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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day, another 21% poll lead for the Tories, this time w

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day, another 21% poll lead for the Tories, this time with YouGov

New @YouGov @thetimes poll

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    First....just Corbyn's Labour Party*

    * According to my twitter feed, not those fake news polls from biased zionist run media organizations.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Surely Corbyn only stays after the 2020 general election if Labour does well at that election? /nitpick
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    You lied to us about a new thread! MSM all over.
    AndyJS said:

    Labour members were warned that if they elected Corbyn as leader they would eventually be down to 20% in the polls. They didn't listen.

    They still believe in him (or in the brand, in spite of him). 25% didn't phase them, 23% won't, nor will 20%. Copeland barely phased them. No MPs will jump ship to another party, I guarantee it. It's doubtful if any will even go Indy. If the polls and previous results and the leadership group of the party cannot cause the members to wake up, what will? Will Gorton (which will be easily won) be enough? Greater Manchester? Even Liverpool?

    I don't know how someone who does not support Corbyn but loves the Labour brand is able to still campaign for them right now. I know the MPs moved too soon last summer, but someone needs to take action, this is serious, you cannot just whine about him on twitter.

    It's not about giving up either. Maybe a direct fight now would be lost, but you keep at it, dare them to force you out as you fight for the soul of the party. If it is worth fighting for, then fight for it they must. Maybe the locals won't be as bad as predicted (it would be hard to be worse, so even slightly better will seen fantastic), maybe local mayoral candidates will do well, but even if that is true the situation is bloody awful for them, and they cannot rely on May cocking up. She might. There are plenty of things that could lead to that. But at present they are reliant on that, its reactive.

    Just an outsider's view. I don't believe this big swings, there's no reason for them to have occurred now, and I don't believe the lead would be as big as this in a GE. But it would be a big lead

    Good night
  • Surely Corbyn only stays after the 2020 general election if Labour does well at that election? /nitpick

    Yeah, fixed that.

    Ta
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    I wouldn't be surprised if, in ten years' time, Turkey is an islamo-fascist hell-hole with an Iraqi-style civil war and mass flight of the westernised urban youth to Europe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    JohnLoony said:

    I wouldn't be surprised if, in ten years' time, Turkey is an islamo-fascist hell-hole with an Iraqi-style civil war and mass flight of the urban youth to Europe.

    A cheery thought to go to bed on. Sadly, it doesn't feel like it can be discounted as a possibility.
  • kle4 said:

    You lied to us about a new thread! MSM all over.

    AndyJS said:

    Labour members were warned that if they elected Corbyn as leader they would eventually be down to 20% in the polls. They didn't listen.

    They still believe in him (or in the brand, in spite of him). 25% didn't phase them, 23% won't, nor will 20%. Copeland barely phased them. No MPs will jump ship to another party, I guarantee it. It's doubtful if any will even go Indy. If the polls and previous results and the leadership group of the party cannot cause the members to wake up, what will? Will Gorton (which will be easily won) be enough? Greater Manchester? Even Liverpool?

    I don't know how someone who does not support Corbyn but loves the Labour brand is able to still campaign for them right now. I know the MPs moved too soon last summer, but someone needs to take action, this is serious, you cannot just whine about him on twitter.

    It's not about giving up either. Maybe a direct fight now would be lost, but you keep at it, dare them to force you out as you fight for the soul of the party. If it is worth fighting for, then fight for it they must. Maybe the locals won't be as bad as predicted (it would be hard to be worse, so even slightly better will seen fantastic), maybe local mayoral candidates will do well, but even if that is true the situation is bloody awful for them, and they cannot rely on May cocking up. She might. There are plenty of things that could lead to that. But at present they are reliant on that, its reactive.

    Just an outsider's view. I don't believe this big swings, there's no reason for them to have occurred now, and I don't believe the lead would be as big as this in a GE. But it would be a big lead

    Good night
    I reckon the 2018 locals might do it.

    In 2018, Labour be defending 2,121 councillors, this year they are only defending 538 councillors.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kle4 said:

    You lied to us about a new thread! MSM all over.

    AndyJS said:

    Labour members were warned that if they elected Corbyn as leader they would eventually be down to 20% in the polls. They didn't listen.

    They still believe in him (or in the brand, in spite of him). 25% didn't phase them, 23% won't, nor will 20%. Copeland barely phased them. No MPs will jump ship to another party, I guarantee it. It's doubtful if any will even go Indy. If the polls and previous results and the leadership group of the party cannot cause the members to wake up, what will? Will Gorton (which will be easily won) be enough? Greater Manchester? Even Liverpool?

    I don't know how someone who does not support Corbyn but loves the Labour brand is able to still campaign for them right now. I know the MPs moved too soon last summer, but someone needs to take action, this is serious, you cannot just whine about him on twitter.

    It's not about giving up either. Maybe a direct fight now would be lost, but you keep at it, dare them to force you out as you fight for the soul of the party. If it is worth fighting for, then fight for it they must. Maybe the locals won't be as bad as predicted (it would be hard to be worse, so even slightly better will seen fantastic), maybe local mayoral candidates will do well, but even if that is true the situation is bloody awful for them, and they cannot rely on May cocking up. She might. There are plenty of things that could lead to that. But at present they are reliant on that, its reactive.

    Just an outsider's view. I don't believe this big swings, there's no reason for them to have occurred now, and I don't believe the lead would be as big as this in a GE. But it would be a big lead

    Good night
    I really don't see how you are in a position to know that '25% didn't phase them' or that 'Copeland barely phased them'. The membership has had no opportunity to express its judgement on either! I strongly suspect that the conditions are now in place to defeat Corbyn via a further challenge this year.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    edited April 2017
    OK. This is what I wrote when TSE said there wouldn't be a new thread. (Grr).

    Labour hits its lowest poll rating in opposition since 1915*

    YouGov records just 23% for Labour, and a 21% Con lead

    * probably

    Today’s YouGov marks another low for Corbyn’s Labour party, just two-and-a-half weeks before the key local and mayoral elections.

    The survey for The Times records vote shares of

    Con 44 (+2)
    Lab 23 (-2)
    LD 12 (+1)
    UKIP 10 (-1)

    The 21-point lead ties the poll released by ComRes last week, is the joint-highest for the Conservatives in government since 1988.

    Unlike the ComRes poll, however, which had shares of Con 46 / Lab 25, YouGov have Labour on just 23: a vote share that they’ve not recorded when out of government since a single ASL poll just before the 1983 general election (in which they then actually received more than 28%). Indeed, in the history of British political polling – going back to 1943 – Labour has never received a lower Westminster share when on the opposition benches (their all-time low was an 18% share recorded under Gordon Brown in May 2009).

    In all probability, it’s the lowest rating in opposition in even longer. Although we don’t have polls before 1940, we do have a healthy set of by-elections, which give a good indication of public mood.

    In all the inter-war general elections, Labour polled 30% or better (to the nearest point). Furthermore, they made consistent gains in by-elections during the lengthy periods of Tory rule between 1922 and 1939. Given that there were Labour ministers throughout the Asquith/Lloyd George coalitions, that implies that the 23% in today’s YouGov is Labour’s worst share since at least 1915, when there was a far from universal franchise.

