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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make a bad story worse for Corbyn’s LAB

Writing a thread on why Labour might do even worse than headline polling figures suggest feels uncomfortably like kicking a man when he’s down. However, if that’s what’s happening then it needs reporting and interpreting; I am only the messenger. And it is happening. Poll after poll has reported differential swings across regions, social groups and Brexit alignment.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    First on Day 3...
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Tidespring in Falmouth today.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    How come my post was deleted ? I was the first one.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    surbiton said:

    How come my post was deleted ? I was the first one.

    It's all Brexit's fault! I'm surprised you didn't realise this!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    surbiton said:

    How come my post was deleted ? I was the first one.

    You're a Remainer. Those are the rules in New Britain
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Charles said:

    First on Day 3...

    By some miracle the Sun rose again...(well, it has here, I expect its on your way...)

    To cheer up the Remoaners:

    https://twitter.com/ComedyCentralUK/status/847859783801737217
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    On topic - great thread - though I think you'll rue the day you wrote this:

    Scotland has more chance of winning the World Cup than it does of electing a Labour government.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    I had been conscious for a while that the Tories seemed to be doing exceptionally well in the midlands and were looking to joining much of it to their dominant position in the south ( exc London). I had not appreciated that there was a similar pattern elsewhere.

    In Scotland I expect Labour to do somewhat better in May than indicated, probably more mid teens than single figures, but this will be yet another fall from the top table. The good news, as David points out, is that in Westminster terms they have next to nothing to lose up here. The bad news is that it is very difficult to see a Labour government without a substantial Scottish contingent. I know Blair would have had a majority without Scotland but his Labour Party reached parts of the electorate that are completely out of sight now.

    The wheel usually turns in politics and there is no doubt that Brexit is fraught with risk for a Conservative party now wholly committed to it but Labour are really playing with oblivion while they indulge themselves.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    A very good thread, David. A consequence of Labour's dire polling is that they are losing that bedrock that have "voted Labour all my life. It's what we do". Once these voters wake up to the fact that blind allegiance has got them nowhere - and that the world will not end if they try somebody else - Labour's Himalayan trek has to be done without oxygen. In shorts and flip-flops.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    This would imply about 60 Conservative gains from Labour.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Up a bit earlier than normal this morning. Just packed my daughter off on a school exchange trip to Japan. Finding it difficult to adjust to the idea of her heading off to the other side of the world.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Not quite the Island of San Serif....


    George Osborne has reignited the row over his multiple business commitments after it emerged the former chancellor is planning to launch his own clothing line.

    In a letter to the House of Commons authorities, seen by the Guardian, Osborne told the advisory committee on business appointments that his new fashion firm would design “high-quality, hi-visibility industrial garments aimed at the multitasking CEO”.

    His ideal client, he said, would be someone who “takes note of fashion while taking care of business”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/01/by-georgio-osborne-takes-new-job-as-fashion-designer
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    There was a remarkable change in the timbre of his voice when Adm. Rogers defended GCHQ, his British counterpart, passionately adding to his denial that spying on the president-elect would be “expressly against the construct of the Five Eyes agreement.”

    The Five Eyes agreement, for those who do not know, is an intelligence-sharing alliance between the U.S., the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. And in case you didn't notice, the National Security Agency is closer to GCHQ than it is to the CIA. Rogers's comment was about "family." Trust me. I know. I've been to Bletchley Park, and I've headed both American agencies.


    Gen. Michael Hayden is a former director of the CIA and the National Security Agency.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/the-administration/325250-michael-hayden-us-intel-agencies-win-big-but-russia#.WN8la3sMkw0.twitter
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    Sean_F said:

    This would imply about 60 Conservative gains from Labour.

    Many would be seats that haven't voted Conservative for decades (eg Grimsby, Halifax, Hartlepool, NE Derbyshire, Stoke North and South). But, some ex-Conservative seats would remain Labour (eg Exeter, Crosby, Croydon North, Bristol West).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    DavidL said:

    I had been conscious for a while that the Tories seemed to be doing exceptionally well in the midlands and were looking to joining much of it to their dominant position in the south ( exc London). I had not appreciated that there was a similar pattern elsewhere.

    In Scotland I expect Labour to do somewhat better in May than indicated, probably more mid teens than single figures, but this will be yet another fall from the top table. The good news, as David points out, is that in Westminster terms they have next to nothing to lose up here. The bad news is that it is very difficult to see a Labour government without a substantial Scottish contingent. I know Blair would have had a majority without Scotland but his Labour Party reached parts of the electorate that are completely out of sight now.

