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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tory GE2015 expenses probe could have been the reason that the party’s been polling the LD seats it gained

Last week there were a number of stories sparked off first by George Eaton in the New Statesman about a series of private Crosby Textor polls that the Tories are said to have commissioned in many of the 27 seats that were gained from the LDs at GE2015.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

RobD

Second

GeoffM

Third!

Edit: Second if you disregard TSE cheating!

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

RobD

GeoffM said:

Third!

Edit: Second if you disregard TSE cheating!

I like the way you think..

RobD

Oh, and do we know when "soon" is? Before the locals?

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

TOPPING

fpt

@GeoffM

go fuck yourself.

GeoffM

TOPPING said:

fpt

@GeoffM

go fuck yourself.

I love you too xxxx

Scott_P

TheScreamingEagles said:

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

If 27 seats were declared void, do you not think the Commons would vote for dissolution?

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

Ugh.. don't remind me!

I do recall seeing a Labour MP in charge of their election team on the BBC saying they would vote for a snap election. Admittedly, that could just be bluster.

FF43

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

RobD

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Oh no... cue a thousand comments on who would be PM in the interim...

TheScreamingEagles

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

If 27 seats were declared void, do you not think the Commons would vote for dissolution?

What if it was say 9 seats? Enough to wipe out Mrs May's majority.

MikeSmithson

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

GeoffM

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Wouldn't the next Budget (or Queens Speech, or similar) be a de facto confidence vote anyway? And Labour would naturally oppose it? So the Govt would fall?

TOPPING

GeoffM said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

@GeoffM

go fuck yourself.

I love you too xxxx

In all seriousness, white knight or not, it was pretty scuzzy. I know we're on the internet but it had the feel of a bullying pack.

Still, if you're cool with that, then all's well in the world.

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

Oh, and do we know when "soon" is? Before the locals?

As soon as the CPS come to a charging decision.

They've helped imprison five sitting/recent MPs in the last few years, including one cabinet minster.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Oh, and do we know when "soon" is? Before the locals?

As soon as the CPS come to a charging decision.

They've helped imprison five sitting/recent MPs in the last few years, including one cabinet minster.

Guardian says a few weeks for the 12 currently with the CPS

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/10/tory-election-spending-johnny-mercer-mp-police-some-claims-were-wrong

Morris_Dancer

FPT: In unrelated news, been following development of Kingdom Come: Deliverance for a little while and found two snippets. To my surprise, the console versions will release at the same time as the PC edition. And Brian Blessed is one of the voice actors.

Hope it can live up to its promise (the game's set in Bohemia, 1403, telling a largely historical story of woe, treachery and so forth. It's been described as dungeons, but no dragons).

On-topic: hmm.

Could be looking at a snap election.

For the future, the relevant Acts may need rewriting to clarify things.

AlastairMeeks

It might well be presentationally easier to arrange an early election from a hung Parliament than from the current position. If substantial measures are defeated, the Prime Minister can reasonably ask for a mandate to get business done effectively. The public would buy that if the government doesn't have an overall majority, but won't while it does.

I can't imagine the Lib Dems would support a Corbynite government (hell, it's hard to imagine many Labour MPs supporting a Corbynite government), even if the SNP could be got on board. So there isn't an alternative government in the wings.

I have 2017, 2018 and 2019 elections all covered at odds of 12/1 upwards and I'm happy with that.

FF43

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

I haven't thought this through, obviously. Could the actual prospect of Jeremy Corbyn being prime minister be a potent electoral weapon for the Conservatives? If you don't vote Conservative in a by-election against the Lib Dems, or in a GE, you run the real possibility of getting Corbyn.

AlastairMeeks

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

Richard_Tyndall

TOPPING said:

GeoffM said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

@GeoffM

go fuck yourself.

I love you too xxxx

In all seriousness, white knight or not, it was pretty scuzzy. I know we're on the internet but it had the feel of a bullying pack.

Still, if you're cool with that, then all's well in the world.

No one is going to listen to lectures from a hypocrite like you.

Morris_Dancer

As an aside, the Fixed Term Parliament Act remains as stupid today as it ever was. As a time-limited measure for the Coalition it made sense, but only with a sunset clause. Cameron's lack of foresight was not a great trait (though he's hardly alone in that, amongst recent PMs).

