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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The signs are that UKIP will get a pasting in the May 4th elec
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The signs are that UKIP will get a pasting in the May 4th elections
For me this week is all about the May 4th elections. Yesterday the Tory psephologist, Lord Robert Hayward, gave his annual presentation and predictions and there’s a fair bit of coverage in today’s press.
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This could have been written by Boris Johnson or Quentin Letts. It's disappointing because if someone as even- handed as Richard can't take a more detached view then what chance do we have when the ultras of the Mail the Express and the Sun get the bit between their teeth.
If this is our opening gambit it'll end acrimoniously. Accusing the other side of bad faith without an attempt to see their point of view might cheer the right-wing of the Tory party and re-energise UKIP but there's a wider audience and it's no way to treat a loyal partner of 48 years.
They didn't ask for the divorce. They didn't kick us out. Every time I hear one of their spokespeople they sound measured and reasonable. Usually too reasonable. Treating them with distain and arrogance might be the British way but it doesn't look good and it'll more than likely end up costing us a fortune.
Hhhhmm ....
Beware honey traps Mike and ladies offering to look at your bar charts ....
Verhosftadt?
I agree Tusk has been reasonable - so has May, unfortunately the frothers on both sides seem to feel the need to indulge in willy waving.....the only remotely sensible UK newspaper at the moment is the Guardian - and that's just in the news section...
Happy to go along with Lord Hayward’s predictions, he’s proved himself a bit of a political guru in the past having accurately predicted both the GE2015 and Brexit result. That just leaves lost deposits to mull over, I’m predicting an easy victory for UKiP over the Lib Dems…
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/04/03/why-smug-snp-sanctimony-means-its-love-in-with-eu-will-soon-be-over/
These are early days, but, contrary to the press reports, Donald Tusk’s draft EU27 negotiating mandate, circulated (and leaked) in response to the Prime Minister’s Article 50 letter, actually gives us reasons to be optimistic that a mutually beneficial deal can and will be found.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/04/christopher-howarths-guide-to-brexit-beneath-the-rhetoric-the-eu27-are-being-surprisingly-constructive.html
There are 1223 Councillors in Scotland. 20% of the vote, on a system that is largely proportional, gives them 244, a loss of 150. In Scotland alone. It is possible that Labour's vote will remain more efficient but this is at the margins. Last time 31.39% of first preferences got them 32.2% of the seats. The reverse is actually more likely in that the electoral system punishes smaller parties. Last time the Tories got 9.4% of the seats on 13.27% of the vote.
Mike speculates that Labour might lose Glasgow. I would say that is absolutely nailed on. In fact I do not expect them to retain outright control of a single Scottish Council and they will lose control of others such as Fife where they are currently the biggest single party.
So unless Lord Heyward is anticipating some net gains for Labour in England (and I do think they will pick up some UKIP seats) his numbers are, well, optimistic from a Labour perspective.
http://labourlist.org/2017/04/new-shadow-cabinet-resignation-triggers-mini-reshuffle-for-corbyn/
Voting Intention: +11%
Best Prime Minister: +34%
http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/scalefit_630_noupscale/58e289141400005b65073081.jpeg
So in 2012, Con on 13% of vote got 111 councillors, and Lab in 2017 are on ±14% - but are defending 383 seats...of course there won't be a direct read-across - but if there were they'd be down about 250.....
Full article:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyns-labour-on-course-to-lose-125-council-seats-as-snp-tories-and-lib-dems-make-gains-hayward-forecast_uk_58e27e30e4b03a26a364d645
Bruselas y Holanda piden a Reino Unido que rebaje el tono sobre Gibraltar
http://elpais.com/internacional/2017/04/03/actualidad/1491217660_217049.html
Don't know if it has been mentioned in the UK, but David Davis apparently had a friendly and constructive dinner in Madrid on Sunday with the Spanish foreign minister.
The 5th largest economy and strongest legal system in the world. I think we'll cope.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_government_in_Scotland#Election_results.2C_2012
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21657655-oxbridge-one-direction-and-premier-league-bolster-britains-power-persuade-softly-does-it
We throw it away at our peril. Once it is gone, it will be incredibly hard to get back. I was in China last week and the level of amused bemusement I encountered around Brexit is something I have been getting used to. Press headlines about making Europe less safe in order to get a better trade deal and going to war with Spain are going to turn that amusement into something a lot more sinister.