    The wheel usually turns in politics and there is no doubt that Brexit is fraught with risk for a Conservative party now wholly committed to it but Labour are really playing with oblivion while they indulge themselves.

    Politically, the Midlands (outside Birmingham, Leicester, Nottingham) is becoming like the South outside London.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Up a bit earlier than normal this morning. Just packed my daughter off on a school exchange trip to Japan. Finding it difficult to adjust to the idea of her heading off to the other side of the world.

    I hope she has a great time!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2017
    Sadly for Labour Mr Herdson's thread is no April fool.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    As the leadership numbers in the YouGov London poll suggest, Labour's support in London is very fragile. If London progressives see a serious alternative, they may well decamp to it en masse. Apparently safe seats might be surprisingly vulnerable unless Labour takes action.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity if they choose to pursue it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    Up a bit earlier than normal this morning. Just packed my daughter off on a school exchange trip to Japan. Finding it difficult to adjust to the idea of her heading off to the other side of the world.

    Good for her. And you. Just wait until she decides to have a year travelling. Watching them ‘fly the nest’ is one of a parents' good experiences, because, IMHO, if one is happy with one’s child going, then they’ll be happy to come home, too.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple.

    Simple and easy aren't the same.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    Huntingdon?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The Lib Dems are stuck at 10% seemingly unable to benefit from Corbyn or Brexit.

    Yet Labour are in crisis?
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    Have you heard the one about Anne Soubry the new Liberal Democrat MP for Broxtowe?

    May not be a joke after all!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    edited April 2017
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    That's roughly the number the Liberals won in 1923. Which was a mere 17 years after they won 400 seats and reduced the Unionists to the smallest number they have ever held.

    In 1924 they went down to 40 very abruptly - their leader lost his seat for the second time in seven years.

    The next time they won more than sixty was in 2005 (excluding 1931 where the three factions together totalled 72).

    Labour's right to exist is not God-given.
  • Not quite the Island of San Serif....


    George Osborne has reignited the row over his multiple business commitments after it emerged the former chancellor is planning to launch his own clothing line.

    In a letter to the House of Commons authorities, seen by the Guardian, Osborne told the advisory committee on business appointments that his new fashion firm would design “high-quality, hi-visibility industrial garments aimed at the multitasking CEO”.

    His ideal client, he said, would be someone who “takes note of fashion while taking care of business”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/01/by-georgio-osborne-takes-new-job-as-fashion-designer

    Ima Pulenyerlegg is his spokeswoman. Bloody foreigners taking all our jobs.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Not an April Fool's fan, to be honest. The idea that the nation's foremost jam enthusiast might be 15 points behind in the polls is crazy nonsense. Chairman Corbyn's universally popular!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Good morning, everyone.

    Not an April Fool's fan, to be honest. The idea that the nation's foremost jam enthusiast might be 15 points behind in the polls is crazy nonsense. Chairman Corbyn's universally popular!

    'Jam tomorrow' used to be in Labour's manifesto, now it's in the leader's diary.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Glenn, vote Corbyn today for jam tomorrow!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    Probably 165, the number won in 1997.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    See May 1 1997.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Not quite the Island of San Serif....


    George Osborne has reignited the row over his multiple business commitments after it emerged the former chancellor is planning to launch his own clothing line.

    In a letter to the House of Commons authorities, seen by the Guardian, Osborne told the advisory committee on business appointments that his new fashion firm would design “high-quality, hi-visibility industrial garments aimed at the multitasking CEO”.

    His ideal client, he said, would be someone who “takes note of fashion while taking care of business”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/01/by-georgio-osborne-takes-new-job-as-fashion-designer

    April 1st :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    edited April 2017
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    That's roughly the number the Liberals won in 1923. Which was a mere 17 years after they won 400 seats and reduced the Unionists to the smallest number they have ever held.

    In 1924 they went down to 40 very abruptly - their leader lost his seat for the second time in seven years.

    The next time they won more than sixty was in 2005 (excluding 1931 where the three factions together totalled 72).

    Labour's right to exist is not God-given.
    No, but they need to have a rival (like the SNP) for that to happen. UKIP are probably fading. The Lib Dems could win over urban trendies from Labour, but not their core supporters in deprived areas.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    Probably 165, the number won in 1997.
    I thought it would be about the same but defer to expert knowledge!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems are stuck at 10% seemingly unable to benefit from Corbyn or Brexit.

    Yet Labour are in crisis?

