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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling Matters on the Lib Dem fightback – how high can their support go as the party of Remain?

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Leo Barasi talked about the Lib Dem fightback with Mark Pack, a campaign strategist and expert on the party. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here.

Read the full story here

Jonathan

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

IanB2

Second!

The LibDem vote has always correlated strongly with what canvassers would put down as soft Tories. Hence all the second places back to Liberal days in the Home Counties. At the moment soft Tories are happy to send the government a message about Brexit by voting LibDem locally, but are telling pollsters they are sticking with May for the GE. Whether that changes depends on how Brexit pans out.

IanB2

A party can also go from third to second if another is working hard at going from second to third.

Fishing

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

Very true.

(Though I'd qualify by saying as well as locally, they can sometimes manage that regionally, in SW England for example).

HYUFD

The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

Beverley_C

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

My local Lib Dems cannot even organise leaflet drops or candidates knocking on doors. To be fair, neither can the Greens or various independents. So that leaves me the increasingly swivel-eyed loons or back-to-70s-socialists to choose from.

Theuniondivvie

https://twitter.com/mollynotm0lly/status/853597037484486656

rkrkrk

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

David_Evershed

I seem to recall that one third of lib Dem voters voted LEAVE in the referendum.

So by being so pro REMAIN they risk losing support as well as winning support.

Rather than being seen as liberal, Lib Dems risk being tagged as pro EU, which is not the same by any means.

David_Evershed

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

Sean_F

My guess would be 20% or so, but significantly higher in SW London, posh bits of Inner London, and the M3 and M4 corridors. Being the party to reverse Brexit is a good way of building support between now and 2020, but will be of decreasing relevance thereafter.

David_Evershed

Beverley_C said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

My local Lib Dems cannot even organise leaflet drops or candidates knocking on doors. To be fair, neither can the Greens or various independents. So that leaves me the increasingly swivel-eyed loons or back-to-70s-socialists to choose from.

Lib Dems, like all challenger parties, will be targetting certain areas where they can win (Winning Here) rather than wasting effort on lost causes. It is an outcome of the First Past the Post voting system.

Sean_F

David_Evershed said:

I seem to recall that one third of lib Dem voters voted LEAVE in the referendum.

So by being so pro REMAIN they risk losing support as well as winning support.

Rather than being seen as liberal, Lib Dems risk being tagged as pro EU, which is not the same by any means.

There seems to be considerable churn with Leave Lib Dems going Conservative but Remain supporters coming from other parties.

isam

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/mollynotm0lly/status/853597037484486656

Phew, does that mean it's ok to mention it now?

kle4

David_Evershed said:

I seem to recall that one third of lib Dem voters voted LEAVE in the referendum.

So by being so pro REMAIN they risk losing support as well as winning support.

Rather than being seen as liberal, Lib Dems risk being tagged as pro EU, which is not the same by any means.

Quite a few articles on Lib Dem Voice on the problem of how to keep Leave liberal voters while trying to expand with the current strategy.

Beverley_C

David_Evershed said:

Beverley_C said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

My local Lib Dems cannot even organise leaflet drops or candidates knocking on doors. To be fair, neither can the Greens or various independents. So that leaves me the increasingly swivel-eyed loons or back-to-70s-socialists to choose from.

Lib Dems, like all challenger parties, will be targetting certain areas where they can win (Winning Here) rather than wasting effort on lost causes. It is an outcome of the First Past the Post voting system.

Well then, I shall assist them in their desire not to win locally. Silly sods.

kle4

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

kle4

Beverley_C said:

David_Evershed said:

Beverley_C said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

My local Lib Dems cannot even organise leaflet drops or candidates knocking on doors. To be fair, neither can the Greens or various independents. So that leaves me the increasingly swivel-eyed loons or back-to-70s-socialists to choose from.

Lib Dems, like all challenger parties, will be targetting certain areas where they can win (Winning Here) rather than wasting effort on lost causes. It is an outcome of the First Past the Post voting system.

Well then, I shall assist them in their desire not to win locally. Silly sods.

There's only so many resources to go around. If with no effort they do well in an area, maybe they'll pour in resources next time.

David_Evershed

Beverley_C said:

David_Evershed said:

Beverley_C said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

My local Lib Dems cannot even organise leaflet drops or candidates knocking on doors. To be fair, neither can the Greens or various independents. So that leaves me the increasingly swivel-eyed loons or back-to-70s-socialists to choose from.

Lib Dems, like all challenger parties, will be targetting certain areas where they can win (Winning Here) rather than wasting effort on lost causes. It is an outcome of the First Past the Post voting system.

Well then, I shall assist them in their desire not to win locally. Silly sods.

We'll put you down as a 'possible'.

