Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is organisation more than BREXIT that is driving the Lib De

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is organisation more than BREXIT that is driving the Lib Dem resurgence

The latest local by elections with an LD gain from UKIP on a whopping 26% swing top off what has been a good week for the LDs. Firstly there have been the Rallings/Thrasher and Lord Robert Hayward May elections’ projection suggesting that the yellows are in for a substantial number of gains on May 4th.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited April 2017
    First like Farron!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Second like Remain!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Now we know why May chickened out of a snap election which many MPs were clamouring for. There is the Crosby poll which sent shivers through Downing Street.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    FPT: Miss Vance, he narrated the audiobooks of The Warlord Chronicles, by Bernard Cornwell (for my money, the best thing Cornwell's written, which I've read).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    I find organisation for the May locals to be a little lacking from the LDs, in contrast, though that they've managed a full slate in Cornwall speaks well of the ones over there.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    I agree with OGH and Mr Kirkup - Brexit is a factor, but the cockroach like (wish there was a happier metaphor!) ability to survive is one of the Lib Dems 'secret weapons'.

    Interesting question for the Tories come 2020 (and possibly in by-elections sooner) - if they lack the local organisation, will they be as ready to fling bus loads of activists at marginals, given the scrutiny they'll now come under......
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    They've still only got 8 MPs though. Taxi!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    GeoffM said:

    They've still only got 8 MPs though. Taxi!

    9 MPs!

    Can Gorton get them back up to double figures?!?!?

    No.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    GeoffM said:

    They've still only got 8 MPs though. Taxi!

    I think you will find that it is 9. Richmond Park remember when Zac's 23k majority was over-turned.

    No other party is showing a net increase in seats held since GE2015
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    GeoffM said:

    They've still only got 8 MPs though. Taxi!

    Nine.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    I agree with OGH and Mr Kirkup - Brexit is a factor, but the cockroach like (wish there was a happier metaphor!) ability to survive is one of the Lib Dems 'secret weapons'.

    Interesting question for the Tories come 2020 (and possibly in by-elections sooner) - if they lack the local organisation, will they be as ready to fling bus loads of activists at marginals, given the scrutiny they'll now come under......

    It really depends on whether Michael Crick takes early retirement.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I keep on saying: do not write-off Lib Dem chances in Gorton.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    FPT:

    kle4 said:


    Do PBers believe that the US, which on issues such as LGBT rights has swung a more liberal way - will go towards a more socially conservative direction, despite the fact Generation Xers and Millenials seem to have more liberal attitudes/politics? http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/20/a-wider-partisan-and-ideological-gap-between-younger-older-generations/

    It may be unfair, as someone with no knowledge of american jurisprudence and scant knowledge of american culture, to comment, but I would assume to a certain degree, yes, since if reporting is any indication the justices usually vote upon very clear and predictable lines outside of a few issues, so if one of a certain bent is elected you know if they can they will move in certain directions as a whole, but it may not be as extreme as some fear/hope.

    Not always, though. Chief Justice Roberts - a conservative - was the swing vote that kept Obamacare alive. SCOTUS does have the capacity to surprise, but you'd expect it to come down in favour of states rights and a literal reading of the constitution more often than not given its line up.

    Gorusch was not someone to go to war over. The Democrats should have waved him through. They need to win the Senate next year, now, in order to prevent the conservative bias on SCOTUS getting very pronounced indeed.
    Kennedy has also ruled in favour of abortion rights and on same-sex marriage, too. This is an interesting piece re Gorsuch, Garland and criminal justice http://reason.com/blog/2017/04/04/on-criminal-justice-and-executive-branch

    I think the Democrats filibustered because of the base (who, looking at twitter are VERY anti-Gorsuch - they see him as anti-woman and a Scalia clone among many other things) and the Senate Committee Hearings, with Gorsuch dodging quite a few questions which I think was the trigger which led to such Democrat opposition.

    Talking to SeanF recently on here, he doesn't seem to think the Dems can take back the Senate. So they are going to have to pray that Kennedy doesn't retire, that Ginsburg (who is pretty old now) doesn't die, and that Beyer doesn't retire/die either.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    This sounds very familiar. We were told before 2015 that the Lib Dems would outperform their polling and that incumbency would count for a lot in their seats.

    Now I agree with what @rcs1000 has been saying about the polling companies having to push down the number of 2015 Lib Dem voters, but when it comes to it, I think a lot of the South West will return a Tory again. What will help the Lib Dems in these seats is the perception that the Tories will win and, at the very least, be the largest party in a hung parliament.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Is there actually any evidence that links leaflets stuck through letter boxes to increased vote share? We had a leaflet from the Lib Dems yesterday and its transition from letter box to recycling bin was seamless, ditto one today from some other party. Pavement pounding and leafleting strikes me as being a waste of time and paper.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    Is there actually any evidence that links leaflets stuck through letter boxes to increased vote share? We had a leaflet from the Lib Dems yesterday and its transition from letter box to recycling bin was seamless, ditto one today from some other party. Pavement pounding and leafleting strikes me as being a waste of time and paper.

    I assume that at worst it can help a little, perhaps enough to push you over the edge in tight contests. Certainly one factor in my 2015 vote was the LDs put in more effort than anyone else. One factor of many, but in tight contests I can see it making a difference.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    surbiton said:

    Now we know why May chickened out of a snap election which many MPs were clamouring for. There is the Crosby poll which sent shivers through Downing Street.

    So reminiscent of Brown.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    FPT:

    kle4 said:


    Do PBers believe that the US, which on issues such as LGBT rights has swung a more liberal way - will go towards a more socially conservative direction, despite the fact Generation Xers and Millenials seem to have more liberal attitudes/politics? http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/20/a-wider-partisan-and-ideological-gap-between-younger-older-generations/

    It may be unfair, as someone with no knowledge of american jurisprudence and scant knowledge of american culture, to comment, but I would assume to a certain degree, yes, since if reporting is any indication the justices usually vote upon very clear and predictable lines outside of a few issues, so if one of a certain bent is elected you know if they can they will move in certain directions as a whole, but it may not be as extreme as some fear/hope.