RobD

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

I don't think it is known for certain.

TOPPING

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

GeoffM said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

@GeoffM

go fuck yourself.

I love you too xxxx

In all seriousness, white knight or not, it was pretty scuzzy. I know we're on the internet but it had the feel of a bullying pack.

Still, if you're cool with that, then all's well in the world.

No one is going to listen to lectures from a hypocrite like you.

You are a coward and a bully and all your bollocks this morning doesn't alter that fact. You should be ashamed of yourself and, in your quieter moments, you probably are.

rottenborough

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

RobD

Morris_Dancer said:

As an aside, the Fixed Term Parliament Act remains as stupid today as it ever was. As a time-limited measure for the Coalition it made sense, but only with a sunset clause. Cameron's lack of foresight was not a great trait (though he's hardly alone in that, amongst recent PMs).

It does have sort of a sunset clause - it has to be reviewed in 2020 (which can include repealing the act).

RobD

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

There was not a PM in the 30 minutes between Cameron's resignation and May's appointment.

AlastairMeeks

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

Yes, so which of the two fulfils the role in that interlude?

another_richard

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

I saw this and thought of you:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-39531246

Ever fancied living as a Byronic hero ?

geoffw

.

Morris_Dancer said:

As an aside, the Fixed Term Parliament Act remains as stupid today as it ever was. As a time-limited measure for the Coalition it made sense, but only with a sunset clause. Cameron's lack of foresight was not a great trait (though he's hardly alone in that, amongst recent PMs).

Bring in a bill to scrap it. The way to a GE then emerges whatever the outcome.

Richard_Tyndall

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

GeoffM said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

@GeoffM

go fuck yourself.

I love you too xxxx

In all seriousness, white knight or not, it was pretty scuzzy. I know we're on the internet but it had the feel of a bullying pack.

Still, if you're cool with that, then all's well in the world.

No one is going to listen to lectures from a hypocrite like you.

You are a coward and a bully and all your bollocks this morning doesn't alter that fact. You should be ashamed of yourself and, in your quieter moments, you probably are.

Not in the least. You are an arrogant hypocrite who is more than happy to dish out insults but gets upset when people return them in kind. All your bollocks about picking on a woman is just a way for a scumbag like you to try and subvert the argument. You are more than happy to dish it out to people like Plato but get all righteous if someone else is the target. If anyone should be looking in the mirror it is a spiteful little toad like you.

Morris_Dancer

Come on, chaps. Not much good is done hurling insults at one another.

HYUFD

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

In which even if the Tories lost seats to the LDs they would gain even more from Labour, as Copeland proved, thus increasing the Tory majority overall

GeoffM

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

Really? Are you sure?

Off on a slight tangent but that rule certainly applies to hereditary peerages.

Useless factoid of the day: The first and second Barons Stamp were killed by the same German bomb but the son is legally presumed to have died a fraction of a second later and therefore inherited the title for that very brief time.

rkrkrk

Morris_Dancer said:

As an aside, the Fixed Term Parliament Act remains as stupid today as it ever was. As a time-limited measure for the Coalition it made sense, but only with a sunset clause. Cameron's lack of foresight was not a great trait (though he's hardly alone in that, amongst recent PMs).

Agreed. IMO Clegg deserves a fair share of the blame also.

The fear was that an early election called by Cameron might have hurt the Lib Dems?
As opposed to the 2015 one in which they did so well...

OldKingCole

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Oh, and do we know when "soon" is? Before the locals?

As soon as the CPS come to a charging decision.

They've helped imprison five sitting/recent MPs in the last few years, including one cabinet minster.

Guardian says a few weeks for the 12 currently with the CPS

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/10/tory-election-spending-johnny-mercer-mp-police-some-claims-were-wrong

That’s 12 police forces, not 12 cases, of course.

TheWhiteRabbit

AlastairMeeks said:

It might well be presentationally easier to arrange an early election from a hung Parliament than from the current position. If substantial measures are defeated, the Prime Minister can reasonably ask for a mandate to get business done effectively. The public would buy that if the government doesn't have an overall majority, but won't while it does.

