Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The nearer you are to Russia the greater you attach to the imp

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The nearer you are to Russia the greater you attach to the importance of NATO

Well done to YouGov for putting together this cross comparison of view of NATO in a range of different countries.

Read the full story here


«1

Comments

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Oh those Russians...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    No no, its our fault you see - Putin would totally be a nice dude if only we made attempts to be friendly. It's not as though stirring up antipathy with us benefits him too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    This is the 'no shit. sherlock' poll I guess.

    More don't knows in Britain I see, even though Denmark and Norway have higher 'no longer a useful role' score.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The figure that should be of most concern is the US figure. Fewer than half of Americans are convinced of NATO's importance. But if the US followed Donald Trump's initial instincts, NATO would be lying in state-o.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The figure that should be of most concern is the US figure. Fewer than half of Americans are convinced of NATO's importance. But if the US followed Donald Trump's initial instincts, NATO would be lying in state-o.

    Lots of Don't know in the USA. Many Americans are more focussed on military issues outside Europe, in the Pacific, Asia and Latin America where NATO does not have a role.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited April 2017
    FPT
    kle4 said:

    http//twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/852567154046238720

    Additionally, note Marine Le Pen convincingly loses to everyone.

    Simultaneously the most popular and least popular politician in France?
    Not so, Le Pen is certainly one of the least popular politicians in France, but Melenchon is the most popular. (Wonder where those undecided votes are gonna go?)


    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/04/07/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-tete-0211955709354.jpg
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    BudG said:

    FPT

    kle4 said:

    http//twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/852567154046238720

    Additionally, note Marine Le Pen convincingly loses to everyone.

    Simultaneously the most popular and least popular politician in France?
    Not so, Le pen is certainly the least popular politician in France, but Melenchon is the most popular. (Wonder where those undecided votes are gonna go?)


    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/04/07/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-tete-0211955709354.jpg
    I was thinking purely in terms that she has long been predicted to top the first round poll (though as things currently stand who knows)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    The figure that should be of most concern is the US figure. Fewer than half of Americans are convinced of NATO's importance. But if the US followed Donald Trump's initial instincts, NATO would be lying in state-o.

    Things may be even worse than they look. The question is what US respondents would say about the statement "NATO still has a useful role to play in the defence of the US", which is actually what matters to them and which would presumably garner a lot less than 46% of the vote (unless that is the question they were actually responding to anyway, despite it not being what was asked).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    NATO is an American diplomatic success story. As long as there are few others it should be safe.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    The figure that should be of most concern is the US figure. Fewer than half of Americans are convinced of NATO's importance. But if the US followed Donald Trump's initial instincts, NATO would be lying in state-o.

    Lots of Don't know in the USA. Many Americans are more focussed on military issues outside Europe, in the Pacific, Asia and Latin America where NATO does not have a role.
    Considering history, the American version of Splendid Isolation has it's attractions. Demanding that they risk war with Russia over Estonia - when the rest of Europe fails to do their bit?*

    * If Germany, France, Italy and Spain spent 2% on defence, they would have military force that would make Putin's games moot.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    kle4 said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    kle4 said:

    http//twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/852567154046238720

    Additionally, note Marine Le Pen convincingly loses to everyone.

    Simultaneously the most popular and least popular politician in France?
    Not so, Le pen is certainly the least popular politician in France, but Melenchon is the most popular. (Wonder where those undecided votes are gonna go?)


    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/04/07/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-tete-0211955709354.jpg
    I was thinking purely in terms that she has long been predicted to top the first round poll (though as things currently stand who knows)
    Yes, who knows indeed, seems like both her and Macron are both dropping and depending upon which poll you read, either of them could be leading.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    To be fair, there often wasn't a lot of difference between what was said by Sarah Palin and what was said by Tina Fey.

    One for the Hall of Fame of political impersonation.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2017
    BudG said:

    kle4 said:

    BudG said:

    FPT

    kle4 said:

    http//twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/852567154046238720

    Additionally, note Marine Le Pen convincingly loses to everyone.

    Simultaneously the most popular and least popular politician in France?
    Not so, Le pen is certainly the least popular politician in France, but Melenchon is the most popular. (Wonder where those undecided votes are gonna go?)


    https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/04/07/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-tete-0211955709354.jpg
    I was thinking purely in terms that she has long been predicted to top the first round poll (though as things currently stand who knows)
    Yes, who knows indeed, seems like both her and Macron are both dropping and depending upon which poll you read, either of them could be leading.
    The polls have been more or less tied between Macron and LePen for ages with little real movement. Possibly LePen is a nose ahead, but not more than a nose. Their odds should be a lot closer, not 1.68 and 3.55 as they stand on Betfair at present. I think Macron is fair value to come top. He beats all comers in the second round.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    To be fair, there often wasn't a lot of difference between what was said by Sarah Palin and what was said by Tina Fey.

    One for the Hall of Fame of political impersonation.
    She said

    They’re our next-door neighbors. And you can actually see Russia, from land, here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    kle4 said:

    No no, its our fault you see - Putin would totally be a nice dude if only we made attempts to be friendly. It's not as though stirring up antipathy with us benefits him too.

    You attach 100% of the blame to one party do you?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    The nearer you are to the frontline, the more importance you attach to your tin helmet. #NSS.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    The headline is completely wrong. Every schoolboy knows that the USA neighbours Russia in Alaska. There are other howlers. Pisspoor stuff.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited April 2017

    kle4 said:

    No no, its our fault you see - Putin would totally be a nice dude if only we made attempts to be friendly. It's not as though stirring up antipathy with us benefits him too.