Theuniondivvie

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/mollynotm0lly/status/853597037484486656

Phew, does that mean it's ok to mention it now?

There seemed to be copious mentioning which ceased when the 'them Muslamics' line of enquiry fizzled out.

I do hope you've not felt unduly constrained.

isam

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/mollynotm0lly/status/853597037484486656

Phew, does that mean it's ok to mention it now?

There seemed to be copious mentioning which ceased when the 'them Muslamics' line of enquiry fizzled out.

I do hope you've not felt unduly constrained.

Dont like to speculate when nothing has been proved, I'll leave that to you

rottenborough

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/mollynotm0lly/status/853597037484486656

Ken Livingston is on holiday today.

IanB2

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

foxinsoxuk

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/mollynotm0lly/status/853597037484486656

Known locally as Adolf...

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

The problem for the centre left is if a wounded Labour party hangs around like a bad fart in a lift, blocking any alternative.

Beverley_C

David_Evershed said:

Beverley_C said:

David_Evershed said:

Beverley_C said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

My local Lib Dems cannot even organise leaflet drops or candidates knocking on doors. To be fair, neither can the Greens or various independents. So that leaves me the increasingly swivel-eyed loons or back-to-70s-socialists to choose from.

Lib Dems, like all challenger parties, will be targetting certain areas where they can win (Winning Here) rather than wasting effort on lost causes. It is an outcome of the First Past the Post voting system.

Well then, I shall assist them in their desire not to win locally. Silly sods.

We'll put you down as a 'possible'.

Beverley_C

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

The problem for the centre left is if a wounded Labour party hangs around like a bad fart in a lift, blocking any alternative.

Alternatively, appeal directly to moderate Labour voters and say "We will represent you". Just baldly state with everyone knows to be obvious - Labour is dead but the corpse has not stopped twitching yet.

David_Evershed

Manchester Gorton by election.

The Guardian quotes a campaign briefing written by the Party’s Deputy Campaigns Director Dave McCobb:

McCobb says the Lib Dems are making up ground fast and are on 31%, with Labour on 51% – a level of support that is, he says, “running well ahead of where we were in the Witney byelection".

FrancisUrquhart

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

The problem for the centre left is if a wounded Labour party hangs around like a bad fart in a lift, blocking any alternative.

The name Richard burgon comes to mind for some reason...

Pulpstar

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

Sooner we get back to Tories v Whigs the better.

Sean_F

Beverley_C said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

The problem for the centre left is if a wounded Labour party hangs around like a bad fart in a lift, blocking any alternative.

Alternatively, appeal directly to moderate Labour voters and say "We will represent you". Just baldly state with everyone knows to be obvious - Labour is dead but the corpse has not stopped twitching yet.

There are places where dislodging Labour would be very hard; places that are very deprived, or very left wing, or with big BME populations which are not upwardly mobile.

paulbarker

On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

David_Evershed

paulbarker said:

On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

Is Brexit the new Iraq for the Lib Dems?

FrancisUrquhart

paulbarker said:

On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

I think it has been discussed here, most of those 3000 are just those that paid to vote in leadership and haven't paid the membership fees they owe.

David_Evershed

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

Sooner we get back to Tories v Whigs the better.

Bring back Disraeli versus Gladstone is what I say.

Sean_F

David_Evershed said:

paulbarker said:

On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

Is Brexit the new Iraq for the Lib Dems?

Most likely is that whether or not you think Brexit is a success will depend whether or not you voted for it.

Roger

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

I'm not sure about that. Now that the Tories have become the standard bearers for Brexit just being the ONLY party opposing it hook line and sinker might be enough. It certainly is for me.

BigRich

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

Sooner we get back to Tories v Whigs the better.

Totally agree with that!!

And as I have seid before so apologies for repetition:

The extent to which the labour parties strength and resilience is based on the funding it gets from the Trade unions is vastly underestimated IMO. With the Trade Union Act 2016 now in effect, we will almost certainly see Union members opting out of the political fund (or more precisely not opting in) this will not happen overnight, but by 2025 it will be a significant proportion. and makes the possibility of Lib Dems overtaking them much more likely!

Roger

paulbarker said:

On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

I'd be curious to know how the 3000 do it. I've emailed them more than once to try to resign my membership but nothing happens. Just an increased flow of emails from Citizen John McDonald to Comrade Roger.

FrancisUrquhart

Roger said:

paulbarker said:

On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

I'd be curious to know how the 3000 do it. I've emailed them more than once to try to resign my membership but nothing happens. Just an increased flow of emails from Citizen John McDonald to Comrade Roger.

Just stop paying and you will eventually get ejected (I believe 6 months in arrears will trigger it). That is what is behind most of these people leaving.

kle4

Roger said:

paulbarker said:

On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

I'd be curious to know how the 3000 do it. I've emailed them more than once to try to resign my membership but nothing happens. Just an increased flow of emails from Citizen John McDonald to Comrade Roger.