I can't imagine the Lib Dems would support a Corbynite government (hell, it's hard to imagine many Labour MPs supporting a Corbynite government), even if the SNP could be got on board. So there isn't an alternative government in the wings.

I have 2017, 2018 and 2019 elections all covered at odds of 12/1 upwards and I'm happy with that.

I think she'd rather govern effectively that give that up and force an election!

12/1 seems good value, but can't say I think it's likely.

TOPPING

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

GeoffM said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

@GeoffM

go fuck yourself.

I love you too xxxx

In all seriousness, white knight or not, it was pretty scuzzy. I know we're on the internet but it had the feel of a bullying pack.

Still, if you're cool with that, then all's well in the world.

No one is going to listen to lectures from a hypocrite like you.

You are a coward and a bully and all your bollocks this morning doesn't alter that fact. You should be ashamed of yourself and, in your quieter moments, you probably are.

Not in the least. You are an arrogant hypocrite who is more than happy to dish out insults but gets upset when people return them in kind. All your bollocks about picking on a woman is just a way for a scumbag like you to try and subvert the argument. You are more than happy to dish it out to people like Plato but get all righteous if someone else is the target. If anyone should be looking in the mirror it is a spiteful little toad like you.

First, dickhead, I have only ever replied to Plato once, and I think I apologised shortly afterwards because it was a sharp response. And since then I haven't responded to her or commented on her posts for months and months. Indeed the only time I've mentioned her in perhaps a year was two days ago when I wondered on here when she would be allowed back to post.

So your first point illustrates neatly how much of a fucking moron you are.

Second, you and Sean were being bullying, pure and simple, last night. If you really can't work out the difference between me calling you a dickhead (which to be fair you are, so it is really only a statement of fact) and you two ganging up on a woman poster, then you are even more cretinous than I had previously believed. And I had previously believed that you were pretty cretinous.

geoffw

TheWhiteRabbit said:

.. snip ..
12/1 seems good value, but can't say I think it's likely.

Well, no.

Blue_rog

Don't like the tone on here today

Morris_Dancer

Tend not to post post-race things after Monday, but as a distraction PBers may enjoy something non-political and less heated:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/china-post-race-analysis-2017.html

Also, Bahrain's only a few days away. Will give the Ladbrokes market a second look later this morning, but nothing leapt out yesterday.

RobD

Blue_rog said:

Don't like the tone on here today

Yeah, it's not pleasant. Neither was last night looking back at it.

Richard_Tyndall

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

GeoffM said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

@GeoffM

go fuck yourself.

I love you too xxxx

In all seriousness, white knight or not, it was pretty scuzzy. I know we're on the internet but it had the feel of a bullying pack.

Still, if you're cool with that, then all's well in the world.

No one is going to listen to lectures from a hypocrite like you.

You are a coward and a bully and all your bollocks this morning doesn't alter that fact. You should be ashamed of yourself and, in your quieter moments, you probably are.

Not in the least. You are an arrogant hypocrite who is more than happy to dish out insults but gets upset when people return them in kind. All your bollocks about picking on a woman is just a way for a scumbag like you to try and subvert the argument. You are more than happy to dish it out to people like Plato but get all righteous if someone else is the target. If anyone should be looking in the mirror it is a spiteful little toad like you.

First, dickhead, I have only ever replied to Plato once, and I think I apologised shortly afterwards because it was a sharp response. And since then I haven't responded to her or commented on her posts for months and months. Indeed the only time I've mentioned her in perhaps a year was two days ago when I wondered on here when she would be allowed back to post.

So your first point illustrates neatly how much of a fucking moron you are.

Second, you and Sean were being bullying, pure and simple, last night. If you really can't work out the difference between me calling you a dickhead (which to be fair you are, so it is really only a statement of fact) and you two ganging up on a woman poster, then you are even more cretinous than I had previously believed. And I had previously believed that you were pretty cretinous.

Yeah yeah, says the coward posting from behind his fake name. We treated Beverley in exactly the same way as any other poster on here. It is you trying to make something out of this just because she is a woman. Just like you did with Plato - a lot more than once as it happens. You really are beneath contempt. No one will take lessons from a cowardly hypocrite like you. You comprehensively lose the argument so then you revert to claims of bad behaviour and bullying. Kind of sums up the whole Remoaner strategy.