    Not always, though. Chief Justice Roberts - a conservative - was the swing vote that kept Obamacare alive. SCOTUS does have the capacity to surprise, but you'd expect it to come down in favour of states rights and a literal reading of the constitution more often than not given its line up.

    Gorusch was not someone to go to war over. The Democrats should have waved him through. They need to win the Senate next year, now, in order to prevent the conservative bias on SCOTUS getting very pronounced indeed.
    Kennedy has also ruled in favour of abortion rights and on same-sex marriage, too.
    Many times.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited April 2017
    Off topic:

    A purely price based exercise:

    Bet365 are doing a genuinely fantastic National offer - 1/2 stakes back, 5 places and also an enhanced 6 place market (Though slightly reduced prices on this market)

    Anyway taking Betfair midpoint prices as "correct", I make the following value :

    29 Vicente @ 25-1 (5 places)
    17 Definitely Red @ 11-1 (6 places)
    2 More of that @ 11-1 (6 places)
    34 Rogue Angel @ 25-1 (5 places)
    28 Saint Are @ 40-1 (5 places)
    10 Blaklion @ 14-1 (5 places)



    With the half stakes back you can EXPECT to come out ahead (If Betfair is correct), obviously it is a horse race so VARIANCE is high !


  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic:

    A purely price based exercise:

    Bet365 are doing a genuinely fantastic National offer - 1/2 stakes back, 5 places and also an enhanced 6 place market (Though slightly reduced prices on this market)

    Anyway taking Betfair midpoint prices as "correct", I make the following value :

    29 Vicente @ 25-1 (5 places)
    17 Definitely Red @ 11-1 (6 places)
    2 More of that @ 11-1 (6 places)
    34 Rogue Angel @ 25-1 (5 places)
    28 Saint Are @ 40-1 (5 places)
    10 Blaklion @ 14-1 (5 places)



    With the half stakes back you can EXPECT to come out ahead (If Betfair is correct), obviously it is a horse race so VARIANCE is high !


    NB existing customers only and you have to get on by noon tomorrow
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    kle4 said:

    Is there actually any evidence that links leaflets stuck through letter boxes to increased vote share? We had a leaflet from the Lib Dems yesterday and its transition from letter box to recycling bin was seamless, ditto one today from some other party. Pavement pounding and leafleting strikes me as being a waste of time and paper.

    I assume that at worst it can help a little, perhaps enough to push you over the edge in tight contests. Certainly one factor in my 2015 vote was the LDs put in more effort than anyone else. One factor of many, but in tight contests I can see it making a difference.
    Leaners give credit to the party who they think have "tried hard".
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Is there actually any evidence that links leaflets stuck through letter boxes to increased vote share? We had a leaflet from the Lib Dems yesterday and its transition from letter box to recycling bin was seamless, ditto one today from some other party. Pavement pounding and leafleting strikes me as being a waste of time and paper.

    Well at least you know the Lib Dems have delivered a leaflet to you so it has had some impact . How much impact it has is , I agree , a subject for debate . .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    FWIW, I don't think the Lib Dems would clean up all the 2015GE Tory gains unless the Tories were on course to lose power nationally.

    Twickenham, Kingston and Bath, yes. Chippenham, Taunton Deane and Wells, no.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Hmm. Why is none of this showing up in the national polling? The explanation of better organisation at a local level sounds right. I think we will need to see much more progress on May 4th before the Tories panic too much. Most of the majorities in the ex Lib Dem seats are large and the Tories are up more nationally than the Lib Dems.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    kle4 said:


    Do PBers believe that the US, which on issues such as LGBT rights has swung a more liberal way - will go towards a more socially conservative direction, despite the fact Generation Xers and Millenials seem to have more liberal attitudes/politics? http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/20/a-wider-partisan-and-ideological-gap-between-younger-older-generations/

    It may be unfair, as someone with no knowledge of american jurisprudence and scant knowledge of american culture, to comment, but I would assume to a certain degree, yes, since if reporting is any indication the justices usually vote upon very clear and predictable lines outside of a few issues, so if one of a certain bent is elected you know if they can they will move in certain directions as a whole, but it may not be as extreme as some fear/hope.

    Not always, though. Chief Justice Roberts - a conservative - was the swing vote that kept Obamacare alive. SCOTUS does have the capacity to surprise, but you'd expect it to come down in favour of states rights and a literal reading of the constitution more often than not given its line up.

    Gorusch was not someone to go to war over. The Democrats should have waved him through. They need to win the Senate next year, now, in order to prevent the conservative bias on SCOTUS getting very pronounced indeed.
    Kennedy has also ruled in favour of abortion rights and on same-sex marriage, too.
    Many times.
    It's a great shame that he's so old now. He's probably the closest to the centre of all the justices on SCOTUS.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,744
    Evening all :)

    Oh dear, an opportunity for all those who don't like the LDs to slag them off. Whether Llama's antics are typical or atypical remains to be seen.

    It's valid to ask how Conservative controlled County Councils have been performing (and in Cornwall an LD-Indy coalition) and to criticise that performance.

    Listening to some on here, you'd thinking voting (or even thinking about voting) anyone other than the Conservative Party candidate is an act of treason or blasphemy (or both).

    I said earlier winning Cornwall is a big ask for the LDs - the losses of 2009 (especially) and 2013 will take more than one attempt to eradicate there and elsewhere. My expectation would be more about making gains than taking Councils as the Conservatives are boosted by the collapse of UKIP.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    kle4 said:

    GeoffM said:

    They've still only got 8 MPs though. Taxi!

    9 MPs!

    Can Gorton get them back up to double figures?!?!?

    No.
    You were the only unexpected bite.
    I was hoping to get Senior but he was obviously napping.
    Looks like he is awake now though.
    Game on!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited April 2017
    On the LDs, the Tories don't much have to panic about. I think LD gains from the Tories (if they happen) will be limited, and the Tories will likely pick up seats that are currently Labour to make up for any losses.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    LDs certainly seem to be doing great things in council elections etc.