Please tell me they literally say 'Comrade Roger'.

BigRich

Roger said:

paulbarker said:

On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

I'd be curious to know how the 3000 do it. I've emailed them more than once to try to resign my membership but nothing happens. Just an increased flow of emails from Citizen John McDonald to Comrade Roger.

Depending on how many times you have tried, perhaps they are just counting you 3000 times?

rcs1000

Sean_F said:

My guess would be 20% or so, but significantly higher in SW London, posh bits of Inner London, and the M3 and M4 corridors. Being the party to reverse Brexit is a good way of building support between now and 2020, but will be of decreasing relevance thereafter.

I think that's right: it's another Iraq war tactical opportunity for the LibDems.

One caveat: if there were a serious UK recession (which is blamed on Brexit, irrespective of the ultimate causes), and Corbyn were still to be running Labour, then I think they might be able to do even better. Were Farron to be replaced by Clegg or Lamb, then I think - under the same circumstances - they might be able to approach 1983 levels of support.

But.

In all likelihood Corbyn will go before the 2020 election, and while I'm more pessimistic than most on the UK economy (for non-Brexit reasons) I don't expect a major recession. Put those together with the fact that Farron isn't going anywhere, and I think the most likely outcome for the LibDems is that they get 12-14 seats on 12-14% of the vote.

FrancisUrquhart

kle4 said:

Roger said:

paulbarker said:

On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

I'd be curious to know how the 3000 do it. I've emailed them more than once to try to resign my membership but nothing happens. Just an increased flow of emails from Citizen John McDonald to Comrade Roger.

Please tell me they literally say 'Comrade Roger'.

I hope they also use jezzas correct title of the supreme leader in any mail shots.

Roger

kle4 said:

Roger said:

paulbarker said:

On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

I'd be curious to know how the 3000 do it. I've emailed them more than once to try to resign my membership but nothing happens. Just an increased flow of emails from Citizen John McDonald to Comrade Roger.

Please tell me they literally say 'Comrade Roger'.

I think it's just 'Comrade' and he signs off 'Solidarity John Mcdonnell

Sean_F

BigRich said:

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

Sooner we get back to Tories v Whigs the better.

Totally agree with that!!

And as I have seid before so apologies for repetition:

The extent to which the labour parties strength and resilience is based on the funding it gets from the Trade unions is vastly underestimated IMO. With the Trade Union Act 2016 now in effect, we will almost certainly see Union members opting out of the political fund (or more precisely not opting in) this will not happen overnight, but by 2025 it will be a significant proportion. and makes the possibility of Lib Dems overtaking them much more likely!

Tory v Whigs could only be the divide when both parties had aristocratic leadership and the electorate was mainly middle class. As more of the working classes were enfranchised, so the Whigs became Tories. The Lib Dems would need to be firmly left wing to gain a critical mass of support from Labour.

rcs1000

SeanT said:

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

I'm not sure about that. Now that the Tories have become the standard bearers for Brexit just being the ONLY party opposing it hook line and sinker might be enough. It certainly is for me.

All well and good, and true for millions, but by 2019 we will have Brexited. i.e. before the next GE. So their policy has time-limited appeal.

In the hypothetical situation of a serious recession, and with unemployment up to (say) 3 million (and with the new job losses disproportionately in Remain areas), then I think they could do very well in 2020.

FrancisUrquhart

Roger said:

kle4 said:

Roger said:

paulbarker said:

On topic - how high can The Libdems go ?
What a lot of this misses is any grasp of just how badly Brexit could go wrong & just what is happening to Labour. Its not just Local contests, over the last year Labour Polling average has been on a steady slide, losing roughly 1% every 2 Months. The causes of the decline are well known but there is nothing anyone in Labour can do. Even the Nuclear option of a split is of the table because both Left & Right are divided over Brexit.
Labour members are leaving at around 3,000 every week, largely unnoticed by The Media. Of course with nearly half a Million members that slow leak can drag on a long time with no obvious effect but it is damaging whats left of Labour morale.
The Libdems cant yet challenge Labour for 2nd place In The Polls (on the ground is another matter) but wait a year or two & look again.

I'd be curious to know how the 3000 do it. I've emailed them more than once to try to resign my membership but nothing happens. Just an increased flow of emails from Citizen John McDonald to Comrade Roger.

Please tell me they literally say 'Comrade Roger'.

I think it's just 'Comrade' and he signs off 'Solidarity John Mcdonnell

Surprised it does sign off Tiocfaidh ár lá

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

I'm not sure about that. Now that the Tories have become the standard bearers for Brexit just being the ONLY party opposing it hook line and sinker might be enough. It certainly is for me.