    The one possible exception to this might have been following the Labour split in 1931, when the official party might have been reeling from the defection of its leader and prime minister. Unfortunately, there were no useful by-elections at the time so we don’t have any data to work off. Even so, despite the catastrophic loss of seats in the general election later that year, when they were reduced to just 52 MPs, they still received over 30% of ballots cast.

    Put simply, Labour is in all probability at its lowest level of support in opposition for over 100 years. The omens for what this means in 2020 if the party does nothing are obvious – and will be even more obvious come May 5. But will they act and if so, will they make the right call?
  • OK. This is what I wrote when TSE said there wouldn't be a new thread. (Grr).

    Labour hits its lowest poll rating in opposition since 1915*

    YouGov records just 23% for Labour, and a 21% Con lead

    * probably

    Today’s YouGov marks another low for Corbyn’s Labour party, just two-and-a-half weeks before the key local and mayoral elections.

    The survey for The Times records vote shares of

    Con 44 (+2)
    Lab 23 (-2)
    LD 12 (+1)
    UKIP 10 (-1)

    The 21-point lead ties the poll released by ComRes last week, is the joint-highest for the Conservatives in government since 1988.

    Unlike the ComRes poll, however, which had shares of Con 46 / Lab 25, YouGov have Labour on just 23: a vote share that they’ve not recorded since a single ASL poll just before the 1983 general election (in which they then actually received more than 28%). Indeed, in the history of British political polling – going back to 1943 – Labour has never received a lower Westminster share when on the opposition benches (their all-time low was an 18% share recorded under Gordon Brown in May 2009).

    In all probability, it’s the lowest rating in opposition in even longer. Although we don’t have polls before 1940, we do have a healthy set of by-elections, which give a good indication of public mood.

    In all the inter-war general elections, Labour polled 30% or better (to the nearest point). Furthermore, they made consistent gains in by-elections during the lengthy periods of Tory rule between 1922 and 1939. Given that there were Labour ministers throughout the Asquith/Lloyd George coalitions, that implies that the 23% in today’s YouGov is Labour’s worst share since at least 1915, when there was a far from universal franchise.

    The one possible exception to this might have been following the Labour split in 1931, when the official party might have been reeling from the defection of its leader and prime minister. Unfortunately, there were no useful by-elections at the time so we don’t have any data to work off. Even so, despite the catastrophic loss of seats in the general election later that year, when they were reduced to just 52 MPs, they still received over 30% of ballots cast.

    Put simply, Labour is in all probability at its lowest level of support in opposition for over 100 years. The omens for what this means in 2020 if the party does nothing are obvious – and will be even more obvious come May 5. But will they act and if so, will they make the right call?

    Sorry.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    JEREMY Corbyn has reported an MP for harassment who questioned Labour’s woeful media performance.

    The Labour leader’s office reported Neil Coyle to the party’s Chief Whip for disciplinary action after he sent Mr Corbyn a formal email questioning his leadership.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3344804/jeremy-corbyn-reports-one-of-his-own-mps-for-harassment-after-his-leadership-is-questioned/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    You lied to us about a new thread! MSM all over.

    AndyJS said:

    Labour members were warned that if they elected Corbyn as leader they would eventually be down to 20% in the polls. They didn't listen.

    They still believe in him (or in the brand, in spite of him). 25% didn't phase them, 23% won't, nor will 20%. Copeland barely phased them. No MPs will jump ship to another party, I guarantee it. It's doubtful if any will even go Indy. If the polls and previous results and the leadership group of the party cannot cause the members to wake up, what will? Will Gorton (which will be easily won) be enough? Greater Manchester? Even Liverpool?

    I don't know how someone who does not support Corbyn but loves the Labour brand is able to still campaign for them right now. I know the MPs moved too soon last summer, but someone needs to take action, this is serious, you cannot just whine about him on twitter.

    It's not about giving up either. Maybe a direct fight now would be lost, but you keep at it, dare them to force you out as you fight for the soul of the party. If it is worth fighting for, then fight for it they must. Maybe the locals won't be as bad as predicted (it would be hard to be worse, so even slightly better will seen fantastic), maybe local mayoral candidates will do well, but even if that is true the situation is bloody awful for them, and they cannot rely on May cocking up. She might. There are plenty of things that could lead to that. But at present they are reliant on that, its reactive.

    Just an outsider's view. I don't believe this big swings, there's no reason for them to have occurred now, and I don't believe the lead would be as big as this in a GE. But it would be a big lead

    Good night
    I really don't see how you are in a position to know that '25% didn't phase them' or that 'Copeland barely phased them'. The membership has had no opportunity to express its judgement on either! I strongly suspect that the conditions are now in place to defeat Corbyn via a further challenge this year.
    We can all hope you're right. And yes it was conjecture. I don't know a great many active party members, and most of those are lds, but of the labour ones, those who hated corbyn still do and those who backed him still do. Perhaps they are atypical, the true believers, but I see little churn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    You lied to us about a new thread! MSM all over.

    AndyJS said:

    Labour members were warned that if they elected Corbyn as leader they would eventually be down to 20% in the polls. They didn't listen.

    They still believe in him (or in the brand, in spite of him). 25% didn't phase them, 23% won't, nor will 20%. Copeland barely phased them. No MPs will jump ship to another party, I guarantee it. It's doubtful if any will even go Indy. If the polls and previous results and the leadership group of the party cannot cause the members to wake up, what will? Will Gorton (which will be easily won) be enough? Greater Manchester? Even Liverpool?

    I don't know how someone who does not support Corbyn but loves the Labour brand is able to still campaign for them right now. I know the MPs moved too soon last summer, but someone needs to take action, this is serious, you cannot just whine about him on twitter.

    It's not about giving up either. Maybe a direct fight now would be lost, but you keep at it, dare them to force you out as you fight for the soul of the party. If it is worth fighting for, then fight for it they must. Maybe the locals won't be as bad as predicted (it would be hard to be worse, so even slightly better will seen fantastic), maybe local mayoral candidates will do well, but even if that is true the situation is bloody awful for them, and they cannot rely on May cocking up. She might. There are plenty of things that could lead to that. But at present they are reliant on that, its reactive.

    Just an outsider's view. I don't believe this big swings, there's no reason for them to have occurred now, and I don't believe the lead would be as big as this in a GE. But it would be a big lead

    Good night
    I reckon the 2018 locals might do it.

    In 2018, Labour be defending 2,121 councillors, this year they are only defending 538 councillors.
    That low number thus year is something of a godsend for him, optics wise.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    You lied to us about a new thread! MSM all over.

    AndyJS said:

    Labour members were warned that if they elected Corbyn as leader they would eventually be down to 20% in the polls. They didn't listen.

    They still believe in him (or in the brand, in spite of him). 25% didn't phase them, 23% won't, nor will 20%. Copeland barely phased them. No MPs will jump ship to another party, I guarantee it. It's doubtful if any will even go Indy. If the polls and previous results and the leadership group of the party cannot cause the members to wake up, what will? Will Gorton (which will be easily won) be enough? Greater Manchester? Even Liverpool?