MaxPB

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

Whoever resides in No. 10. Brown was PM for a few days following the 2010 election despite Labour having lost its majority.

Alistair

United CEO has gone with full support of his staff

https://twitter.com/RyanRuggiero/status/851577150117425154

AlastairMeeks

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

Whoever resides in No. 10. Brown was PM for a few days following the 2010 election despite Labour having lost its majority.

But he hadn't definitively lost the confidence of the Commons at that point. When he had (and David Cameron could show that he had that confidence), he went. In the circumstances hypothesised, Theresa May would have lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn would not have demonstrated that he was capable of getting it. So the position is not quite the same.

Morris_Dancer

Meanwhile, the Stockholm maniac has admitted to terrorist crime, as it's termed:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39564825

williamglenn

Alistair said:

United CEO has gone with full support of his staff

And blaming the victim... 'The facts are still evolving' indeed.

PBModerator

Richard/Topping

Can we tone it down from eleven please.

justin124

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

In which even if the Tories lost seats to the LDs they would gain even more from Labour, as Copeland proved, thus increasing the Tory majority overall

If this gets to the Courts at all , it will not reach trial until next year. Even then it would remain far from certain that those accused would be convicted. As a worst case scenario the Government's majority is unlikely to be affected by this saga before Autumn 2018.

TGOHF

Alistair said:

United CEO has gone with full support of his staff

https://twitter.com/RyanRuggiero/status/851577150117425154

the "denial of boarding process" - which includes passengers already boarded - seems ill-named.

Morris_Dancer

F1: gossip column reckons Alonso's future will be decided in the summer.

Mercedes might be paying close attention. Not sure when Ricciardo's contract runs its course, but he may be looking for Bottas' seat as well.

JonathanD

Alistair said:

United CEO has gone with full support of his staff

https://twitter.com/RyanRuggiero/status/851577150117425154

I assume on of the terms and conditions of a plane ticket is that your seat is not guaranteed in the event of an over booking and that you have to get off if asked. Airplane technically right in what they did then. I'm amazed that no one took up the $1000 not to fly.

edmundintokyo

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

Whoever resides in No. 10. Brown was PM for a few days following the 2010 election despite Labour having lost its majority.

But he hadn't definitively lost the confidence of the Commons at that point. When he had (and David Cameron could show that he had that confidence), he went. In the circumstances hypothesised, Theresa May would have lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn would not have demonstrated that he was capable of getting it. So the position is not quite the same.

My understanding was that the Queen wouldn't generally call someone unless they had a reasonable chance of winning a vote. That's hard to see with Corbyn, although it might provide an opening for an audacious centrist who could say they might get a few Tories on side.

But maybe there are some historical counter-examples somewhere in this list, especially if you include Australia and Canada:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_defeated_by_votes_of_no_confidence

TGOHF

JonathanD said:

Alistair said:

United CEO has gone with full support of his staff

https://twitter.com/RyanRuggiero/status/851577150117425154

I assume on of the terms and conditions of a plane ticket is that your seat is not guaranteed in the event of an over booking and that you have to get off if asked. Airplane technically right in what they did then. I'm amazed that no one took up the $1000 not to fly.

saw posts that a woman offered to get off for $1600 but the crew refused.

justin124

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

Whoever resides in No. 10. Brown was PM for a few days following the 2010 election despite Labour having lost its majority.

But he hadn't definitively lost the confidence of the Commons at that point. When he had (and David Cameron could show that he had that confidence), he went. In the circumstances hypothesised, Theresa May would have lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn would not have demonstrated that he was capable of getting it. So the position is not quite the same.

Had he wanted to be really awkward Brown could have remained PM until defeated on the Queen's Speech. It might also have given him an opportunity to undermine Clegg's agreement with Cameron by persuading a group of unhappy LibDem MPs to denounce it.

JonathanD

TGOHF said:

JonathanD said:

Alistair said:

United CEO has gone with full support of his staff

https://twitter.com/RyanRuggiero/status/851577150117425154

I assume on of the terms and conditions of a plane ticket is that your seat is not guaranteed in the event of an over booking and that you have to get off if asked. Airplane technically right in what they did then. I'm amazed that no one took up the $1000 not to fly.

saw posts that a woman offered to get off for $1600 but the crew refused.

lol, that would have been the best $600 of PR ever spent.