    You attach 100% of the blame to one party do you?
    No I don't - that's why I said benefits him 'too', as in also, that is in addition to us. Did you not see it? But you sometimes see this naiive crap from the anti western crowd acting as though it is solely down to us as to why the relationship with Russia is the way it is.

    If someone wants to have a debate as to which side is most to blame, and why we need to have sides, that's a different matter.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    To be fair, there often wasn't a lot of difference between what was said by Sarah Palin and what was said by Tina Fey.

    One for the Hall of Fame of political impersonation.
    She said

    They’re our next-door neighbors. And you can actually see Russia, from land, here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska.

    Which happens to be correct - IIRC the closest Alaskan island to a Russian island is something like 3 miles away.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    edited April 2017


    The polls have been more or less tied between Macron and LePen for ages with little real movement. Possibly LePen is a nose ahead, but not more than a nose. Their odds should be a lot closer, not 1.68 and 3.55 as they stand on Betfair at present. I think Macron is fair value to come top. He beats all comers in the second round.

    Good spot, hadn't seen that first-round-only market.

    Melanchon still inching up on latest ppolls, Le Pen faltering. exciting, whatever our preferences.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    To be fair, there often wasn't a lot of difference between what was said by Sarah Palin and what was said by Tina Fey.

    One for the Hall of Fame of political impersonation.
    She said

    They’re our next-door neighbors. And you can actually see Russia, from land, here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska.

    That's not quite what she said:
    Palin: "They [Russia] are right there, right next to our state [Alaska]"
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=brDCpvvIR48

    Fey: "I can see Russia from my house"
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=RKrUdIkoJEU
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    The headline is completely wrong. Every schoolboy knows that the USA neighbours Russia in Alaska. There are other howlers. Pisspoor stuff.

    How many American's "feel" they're furthest away ?
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    French polls coming thick and fast today

    Harris:

    Macron 24 (=)
    Le Pen 22 (-1) Lowest poll rating this year
    Fillon 20 (+1)
    Melenchon 19 (+1)

    http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-Indeed-Intentions-vote-election-presidentielle-LCP.pdf
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Is it just me or is there a large jump in 1973 and an obvious massive acceleration starting in 1992?

    https://twitter.com/DExEUgov/status/852534216025939968
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    On the left in the UK, it's been an oh-well issue for a while, which is why Corbyn conceded it soon after being elected as something where the party took a different view that he'd accept. The advent of Trump has stirred things a bit, since quite a lot of us (not just on the left) feel we can't be sure what mess he might get us into.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    To be fair, there often wasn't a lot of difference between what was said by Sarah Palin and what was said by Tina Fey.

    One for the Hall of Fame of political impersonation.
    She said

    They’re our next-door neighbors. And you can actually see Russia, from land, here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska.

    That's not quite what she said:
    Palin: "They [Russia] are right there, right next to our state [Alaska]"
    ttps://youtube.com/watch?v=brDCpvvIR48

    Fey: "I can see Russia from my house"
    ttps://youtube.com/watch?v=RKrUdIkoJEU
    She has a bunch of quotes on Russia and it's proximity. I think the one I've picked was the earliest reported.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    21,000lb bomb, so big they pushed it out of the back of a Hercules!
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-military-drops-mother-bombs-isis-afghanistan/

    Cue Trump tonight "We dropped the big bomb. We have the biggest bombs we do, the biggest bombs. ISIS no more, big bomb".
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Did the survey include the non-aligned countries?

    Sweden's next door to Russia. It spends less than 1.5% on defence and seems pretty content to be outside NATO.

    'Collective security' is meant to reduce costs, not increase them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    To be fair, there often wasn't a lot of difference between what was said by Sarah Palin and what was said by Tina Fey.

    One for the Hall of Fame of political impersonation.
    She said

    They’re our next-door neighbors. And you can actually see Russia, from land, here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska.

    That's not quite what she said:
    Palin: "They [Russia] are right there, right next to our state [Alaska]"
    ttps://youtube.com/watch?v=brDCpvvIR48

    Fey: "I can see Russia from my house"
    ttps://youtube.com/watch?v=RKrUdIkoJEU
    She has a bunch of quotes on Russia and it's proximity. I think the one I've picked was the earliest reported.
    Ha, maybe. *goes back to Google but ends up watching old SNL episodes from 2008* :)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    To be fair, there often wasn't a lot of difference between what was said by Sarah Palin and what was said by Tina Fey.

    One for the Hall of Fame of political impersonation.
    She said

    They’re our next-door neighbors. And you can actually see Russia, from land, here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska.

    Which is, of course, true.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    21,000lb bomb, so big they pushed it out of the back of a Hercules!
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-military-drops-mother-bombs-isis-afghanistan/

    Cue Trump tonight "We dropped the big bomb. We have the biggest bombs we do, the biggest bombs. ISIS no more, big bomb".
    A few emoji's as well !
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    21,000lb bomb, so big they pushed it out of the back of a Hercules!
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-military-drops-mother-bombs-isis-afghanistan/

    Cue Trump tonight "We dropped the big bomb. We have the biggest bombs we do, the biggest bombs. ISIS no more, big bomb".
    Mightily relevant to the thread; I bet that thing cost more than Estonia's entire defence budget.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    What she said was something like "because I was governor of Alaska I've thought a lot about Russia and understand the threat they pose to the USA"

    Which is a very reasonable point to make when challenged about her foreign affairs experience
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2017
    "In the UK, of course, Corbyn’s views are well known and could indeed play a major part in a general election campaign should he still be opposition leader then."