    I don't know how someone who does not support Corbyn but loves the Labour brand is able to still campaign for them right now. I know the MPs moved too soon last summer, but someone needs to take action, this is serious, you cannot just whine about him on twitter.

    It's not about giving up either. Maybe a direct fight now would be lost, but you keep at it, dare them to force you out as you fight for the soul of the party. If it is worth fighting for, then fight for it they must. Maybe the locals won't be as bad as predicted (it would be hard to be worse, so even slightly better will seen fantastic), maybe local mayoral candidates will do well, but even if that is true the situation is bloody awful for them, and they cannot rely on May cocking up. She might. There are plenty of things that could lead to that. But at present they are reliant on that, its reactive.

    Just an outsider's view. I don't believe this big swings, there's no reason for them to have occurred now, and I don't believe the lead would be as big as this in a GE. But it would be a big lead

    Good night
    I reckon the 2018 locals might do it.

    In 2018, Labour be defending 2,121 councillors, this year they are only defending 538 councillors.
    That low number thus year is something of a godsend for him, optics wise.
    Yes but a lot of that is down to the fact that county council seats usually cover 2, 3 or 4 district/borough council seats.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    JEREMY Corbyn has reported an MP for harassment who questioned Labour’s woeful media performance.

    The Labour leader’s office reported Neil Coyle to the party’s Chief Whip for disciplinary action after he sent Mr Corbyn a formal email questioning his leadership.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3344804/jeremy-corbyn-reports-one-of-his-own-mps-for-harassment-after-his-leadership-is-questioned/

    Technically speaking isn't what he did the sort of thing you'd expect the whips to be called in on? Questioning leadership and all that?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    OK. This is what I wrote when TSE said there wouldn't be a new thread. (Grr).

    Labour hits its lowest poll rating in opposition since 1915*

    YouGov records just 23% for Labour, and a 21% Con lead

    * probably

    Today’s YouGov marks another low for Corbyn’s Labour party, just two-and-a-half weeks before the key local and mayoral elections.

    The survey for The Times records vote shares of

    Con 44 (+2)
    Lab 23 (-2)
    LD 12 (+1)
    UKIP 10 (-1)

    The 21-point lead ties the poll released by ComRes last week, is the joint-highest for the Conservatives in government since 1988.

    Unlike the ComRes poll, however, which had shares of Con 46 / Lab 25, YouGov have Labour on just 23: a vote share that they’ve not recorded since a single ASL poll just before the 1983 general election (in which they then actually received more than 28%). Indeed, in the history of British political polling – going back to 1943 – Labour has never received a lower Westminster share when on the opposition benches (their all-time low was an 18% share recorded under Gordon Brown in May 2009).

    In all probability, it’s the lowest rating in opposition in even longer. Although we don’t have polls before 1940, we do have a healthy set of by-elections, which give a good indication of public mood.

    In all the inter-war general elections, Labour polled 30% or better (to the nearest point). Furthermore, they made consistent gains in by-elections during the lengthy periods of Tory rule between 1922 and 1939. Given that there were Labour ministers throughout the Asquith/Lloyd George coalitions, that implies that the 23% in today’s YouGov is Labour’s worst share since at least 1915, when there was a far from universal franchise.

    The one possible exception to this might have been following the Labour split in 1931, when the official party might have been reeling from the defection of its leader and prime minister. Unfortunately, there were no useful by-elections at the time so we don’t have any data to work off. Even so, despite the catastrophic loss of seats in the general election later that year, when they were reduced to just 52 MPs, they still received over 30% of ballots cast.

    Put simply, Labour is in all probability at its lowest level of support in opposition for over 100 years. The omens for what this means in 2020 if the party does nothing are obvious – and will be even more obvious come May 5. But will they act and if so, will they make the right call?

    Sorry.
    It's ok. I could always have e-mailed you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    When will the lds get within 10 points of labour?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    kle4 said:

    You lied to us about a new thread! MSM all over.

    AndyJS said:

    Labour members were warned that if they elected Corbyn as leader they would eventually be down to 20% in the polls. They didn't listen.

    They still believe in him (or in the brand, in spite of him). 25% didn't phase them, 23% won't, nor will 20%. Copeland barely phased them. No MPs will jump ship to another party, I guarantee it. It's doubtful if any will even go Indy. If the polls and previous results and the leadership group of the party cannot cause the members to wake up, what will? Will Gorton (which will be easily won) be enough? Greater Manchester? Even Liverpool?

    I don't know how someone who does not support Corbyn but loves the Labour brand is able to still campaign for them right now. I know the MPs moved too soon last summer, but someone needs to take action, this is serious, you cannot just whine about him on twitter.

    It's not about giving up either. Maybe a direct fight now would be lost, but you keep at it, dare them to force you out as you fight for the soul of the party. If it is worth fighting for, then fight for it they must. Maybe the locals won't be as bad as predicted (it would be hard to be worse, so even slightly better will seen fantastic), maybe local mayoral candidates will do well, but even if that is true the situation is bloody awful for them, and they cannot rely on May cocking up. She might. There are plenty of things that could lead to that. But at present they are reliant on that, its reactive.

    Just an outsider's view. I don't believe this big swings, there's no reason for them to have occurred now, and I don't believe the lead would be as big as this in a GE. But it would be a big lead

    Good night
    I reckon the 2018 locals might do it.

    In 2018, Labour be defending 2,121 councillors, this year they are only defending 538 councillors.
    Labour is only defending 538 in England. They're defending another 581 in Wales and 394 in Scotland.
  • JEREMY Corbyn has reported an MP for harassment who questioned Labour’s woeful media performance.

    The Labour leader’s office reported Neil Coyle to the party’s Chief Whip for disciplinary action after he sent Mr Corbyn a formal email questioning his leadership.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3344804/jeremy-corbyn-reports-one-of-his-own-mps-for-harassment-after-his-leadership-is-questioned/

    https://youtu.be/h6BJJe9JV_A
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Just a bit of fun:

    Baxter 650 - Con 400, Lab 159, LD 11 (titters)... Majority 150
    Baxter 600 - Con 377, Lab 146, LD 7 (chortles)... Majority 154
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017

    JEREMY Corbyn has reported an MP for harassment who questioned Labour’s woeful media performance.

    The Labour leader’s office reported Neil Coyle to the party’s Chief Whip for disciplinary action after he sent Mr Corbyn a formal email questioning his leadership.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3344804/jeremy-corbyn-reports-one-of-his-own-mps-for-harassment-after-his-leadership-is-questioned/

    youtu.be/h6BJJe9JV_A
    I think the cast of Carry-On films would be more electable than Jezza's mob.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    JEREMY Corbyn has reported an MP for harassment who questioned Labour’s woeful media performance.

    He's preparing the ground for his lawsuit for constructive dismissal and loss of earnings if they oust him.

