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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs go for the jugular against Corbyn in Manchester Gorton

SystemSystem Posts: 11,683
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs go for the jugular against Corbyn in Manchester Gorton

Brutal Lib Dem leaflet for Manchester Gorton by-election. pic.twitter.com/VUQq3zS23E

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    "Vote for the LDs, we wish we were Labour too"
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    It is a pretty funny leaflet though.

    That said, it appears to say 'turn over to see the real opposition'. What if the first bit I see is the other side, leaflet, you'd look silly then, eh?
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    edited April 2017
    Fourth like SLab
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Be interesting to see how the Lib Dems do. Likewise Galloway.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Labour may or may not be missing a backbone, but Corbyn may have too much of a backbone, it's keeping him upright as leader long past the point that is healthy.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. kle4, are you saying Corbyn is the Honda engine of British politics?
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Good to see there’s no bar too low the Lib Dems can’t slither under. :lol:
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    SimonStClare said:

    Good to see there’s no bar too low the Lib Dems can’t slither under. :lol:

    Speaking of bars, where is the bar chart??
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Bizarre Labour pledge

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/852176028990672896
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited April 2017
    " Those wanting to stay in the EU are much more fired up than those who back Leave."

    LOL They are now, getting on for 10 months after the matter was decided.

    No one told them when to run; they missed the starting gun.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    edited April 2017
    calum said:

    Bizarre Labour pledge

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/852176028990672896

    LOL, but they say Scotland will lose theirs. They really are bolloxed.
    PS: Imagine getout is that we are not over a sea
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited April 2017
    calum said:

    Bizarre Labour pledge

    hps://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/852176028990672896

    Seems like an effort in the past few days to try and chip away at the Tory lead with the elderly with some bribe the grey voter policies.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,226
    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    Bizarre Labour pledge

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/852176028990672896

    LOL, but they say Scotland will lose theirs. They really are bolloxed.
    PS: Imagine getout is that we are not over a sea
    Eh? Can someone explain to me how Labour will be able to protect anyone's pension?
  • Options
    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    FPT
    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    Ishmael_Z said:

    " Those wanting to stay in the EU are much more fired up than those who back Leave."

    LOL They are now, getting on for 10 months after the matter was decided.

    No one told them when to run; they missed the starting gun.

    If you think of it as a race, winning the referendum was just like making the qualifying time for the Olympics. Article 50 was the starting gun, but there's every chance that the Brexiteers' legs will buckle well before the bell for the final lap.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,444
    MikeSmithson said:

    If the LD leaflet appears brutal then think how the Tories will exploit the LAB leader’s history and that of his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Their back stories have so many hostages to fortune.

    I heard rumours of one of the Tory attack ads for the next GE.

    It's a video of every IRA attack on the mainland in the last 40 years, with a graphic of how many people were killed and injured in the attack.

    The ad ends with a reference to Corbyn inviting Gerry Adams to the Commons days after the Brighton bombing and ends with John McDonnell saying that the IRA should be honoured for the bombings which brought the British government to the negotiating table during the Northern Ireland peace process.

    Con gain Bootle if that video is accurate.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    This is the best pledge - WTF are these guys taking !!

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/852134770758889475
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    calum said:

    This is the best pledge - WTF are these guys taking !!

    twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/852134770758889475

    Pledging not to scrap the winter fuel allowance will probably be popular.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    If the LD leaflet appears brutal then think how the Tories will exploit the LAB leader’s history and that of his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Their back stories have so many hostages to fortune.

    I heard rumours of one of the Tory attack ads for the next GE.

    It's a video of every IRA attack on the mainland in the last 40 years, with a graphic of how many people were killed and injured in the attack.

    The ad ends with a reference to Corbyn inviting Gerry Adams to the Commons days after the Brighton bombing and ends with John McDonnell saying that the IRA should be honoured for the bombings which brought the British government to the negotiating table during the Northern Ireland peace process.

    Con gain Bootle if that video is accurate.
    I think their attitude at the time was awful, but I don't know that it would hit that hard with everyone - while the timing is extremely significant, that you can turn on the TV and see us all treating with Adams and his ilk every day, may diminish the impact of exactly what they were suggesting then and why things are different now.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,444
    calum said:

    This is the best pledge - WTF are these guys taking !!