    Lab 27.1 (-4.1)
    LD 10.2 (+2.1)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    See May 1 1997.
    That said, Labour won 8 seats in Kent in 1997. They all now look solid for the Conservatives.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    See May 1 1997.
    That said, Labour won 8 seats in Kent in 1997. They all now look solid for the Conservatives.
    But if we were back in 1997 landslide territory it by definition means a number of seats going Red that look solid blue now.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems are stuck at 10% seemingly unable to benefit from Corbyn or Brexit.

    Yet Labour are in crisis?

    Lab 27.1 (-4.1)
    LD 10.2 (+2.1)
    It could be a lot worse than that. My hunch is that people who say they vote Labour are more unlikely to turn out, it could be a car crash of epic proportions.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922

    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems are stuck at 10% seemingly unable to benefit from Corbyn or Brexit.

    Yet Labour are in crisis?

    Lab 27.1 (-4.1)
    LD 10.2 (+2.1)
    It could be a lot worse than that. My hunch is that people who say they vote Labour are more unlikely to turn out, it could be a car crash of epic proportions.
    Agree with that. Corbyn is so dull & uninspiring that even the minority of voters who are not repelled by what he stands for will probably not be enthused enough to vote for his party. It was telling that the last Momentum rally in Westminster was so small that even the man himself couldn't be bothered to turn up for it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    That's roughly the number the Liberals won in 1923. Which was a mere 17 years after they won 400 seats and reduced the Unionists to the smallest number they have ever held.

    In 1924 they went down to 40 very abruptly - their leader lost his seat for the second time in seven years.

    The next time they won more than sixty was in 2005 (excluding 1931 where the three factions together totalled 72).

    Labour's right to exist is not God-given.
    The one compensation for Labour is that its support has always been heavily concentrated, whereas the Liberals had the handicap of a more even geographical spread of support. The latter can win you a majority, if you poll high enough, but makes it much easier to be wiped out if the level of support drops away.
  • I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Cumbria, but is the positive or negative impact likelier to have the greater weight? Your last sentence suggest the latter.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,750
    edited April 2017
    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    Excellent article, though as ever it is far from clear that any of the likely alternatives would do better than Corbyn.

    And of course the new boundaries ...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    Interesting. I was wondering how soon the backlash for whining about Brexit would hit the LDs. This anecdata fits the polling data on Mrs May securing way more CDE support than the posh boys managed.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    OT - How much does the polling take account of likelihood to vote by age and also the incumbency effect on, eg , gains from Con-LD in the last election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Mortimer said:

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    Interesting. I was wondering how soon the backlash for whining about Brexit would hit the LDs. This anecdata fits the polling data on Mrs May securing way more CDE support than the posh boys managed.
    Mrs. May is doing a grand job of detoffifying the Tory brand.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    edited April 2017

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
    I think the discontent will get them past the next election. The 21% who want Brexit overturned will gravitate to them.

    A 13% swing in Inner London would regain Bermondsey and Hornsey & Wood Green, and would suggest they could regain seats like Cambridge and Bristol West.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    See May 1 1997.
    That said, Labour won 8 seats in Kent in 1997. They all now look solid for the Conservatives.
    But if we were back in 1997 landslide territory it by definition means a number of seats going Red that look solid blue now.
    This Labour landslide territory - so they're bringing Tony Blair back?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    felix said:

    OT - How much does the polling take account of likelihood to vote by age and also the incumbency effect on, eg , gains from Con-LD in the last election.

    AFAIK the polls are always weighted by tendency to vote, but when it comes to the seat calculations they are based on uniform swing (please, someone correct me if I'm mistaken.) I would've thought incumbency effects would be rather difficult to model.

    That said, the Lib Dems are very strong campaigners, and their support is off the floor, albeit not by that much. One might expect them to outperform in seats that they held last time and where they were beaten by a very narrow margin and/or there was a decisive Remain vote. Hence Mr Herdson's passing reference to a good chance of LD gains from Con in London, and if the yellows can't get Cambridge back next time then they might as well pack up and go home.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    See May 1 1997.
    That said, Labour won 8 seats in Kent in 1997. They all now look solid for the Conservatives.
    But if we were back in 1997 landslide territory it by definition means a number of seats going Red that look solid blue now.
    ? Labour taking solid Tory seats ?
    Shome mishtake shorely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems are stuck at 10% seemingly unable to benefit from Corbyn or Brexit.

    Yet Labour are in crisis?

    It's possible fir more than one to be incrisis. Also they have different goals. The immediate goal of the lds is to improve their position. They're doing that, albeit not as much as they should. Labours goal is to be able to form the next government, a much higher and harder goal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Sean_F said:

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
    I think the discontent will get them past the next election. The 21% who want Brexit overturned will gravitate to them.