    Taking into account the period he would have had as PM if the party had been united plus his post Downing Street book deal and speaking fees, he could take the Labour Party for £10m.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Should be a market on how many lab MPs will sign a letter calling for Jeremy to stand down after the may elections. Could they beat 172? It could be the first thing the new mp for gorton does.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    RobD said:

    Just a bit of fun:

    Baxter 650 - Con 400, Lab 159, LD 11 (titters)... Majority 150
    Baxter 600 - Con 377, Lab 146, LD 7 (chortles)... Majority 154

    Thing is, the LDs would do better. They could well win 25+ with seats in the SW (of England and of London). But Con would offset relative under-performance in the South as a whole with bonus gains in the Midlands, North, Wales and Scotland.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017

    RobD said:

    Just a bit of fun:

    Baxter 650 - Con 400, Lab 159, LD 11 (titters)... Majority 150
    Baxter 600 - Con 377, Lab 146, LD 7 (chortles)... Majority 154

    Thing is, the LDs would do better. They could well win 25+ with seats in the SW (of England and of London). But Con would offset relative under-performance in the South as a whole with bonus gains in the Midlands, North, Wales and Scotland.
    As you imply the Tories would probably win at least two seats in the Midlands and Yorkshire from Labour for every seat they lost to the LDs in the SW and London.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Drones flying into prisons to be examined by new police team

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39616399

    This sounds like the most poncy boots approach possible. Surely the solution is set up a no-fly zone in vicinity of prisons and use the jamming tech that is becoming available.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    More polling.....

    The number of people who say they have been affected by austerity has fallen from more than one in three to one in four.

    Six years ago, 36 per cent of people said they had felt the impact of cuts to public services. This has now fallen to 26 per cent, despite continued reports about the impact of austerity measures.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/16/austerity-number-people-say-have-affected-cuts-has-fallen-since/

    Seems to be the classic "well public services are definitely getting worse, but strangely not in my personal experience."

    The big one that does seem like a risk for the Tories is how much people think the NHS has / is being affected.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    More polling.....

    The number of people who say they have been affected by austerity has fallen from more than one in three to one in four.

    Six years ago, 36 per cent of people said they had felt the impact of cuts to public services. This has now fallen to 26 per cent, despite continued reports about the impact of austerity measures.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/16/austerity-number-people-say-have-affected-cuts-has-fallen-since/

    Seems to be the classic "well public services are definitely getting worse, but strangely not in my personal experience."

    The big one that does seem like a risk for the Tories is how much people think the NHS has / is being affected.

    And that's really what it comes down to. The default background BBC/MSM noise is resolutely and deliberately negative so you've got to have a positive personal experience to counteract that.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited April 2017
    @kle4
    Moderate Labour MPs and members are now caught between a rock and hard place. What is the point of clocking up another failed Leadership challenge when all it will achieve is yet more damage to the Labour brand? The current make up of the Shadow Cabinet, NEC, local associations and Len McClusky embroiled in a Unite Leadership contest means Corbyn is going nowhere until he or his supporters decide it is time for him to step down. Corbyn seems determined to hang around long enough to help enable the election of a suitable successor from his wing of the party, and only then will Corbyn and his team of MPs supporters then see it as job done. The last thing they want is to see a situation whereby it will ever be easy for the Labour party to ever elect another Tony Blair who might stand up to their faction of the party and drag them onto the centre ground of politics where they might actually outbid the Conservatives and win power again on those terms.

    And the irony is that its becoming increasingly obvious that while Corbyn is certainly not enjoying his wider role and responsibilities as the main Leader of the Oppositon, he has devoloped the hide of a rhinorceros when it comes to weathering his unpopularity within the PLP and the wider electorate in the polls as long as he attracts a few hundred thousand like minded supporters to the Labour party. Right now the Labour party has a Leader who doesn't care that he does not have the confidence or respect of the majority of his PLP, never mind the wider electorate because all that matters is holding power within the Labour party rather winning power in a GE. And that is why they cannot remove him untill he chooses to go despite the dire position of the party and Corbyn's personal rating in the polls.

    The Labour party will embark on a third Leadership contest in this Parliament, but it will be far too late for the moderates to recover enough to elect a steadying hand who might instill enough discipline as an Opposition and mount a recovery in the polls with the electorate to hold onto its current seat share. Jeremy Corbyn will stand down before the next GE, and because he has neither the desire or the temperament to last a week in the heat of the media onslaught during a GE campaign.

    The current Leadership election rules and make up of the membership and Union Leaders makes the chances of a more moderate Labour MP winning against Corbyn or his chosen successor slim. Add in the fact that the PLP totally failed to produce or coalesce around one strong candidate who might produce a different outcome and the boundary changes due to reduction of MPs, its now safe to say the Labour party are currently screwed as an electoral force and will face losing more seats at the next GE. Despite all that, I don't see any Labour MPs defecting to other parties, but I do see the possibility of more by-elections caused by Labour MPs leaving Parliament if the right job opportunities arise outside politics.
  • We are now almost two years into the current 5 year Parliamentary term yet STILL there appears to be no clear indication as to when, if at all, the proposed 600 HoC seat boundaries are to be introduced. Does anyone know what the timetable is for this?
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790

    Drones flying into prisons to be examined by new police team

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39616399

    This sounds like the most poncy boots approach possible. Surely the solution is set up a no-fly zone in vicinity of prisons and use the jamming tech that is becoming available.

    Or put up a net or something
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    We are now almost two years into the current 5 year Parliamentary term yet STILL there appears to be no clear indication as to when, if at all, the proposed 600 HoC seat boundaries are to be introduced. Does anyone know what the timetable is for this?

    Looks like 2018, and that they are sticking to the (new) schedule, with the publication last year of the provisional recommendations.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    JohnLoony said:

    Drones flying into prisons to be examined by new police team

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39616399

    This sounds like the most poncy boots approach possible. Surely the solution is set up a no-fly zone in vicinity of prisons and use the jamming tech that is becoming available.

    Or put up a net or something
    Sometimes the best solutions are just about using basic common sense. :)
  • davidthecondavidthecon Posts: 165
    I think Labour can still make it with a core vote strategy:

    1). David the android from Prometheus. (Postal vote from half a billion light years away)
    2). The entire cast of The Walking dead
    3). Lilly Allen and her merry band of refugee 'children.
    4). The Cybermen block vote.
    5). Daleks, (although how they hold the pencil to vote is debatable)
    6). Tony Blair, (ok that's a lost vote)
    7). Kim jon fat bastard being the electoral commissioner.
    8). Nope they are well and truly f**ked.
    9). Bobaflounce if he is on or off this week-get a job you layabout benefit scrounger.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    Drones flying into prisons to be examined by new police team

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39616399

    This sounds like the most poncy boots approach possible. Surely the solution is set up a no-fly zone in vicinity of prisons and use the jamming tech that is becoming available.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goalkeeper_CIWS :smiley:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited April 2017
    fitalass said:

    Jeremy Corbyn will stand down before the next GE, and because he has neither the desire or the temperament to last a week in the heat of the media onslaught during a GE campaign

    He'll be ok. Given he takes Time Off in In Lieu when he has to work Sundays he'll probably go on holiday for a week in the middle of the campaign
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Lab on 23%. That is the lowest for quite some time?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    We are now almost two years into the current 5 year Parliamentary term yet STILL there appears to be no clear indication as to when, if at all, the proposed 600 HoC seat boundaries are to be introduced. Does anyone know what the timetable is for this?