    Hmm. Regardless of polls, I'm not actually that sure a lot of British people would even know what NATO was if you asked them, much less caring that much about it.

    I think the much bigger problems for Corbyn are Trident, and his general pacifist outlook, especially with regards to jihadist groups. I don't think most people view Corbyn as a "terrorist sympathiser", but they do see him as ridiculously naive and not understanding how "the real world" works - they think he as PM would just try to sit down and negotiate with ISIS over a nice cup of tea with some naive view that they'd be "reasonable", and thus he (and by extension the country) would be ridden roughshod over - and, to top it off, that without Trident, Britain would then be a sitting duck to all the world's baddies that he'd just tried to appease.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited April 2017
    calum said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    21,000lb bomb, so big they pushed it out of the back of a Hercules!
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-military-drops-mother-bombs-isis-afghanistan/

    Cue Trump tonight "We dropped the big bomb. We have the biggest bombs we do, the biggest bombs. ISIS no more, big bomb".
    A few emoji's as well !
    BOOM! :o
    BIG BAD BOOM!! :triumph::D:sunglasses:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BudG said:

    French polls coming thick and fast today

    Harris:

    Macron 24 (=)
    Le Pen 22 (-1) Lowest poll rating this year
    Fillon 20 (+1)
    Melenchon 19 (+1)

    http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-Indeed-Intentions-vote-election-presidentielle-LCP.pdf

    Is this the first poll to have all the main candidates within 5 points of each other?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    21,000lb bomb, so big they pushed it out of the back of a Hercules!
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-military-drops-mother-bombs-isis-afghanistan/

    Cue Trump tonight "We dropped the big bomb. We have the biggest bombs we do, the biggest bombs. ISIS no more, big bomb".
    Mightily relevant to the thread; I bet that thing cost more than Estonia's entire defence budget.
    Depending on which source you believe, somewhere from $14m to $16m each.

    Estonian defence budget 2017, $498m.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548


    The polls have been more or less tied between Macron and LePen for ages with little real movement. Possibly LePen is a nose ahead, but not more than a nose. Their odds should be a lot closer, not 1.68 and 3.55 as they stand on Betfair at present. I think Macron is fair value to come top. He beats all comers in the second round.

    Good spot, hadn't seen that first-round-only market.

    Melanchon still inching up on latest ppolls, Le Pen faltering. exciting, whatever our preferences.
    My best position is Macron winning over Melenchon in the second round, with LePen below 20% in the first round. LePen under 20 is currently 18.5, and with her vote only just over 20 again not bad value.

    Thanks to Chris from Paris's early tips on Macron and Melenchon I am green across all outcomes. I owe him a bottle or two if we ever meet up.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    What she said was something like "because I was governor of Alaska I've thought a lot about Russia and understand the threat they pose to the USA"

    Which is a very reasonable point to make when challenged about her foreign affairs experience
    Sarah Palin said lots of silly things. This wasn't one of them.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Danny565 said:

    "In the UK, of course, Corbyn’s views are well known and could indeed play a major part in a general election campaign should he still be opposition leader then."

    Hmm. Regardless of polls, I'm not actually that sure a lot of British people would even know what NATO was if you asked them, much less caring that much about it.

    I think the much bigger problems for Corbyn are Trident, and his general pacifist outlook, especially with regards to jihadist groups. I don't think most people view Corbyn as a "terrorist sympathiser", but they do see him as ridiculously naive and not understanding how "the real world" works - they think he as PM would just try to sit down and negotiate with ISIS over a nice cup of tea with some naive view that they'd be "reasonable", and thus he (and by extension the country) would be ridden roughshod over - and, to top it off, that without Trident, Britain would then be a sitting duck to all the world's baddies that he'd just tried to appease.

    You've missed the difference between Trident and being defenceless.

    Europe's various non-aligned countries have perfectly viable armed services but they're for self-defence only and nonoe of them have ever seriously considered acquiring their own nuclear weapons.

    If Sweden doesn't need nuclear bombs, why does the UK? Strangely, no-one has ever answered this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Charles said:

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    What she said was something like "because I was governor of Alaska I've thought a lot about Russia and understand the threat they pose to the USA"

    Which is a very reasonable point to make when challenged about her foreign affairs experience
    Sarah Palin said lots of silly things. This wasn't one of them.
    Shows the danger of become a figure of mockery - you might well make a valid point, but it'll get lost because of how you are pereceived.

    Corbyn knows a thing or two about this.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited April 2017
    AndyJS said:

    BudG said:

    French polls coming thick and fast today

    Harris:

    Macron 24 (=)
    Le Pen 22 (-1) Lowest poll rating this year
    Fillon 20 (+1)
    Melenchon 19 (+1)

    http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-Indeed-Intentions-vote-election-presidentielle-LCP.pdf

    Is this the first poll to have all the main candidates within 5 points of each other?
    No, there have been several recently showing all four candidates covered by 5 points. The last BVA poll had them all covered by just 4 points.

    Edited to add, Le Pen's 22 is not only the lowest this year, it is the lowest since January 2015, when she also recorded 22 points.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Danny565 said:

    "In the UK, of course, Corbyn’s views are well known and could indeed play a major part in a general election campaign should he still be opposition leader then."