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/852134770758889475

    You're reading way too much into a Corbyn fan site.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    " Those wanting to stay in the EU are much more fired up than those who back Leave."

    LOL They are now, getting on for 10 months after the matter was decided.

    No one told them when to run; they missed the starting gun.

    If you think of it as a race, winning the referendum was just like making the qualifying time for the Olympics. Article 50 was the starting gun, but there's every chance that the Brexiteers' legs will buckle well before the bell for the final lap.
    Keep up the dream, william, keep up the dream.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    With the airline that put the hospital in hospitality? :)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    With the airline that put the hospital in hospitality? :)
    Lucky old me :smiley:
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,444
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. G, zut alors! Sacre bleu!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.
    Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    fpt
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TOPPING said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A group of 27 men and two women have appeared in court today accused of historic child abuse and neglect.

    The 27 men are accused of committing historic sex and trafficking offences against 18 girls aged between 11 and 17 between 2004 and 2011.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4405262/27-men-2-women-court-child-sex-neglect-case.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFW6yUlgGdI
    Let me guess (not ever watching the video clips you attach) - a pithy, acute analogy confirming the fact that a certain people have a propensity to commit sexual abuse while the establishment looks on doing nothing.

    Am I right?
    Perhaps we should put up a similar set of posts of all the rapes and sexual assaults carried out by people who are not immigrants and not from ethnic minorities. Sadly I suspect it would take a hell of a lot more time and effort than the occasional reports from Sam.
    What exactly are you trying to say?

    Edit: because you seem to be saying that a hell of a lot more assaults are committed by non-immigrants.
    I understand how my post might have seemed I was getting at you, I wasn't. Apologies.

    Like you I suspect, I just grow tired of people highlighting assaults by ethnic minorities or immigrants as if that is somehow an argument for them not being here or as if there is something specific about a religion or minority that makes them more likely to commit such assaults. If we were to follow that pattern and post every time a white person was involved in sexual abuse this place would be overwhelmed with such posts and we would all just give up.

    Abso-effing-lutely.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    I'm not sure modelling himself on the handsome charismatic Warren Beatty is a very wise idea. He already has problems of low esteem


    https://media1.britannica.com/eb-media/18/77218-004-A9DCCD14.jpg



  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,929
    edited April 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    If the LD leaflet appears brutal then think how the Tories will exploit the LAB leader’s history and that of his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Their back stories have so many hostages to fortune.

    I heard rumours of one of the Tory attack ads for the next GE.

    It's a video of every IRA attack on the mainland in the last 40 years, with a graphic of how many people were killed and injured in the attack.

    The ad ends with a reference to Corbyn inviting Gerry Adams to the Commons days after the Brighton bombing and ends with John McDonnell saying that the IRA should be honoured for the bombings which brought the British government to the negotiating table during the Northern Ireland peace process.

    Con gain Bootle if that video is accurate.
    They can just point to the establishment paying tribute to Martin McGuinness, while calling out Norman Tebbit for not joining in, and say they were ahead of their time
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,444
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.
    Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?
    More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited April 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.
    Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?
    More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.
    "Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"

    That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.
    Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?
    More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.
    You mentioned not attending enough was a red flag. Boy am I in trouble!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.
    Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?
    More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.
    "Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"

    That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.
    Yeah, being cheeky is a big no-no!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,444
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.
    Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?
    More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.
    You mentioned not attending enough was a red flag. Boy am I in trouble!
    And you frequent a blog whose deputy editor is a Muslim!

    I hope you look good in orange, because you're going straight to Gitmo.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    calum said:

    This is the best pledge - WTF are these guys taking !!

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/852134770758889475

    Well we don't want our free owls getting cold...
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Labour, so split that in one (FPTP) ward they've got two candidates standing!

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/851830823573737472
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,444
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.
    Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?
    More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.
    "Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"

    That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.
    Yeah, I learned that lesson the hard way.

    TSA Official: Do you have any weapons?

    Me: Why? What do you need? Because one of my fellow travellers on this trip works for Qinetiq and he'll help you out.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.
    Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?
    More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.
    "Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"

    That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.
    Yeah, I learned that lesson the hard way.

    TSA Official: Do you have any weapons?