    However as they have no ability to mount any sort of media campaign they're not going anywhere just yet.

    They have a sort of half-Corbyn figure in Farron. He's awful as a possible PM, but he is perhaps great as a rallying force behind the scenes. (Corbyn of course is awful at both)

    They also have an issue with their prior stars - Clegg has become a frothing Euro-loon, and I say this as someone that likes him personally.

    David Milliband has been matched as short as 10s on BF to be next PM - that's insane, but not if you realise how empty the middle ground is. Farron's LD's certainly arent't there.

    A sane, and taller, LD leader has the chance to do something remarkable. The same applies to a centrist breakaway Labour faction. However I hope that the Tories can fight off whoever throws their hats into the ring - they have the benefit of the right end of the argument.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited April 2017
    @TIssue_Price It is rare that offers are open to existing, rather than new customers. 365's national one is great.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,744
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic:

    A purely price based exercise:

    Bet365 are doing a genuinely fantastic National offer - 1/2 stakes back, 5 places and also an enhanced 6 place market (Though slightly reduced prices on this market)

    Anyway taking Betfair midpoint prices as "correct", I make the following value :

    29 Vicente @ 25-1 (5 places)
    17 Definitely Red @ 11-1 (6 places)
    2 More of that @ 11-1 (6 places)
    34 Rogue Angel @ 25-1 (5 places)
    28 Saint Are @ 40-1 (5 places)
    10 Blaklion @ 14-1 (5 places)



    With the half stakes back you can EXPECT to come out ahead (If Betfair is correct), obviously it is a horse race so VARIANCE is high !


    I don't have a strong view on the race and am worried the warmth and drying ground may cause some problems as they have before.

    I think there's a big argument for moving the race to the end of February but the traditionalists aren't interested.

    I've backed SAPHIR DU RHEU e/w at 25/1. I like horses that have run well in the Gold Cup coming on to Aintree. There's a query over stamina but there is about a number of the fancied horses but he jumps well and goes on the ground.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    @Pulpstar Surely everything is value with half your stakes back?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Agree with the thread header - the May election should be a better guide to underlying strength as the LibDem Potemkin army can't be everywhere at once. But it would be odd if they weren't doing quite well, with the Tories firmly on the right, UKIP is semi-dissolution, and Labour, um, suboptimally preoccupied.

    BTW, apologies for mixing up the figures on the last thread for a hypothetical Macron-Melanchon matchup - Macron led by 57-43 in that case, rather than trailing by that about.

    I think that Le Pen is completely toast but I'm starting to think that her opponent is not quite so certain, and Macron's current 1.7ish seems about right. Laying her rather than backing him seems sensible.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    I think there must be a vastly different emphasis from party to party on local elections.

    UKIP are quite a new party and grew pretty big very quickly after 2010. Most of their activists (I guess I was one) have probably been at it less than five years, and have already seen the big prize won, plus a couple of high profile by elections and the Euros. I can only speak for myself, but the appeal of pounding the streets so UKIP gain control of Hacton Ward in Hornchurch isn't really that strong now we are leaving the EU. Lib Dems probably have thousands of veterans that have been campaigning on locals for years and so still get fired up for them
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    @TIssue_Price It is rare that offers are open to existing, rather than new customers. 365's national one is great.

    It is a mixture of giving something back plus also trying to spread the website demand throughout the day.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic:

    A purely price based exercise:

    Bet365 are doing a genuinely fantastic National offer - 1/2 stakes back, 5 places and also an enhanced 6 place market (Though slightly reduced prices on this market)

    Anyway taking Betfair midpoint prices as "correct", I make the following value :

    29 Vicente @ 25-1 (5 places)
    17 Definitely Red @ 11-1 (6 places)
    2 More of that @ 11-1 (6 places)
    34 Rogue Angel @ 25-1 (5 places)
    28 Saint Are @ 40-1 (5 places)
    10 Blaklion @ 14-1 (5 places)



    With the half stakes back you can EXPECT to come out ahead (If Betfair is correct), obviously it is a horse race so VARIANCE is high !


    Ha! Just realised these are bloody horses!

    With the French names I imagined that they were side markets on the French Presidency.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    @Pulpstar Surely everything is value with half your stakes back?

    Of course, but I make these horses THE MOST value :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    On the LDs, the Tories don't much have to panic about. I think LD gains from the Tories (if they happen) will be limited, and the Tories will likely pick up seats that are currently Labour to make up for any losses.

    Well various projections do have the Cons gaining overall, although in a lot of areas there's not really many Lab for Con to take in this set.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    @Pulpstar - Thanks for that, I do have an account and have gone for Definitely Red, Blacklion, Rogue Angel and Saint Are.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    On the LDs, the Tories don't much have to panic about. I think LD gains from the Tories (if they happen) will be limited, and the Tories will likely pick up seats that are currently Labour to make up for any losses.

    Well various projections do have the Cons gaining overall, although in a lot of areas there's not really many Lab for Con to take in this set.
    Hmmm. In that case, where are the Tories gaining? There aren't that many possible gains from the LDs, given that the LDs have been hammered in previous local elections.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    kle4 said:

    On the LDs, the Tories don't much have to panic about. I think LD gains from the Tories (if they happen) will be limited, and the Tories will likely pick up seats that are currently Labour to make up for any losses.

    Well various projections do have the Cons gaining overall, although in a lot of areas there's not really many Lab for Con to take in this set.
    I don't agree, there are plenty of Labour seats for the Tories to gain in these local elections.

    Labour defence list:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=0
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Pulpstar said:

    @TIssue_Price It is rare that offers are open to existing, rather than new customers. 365's national one is great.

    It is a mixture of giving something back plus also trying to spread the website demand throughout the day.
    More like they're trying to persuade their more regular customers to see some value somewhere in a 40 - horse handicapped steeplechase!

    Or possibly not notice the huge over-round on the market (I'm guessing here).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    kle4 said:

    On the LDs, the Tories don't much have to panic about. I think LD gains from the Tories (if they happen) will be limited, and the Tories will likely pick up seats that are currently Labour to make up for any losses.