    Hmm. Regardless of polls, I'm not actually that sure a lot of British people would even know what NATO was if you asked them, much less caring that much about it.

    I think the much bigger problems for Corbyn are Trident, and his general pacifist outlook, especially with regards to jihadist groups. I don't think most people view Corbyn as a "terrorist sympathiser", but they do see him as ridiculously naive and not understanding how "the real world" works - they think he as PM would just try to sit down and negotiate with ISIS over a nice cup of tea with some naive view that they'd be "reasonable", and thus he (and by extension the country) would be ridden roughshod over - and, to top it off, that without Trident, Britain would then be a sitting duck to all the world's baddies that he'd just tried to appease.

    You've missed the difference between Trident and being defenceless.

    Europe's various non-aligned countries have perfectly viable armed services but they're for self-defence only and nonoe of them have ever seriously considered acquiring their own nuclear weapons.

    If Sweden doesn't need nuclear bombs, why does the UK? Strangely, no-one has ever answered this.
    Lots of people have answered that question many times. It may be you were not convinced by the answers, but that is not the same thing.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Danny565 said:

    "In the UK, of course, Corbyn’s views are well known and could indeed play a major part in a general election campaign should he still be opposition leader then."

    Hmm. Regardless of polls, I'm not actually that sure a lot of British people would even know what NATO was if you asked them, much less caring that much about it.

    I think the much bigger problems for Corbyn are Trident, and his general pacifist outlook, especially with regards to jihadist groups. I don't think most people view Corbyn as a "terrorist sympathiser", but they do see him as ridiculously naive and not understanding how "the real world" works - they think he as PM would just try to sit down and negotiate with ISIS over a nice cup of tea with some naive view that they'd be "reasonable", and thus he (and by extension the country) would be ridden roughshod over - and, to top it off, that without Trident, Britain would then be a sitting duck to all the world's baddies that he'd just tried to appease.

    You've missed the difference between Trident and being defenceless.

    Europe's various non-aligned countries have perfectly viable armed services but they're for self-defence only and nonoe of them have ever seriously considered acquiring their own nuclear weapons.

    If Sweden doesn't need nuclear bombs, why does the UK? Strangely, no-one has ever answered this.
    Apart from the Baltics, Alaska is the only former part of Russia that is now part of NATO surely.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2017

    Charles said:

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    What she said was something like "because I was governor of Alaska I've thought a lot about Russia and understand the threat they pose to the USA"

    Which is a very reasonable point to make when challenged about her foreign affairs experience
    Sarah Palin said lots of silly things. This wasn't one of them.
    In retrospect, the media monstering of Palin was ridiculous. Her comments taken out of context, small things blown up into making her seem an ignoramus, unverified claims being reported (I'm sure the "she tried to ban teaching of evolution" claims were eventually proven to be untrue, although only after all the big media outlets had reported them), sneering at irrelevant aspects of her private/family life, a caricature made of her supposedly extreme policy positions (in reality as Governor of Alaska was actually quite moderate by Republicans' standards).

    TBH, since they cried "Wolf" so loudly that time when it wasn't that warranted, it's not much surprise that Americans ignored the media a few years later when the much bigger Wolf of Trump came.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    21,000lb bomb, so big they pushed it out of the back of a Hercules!
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-military-drops-mother-bombs-isis-afghanistan/

    Cue Trump tonight "We dropped the big bomb. We have the biggest bombs we do, the biggest bombs. ISIS no more, big bomb".
    Mightily relevant to the thread; I bet that thing cost more than Estonia's entire defence budget.
    Depending on which source you believe, somewhere from $14m to $16m each.

    Estonian defence budget 2017, $498m.

    If it's $15m per bomb, as this is the only one ever dropped you can add in the entire design and development costs. Estonia wouldn't have much left over.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Alistair said:

    Is it just me or is there a large jump in 1973 and an obvious massive acceleration starting in 1992?

    https://twitter.com/DExEUgov/status/852534216025939968

    A big jump on joining the EU and worse performance after the introduction of the Euro, relative to other European countries, which may signal a decline on Brexit.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2017
    Right at the end of the thread, Mr Smithson doesn't let us down... Corbyn is crap...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Danny565 said:

    "In the UK, of course, Corbyn’s views are well known and could indeed play a major part in a general election campaign should he still be opposition leader then."

    Hmm. Regardless of polls, I'm not actually that sure a lot of British people would even know what NATO was if you asked them, much less caring that much about it.

    I think the much bigger problems for Corbyn are Trident, and his general pacifist outlook, especially with regards to jihadist groups. I don't think most people view Corbyn as a "terrorist sympathiser", but they do see him as ridiculously naive and not understanding how "the real world" works - they think he as PM would just try to sit down and negotiate with ISIS over a nice cup of tea with some naive view that they'd be "reasonable", and thus he (and by extension the country) would be ridden roughshod over - and, to top it off, that without Trident, Britain would then be a sitting duck to all the world's baddies that he'd just tried to appease.

    You've missed the difference between Trident and being defenceless.

    Europe's various non-aligned countries have perfectly viable armed services but they're for self-defence only and nonoe of them have ever seriously considered acquiring their own nuclear weapons.

    If Sweden doesn't need nuclear bombs, why does the UK? Strangely, no-one has ever answered this.
    Apart from the Baltics, Alaska is the only former part of Russia that is now part of NATO surely.