    Me: Why? What do you need? Because one of my fellow travellers on this trip works for Qinetiq and he'll help you out.
    I feel like as a British person who rarely travels that scenario would be very hard for me, fighting my instincts.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    BudG said:

    FPT

    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
    I'm very happy for that trend to continue.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    If the LD leaflet appears brutal then think how the Tories will exploit the LAB leader’s history and that of his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Their back stories have so many hostages to fortune.

    I heard rumours of one of the Tory attack ads for the next GE.

    It's a video of every IRA attack on the mainland in the last 40 years, with a graphic of how many people were killed and injured in the attack.

    The ad ends with a reference to Corbyn inviting Gerry Adams to the Commons days after the Brighton bombing and ends with John McDonnell saying that the IRA should be honoured for the bombings which brought the British government to the negotiating table during the Northern Ireland peace process.

    Con gain Bootle if that video is accurate.
    There will be plenty in that vein, will go down rather well in places like Warrington and Birmingham.

    Not sure about Manchester, given that the scumbags did £1bn of improvements to the city centre there ;)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
    I'm very happy for that trend to continue.
    Go Melenchon/Filon for the final two!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,444
    kle4 said:


    I feel like as a British person who rarely travels that scenario would be very hard for me, fighting my instincts.

    Same here.

    The only time I've ever had a major incident was on a business trip, I went with 5 colleagues, 4 white Englishmen, one white Scotsman, and me.

    I was singled out for special attention and my colleagues took exception to the treatment being meted out to me.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.
    Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?
    More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.
    "Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"

    That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.
    Yeah, I learned that lesson the hard way.

    TSA Official: Do you have any weapons?

    Me: Why? What do you need? Because one of my fellow travellers on this trip works for Qinetiq and he'll help you out.
    I feel like as a British person who rarely travels that scenario would be very hard for me, fighting my instincts.
    Friend of a friend nearly got sent back from Australia once, they asked if he had a criminal record and he instinctively replied that he didn't realise one was still required! They didn't see the funny side.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    If the LD leaflet appears brutal then think how the Tories will exploit the LAB leader’s history and that of his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Their back stories have so many hostages to fortune.

    I heard rumours of one of the Tory attack ads for the next GE.

    It's a video of every IRA attack on the mainland in the last 40 years, with a graphic of how many people were killed and injured in the attack.

    The ad ends with a reference to Corbyn inviting Gerry Adams to the Commons days after the Brighton bombing and ends with John McDonnell saying that the IRA should be honoured for the bombings which brought the British government to the negotiating table during the Northern Ireland peace process.

    Con gain Bootle if that video is accurate.
    If that doesn't work, they can always do the follow up with Hezbollah, Press TV, Stop the War....

    Or go for the Winter of Discontent, 3 day week etc, and how Jezzas policies are basically from the 70s.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    Essexit said:

    Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.

    Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
    I'm very happy for that trend to continue.
    Go Melenchon/Filon for the final two!
    I make £140 if Melenchon reaches the run off and another £100 if Fillon wins.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    Listening to the joint Russia - US press conference from Moscow it looks like a big win for Trump and I am willing to be corrected but it looks like Russia have blinked first.

    Big success for Tillerson with Lavrov condemning Obama and looking for joint action on Syria and also co-operation over North Korea

    Maybe the future is a little brighter but long way to go
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    These tightening polls notwithstanding, 1.92 for Macron looks like insane value.
  • Options
    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
    I'm very happy for that trend to continue.
    If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:

    Melenchon 22
    Le Pen 21.5
    Fillon 21
    Macron 19

    Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to the joint Russia - US press conference from Moscow it looks like a big win for Trump and I am willing to be corrected but it looks like Russia have blinked first.