NickPalmer

RobD said:

Blue_rog said:

Don't like the tone on here today

Yeah, it's not pleasant. Neither was last night looking back at it.

+1.

AlastairMeeks

justin124 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

Whoever resides in No. 10. Brown was PM for a few days following the 2010 election despite Labour having lost its majority.

But he hadn't definitively lost the confidence of the Commons at that point. When he had (and David Cameron could show that he had that confidence), he went. In the circumstances hypothesised, Theresa May would have lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn would not have demonstrated that he was capable of getting it. So the position is not quite the same.

Had he wanted to be really awkward Brown could have remained PM until defeated on the Queen's Speech. It might also have given him an opportunity to undermine Clegg's agreement with Cameron by persuading a group of unhappy LibDem MPs to denounce it.

The only unhappy Lib Dem MP in 2010 was Charles Kennedy.

JosiasJessop

TGOHF said:

Alistair said:

United CEO has gone with full support of his staff

https://twitter.com/RyanRuggiero/status/851577150117425154

the "denial of boarding process" - which includes passengers already boarded - seems ill-named.

I found this quite interesting this morning:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/airlines/news/a26010/united-airlines-bump-passenger-rights/

JosiasJessop

Alistair said:

United CEO has gone with full support of his staff

https://twitter.com/RyanRuggiero/status/851577150117425154

That just makes things worse IMO.

Lucian_Fletcher

Good morning everyone. The saga continues in NI. Sinn Fein now demanding a new election. I assume that means they don't want one because surely even a wet and hopeless SoS like Brokenshire won't give Sinn Fein exactly what they publicly want twice in one spring.

Theuniondivvie

PBModerator said:

Richard/Topping

Can we tone it down from eleven please.

So no holds barred till 11am?

PeterMannion

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

There was not a PM in the 30 minutes between Cameron's resignation and May's appointment.

I thought Cameron remained PM until May became PM?

So, he was still PM for 30 minutes after handing in his resignation?

Short notice period, admittedly!

PeterMannion

PeterMannion said:

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

There was not a PM in the 30 minutes between Cameron's resignation and May's appointment.

I thought Cameron remained PM until May became PM?

So, he was still PM for 30 minutes after handing in his resignation?

Short notice period, admittedly!

But there obviously could be a time with no PM (e.g. if May got hit by a bus)

TOPPING

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

GeoffM said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

@GeoffM

go fuck yourself.

I love you too xxxx

In all seriousness, white knight or not, it was pretty scuzzy. I know we're on the internet but it had the feel of a bullying pack.

Still, if you're cool with that, then all's well in the world.

No one is going to listen to lectures from a hypocrite like you.

You are a coward and a bully and all your bollocks this morning doesn't alter that fact. You should be ashamed of yourself and, in your quieter moments, you probably are.

Not in the least. You are an arrogant hypocrite who is more than happy to dish out insults but gets upset when people return them in kind. All your bollocks about picking on a woman is just a way for a scumbag like you to try and subvert the argument. You are more than happy to dish it out to people like Plato but get all righteous if someone else is the target. If anyone should be looking in the mirror it is a spiteful little toad like you.

First, dickhead, I have only ever replied to Plato once, and I think I apologised shortly afterwards because it was a sharp response. And since then I haven't responded to her or commented on her posts for months and months. Indeed the only time I've mentioned her in perhaps a year was two days ago when I wondered on here when she would be allowed back to post.

So your first point illustrates neatly how much of a fucking moron you are.

Second, you and Sean were being bullying, pure and simple, last night. If you really can't work out the difference between me calling you a dickhead (which to be fair you are, so it is really only a statement of fact) and you two ganging up on a woman poster, then you are even more cretinous than I had previously believed. And I had previously believed that you were pretty cretinous.

Yeah yeah, says the coward posting from behind his fake name. We treated Beverley in exactly the same way as any other poster on here. It is you trying to make something out of this just because she is a woman. Just like you did with Plato - a lot more than once as it happens. You really are beneath contempt. No one will take lessons from a cowardly hypocrite like you. You comprehensively lose the argument so then you revert to claims of bad behaviour and bullying. Kind of sums up the whole Remoaner strategy.