    Poland too.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    What she said was something like "because I was governor of Alaska I've thought a lot about Russia and understand the threat they pose to the USA"

    Which is a very reasonable point to make when challenged about her foreign affairs experience
    Sarah Palin said lots of silly things. This wasn't one of them.
    Shows the danger of become a figure of mockery - you might well make a valid point, but it'll get lost because of how you are pereceived.

    Corbyn knows a thing or two about this.
    And you can turn it around like Trump did and basically claim they are all ganging up on me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    FF43 said:

    Alistair said:

    Is it just me or is there a large jump in 1973 and an obvious massive acceleration starting in 1992?

    https://twitter.com/DExEUgov/status/852534216025939968

    A big jump on joining the EU and worse performance after the introduction of the Euro, relative to other European countries, which may signal a decline on Brexit.
    That's an interesting point. Has the fallout from the financial crisis disguised the fact that the Euro has done what it said on the tin and in time will come to be seen as a success story?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Danny565 said:

    Charles said:

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    What she said was something like "because I was governor of Alaska I've thought a lot about Russia and understand the threat they pose to the USA"

    Which is a very reasonable point to make when challenged about her foreign affairs experience
    Sarah Palin said lots of silly things. This wasn't one of them.
    In retrospect, the media monstering of Palin was ridiculous. Her comments taken out of context, small things blown up into making her seem an ignoramus, unverified claims being reported (I'm sure the "she tried to ban teaching of evolution" claims were eventually proven to be untrue, although only after all the big media outlets had reported them), sneering at irrelevant aspects of her private/family life, a caricature made of her supposedly extreme policy positions (in reality as Governor of Alaska was actually quite moderate by Republicans' standards).

    TBH, since they cried "Wolf" so loudly that time when it wasn't that warranted, it's not much surprise that Americans ignored the media a few years later when the much bigger Wolf of Trump came.
    On the other hand, Palin makes the Donald seem sane here, and that is not an easy task!

    https://youtu.be/xXjyJWUmTu0
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    FF43 said:

    Alistair said:

    Is it just me or is there a large jump in 1973 and an obvious massive acceleration starting in 1992?

    https://twitter.com/DExEUgov/status/852534216025939968

    A big jump on joining the EU and worse performance after the introduction of the Euro, relative to other European countries, which may signal a decline on Brexit.
    Flatlining between 1975 and 1985, growth with Thatcherism, the fall of the wall and collapse of communism and then a return to flatlining on EU expansion and eurozone mess.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    I think sooner or later Trump will find the US nuclear arsenal irresistible. Seriously.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Danny565 said:

    "In the UK, of course, Corbyn’s views are well known and could indeed play a major part in a general election campaign should he still be opposition leader then."

    Hmm. Regardless of polls, I'm not actually that sure a lot of British people would even know what NATO was if you asked them, much less caring that much about it.

    I think the much bigger problems for Corbyn are Trident, and his general pacifist outlook, especially with regards to jihadist groups. I don't think most people view Corbyn as a "terrorist sympathiser", but they do see him as ridiculously naive and not understanding how "the real world" works - they think he as PM would just try to sit down and negotiate with ISIS over a nice cup of tea with some naive view that they'd be "reasonable", and thus he (and by extension the country) would be ridden roughshod over - and, to top it off, that without Trident, Britain would then be a sitting duck to all the world's baddies that he'd just tried to appease.

    You've missed the difference between Trident and being defenceless.

    Europe's various non-aligned countries have perfectly viable armed services but they're for self-defence only and nonoe of them have ever seriously considered acquiring their own nuclear weapons.

    If Sweden doesn't need nuclear bombs, why does the UK? Strangely, no-one has ever answered this.
    Apart from the Baltics, Alaska is the only former part of Russia that is now part of NATO surely.

    Poland too.
    Good point. I think also there was a Russian Oblast in 1914 that later became part of Turkey. The Kars Oblast.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    I think sooner or later Trump will find the US nuclear arsenal irresistible. Seriously.
    he will never deploy it , he will be stopped.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    FF43 said:

    Alistair said:

    Is it just me or is there a large jump in 1973 and an obvious massive acceleration starting in 1992?

    https://twitter.com/DExEUgov/status/852534216025939968

    A big jump on joining the EU and worse performance after the introduction of the Euro, relative to other European countries, which may signal a decline on Brexit.
    That's an interesting point. Has the fallout from the financial crisis disguised the fact that the Euro has done what it said on the tin and in time will come to be seen as a success story?
    Sound money is a success story. Serial devaluation is not.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    I think sooner or later Trump will find the US nuclear arsenal irresistible. Seriously.
    he will never deploy it , he will be stopped.
    We only hope that there enough sane people around between the figurative big red button and the actual one!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Technically the US is closer to Russia than the UK when you include Alaska
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    SeanT said:

    Back from an afternoon lazing about with my older daughter in Regent's Park. There should be a compound German word for the pleasure gained from simply being with one's kids, doing stupid things like making up nonsense words and saying "there's a mallard" or "I just saw a ant" in funny voices.

    It is an intense and unique kind of happiness.

    FPT isam's "Le Pen is mightier than Le Fraud" is one of the best puns I've read anywhere, ever, on any subject.

    Cheers! I didn't realise it had been mentioned. Looking at the last thread, thanks to @AlastairMeeks for bringing it up! :blush:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited April 2017
    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Not surprised by the findings of that poll.

    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    I think sooner or later Trump will find the US nuclear arsenal irresistible. Seriously.
    +1.