    Big success for Tillerson with Lavrov condemning Obama and looking for joint action on Syria and also co-operation over North Korea

    Maybe the future is a little brighter but long way to go

    Lavrov just referred to our 'American Partners'
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    BudG said:

    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
    I'm very happy for that trend to continue.
    If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:

    Melenchon 22
    Le Pen 21.5
    Fillon 21
    Macron 19

    Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
    If it's Melenchon v Le Pen in the run-off, then the next French President will want to pull the country out of the EU and NATO, although I expect neither would get close to a majority in the National Assembly.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. F, I thought Le Pen wanted France to leave the eurozone, and would only hold an EU In/Out referendum if that didn't happen?
  • Options
    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
    I'm very happy for that trend to continue.
    If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:

    Melenchon 22
    Le Pen 21.5
    Fillon 21
    Macron 19

    Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
    If it's Melenchon v Le Pen in the run-off, then the next French President will want to pull the country out of the EU and NATO, although I expect neither would get close to a majority in the National Assembly.
    No they wouldn't. Which is why it is fairly safe for the French to have a free hit at the establishment.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    If the LD leaflet appears brutal then think how the Tories will exploit the LAB leader’s history and that of his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Their back stories have so many hostages to fortune.

    I heard rumours of one of the Tory attack ads for the next GE.

    It's a video of every IRA attack on the mainland in the last 40 years, with a graphic of how many people were killed and injured in the attack.

    The ad ends with a reference to Corbyn inviting Gerry Adams to the Commons days after the Brighton bombing and ends with John McDonnell saying that the IRA should be honoured for the bombings which brought the British government to the negotiating table during the Northern Ireland peace process.

    Con gain Bootle if that video is accurate.
    I think their attitude at the time was awful, but I don't know that it would hit that hard with everyone - while the timing is extremely significant, that you can turn on the TV and see us all treating with Adams and his ilk every day, may diminish the impact of exactly what they were suggesting then and why things are different now.
    It will hit home in the Midlands.

    Dad will not even utter his the Chancellor's name - he grew up in Brum in the early 70s. Like almost everyone, he went to pubs.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    BudG said:

    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
    I'm very happy for that trend to continue.
    If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:

    Melenchon 22
    Le Pen 21.5
    Fillon 21
    Macron 19

    Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
    If it's Melenchon v Le Pen in the run-off, then the next French President will want to pull the country out of the EU and NATO, although I expect neither would get close to a majority in the National Assembly.
    No they wouldn't. Which is why it is fairly safe for the French to have a free hit at the establishment.
    The danger with that is that things run out of control. A win for either might generate a bandwagon for the Assembly elections. I don't think it would, but it has to be a possibility. And, even with a hostile Assembly, the winner would have five years to promise the moon on a stick to the voters, if only the Assembly weren't blocking him/her - and then call fresh elections if it seemed propitious.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited April 2017
    I still think it will be a Le Pen v Macron runoff but that Fillon will run Macron close for second
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Those saying not sure how effective reminding the public of Jezza and McMao's support for IRA...remember who it is that votes.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Nicola joining Kezia on criticising Ruth's position:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/fm-brands-ruth-davidson-shameful-over-rape-clause-stance-1-4418275
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    calum said:

    Nicola joining Kezia on criticising Ruth's position:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/fm-brands-ruth-davidson-shameful-over-rape-clause-stance-1-4418275

    Surprised they are against the exemption. :smiley:
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    On topic,

    Bet half the PLP are praying for a LD win :)
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    BudG said:

    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
    I'm very happy for that trend to continue.
    If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:

    Melenchon 22
    Le Pen 21.5
    Fillon 21
    Macron 19

    Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
    Interesting interview with Melenchon's number two here:

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/

    She holds up Venezuela as her inspiration, talks about getting rid of the Fifth Republic and wants to remove political parties in favour of people's organisations.

    Where have I heard all of that except the first before? Oh yes, the Soviet constitution of 1936.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to the joint Russia - US press conference from Moscow it looks like a big win for Trump and I am willing to be corrected but it looks like Russia have blinked first.

    Big success for Tillerson with Lavrov condemning Obama and looking for joint action on Syria and also co-operation over North Korea

    Maybe the future is a little brighter but long way to go

    Lavrov just referred to our 'American Partners'
    If Trump or more likely Tillerson can help solve the North Korean problem, presumably with China's help, he'll deserve a medal.

    Private Eye will also have to devise an even better speech bubble for the N. Korean leader than his recent 'there is no big brother here'.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Those saying not sure how effective reminding the public of Jezza and McMao's support for IRA...remember who it is that votes.