    Isn't the report due to be laid before the House in 2018? There's a set timetable for this sort of thing. I believe the Boundary Commission is beavering away in the background
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    kle4 said:

    When will the lds get within 10 points of labour?

    The LDs will tick upwards when some negative aspect of Brexit comes to people's attention.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    We are now almost two years into the current 5 year Parliamentary term yet STILL there appears to be no clear indication as to when, if at all, the proposed 600 HoC seat boundaries are to be introduced. Does anyone know what the timetable is for this?

    More consultation just finished, the mapmakers are now beavering away. Final recommendations will go before parliament in 2018, and we will be lucky if they are published before Christmas, I believe early 2018 is the most likely.
  • IanB2 said:

    We are now almost two years into the current 5 year Parliamentary term yet STILL there appears to be no clear indication as to when, if at all, the proposed 600 HoC seat boundaries are to be introduced. Does anyone know what the timetable is for this?

    More consultation just finished, the mapmakers are now beavering away. Final recommendations will go before parliament in 2018, and we will be lucky if they are published before Christmas, I believe early 2018 is the most likely.
    It really makes one wonder how there was ever the remotest prospect of such changes having been implemented in the last Parliament when, fully five years ago, The Tories then accused the LibDems of reneging on a deal to legislate the then boundary changes in exchange for the Yellow Team getting their referendum on PR.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Good evening, my fellow PB Monkeys!

    Spent the day at Monkey World in Dorset :)

    Should @Sunil leave mankind or remain with the planet of the apes?

    LEAVE - 52%
    REMAIN - 48%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited April 2017

    IanB2 said:

    We are now almost two years into the current 5 year Parliamentary term yet STILL there appears to be no clear indication as to when, if at all, the proposed 600 HoC seat boundaries are to be introduced. Does anyone know what the timetable is for this?

    More consultation just finished, the mapmakers are now beavering away. Final recommendations will go before parliament in 2018, and we will be lucky if they are published before Christmas, I believe early 2018 is the most likely.
    It really makes one wonder how there was ever the remotest prospect of such changes having been implemented in the last Parliament when, fully five years ago, The Tories then accused the LibDems of reneging on a deal to legislate the then boundary changes in exchange for the Yellow Team getting their referendum on PR.
    Yeah, it's a long process, and not an easy job, as I am sure doesn't need spelling out for PB readers.

    The most interesting question is whether there are Conservative MPs sufficiently appalled by the outcome in their own localities to vote against the Bill, regardless of wider political advantage?

    The biggest difference from previous reviews is the much tighter and stricter numerical criterion for electorate size which, together with the almost-rule of always using wards as building blocks, is guaranteed to throw up some apparently absurd individual proposed seats. I spent a lot of time working with the online modelling tool last year, and the trade-offs it forces to come up with proposals for a whole area that all met the criteria were severe.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    AndyJS said:
    it would be wonderful to see a Labour civil war.. a real popcorn event.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    AndyJS said:
    it would be wonderful to see a Labour civil war.. a real popcorn event.
    What would you call the period since Jezza's ascent - a honeymoon ?!?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2017
    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:
    it would be wonderful to see a Labour civil war.. a real popcorn event.
    What would you call the period since Jezza's ascent - a honeymoon ?!?
    In marriage terminology, its gone way past that, gone are the days of a loving relationship, that lasted a few weeks, then the bitching started, no nookie, no happy times, the loathing of the in laws, two threatened divorces and now its the time when the pondering of divorce on grounds of irretrievable breakdown occurs....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:
    it would be wonderful to see a Labour civil war.. a real popcorn event.
    What would you call the period since Jezza's ascent - a honeymoon ?!?
    In marriage terminology, its gone way past that, gone are the days of a loving relationship, that lasted a few weeks, then the bitching started, no nookie, no happy times, the loathing of the in laws, two threatened divorces and now its the time when the pondering of divorce on grounds of irretrievable breakdown occurs....
    Call the lawyers .... :smile:
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    JohnLoony said:

    Drones flying into prisons to be examined by new police team

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39616399

    This sounds like the most poncy boots approach possible. Surely the solution is set up a no-fly zone in vicinity of prisons and use the jamming tech that is becoming available.

    Or put up a net or something
    Lets hope those barking dogs deter them
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    Stuff like this cant be good for US tourism:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/16/baby-us-embassy-interview-visa-esta-terrorist

    I also wonder if the baby is now on some list somewhere​ and will face problems in future?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Woops! There's a hole in the floor. It had to happen.

    What is a bit ironic is that after 2 years of not very much Labour has starting producing some real policy ideas in the last week or so. Not very good policies, in my view, but distinct and according to the polling relatively popular. Certainly more than 23% popular.

    Corbyn is now at the stage where every interview is going to be, "yes, but when are you standing down?" The indications are that he will not respond to that well.

    Meanwhile, are Opinium re-evaluating their methodology (again)?
  • rkrkrk said:

    Stuff like this cant be good for US tourism:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/16/baby-us-embassy-interview-visa-esta-terrorist

    I also wonder if the baby is now on some list somewhere​ and will face problems in future?

    The fact that there is even an "Are you a Terrorist" box to tick is what tickles me.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    DavidL said:

    Woops! There's a hole in the floor. It had to happen.

    What is a bit ironic is that after 2 years of not very much Labour has starting producing some real policy ideas in the last week or so. Not very good policies, in my view, but distinct and according to the polling relatively popular. Certainly more than 23% popular.

    Corbyn is now at the stage where every interview is going to be, "yes, but when are you standing down?" The indications are that he will not respond to that well.

    Meanwhile, are Opinium re-evaluating their methodology (again)?

    Its popcorn all the way, I would love to see Corbyn really lose his cool, its been brewing up for a while, and there have been previous indications of loss of control.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Morning all, what a lovely day to wake up to another 21% lead, how high does it have to get before the Labour membership wake up to the fact that while they may love having such an ideological and crap leader, the rest of the country don't?

    What's worse is that unless Corbyn gets literally hit by a bus, he'll pretty much be able to name his successor - so how do we get to a Startmer or Benn, someone that might deny the Tories a stonking majority next time out and provide a decent opposition in the meantime?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited April 2017

    rkrkrk said:

    Stuff like this cant be good for US tourism:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/16/baby-us-embassy-interview-visa-esta-terrorist

    I also wonder if the baby is now on some list somewhere​ and will face problems in future?

    The fact that there is even an "Are you a Terrorist" box to tick is what tickles me.
    That's because if in the sole and exclusive judgement of the CBP if you have lied on your form they can deport you without the right of appeal.

    edit: the story appears to be "I made a mistake and the US wouldn't bend the rules for me because I'm special".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Oh, and well done to Mr Dancer for his Vettel tip yesterday, with hindsight it was obviously good value, Lewis picking up a penalty and coming up just short of a cracking finish.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all, what a lovely day to wake up to another 21% lead, how high does it have to get before the Labour membership wake up to the fact that while they may love having such an ideological and crap leader, the rest of the country don't?

    What's worse is that unless Corbyn gets literally hit by a bus, he'll pretty much be able to name his successor - so how do we get to a Startmer or Benn, someone that might deny the Tories a stonking majority next time out and provide a decent opposition in the meantime?