    Well various projections do have the Cons gaining overall, although in a lot of areas there's not really many Lab for Con to take in this set.
    Hmmm. In that case, where are the Tories gaining? There aren't that many possible gains from the LDs, given that the LDs have been hammered in previous local elections.
    Mark Senior will have a better idea, but my pure guess is some Lab, Ind and most of the UKIP (although we do know from last night and others that sometimes UKIP seats go to others than Con). But to take Wiltshire as an example, there's only 4 Lab seats up for grabs (gaining any others would be very surprising).

    Wales I guess there's more Lab to take, I might have been a bit England centric.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    AndyJS said:

    kle4 said:

    On the LDs, the Tories don't much have to panic about. I think LD gains from the Tories (if they happen) will be limited, and the Tories will likely pick up seats that are currently Labour to make up for any losses.

    Well various projections do have the Cons gaining overall, although in a lot of areas there's not really many Lab for Con to take in this set.
    I don't agree, there are plenty of Labour seats for the Tories to gain in these local elections.
    I was thinking mostly of England, as I was thinking of all those shire counties, but I'll retract if you say otherwise.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    I'm really not sure how many seats* the Libs can win back in spite of this. Some swung on huge majorities. Some are in Brexitland. Some are simply trending Tory demographically and house build wise.

    Getting up to 14 would be a serious achievement for them. 20 might make MarkSenior even more excitable...
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Agree with the thread header - the May election should be a better guide to underlying strength as the LibDem Potemkin army can't be everywhere at once. But it would be odd if they weren't doing quite well, with the Tories firmly on the right, UKIP is semi-dissolution, and Labour, um, suboptimally preoccupied.

    BTW, apologies for mixing up the figures on the last thread for a hypothetical Macron-Melanchon matchup - Macron led by 57-43 in that case, rather than trailing by that about.

    I think that Le Pen is completely toast but I'm starting to think that her opponent is not quite so certain, and Macron's current 1.7ish seems about right. Laying her rather than backing him seems sensible.

    I thought you were going to be standing for Labour in one of the Broxtowe wards this year
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Belgium DROPS terror charges against Tunisian man 'who drove a car loaded with an assault rifle and knives into a crowd' in Antwerp

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4390480/Belgium-DROPS-terror-charges-against-Tunisian-man.html

    He was clearly just popping in town...by popping into town I mean driving to a different country.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,744
    Omnium said:

    LDs certainly seem to be doing great things in council elections etc.

    However as they have no ability to mount any sort of media campaign they're not going anywhere just yet.

    They have a sort of half-Corbyn figure in Farron. He's awful as a possible PM, but he is perhaps great as a rallying force behind the scenes. (Corbyn of course is awful at both)

    They also have an issue with their prior stars - Clegg has become a frothing Euro-loon, and I say this as someone that likes him personally.

    David Milliband has been matched as short as 10s on BF to be next PM - that's insane, but not if you realise how empty the middle ground is. Farron's LD's certainly arent't there.

    A sane, and taller, LD leader has the chance to do something remarkable. The same applies to a centrist breakaway Labour faction. However I hope that the Tories can fight off whoever throws their hats into the ring - they have the benefit of the right end of the argument.

    Not quite sure why you are so negative about Tim Farron. He's widely liked among LD activists and at the moment for the Party it's about re-building not about being a potential alternative Government.

    He shares Paddy Ashdown's energy and enthusiasm and there are clear parallels between the State of the Party in 1989 and 2015. After the merger debacle, Paddy spent the next three years re-building the base and Farron is trying to do something similar.

    The Conservatives aren't going to be able to square the circle of being all things to all people indefinitely and the day they lose power they will be as relevant as UKIP are now.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Agree with the thread header - the May election should be a better guide to underlying strength as the LibDem Potemkin army can't be everywhere at once. But it would be odd if they weren't doing quite well, with the Tories firmly on the right, UKIP is semi-dissolution, and Labour, um, suboptimally preoccupied.

    BTW, apologies for mixing up the figures on the last thread for a hypothetical Macron-Melanchon matchup - Macron led by 57-43 in that case, rather than trailing by that about.

    I think that Le Pen is completely toast but I'm starting to think that her opponent is not quite so certain, and Macron's current 1.7ish seems about right. Laying her rather than backing him seems sensible.

    Melenchon and Le Pen are now both on the same pro Putin pro Assad wavelength today after they opposed the US strikes while Macron supported intervention against Assad and Fillon said it was 'understandable' while Holland's also backed the strikes. That could make things interesting in the runoff, in some respects Melenchon and Le Pen voters have more in common with each other than Macron and Fillon voters
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Agree with the thread header - the May election should be a better guide to underlying strength as the LibDem Potemkin army can't be everywhere at once. But it would be odd if they weren't doing quite well, with the Tories firmly on the right, UKIP is semi-dissolution, and Labour, um, suboptimally preoccupied.

    BTW, apologies for mixing up the figures on the last thread for a hypothetical Macron-Melanchon matchup - Macron led by 57-43 in that case, rather than trailing by that about.

    I think that Le Pen is completely toast but I'm starting to think that her opponent is not quite so certain, and Macron's current 1.7ish seems about right. Laying her rather than backing him seems sensible.

    Le Pen hasn't had to do much to get to the final two.

    I'm conscious that she's under-performed before, and that the right have been under-estimated before. Macron is a maverick nutter - or at least that's how he'd have been judged in the past. French politics is insane at the moment - their 'conservatives' mostly live in the UK and as such vote with their hearts rather than their wallets.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Carlotta will be really hacked off that Nicola Sturgeon is going down a treat in New York. Look forward to her twisted bitter bile tomorrow.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Is there actually any evidence that links leaflets stuck through letter boxes to increased vote share? We had a leaflet from the Lib Dems yesterday and its transition from letter box to recycling bin was seamless, ditto one today from some other party. Pavement pounding and leafleting strikes me as being a waste of time and paper.