All well and good, and true for millions, but by 2019 we will have Brexited. i.e. before the next GE. So their policy has time-limited appeal.

In the hypothetical situation of a serious recession, and with unemployment up to (say) 3 million (and with the new job losses disproportionately in Remain areas), then I think they could do very well in 2020.

What do you think with be the cause of this recession? Slow down in China? Continuing too much bad credit in America?

I have seen a number of videos from westerners living in China saying the housing bubble is insane and requiring constant intervention by the state to stop it going pop. Insane price increases + piss poor quality building / maintenance + massive oversupply & all the Chinese rich to poor have sunk crazy amounts of money into this flawed and false market.

BigRich

Sean_F said:

BigRich said:

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

Sooner we get back to Tories v Whigs the better.

Totally agree with that!!

And as I have seid before so apologies for repetition:

The extent to which the labour parties strength and resilience is based on the funding it gets from the Trade unions is vastly underestimated IMO. With the Trade Union Act 2016 now in effect, we will almost certainly see Union members opting out of the political fund (or more precisely not opting in) this will not happen overnight, but by 2025 it will be a significant proportion. and makes the possibility of Lib Dems overtaking them much more likely!

Tory v Whigs could only be the divide when both parties had aristocratic leadership and the electorate was mainly middle class. As more of the working classes were enfranchised, so the Whigs became Tories. The Lib Dems would need to be firmly left wing to gain a critical mass of support from Labour.

You might be right, I don't know but, looking at Canada, we see a stable system, with one big liberal party, and one big Conservative party, who oscillate in government, and a small socialist party the NDP who are backed by the unions, and of course a separatist party who dominate in their area. could the same happen here? I think it could.

The Canadian Liberals as a bit more left and less libertarian than I would consider ideal, but not by that much.

BigRich

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

I'm not sure about that. Now that the Tories have become the standard bearers for Brexit just being the ONLY party opposing it hook line and sinker might be enough. It certainly is for me.

All well and good, and true for millions, but by 2019 we will have Brexited. i.e. before the next GE. So their policy has time-limited appeal.

In the hypothetical situation of a serious recession, and with unemployment up to (say) 3 million (and with the new job losses disproportionately in Remain areas), then I think they could do very well in 2020.

What do you think with be the cause of this recession? Slow down in China? Continuing too much bad credit in America?

Property price bubble.

GeoffM

Yay ... another LibDem World Domination thread!

[turns on the Formula1]

Beverley_C

Sean_F said:

Beverley_C said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

The problem for the centre left is if a wounded Labour party hangs around like a bad fart in a lift, blocking any alternative.

Alternatively, appeal directly to moderate Labour voters and say "We will represent you". Just baldly state with everyone knows to be obvious - Labour is dead but the corpse has not stopped twitching yet.

There are places where dislodging Labour would be very hard; places that are very deprived, or very left wing, or with big BME populations which are not upwardly mobile.

You cannot win them all in one go. It does not have to be all-or-nothing, but you do need to make a visible start somewhere.

rcs1000

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

In the hypothetical situation of a serious recession, and with unemployment up to (say) 3 million (and with the new job losses disproportionately in Remain areas), then I think they could do very well in 2020.

What do you think with be the cause of this recession? Slow down in China? Continuing too much bad credit in America?

The biggest imbalance in the UK economy is its depressed savings rate.


It is of particular concern given our low birth rate, as it implies that far too many people have not saved for their retirement. (Or, perhaps, that they're planning on making big withdrawals from the Bank of Bricks and Morter.)

If the UK savings rate were to normalise, it would undoubtedly trigger a recession (as it would imply that consumption fell by 4-5%). If it were to move to the same level it did following the 1990-92 recession (15%), then it would likely involve a 2008-9 level of increase in unemployment.

Sean_F

BigRich said:

Sean_F said:

BigRich said:

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

Sooner we get back to Tories v Whigs the better.

Totally agree with that!!

And as I have seid before so apologies for repetition:

The extent to which the labour parties strength and resilience is based on the funding it gets from the Trade unions is vastly underestimated IMO. With the Trade Union Act 2016 now in effect, we will almost certainly see Union members opting out of the political fund (or more precisely not opting in) this will not happen overnight, but by 2025 it will be a significant proportion. and makes the possibility of Lib Dems overtaking them much more likely!

Tory v Whigs could only be the divide when both parties had aristocratic leadership and the electorate was mainly middle class. As more of the working classes were enfranchised, so the Whigs became Tories. The Lib Dems would need to be firmly left wing to gain a critical mass of support from Labour.

You might be right, I don't know but, looking at Canada, we see a stable system, with one big liberal party, and one big Conservative party, who oscillate in government, and a small socialist party the NDP who are backed by the unions, and of course a separatist party who dominate in their area. could the same happen here? I think it could.