    How can Corbyn name his successor?
    If he could - he would have gone by now.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    GeoffM said:

    More polling.....

    The number of people who say they have been affected by austerity has fallen from more than one in three to one in four.

    Six years ago, 36 per cent of people said they had felt the impact of cuts to public services. This has now fallen to 26 per cent, despite continued reports about the impact of austerity measures.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/16/austerity-number-people-say-have-affected-cuts-has-fallen-since/

    Seems to be the classic "well public services are definitely getting worse, but strangely not in my personal experience."

    The big one that does seem like a risk for the Tories is how much people think the NHS has / is being affected.

    And that's really what it comes down to. The default background BBC/MSM noise is resolutely and deliberately negative so you've got to have a positive personal experience to counteract that.
    Yes, because no-one could possibly notice cuts to services unless pointed out by Mail and Telegraph agitprop.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Two things to think about:

    1) What will the Don't Knows in fact decide to do? Pollsters make assumptions about this but they can easily be wrong. My guess is that the lower Labour go, the more likely Don't Knows will ultimately break for Labour, as disgusted loyal Labour supporters vote to keep the party going.

    2) Conversely, plenty of voters aren't really thinking about this now. When they focus on the choice, are they going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour? He's not an attractive proposition for most voters.

    I think 2) outweighs 1) by quite a lot. So I expect Labour's polling could get markedly worse even from these levels.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Stuff like this cant be good for US tourism:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/16/baby-us-embassy-interview-visa-esta-terrorist

    I also wonder if the baby is now on some list somewhere​ and will face problems in future?

    The fact that there is even an "Are you a Terrorist" box to tick is what tickles me.
    That's because if in the sole and exclusive judgement of the CBP if you have lied on your form they can deport you without the right of appeal.

    edit: the story appears to be "I made a mistake and the US wouldn't bend the rules for me because I'm special".
    If the baby turns out to be a terrorist - perhaps a devilish plot to make Americans rename diapers as a nappy, will the baby be allowed to stay ?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Two things to think about:

    1) What will the Don't Knows in fact decide to do? Pollsters make assumptions about this but they can easily be wrong. My guess is that the lower Labour go, the more likely Don't Knows will ultimately break for Labour, as disgusted loyal Labour supporters vote to keep the party going.

    2) Conversely, plenty of voters aren't really thinking about this now. When they focus on the choice, are they going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour? He's not an attractive proposition for most voters.

    I think 2) outweighs 1) by quite a lot. So I expect Labour's polling could get markedly worse even from these levels.

    To what level, sub 20% ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Two things to think about:

    1) What will the Don't Knows in fact decide to do? Pollsters make assumptions about this but they can easily be wrong. My guess is that the lower Labour go, the more likely Don't Knows will ultimately break for Labour, as disgusted loyal Labour supporters vote to keep the party going.

    2) Conversely, plenty of voters aren't really thinking about this now. When they focus on the choice, are they going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour? He's not an attractive proposition for most voters.

    I think 2) outweighs 1) by quite a lot. So I expect Labour's polling could get markedly worse even from these levels.

    To what level, sub 20% ?
    I agree with the OP and think it follows that during a GE campaign Labour's rating could fall to 20% (due to 2.) and then outturn an actual vote in the low-20s (due to 1.).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Two things to think about:

    1) What will the Don't Knows in fact decide to do? Pollsters make assumptions about this but they can easily be wrong. My guess is that the lower Labour go, the more likely Don't Knows will ultimately break for Labour, as disgusted loyal Labour supporters vote to keep the party going.

    2) Conversely, plenty of voters aren't really thinking about this now. When they focus on the choice, are they going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour? He's not an attractive proposition for most voters.

    I think 2) outweighs 1) by quite a lot. So I expect Labour's polling could get markedly worse even from these levels.

    To what level, sub 20% ?
    I wouldn't like to speculate. Neither France nor the Netherlands are encouraging for Labour. If the dam breaks, it might shatter. It probably won't though.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Clearly herding
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited April 2017
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, I can assure you, it wasn't obvious before the race :p

    My wondrous post-race ramble, including an extremely exciting bar chart *and* a line graph, is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis-2017.html

    Edited extra bit: on-topic: nonsense. Chairman Corbyn is well on the way to ensuring glorious success for the People's Revolution. His so-called 'polling problem' is simply a reflection of the decadence inherent in democracy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited April 2017
    Too obvious for a 'JC will rise again' joke?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Two things to think about:

    1) What will the Don't Knows in fact decide to do? Pollsters make assumptions about this but they can easily be wrong. My guess is that the lower Labour go, the more likely Don't Knows will ultimately break for Labour, as disgusted loyal Labour supporters vote to keep the party going.

    2) Conversely, plenty of voters aren't really thinking about this now. When they focus on the choice, are they going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour? He's not an attractive proposition for most voters.

    I think 2) outweighs 1) by quite a lot. So I expect Labour's polling could get markedly worse even from these levels.

    The best leader ratings certainly seem to support your 1). It would appear that all Lab need to do is find a halfway credible leader and those pent up DKs would break to whomever that is
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    at what point will we be confident of Lib Dem / UKIP crossover having genuinely occurred?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    TOPPING said:

    Two things to think about:

    1) What will the Don't Knows in fact decide to do? Pollsters make assumptions about this but they can easily be wrong. My guess is that the lower Labour go, the more likely Don't Knows will ultimately break for Labour, as disgusted loyal Labour supporters vote to keep the party going.

    2) Conversely, plenty of voters aren't really thinking about this now. When they focus on the choice, are they going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour? He's not an attractive proposition for most voters.

    I think 2) outweighs 1) by quite a lot. So I expect Labour's polling could get markedly worse even from these levels.

    The best leader ratings certainly seem to support your 1). It would appear that all Lab need to do is find a halfway credible leader and those pent up DKs would break to whomever that is
    Yes. Whether they could hold onto them would be another matter, but initially there seem people who are waiting to return, and who will probably break for labour to ensure party survival if that is the choice.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2017
    What about McCluskey? Surely he is the main factor in determining Corbyn's future.

    No McCluskey = no Corbyn?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    That's approximately a 15% swing from the YouGovs four years ago:

    And a bigger lead than the Conservatives had before the 2009 elections (Labour's lowest vote in any election).

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention

    For those who like local by-elections it matches the swing in Middlesbrough least week.

    Postal voting for this year's local elections will begin this week.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    MrsB said:

    at what point will we be confident of Lib Dem / UKIP crossover having genuinely occurred?

    when the LD leaflet bar charts tell us it is so ;)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    OK. This is what I wrote when TSE said there wouldn't be a new thread. (Grr).

    Labour hits its lowest poll rating in opposition since 1915*

    YouGov records just 23% for Labour, and a 21% Con lead

    * probably

    Today’s YouGov marks another low for Corbyn’s Labour party, just two-and-a-half weeks before the key local and mayoral elections.

    The survey for The Times records vote shares of

    Con 44 (+2)
    Lab 23 (-2)
    LD 12 (+1)
    UKIP 10 (-1)

    The 21-point lead ties the poll released by ComRes last week, is the joint-highest for the Conservatives in government since 1988.