    Well at least you know the Lib Dems have delivered a leaflet to you so it has had some impact . How much impact it has is , I agree , a subject for debate . .
    I get loads of Lib Dem leaflets slagging the Tories in government but praising the local council.The Conservatives and Lib Dems are in coalition leading City of York council.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    edited April 2017
    stodge said:


    The Conservatives aren't going to be able to square the circle of being all things to all people indefinitely

    Hell of a thing for a former LD of all people to say!
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    malcolmg said:

    Carlotta will be really hacked off that Nicola Sturgeon is going down a treat in New York. Look forward to her twisted bitter bile tomorrow.

    Carlotta or Nicola?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    LDs certainly seem to be doing great things in council elections etc.

    However as they have no ability to mount any sort of media campaign they're not going anywhere just yet.

    They have a sort of half-Corbyn figure in Farron. He's awful as a possible PM, but he is perhaps great as a rallying force behind the scenes. (Corbyn of course is awful at both)

    They also have an issue with their prior stars - Clegg has become a frothing Euro-loon, and I say this as someone that likes him personally.

    David Milliband has been matched as short as 10s on BF to be next PM - that's insane, but not if you realise how empty the middle ground is. Farron's LD's certainly arent't there.

    A sane, and taller, LD leader has the chance to do something remarkable. The same applies to a centrist breakaway Labour faction. However I hope that the Tories can fight off whoever throws their hats into the ring - they have the benefit of the right end of the argument.

    Not quite sure why you are so negative about Tim Farron. He's widely liked among LD activists and at the moment for the Party it's about re-building not about being a potential alternative Government.

    He shares Paddy Ashdown's energy and enthusiasm and there are clear parallels between the State of the Party in 1989 and 2015. After the merger debacle, Paddy spent the next three years re-building the base and Farron is trying to do something similar.

    The Conservatives aren't going to be able to square the circle of being all things to all people indefinitely and the day they lose power they will be as relevant as UKIP are now.

    Have you ever listened to him, he is a twerp.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Corbyn's opposition to US strikes in Syria and Farron's support for them could have an impact in the Manchester Gorton by election given a 1/3 of the population is Muslim
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Urquhart, are they charging him with anything? Or is he free to go?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's opposition to US strikes in Syria and Farron's support for them could have an impact in the Manchester Gorton by election given a 1/3 of the population is Muslim

    In which way ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mortimer said:

    I'm really not sure how many seats* the Libs can win back in spite of this. Some swung on huge majorities. Some are in Brexitland. Some are simply trending Tory demographically and house build wise.

    Getting up to 14 would be a serious achievement for them. 20 might make MarkSenior even more excitable...

    We must all hope for the future of historic fine pie making that the electorate continue to cast a favourable eye on the yellow peril.

    If nothing else think of the children ................ making Mrs JackW's shoes and how they're paid for.
  • On Topic.
    To answer Mikes point, no. If organisation is the explanation then why the change ? Has Libdem organisation got a lot better, very quickly ?
    Currently, Labour claim more than 5 times as many members as The Libdems but it seems to be doing them no good at all. A huge salesforce is no use if your product is crap. Some voters, actually lots of voters quite like The Libdem brand - thats why their much smaller salesforce is taking market share.
    On the Polls, The Libdems have been going up for most of the last year, by around 1% every 3 Months; its painfully slow but it still adds up.Is it surprising that Polls often lag behind reality on the ground ? Most voters arent exposed to active politics except at Elections, they depend on the media who are only interested in splits & scandals. In Media terms The Libdems have no "story" to them at all.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Yorkcity said:

    Is there actually any evidence that links leaflets stuck through letter boxes to increased vote share? We had a leaflet from the Lib Dems yesterday and its transition from letter box to recycling bin was seamless, ditto one today from some other party. Pavement pounding and leafleting strikes me as being a waste of time and paper.

    Well at least you know the Lib Dems have delivered a leaflet to you so it has had some impact . How much impact it has is , I agree , a subject for debate . .
    I get loads of Lib Dem leaflets slagging the Tories in government but praising the local council.The Conservatives and Lib Dems are in coalition leading City of York council.
    In coalition? Like in 2015? Still, never mind, at least the Lib Dem won't fide their expenses to win.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    LDs certainly seem to be doing great things in council elections etc.

    However as they have no ability to mount any sort of media campaign they're not going anywhere just yet.

    They have a sort of half-Corbyn figure in Farron. He's awful as a possible PM, but he is perhaps great as a rallying force behind the scenes. (Corbyn of course is awful at both)

    They also have an issue with their prior stars - Clegg has become a frothing Euro-loon, and I say this as someone that likes him personally.

    David Milliband has been matched as short as 10s on BF to be next PM - that's insane, but not if you realise how empty the middle ground is. Farron's LD's certainly arent't there.

    A sane, and taller, LD leader has the chance to do something remarkable. The same applies to a centrist breakaway Labour faction. However I hope that the Tories can fight off whoever throws their hats into the ring - they have the benefit of the right end of the argument.

    Not quite sure why you are so negative about Tim Farron. He's widely liked among LD activists and at the moment for the Party it's about re-building not about being a potential alternative Government.

    He shares Paddy Ashdown's energy and enthusiasm and there are clear parallels between the State of the Party in 1989 and 2015. After the merger debacle, Paddy spent the next three years re-building the base and Farron is trying to do something similar.

    The Conservatives aren't going to be able to square the circle of being all things to all people indefinitely and the day they lose power they will be as relevant as UKIP are now.

    Well yes, you've just shown why he's doing one half of his job well. I've generally liked LD leaders, but I can't warm to Farron. That may of course be a really positive indicator for him.

    I'm sure that at times when the issues are big then the governments course becomes pretty clear. An opposition is more challenged in that it has to be more radical in order to seem different in the stronger tide.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's opposition to US strikes in Syria and Farron's support for them could have an impact in the Manchester Gorton by election given a 1/3 of the population is Muslim

    I think you would have to be pretty devoid of humanity to see the targeting of military assets as some kind of anti-Muslim agenda. The fact innocent children were killed by chemical weapons instigated by Assad absolves Trump and the US of any guilt IMO. I think Corbyn has made a mistake and this is the second time a Labour leader has let down innocent people in Syria. I doubt Corbyn will receive any further support for this stance as the Muslim religion and the countries that lie under its influence are split between supporting the US and opposing it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    I've not followed the story previously but that was a damning report into the Garden Bridge.