The Canadian Liberals as a bit more left and less libertarian than I would consider ideal, but not by that much.

I think the Canadian Liberals are in reality a social democratic party, similar to mainstream Labour, or the German SPD.

BigRich

Sean_F said:

BigRich said:

Sean_F said:

BigRich said:

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

Sooner we get back to Tories v Whigs the better.

Totally agree with that!!

And as I have seid before so apologies for repetition:

The extent to which the labour parties strength and resilience is based on the funding it gets from the Trade unions is vastly underestimated IMO. With the Trade Union Act 2016 now in effect, we will almost certainly see Union members opting out of the political fund (or more precisely not opting in) this will not happen overnight, but by 2025 it will be a significant proportion. and makes the possibility of Lib Dems overtaking them much more likely!

Tory v Whigs could only be the divide when both parties had aristocratic leadership and the electorate was mainly middle class. As more of the working classes were enfranchised, so the Whigs became Tories. The Lib Dems would need to be firmly left wing to gain a critical mass of support from Labour.

You might be right, I don't know but, looking at Canada, we see a stable system, with one big liberal party, and one big Conservative party, who oscillate in government, and a small socialist party the NDP who are backed by the unions, and of course a separatist party who dominate in their area. could the same happen here? I think it could.

The Canadian Liberals as a bit more left and less libertarian than I would consider ideal, but not by that much.

I think the Canadian Liberals are in reality a social democratic party, similar to mainstream Labour, or the German SPD.

I wont clame to be an expert, but 1) the Canadian liberals are not supported by the union, and 2) they have just legalised Pot.

So that's 2 thing they have going for them that mainstream left parties don't.

IanB2

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

I'm not sure about that. Now that the Tories have become the standard bearers for Brexit just being the ONLY party opposing it hook line and sinker might be enough. It certainly is for me.

All well and good, and true for millions, but by 2019 we will have Brexited. i.e. before the next GE. So their policy has time-limited appeal.

In the hypothetical situation of a serious recession, and with unemployment up to (say) 3 million (and with the new job losses disproportionately in Remain areas), then I think they could do very well in 2020.

What do you think with be the cause of this recession? Slow down in China? Continuing too much bad credit in America?

I have seen a number of videos from westerners living in China saying the housing bubble is insane and requiring constant intervention by the state to stop it going pop. Insane price increases + piss poor quality building / maintenance + massive oversupply & all the Chinese rich to poor have sunk crazy amounts of money into this flawed and false market.

''Tis the lead story in this week's Moneyweek magazine. Panic now - the UK property crash is imminent.

rcs1000

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

I'm not sure about that. Now that the Tories have become the standard bearers for Brexit just being the ONLY party opposing it hook line and sinker might be enough. It certainly is for me.

All well and good, and true for millions, but by 2019 we will have Brexited. i.e. before the next GE. So their policy has time-limited appeal.

In the hypothetical situation of a serious recession, and with unemployment up to (say) 3 million (and with the new job losses disproportionately in Remain areas), then I think they could do very well in 2020.

What do you think with be the cause of this recession? Slow down in China? Continuing too much bad credit in America?

I have seen a number of videos from westerners living in China saying the housing bubble is insane and requiring constant intervention by the state to stop it going pop. Insane price increases + piss poor quality building / maintenance + massive oversupply & all the Chinese rich to poor have sunk crazy amounts of money into this flawed and false market.

This is a terrific article about resource misallocation in China: http://www.thebohemianblog.com/2014/02/welcome-to-ordos-world-largest-ghost-city-china.html

I find it staggering that the Chinese banking system now has more debt (aka "assets") than the US one. That's in US dollar terms, and I would suggest that China is likely to have a nasty "bump" as it readjusts its economic model away from gross capital formation and towards consumption.

(This is not to say that China won't become the undisputed largest economy in the world in the next ten years, just that it's not likely to happen without at least one pratfall along the way. The extraordinary level of debt formation practically guarantees it.)

Theuniondivvie

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/mollynotm0lly/status/853597037484486656

Phew, does that mean it's ok to mention it now?

There seemed to be copious mentioning which ceased when the 'them Muslamics' line of enquiry fizzled out.

I do hope you've not felt unduly constrained.

Dont like to speculate when nothing has been proved, I'll leave that to you

Hey, it's Sky who are speculating, I'm just reposting a reasonably funny riff on those goons who immediately after these type of events loudly demand that every Muslim must condemn or be deported.

Luckily we never get those sorts on PB.

IanB2

SeanT said:

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

I'm not sure about that. Now that the Tories have become the standard bearers for Brexit just being the ONLY party opposing it hook line and sinker might be enough. It certainly is for me.