    Unlike the ComRes poll, however, which had shares of Con 46 / Lab 25, YouGov have Labour on just 23: a vote share that they’ve not recorded when out of government since a single ASL poll just before the 1983 general election (in which they then actually received more than 28%). Indeed, in the history of British political polling – going back to 1943 – Labour has never received a lower Westminster share when on the opposition benches (their all-time low was an 18% share recorded under Gordon Brown in May 2009).

    In all probability, it’s the lowest rating in opposition in even longer. Although we don’t have polls before 1940, we do have a healthy set of by-elections, which give a good indication of public mood.

    In all the inter-war general elections, Labour polled 30% or better (to the nearest point). Furthermore, they made consistent gains in by-elections during the lengthy periods of Tory rule between 1922 and 1939. Given that there were Labour ministers throughout the Asquith/Lloyd George coalitions, that implies that the 23% in today’s YouGov is Labour’s worst share since at least 1915, when there was a far from universal franchise.

    The one possible exception to this might have been following the Labour split in 1931, when the official party might have been reeling from the defection of its leader and prime minister. Unfortunately, there were no useful by-elections at the time so we don’t have any data to work off. Even so, despite the catastrophic loss of seats in the general election later that year, when they were reduced to just 52 MPs, they still received over 30% of ballots cast.

    Put simply, Labour is in all probability at its lowest level of support in opposition for over 100 years. The omens for what this means in 2020 if the party does nothing are obvious – and will be even more obvious come May 5. But will they act and if so, will they make the right call?

    Are you still expecting Labour to lose only 50 councillors in England next month ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    If the polls are right (quite a big if these days), then Labour should be in full emergency mode. I doubt even Corbyn of McDonnell can ignore it. We'll see how they do in May.

    If May 4 backs up the polls there will be changes. My hunch is the picture will be more complex and provide just enough wriggle room.

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited April 2017

    I think 2) outweighs 1) by quite a lot. So I expect Labour's polling could get markedly worse even from these levels.

    3) how much more damage will be suffered when the largely inattentive voters start paying attention to an election campaign stuffed full of unfortunate photos of the Labour leadership in a range of ingratiating poses with various Irish Republicans, Islamists, Trotskyites and apologists for terrorism, and are linked with video of them expressing support or at least sympathy with the same ?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Jonathan said:

    If the polls are right (quite a big if these days), then Labour should be in full emergency mode. I doubt even Corbyn of McDonnell can ignore it. We'll see how they do in May.

    If May 4 backs up the polls there will be changes. My hunch is the picture will be more complex and provide just enough wriggle room.

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    Can you hear the call, David Miliband?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    I think 2) outweighs 1) by quite a lot. So I expect Labour's polling could get markedly worse even from these levels.

    3) how much more damage will be suffered when the largely inattentive voters start paying attention to an election campaign stuffed full of unfortunate photos of the Labour leadership in a range of ingratiating poses with various Irish Republicans, Islamists and apologists for terrorism, and are linked with video of them expressing support or at least sympathy with the same ?

    3a) if the impression that Lab are losers is noticed by those largely inattentive voters.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Jonathan said:

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    When ever that figure is searched for, the only names that people usually manage to come up with are Postie (who doesnt want the job) and Watson (who repels voters at 100yds).

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2017
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls are right (quite a big if these days), then Labour should be in full emergency mode. I doubt even Corbyn of McDonnell can ignore it. We'll see how they do in May.

    If May 4 backs up the polls there will be changes. My hunch is the picture will be more complex and provide just enough wriggle room.

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    Can you hear the call, David Miliband?
    Bananaman.. nah.. been out of it too long.. needs to find a seat.. might lose if parachuted in.. then what..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls are right (quite a big if these days), then Labour should be in full emergency mode. I doubt even Corbyn of McDonnell can ignore it. We'll see how they do in May.

    If May 4 backs up the polls there will be changes. My hunch is the picture will be more complex and provide just enough wriggle room.

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    Can you hear the call, David Miliband?
    @Jonathan said "likeable"!
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls are right (quite a big if these days), then Labour should be in full emergency mode. I doubt even Corbyn of McDonnell can ignore it. We'll see how they do in May.

    If May 4 backs up the polls there will be changes. My hunch is the picture will be more complex and provide just enough wriggle room.

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    Can you hear the call, David Miliband?
    Bananaman.. nah.. been out of it too long.. needs to find a seat.. might lose if parachuted in.. then what..
    and is nothing like as good as everyone remembers when viewing him through their rosy spectacles.

    Plus of course the minor detail that he doesnt appear to want the job, since he just put in his application for a plum job in the UN (Director of the UN Development Program, 8000 staff, 5bn a year budget, nice office in New York, lots of travel around the world looking important etc)
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls are right (quite a big if these days), then Labour should be in full emergency mode. I doubt even Corbyn of McDonnell can ignore it. We'll see how they do in May.

    If May 4 backs up the polls there will be changes. My hunch is the picture will be more complex and provide just enough wriggle room.

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    Can you hear the call, David Miliband?
    The best option for Labour would be if Al the postie could be prevailed upon to take it on a short-term basis. Such is the dire position of the party at the moment that I think he could finally be persuaded.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2017
    Jonathan said:

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    It cannot be done. Militant / Momentum's job is to purify the party, not to break bread with unbelievers.

    It is a Kinnock style leader that is needed to purge the loony left, but hopefully one who will do the job right this time
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jonathan said:

    If the polls are right (quite a big if these days), then Labour should be in full emergency mode. I doubt even Corbyn of McDonnell can ignore it. We'll see how they do in May.

    If May 4 backs up the polls there will be changes. My hunch is the picture will be more complex and provide just enough wriggle room.

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    Jon Ashworth?

    Tom Watson could be useful as Witchfinder general in expelling the Trots. This is an essential precursor to Labour becoming electable.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2017

    Jonathan said:

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    It cannot be done. Militant / Momentum's job is to purify the party, nit to break bread with unbelievers.

    It is a Kinnock style leader that is needed to purge the loony left, but hopefully one who will do the job right this time
    They need a new brand.. How about "New Labour", sounds sexy.. Who might lead that.. Tony Blair? ;)
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920
    edited April 2017

    Jonathan said:

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    It cannot be done. Militant / Momentum's job is to purify the party, not to break bread with unbelievers.

    It is a Kinnock style leader that is needed to purge the loony left, but hopefully one who will do the job right this time
    Kinnock did do the job properly. He can't be held accountable for the lunacy that let them back in again.

    Edit. Though it has to be said that he did endorse Ed Miliband's campaign for the leadership (in contravention of the convention that former leaders remain neutral in leadership contests).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Two things to think about:

    1) What will the Don't Knows in fact decide to do? Pollsters make assumptions about this but they can easily be wrong. My guess is that the lower Labour go, the more likely Don't Knows will ultimately break for Labour, as disgusted loyal Labour supporters vote to keep the party going.

    2) Conversely, plenty of voters aren't really thinking about this now. When they focus on the choice, are they going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour? He's not an attractive proposition for most voters.