    Several in the US media (like Bill Kristol) seem to have done a huge U-Turn on Trump because of the missile strikes in Syria and now this. Don't get how one can just be impressed by bomb dropping in of itself.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
    Nope just 41% now, leaving 28% up for grabs
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Wouldn't have thought that Sarah Palin was a great NATOvist..

    Trivia point: she never said that she could see Russia from her house. Like Jim Callaghan and "Crisis? What Crisis?", the words were put into her mouth by someone else (Tina Fey, on this occasion).
    What she said was something like "because I was governor of Alaska I've thought a lot about Russia and understand the threat they pose to the USA"

    Which is a very reasonable point to make when challenged about her foreign affairs experience
    Sarah Palin said lots of silly things. This wasn't one of them.
    Shows the danger of become a figure of mockery - you might well make a valid point, but it'll get lost because of how you are pereceived.

    Corbyn knows a thing or two about this.
    And you can turn it around like Trump did and basically claim they are all ganging up on me.
    Trump is a rare animal in that regard I think. After all, Corbynistas moan all the time about being ganged up on, but when the man himself does it my sympathy for the admittedly difficult position he is in diminishes. Trump has what Terry Pratchett once referred to as Charisn'tma - he's so terrible he fascinates, even attracts people. He's also capable of being funny.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Not surprised by the findings of that poll.

    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    I think sooner or later Trump will find the US nuclear arsenal irresistible. Seriously.
    +1.

    Several in the US media (like Bill Kristol) seem to have done a huge U-Turn on Trump because of the missile strikes in Syria and now this. Don't get how one can just be impressed by bomb dropping in of itself.

    The speed of Trumps reverse gear is truly impressive. Within 2 months he is a puppet of the Washington machine.

    Two Months In, Trump Finds Big Promises Are Hard to Keep https://bloom.bg/2oqwtRO
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    "WASHINGTON — The US military has dropped an enormous bomb in Afghanistan, according to four US military officials with direct knowledge of the mission.

    A GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb, nicknamed MOAB, was dropped at 7 p.m. local time Thursday, the sources said.

    The MOAB is also known as the “mother of all bombs.” A MOAB is a 21,600-pound, GPS-guided munition that is America’s most powerful non-nuclear bomb."

    http://fox4kc.com/2017/04/13/us-drops-largest-non-nuclear-bomb-in-afghanistan/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
    Nope just 41% now, leaving 28% up for grabs
    That 60/40 second round split hasn't budged for months.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited April 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
    Nope just 41% now, leaving 28% up for grabs
    That 60/40 second round split hasn't budged for months.
    58.5% to 41.5% is tighter than 60/40 and Le Pen is now just 3.5% less than Trump got in the US last November and Yes got in indyref 2014 with IFOP
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Not surprised by the findings of that poll.

    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    I think sooner or later Trump will find the US nuclear arsenal irresistible. Seriously.
    +1.

    Several in the US media (like Bill Kristol) seem to have done a huge U-Turn on Trump because of the missile strikes in Syria and now this. Don't get how one can just be impressed by bomb dropping in of itself.

    The speed of Trumps reverse gear is truly impressive. Within 2 months he is a puppet of the Washington machine.

    Two Months In, Trump Finds Big Promises Are Hard to Keep https://bloom.bg/2oqwtRO
    Watching CNN now, a guy from the NYT was saying that Trump is using 'tactics' not strategy.

    Now he's lavishing praise on China!

    Huge U-Turns on NATO, China and Syria in less than a week - IMHO, I think it's all to get his poll numbers up. There seems to be no clear strategy from his adminstration re Syria. He knows this last 100 days haven't gone well, with Gorsuch the only truly 'big' win he's had. Trouble is, dropping bombs is not going to move his numbers significantly.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
    Nope just 41% now, leaving 28% up for grabs
    That 60/40 second round split hasn't budged for months.
    58.5% to 41.5% is tighter than 60/40 and Le Pen is now just 3.5% less than Trump got in the US last November and Yes got in indyref 2014 with IFOP
    She has got to get to the run-off first. The 22% she scored with Harris today is the lowest since Jan 2015. She should never be a 1/6 shot to finish in top 2.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    Coincidentally or not, the second round score for Le Pen is close to Le Pen/Melenchon combined. That's a lot of very pissed off French voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    Coincidentally or not, the second round score for Le Pen is close to Le Pen/Melenchon combined. That's a lot of very pissed off French voters.
    Yes, they both feed off the same anti globalisation, anti corporation feeling, just Le Pen has a more nationalist tone while Melenchon is more anti capitalist
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
    Nope just 41% now, leaving 28% up for grabs
    That 60/40 second round split hasn't budged for months.
    58.5% to 41.5% is tighter than 60/40 and Le Pen is now just 3.5% less than Trump got in the US last November and Yes got in indyref 2014 with IFOP
    She has got to get to the run-off first. The 22% she scored with Harris today is the lowest since Jan 2015. She should never be a 1/6 shot to finish in top 2.
    Harris has the best Macron results of any pollster and the worst for Le Pen, yet even with Harris she still makes the runoff
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
    Nope just 41% now, leaving 28% up for grabs
    That 60/40 second round split hasn't budged for months.
    58.5% to 41.5% is tighter than 60/40 and Le Pen is now just 3.5% less than Trump got in the US last November and Yes got in indyref 2014 with IFOP
    It is not credible to claim that the polls are massively out, yet 1.5% is highly significant. Earlier today we saw a poll of 65/35 for the second round. I think the result will be more like that. Melenchon is certainly anti-establishment, but also very anti LePen.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    Trump has what Terry Pratchett once referred to as Charisn'tma - he's so terrible he fascinates, even attracts people. He's also capable of being funny.