All well and good, and true for millions, but by 2019 we will have Brexited. i.e. before the next GE. So their policy has time-limited appeal.

But Brexit is mostly a symptom, remember?

The question is whether a new fault line in politics, between liberal/internationalist and conservative/nationalist, is emerging - the reverse of the process that allowed Labour to exploit the emerging class divide in politics early in the last century, leaving the Liberals stranded on the fence. It took less than a couple of decades and a split to play out. Then it was done for more or less a century.

williamglenn

Was there even a market on this?

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/853623719742365698

IanB2

David_Evershed said:

Manchester Gorton by election.

The Guardian quotes a campaign briefing written by the Party’s Deputy Campaigns Director Dave McCobb:

McCobb says the Lib Dems are making up ground fast and are on 31%, with Labour on 51% – a level of support that is, he says, “running well ahead of where we were in the Witney byelection".

Once established as the clear challenger, it's just a question of everyone who is fed up with Labour seeing the sensible thing to do....

IanB2

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

David_Evershed said:

rkrkrk said:

If the Lib Dem position is we will stop Brexit... Or reverse it... Then that could cause big problems for the Labour party at the next election.

They will have to deny that they would accept that in a coalition with Lib Dems.
Or reverse their position.

Labour aren't going to be in a coalition with anybody after the next election. More likely would be a second coalition of the Conservative left wing and Lib Dems.

The LDs will never coalition with the conservatives this generation, no matter the circumstances. Like the reason Labour won't split because of the trouble that happened last time, the wounds are still too raw.

Slow death for Labour will do just fine.

The problem for the centre left is if a wounded Labour party hangs around like a bad fart in a lift, blocking any alternative.

Only from a partisan perspective. For the country, it depends on how the Tories govern meantime.

And, in a democracy, the ruling party almost always gets turfed out, sooner or later.

isam

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/mollynotm0lly/status/853597037484486656

Phew, does that mean it's ok to mention it now?

There seemed to be copious mentioning which ceased when the 'them Muslamics' line of enquiry fizzled out.

I do hope you've not felt unduly constrained.

Dont like to speculate when nothing has been proved, I'll leave that to you

Hey, it's Sky who are speculating, I'm just reposting a reasonably funny riff on those goons who immediately after these type of events loudly demand that every Muslim must condemn or be deported.

Luckily we never get those sorts on PB.

Oh no, posting speculation on others behalf isn't the same at all!

It's like @Platosaid and her links! Someone had to fill the void, well done

Carolus_Rex

williamglenn said:

Was there even a market on this?

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/853623719742365698

Yes, on Betfair. YES currently 1.05, NO out to 11.

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

I'm not sure about that. Now that the Tories have become the standard bearers for Brexit just being the ONLY party opposing it hook line and sinker might be enough. It certainly is for me.

All well and good, and true for millions, but by 2019 we will have Brexited. i.e. before the next GE. So their policy has time-limited appeal.

But Brexit is mostly a symptom, remember?

The question is whether a new fault line in politics, between liberal/internationalist and conservative/nationalist, is emerging - the reverse of the process that allowed Labour to exploit the emerging class divide in politics early in the last century, leaving the Liberals stranded on the fence. It took less than a couple of decades and a split to play out. Then it was done for more or less a century.

To an extent, yes. Although I still find it hard to envisage millionaire Conservatives in Guildford aligning themselves with Sinn Fein supporters in West Belfast.

Theuniondivvie

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/mollynotm0lly/status/853597037484486656

Phew, does that mean it's ok to mention it now?

There seemed to be copious mentioning which ceased when the 'them Muslamics' line of enquiry fizzled out.

I do hope you've not felt unduly constrained.

Dont like to speculate when nothing has been proved, I'll leave that to you

Hey, it's Sky who are speculating, I'm just reposting a reasonably funny riff on those goons who immediately after these type of events loudly demand that every Muslim must condemn or be deported.

Luckily we never get those sorts on PB.

Oh no, posting speculation on others behalf isn't the same at all!

It's like @Platosaid and her links! Someone had to fill the void, well done

With all your exclamation marks & emojis, you do sometimes give the impression of being a breathless teenager.
Well done for being the void!!!

isam

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/mollynotm0lly/status/853597037484486656

Phew, does that mean it's ok to mention it now?

There seemed to be copious mentioning which ceased when the 'them Muslamics' line of enquiry fizzled out.

I do hope you've not felt unduly constrained.

Dont like to speculate when nothing has been proved, I'll leave that to you

Hey, it's Sky who are speculating, I'm just reposting a reasonably funny riff on those goons who immediately after these type of events loudly demand that every Muslim must condemn or be deported.

Luckily we never get those sorts on PB.

Oh no, posting speculation on others behalf isn't the same at all!