    In the way that taxpayers money can be thrown away on some trendy London gimmick with proper procedures being overruled or ignored it remind me of the Kids Company disgrace.

    Isn't it about time some politicians got surcharged ?
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    BVA poll, data collected 5-7 Apr (debate was on 4 Apr):

    Le Pen 23%
    Macron 23%
    Fillon 19%
    Mélenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%
    Dupont-Aignan 3.5%

    Macron's support for the US attack on Syria won't win him any votes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017

    Mr. Urquhart, are they charging him with anything? Or is he free to go?

    He still faces charges over the weapons they found in his car, but I think that is it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Cyan said:

    BVA poll, data collected 5-7 Apr (debate was on 4 Apr):

    Le Pen 23%
    Macron 23%
    Fillon 19%
    Mélenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%
    Dupont-Aignan 3.5%

    Macron's support for the US attack on Syria won't win him any votes.

    Still think there is something flashy and panny about Macron...
  • As a tory voter in a current Tory, former Lib dem south west seat I would say the seat will very easily return to the Liberals.
    The current Tory Mp has been absent so far. The former high profile Lib Dem made sure to attend not just local business and NHS events. But even the smallest, most tedious of local hamlet's bring and buys and church roof fundraisers. At least one in each over a five year period.

    The new MP barley attends a major event.

    though many people have no wish to see the terrible economic incompetence of the former Liberals return, they also, i believe, would welcome a local MP who at least pays lip service to their views. The liberals never went away. They received an enormous kicking for the coalition. but even more for the lying. That won't continue indefinitely.

    The only problem to a comfortable Lib Dem majority is that of the usual two faces one for the liberal. They are the party of remain in the heart of brexit.

    Tim Farron's decision to be the 'vote again until we agree to stay' party, is not as sound as it appears. He should be leading the party of 'seek to rejoin the EU'. That way the usual Lib dem face both ways trick is not so difficult to pull off.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    On Topic.
    To answer Mikes point, no. If organisation is the explanation then why the change ? Has Libdem organisation got a lot better, very quickly ?
    Currently, Labour claim more than 5 times as many members as The Libdems but it seems to be doing them no good at all. A huge salesforce is no use if your product is crap. Some voters, actually lots of voters quite like The Libdem brand - thats why their much smaller salesforce is taking market share.
    On the Polls, The Libdems have been going up for most of the last year, by around 1% every 3 Months; its painfully slow but it still adds up.Is it surprising that Polls often lag behind reality on the ground ? Most voters arent exposed to active politics except at Elections, they depend on the media who are only interested in splits & scandals. In Media terms The Libdems have no "story" to them at all.

    Membership numbers does not necessarily equal organisation, as you say the product matters, and also how well someone can make use of those numbers. The LDs are seemingly better at that, and finding themselves more attractive to voters at present, if they had one and not the other they would be doing worse in locals.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited April 2017
    Cyan said:

    BVA poll, data collected 5-7 Apr (debate was on 4 Apr):

    Le Pen 23%
    Macron 23%
    Fillon 19%
    Mélenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%
    Dupont-Aignan 3.5%

    Macron's support for the US attack on Syria won't win him any votes.

    Today's IFOP

    1st round

    Le Pen 24.5%
    Macron 23.5%
    Fillon 18.5%
    Melenchon 17%
    Hamon 9.5%
    Dupont-Aignan 4.5%

    Runoff Macron 59% Le Pen 41%
    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_07-04-2017.pdf
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Urquhart, well, at least he won't just be let off. But it's still ridiculous.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    Is there actually any evidence that links leaflets stuck through letter boxes to increased vote share? We had a leaflet from the Lib Dems yesterday and its transition from letter box to recycling bin was seamless, ditto one today from some other party. Pavement pounding and leafleting strikes me as being a waste of time and paper.

    It does show that they are capable of a level of effort for their own benefit - which, if elected, might become a level of effort on behalf of their constituents.

    Whereas those can't be arsed to do anything when they would be the beneficiary aren't likely to do much for their constituents if elected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's opposition to US strikes in Syria and Farron's support for them could have an impact in the Manchester Gorton by election given a 1/3 of the population is Muslim

    In which way ?
    If the Muslim population oppose the strike it could help Labour see off Galloway and the LDs
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    It's not organisation, it's that the major parties just don't care about PCBEs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's opposition to US strikes in Syria and Farron's support for them could have an impact in the Manchester Gorton by election given a 1/3 of the population is Muslim

    I think you would have to be pretty devoid of humanity to see the targeting of military assets as some kind of anti-Muslim agenda. The fact innocent children were killed by chemical weapons instigated by Assad absolves Trump and the US of any guilt IMO. I think Corbyn has made a mistake and this is the second time a Labour leader has let down innocent people in Syria. I doubt Corbyn will receive any further support for this stance as the Muslim religion and the countries that lie under its influence are split between supporting the US and opposing it.
    You may be right but we will see
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Fenman said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Is there actually any evidence that links leaflets stuck through letter boxes to increased vote share? We had a leaflet from the Lib Dems yesterday and its transition from letter box to recycling bin was seamless, ditto one today from some other party. Pavement pounding and leafleting strikes me as being a waste of time and paper.

    Well at least you know the Lib Dems have delivered a leaflet to you so it has had some impact . How much impact it has is , I agree , a subject for debate . .
    I get loads of Lib Dem leaflets slagging the Tories in government but praising the local council.The Conservatives and Lib Dems are in coalition leading City of York council.
    In coalition? Like in 2015? Still, never mind, at least the Lib Dem won't fide their expenses to win.
    Yes Labour were the largest party in York in 2015 but the Lib Dems went into coalition with Conservatives to run the council So we get a mixed messages in our regular leaflet.To be fair I am in York Outer and only the Lib Dems bother between elections.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Is there actually any evidence that links leaflets stuck through letter boxes to increased vote share? We had a leaflet from the Lib Dems yesterday and its transition from letter box to recycling bin was seamless, ditto one today from some other party. Pavement pounding and leafleting strikes me as being a waste of time and paper.

