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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It wasn’t an April Fool after all: Farage is PaddyPower’s new
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It wasn’t an April Fool after all: Farage is PaddyPower’s new political advisor
Last Thursday the Dublin-based PaddyPower issued a press release embargoed for April 1st announcing that former UKIP leader had become the firm’s political advisor.
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Conservatives: 43% (down 2 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)
Labour: 25% (down 1)
Ukip: 11% (up 1)
Lib Dems: 11% (up 2)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Conservative lead: 18 points (down 1)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/03/brexit-michael-howard-accused-of-absurd-jingoism-over-gibraltar-threat-politics-live
15:04
Former Labour foreign secretary Jack Straw, whose 2002 referendum asking Gibraltarians if they wanted Britain to share sovereignty with Spain was rejected by 99% to 1%,
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127
Jack Straw's Referendum?
He really doesn't want that Knighthood, does he?
Of course, the new combined authority mayorships do extend to some more Tory-friendly areas. Close race between blue and yellow in the West if England (Bristol plus/Avon minus) region, and nailed on certainty for Cambridgeshire.
Polling news: @UKLabour's joint-worst ever result with @ICMResearch today. Figures go back to 1983.
And while you're right that these aren't Westminster elections, it is a mayoral - and in mayoral elections, the candidate can have a disproportionate impact. I don't think I'm being biased in seeing the Con candidate as the stronger.
PP are loltastic, though: I note they have offered odds on the extinction of the polar bear, and the outcome of the Pistorius murder trial. Staying classy, obviously.
I've never seen Paddy Power offer anything interesting political betting wise.
Terrorism in St Petersburg:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39481770
One of the pleasing historical echoes in British politics is how the region that was most supportive of tariff reform in the 1900s was also the keenest on Brexit.
Bet on would there be more Tory MPs in Scotland than pandas.
https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/polar-bear-sighted-scottish-island
Prime Minister Theresa May has laughed off journalists' questions about going to war with Spain following the Gibraltar Brexit row.
Mrs May said her approach to negotiations was "definitely jaw jaw".
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127
Voters can feel freer to act out of character in Mayoral elections.
The last single digit value was 7pts, with Opinium two months ago, and the other two single figure leads this year were recorded in early January. There's enough evidence to suggest that the Tory lead is actually continuing to widen.
Early July 2016 (pre-Theresa May): 5.0%
Late July (post-Theresa May): 11.0%
August: 10.7%
September: 10.9%
October (post-Tory conference): 14.6%
November: 12.4%
December: 12.8%
January 2017 (month of Corbyn re-launch): 13.0%
February: 14.4%
March: 16.1%
He has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.
PS. It is rather amusing the PM has been asked to rule out war with Spain.
He's exactly the sort of person all parties should be encouraging to stand for offices like the regional Mayors, and if he wins it will he the big media story of the night bar a total labour collapse.
Coventry Northwest voted
6073 9605 21283
28.53 45.13 Lab / Tory in 2016.
Applying a 7% swing yields:
35.53 38.13 So Simon still ahead
It is pretty much the West Midlands mayoral election in microcosm.
I agree that pairwise Street is the better candidate.
Well, the EU started it...
I have wavered a little about Labour's floor, but I'm moving back towards the position that they're unlikely to drop below about 25% in a General Election. Even under Corbyn they've a long list of supporters, and the ones that haven't already departed appear to be in no hurry to do so.
Absent Corbyn falling under a bus or the Conservatives themselves falling into a fresh bout of civil war over Brexit, the extent of the Tory landslide at the next GE seems to be governed mainly by how much of what's left of the Ukip vote they can steal. The Liberal Democrats will be an important threat in a limited number of seats, but their rise in the polls appears to have stalled and they'll have to deploy some of their limited resources in defence, especially if boundary reform goes through.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848912156762492930
And your regular reminder: Oppositions normally peak mid-term, with Governments making up ground in the run up to elections.
K.
"I've tried, it's hard. I did get him in the white tails, and he looked smart on Remembrance Sunday. And I think that's where I peaked, really."
I presume this dates from the days when they largely represented the political wing of Trade Unions of civilian dockers and loadies who were working in what was really one large military base.
"No"
"WARMONGER !!!!"
We'll see where this ends up. I think the EU has made a major political miscalculation and the UK has overreacted. But, everyone is a little bit too tense and wound up.
I am happy to see humour as an antidote to that.
Labour is on course to lose 125 seats at next month's local elections - and suffer a "cataclysmic" defeat in Scotland, according to a new report.
Polling expert Robert Hayward said the party will suffer after losing touch with its traditional working class base.
Ukip are also on course to lose up to 90 seats as the party's post-Brexit decline in fortunes continues, he said.
The Lib Dems and Tories, meanwhile, are set to be the biggest winners, with gains of around 100 seats each when voters across the UK go to the polls on 4 May.
According to Lord Hayward, who is a Conservative peer, Labour is likely to lose control of Lancashire, Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire County Councils.
Of the councils which are up for grabs, he said the party is only certain to maintain control of Durham.
It is also set to lose control of Glasgow to the SNP, slip from first to third place in Edinburgh and also lose its small majority in Cardiff.
He said: "It will be a reflection of where the Labour party actually is - it isn't appealing to its old core of working class voters in the Midlands, the north and also Scotland."
Lord Hayward added that the result in Scotland - where Labour support has slipped from 29% the last time these seats were fought in 2012 to just 14% today - will be "cataclysmic" for the party.
The SNP are likely to maintain their current position in Scotland by gaining seats from Labour, but losing others to the Conservatives, including in Perth and Kinross.
Elsewhere, he said the Tories were likely to make gains from Ukip in East Sussex, Norfolk and Lincolnshire, while the Lib Dems will also make progress in Gloucestershire and could regain overall control of Cornwall and Somerset.