    A 13% swing in Inner London would regain Bermondsey and Hornsey & Wood Green, and would suggest they could regain seats like Cambridge and Bristol West.
    But once again they gave nothing to keep them long term.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems are stuck at 10% seemingly unable to benefit from Corbyn or Brexit.

    Yet Labour are in crisis?

    Yes but the Lib Dems are a couple of byelection victories short of a renaissance whereas Labour are on an inexorable slide.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited April 2017
    Mr. Roger, not so sure I agree.

    The Lib Dem eurosausage approach will get them hardcore Remain types but also prevent many from seriously considering them. It's tactically useful and strategically inept.

    Meanwhile, Labour doesn't have a serious non-Conservative rival in England/Wales. If it did, the party would be staring down the barrel of a space cannon. That absence, however, means they're still going to be in a position to rebuild even if they have a terrible 2020 election.

    Edited extra bit: 'eurosausage' reminds me - perhaps a good definition of an era-defining event (such as leaving the EU) is something that makes an episode of Yes (Prime) Minister look out of date?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Sean_F said:

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
    I think the discontent will get them past the next election. The 21% who want Brexit overturned will gravitate to them.

    A 13% swing in Inner London would regain Bermondsey and Hornsey & Wood Green, and would suggest they could regain seats like Cambridge and Bristol West.
    There is a large body of opinion on here that the final Brexit deal with be, shall we say, sub-optimal. BUT... If May delivers something which is widely reported as not too bad considering, the LibDems will have nailed their colours to a sinking mast. And - whisper it - I can see them losing some of their 9 seats.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    Sean_F said:

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
    I think the discontent will get them past the next election. The 21% who want Brexit overturned will gravitate to them.
    They will pick up arch Remainers of a certain age, nationality and ethnicity, I'd guess.

    I think the young will be tempted by the Greens, the nationalists by PC and the SNP, while Jezza's inner city BAME vote will essentially hold, especially the Muslim segment.

    How many Euro super Enthusiast, overwhelmingly white, middle class, 40+, pro UK, Tory coalition forgiving voters are there to go around?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Do they even claim sovereignty? They don't have a claim unless they want to criticise that we haven't abided by the treaty and allowed Jews and moors in, or quibble about exact boundaries or something like that. I thought what they did was state how they would like sovereignty over it, not that they have a valid claim over it already?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,032
    Excellent article, David.

    Theresa May is pursuing the right political strategy for the Conservatives.

    And it's working.
  • Excellent analysis David, I would add one further observeration.

    Labour's dire polling with the over 65s.

    That's pressaging an ELE for Labour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
    I think the discontent will get them past the next election. The 21% who want Brexit overturned will gravitate to them.

    A 13% swing in Inner London would regain Bermondsey and Hornsey & Wood Green, and would suggest they could regain seats like Cambridge and Bristol West.
    But once again they gave nothing to keep them long term.
    Post 2020, different issues will emerge for them to campaign on. Right now, the target should be to get back to 15% or so support, 20 or so seats, and 3,000 or so councillors. Diehard opposition to Brexit gives them that opportunity.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,032
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    This would imply about 60 Conservative gains from Labour.

    Many would be seats that haven't voted Conservative for decades (eg Grimsby, Halifax, Hartlepool, NE Derbyshire, Stoke North and South). But, some ex-Conservative seats would remain Labour (eg Exeter, Crosby, Croydon North, Bristol West).
    But, let's say Corbyn is thrown overboard next year, and replaced.

    How much can a new Labour leader claw back in 2 years? All of it, so they're back to Milliband's position, or is the damage too great?

    That's the question I'm trying to assess in betting on this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    That's roughly the number the Liberals won in 1923. Which was a mere 17 years after they won 400 seats and reduced the Unionists to the smallest number they have ever held.

    In 1924 they went down to 40 very abruptly - their leader lost his seat for the second time in seven years.

    The next time they won more than sixty was in 2005 (excluding 1931 where the three factions together totalled 72).

    Labour's right to exist is not God-given.
    That's true, but so is labour not going to drop below 150. Unless there's a game changer whereby they not only remain unpopular but another party becomes popular, they will receive millions of votes, concentrated enough to win hundreds of seats, no matter how well the Tories do.

    They have no god given right to exist, but they wont go anywhere and disappear either unless Someone makes them. They won't split, and no one else currently reaches them in so many areas.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Mark, they'd have to work hard. Farron's uninspiring but the main party of opposition is led by Corbyn. A man whom the vast majority of his own MPs think isn't up to the job.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,032
    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    See May 1 1997.
    That said, Labour won 8 seats in Kent in 1997. They all now look solid for the Conservatives.
    There are quite a few seats in Shire England that Labour will probably never win again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    This would imply about 60 Conservative gains from Labour.