    And where the marginal Lab/Con seats are.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    ydoethur said:

    BudG said:

    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
    I'm very happy for that trend to continue.
    If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:

    Melenchon 22
    Le Pen 21.5
    Fillon 21
    Macron 19

    Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
    Interesting interview with Melenchon's number two here:

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/

    She holds up Venezuela as her inspiration.
    People still do that?! I could understand it 3-4 years ago maybe.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,993
    Essexit said:

    Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.

    Labour is the party with the real Brexit problem. Hop on the Brexit bus, fight off UKIP in the North, but lose metropolitan seats to the LibDems. Or argue against Brexit, and potentially lose to both UKIP and the Conservatives - but hold on against the LibDems.

    The right answer, in the long run, is surely to hop on the Brexit bus. But. It's potentially a difficult period ahead, and (until Brexit is done and dusted and no one cares anymore) it means being one of three parties backing Brexit, giving the LibDems an opportunity to capture the perhaps 15% of voters who are hardcore Remain-ers.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    calum said:

    Nicola joining Kezia on criticising Ruth's position:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/fm-brands-ruth-davidson-shameful-over-rape-clause-stance-1-4418275

    Not this again.

    Do the SNP think there *shouldn't* be an exception to the new rules for victims of rape?
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Nicola joining Kezia on criticising Ruth's position:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/fm-brands-ruth-davidson-shameful-over-rape-clause-stance-1-4418275

    Surprised they are against the exemption. :smiley:
    Not great headlines for Ruth as postal ballots start arriving !
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    calum said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:

    Nicola joining Kezia on criticising Ruth's position:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/fm-brands-ruth-davidson-shameful-over-rape-clause-stance-1-4418275

    Surprised they are against the exemption. :smiley:
    Not great headlines for Ruth as postal ballots start arriving !
    I would venture to suggest more than a third of Scots support capping tax credits at 2 children and an exemption for rape victims and a third of the Scottish vote would be an excellent result for Davidson
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.
    Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?
    More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.
    "Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"

    That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.
    Yeah, I learned that lesson the hard way.

    TSA Official: Do you have any weapons?

    Me: Why? What do you need? Because one of my fellow travellers on this trip works for Qinetiq and he'll help you out.
    I feel like as a British person who rarely travels that scenario would be very hard for me, fighting my instincts.
    I was travelling back from France on the ferry, in a two-seater sports car. The stony-faced customs woman looked us both up and down before asking: "just the two of you travelling is it?"

    Thumbnails stuck into palm of hands, etc..before answering: "yes, just the two of us."
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.

    Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.
    Labour would do better if they made up their collective minds, stuck together and voted accordingly.

    As it is, most of them seem to keep voting to help the Conservatives get their policies through.

    It confuses people, and they stop supporting Labour.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    *obvious joke alert*

    Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.

    I've been stealing more of your thoughts. :p
    I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.

    Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
    Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrow :p
    Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.
    Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?
    More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.
    "Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"

    That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.
    Yeah, I learned that lesson the hard way.

    TSA Official: Do you have any weapons?

    Me: Why? What do you need? Because one of my fellow travellers on this trip works for Qinetiq and he'll help you out.
    I feel like as a British person who rarely travels that scenario would be very hard for me, fighting my instincts.
    I was travelling back from France on the ferry, in a two-seater sports car. The stony-faced customs woman looked us both up and down before asking: "just the two of you travelling is it?"

    Thumbnails stuck into palm of hands, etc..before answering: "yes, just the two of us."
    When I used to go on a booze cruise (not been of late) I was never stopped or questioned bar the usual security stuff.

    I found replying to them in French most helpful and usually received a smile and Merci.

    About time I planned another trip and thankfully I am now 4 yrs on since my last cigarette(another reason for previous visits)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,993
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. F, I thought Le Pen wanted France to leave the eurozone, and would only hold an EU In/Out referendum if that didn't happen?

    That's correct. She's softened considerably on the non-Eurozone part of the EU. (Part of her move towards the centre.)

    It's also worth remembering that the appointment of the executive government (i.e. the PM and ministers) requires the consent of the National Assembly. It is possible that the FN ends up with the Presidency - perhaps following a Melachon vs Le Pen run off - but has less than a tenth of the seats in the National Assembly. In those circumstances, it would be almost impossible for MLP to put together a cabinet that would be acceptable to the National Assembly.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    PClipp said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.

    Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.
    Labour would do better if they made up their collective minds, stuck together and voted accordingly.

    As it is, most of them seem to keep voting to help the Conservatives get their policies through.

    It confuses people, and they stop supporting Labour.
    The Cons have abandoned austerity, they have u-turned time and again (and in fact have u-turned for the past seven years on any contentious policy).

    If Lab (HUUUUUUUUUGE IF) had any kind of credible leadership, and JMcD does give it a go sometimes, they would be whumping the Cons in the polls.

    As for Brexit, they are, politically, golden. On record, sort of, as opposing it, but seen now as determined to do the best they can for the UK.

    As for the IRA video, if it exists, again, a competent leader could point to the GFA and say look what we have now. Historically economic with the actualite but an effective counter.

    But it comes back to Jezza again. All that turns to ashes with him at the helm.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,993
    HYUFD said:

    I still think it will be a Le Pen v Macron runoff but that Fillon will run Macron close for second

    The main centre right party has outperformed the polls almost everywhere in Europe in the last few years (UK, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands), so maybe Fillon sneaks into the final two.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    Have United been up to their tricks again?

    https://twitter.com/reutersworld/status/852229284035014657
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    calum said:

    Nicola joining Kezia on criticising Ruth's position:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/fm-brands-ruth-davidson-shameful-over-rape-clause-stance-1-4418275

    Why do they want these mothers to be denied child benefit?
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    rcs1000 said:

    Essexit said:

    Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.

    Labour is the party with the real Brexit problem. Hop on the Brexit bus, fight off UKIP in the North, but lose metropolitan seats to the LibDems. Or argue against Brexit, and potentially lose to both UKIP and the Conservatives - but hold on against the LibDems.

    The right answer, in the long run, is surely to hop on the Brexit bus. But. It's potentially a difficult period ahead, and (until Brexit is done and dusted and no one cares anymore) it means being one of three parties backing Brexit, giving the LibDems an opportunity to capture the perhaps 15% of voters who are hardcore Remain-ers.
    The Lib Dems have apparently made quite a tradition of saying one thing in one area and the opposite in another, to suit the local electorate. It's surely worth while Labour trying that? They have people who really back one side and other people who really back the other side, so it's just a question of pushing the right people in the right places.

    Good evening, everybody.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,993
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    BudG said:

    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
    I'm very happy for that trend to continue.
    If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:

    Melenchon 22
    Le Pen 21.5
    Fillon 21
    Macron 19

    Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
    Interesting interview with Melenchon's number two here:

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/

    She holds up Venezuela as her inspiration.
    People still do that?! I could understand it 3-4 years ago maybe.
    Interestingly, France has two of the most geologically interesting on-shore basins in Europe from an oil and gas perspective. It could be a major oil producer.

    Sadly (for France), they are:
    The Paris Basin (underneath Paris)
    The Aquitaine Basin (underneath the Bordeaux vinyards

    This rather limits the likelihood of them being exploited.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    SeanT said:

    Mate, this girl last night. OOOOOF.

    Is she accident prone?

    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Oooof
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    calum said:

    This is the best pledge - WTF are these guys taking !!

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/852134770758889475

    Well we don't want our free owls getting cold...
    Burning those pensioner pledges sure is generating a nice lot of heat.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    TOPPING said:

    PClipp said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.

    Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.
    Labour would do better if they made up their collective minds, stuck together and voted accordingly.

    As it is, most of them seem to keep voting to help the Conservatives get their policies through.

    It confuses people, and they stop supporting Labour.
    The Cons have abandoned austerity, they have u-turned time and again (and in fact have u-turned for the past seven years on any contentious policy).

    If Lab (HUUUUUUUUUGE IF) had any kind of credible leadership, and JMcD does give it a go sometimes, they would be whumping the Cons in the polls.

    As for Brexit, they are, politically, golden. On record, sort of, as opposing it, but seen now as determined to do the best they can for the UK.

    As for the IRA video, if it exists, again, a competent leader could point to the GFA and say look what we have now. Historically economic with the actualite but an effective counter.