It's like @Platosaid and her links! Someone had to fill the void, well done

With all your exclamation marks & emojis, you do sometimes give the impression of being a breathless teenager.
Well done for being the void!!!

I am 6ft though... is that tall enough?

"exclamation" btw.. don't be in such a rush

HYUFD

Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

williamglenn

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

I'm not sure about that. Now that the Tories have become the standard bearers for Brexit just being the ONLY party opposing it hook line and sinker might be enough. It certainly is for me.

All well and good, and true for millions, but by 2019 we will have Brexited. i.e. before the next GE. So their policy has time-limited appeal.

But Brexit is mostly a symptom, remember?

The question is whether a new fault line in politics, between liberal/internationalist and conservative/nationalist, is emerging - the reverse of the process that allowed Labour to exploit the emerging class divide in politics early in the last century, leaving the Liberals stranded on the fence. It took less than a couple of decades and a split to play out. Then it was done for more or less a century.

To an extent, yes. Although I still find it hard to envisage millionaire Conservatives in Guildford aligning themselves with Sinn Fein supporters in West Belfast.

Is it any harder than imagining millionaire Conservatives in the home counties feeling common cause with Arlene Foster?

Sean_F

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

To succeed the LDs need to look like a viable alternative to the incumbent . Sometimes they manage that locally. But there is no sign of that nationally. The coalition legacy does not help.

I'm not sure about that. Now that the Tories have become the standard bearers for Brexit just being the ONLY party opposing it hook line and sinker might be enough. It certainly is for me.

All well and good, and true for millions, but by 2019 we will have Brexited. i.e. before the next GE. So their policy has time-limited appeal.

But Brexit is mostly a symptom, remember?

The question is whether a new fault line in politics, between liberal/internationalist and conservative/nationalist, is emerging - the reverse of the process that allowed Labour to exploit the emerging class divide in politics early in the last century, leaving the Liberals stranded on the fence. It took less than a couple of decades and a split to play out. Then it was done for more or less a century.

To an extent, yes. Although I still find it hard to envisage millionaire Conservatives in Guildford aligning themselves with Sinn Fein supporters in West Belfast.

Is it any harder than imagining millionaire Conservatives in the home counties feeling common cause with Arlene Foster?

Probably not. Although lower middle class and working class Conservatives and UKIP voters would have much more in common with her.

Sean_F

HYUFD said:

Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.

brokenwheel

SeanT said:

Erdogan could lose his vote.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/853628200194383875

Let's hope so.

If it does end up 52-48 will Remainers demand a second referendum?

Sean_F

SeanT said:

Erdogan could lose his vote.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/853628200194383875

Let's hope so.

Why isn't Erdogan winning 95-99%?

brokenwheel

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Erdogan could lose his vote.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/853628200194383875

Let's hope so.

Why isn't Erdogan winning 95-99%?

Not massacred enough Kurds yet.

rottenborough

SeanT said:

brokenwheel said:

SeanT said:

Erdogan could lose his vote.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/853628200194383875

Let's hope so.

If it does end up 52-48 will Remainers demand a second referendum?

It looks like it will be very close, though Erdogan might just edge it. He's not as popular as he thinks. Gotta feel sorry for secular Turks and Kurds.

Yet another reason why Turkey wont be joining the EU.

brokenwheel

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

brokenwheel said:

SeanT said:

Erdogan could lose his vote.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/853628200194383875

Let's hope so.

If it does end up 52-48 will Remainers demand a second referendum?

It looks like it will be very close, though Erdogan might just edge it. He's not as popular as he thinks. Gotta feel sorry for secular Turks and Kurds.

Yet another reason why Turkey wont be joining the EU.

Against the desire of our government...

GeoffM

brokenwheel said:

If it does end up 52-48 will Remainers demand a second referendum?

Yes, but well known Turkish tweeter, blog commenter and railway enthusiast Sahil Polatkan will be around to remind TurkishPoliticalBetting.com every day that 52:48 was a winning margin.

Possibly he will add a halo-smiley.

logical_song

IanB2 said:

David_Evershed said:

Manchester Gorton by election.

The Guardian quotes a campaign briefing written by the Party’s Deputy Campaigns Director Dave McCobb:

McCobb says the Lib Dems are making up ground fast and are on 31%, with Labour on 51% – a level of support that is, he says, “running well ahead of where we were in the Witney byelection".

Once established as the clear challenger, it's just a question of everyone who is fed up with Labour seeing the sensible thing to do....

... and Labour supporters seeing the sensible thing to do - vote LibDem and get your Labour Party back.
(Surely Corbyn would go if Gorton goes and Local results are bad?)

rcs1000

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.