    Many would be seats that haven't voted Conservative for decades (eg Grimsby, Halifax, Hartlepool, NE Derbyshire, Stoke North and South). But, some ex-Conservative seats would remain Labour (eg Exeter, Crosby, Croydon North, Bristol West).
    But, let's say Corbyn is thrown overboard next year, and replaced.

    How much can a new Labour leader claw back in 2 years? All of it, so they're back to Milliband's position, or is the damage too great?

    That's the question I'm trying to assess in betting on this.
    They can claw it back. Seems too much, but while he is not the only issue corbyn is depressing the vote, forcing many to choose Tory if a binary may-corbyn choice is presented, and there would be huge relief from many who'd flock back to see them recover. If Brexit is going poorly expect that to be even faster.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    edited April 2017

    felix said:

    OT - How much does the polling take account of likelihood to vote by age and also the incumbency effect on, eg , gains from Con-LD in the last election.

    AFAIK the polls are always weighted by tendency to vote, but when it comes to the seat calculations they are based on uniform swing (please, someone correct me if I'm mistaken.) I would've thought incumbency effects would be rather difficult to model.

    That said, the Lib Dems are very strong campaigners, and their support is off the floor, albeit not by that much. One might expect them to outperform in seats that they held last time and where they were beaten by a very narrow margin and/or there was a decisive Remain vote. Hence Mr Herdson's passing reference to a good chance of LD gains from Con in London, and if the yellows can't get Cambridge back next time then they might as well pack up and go home.
    In modelling votes to seats we should remember that "straight swing" is a very crude model, based on next-to-no hard analysis as to why something counter-intuitive appears to sort-of-work, that was derived as a rule-of-thumb back in the days when there were only two parties and no powerful computers to do more sophisticated modelling fast enough for the BBC live broadcast.

    For the LibDems in particular it doesn't really work - the 2015 absolute loss of votes in most of their 2010 won seats was larger than the total votes they had to lose in the first place in very many locations, and it is reasonable to suggest that the reverse will be true during recovery. Modelling the LibDem vote is also complicated by the existence of tactical voting, and it isn't clear how powerful (and in which directions!) that might be in 2020. Thirdly the LibDems depend more than the other parties on an effective local organisation to beat FPTnP and turn potential victory into an actual win; my sense is that many former LibDem seats are rebuilding effectively and raring to go, but there are inevitably some where the previous MP has retired and the organisation isn't what it once was.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems are stuck at 10% seemingly unable to benefit from Corbyn or Brexit.

    Yet Labour are in crisis?

    It's possible fir more than one to be incrisis. Also they have different goals. The immediate goal of the lds is to improve their position. They're doing that, albeit not as much as they should. Labours goal is to be able to form the next government, a much higher and harder goal.
    It's certainly what their goal should be, but there isn't a lot of evidence that it actually is...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Scottish Nationalists rightly believe that if the majority of Scots choose independence from the UK, then they should be granted it. Likewise, citizens of Gibraltar should be able to keep their current arrangements for as long as they wish them to continue.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Sean_F said:

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
    I think the discontent will get them past the next election. The 21% who want Brexit overturned will gravitate to them.

    A 13% swing in Inner London would regain Bermondsey and Hornsey & Wood Green, and would suggest they could regain seats like Cambridge and Bristol West.
    And Kingston and Richmond..
    Mole valley is a distinct possibility for them as well
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    chestnut said:

    Sean_F said:

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
    I think the discontent will get them past the next election. The 21% who want Brexit overturned will gravitate to them.
    They will pick up arch Remainers of a certain age, nationality and ethnicity, I'd guess.

    I think the young will be tempted by the Greens, the nationalists by PC and the SNP, while Jezza's inner city BAME vote will essentially hold, especially the Muslim segment.

    How many Euro super Enthusiast, overwhelmingly white, middle class, 40+, pro UK, Tory coalition forgiving voters are there to go around?
    These 21% who want Brexit overturned will include a chunk of committed Conservative and Labour voters. Where is the evidence that they are mopping up the Anna Soubrey's? The Tony Blairs? The Libdems might skim off a few, but equally, will lose previous LibDems who think the whining about the Brexit result and wanting to overturn a democratic mandate is not for them.