Nope it wasn't more than once dickhead. Find me the posts.

Look, I understand. You embarrassed yourself last night so you're coming out swinging. Like a child. Edit: and as effective.

A bigger person would admit their error.

FF43

A lot of elision in a single sentence:

We sought volunteers and then followed our involuntary denial of boarding process (including offering up to $1000 in compensation) and when we approached one of these passengers to explain apologetically that he was being deined boarding, he raised his voice and refused to comply with crew member instruction.

My guess is that they went straight to selecting victims to reduce delay, as they were already fully boarded.

Alistair said:

United CEO has gone with full support of his staff

https://twitter.com/RyanRuggiero/status/851577150117425154

JackW

NickPalmer said:

RobD said:

Blue_rog said:

Don't like the tone on here today

Yeah, it's not pleasant. Neither was last night looking back at it.

+1.

Is that a prediction for Labour gains at the 2020 GE ? .....

Seems optimistic Nick ....

TheWhiteRabbit

JosiasJessop said:

Alistair said:

United CEO has gone with full support of his staff

https://twitter.com/RyanRuggiero/status/851577150117425154

That just makes things worse IMO.

Absolute idiots, all of them.

All they have to say is that whilst they stand by their policies and procedures, they will be investigating how they were applied in this case!

ThreeQuidder

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

That does not follow. It would have before the FTPA but the FTPA has rewritten all the rules.

ThreeQuidder

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

I don't think it is known for certain.

Theresa May.

TOPPING

Theuniondivvie said:

PBModerator said:

Richard/Topping

Can we tone it down from eleven please.

So no holds barred till 11am?

Probably still can't use the Reckless-word.

GeoffM

PeterMannion said:

PeterMannion said:

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

There was not a PM in the 30 minutes between Cameron's resignation and May's appointment.

I thought Cameron remained PM until May became PM?

So, he was still PM for 30 minutes after handing in his resignation?

Short notice period, admittedly!

But there obviously could be a time with no PM (e.g. if May got hit by a bus)

If we were in the US then there's a defined line of succession. So rather like Baron Stamp there is always a President even if he's not yet been sworn in.

But that doesn't exist in the UK as far as I know, so PeterMannion has a prima facie example here.

Lucian_Fletcher

JackW said:

NickPalmer said:

RobD said:

Blue_rog said:

Don't like the tone on here today

Yeah, it's not pleasant. Neither was last night looking back at it.

+1.

Is that a prediction for Labour gains at the 2020 GE ? .....

Seems optimistic Nick ....

Gains? Tsk.

GeoffM

ThreeQuidder said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

That does not follow. It would have before the FTPA but the FTPA has rewritten all the rules.

I don't think Mike is saying that it certainly follows - just that it is a possible development.

He (correctly, I think) progresses from 'would' to 'could' when describing the unfolding of his scenario.

MrsB

Morris_Dancer said:

Come on, chaps. Not much good is done hurling insults at one another.

Someone should frame that and hang it at the top of every thread on the internet.

OldKingCole

AlastairMeeks said:

justin124 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

Whoever resides in No. 10. Brown was PM for a few days following the 2010 election despite Labour having lost its majority.

But he hadn't definitively lost the confidence of the Commons at that point. When he had (and David Cameron could show that he had that confidence), he went. In the circumstances hypothesised, Theresa May would have lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn would not have demonstrated that he was capable of getting it. So the position is not quite the same.

Had he wanted to be really awkward Brown could have remained PM until defeated on the Queen's Speech. It might also have given him an opportunity to undermine Clegg's agreement with Cameron by persuading a group of unhappy LibDem MPs to denounce it.

The only unhappy Lib Dem MP in 2010 was Charles Kennedy.

IIRC Farron wasn’t too keen, either.

Morris_Dancer

Mrs B, very kind of you to say so

Animal_pb

GeoffM said:

PeterMannion said:

PeterMannion said:

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

There was not a PM in the 30 minutes between Cameron's resignation and May's appointment.

I thought Cameron remained PM until May became PM?

So, he was still PM for 30 minutes after handing in his resignation?

Short notice period, admittedly!

