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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What ‘good’ will look like for the parties in this year’s May
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What ‘good’ will look like for the parties in this year’s May elections
The expectations game is an unavoidable part of politics and one that pundits and practitioners play with relish. It is, of course, such an intrinsic part of betting that it’s difficult to meaningfully isolate betting from expectations.
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UKIP will be lucky not to be wiped out. Relatively few of their Cllrs appear to be mounting credible defences in the first place.
Surprising to see from this outlet. However, the article has a lot of good arguments.
'the 2017 Scottish local elections are the last set in which the SNP can make sizable gains, which after 2015 and 2016, is the minimum expected. Salmond talked about gaining Glasgow in 2012; his successor should pull off the feat. That alone would make for a good night, though outside Scotland few will notice the detail, particularly as the STV system means not that many seats will change compared with FPTP, and most councils will end up NOC anyway.'
It is worth pointing out that its now been six years since Scotland last held local council elections, and they were last held at the same time that the SNP gained their historic majority win at Holyrood in 2011. More importantly, that was over three years before the Independence Referendum was held.
To say that a week can be a long time in politics is an understatement when you consider just how the political landscape in Scotland has changed in the last six years. There is absolutely no doubt that the SNP are totally focussed on finally gaining control of Glasgow Council after they routed SLab in the city in the 2015 and 2016 GE and Holyrood elections. Anything less than gaining full control of Glasgow City Council should be seen as yet another set back personally for Nicola Sturgeon and her SNP Government following their failure to retain their majority at Holyrood last year.
Money is an issue, but not the only one. Britons also lead much less healthy lifestyles than our European neighbours. We are fatter, lazier, and less willing to do what professionals say. Healthcare systems have evolved alongside other aspects of society and the NHS reflects that as much as anywhere else. It doesn't mean that it is unchangeable, but it does mean that the change has to be alongside other aspects of society. Social expectations of what the health care system should do need to change first.
The other big problem is training and recruitment of staff. Governments of all hues have found it convenient to retrict access and control costs by not training enough doctors, nurses and other professionals and not treating staff well enough to keep them. We do recruit heavily abroad, but that flow has gone into reverse with Brexit. The oft stated greivance about not getting a scan the same or next day is principally a problem of staff retention.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/14/desperate-hospitals-beg-doctors-to-take-on-extra-shifts-at-95-an-hour?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
Good for other parties would be unprecedented Labour defeats followed by continuation of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.
And her husband corresponding losses. Twas ever thus ....
F1: final practice is from 1-2pm so the pre-qualifying article should be up probably between 2.30-3pm.
On-topic: Comrade Herdson, order yourself a marzipan hat for the inevitable humiliation you will face come polling day! As if Chairman Corbyn could lose votes. He is prepared for any propaganda attack launched from the armada of lickspittle capitalist media organisations!
The parade of unwavering support for the Supreme Leader will go on in anticipated magnificence!
Labour Excellent Night: Any net gains and gaining control of Carmarthenshire
Labour Average Night: No more than 57 net losses and losing control of only Cardiff
Labour Bad Night: No more than 114 net losses and losing Cardiff and Swansea
Labour Horrific Night: No more than 171 net losses, losing Cardiff, Swansea, Newport
Labour Disaster Area: More than 171 net losses and ending up with no councils under majority control
Plaid Cymru Excellent Night: More than 64 net gains, gaining control of Ynys Môn, Gwynedd, Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire and Rhondda
Plaid Cymru Average Night: More than 48 net gains, gaining control of Ynys Môn, Gwynedd, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire
Plaid Cymru Bad Night: More than 32 net gains, gaining control of Ynys Môn, Gwynedd and Ceredigion
Plaid Cymru Horrific Night: More than 16 net gains, gaining control of gaining control of Ynys Môn and Gwynedd
Plaid Cymru Disaster Area: Any net losses and losing lead party status in Gwynedd and Ceredigion
Conservative Excellent Night: More than 40 net gains, gaining control of Vale of Glamorgan
Conservative Average Night: More than 30 net gains, becoming largest party on Vale of Glamorgan
Conservative Bad Night: More than 20 net gains, no change in status
Conservative Horrific Night: More than 10 net gains, no change in status
Conservative Disaster Area: No change in seats, no change in status
Liberal Democrats Excellent Night: More than 28 net gains, gaining control of Cardiff and Swansea
Liberal Democrats Average Night: More than 21 net gains, gaining control of Cardiff
Liberal Democrats Bad Night: More than 14 net gains
Liberal Democrats Horrific Night: No gains at all
Liberal Democrat Disaster Area: Any net losses
And it is cheap.