    It does show that they are capable of a level of effort for their own benefit - which, if elected, might become a level of effort on behalf of their constituents.

    Whereas those can't be arsed to do anything when they would be the beneficiary aren't likely to do much for their constituents if elected.
    Yep.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Cyan said:

    BVA poll, data collected 5-7 Apr (debate was on 4 Apr):

    Le Pen 23%
    Macron 23%
    Fillon 19%
    Mélenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%
    Dupont-Aignan 3.5%

    Macron's support for the US attack on Syria won't win him any votes.

    Still think there is something flashy and panny about Macron...
    I agree. Macron would be the youngest French president ever. He's almost a decade younger than Giscard d'Estaing (1974), and almost half a decade younger than Jean Casimir-Perier (1894). And he fidgets a lot.

    The French officials who liaise with Germany and the EU are probably saying he's a shoe-in, and don't worry and stuff, but his poll scores may well be about to fall.

    He reminds me so much of Muttley:

    image
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Labour MPs ‘appalled’ at Corbyn’s attack on Syria airstrikes

    Labour faced another day of turmoil after Jeremy Corbyn condemned the missile strikes in Syria to the disgust of many of his parliamentary colleagues."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-mps-appalled-at-corbyn-attack-on-syria-airstrikes-wcfkkbsdk
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    AndyJS said:

    "Labour MPs ‘appalled’ at Corbyn’s attack on Syria airstrikes

    Labour faced another day of turmoil after Jeremy Corbyn condemned the missile strikes in Syria to the disgust of many of his parliamentary colleagues."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-mps-appalled-at-corbyn-attack-on-syria-airstrikes-wcfkkbsdk

    Labour MPs are in a permanent state of appalled, it's getting boring.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Labour MPs ‘appalled’ at Corbyn’s attack on Syria airstrikes

    Labour faced another day of turmoil after Jeremy Corbyn condemned the missile strikes in Syria to the disgust of many of his parliamentary colleagues."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-mps-appalled-at-corbyn-attack-on-syria-airstrikes-wcfkkbsdk

    Labour MPs are in a permanent state of appalled, it's getting boring.
    The Labour leadership makes the Green Party's statement look measured and statesmanlike

    https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2017/04/07/green-party-statement-on-us-airstrikes-in-syria/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: a reminder that if things run to plan, qualifying is tomorrow at 8am. The race should be Sunday at 7am.

    Anyway, I must be off.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    I've not followed the story previously but that was a damning report into the Garden Bridge.

    In the way that taxpayers money can be thrown away on some trendy London gimmick with proper procedures being overruled or ignored it remind me of the Kids Company disgrace.

    Isn't it about time some politicians got surcharged ?

    Lock wrong-doers up.

    There are some obvious people.

    However your example is poor - the evil baggage that is batmanwoman is oddly not behind bars. Neither is it true that the people that fanned her flame have had their nether regions removed.

    The feteing of these awful people by the establishment is shocking. Some of universities that aspire to greatness have disgraced themselves once again.


  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    isam said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carlotta will be really hacked off that Nicola Sturgeon is going down a treat in New York. Look forward to her twisted bitter bile tomorrow.

    Carlotta or Nicola?
    Carlotta of course , her daily portion of I hate SNP/Scotland posts.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited April 2017
    The Russians know more about the precise details of that chemical weapons attack than theyd like to let on that takes us well beyond just a 'didnt happen' denial.

    For starters, was it regular Sarin?
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    Is there actually any evidence that links leaflets stuck through letter boxes to increased vote share? We had a leaflet from the Lib Dems yesterday and its transition from letter box to recycling bin was seamless, ditto one today from some other party. Pavement pounding and leafleting strikes me as being a waste of time and paper.

    All political leaflets join the double glazing and conservatory crap, straight in to the recycling, I do not even look at the party I support, so in my case they are useless.
    Our local council also wastes money on a news letter/newspaper that also heads the same way. The council asked for feedback, and I told them stop wasting money on this crap, they ignored my suggestion and continue to waste money.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Labour MPs ‘appalled’ at Corbyn’s attack on Syria airstrikes

    Labour faced another day of turmoil after Jeremy Corbyn condemned the missile strikes in Syria to the disgust of many of his parliamentary colleagues."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-mps-appalled-at-corbyn-attack-on-syria-airstrikes-wcfkkbsdk

    Labour MPs are in a permanent state of appalled, it's getting boring.
    The Labour leadership makes the Green Party's statement look measured and statesmanlike

    https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2017/04/07/green-party-statement-on-us-airstrikes-in-syria/
    Green Party taking the same line as R-Sen Rand Paul.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Labour MPs ‘appalled’ at Corbyn’s attack on Syria airstrikes

    Labour faced another day of turmoil after Jeremy Corbyn condemned the missile strikes in Syria to the disgust of many of his parliamentary colleagues."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-mps-appalled-at-corbyn-attack-on-syria-airstrikes-wcfkkbsdk

    Labour MPs are in a permanent state of appalled, it's getting boring.
    Sure, but the US attack was unambiguously unlawful. It is not in self-defence and it has not been authorised by the UN Security Council. There are no two ways about it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    jayfdee said:


    Our local council also wastes money on a news letter/newspaper that also heads the same way. The council asked for feedback, and I told them stop wasting money on this crap, they ignored my suggestion and continue to waste money.

    Now that is very different to a party leaflet, as that is council (Your) cash and not party money.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Y0kel said:

    The Russians know more about the precise details of that chemical weapons attack than theyd like to let on that takes us well beyond just a 'didnt happen' denial.

    For starters, was it regular Sarin?

    You don't say, come out of the closet Tapestry all is forgiven.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    I've not followed the story previously but that was a damning report into the Garden Bridge.