    But it comes back to Jezza again. All that turns to ashes with him at the helm.
    I don't think so, May has reasonably positive ratings at the moment even if Labour changed its leader
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think it will be a Le Pen v Macron runoff but that Fillon will run Macron close for second

    The main centre right party has outperformed the polls almost everywhere in Europe in the last few years (UK, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands), so maybe Fillon sneaks into the final two.
    Agreed it will be tight for the second runoff spot
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    PClipp said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.

    Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.
    Labour would do better if they made up their collective minds, stuck together and voted accordingly.

    As it is, most of them seem to keep voting to help the Conservatives get their policies through.

    It confuses people, and they stop supporting Labour.
    The Cons have abandoned austerity, they have u-turned time and again (and in fact have u-turned for the past seven years on any contentious policy).

    If Lab (HUUUUUUUUUGE IF) had any kind of credible leadership, and JMcD does give it a go sometimes, they would be whumping the Cons in the polls.

    As for Brexit, they are, politically, golden. On record, sort of, as opposing it, but seen now as determined to do the best they can for the UK.

    As for the IRA video, if it exists, again, a competent leader could point to the GFA and say look what we have now. Historically economic with the actualite but an effective counter.

    But it comes back to Jezza again. All that turns to ashes with him at the helm.
    I don't think so, May has reasonably positive ratings at the moment even if Labour changed its leader
    A good leader could challenge her better and perhaps help turn some of those positive numbers.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    PClipp said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.

    Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.
    Labour would do better if they made up their collective minds, stuck together and voted accordingly.

    As it is, most of them seem to keep voting to help the Conservatives get their policies through.

    It confuses people, and they stop supporting Labour.
    Liberal ? Democratic ? Is Farron still stamping his feet because the people didn't vote the way he wanted.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. F, I thought Le Pen wanted France to leave the eurozone, and would only hold an EU In/Out referendum if that didn't happen?

    That's correct. She's softened considerably on the non-Eurozone part of the EU. (Part of her move towards the centre.)

    It's also worth remembering that the appointment of the executive government (i.e. the PM and ministers) requires the consent of the National Assembly. It is possible that the FN ends up with the Presidency - perhaps following a Melachon vs Le Pen run off - but has less than a tenth of the seats in the National Assembly. In those circumstances, it would be almost impossible for MLP to put together a cabinet that would be acceptable to the National Assembly.
    In some ways it would be interesting to see what happens. I certainly don't buy the argument that the election of Le Pen would mean the end of the EU - if nothing else there's no real mechanism for it to end.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,993
    Are there any markets on how long Sean Spicer remains as White House Press Secretary? "Even Hitler didn't stoop as low as to use chemical weapons."

    Ouch. Ouch. Ouch.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    BudG said:

    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
    I'm very happy for that trend to continue.
    If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:

    Melenchon 22
    Le Pen 21.5
    Fillon 21
    Macron 19

    Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
    Interesting interview with Melenchon's number two here:

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/

    She holds up Venezuela as her inspiration.
    People still do that?! I could understand it 3-4 years ago maybe.
    Interestingly, France has two of the most geologically interesting on-shore basins in Europe from an oil and gas perspective. It could be a major oil producer.

    Sadly (for France), they are:
    The Paris Basin (underneath Paris)
    The Aquitaine Basin (underneath the Bordeaux vinyards

    This rather limits the likelihood of them being exploited.
    They should get in touch with C M Burns and his Slant Drilling Co.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    PClipp said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.

    Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.
    Labour would do better if they made up their collective minds, stuck together and voted accordingly.

    As it is, most of them seem to keep voting to help the Conservatives get their policies through.

    It confuses people, and they stop supporting Labour.
    The Cons have abandoned austerity, they have u-turned time and again (and in fact have u-turned for the past seven years on any contentious policy).

    If Lab (HUUUUUUUUUGE IF) had any kind of credible leadership, and JMcD does give it a go sometimes, they would be whumping the Cons in the polls.

    As for Brexit, they are, politically, golden. On record, sort of, as opposing it, but seen now as determined to do the best they can for the UK.

    As for the IRA video, if it exists, again, a competent leader could point to the GFA and say look what we have now. Historically economic with the actualite but an effective counter.