But it is stuck in the past, and way too big and complex to manage effectively. It needs serious reform - we could deliver so much more with the money that we have available.
But that needs political parties to cooperate effectively and try to work out a new plan to create a healthcare system that is optimised for the 21st century
Thd Tories lost a majority of over 23,000 in the Christchurch by-election of 1993.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/853024718542307329
Where's my club ....
In contrast the Scottish Tories have generally had their vote spread more thinly and even with an STV system this brings down the return in Councillors. It will be an interesting sub plot whether the expected Tory lead over Labour in Scotland in the share of the vote actually produces more councillors. I expect it to be very close.
In 2012 the SNP got 32% of the vote. They will exceed that by a substantial margin this time, probably in the low 40s. These results will consolidate their position as the dominant party in Scottish politics and the Tories as the somewhat distant opposition. It is a remarkable achievement for a party that has been in power for so long but it is mainly achieved by keeping their eyes on the prize of independence at the price of neglecting day to day governance. Only when Scotland wearies of this neverendum will their dominance falter and that has not happened yet.
Your belief of Browns benevolence is is mystifying. Most people get very angry when they think of what Brown did.
Well, let's see. New Labour gave us incompetent and uneven devolution which has led to a referendum on Scottish independence, with another being asked for now.
They gave use* the worst recession in history.
Brown reneged upon a manifesto promise to hold a referendum on Lisbon.
The race card was played against anyone who wasn't culturally sensitive enough, which worked wonderfully in Rotherham.
Blair and Brown sowed the seeds of discontent, the harvest being largely reaped (Brown's economic incompetence aside) when they were out of office.
That said, I remain unconvinced by May. But when the alternative is a 'friend of Hamas', that's no alternative at all.
Edited extra bit: us*.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-leave-voters-consumer-confidence-remainers-buoyant-article-50-trigger-eu-talks-a7680481.html
More seriously I would expect peak Nat to be around 2018-19. After that there will be too many awkward domestic questions about their record in government and the beahviour of their members for them to rise much higher, and independence will either have been achieved or brushed off the table for good. This may therefore be their peak year in terms of electoral results.
Until and unless Labour stop talking Britain down they will never be trusted with power again.
Listening to some of you last night I thought there would be at least one mushroom cloud on the horizon........
As for budgets unravelling, 10p tax band springs to mind. That unravelled within six hours but it took Brown a year to actually do anything about it.
Near pariah status is a silly exaggeration. We are unpopular with the European Commission, a bunch of failed crackpots whose leader appears drunk in public and greets his fellow right wing political leaders with the Nazi salute. Theresa May is (unfortunately too literally) hand in hand with Donald Trump, a funny way of looking like a pariah.
And then, when even Labour's saner and more intelligent members such as yourself talk like this, they wonder why nobody wants to vote for them.
Don't suggest the country in which everyone you need to vote for you lives is nearing pariah status.
And from the horses mouth:
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_health.html
FACT
EU rules have weakened safety checks on doctors making patients less safe and have held back cancer research
FACT
The EU is taking more control of the NHS and forcing more privatisation
FACT
Labour MPs have warned that EU proposals could lead to the ‘demise of the publicly-funded National Health Service’
Morning, Mr.D.
Remember that the large temperature differences make final practice a slightly less than reliable guide to qualifying, particularly as Mercedes reputedly still don't like the heat.
I see Raikkonen has taken a new engine; perhaps not ideal so early on. I wouldn't like to see Ferrari or Vettel's title challenge clobbered by mechanical problems.
Agree entirely on first and third practice not being much use. Red Bull looked surprisingly swift in the second session.
After independence their job will be done and I would expect a realignment along a left/right axis of several nationalist parties.