    In the way that taxpayers money can be thrown away on some trendy London gimmick with proper procedures being overruled or ignored it remind me of the Kids Company disgrace.

    Isn't it about time some politicians got surcharged ?

    I've been going on about it for yonks on here. It was a terrible project. For those who haven't seen it yet:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/07_04_17_garden_bridge_report.pdf

    A great quote from it:

    "Boris Johnson himself reflected the confusion of purpose when he was asked about it by The New Civil Engineer, in January 2014. They reported he "wasn’t really sure what it was for", other than making a "wonderful environment for a crafty cigarette or a romantic assignation."

    :)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's opposition to US strikes in Syria and Farron's support for them could have an impact in the Manchester Gorton by election given a 1/3 of the population is Muslim

    I think you would have to be pretty devoid of humanity to see the targeting of military assets as some kind of anti-Muslim agenda. The fact innocent children were killed by chemical weapons instigated by Assad absolves Trump and the US of any guilt IMO. I think Corbyn has made a mistake and this is the second time a Labour leader has let down innocent people in Syria. I doubt Corbyn will receive any further support for this stance as the Muslim religion and the countries that lie under its influence are split between supporting the US and opposing it.
    You may be right but we will see
    If you are getting into sectarian politics, Assad is seen as a secular
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawites

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Syria

    I doubt that many Muslims in this country have much affection for Assad - certainly not if they are Sunni
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2017
    DavidL said:

    Hmm. Why is none of this showing up in the national polling? The explanation of better organisation at a local level sounds right. I think we will need to see much more progress on May 4th before the Tories panic too much. Most of the majorities in the ex Lib Dem seats are large and the Tories are up more nationally than the Lib Dems.

    But your assumption is based on UNS. Maybe the Tories could be getting bigger swings from Labour or UKIP.

    The question is not how much swing there is from CON to LD, but where ?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Labour MPs ‘appalled’ at Corbyn’s attack on Syria airstrikes

    Labour faced another day of turmoil after Jeremy Corbyn condemned the missile strikes in Syria to the disgust of many of his parliamentary colleagues."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-mps-appalled-at-corbyn-attack-on-syria-airstrikes-wcfkkbsdk

    Labour MPs are in a permanent state of appalled, it's getting boring.
    The Labour leadership makes the Green Party's statement look measured and statesmanlike

    https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2017/04/07/green-party-statement-on-us-airstrikes-in-syria/
    A classic example of "everything before the But is bollocks".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's opposition to US strikes in Syria and Farron's support for them could have an impact in the Manchester Gorton by election given a 1/3 of the population is Muslim

    I think you would have to be pretty devoid of humanity to see the targeting of military assets as some kind of anti-Muslim agenda. The fact innocent children were killed by chemical weapons instigated by Assad absolves Trump and the US of any guilt IMO. I think Corbyn has made a mistake and this is the second time a Labour leader has let down innocent people in Syria. I doubt Corbyn will receive any further support for this stance as the Muslim religion and the countries that lie under its influence are split between supporting the US and opposing it.
    You may be right but we will see
    If you are getting into sectarian politics, Assad is seen as a secular
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawites

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Syria

    I doubt that many Muslims in this country have much affection for Assad - certainly not if they are Sunni
    Most Muslims have opposed every recent US intervention in the Middle East, some of course see him as a bulwark against both ISIS and the West
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    malcolmg said:

    Y0kel said:

    The Russians know more about the precise details of that chemical weapons attack than theyd like to let on that takes us well beyond just a 'didnt happen' denial.

    For starters, was it regular Sarin?

    You don't say, come out of the closet Tapestry all is forgiven.
    Variations on original formulations are not unusual.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    malcolmg said:

    Y0kel said:

    The Russians know more about the precise details of that chemical weapons attack than theyd like to let on that takes us well beyond just a 'didnt happen' denial.

    For starters, was it regular Sarin?

    You don't say, come out of the closet Tapestry all is forgiven.
    On a serious level, the purity of the agent (whatever it was) would be quite telling.

    Making impure nerve agents is perfectly possible in a crude, home made setup (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aum_Shinrikyo).

    High purity takes a more sophisticated operation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    FPT:

    kle4 said:


    Do PBers believe that the US, which on issues such as LGBT rights has swung a more liberal way - will go towards a more socially conservative direction, despite the fact Generation Xers and Millenials seem to have more liberal attitudes/politics? http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/20/a-wider-partisan-and-ideological-gap-between-younger-older-generations/

    It may be unfair, as someone with no knowledge of american jurisprudence and scant knowledge of american culture, to comment, but I would assume to a certain degree, yes, since if reporting is any indication the justices usually vote upon very clear and predictable lines outside of a few issues, so if one of a certain bent is elected you know if they can they will move in certain directions as a whole, but it may not be as extreme as some fear/hope.

    Not always, though. Chief Justice Roberts - a conservative - was the swing vote that kept Obamacare alive. SCOTUS does have the capacity to surprise, but you'd expect it to come down in favour of states rights and a literal reading of the constitution more often than not given its line up.

    Gorusch was not someone to go to war over. The Democrats should have waved him through. They need to win the Senate next year, now, in order to prevent the conservative bias on SCOTUS getting very pronounced indeed.
    Kennedy has also ruled in favour of abortion rights and on same-sex marriage, too. This is an interesting piece re Gorsuch, Garland and criminal justice http://reason.com/blog/2017/04/04/on-criminal-justice-and-executive-branch

    I think the Democrats filibustered because of the base (who, looking at twitter are VERY anti-Gorsuch - they see him as anti-woman and a Scalia clone among many other things) and the Senate Committee Hearings, with Gorsuch dodging quite a few questions which I think was the trigger which led to such Democrat opposition.

    Talking to SeanF recently on here, he doesn't seem to think the Dems can take back the Senate. So they are going to have to pray that Kennedy doesn't retire, that Ginsburg (who is pretty old now) doesn't die, and that Beyer doesn't retire/die either.
    The Democrats could have got a nominee far worse (from their point of view) than Gorsuch.
This discussion has been closed.