But there obviously could be a time with no PM (e.g. if May got hit by a bus)

If we were in the US then there's a defined line of succession. So rather like Baron Stamp there is always a President even if he's not yet been sworn in.

But that doesn't exist in the UK as far as I know, so PeterMannion has a prima facie example here.

I think that has to be right - the UK is never without a monarch, but in a parliamentary democracy there's no need for an absolute continuity between Prime Ministers. If one died, the next would certainly not hold office until appointed by the Crown.

OldKingCole

JonathanD said:

Alistair said:

United CEO has gone with full support of his staff

https://twitter.com/RyanRuggiero/status/851577150117425154

I assume on of the terms and conditions of a plane ticket is that your seat is not guaranteed in the event of an over booking and that you have to get off if asked. Airplane technically right in what they did then. I'm amazed that no one took up the $1000 not to fly.

We had an offer like that once, flying home from Canada. Can’t recall how much it was, but it was well worth being prepared to phone our daughter, who was going to collect us from LHR. In the event, sadly, there were a couple of no-shows so we didn’t get it!

rottenborough

Hard Brexiteers, prepare to splutter your cornflakes:

https://constitution-unit.com/2017/04/11/can-the-brexit-clock-be-stopped/

ThreeQuidder

rottenborough said:

Hard Brexiteers, prepare to splutter your cornflakes:

https://constitution-unit.com/2017/04/11/can-the-brexit-clock-be-stopped/

There is a bold assertion that A50 is revocable with no justification. Could do better. See me after class.

MrsB

Morris_Dancer said:

Mrs B, very kind of you to say so

On the whole, PB doesn't suffer too much. But some posters can be occasionally absolutely vile to each other. Some of it feels like bullying, whether intended or not.

OldKingCole

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Good morning everyone. The saga continues in NI. Sinn Fein now demanding a new election. I assume that means they don't want one because surely even a wet and hopeless SoS like Brokenshire won't give Sinn Fein exactly what they publicly want twice in one spring.

In any event, surely there wouldn’t be more than a few dozen votes change?

ThreeQuidder

GeoffM said:

ThreeQuidder said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

That does not follow. It would have before the FTPA but the FTPA has rewritten all the rules.

I don't think Mike is saying that it certainly follows - just that it is a possible development.

He (correctly, I think) progresses from 'would' to 'could' when describing the unfolding of his scenario.

He says that if May engineers a Commons defeat Corbyn *would* be invited to form a government.

That does not follow.

williamglenn

Certain Brexiteers seem to react aggressively when their 'big lie' that Ted Heath deceived the British people is exposed.

One very important aspect this narrative ignores is that this decision did not spring from the ether. The UK had been trying to get into the Community for a long time before that. MacMillan was a strong proponent of European integration. I even found a Pathé news clip from the 60s after the French veto which questioned whether De Gaulle's nationalism would put at risk 'the vision of a single currency and one general election from Sicily to the Orkney Islands'.

OllyT

RobD said:

Blue_rog said:

Don't like the tone on here today

Yeah, it's not pleasant. Neither was last night looking back at it.

Agreed. I rarely post these days, a handful of unpleasant individuals seem to dominate most threads these days. Quite how SeanT regularly gets away with bullying and abusing posters and telling them to leave the site. Perhaps he does own half of it as he (seriously) claimed last night, it's the only logical explanation.

FF43

I have been on several overbooked flights in the US. There is usually a compensation auction where they gradually raise the compensation amount until they can get they can get the requisite number of volunteers. There was never a problem getting volunteers.

This link explains the compensation amounts mandated by the FAA for involuntary denial of boarding. The airline is required to pay back five times the ticket price in cash (including the original booking). But if the ticket was a low price advanced fare, that might not be so much?

Pulpstar

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/851687144221536262

Cyan

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

If the results in 27 seats are annulled, Labour calls a vote of no confidence before the by-elections are held, and the government falls. Then there won't be any by-elections because there will be a general election instead. I don't care what the polls say. A party that loses its majority as a result of so many of its MPs being found to have cheated their way into the Commons - a party that is only in government because it cheated - will be out on its ear. Don't expect Labour MPs to do anything other than express a lack of confidence in it. But this course of events is extremely unlikely to happen.