    Corbyn isn't far behind...

    https://twitter.com/jake_wilde/status/852584969117589504
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited April 2017
    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
    Nope just 41% now, leaving 28% up for grabs
    That 60/40 second round split hasn't budged for months.
    58.5% to 41.5% is tighter than 60/40 and Le Pen is now just 3.5% less than Trump got in the US last November and Yes got in indyref 2014 with IFOP
    She has got to get to the run-off first. The 22% she scored with Harris today is the lowest since Jan 2015. She should never be a 1/6 shot to finish in top 2.
    Harris has the best Macron results of any pollster and the worst for Le Pen, yet even with Harris she still makes the runoff
    And the 22.5% with Opinionway today?

    They are usually fairly favourable towards Le Pen.

    Edit. Sorry that was Elabe
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Alistair said:

    Is it just me or is there a large jump in 1973 and an obvious massive acceleration starting in 1992?

    https://twitter.com/DExEUgov/status/852534216025939968

    That's a silly chart as it is exports plus imports. It should show exports only as a percent of GDP, as that chart shows borrowing to import Chinese tat as a positive.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    HYUFD said:

    Technically the US is closer to Russia than the UK when you include Alaska

    Two miles between their respective Bering Strait islands, iirc.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/gdnpolitics/status/852547572916826113


    Most of Labour's support is down to Corbyn, Diane Abbott says

    I think she should have just stopped at: Most of Labour's support is down.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Is it just me or is there a large jump in 1973 and an obvious massive acceleration starting in 1992?

    https://twitter.com/DExEUgov/status/852534216025939968

    That's a silly chart as it is exports plus imports. It should show exports only as a percent of GDP, as that chart shows borrowing to import Chinese tat as a positive.
    This one is a classic too. Our exports to Lichtenstein are booming...

    https://twitter.com/DExEUgov/status/852539060891594752
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Is Trump dropping the biggest bomb ever on ISIS old news?

    21,000lb bomb, so big they pushed it out of the back of a Hercules!
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-military-drops-mother-bombs-isis-afghanistan/

    Cue Trump tonight "We dropped the big bomb. We have the biggest bombs we do, the biggest bombs. ISIS no more, big bomb".
    Mightily relevant to the thread; I bet that thing cost more than Estonia's entire defence budget.
    Point of order: Estonia is one of only five NATO countries to spend more than 2% of GDP on defence, and is only a smidgen behind the UK (2.16% vs 2.21%).

    Another random point: the US includes a lot more in its military spending number than the UK does. For example the Department of Veteran Affairs pays for healthcare for veterans (rather than Medicair/Medicaid) and that therefore is included in the defence budget.

    Random point number three: the worst NATO country (ignoring Iceland) as far as military spend goes is... no, not Gemany or Italy... but Canada who doesn't even make 1%.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/european-couple-stunned-as-uk-born-children-denied-residency?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other#comment-96546493

    Off topic, but on the endlessly tedious subject of Brexit, the government could take immediate steps to provide certainty for EU nationals living here. It doesn't mean giving unilateral guarantees, but they could for instance create a fast track to permanent residency for people who have lived here for x years exercising treaty rights. They could exempt the bizarre loopholes that arose from no-one ever foreseeing Brexit, ie the requirement for stay at home mums/carers to have private health insurance for periods outside of employment. They could do this very easily, with minimal legislation, because they know precisely what the issues are. It has nothing at all to do with article 50.

    It is very interesting, and says much about Brexit and the forces behind it, as to how days go by, and nothing happens on this front.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
    Nope just 41% now, leaving 28% up for grabs
    That 60/40 second round split hasn't budged for months.
    58.5% to 41.5% is tighter than 60/40 and Le Pen is now just 3.5% less than Trump got in the US last November and Yes got in indyref 2014 with IFOP
    It is not credible to claim that the polls are massively out, yet 1.5% is highly significant. Earlier today we saw a poll of 65/35 for the second round. I think the result will be more like that. Melenchon is certainly anti-establishment, but also very anti LePen.
    I think 65/35 is out, Le Pen will get more Fillon and Melenchon voters than that but even 35% for Le Pen would be almost double what her father got in 2002
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
    Nope just 41% now, leaving 28% up for grabs
    That 60/40 second round split hasn't budged for months.
    58.5% to 41.5% is tighter than 60/40 and Le Pen is now just 3.5% less than Trump got in the US last November and Yes got in indyref 2014 with IFOP
    She has got to get to the run-off first. The 22% she scored with Harris today is the lowest since Jan 2015. She should never be a 1/6 shot to finish in top 2.
    Harris has the best Macron results of any pollster and the worst for Le Pen, yet even with Harris she still makes the runoff
    And the 22.5% with Opinionway today?

    They are usually fairly favourable towards Le Pen.