    But it comes back to Jezza again. All that turns to ashes with him at the helm.
    I don't think so, May has reasonably positive ratings at the moment even if Labour changed its leader
    She is on a tightrope. She simply can't please everyone and Lab is being dismissed, complacently in my view. If they change their leader they are in play.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    edited April 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    BudG said:

    Sean_F said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    AndyJS said:

    New French presidential poll:

    Ifop-Fiducial

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 18.5%

    The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.

    Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:


    Le Pen -2
    Macron -3.5
    Fillon +2
    Melenchon +3.5

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
    I'm very happy for that trend to continue.
    If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:

    Melenchon 22
    Le Pen 21.5
    Fillon 21
    Macron 19

    Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
    Interesting interview with Melenchon's number two here:

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/

    She holds up Venezuela as her inspiration.
    People still do that?! I could understand it 3-4 years ago maybe.
    Interestingly, France has two of the most geologically interesting on-shore basins in Europe from an oil and gas perspective. It could be a major oil producer.

    Sadly (for France), they are:
    The Paris Basin (underneath Paris)
    The Aquitaine Basin (underneath the Bordeaux vinyards

    This rather limits the likelihood of them being exploited.
    One of them is a serious matter. No way could we manage to lose such an important place.

    But for the other one - would we really miss Paris?

    @kle4 - she says 'Latin America' but it's clear where she means. Remember, to most true believers Venezuela hasn't gone belly up because of corruption, mismanagement, greed and criminality of a venal ruling elite - it was destroyed by a US conspiracy backed by the world's banks. It's an early example of 'alternative facts'.

    But maybe I'm being generous and it's as simple as she does want to utterly destroy France. She does also mention Iceland and Greece as examples to follow...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited April 2017
    Feel like this might be worth reminding people of, for no reason.
    PBModerator said:

    SIte notice.

    There's too much aggression, spats, and unpleasantness on PB at the moment.

    So can we tone it down now, or more stringent action will be deployed.

    Everything in moderation - including moments of extremity!
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,855
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think it will be a Le Pen v Macron runoff but that Fillon will run Macron close for second

    The main centre right party has outperformed the polls almost everywhere in Europe in the last few years (UK, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands), so maybe Fillon sneaks into the final two.
    Agreed it will be tight for the second runoff spot
    The French centre-right have made a complete mess of an election they should have won at a hack canter.

    Fillon's only hope is he polls 37% among those aged 65 or more - it's an extraordinary figure and in complete contrast to his much lower figures among younger voters.

    The reverse is true for Marine Le Pen who polls only 14% among the over 65s. Macron's vote is much more uniform across the age groups.

    A strong Fillon vote comes mainly at Le Pen's expense so could it be a Macron-Fillon run off ?

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    rcs1000 said:

    Are there any markets on how long Sean Spicer remains as White House Press Secretary? "Even Hitler didn't stoop as low as to use chemical weapons."

    Ouch. Ouch. Ouch.

    It's hard to see why anyone would want such a soul destroying job as White House Press Secretary.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    kle4 said:

    Feel like this might be worth reminding people of, for no reason.

    PBModerator said:

    SIte notice.

    There's too much aggression, spats, and unpleasantness on PB at the moment.

    So can we tone it down now, or more stringent action will be deployed.

    Everything in moderation - including moments of extremity!
    Everything in moderation, except PB. Guzzle it down like there is no tomorrow!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,993
    On the subject of French oil, the Front National opposes fracking in France (unlike our own UKIP). I don't think any mainstream party (France Arise?) supports it. (Which is strange when you remember how sparsely populated France is compared to the UK.)
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think it will be a Le Pen v Macron runoff but that Fillon will run Macron close for second

    The main centre right party has outperformed the polls almost everywhere in Europe in the last few years (UK, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands), so maybe Fillon sneaks into the final two.
    Agreed it will be tight for the second runoff spot
    The French centre-right have made a complete mess of an election they should have won at a hack canter.

    Fillon's only hope is he polls 37% among those aged 65 or more - it's an extraordinary figure and in complete contrast to his much lower figures among younger voters.

    The reverse is true for Marine Le Pen who polls only 14% among the over 65s. Macron's vote is much more uniform across the age groups.

    A strong Fillon vote comes mainly at Le Pen's expense so could it be a Macron-Fillon run off ?

    I hope so!
This discussion has been closed.