    Article 50 Notice is served. We are leaving. The LibDems will be painted as Rejoiners - having the UK grasp the ankles and assume the position on the Euro, free movement, ever greater union, an EU army, standardised tax rates....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088

    chestnut said:

    Sean_F said:

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
    I think the discontent will get them past the next election. The 21% who want Brexit overturned will gravitate to them.
    They will pick up arch Remainers of a certain age, nationality and ethnicity, I'd guess.

    I think the young will be tempted by the Greens, the nationalists by PC and the SNP, while Jezza's inner city BAME vote will essentially hold, especially the Muslim segment.

    How many Euro super Enthusiast, overwhelmingly white, middle class, 40+, pro UK, Tory coalition forgiving voters are there to go around?
    These 21% who want Brexit overturned will include a chunk of committed Conservative and Labour voters. Where is the evidence that they are mopping up the Anna Soubrey's? The Tony Blairs? The Libdems might skim off a few, but equally, will lose previous LibDems who think the whining about the Brexit result and wanting to overturn a democratic mandate is not for them.

    Article 50 Notice is served. We are leaving. The LibDems will be painted as Rejoiners - having the UK grasp the ankles and assume the position on the Euro, free movement, ever greater union, an EU army, standardised tax rates....
    Exactly who will be assuming the position is actually the key difference of opinion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    See May 1 1997.
    That said, Labour won 8 seats in Kent in 1997. They all now look solid for the Conservatives.
    There are quite a few seats in Shire England that Labour will probably never win again.
    Anyone know as a ballpark figure how many shire seats Blair won? Given that I find even many labour figures seem a little blue round here, it amazing to think how labour could chalkenge in such places.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Mr. Roger, not so sure I agree.

    The Lib Dem eurosausage approach will get them hardcore Remain types but also prevent many from seriously considering them. It's tactically useful and strategically inept.

    Meanwhile, Labour doesn't have a serious non-Conservative rival in England/Wales. If it did, the party would be staring down the barrel of a space cannon. That absence, however, means they're still going to be in a position to rebuild even if they have a terrible 2020 election.

    Edited extra bit: 'eurosausage' reminds me - perhaps a good definition of an era-defining event (such as leaving the EU) is something that makes an episode of Yes (Prime) Minister look out of date?

    If Brexit goes as many of us expect-and by the day the ominous signs are unfurling-the Lib Dems will be uniquely poised to take advantage. It was their opportunism over Iraq that got them into government in 2010 and their opportunism over getting into government that saw them decimated in 2015. Brexit is their next gamble.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Lib Dems are stuck at 10% seemingly unable to benefit from Corbyn or Brexit.

    Yet Labour are in crisis?

    It's possible fir more than one to be incrisis. Also they have different goals. The immediate goal of the lds is to improve their position. They're doing that, albeit not as much as they should. Labours goal is to be able to form the next government, a much higher and harder goal.
    It's certainly what their goal should be, but there isn't a lot of evidence that it actually is...
    That's why their crisis is more severe.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    All this talk of 1997, 1983, 1935 or 1931 being the floor for a parties support is I'd contend wildly optimistic. As bad as things were in any of those elections they could have always been worse.

    Take 1997 for example. The Tories actually went into the election with a growing economy and rather good economic competence ratings. It wasn't enough to stave off disaster but how much worse would the disaster have been if Ken Clarke had the economic competence ratings of John McDonnell for instance?

    I'd suggest Canada 1993 as the better example of a parties floor.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    The sooner that England is taken down a peg or two and finally realises that the days of the butcher's apron smothering the rest of the world are over, the better. All territories outside England currently under British sovereignty should become independent or pass to the jurisdiction of a more appropriate local state. The UN security council should be re-organised to have as its 5 permanent members the EU, USA, Russia, China and India. NATO should be disbanded and replaced by an EU armed force for the protection of Europe.


  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    See May 1 1997.
    That said, Labour won 8 seats in Kent in 1997. They all now look solid for the Conservatives.
    There are quite a few seats in Shire England that Labour will probably never win again.
    Anyone know as a ballpark figure how many shire seats Blair won? Given that I find even many labour figures seem a little blue round here, it amazing to think how labour could chalkenge in such places.
    Five in Herts., Four in Essex, Four in Northants., Eight in Kent, places like Selby, NW Norfolk, South Dorset, Warwick and Leamington, Monmouth, Scarborough.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    chestnut said:

    Sean_F said:

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
    I think the discontent will get them past the next election. The 21% who want Brexit overturned will gravitate to them.
    They will pick up arch Remainers of a certain age, nationality and ethnicity, I'd guess.