There's a very interesting split in the FN between Marine Le Pen, on the one hand, and Marion Maréchal-Le Pen on the other. MLP is very much an economic populist, and sees big business as the biggest threat to France. MML is a traditional Catholic nationalist, who is much more business friendly and dreams of reinventing the EU as the European Christian Union.

rottenborough

logical_song said:

IanB2 said:

David_Evershed said:

Manchester Gorton by election.

The Guardian quotes a campaign briefing written by the Party’s Deputy Campaigns Director Dave McCobb:

McCobb says the Lib Dems are making up ground fast and are on 31%, with Labour on 51% – a level of support that is, he says, “running well ahead of where we were in the Witney byelection".

Once established as the clear challenger, it's just a question of everyone who is fed up with Labour seeing the sensible thing to do....

... and Labour supporters seeing the sensible thing to do - vote LibDem and get your Labour Party back.
(Surely Corbyn would go if Gorton goes and Local results are bad?)

I doubt it. I am hoping the good people of Manchester will stuff Labour and win me a few quid on LDs, but even that wont shift the limpet of Islington.

HYUFD

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.

Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer

logical_song

Europe Elects‏
@EuropeElects

Turkey: After 80% of the votes counted:

Result projection:

Yes: 49.6-51.8%
No: 50.4-48.2%

GeoffM

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.

Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer

Some of the people he thinks are closest to him will be lying to his face about how they voted.

You'd need a heart of stone etc etc

Scrapheap_as_was

We all love Man U.....

GeoffM

Scrapheap_as_was said:

We all love Man U.....

As that the result of an Angus Reid poll?

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

We all love Man U.....

Don't miss the evening thread that goes up around 8pm.

You and your fellow Spurs fans will love it.

RoyalBlue

SeanT said:

it really is going to be 52/48

https://twitter.com/aa_balkans/status/853640384307752961

I don't see how No can win.

Turkish Republic, 1923-2017. RIP.

old_labour

Aykan Erdemir (@aykan_erdemir)

#TurkeyReferendum: Following the dramatic fall in YES votes, #SupremeElectionCouncil stops sharing ballot data with the main opposition #CHP
April 16, 2017

RobD

old_labour said:

Aykan Erdemir (@aykan_erdemir)

#TurkeyReferendum: Following the dramatic fall in YES votes, #SupremeElectionCouncil stops sharing ballot data with the main opposition #CHP
April 16, 2017

Pedant mode, but I'm sure the Yes figure never actually went down.

malcolmg

HYUFD said:

The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

You forgot the SNP exist

HYUFD

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

You forgot the SNP exist

No I didn't, the SNP now back staying in the EEA effectively rather than the EU like Labour, partly as a third of SNP voters voted Leave

logical_song

Europe Elects‏
@EuropeElects

Numbers presented here are based on the results published by the Turkish authorities. We cannot confirm if rigged or not. #TurkeyReferendum

That's a bit worrying.

RoyalBlue

SeanT said:

RoyalBlue said:

SeanT said:

it really is going to be 52/48

https://twitter.com/aa_balkans/status/853640384307752961

I don't see how No can win.

Turkish Republic, 1923-2017. RIP.

Yes. Kemal Ataturk's Turkey was, for all its flaws, a good thing. Secular, pro-Western, democratic.

Now this. Sad.

Democratic? To some extent. The secular elite are now paying the price for stamping on the culture and traditions of Anatolia. The heartland would tolerate it from Ataturk, but not the self-seeking elites who followed.

HYUFD

GeoffM said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.

Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer

Some of the people he thinks are closest to him will be lying to his face about how they voted.

You'd need a heart of stone etc etc

His French neighbours are even worse than his old British ones!

Sean_F

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.

Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer

Perhaps privately, Roger shares their opinions, and he posts here as a left wing alter ego.

logical_song

Turkish referendum figures vary a lot by country.
UK, Italy, Greece, Spain, Bulgaria, Hungary, Sweden all very much 'No'.
Austria, Netherlands and Germany very much 'Yes'

logical_song

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Where France's Front National is on the rise https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/853626684767121408

Many of Roger's friends and neighbours must be voting FN.

Looks like he won't be inviting the neighbours around for dinner then this summer

Perhaps privately, Roger shares their opinions, and he posts here as a left wing alter ego.

Now, what made you think of that?
Could it be.....?

RobD

logical_song said:

Europe Elects‏
@EuropeElects

Numbers presented here are based on the results published by the Turkish authorities. We cannot confirm if rigged or not. #TurkeyReferendum

That's a bit worrying.

Has there been suggestions of that? Otherwise a bit cheeky of them to raise the spectre of vote rigging.

RobD

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

The LDs are now the only party committed to staying in the EU rather than just the single market so as they have that market all to themselves though as the article suggests they are unlikely to get more than 25% on that platform

You forgot the SNP exist

I thought they now wanted EFTA?