    I think 2) outweighs 1) by quite a lot. So I expect Labour's polling could get markedly worse even from these levels.

    To what level, sub 20% ?
    I played around on Electoral Calculus a while back. Labour hast to get to the lower teens to be below 100 seats, perhaps 10% to cease to be the official opposition.

    So 2020 should not yet be an extinction event in anticipation.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls are right (quite a big if these days), then Labour should be in full emergency mode. I doubt even Corbyn of McDonnell can ignore it. We'll see how they do in May.

    If May 4 backs up the polls there will be changes. My hunch is the picture will be more complex and provide just enough wriggle room.

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    Can you hear the call, David Miliband?
    The best option for Labour would be if Al the postie could be prevailed upon to take it on a short-term basis. Such is the dire position of the party at the moment that I think he could finally be persuaded.
    Not sure he will have Jezza's support after Postie said of him : "He is totally incompetent and incapable of being the leader of a political party and he knows it".
  • DavidL said:

    Woops! There's a hole in the floor. It had to happen.

    What is a bit ironic is that after 2 years of not very much Labour has starting producing some real policy ideas in the last week or so. Not very good policies, in my view, but distinct and according to the polling relatively popular. Certainly more than 23% popular.

    Corbyn is now at the stage where every interview is going to be, "yes, but when are you standing down?" The indications are that he will not respond to that well.

    Meanwhile, are Opinium re-evaluating their methodology (again)?

    My friends at Opinium are quite keen to remind me that they got the London Mayor and EU Referendum spot on.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls are right (quite a big if these days), then Labour should be in full emergency mode. I doubt even Corbyn of McDonnell can ignore it. We'll see how they do in May.

    If May 4 backs up the polls there will be changes. My hunch is the picture will be more complex and provide just enough wriggle room.

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    Can you hear the call, David Miliband?
    The best option for Labour would be if Al the postie could be prevailed upon to take it on a short-term basis. Such is the dire position of the party at the moment that I think he could finally be persuaded.
    Not sure he will have Jezza's support after Postie said of him : "He is totally incompetent and incapable of being the leader of a political party and he knows it".
    Yes, of course he won't. No credible alternative would have JC's support.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls are right (quite a big if these days), then Labour should be in full emergency mode. I doubt even Corbyn of McDonnell can ignore it. We'll see how they do in May.

    If May 4 backs up the polls there will be changes. My hunch is the picture will be more complex and provide just enough wriggle room.

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    Can you hear the call, David Miliband?
    The best option for Labour would be if Al the postie could be prevailed upon to take it on a short-term basis. Such is the dire position of the party at the moment that I think he could finally be persuaded.
    Not sure he will have Jezza's support after Postie said of him : "He is totally incompetent and incapable of being the leader of a political party and he knows it".
    Nice chap, Alan Johnson, but can be too inclined to play to what he sees as the gallery.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    DavidL said:

    Woops! There's a hole in the floor. It had to happen.

    What is a bit ironic is that after 2 years of not very much Labour has starting producing some real policy ideas in the last week or so. Not very good policies, in my view, but distinct and according to the polling relatively popular. Certainly more than 23% popular.

    Corbyn is now at the stage where every interview is going to be, "yes, but when are you standing down?" The indications are that he will not respond to that well.

    Meanwhile, are Opinium re-evaluating their methodology (again)?

    My friends at Opinium are quite keen to remind me that they got the London Mayor and EU Referendum spot on.
    Good for them. It is a bit early to laugh at their results when there's no indication which is right.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2017
    Morning all.

    (23% ) - Oh dear, at this rate we could see a Labour – Lib Dem cross-over before GE2020...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Two things to think about:

    1) What will the Don't Knows in fact decide to do? Pollsters make assumptions about this but they can easily be wrong. My guess is that the lower Labour go, the more likely Don't Knows will ultimately break for Labour, as disgusted loyal Labour supporters vote to keep the party going.

    2) Conversely, plenty of voters aren't really thinking about this now. When they focus on the choice, are they going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour? He's not an attractive proposition for most voters.

    I think 2) outweighs 1) by quite a lot. So I expect Labour's polling could get markedly worse even from these levels.

    To what level, sub 20% ?
    I played around on Electoral Calculus a while back. Labour hast to get to the lower teens to be below 100 seats, perhaps 10% to cease to be the official opposition.

    So 2020 should not yet be an extinction event in anticipation.
    Although it is worth bearing in mind that models based on the straight-swing assumption must become more unreliable the greater the shift in opinion. The model was invented for 1950s/60s politics with just two large parties and small shifts of opinion back and forth. It continues to be used because it is easy, rather than accurate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Morning all.

    (23% ) - Oh dear, at this rate we could see a Labour – Lib Dem cross-over before GE2020...

    That depends entirely on whether the LibDems can get a significant upward boost - possibly from a shock by-election win, but more likely if people find out there is an aspect to Brexit that significantly affects living standards or the ease of travelling abroad.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    IanB2 said:

    Morning all.

    (23% ) - Oh dear, at this rate we could see a Labour – Lib Dem cross-over before GE2020...

    That depends entirely on whether the LibDems can get a significant upward boost - possibly from a shock by-election win, but more likely if people find out there is an aspect to Brexit that significantly affects living standards or the ease of travelling abroad.
    if only Farron wasnt such a tit.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Jonathan said:

    If it is end of days there is only one way out. A likeable John Smith figure, capable of having both factions in the cabinet. Hmmm.

    It cannot be done. Militant / Momentum's job is to purify the party, not to break bread with unbelievers.

    It is a Kinnock style leader that is needed to purge the loony left, but hopefully one who will do the job right this time
    Kinnock did do the job properly. He can't be held accountable for the lunacy that let them back in again.

    Edit. Though it has to be said that he did endorse Ed Miliband's campaign for the leadership (in contravention of the convention that former leaders remain neutral in leadership contests).
    Corbyn entered Parliament in 1983 and so was an MP the entire time Kinnock was leader. He was never expelled by Kinnock despite being an infamous Trot.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    FPT:
    Pulpstar said:

    Makes you wonder what's the bloody point of Brexit?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/853720195092930560

    What in the actual ?!

    Are people selling coffee actually net economic contributors when all costs have been taken into account.
    I don't, I mean I can't get my head round this. There's never been many near where I've lived mainly because people don't like to buy shite overpriced coffee.
    I'm a remainer and I don't see the point of this. Its not as essential job. Is this some sort of London thing ?
    Its a London thing.

    86% of retail, hotel and restaurant workers are British across the UK as a whole:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/migrationandthelabourmarketuk/2016#what-industry-and-occupations-did-non-uk-nationals-work-in

    Yet we're told all the hotels, bars and restaurants in London are staffed by immigrants.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Morning all.

    (23% ) - Oh dear, at this rate we could see a Labour – Lib Dem cross-over before GE2020...

    That is what could cause the dam to break. If the Lib Dems look like they seriously have crossed-over with Labour then that could escalate very, very quickly.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    The YouGov poll of Labour members in March found 47% saying Corbyn should go if the Tory poll lead hit 20%, with 40% thinking that he should stay:
    http://election-data.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Election-Data-Labour-Members-Poll.xlsx
This discussion has been closed.