Based on his findings, Lord Hayward said the Conservatives would be on course for a majority of more than 100 seats if Theresa May called a snap election this year.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/84816/labour-set-lose-125-council-seats-next-month-and
By contrast, the Tory leads are exceptionally unusual for this stage of a parliament. Glen O'Hara's just tweeted that the Con lead/deficit is 23.7% better now than at the equivalent time in 2010-5. Methodology might account for a small amount of that but the rest is very real.
2nd EU Membership Referendum Before 2019? - No @ 1/5
Washington DC Democrat @ 1-50.
Montana GOP 1-6.
Will candidate win nomination (Trump) outright in the 1st Round of balloting? - Yes @ 1/2
Paddy has offered plenty of juicy markets.
The SNP are likely to maintain their current position in Scotland by gaining seats from Labour, but losing others to the Conservatives, including in Perth and Kinross.
That just can't happen. I've been reliably informed you can count all the Scottish Tories on one hand
Cameron couldn't convince the right-wing press with his deal from Brussels and lost the referendum. If Labour aren't seen as a threat then May will have to worry about her right flank.
"ICM’s director Martin Boon says support for Labour has only fallen this low only twice since the firm started polling for the Guardian: in June and August 2009, when Gordon Brown was prime minister.
There's a great opportunity for a London tailor to be the guy that can dress the undresable man.
Of the other "Smaller" areas (Outside Brum proper)
Dudley looks fairly even, small Lab lead - Sandwell and Wolverhampton weigh in the Labour councillors though. Meriden/Solihull has an amusingly small number of votes for such a large area of the map by geography. Walsall again reasonably even though like Dudley a small Labour lead.
& Of course Birmingham where The Conservatives start out 55k votes behind from 2016.
Street's price (4-7) is utterly extraordinary given the general territory which is actually tougher than London on the face of it.
Re- Corbyn. I think we have reached the point where his continuing as Leader should be viewed as an act of malevolence on his part.
I stand to be proven spectacularly and completely wrong by events, but not only do I not see the Hard Left majority amongst the membership voting to get rid of Corbyn, I don't see the man giving up, either.
He spent nigh-on a third of a century in the House of Commons before becoming leader as a consistently rebellious member of the minuscule Socialist Campaign Group, banging his head against the brick wall as the rest of the party moved away from him, but he never gave up. Now his faction finds itself, extraordinarily, in control of Labour - and with at least the chance to make that control permanent - why on Earth would he suddenly throw in the towel and let the PLP create a (relatively) moderate shortlist to replace him?
The only way he might conceivably go before the election is if the McDonnell Amendment passes, so that he and his tiny core of Parliamentary allies can nominate an ideologically acceptable successor. And even then I'm not at all sure that they'd want to take the chance.
Anyone with a shred of decency would have resigned before the public humiliation.
Sunderland boss David Moyes will be asked by the Football Association to explain himself after telling a BBC reporter she might "get a slap"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/39484238
Shadow sports minister Dr Rosena Allin-Khan called on the Football Association to get involved.
"This is disgraceful. David Moyes cannot get away with these sexist threats - the FA must take action immediately,"
Huh? How is it sexist?
Moyes said the reporter "might get a slap even though you're a woman"
Surely he is being very even-handed by offering slaps to both men and women?
(He shouldn't have said it all, but that's a different point).
But I still don't think it was malevolent as such to stay on for the vote of no confidence. A few days makes no difference in the big scheme of things and the vote provided a very clear result: something we wouldn't have known otherwise and which the left in particular would have disputed.
I don't think the vote - had its results been effected - would have damaged Labour. Most people would have forgotten about it now, were a capable new leader in place. Had it damaged Corbyn, well, so what? It'd be a personal hit rather than a party one.
Or the inherently sexist (and ironically named) Women and Equalities Committee.
Or looking at horrendous racism, such as people tweeting that white people like to 'divide and rule'...
Or we could go crazy, and actually try prosecuting someone for FGM.
Name me a more popular manhole-inspecting jam enthusiast!
55 points behind May
IN LONDON.
Le Pen 25% Macron 24% Fillon 19% Melenchon 15% Hamon 11%
http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1
* Tory 2015 vote very stable: 90%+ staying with party
* Labour is holding about 70% of its 2015 vote. It is shedding Leavers to Con and Ukip, and Remainers to the Lib Dems, at the same time
* The Lib Dems' 2015 vote was mostly Remain, and that portion is looking firm. About a quarter were Leavers and some of those have peeled off to Labour or the Tories
* Ukip has shed about one third of its 2015 voters to the Tories
Beyond that, the usual horrible splits apply for Labour. Labour is behind amongst all age groups except 18-24, all social classes, all groups arranged by working status except the jobless, and in all geographic regions except Wales. The vote share in the Midlands (23%) is awful, they're only at 20% in the South because ICM don't separate out London, and they're at 12% for Scotland but I suppose we expect little better from that quarter nowadays.
The Tories outpoll Labour 61:12 amongst all pensioners, broadly consistent with recent YouGov findings, and are just short of 50% overall in England.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017_guardian_apr1_poll.pdf
Sending me this questionnaire is really a pretty bad idea for two reasons.
Firstly, I live in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, one of Labour's safest seats. Finding out what voters round here want won't help them much in the marginals where the election will be decided.
Secondly, despite my address I'm not actually a regular Labour voter, and there's little chance of me voting for them in 2020. I'm now tempted to return the survey with plausible wrong answers, Any reply suggesting Labour should privatise all the schools would presumably be discarded as obviously spurious, but if I said it should be Labour policy to withdraw from the all the remaining legacies of empire, like Cyprus, the Falkland and Gibraltar, Labour might be willing to believe that's what their voters in Sheffield want.