RobD

OllyT said:

RobD said:

Blue_rog said:

Don't like the tone on here today

Yeah, it's not pleasant. Neither was last night looking back at it.

Agreed. I rarely post these days, a handful of unpleasant individuals seem to dominate most threads these days. Quite how SeanT regularly gets away with bullying and abusing posters and telling them to leave the site. Perhaps he does own half of it as he (seriously) claimed last night, it's the only logical explanation.

That was debunked by @rcs1000.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. T, whilst there has been some grumpiness this morning (and, by all accounts, last night) I think it's something of an exaggeration to say most threads are dominated by nastiness.

Besides, if a room's cold and everyone with a torch leaves it for a warmer place, that only makes the room colder. Better to light a cliche than curse the grumpiness.

F1: I have cast my eye over the Ladbrokes' market. Nothing that really tempts. The only things I'm properly contemplating are points for Stroll or Ocon at 2.62 and 2.75 respectively. Stroll had the car for points in Australia (probably not China) but had two unlucky DNFs. Ocon has scored in both races so far, but only just. From memory, Bahrain's more like China than Australia, so Ocon would probably be the more appealing.

Tricky, though. The midfield's pretty tight.

Not betting at this stage.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, if Le Pen reaches the second round, will it make much difference (to tactical voting) if she wins or is runner-up in round one?

Cyan

ThreeQuidder said:

GeoffM said:

ThreeQuidder said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

That does not follow. It would have before the FTPA but the FTPA has rewritten all the rules.

I don't think Mike is saying that it certainly follows - just that it is a possible development.

He (correctly, I think) progresses from 'would' to 'could' when describing the unfolding of his scenario.

He says that if May engineers a Commons defeat Corbyn *would* be invited to form a government.

That does not follow.

Of course it does not follow. May could advise the monarch to ask Corbyn to form a government, yes. She won't, though. Nor will she engineer a Commons defeat.

tlg86

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/851687144221536262

What probability would you put on a final two of Fillon and Melenchon?

justin124

AlastairMeeks said:

justin124 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeSmithson said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Think about it.

Mrs May and her government loses her majority and can't pass a budget or even Brexit related legislation such as The Great Repeal Bill (sic), fun times ahead.


Oh and primus inter pares.

If they did have the results annulled in 27 seats (!) I think we'd be seeing another general election.

How do you satisfy or circumvent the FTPA?

The Conservatives place a motion of no confidence in their own government and challenge Labour to vote against - ie they do have confidence. Which would be totally weird, but would work?

Then TMay has to inform the Queen that she has lost the confidence of the Commons and Mr. Corbyn would be invited to try to form a government. He could be PM for a few days

There's an important question for betting purposes. If Theresa May has lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn has yet to find out whether he has it, who is Prime Minister during that interlude?

There is never not a PM.

Whoever resides in No. 10. Brown was PM for a few days following the 2010 election despite Labour having lost its majority.

But he hadn't definitively lost the confidence of the Commons at that point. When he had (and David Cameron could show that he had that confidence), he went. In the circumstances hypothesised, Theresa May would have lost the confidence of the Commons and Jeremy Corbyn would not have demonstrated that he was capable of getting it. So the position is not quite the same.

Had he wanted to be really awkward Brown could have remained PM until defeated on the Queen's Speech. It might also have given him an opportunity to undermine Clegg's agreement with Cameron by persuading a group of unhappy LibDem MPs to denounce it.

The only unhappy Lib Dem MP in 2010 was Charles Kennedy.

Charles Kennedy was the only LibDem MP to express his unease in public , but I believe there were others - Adrian Sanders , Pugh, the St Ives MP - who were far from happy.Had a group of four or five denounced the Agreement and declared their intention to sit on the Opposition Benches things might have become interesting.

FF43

MrsB said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mrs B, very kind of you to say so

On the whole, PB doesn't suffer too much. But some posters can be occasionally absolutely vile to each other. Some of it feels like bullying, whether intended or not.

Fortunately, most posters on PB stick to arguments from all points of view and are perfectly polite to each other. This makes the site a rewarding one to read. In general, I think people who resort to insults have run out of arguments. Beverley hopefully seems to have the resilience to stand up to bullying, which is what this was.