the EU overall will not intervene or mediate?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    chestnut said:

    Pierre said:

    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Too late. The Daily Mailstas got there first
    Who cares about Gibraltar?
    Which is why it makes sense to ask why it has even been mentioned?

    Spain messing around with the negotiations in the hopes of settling a personal issue in their favour long term. Rather selfish of them toward the other member states.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2017
    These are the changes in today's London opinion poll from the general election, (with UKIP actually up slightly):

    Lab -5%
    Con -1%
    LD +6%
    UKIP +1%
    Greens nc

    8 seats would change hands:

    Bermondsey: LD gain from Lab
    Brentford: Con gain from Lab
    Ealing Central: Con gain from Lab
    Enfield North: Con gain from Lab
    Hampstead: Con gain from Lab
    Ilford North: Con gain from Lab
    Kingston: LD gain from Con
    Twickenham: LD gain from Con

    Con +3 seats
    Lab -6 seats
    LD +3 seats
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Pierre said:

    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Too late. The Daily Mailstas got there first
    Who cares about Gibraltar? It's a colonial relic... Brit expatriates are truly the most irritating people in the world! Always moaning about how 'fings' aren't what they used to be back 'ome...
    Expats? My wife's family arrived here from Malta in 1708.

    Yeah. Bloody immigrants, eh?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Off topic, who are these people who want to back Francois Fillon at such short prices, and why?
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    chestnut said:

    Pierre said:

    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Too late. The Daily Mailstas got there first
    Who cares about Gibraltar?
    Which is why it makes sense to ask why it has even been mentioned?

    What's the real reason that they have felt the need to stress that it has no automatic right to share a UK/EU trade deal, that it needs co-authorisation from both parties for future inclusion and that the EU overall will not intervene or mediate?
    Never been mentioned because it's Leavers were taking about. They don't do consequences and will still be bleating "no-one expected that to happen" when the Scots and Irish leave.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, I'm staying out of this market. Labour should win at a canter but I have better short priced odds in the same time horizon.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Chris_A said:

    chestnut said:

    Pierre said:

    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

    Too late. The Daily Mailstas got there first
    Who cares about Gibraltar?
    Which is why it makes sense to ask why it has even been mentioned?

    What's the real reason that they have felt the need to stress that it has no automatic right to share a UK/EU trade deal, that it needs co-authorisation from both parties for future inclusion and that the EU overall will not intervene or mediate?
    Never been mentioned because it's Leavers were taking about. They don't do consequences and will still be bleating "no-one expected that to happen" when the Scots and Irish leave.
    Why are the Scots going to leave, what's changed? Are the opinion polls showing a massive clammering for Independence?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Spain has as much right to Gibraltar as the UK has to the Republic of Ireland.
This discussion has been closed.