Being critical of government policy and action is not the same as talking Britain down. Boris Johnson's absolute incapacity to represent the UK competently and effectively abroad is more damaging to this country's interests than anything an irrelevance from the Labour party can say. Likewise, when cabinet ministers like Liam Fox's assert that we share values with a murderous thug like the President of the Philippines that does more harm to perceptions of us abroad than anything written by a left-wing journalist in a UK newspaper.
Planned Ayrshire Turnip Harvest
Why did the Conservatives refuse to stand a candidate in Richmond Park ? Did they not think the local electorate was entitled to support the Government view of being pro-Heathrow ?
The cynic might argue the absence of a Conservative candidate enabled Conservative activists to go and work for Goldsmith as they wouldn't be actively campaigning against a Conservative candidate because there wasn't one.
This is obfuscation - the Conservatives would have been more than happy if Zac had won and would in time have re-admitted him to the fold. Richmond Park stands as the only serious electoral setback the Conservatives have suffered under May's leadership (so far).
The SNP are riding high for now, but the past suggests that even a monopoly position in Scottish politics can disappear both quickly and unexpectedly.
And does it ever get more LOLtastic than Labour complaining about large-scale misrepresentations about the NHS during political campaigns?
When it became apparent that despite the change of government it was too politically difficult for an inexperienced and not very intelligent Chancellor to sort the mess out in a shortish timeframe, that rating was rightly removed.
Leave winning the referendum and triggering a political doomsday machine will ultimately be what finishes off any notion that leaving the EU is a good idea. Manning the campaign phones could never have that effect.
I want this country to trade more with the Philippines (and Brexit was a fairly big subject on my second visit) and a few cheap (free) words about Duterte to smooth the process helps our profile in the country. You didn't have any such problems when Osborne was wining and dining the Chinese a couple of years ago or when they got the full state visit treatment with Dave. China is a full on police state with no free elections, yet when we befriend a democratic nation suddenly it's terrible.
Additionally most people out of the country don't give a shit what Liam Fox says or does, his comments are purely for the domestic audience of the country he is visiting. And I think we do have a lot to admire about Duterte, he was given the worst hand in all of SE Asia, now the Philippine economy is booming, there is hope for the millions of poor where under previous leaders there was absolutely fuck all.
I think many would take a more nuanced view and that entails criticism of the current Government which is perfectly reasonable in a democracy or is any criticism "talking the country down" ?
It'll require good development and some luck, but 46 was too long, I think. Only put a few pounds on, mind.
My favourite example was in about 1999 when Der Spiegel published an article taking Hague's criticism of Labour at face value - comparing the NHS to Zimbabwe, our roads to the tracks in India, using the railways with a visit to a prostitute who specialises in bondage - but then finishing the article with the comment, 'but the only thing worse than all this would be a Conservative government!'
To quote Hamlet, 'tis sport to have an engineer hoist on his own petard.
The fact remains, the party machinery was not available to Zac. He stood as an independent and lost as an independent. Facts, not pedantry.
The Conservative government will face most severe and mounting difficulties over the coming years but will hold the Corbyn ace as insurance and the LibDems not strong enough to mount an effective short term challenge.
The opposition vacuum will not last for ever however. The clock is ticking, albeit the sound is more melodious at present for the Tories.
You wouldn't have seen such cowardice from the real Iron Lady, Margaret Thatcher, Mrs T would have put up a candidate against Zac.
However, the public sector (even though freezes still often leave them with better deals) is better organised, closer to the political centre and has the potential to cause much more disruption should they get restive.
I just wonder how people striking to preserve pay increases and decent pensions will look to those people who have had pay cuts and their pensions utterly trashed. It's one reason why I decided not to take part in the last teacher's strike, and why I will be switching unions once the NUT has finished its takeover of the ATL.
You get back to being a proper opposition.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bermondsey_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Why did the Conservatives not stand a candidate against Zac ? Why were the pro-Government supporters in Richmond Park denied the opportunity to vote for a Conservative candidate ?
You've still not learnt the lessons of the Brown era clearly.
It must be very hard to see your side out of power, and led by a fool, but you spoil your case with such exaggeration.
As it is, the only people who see this as a Tory loss are ultra-partisan (to the point of being outright blinkered) Lib Dems. Exhibit A: Smithson.