    I think the young will be tempted by the Greens, the nationalists by PC and the SNP, while Jezza's inner city BAME vote will essentially hold, especially the Muslim segment.

    How many Euro super Enthusiast, overwhelmingly white, middle class, 40+, pro UK, Tory coalition forgiving voters are there to go around?
    These 21% who want Brexit overturned will include a chunk of committed Conservative and Labour voters. Where is the evidence that they are mopping up the Anna Soubrey's? The Tony Blairs? The Libdems might skim off a few, but equally, will lose previous LibDems who think the whining about the Brexit result and wanting to overturn a democratic mandate is not for them.

    Article 50 Notice is served. We are leaving. The LibDems will be painted as Rejoiners - having the UK grasp the ankles and assume the position on the Euro, free movement, ever greater union, an EU army, standardised tax rates....
    21% is peak battered Remainer. There's no enthusiasm other than get it over with. When things start going pear shaped the other 27% of Remainers plus a few of Hartlipool's finest will soon remember that they never wanted Brexit in the first place. Infact a few sighting of Boris should do it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    In the spirit of the day, I think the Tories should be appalled they are not increasing their support across the south. Why, there's a whole 4 seats in the south west up for grabs, 3 of them in Bristol. And probably another 5 or so if you include the south east and east anglia.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    See May 1 1997.
    That said, Labour won 8 seats in Kent in 1997. They all now look solid for the Conservatives.
    There are quite a few seats in Shire England that Labour will probably never win again.
    Anyone know as a ballpark figure how many shire seats Blair won? Given that I find even many labour figures seem a little blue round here, it amazing to think how labour could chalkenge in such places.
    Five in Herts., Four in Essex, Four in Northants., Eight in Kent, places like Selby, NW Norfolk, South Dorset, Warwick and Leamington, Monmouth, Scarborough.
    Cheers
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    daodao said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    The sooner that England is taken down a peg or two and finally realises that the days of the butcher's apron smothering the rest of the world are over, the better. All territories outside England currently under British sovereignty should become independent or pass to the jurisdiction of a more appropriate local state. The UN security council should be re-organised to have as its 5 permanent members the EU, USA, Russia, China and India. NATO should be disbanded and replaced by an EU armed force for the protection of Europe.


    Unlike you, I favour self-determination.

    I don't understand your self-hatred.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    See May 1 1997.
    That said, Labour won 8 seats in Kent in 1997. They all now look solid for the Conservatives.
    There are quite a few seats in Shire England that Labour will probably never win again.
    Understatement alert, Mr C_R.

    Sorry you couldn't make it on Wednesday - hope you had a good bash!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    "Not all firms disaggregate Wales from the Midlands, presumably because of its small population and – unlike Scotland – its tendency to swing more-or-less in line with England."

    Whilst I'm thinking about this, Welsh-only polling isn't conducted very often but surveys are made from time to time. Seat projections based on the most recent Welsh Barometer poll suggested almost no change assuming an election takes place on the existing boundaries - presumably because most Labour seats are low size, low turnout constituencies in the South where the Tories are still largely weak, and where Labour is defending very large percentage majorities.

    However, based on these polling numbers AND the revised boundaries, Labour's advantage over the Conservatives is cut to three seats (14 vs 11.) If realised, such a result would also represent the first time that Labour had failed to win an absolute majority of all MPs returned from Wales since 1931.
  • Richard Burgon is "GENUINELY " a bell end. some of the replies to his tesco trip tweet are very funny.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    daodao said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    The sooner that England is taken down a peg or two and finally realises that the days of the butcher's apron smothering the rest of the world are over, the better. All territories outside England currently under British sovereignty should become independent or pass to the jurisdiction of a more appropriate local state. The UN security council should be re-organised to have as its 5 permanent members the EU, USA, Russia, China and India. NATO should be disbanded and replaced by an EU armed force for the protection of Europe.


    bit early to be out goose stepping
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017

    These 21% who want Brexit overturned will include a chunk of committed Conservative and Labour voters. Where is the evidence that they are mopping up the Anna Soubrey's? The Tony Blairs? The Libdems might skim off a few, but equally, will lose previous LibDems who think the whining about the Brexit result and wanting to overturn a democratic mandate is not for them.

    Article 50 Notice is served. We are leaving. The LibDems will be painted as Rejoiners - having the UK grasp the ankles and assume the position on the Euro, free movement, ever greater union, an EU army, standardised tax rates....

    By 2020, the direct consequences of Rejoining could be that we will have to commit £350m a week to payments to the EU, we will have to reimpose VAT on fuel bills, we will have to reimpose all the hidden eurotaxes on global imports etc....