    Edit. Sorry that was Elabe
    Elabe is not that favourable to Le Pen either, Opinionway today had Le Pen on 24% to Macron's 23%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:

    Technically the US is closer to Russia than the UK when you include Alaska

    Two miles between their respective Bering Strait islands, iirc.
    Indeed
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
    Nope just 41% now, leaving 28% up for grabs
    That 60/40 second round split hasn't budged for months.
    58.5% to 41.5% is tighter than 60/40 and Le Pen is now just 3.5% less than Trump got in the US last November and Yes got in indyref 2014 with IFOP
    It is not credible to claim that the polls are massively out, yet 1.5% is highly significant. Earlier today we saw a poll of 65/35 for the second round. I think the result will be more like that. Melenchon is certainly anti-establishment, but also very anti LePen.
    I think 65/35 is out, Le Pen will get more Fillon and Melenchon voters than that but even 35% for Le Pen would be almost double what her father got in 2002
    She would still be a heavy loser.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    She was misquoted: Labour support is down due to Corbyn.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Poll from Ifop-Fiducial sampling 2,797 voters:

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19.0%
    Mélenchon 19.0%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    SeanT said:

    Time for some China porn. Haven't done this in a while. But the world is still changing around us, as we bicker about Brexit


    China now has the world's biggest banking system, overtaking the eurozone and America (partly thanks to debt)

    https://www.ft.com/content/14f929de-ffc5-11e6-96f8-3700c5664d30

    China is now Germany's biggest trading partner, overtaking France and America

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/24/china-overtakes-us-and-france-as-germanys-biggest-trading-partner.html

    China has overtaken Germany as the biggest machine tool exporter to Russia

    http://www.dw.com/en/machine-exports-to-russia-china-overtakes-germany/a-38380073

    China has overtaken America in online EdTech

    http://www.fox34.com/story/35131435/china-overtakes-americas-lead-in-online-edtech-companies

    China has overtaken America as biggest foreign investor in Pakistan (and Malaysia etc etc)

    http://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/china-overtakes-us-as-the-largest-foreign-investor-to-pakistan/626490/

    China overtakes Australia as biggest source of tourists in Bali

    https://coconuts.co/bali/news/china-overtakes-australia-biggest-source-foreign-tourists-bali/

    China has overtaken America as home to most of the world's largest 500 companies

    http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/02/investors-surge-gold-trump-china/


    Epochal.

    China also has the world's biggest population so it is not that surprising really
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    SeanT said:

    Time for some China porn. Haven't done this in a while. But the world is still changing around us, as we bicker about Brexit


    China now has the world's biggest banking system, overtaking the eurozone and America (partly thanks to debt)

    https://www.ft.com/content/14f929de-ffc5-11e6-96f8-3700c5664d30

    China is now Germany's biggest trading partner, overtaking France and America

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/24/china-overtakes-us-and-france-as-germanys-biggest-trading-partner.html

    China has overtaken Germany as the biggest machine tool exporter to Russia

    http://www.dw.com/en/machine-exports-to-russia-china-overtakes-germany/a-38380073

    China has overtaken America in online EdTech

    http://www.fox34.com/story/35131435/china-overtakes-americas-lead-in-online-edtech-companies

    China has overtaken America as biggest foreign investor in Pakistan (and Malaysia etc etc)

    http://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/china-overtakes-us-as-the-largest-foreign-investor-to-pakistan/626490/

    China overtakes Australia as biggest source of tourists in Bali

    https://coconuts.co/bali/news/china-overtakes-australia-biggest-source-foreign-tourists-bali/

    China has overtaken America as home to most of the world's largest 500 companies

    http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/02/investors-surge-gold-trump-china/


    Epochal.

    Most executions as well.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
    Nope just 41% now, leaving 28% up for grabs
    That 60/40 second round split hasn't budged for months.
    58.5% to 41.5% is tighter than 60/40 and Le Pen is now just 3.5% less than Trump got in the US last November and Yes got in indyref 2014 with IFOP
    She has got to get to the run-off first. The 22% she scored with Harris today is the lowest since Jan 2015. She should never be a 1/6 shot to finish in top 2.
    Harris has the best Macron results of any pollster and the worst for Le Pen, yet even with Harris she still makes the runoff
    You seem to want her to succeed.
    I think she will make it to the final round but will then be soundly beaten by whoever is there with her.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP

    Le Pen 23.5%
    Macron 22.5%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    Hamon 8.5%

    Runoff
    Macron 58.5%
    Le Pen 41.5%

    (31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)

    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf

    69% of Fillon supporters going to Macron then...
    Nope just 41% now, leaving 28% up for grabs
    That 60/40 second round split hasn't budged for months.
    58.5% to 41.5% is tighter than 60/40 and Le Pen is now just 3.5% less than Trump got in the US last November and Yes got in indyref 2014 with IFOP
    It is not credible to claim that the polls are massively out, yet 1.5% is highly significant. Earlier today we saw a poll of 65/35 for the second round. I think the result will be more like that. Melenchon is certainly anti-establishment, but also very anti LePen.
    I think 65/35 is out, Le Pen will get more Fillon and Melenchon voters than that but even 35% for Le Pen would be almost double what her father got in 2002
    She would still be a heavy loser.
    35% for the Front National would be its highest ever score, 41.5% in a French presidential elections as IFOP has it today would be a big warning shot across the bows of the French establishment
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:

    Technically the US is closer to Russia than the UK when you include Alaska

    Two miles between their respective Bering Strait islands, iirc.
    Indeed
    Which island does Sarah Palin live on?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:

    Technically the US is closer to Russia than the UK when you include Alaska

    Two miles between their respective Bering Strait islands, iirc.
    Indeed
    Which island does Sarah Palin live on?
    Again, she never said what everyone thinks she said.
This discussion has been closed.