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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two seats which UKIP won last time amongst tonight’s local ele
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two seats which UKIP won last time amongst tonight’s local elections
Elmhurst on Aylesbury Vale (UKIP defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservative 43, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 4, Labour 2, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 27) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats 729, 652 (26%) United Kingdom Independence Party 666, 567 (23%) Labour 632, 516 (22%) Conservatives 604, 496 (21%) Green Party 220, 131 (8%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 52,877 (49.5%), LEAVE 53,956 (50.5%) on a turnout of 78% Candidates duly nominated: Nigel Foster (Green), Phil Gomm (UKIP), Susan Morgan (Lib Dem), Gary Paxton (Lab), Ammer Raheel (Con) Weather at close of polls: Cloudy, but dry 10°C Estimate: Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP (Lib Dem 37%, Con 24%, Lab 21%, UKIP 13%, Green 5%)
Comments
Mrs C, don't be sad. Two out of three ain't bad.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-06/gop-begins-nuclear-rule-move-to-advance-trump-high-court-pick
Can we expect Quentin Davies next ?
'Certainly, Mr O'Reilly' said the barman "That'll be a euro!'
'That's very reasonable" said O'Leary.
'It is" said the barman. 'Cheapest in Dublin. Will you be wanting it in a glass?'
Caligula is Latin for 'little boot' [small military sandal, to be more accurate]. His actual name was Gaius. The nickname came from when he was a boy and dressed up in miniature military gear.
Two Meatloaf references in three days? You spoil us, Sir!
https://www.nedbd-libdems.com/news/alcoholic-drinks-historical-gesture/
Plenty of money pissed away on other stuff too.
Say it ain't so, Joe!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/06/theresa-may-meets-donald-tusk-brexit-talks-downing-street/
If Spain and the EU really start to push that when negotiations start properly in the Summer there must be a risk of a breakdown in talks happening virtually straight the way.
I think there's a real risk we could be out the EU in trading under WTO rules by September?
Do you remember Black Tuesday? A perfect storm hit Woking commuters. As part of the re-development of Woking the Council has had to almost close the town centre to traffic*. At the same time utility companies paying out money in dividends, instead of investing in renewing their infrastructure, have water and gas pipes breaking all over town. Then, sadly, there were people hit by a train.
That's right, because Surrey County Council is responsible for railway suicides. The utility companies have been making a dog's breakfast of the works on our estate, but I'm not sure it should make much difference in terms of redeveloping Woking. As ever with these things, the first day is chaos but once everyone gets used to the new situation, people make alternative plans and things run smoothly.
The one thing the Lib Dems have going for them at this election is the social care situation. But even on that they aren't putting forward their plans for funding it.
* I'd have thought that would be bliss to the Lib Dems!
This is above all a good reason why May can't afford for the talks to break down, because otherwise managing the domestic politics of being in purgatory for nearly 2 years would be impossible.
...actually, on second thoughts hold that idea..
https://twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/792434351879389184
Norfolk 2013 result
Con 40 Lab 14 LD 10 UKIP 15 Green 4 Ind 1
No boundary changes
My forecast
Con 47 Lab 17 LD 13 UKIP 2 Green 3 Ind 2
North Yorks 2013 result
Con 45 Lab 7 LD 8 UKIP 2 Liberal 2 Ind 8
No boundary changes
My forecast
Con 43 Lab 6 LD 11 UKIP 1 Liberal 1 Ind 10
Kent 2013 result
Con 45 Lab 13 LD 7 UKIP 17 Green 1 Ind 1
boundary changes 3 seats fewer Con minus 2 UKIP minus 1 new notional 2013 result
Con 43 Lab 13 LD 7 UKIP 16 Green 1 Ind 1
My forecast
Con 54 Lab 11 LD 9 UKIP 5 Green 1 Ind 1
Glos 2013 result
Con 23 Lab 9 LD 14 UKIP 3 Green 1 Ind/Others 3
No boundary changes
My forecast
Con 24 Lab 9 LD 17 UKIP 0 Green 1 Ind/Others 2
East Sussex 2013 result
Con 20 Lab 7 LD 10 UKIP 7 Ind/Others 5
No boundary changes
My forecast
Con 26 Lab 6 LD 12 UKIP 0 Ind/Others 5
Derbyshire 2013 result
Con 18 Lab 43 LD 3
No boundary changes
My forecast
Con 24 Lab 34 LD 6
Works for me!
Normally a fairly safe ward for Labour, but who knows these days.
Better than a two-faced Janus who speaks for restricting immigration to get votes and then seeks free movement in office.
But Picardo is Socialist Labour so it'd probably be Labour with the LibDems and Conservatives battling for second.
Graham Watson had a massive local public following when he was LD MEP for here - mostly because our local paper (The Chronic) was so far up his arse it could pick the meat out of his dentures. But don't mistake his personal vote for a UK party one.
Most people weren't voting to get "control" over immigration, only to then use that control to make no changes. They were voting for substantially less immigration.
Worcs CC 2013 result
Con 30 Lab 12 LD 3 UKIP 4 Green 2 ICHC 2 Liberal 1 Ind/Others 3
No boundary changes
My forecast
Con 31 Lab 10 LD 7 UKIP 0 Green 2 ICHC 2 Ind/Others 5
Suffolk 2013 result
Con 39 Lab 15 LD 7 UKIP 9 Green 2 Ind 3
No boundary changes
My forecast
Con 41 Lab 14 LD 10 UKIP 2 Green 4 Ind 4
Hants 2013 result
Con 45 Lab 4 LD 17 UKIP 10 Ind/Others 2
Boundary changes Con lose 1 seat LD gain 1 seat notional result
Con 44 Lab 4 LD 18 UKIP 10 Ind/Others 2
My forecast
Con 45 Lab 4 LD 26 UKIP 0 Ind/Others 3
It is bad enough having to work while others have their fun, but then to be told you can't take your child away for a week's vacation when its your turn for a break once others have returned to work and you can now finally take a break? Be reasonable!
IMO, the main reason that so many Kippers have gone back to the Tories since the referendum is precisely because they think May's going to get a big cut in numbers of immigrants as soon as we're officially Out.
She was also - well, stalked may be a bit strong but about covers it - by Jim Steinman. He said Meatloaf had recommended her to work on Bat Out Of Hell 2. She went out for dinner with Jim - commenting that the restaurant was very quiet. To be told he had booked the whole restaurant. So they wouldn't be disturbed.
And when she asked for a menu, he said he had had already ordered. Everything on the menu....duly turned up on a series of trolleys...
So she ran away from a mighty lucrative record. No regrets though.
Admittedly, negotiations have not started yet, so it is all posturing at the moment. But if the EU does not come off some of its positions, then I'll be quickly back to arguing for just leave, no negotiations.
It is a ridiculous situation whereby parents have an entitlement to 5.6 weeks off per year but not one of those days is fixed (some businesses are open 365 days a year), while students get 0 flexible days off per year.
Getting the basis for the future relationship right from the start may cost us in the short term, but is far better in the longer term than settling for a one-sided relationship. That, to me, is not just cutting off one's nose, it is selling yourself into servitude.
Second, even on those figures, 29% is a pretty good target pool for UKIP, by their standards.
I think the chances of there not being a deal that at least carries us twelve months forward up to 29 March 2020 are pretty slim.All the major players have an interest in doing a deal.