    It becomes a big tax raising manifesto, slash, suicide note.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited April 2017
    daodao said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    The sooner that England is taken down a peg or two and finally realises that the days of the butcher's apron smothering the rest of the world are over, the better. All territories outside England currently under British sovereignty should become independent or pass to the jurisdiction of a more appropriate local state. The UN security council should be re-organised to have as its 5 permanent members the EU, USA, Russia, China and India. NATO should be disbanded and replaced by an EU armed force for the protection of Europe.


    Why is Spain a more appropriate state? It's been British for 300 years and the land was signed away legally (yes there was war - the boundaries of all states are defined that way, unless you think we should get Calais back, or berwick to Scotland, or former Greek colonies in Spain go back to them or however far back you go). And what if people don't want to be independent or handed over? How is it the British smothering the world if the people dont wanto be unsmothered?

    In this day and age most of us by far would not support empire. But for places like that, anti imperialists tend to forget they've already won, and act like we still hold any places by force. It's absurd. Does Spain have a god given right to rule the entire peninsula? Portugal would be surprised by that. Who decided all areas must be ruled by the most local state? How local does that need to be? What administrative units are allowed to stand o their own? Shoukd the baltics be run by the nearest local state, they are very small after all.

    Ranting about empire makes for good fun, but we do t really have one anymore to rant against, and even if we do, reducing the issues down so simply raises all sorts of complicated issues with implications for all countries, from France and Spain with their territories, to the USA and Mexico to South American borders and so many more.


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited April 2017

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    My understanding was that land was leased to us, not permanent?

    It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know enough about that one, including what the locals wanted. At the least the Gibraltar situation is hundreds of years older, which regrettably has to be a factor. Someone was saying yesterday that it was moorish as long as it was Spanish, which further undermines the idea Spain must be the more appropriate state if true.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760

    Good morning, everyone.

    Not an April Fool's fan, to be honest. The idea that the nation's foremost jam enthusiast might be 15 points behind in the polls is crazy nonsense. Chairman Corbyn's universally popular!

    'Jam tomorrow' used to be in Labour's manifesto, now it's in the leader's diary.
    No, they've delivered jam today. They are stuck in the most colossal jam since the M25 was redesignated a road rather than a car park.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Scottish Nationalists rightly believe that if the majority of Scots choose independence from the UK, then they should be granted it. Likewise, citizens of Gibraltar should be able to keep their current arrangements for as long as they wish them to continue.
    Precisely.

    Unfortunately, a sizeable chunk of the Scottish Nationalist core vote are also nasty little blood and soil bigots who think that Bannockburn happened yesterday, and would rejoice if England and everyone in it were obliterated by a giant asteroid.

    Hence the "my enemy's enemy is my friend" logic, which extends to whoops of joy when 32,000 Gibraltarians are picked on by 47 million Spaniards - yet again. Any excess is justified so long as it upsets the hated oppressors.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Roger said:

    chestnut said:

    Sean_F said:

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
    I think the discontent will get them past the next election. The 21% who want Brexit overturned will gravitate to them.
    They will pick up arch Remainers of a certain age, nationality and ethnicity, I'd guess.

    I think the young will be tempted by the Greens, the nationalists by PC and the SNP, while Jezza's inner city BAME vote will essentially hold, especially the Muslim segment.

    How many Euro super Enthusiast, overwhelmingly white, middle class, 40+, pro UK, Tory coalition forgiving voters are there to go around?
    These 21% who want Brexit overturned will include a chunk of committed Conservative and Labour voters. Where is the evidence that they are mopping up the Anna Soubrey's? The Tony Blairs? The Libdems might skim off a few, but equally, will lose previous LibDems who think the whining about the Brexit result and wanting to overturn a democratic mandate is not for them.

    Article 50 Notice is served. We are leaving. The LibDems will be painted as Rejoiners - having the UK grasp the ankles and assume the position on the Euro, free movement, ever greater union, an EU army, standardised tax rates....
    21% is peak battered Remainer. There's no enthusiasm other than get it over with. When things start going pear shaped the other 27% of Remainers plus a few of Hartlipool's finest will soon remember that they never wanted Brexit in the first place. Infact a few sighting of Boris should do it
    No it is peak Remainer. You underestimate the power of inertia in politics. Currently leaving the EU is a genuinely radical proposition while simply Remaining is the status quo. It is the do nothing option.

    Once we have left that is no longer the case. Re-joining then will be a genuinely radical change and staying out will be simply the status quo.

    We should not leave is a much easier position to sell than having recently left we now need to rejoin.
This discussion has been closed.