One of the most baffling responses is how opponents, largely a lefty metropolitan liberal elite, have responded against, it despite it being more rhetorical than real, more for domestic consumption than international afairs, and that is is demonstratively popular.
The left are ashamed of nation states. And it is hurting them massively. They would rather signal internationalist virtue than identity with those who have traditionally voted for them.
Somewheres will trump nowheres every time. Why can the left not see this?
One interesting theory I saw on one of the Letters Pages was that after the IndyRef was lost, and Independence was 'off the table for a generation' Labour voters could switch to SNP without fear of going through IndyRef again - now IndyRef2 is on the horizon, to what extent might that unwind?
Oh, wait.
I have a suspicion the headline writer would have preferred:
The HOPES are that UKIP....
Their raison d'etre was achieved, the loss of a few council seats will upset nobody.
As is aye the case with the Scottish Nationalists, things were going well until facts had to come along and spoil it all.
Is there any betting on the seat gain/loss estimates for the locals? Or Scotland alone?
Oh look - a Nat engaging with the facts
Oh, wait.
despite the way Scotland voted in the EU referendum, attitudes north of the border towards the shape of Brexit are not so different after all.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2017/03/what-do-voters-in-scotland-want-from-brexit/
I try to make widen a political debate with observation on failed policies of internationalism - which fails those people that I care about, and that I truly believe you do too, because of huge competition at the lower end of the wage scale - and you just shake your head and say that you don't like it because you think it makes us look nasty.
And you wonder why the left is losing...
Edit: Although I disagree with the author about the EU being prepared to discount the exit payment away. They are serious about that. Their reason for having it at the start is to make sure it happens. His other points are right, in my view
I agree with the basis of the thread header. The only potential positive aspect I can see for UKIP is that by being neither in government nor in a party nominally led by Corbyn they could benefit from being None of the Above.
PS : May's pickpocketing of widow's bereavement payments is a prime example of their direction. Poor houses will soon be on the agenda with this mob, will be work for nothing to start with.
Brexit never would have got near a majority if people had thought it would mean a smaller economy, esta-visas to travel abroad, more expensive flights and travel insurance, potentially even the break-up of the UK, just to get a blue passport, a pint, and being able to buy food weighed in ounces.
Seriously, you think I need to even try to win that argument? It was lost by the left in Blair's 2nd and 3rd terms.
And you wonder why the Lib Dems are on 10%....
I think that on issues relating to national identity, it's to the Right of the political consensus from 1990-2015.
Scottish First Minister in the US signing climate change pacts.
British Prime Minister in Saudi Arabia selling weapons.
In the 21st century world, influence matters a lot more than sovereignty (just as, in the modern workplace, effective collaboration now matters as much as individual effectiveness). IMO the young have cottoned onto this a lot faster than us oldies, which explains a lot.
In fact being pro-Europe was the mainstream Conservative position for decades. This has now been overturned by a sustained campaign from radicals with a blinkered view of sovereignty that is focussed elusively on the position of the Westminster parliament.
Central banks are dumping euros amid concerns over political instability, weak growth and the European Central Bank’s negative interest rate policy — and favour sterling as a long-term, stable alternative.
Despite uncertainty over Brexit — formally triggered last week by prime minister Theresa May — central bankers from around the world see the UK as a safer prospect for their reserve investments than the eurozone, a new poll reveals.
https://www.ft.com/content/692768f4-17a3-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87
However those comparisons are trite, since like Brexit they ignore the rest of the world. Of course no-one would mind being 20% better off if their neighbours and colleagues are also 20% better off. But achieving a smaller improvement in living standards, compounded year after year, than your neighbours is another thing entirely. What prompted our EC membership application in the first place was the feeling that the late60s/e70s UK was being left behind by the economic strides being made on the continent at the time. If that position slowly reoccurs the colour of the passport will be academic, as far fewer people will be able to afford to use one.
Why, ed m could be labour leader.
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/849158165153427456